Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Greetings From Dubai

Episode Date: August 31, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. I think, I think it's August 31st. I think it's 2003. I think it's Thursday. Yeah, I think I'm close. Hope you having a great day.

I say I think, because we're just traveling around the world and just trying to get my legs from under me. Just so you know, we are in Dubai right now. I am here for, let's call it two days of business, seven days of seeing Dubai and Abu Dhabi. and the desert and the surrounding areas and seeing the world. And it is right now 1141 p.m. as I speak, it is 3.41 p.m., Florida time in the United States. And I can tell you my screens are up. We are working. We're looking at the market. I think I fell asleep three times today as I am looked. I always say to myself, oh, I will fall asleep on the airplane.

They have these great lie flat seats when I go across the pond, and I'm never able to fall asleep. I don't know what it is, and I don't take pills and stuff. I ended up watching Season 3 of the Big Bang Theory, I think now for the 40th time. I watched a couple of movies. And finally today, you know, you just conk out for two hours. You back up. You conk out for two hours back up. So I'm whooped right now.

And I'm just hoping I can sleep and wake up at seven do a little. Tomorrow is not business day. So we're going to, and we're off on Monday, by the way, Labor Day. So Monday will be the best of Gary. And what we have is some meetings with some people. And it's all about money management and things like that. whether or not we can. There's certain rules and regulations.

You know, I cannot manage an account from Canada in the United States. Still trying to figure out why not. So there's rules, regulations that we follow to an absolute T. But, you know, people that follow, just so you know, and God bless it, because of Fox, Fox News and Fox business, people see me around the world. My rabbi told me, oh, he was a. Israel on a treadmill a few years ago and he's watching me on TV. We've gotten emails from soldiers in Afghanistan in the past. No, not kidding. We get them all around the world and the great part

about it is we get to meet people that we would have never met it. I am always indebted to the people at Fox. Neil Cavuto, who called me, I don't know how many years ago it is, but after appearing for two or three weeks on Fox, called me up and said, we'd like to solidify the relationship. We think you're very good at what you do. And I've been on, I think pretty much number two or three on how long I have been on there as a business contributor. And again, it's, when I walk on airplane, sometimes the pilots will stop me. And I can't tell you how cool that is. And people, What's funny is I answer all my phone calls, anybody asking a question, I answer the emails. And when I answer a phone call at my office and I answer them and I give out people with my cell phones, they're like, you're giving out your cell phone?

And they don't understand. What's a cell phone for if you don't give it out? So we don't look at it any way about being on TV or radio. We think we're just doofuses here that have a good time. And again, we are forever indebted to Fox Business Talk Radio for the radio show that has let us grow leaps and bounds and just met people. You know, not going to mention who, but we've had celebrities come up to us wanting to take a picture with us, not us wanting to take a picture with them. And I mean some serious celebrities. It's pretty darn cool.

So anyway, we're in Dubai. tomorrow's a free day but we will be market opens at 5.30 p.m. from 5.30 p.m. to midnight tomorrow night. I am in front of four screens doing my thing. We'll be back tomorrow night doing the radio show. You know, we used to have this big box to do radio. I have my earbuds in and my iPhone. We have our Lucy Live software and we just talk. We didn't even talk into the phone. We just talk. I'm holding the phone in my hands. That's how cool things are right now. And God bless modern technology. So that all said, we are in hopes that anyone or everyone that was in the path of that hurricane is safe. We really haven't watched TV. And really here, we got CNN International.

No comment. But look, you know, we put that on. I really didn't spend too much time on TV, so I don't know, but we hope you're out of the way. We're still in hurricane season. We were on with Neil Kavuto a couple days ago. We said these words, and we mean this, the weather has no bias. You can be rich or poor, young or old. It will come get you if you let it. I've never understood.

I've watched kids surfing before hurricanes show up or as they show up. It's absolutely nuts to watch. Just stay safe. Be careful. Remember, an article that you own is nothing compared to your life. So we got a few more months left. I still remember I think it was 04. We had three of them come through Central Florida.

I got pictures of so many down trees you wouldn't believe. Unfortunately, we had the biggest trees that fell instead of on our house just to the side. of the house. If it would hit on our house, forget about it. It would have been one hell of a doozy. So anyway, thanks for listening. This is serious talk on everything that matters to you, your jobs, your money, the economy, all the nut jobs in D.C. that are trying to ruin us, that can continue to provide headwinds. As 150 million of us go to work every day, what do they do? They put us in more debt every day. I did watch the president talking about all

his new great investments. Funny that the journalists and say, but you're going into 1.6 to 2 trillion of debt this year. How can that possibly be an investment when you're going to have to float bonds

at very much higher rates than two years ago and your deficits are going to go from here to there? Nobody asked that. Because oh, we're building this and we're building that, we're building this and we're building that. Anyway, and by the way,

everything we told you about Biden is now coming to fruition. He now is, we find out he's using pseudonyms. There's 20 million bucks that went to his family, and you know, you know they're corrupt because the media is refusing to report it in any way, shape, or form, because they're about as corrupt as these politicians, but that's for another day.

