Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Good Continuation
Episode Date: July 28, 2022Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.comGary Kaltbaum is a registered investment advisor with more than 30 years of experience in the markets. He is owner and president of Kaltbaum Capital ...Management, a financial investment advisory firm headquartered in Orlando, Florida. He is a Fox News Channel Business Contributor regularly appearing on Fox News Channel and the Fox Business Network. Gary is the author of the book “The Investors Edge” and is also the host of a nationally syndicated radio show with the same title “Investors Edge” which is broadcast on numerous stations across the U.S. The show is also available on demand and airs live 6-7 pm EST Monday-Friday.
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Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary
Carlbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen,
happy that you're listening. It is Thursday, July 28, 2022.
coming to you from my office in Barcelona, Spain.
Now, of course, when we say my office in Barcelona, Spain,
I do not have a Colpom Capital Management Office in Barcelona, Spain,
but in front of me, where I am sitting, I have my three big screens
and a fourth right behind it doing our thing.
Simple as that.
So we call it our office anywhere we go.
We have lots to talk about.
today, lots to cover, and pretty much we only have good news for you on the markets itself.
Not so good news on the recession front because it did come out as recession.
And we're going to strip away a lot of the noise that you're hearing out there,
even though we don't have, we're not even watching TV here, even though I can turn on,
you know what they have here, CNN International.
No thanks.
But really, nothing but good news.
So we're going to get going right out of the get-go.
If you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed.
You can email me, Just Be Nice.
That's pretty simple, right?
And we'll leave it just at that for now.
So, I don't know about 10 days ago.
We just simply said to you, the market's acting better.
the lows seem to be holding, but we're entering earnings season and we have to deal with the central bank.
And, you know, we think of that central bank earth as well as the rest.
They're lucky to have us.
As we entered yesterday, which pretty much was to the Fed, the markets had been better, but nothing.
sensational, nothing I can yell and scream about, but better. The up days were more than the
down days, and we were setting better highs. The major indices, which are without a doubt of
import, our import, got above what I talk about all the time, and that is their 50-day moving
averages. And what is that? What do I always say? Below it, only bad can happen. Above it,
only good can happen. It doesn't mean bad happens, but only bad can happen. Simple as that.
Same on the upside. Only good can happen. And what we're simply saying is when you're above it,
you can't be in a bare market.
When you're below it, you can't be in a bull market.
That is the physicality of the markets.
It's a fact.
It's not an opinion.
It's how markets work.
When we tell you we follow a roadmap that works in the market.
We're serious about that.
We mean business about that.
And if you've been fired,
following us, works pretty well. We broke back above the 50 day recently. Simple as that.
Broke back above it. But that doesn't mean everything's well and good. You got what we call
to stick the landing. And what do we simply mean by that? Just because you break back above it
doesn't mean you're going to get going and does not mean you're not just going to head back down.
I can tell you, I don't know, about eight weeks ago, let's take that back to April.
We were back above it.
But we were in doubt.
We were in doubt because there was really no leadership.
We did our normal.
We bought into it a little bit.
We probed.
Things started to work.
And then we knew because on April 21st, big distribution showed up, big selling.
and that was the day we knew we're heading back down again to what extent we don't know
and we ended up with a couple of more icks to the downside i c s
well this go round we've rallied up on tuesday just tuesday had a pretty bad day
finished the lows of the day and then we get mr powell we don't care
We don't care what he said. We don't care why he said it. We care that the market shoved to the upside and pretty darn well. Broadening out the market and potentially sticking the landing, meaning, hey, this go round, it's going to hold. Which means better opportunity for the market. What else did we notice? Oh, Microsoft reports crappy.
numbers, stock goes up. What else do we notice? Goldman Sachs, what, a couple of weeks ago,
reports, crappy numbers, stock goes up nicely. And when I say crappy, I mean crappy on Goldman Sachs.
So on top of the indices moving above, bad news bought up, Google's numbers, not good,
bought up. So that's what we mean when we say the complexions change.
for the better.
And then we got today.
Now, it's kind of normal.
If you have a bad day off the Fed, the next day is going to be a good day.
If you have a good day off the Fed, the next day is going to be bad day.
And we opened up hot today.
And guess what?
Market tanked until 11 a.m.
And what did the market do the rest of the day?
Boom.
To the upside.
But for me.
it's not just what the market did today it's what in the market what's in the market and what that
did today to me that's of import because you can't have a market rallying up on a few things you need
broad market moves, the ability for me to come on this show and say, broad market move.
And since November of last year, and seriously from the first week of January, the broad market
has been terrible.
It's been bare markets.
The definition of bare markets.
And normally, bare markets are two steps down, one step up.
up. We were getting two step, three steps down, one step up. And we hardly change the stance.
