Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Good Ending To Crappy Week.

Episode Date: January 20, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

At Arizona State University, we're bringing world-class education from our globally acclaimed faculty to you. Earn your degree from the nation's most innovative university online. That's a degree better. Learn more at ASUonline.asu.org.org. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.

It's January 20th, 2003. It's Friday. I, your host, your handsome and buffed host, has a lot to say today. You know, we're very careful about our words. We know our words are meaningful. We've built up a pretty darn good reputation. throughout the years of being able to get the main trends right in the market. And sometimes there really aren't any main trends.

You know, we in the last 10 years, there was about 18 months the market did squat back and forth and back and forth and back and forth. So that's our only goal. to find them and hopefully they last a while. You never know. When you place your bets and you think a trend is started or getting going, you don't really know. You have a feel.

You know my words, odds favor. You try to put odds in your favor. And if it doesn't work, listen carefully. If it's wrong. If you're wrong, be wrong fast. wrong small. Unlike, you know what's going on out there, how much losses there have been in the last 18. Actually, we got to go back to February 21 when the bubble started popping. I want to talk about this week, simple as that. And the main thrust of what I want to talk about is how weak

the Dow was this week. But on a relative basis, how strong the NASDAQ was. The NASDAQ overall started topping in mid-year of 21, but it did not top until November of 21. And then they finally started to get some of the big guys. That's when the indices started caving in. Throughout the bare market for the NASDAQ, even when we rallied up in the summer of 22, We were never impressed. You had a good move in the summer of 22, but there really were no, listen carefully,

great bases, a trading range to go after in a meaningful fashion. Yes, we knew there was a rally at hand as interest rates came down. But yes, because there was not enough time put. in. Guess what happened starting in August to October? Trashed. From October to three weeks ago, the NASDAQ was probing the lows again. And why am I talking NASDAQ here? What have we told you? It is what we consider to be the risk appetite index. The risk. The risk. index, along with the NASDAQ 100, and we'll throw in the Russell 2000. This whole week, while the Dow has been cracking, the NASDAQ had held up.

It took the Dow 1,200 points to even get the NASDAQ down to the downside. And this week, you want to know relative strength? This week, the Dow is down 930 points at the close this week. A pretty stiff drawdown. Yesterday, we highlighted a ton of what we call economically sensitive names cracking. Now, they all bounced today because at the end of the day, the Dow had a good day. But even with the Dow's good day today, the Dow, again, let me repeat, down about 900 and, let me get the exact number here, 25 points. With the Dow down 925 points.

This week, the NASDAQ was up 60 points. The NASDAQ was actually up about a half percent this week at the finish. While the Dow was down in the neighborhood of getting final numbers, 2.75%. That's what we mean by relative strength. And we came into today. Last night in our webcast, we had said we went through all the breaks, all the economically sensitive names that were breaking. In passing, we said, but just letting you know,

look how Adobe just sitting this week. Look how this other name sitting this week. Now, that brought us into today. The Dow finished up at the end of the day a percent. Not the biggest of deals. The NASDAQ finished up 2.6%. percent. A big deal. So we are just letting you know going into next week and we say this with the disclaimer and the caveat. Notice the big words. The disclaimer and the caveat everybody's reported

in the next three weeks. We just think something's afoot and we'll see where it takes us. It's the best way I can put it. On the NASDAQ, a move above 11-223, Mui and Portante. And the NASDAQ held the 50-day moving average on the pullback. The NASDAQ 100, a move above 11690, Muay and Portante. The IQV, this is a software ETF, excuse me, the IGV, the software ETF, it's an exchange traded fund for the software stocks. Why do we bring that up? If we are going higher, it'll be going higher.

That finished today at 2704. 271.13 was the high. of this week the semiconductor index which by the way this week let me get the number 2794 was only down six points with the Dow down 900 and change if the semiconductor index can get above yeah let's call it if I can find it how about 20 854. Those numbers I just mentioned were the highs of this week. A move above those ranges, Mui and Portante. By the way, that's about the only words I know. I took five years of Spanish and I don't remember anything. And that's bad, isn't it? You know, I promise myself to take Spanish, French, and Italian. And I hear you can do it very easily these days. I'm thinking about it.

I wouldn't mind speaking some other languages. So we're just letting you know really good potential setting up of the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, software, those type of areas as we move into next week. Much more to come. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Ed. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary. called bomb it doesn't get better than this and welcome once again to investors edge but just so you know we have a great little service that we never really more i i don't even market anything we do you know that and we we you know we listen and this is not an indictment of anybody but we know this radio shows were two minutes yeah call us yeah call us we're the greatest in the world call us no call us We never talk about it. For one time, we're going to talk about it. We have this magnificent service.