The markets. I'm not so sure. Actually, I do know how to explain. Let's go back to our tried and true. Simplicity. We think by simplifying markets for you, you can better understand the markets. You got that? We think by simplifying for you, you can understand them better. Okay. What do we mean by that? It's the 100th stock market, the 100 stocks in the market. As we've done dozens of times with you in explaining the market, we always start out by saying, what if there were only 100 stocks in the stock market? That's how we simplify. Okay.

What if there were 100 stocks? and a hundred stocks were in definable uptrend. And assume your handsome and buffed toast knows what a definable uptrend is. We're just assuming that. What if all of them? Well, they would be moving somewhat from trying to think on a little watch

from the bottom left side to the top right side. You know what I mean. 7 p.m. to 1 a.m. That's what we mean. Up next, we'll simplify more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay, so let's simplify. Imagine there were only 100 stocks in the market. And I gather when they first started it probably was,

and we're assuming that we have a good eye, we're just going to make that assumption, and we know what an uptrend looks like. So if those 100 stocks, and let's just say, for instance, they have an equal weighting, meaning every point each is equal to the next company, every point, versus the Dow right now where they're so stupid people that run the Dow. You have 30 stocks in the Dow.

Right now, Walgreens is the lowest price stock in the Dow and should be, I mean, I don't even know why they put it in, left it in. It's 25 bucks. The highest price stock in the Dow now is United Health, $476. dollars what that means is united health is almost 20 times looks like 19 times more important to the down numbers than wallgreens if wall greens doubled from here one down stock if it doubled from here Walgreens, one Dow stock. If it doubled from here, let's call it $25, 25 times 7 is 175. That would be 165 Dow points.

If United Health doubled from here, it would be 477 times 6.78. You go add that up. 3,000 points? It's just so stupid to have an index that ridiculously weighted. But let's assume everything's equal weighted. So what if you have 100 in an uptrend? Well, you have that nice little uptrend. You draw a 50-day moving average nicely up.

All pullbacks are contained at the moving average all as well. But then we'll fast forward. 20 of them flatten out. They don't go down, but they flatten out. Well, that uptrent is going to be not as steep on the index, because 20 now are not providing necessarily headwinds, but no longer tail wins. Now, what if those 20 started heading down?

Well, you have 80 up, 20 down, and we're now saying those 20 are definable downtrend. Well, just things get tougher for the index. Well, what if it goes 50-50? Well, that means the index is going to flatten out. It's going to go nowhere. 50 in a definable uptrend, 50 in a definable downtrendent. Got that?

And what's our job at that point? To recognize it and stay out of the 50 they're in a downtrendant. Keep the 50 in an uptrend. And what if the 50 in an uptrend flatten out and the 50 in the downtrend keep going down? Well, the market's in trouble. You can't make any money on the long side. And if that 50, let's say 40 of them go into the downtrend and 10 of them are flat, well, there's your bare markets. And of course, every rally is contained now on that 50-day moving average that's now descending versus it was ascending in the bull market.

You got that? We are simplifying things. Well, this is how we roll. And we're bringing this up today because we wanted to get to sleep early because right now it is 1156 p.m. Where I am in Dubai. And as soon as we're done with radio, I'm hitting the sack, at least hopefully, because I don't know the time thing right now. And we just did a webcast for our peeps. and we started out the webcast.

Now, mind you, we've had this nascent, notice the big word, nascent rally, by the way, N-A-S-C-E-N-T, I'm a pretty good spelling. We've had this nice little move, and we've had a little fireworks. What do I mean by that? Well, you've had some of these favored names going up again after going down.

Terrific. But yesterday, on the plane, fortunately we had some internet. Now, all internet on airplanes is what we call spotty, even the good ones. But we were able to scan. And the scan was very slow. Remember how I say to you I can do a thousand stocks in a certain amount of minutes? Well, I can do maybe a hundred stocks in the same time. So we have this market now with thousands of stocks.

thousands of stops. We tell you about 200 sectors, subsectors, countries, different indices. Oh, we got the transports. We have different sectors. Oh, we got retail. Oh, but we have retail autos. We have retail electronics. We have retail this, retail that. Department stores, discounters. And while the market's going up, I'm noticing something. I'm noticing Bank America American Express Goldman Sachs

J.P. Morgan. Wells Fargo. Morgan Stanley. PNC Bank. Truist. The regional bank's ETFs. Capital One financial. Discovery financial.