I believe a couple of times we said to you, and maybe we're going to get a countertrend rally.
We'll see where it takes us. All failed. This one's better. This one has the ability to stick.
Bad news is being bought up. And a couple of important points.
and parts of the equation are going on right now.
Besides that.
And I can't say this any better,
but to give you date and action.
Remember, we do believe one plus one equals two in the market.
We believe in cause and effect in the market.
We believe there's a rhyme and a reason for market.
And everything we take out of the market is the evidence the market gives.
So we'll start off by saying, in the first week of January of this year, the first week of January this year, the 10-year yields skyrocketed, shot out of a cannon straight up.
First week of this year.
Guess what happened the first week of this year?
year to coincide the broad market topped to the week to go even further to the day and we shot up like i've
never seen the 10-year yield which is the cost of capital the cost of mortgages one four point four percent
the 3.5 in six months up next or what just happened.
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
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Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist,
Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues,
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache
every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you
should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can put it.
probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much
more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than it.
So first off, the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com.
That's Jim Roerback, one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man.
You're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.
Go check it out.
Investment-mottles.com.
This morning, it was announced we're in recession.
Whoa, we're in recession.
The markets are going to crash.
The markets are going to get blasted.
We're in recession.
Dow up another 332, S&P up 48, NASDAQ 130, NASDAQ 116.
What?
How can that be?
Well, let's do it again.
In January, the 10-year yield skyrocketed right at the beginning of the year.
January 3rd was the big move that started it off.
went from
1-5
to topping out
recently at 3-5
that is a
gargantuan move in short order
the cost of everything
going up, mortgages, you name it
on top of that
commodities
energy
but I want to stick with interest rates
for this second
the S&P
and we don't make this up
within a day
topped down and went through a bare market.
You got that?
First week, yields skyrocketed.
Market topped.
Yields kept going up.
Market kept going down.
Now, write this down.
June 17th, just recently,
yields topped.
June 17th.
Do you know what the low of the S&P was?
The recent low?
June 17th.
Now, what do we say about cause and effect?
Now, did we know?
Yields would plunge since.
You don't know.
But we've already gone from 3.483 to 2.681,
and that is a big drop.
A big drop.
So leave no doubt there is an absolute
cause and effect
what yields are doing
and the market. And then
the evidence out of the market
breaking above the 50
day moving average
and then holding it.
And then yesterday's
reaction to whatever he said
and reaction
to bad earnings,
there it is.
That's it.
And now we'll
see where it wants to take us.
And now we have Apple and Amazon reporting after the close.
And what have we said to you?
Bad news is even bought up.
Do you know Apple just reported?
Earnings were down year over year.
Their worst quarter in forever.
The stock closed at 157.
It's at 162 and change.
It's up over five bucks.
That's $80 billion of market cap.
Actually, it's up about $5.50 in the aftermarket.
And it's going to be a moving target.
On a down earnings quarter.
And then there's Amazon.
Amazon closed at 122.
You ready for this?
138 in the aftermarket.
It's up 16.
But you do know it did a 20-for-one split, so it's up 320.
Keep in mind,
It's 138 in the aftermarket.
Eh,
the old high is 188.
And guess what Amazon reported?
Not so good.
And frankly, it's hard to read their earnings.
So I'm not even to go into it,
but they weren't that great.
But both those stocks,
those two are 20% of the NASDAQ 100.
So guess what's up in the aftermarket?
Oh, the NASDAQ 100.
So we're just letting you know.
Real complexion change, but we're not done.
We've got to add a few more things.
Oh, by the way, Amazon reported a 20-cent loss.
The expectations were for 12-cent profit.
We're not making this up.
Revenues rose 7% on Amazon.
Last four quarters were 27% 15%.
15%, 9%, 7%.
What's so good about that?
Normally, be like, heck, sell that crap.
But no, the market right now has a direct correlation
with the direction of interest rates.
And the market strengthened a little more today,
and now we'll see what Apple and Amazon do for things tomorrow.
Now, there have been some earnings that were sold off.
Facebook, Qualcomm, Stanley Black and Decker, Intel's getting crushed in the aftermarket today, and a bunch others.
Not everything's immune, but the big stuff had good reactions.
And remember I just said, I'm not really done?
The transports are up 428 today.
The transport's been dead money.
Guess what that did today?
That solidified its move above the 50-day moving average, holding it on the pullback.
The transports, dead money.
Remember, all we've been doing is talking bearishly about these areas.
Guess what else?
The industrials, symbol X-L-I, catch the drift.
Up next, we'll continue along these lines.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with
pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy
counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating.
chronic stomach aches.
Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach
ache every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut,
you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fast,
fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable
tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to
move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,
programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.