And basically, what we do is nightly webcast. We show you the roadmaps. We show it to you. We teach. And one month free, because we're such sweethearts. At our website, garyk.com, you press the button. Get one month free. If you like it, terrific.

If you don't like it, you're gone in 30 days. And we'll tell you flat out, we missed the bare market. And we made money in counter trend rallies. We lost the little money in counter trend rallies that did not get going. There's a chance here we can finally get going. Saying that, the day after a ton of economically sensitive stocks cracked last yesterday. Interesting, huh? And I don't want to get into the Fed.

I don't want to get into anything else except what we're seeing. All week this week, the deadenberry NASDAQ, where that certain someone last week said, don't buy it. It just feels like the institutions are sneaky, sneakily. Is that a word sneakily? I'll have to look it up. Moving back in. And we say this again.

bunch of earnings. And we can promise you there'll be some good reactions, some bad reactions. And we're not going to give you a one to ten on confidence factor because you don't know. All we can tell you this whole week, really amazing relative strength in the risk appetite, risk indices. And we'll see what comes of it. As always, we tell you what we think. You guys get to decide. When you scan this weekend, go look at the IGV, go look at the QQQ, go look at the O-N-E-Q. These are E-T-Fs. Go look at the SMH or the S-O-XX, and then you can go look at the indices also. And of course, individual names.

The issue is most of the individual names are not leaders. They are recovery stocks, turning up. Remember how we tell you things bottom and turn up? How do they do it? Over time and near the same price. And then they finally move above the first range and don't give it back. And then they build the stair step and moves higher. And then after it moves higher, it doesn't give it back again. And therein lies the change of complexion.

That's the roadmap we follow. And I can tell you flat out this week, the whole week, Great reactions while the Dow dropped 1,300 points. And again, the disclaimer. The caveat. Earnings. Big time next week. Big, big time.

Speaking of earnings. Netflix. Finished up 26 bucks today, not the biggest move. And may I state for the record, it closed at 341. May I state for the record, the all-time high was, 701 so it's still down over 50% from the highs and I also want to mention earnings were down 91% year over year that sucks how is it up 26 bucks market may be looking at better times ahead who knows don't know don't care just letting you know what happened it may

just it may mean something for the market sales another deceleration and sales growth, just letting you know. And then better tone in the mega caps, coming on better. Let me give an example of something today. Google. They announced firings. The stock turned up today. Go look at the chart and you'll see what I mean by turning up. Their numbers aren't so good. in fact nothing but deceleration over the last year maybe the market's paying up for hey they're recognizing the expense side I don't know we'll see

but it's a big part top five NASDAQ 100 that's of note Netflix is up there Amazon just recently broke back above the 50 day moving average for the first time in a while reports in 13 days. I will flat out tell you

Amazon needs to get back up above $100, close at $96 and change. But better tone. And just amazingly, when you scan the market, you really wouldn't know that Dow was down 900 and some odd points.

And when I give out the final numbers today, it would include Goldman Sachs down another $9 today. Some sort of investigation. but a good day today throughout the day finishing well. I'm already getting email say, oh, it's only because of options expiration? No, it isn't.

You know, many option expirations in the bare market were terrible? So pay no attention to that. All we're letting you know is this whole week great relative strength in the NASDAQ NASDAQ-100 growthy types versus the stuff. If that changes again, we'll let you know. But that's the whole week. And even into yesterday,

the NASDAQ 100 versus the Dow way ahead of the game. And at the end of today, again, Dow was up a percent. What-pee. NASDAQ was up about 2.7%. That has meaning to our work. And we'll see what comes of it.