Some investment managers, investment bankers, investment managers. Let's assume we know what we're seeing. Well, we're letting you know they look like crap. They aren't just flattened out. They look downright bearish, some worse than others.

J.P. Morgan is not even close to as bad as a city group, but J.P. Morgan has topped out recently, cannot get back above that all-important 50-day moving average. And now they're teasing, doesn't mean it's going to happen, another stair step to the downside. In other words, J.P. Morgan, which as I speak is 1546.40, if it breaks 145 to the downside,

it's got another stair step to the downside. And I'm seeing all these financials. This is wild today, just today, Adobe Software Company, breaking out to new highs. Amazon recently gapped up and really did nothing waking up out of its slumber. Other software names, other semiconductor names, quite green. Lamb Research trying to make a move again, for instance. You also have good reactions in some software names like CrowdStrike, Octa, Viva Systems. Salesforce.com, though they opened it hot and they distributed it a little. little bit. And what am I basically trying to tell you to simplify things? This is not an end-all-be-all

market. You cannot just own the market. You know, every now and then, we get music. We'll be-back. And this is the one to only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprieker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited Double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to okay so to continue with the simplification I had somebody call me um and I'm not mentioning names who whatever but this is an important point with the money manager that put them into 230 stocks and I just simply said asked how much you're paying the money manager. I think they were paying 1% something like that. I said, why don't you just go buy the S&P 500 instead of paying somebody one point something percent? I think it was a couple

of million dollars. So you're paying somebody on 1% 20,000 a year to just buy you the market. And then I looked at the stocks. And by the way, the person decided that not to come with me, which is fine. Full disclosure. And I told the person you can email me, call me any time, any opinions. And I went through the 290 stocks. And in this was Verizon. And Verizon stock has gone since 2020 from 62 down to 35. Really?

How was that owned? And then I just kept going through and there were stocks in there that were down 50%, 60%, 70%, 70% from 2021. So there's somebody there that is not doing what we do. And that is we recognize, and we're assuming for you guys, because full disclosure, just so you know, I can't guarantee you anything. My industry deems no guarantees. I can tell you how hard we work at it, what a good eye we think we have, and what our goal is, I'm never going to guarantee. We respect the regulators beyond the beyond. They don't get enough credit. They only get the blame when somebody blows up. But you know how many people they have to oversee? Tons.

So what we just tell you is assume we know what a downtrend looks like. We know what a bare market looks like. You got these people just owning these bare markets. And what we're just trying to tell you right now, right here, we just want to let you know this market has got a lot of bearish stocks and sectors still. While we rally up, the only things we have bought, is big technology again and the simple reason why we're looking for launching pads and we're looking for uptrends and of course we'd like to see good earnings and revenue growth on the fundamental side also

I can tell you again in that simplification of the market so let's say the market now let's raise the bar. There's a thousand stocks in the market. And let's just say in those thousand stocks, there's 10 different sectors of 100 stocks each. And let's just say one of the sectors is the financials because financials. Well, guess what those financials are doing? Guess what I just told you. They are working against the things that are working. and it's really starting to get accentuated now in just a huge way and pretty much

I can take a city group and just draw a line down over the let's talk since January just drifting downwards where it's outperforming only

20% of the stocks in all the market. And then, so I'm drawing a line from, let's say, 10 p.m. down to 4. But then I can just click a button and put up Nvidia and do the exact opposite. That is what we mean by measuring sticks, simplifying things, keeping your eye on the ball,

watching traffic. And again, I have to watch my words here. Hopefully never, ever being in bare market stocks. Assuming we know what a bare market looks like and acts like, assuming we know what a downtrend is, assuming we know what an uptrend is, assuming we know what a bottoming process is, what a topping process is,

we're assuming just because that's what we're doing here. Assuming we know all that, we're just letting you know, we don't own any financials. Heck no. Why? They're doing the dance of two steps down, one step up. We're using that as a metaphor, that little phrase, versus others that are doing two steps up, one step down. And you can just draw pictures of that movement. And you want to do your best to stick with that movement until the movement changes. And we're just letting you know, jet lagged in all, flying across the world in all. We just did a webcast before this radio show. And I'm like, what the heck is going on with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley and PNC Bank and Wells Fargo? And we can come up with any reason we want, 10-year yields, the real estate, commercial real estate, this, that, and the other thing.

The rating services have lowered their ratings. Okay, terrific, fine, wonderful. We're just letting you know that's something the market overall possibly has to deal with. Why? What's the number two most important area of the market? But something just below semiconductors. It's the financials. It used to be financials until 2008.