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We're listening to. America is talking.
Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
By the way, while we're talking good news,
I do have to mention a stock called Roku.
And you know what it is?
It's a streaming entertainment device where you get a bunch of things on it.
I have Roku at my house.
It was $491 in July.
And I'm bringing this up because this was one of the most popular stocks going into those levels.
I never owned it because I always worry about the competition for your eyes.
Always worry about that.
And what I mean by that is if there's 5 million places to watch something, it dilutes.
You know, one of my big thought process on marijuana stocks, as they legalize everywhere, if everybody can sell it,
that was my thought process and it turned out to be right.
Well, Roku, I've been asked about it a hundred times over the last 10 months.
And mostly the question is, well, it's down from 490 to 350.
What do you think?
You think it's hit low.
You think it's cheap enough.
Then it went to 250.
I get the same question.
And then it went to 200.
I would get the same question.
Hey, it's $490 down to $200.
And then it went to $150 and then $100.
And at the close of today was $86 bucks down from $491.
I haven't seen their numbers yet.
It's at $62 in the aftermarket down $24.
Holy crap.
When we do this little exercise for you, remember why we do this exercise for you.
It's simplistic.
You better have sell rules because you never know.
And I will tell you in this bear market, what were once stalwarts, how to own forever.
Great company.
have been absolutely crushed.
It made 1999,
2000 bare market to 2003
looked like almost nothing.
Sell rules.
You know what I tell anybody who calls into me
that has people managing their money
and, hey, I'm down 25% this year?
Have you asked what their sell rules are?
You know, people call me up and show me what they own.
And yesterday, or actually it was today, I saw one that had Facebook in it down 55% from the highs.
And I just asked, did you ever ask them the sell rules?
And you worried that there was the ability here for to let something down 55%.
I think it's now 60%.
I'm not addressing them.
I'm addressing you all listening to this show right now.
What sell rules do you have as a fail safe just in case?
Just in case.
And as I've said to you on this show, I'm even stunned.
I'm thinking to myself PayPal, a stock that soared on their business,
310 down to 85.
And by the way, that 85 is off its recent lows.
Do you know, as it pulled back from 310, analysts after analyst every day, were reiterating their buy recommendations?
Do you know why?
Because they were used to.
All pullbacks were bought up.
Any decent drop?
No worries.
It's PayPal.
Of course, until their earnings decelerated to the point where last quarter they were down 28% year over year.
Now, maybe they get better going forward.
But you know what the problem now is?
How many payment type things are there out there now?
How many ways can you move money now?
So again, we do this little exercise.
It's got to be a lesson for all of you.
And it doesn't matter what asset you're in.
Look what's happened to the coins.
The meme stocks, a laundry list of what I consider to be death drops.
And the talk of don't worry, everything will be okay, it'll come back.
I got news for you.
Some of them will.
Some of them won't.
And a 33% drop has to rally for you.
50% to get you even. A 50% drop has to rally 100% to get you even. Do you want me to do the 80%?
I should because there's been a lot of 80% drops. A lot. So I thought an opportune to do this right
now based on markets better. And it looks like it wants to go higher. How much I don't know.
but as I stated, and if you want to check it for yourself, go get a chart, put up the 10-year yield, do a one-year daily chart, see the day it bottomed in earnest in the first week in January, and then overlay the S&P to it, and now go to June 17th and see the 10-year yield top-out.
and see the S&P that tagged its low.
And then the roadmap, price back above the 50 day.
We tested it on Tuesday.
And I will tell you, on Tuesday, I was really suspicious.
The Action Wednesday took away that suspicion.
Today, still need to wait for Apple and Amazon.
They've now passed the test on crappy numbers.
Oh, Apple beat the number.
Great.
Earnings down year over the year.
Worst I've seen.
Amazon, a loss.
Missed numbers.
Market doesn't care.
They may have said something afterward,
haven't seen it yet.
But you get my point.
So Apple, Amazon,
Google, and Microsoft,
great reactions.
Facebook, bad reaction.
Tesla, great reaction.
Netflix.
Netflix isn't a biggie anymore
as far as the index.
But Tesla's right up there, I think, number four or five now.
And the market takes its queue.
But as I was saying earlier, transports, industrials,
they all look like they're turning the corner.
Materials, which have been so weak, maybe.
And of course, those ETFs exchange-traded funds represent stocks.
The last part of the equation,
what I said yesterday
Chipote lay up 200 bucks
When have I been able to say to you
Man a stock out of this gargantuan move on volume
I haven't been able to
Bare market
Well I got news stick for you
There were other things on the move today
With volume
Either turning the corner
Or getting going
And they've been names
That all I've been able to say to you
we're in big down trends.
The downtrends stop,
the stair steps start heading upwards.