We have had different tries to the upside in the last year. All failed as the NASDAQ was at New Yearly Lows again, closing lows three weeks ago. Maybe it's gone through enough time at the lows that has done the trick. All we can tell you on a weekly basis, dang, really nice. We'll see what next week brings. Up next, nausea, and then the final numbers. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges world. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole. process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big

thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

listening to America is talking investors edge he's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here with gary coltbaum comes highly recommended you're going to feel better if you talk to okay i can't help myself so as you know the great con game you know what a con game is right it's where they tell you to look at their left hand but their right hand is in your pocket it's where they set it up to you can't win it's where they have supposed people that matter win. It's where they have all the supposed people that matter pounding away with you with the same message, even though the message is just an utter ton of bull crap. And they basically hire people with credibility, supposed credibility, to send the message. To send the message.

out to you? You know like the climate change ass clowns. It's all a big gigantic lie. As I have told you, just look it up. And you know what I'm amazed about? Every now and then people would engage me with it and I would say to them, why don't you just look up that they started out saying it was global cooling and then it started warming. So they changed the message to global warming and then it started cooling. And then they changed the message to climate change so they can never be wrong. And every time there's a tornado, oh my God. Every time there's a hurricane, oh my God. Every time there's heavy winds, oh my God. Every time there's a drought, oh my God. Every time there's some fire. Oh my God. They can never be wrong. But all you got to do,

is go back through 4.5 billion years of the earth and you will know that there's been bad winters, bad summers, rain, slead, hail, tornadoes, hurricanes, fire. Yet they're actually out there telling us we are doomed. You have the biggest con artist on earth like Al Gore 17 years ago with a movie scream. at us in 10 years. And the 10 years passed and nothing happened. And nobody questions them. In fact, they invite him to Davos to say the same bull crap again as he flies in on his private jet. He's a con artist. You know how wealthy he's got off of this? And then they get the scientists to sign off on it who would get

grants, you know what a grant is? Government money you don't have to pay back. It's amazing to watch how people have fallen through it. As Leo DiCaprio comes out and he's on 200-foot yachts that guzzle, guzzle gas. And they tell us he's an environmentalist and he preaches to us in front of a lectern and Al Gore doing the same thing. It's laughable. But somehow you get people in the tank that just fall for it. Do you know for like eight years we had no hurricanes and they didn't say a freaking word? One hurricane shows up. We told you so. Carbon, this, carbon. Guess what? We're going green. I agree with them on one thing. We do need to do something about the always have, always should. And we are. But this ruthless, ruthless want of wealth.

Based on a con that we can control the weather and change the climate. It's a lie. It's so much bigger than anything we do. but they're right in one instance. California had smog because of all the smoke and whatever. It's gone. It was done something about it. A partnership of government and the private sector. Terrific. But I travel the world.

I've been many countries. Air as clean as can be. You know, there are companies out there cleaning the oceans because of man. Pollutions, plastics, it's getting done. We don't need them preaching off their private jets. But that's not even what I wanted to talk about. I wanted to talk about debt. The latest great gargantuan con against you and I.

And that con is, if we don't raise more debt, we're screwed. Do you got that? They have gone into so much debt, these criminals, these legal criminals, these politicians, these ruthless politicians have taken into so us to so much debt, we can never ever roll it back. They've taken it to the point where we have to keep raising debt to cover the debt that they created. More fault to fix the faults. A gargantuan Ponzi scheme foisted upon us to the point where get this new york times today debt brinkmanship if we don't raise more debt it's going to

destroy the economy averting debt disaster from axios some new york congressman i don't even know what he looks like what he says says that if you don't want to raise debt you're arsonous intent on burning everything around them do you know listen carefully the liar in chief joe bide has been telling us he's lowered the deficit by trillions when all he did they just stopped spending on COVID. This year is going to be a record deficit of $1.5 trillion. Our whole federal spending in the year 2000 was 1.8. Do you know when interest rates were at 0% we were still hitting 500 to 550 billion a year on interest payments? Not for the downtrodden, not for the children in need.

Not for the roads, not for the airports, not for the grid, not for the streets, not for the sidewalks, not for the elderly. Interest. Do you know because of them, interest is going to head towards $800 billion a year, $900 billion a year, a trillion a year? Why? Because interest rates are now uncapped. They were rigged for a while. and they're telling us we need more debt or else. They are the greatest, this guy from FTX is not the greatest con artist. Madoff is not the greatest con artist.

Schumer, Pelosi, McConnell, Trump, Biden, Obama, Bush, Pence, Harris. All of these politicians are the greatest con artists in history. that are just creating a gargantuan debt bomb. And where and when it explodes, I don't know, but they'll probably all be dead. That's why they don't give a crap. The year before, COVID, $4.4 trillion of federal spending, this maniacal socialist Marxist-Biden has taken it up to $6 trillion.

And I say that's year over year, because COVID was 2021, 6 trillion of federal spending with a trillion a half deficit. Where the hell is the money going? Why do we have homeless? Why do we have poverty? Why do they keep telling us we need to?