Again, not for everything,
but for the many now.
And now we'll have a decent open tomorrow
because of Apple and Amazon, two names,
even though Intel's croaking,
but Intel doesn't matter as much anymore.
And they're in lies.
Up next,
The recession.
My thoughts.
This is the one only investors' edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists
to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health
with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what is.
I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache
every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that
generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive
into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can
probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more
than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.
With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence
to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,
our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.edu.
On-deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment,
expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, On-deck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen
fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau, and earning thousands of money.
of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on.
Apply in minutes at OnDec.com.
Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank.
OnDec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
Investors Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
By the way, you know what I'm getting good at?
Technology.
I am the most technologically unadvanced human being on this planet.
I hire people to do all that, but I promise myself I've got to start learning that stuff.
I am getting a lot better at technology.
Still a ways to go.
I recommend it highly to get better at it.
And I'm just talking about my way around computers and,
inputs and outputs and all that stuff, we're getting there.
Okay, so let me wrap this up.
Another day, a day usually that would be down off of yesterday,
while they were selling it off early, they ramped it up into the close.
That's all.
When you're also looking at your charts tonight,
look what happened around the 50-day moving average.
It now held.
and now we get Apple and Amazon
and I got to tell you
the numbers were pedestrian
but we do not have
bare market action this second
in fact
it's bull market action when crappy numbers
are bought up
now take away those words bull market
I don't want to label it
we're just going to describe it for you
and let you know
we told our people today
towards the afternoon.
We think all pullbacks into the 50-day moving average are viable
for the indices and things that represent
until we say otherwise.
And we're not going to pull back first thing tomorrow morning.
Now let me talk about our opponents.
As I've told you, there are opponents.
30 trillion of debt
says so
and as I've said to you
and we pull no punches
to describe that debt
and simplify it
that's 30 trillion dollars
our politicians spent
over and above our tax dollars
they were never supposed to do it
and what they did is they started
slow and small
and raised it
And then starting with, they started with the Clinton error with a little more spending, but it really started with Bush.
I blame George Bush.
Not the first one, you know, the compassionate, conservative one that took us to Iraq.
It started with him.
And then Obama got the championship belt.
And then Trump took the championship belt away from him.
and now you got this Marxist.
Let me tell you what they're doing now.
I didn't see how much, but it's in the tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars.
Our government's going to give that away the semiconductor companies.
Now those tax dollars are not theirs.
It's ours.
These semiconductor companies make billions and billions of dollars.
Billions and billions.
Why are we given that money to the semi-conductor?
semiconductor companies. Good question. And now the latest. This administration is coming out
with a new bill. I don't know the exact title, but basically it's the inflation lowering bill.
That's the basic title. Let me tell you what they say is going to lower inflation.
Big taxes on the economy and much bigger spending in government, including creating
more departments on the climate.
Ladies and gentlemen, they're not only our opponents.
There are enemies.
They're destroying the future.
They're crushing it.
They're growing their blob by shrinking our economy.
They're growing their blob by creating a sense.
situation where you're paying a ton
more for everything.
You're seeing it.
And remember, the one who was
fighting it, Joe Manchin,
the supposed moderate
from West Virginia? No, he's
signing up on it.
And they have the nerve to tell us that the
bill is going to lower the deficit.
And they're telling us, based on things
they've been telling us for 20 years that we're
going to lower the deficit in the debt.
There are a bunch of
lion sacks of crap, there are enemies. And please don't misunderstand that word. We're not saying
they're terrorists and murderers and those types. They are financial and political enemies of
ours. They are going to put more headwinds in front of us, and they don't give a crap.
We need turn limits to get them out.
until we get people that have respect for us.
But guess who votes for the term limits?
They do.
It is an incestuous and obscene circle that is going on now.
And it's getting worse.
Started with Bush in the big way.
Went to Obama in a big way with his big lie.
Obamacare.
It's going to drop our premiums.
Yeah, we're going to give every.
away free, but it's going to lower our costs.
Another lion's sack.
And then Trump, oh, it's going to be easy to get rid of the deficit.
Another lying sack, spending every year $600 billion.
And now this guy.
So the good news is, markets are going higher.
Bad news is, long term, they're killing us.
Tomorrow will be another day.
We'll open up pretty decent with Apple and Amazon and see where at the
decides to take us. And that's that. From Barcelona, you have a great evening drive carefully.
And when you get home, do like we do once we get home. Make sure you hug your family. Make
sure you hug your children. They'll feel better. You will feel better, I promise. And for those
you have 4-1Ks that have been in the market this whole time, we are thrilled for you.
And we hope it continues. We're all for it. Until tomorrow, same time, peace out all. Thanks for
joining. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past
episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Success starts with
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