They've spent $80 trillion of our money and debt since 2000. How do we have any cracks and sidewalks? Somebody answer the question. Yet they're out with the scam con artist economists. We got to raise more debt or else got to pay the bills or else. The greatest con artistry in history coming from these people we have all elected. And it's getting worse by the day. Just had to mention it.

Up next. Final numbers. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, two, Ready go.

Action! In The Chester's Edge with Gary Culpa. You know what I realized I am terrible at? I am promising myself to improve. I will post on Twitter. I don't have Facebook anymore. Somebody hacked me and I never really went back on. I'll, you know, I put out notes and stuff.

I never spell check. And then I look it over and I always, two R's instead of one, one R instead of, I'm the worst. So my new thing is I am double-checking everything I put out. I am the worst. And I curse myself out every time I do that. I will get better. By the way, if you put any of these politicians in front of me from the president on down,

what I just said to, I'd say it's straight to their face. You're a bunch of criminal con artists destroying this country. You lie in sacks of crap, just lying to the American. people about the debt and deficits and what needs to be done, how it should be done. They're ass backwards. The economists, their shills, ass backwards. More debt is bad. Bigger spending by government.

Excuse me. Went down the wrong pipe. It's bad. And the numbers, they're obscene. Obscene. The biggest line of, item is going to be interest on all this debt. The biggest line item is going to be the interest on all this debt. Most of them are going to be dead when it blows up or retired.

And you know what's going to happen. They'll just blame it on each other. It's your fault, your fault. No, it's your fault. The right's going to blame the left. The left's going to blame the right. And guess who the victims are. By the way, who are the victims of the inflation? You are. Right? Who are the victims of the bubbles? You are.

Well, you're also responsible if you bought into them. Who created those? The government. They say we have to do the spending because, ooh, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. What are those? Oh, government programs. And we've explained to you,

Social Security is the biggest scale, besides the lottery. It's very simple. If it was out of government's hands when it started, and instead of it going into government that money, for them to watch over, your money that you earned. And it just went into a 10-year bond

and rolled over every 10 years. It'd be in your name now. And you know how much more money you've had besides instead of what they dole out to you based on their stupid moronic formulas, a crap load more. You know, a few years ago, Marx's Bernie Sanders was floating

going after your IRAs and 4-1Ks and put them in their hands. It lasted a day. That wasn't going to go anywhere. But that's how sick these people are. That's how big of control freak they are. And now there's no turning back. That's going to $35 trillion,

$40 trillion, and they don't give a crap. We are just the means to their ends. And by the way, none of this is opinion. This is all factual. Every bit of it is factual. They're a bunch of smelly skunks, every one of them. I know the Republicans are speaking out now,

but they didn't say a damn word under Trump. So I give them any credibility? Hell no. Market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. Oh, my voice is better now. No gray errors with the man you're either in or out of the market. There's proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Dow down 330 near the highs of the day. S&P 73, NASDAQ 288, NASDAQ 100, 323. Sox 84 and transports 246. I got to tell you. We were saying all week how the NASDAQ had much better relative strength versus the debt. And I'm not pissed at myself for not jumping all over it this morning because you didn't know that we'd have a decent day.

But man, oh, man, throughout the day you can just tell the institutions are in there jumping all over software, tech, growth, and the like. these bombed out names from differing levels of their bare markets turning up on the stair steps as we go into next week let's see what comes of it we're not promising you anything we're just letting you know man it's really good to see this is the best look I have seen

since the highs of November on the NASDA There really isn't any leadership names. There's a few. It's mostly coming off lows, secondary lows, some a little bit better than that, but it just feels like and looks like there is going to attempt to make a higher low as we move forward and it was showing itself all week. And the only reason the NASDAQ wasn't up much bigger, Dow finished down 900 plus points. I've already scanned the market. The stocks that got trashed in the last few days with the Dow, they bounce today.

They all look very suspect. This was about, for me, the standout, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 week. And that's what we're going to take going into next week. Does it mean we're going higher? Does it mean we're going lower? I'm giving some odds favor here. We'll see what comes of it. We'll be doing double scans on the weekend.

Again, as I mentioned earlier, at Convictionleaders.com, or you can press the button at garykade.com if you want to see those webcasts for a month free. You all have a great weekend now. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Next week, tons of earnings reports. Stay tuned. and I'll be on with Charles Payne 2 p.m. hour, Fox Business Network on Monday.

You'll take care, everybody. Stay safe. Thanks for joining us. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.