And then 2008 financials lost there what I call luster, leadership. And frankly, based on some of the miscreants that should be in jail now with these financial companies that never even got indicted, maybe should be lower. But they matter. Financial stock markets. Why the semiconductors? It's just factual. They've led the markets up and down for a very long time. And even the semiconductors right now,

they've been under some pressure, and a lot of them act like crap in the group. But others much stronger. Go take a look at a chart of, let's call it, we're going to use Nvidia for now. Go look at a chart of Nvidia and the price movement. Now go take a look at Qualcomm. Not a semiconductor name.

Beauty and the beast. So again, simplification. Where to be, we're not to be. And if you're in the market's neck deep, you really should study what a bull market looks like, what a bear market looks like, the characteristics. And as we've told you many times, many times, many, many times,

They're books. How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neill and anything he's ever written. The Secrets of Profiting in Bull and Bar M. Markets by Stan Weinstein. Go get any book by John Boyke, B-O-I-K. Go get the book Market Wizards. Bill Morales. Nicholas Darvis, D-A-R-V-A-S, and study them.

Imagine if you're never, in bare market stocks. Just imagine that. Imagine if you have the ability to never be in bare market stocks. Just imagine. Imagine if your portfolios going forward only have

bull market stocks. Imagine. That's what we attempt to do. And as I have said to you, we cannot ever guarantee. That's what we attempt to do. Up next, today's market. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport. Lounge is worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour,

you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being once today. Hope you having a good day. We're whipped. By the way, Dubai. How do I explain it? Just so you know, the son of the sheik who passed away the the son decided and I watched the interview a week ago

saying something effective we want to be number one we want to be number one in and he went through a litany of things first people it may have been a 60 minutes interview that I watched I'm not sure and all I can tell you is this area, and I don't know a ton, as you, as I'm in my car today going towards the hotel, cranes, crane after crane after crane with buildings, the most magnificent buildings I really have seen, it's clean, at least where I've been, and we've traveled, decent around today. The people here, how do I put this? They are so nice

and so forthcoming, so friendly to you and seem like they couldn't be happier for you being here. And that's from the airport down. And you know how I do rate a city.

when you don't have two-hour waits in customs at an airport, went right through. It was fantastic. So big props. I don't know everything about it. I'm going to learn more while I'm here. But just magnificent, just magnificent place. And right now, where we're staying right now, we're on the palm.

They built this man-made. It looks like a palm. And at the end of it is Atlantis Hotel, where they had, you know, they have the Atlantis and the Bahamas. They have one here. And of course, they have a Nobu restaurant there. And I'm going to it. That'll be the 18th Nobu restaurant around the world that I have been into. By the way, if you've never had the black cod at Nobu, it's to die for.

So we'll be doing that. And just I'm enamored with just the whole. atmosphere here. And I'll know more while I'm here. So, and we'll keep you up to date. I'm meeting with some people and you will, you know, never know outcomes on some certain things. Anyway, today's market wrap kind of is brought, well, we'll now we'll explain a little bit of today. Brought to by Investment dash Models.com. That's Jim Roeback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the mandurita in the market,

but his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. You ready? The NASDAQ was up 15. The NASDAQ 100 was up 38. What else is new? The NASDAQ, though, at one time today, I believe was up 100. if memory serves me right.

The Dow was down 165. The S&P was down seven. And those financials, south end of a northbound jackass. By the way, 14-1-1-480, the NASDAQ was up 95 at one time. So we're going to be watching that closely. We're not saying the end of the world's at hand

because the financials are acting terribly. And I can tell you, they kind of sort of been acting terribly for a while. And of course, we know about the Silicon Valley and all that. Just keep it in the file manager. And we're just telling you, we don't own any. We don't own any. The only financials that are acting well are MasterCardin visa right now, Blackstone's been acting a little bit better?

Yeah, Blackstone, not bad. Certainly not in the big uptrend. and then I look at Citigroup and Bank America. I'm like, what the hell is going on? So, excuse the call, simplifying things. That's all we want to do. Simplification. What is what isn't?

And just to repeat again, if you're able to decipher bull and bare markets. So the Dow, down 168, by the way, United Health was down 15 in the Dow today. that whole group is about as weird as weird can be has had some wild swings recently on what are government's going to pay or not pay the managed care and frankly i didn't even see any news today on the managed care stocks but they will whack today that was down 15 that's down about 80 down points a Boeing not a great day that was down five and the Boeing uh has been trying. But just remember, Boeing's had their share of troubles. And the high in 2019 was 441. It's 224. And then back again to the financials. Just what the heck? Now, are the financials going to lead down the market? Why do we say that? One of the greatest, calls we have ever made. One of the greatest calls we ever made was kind of by accident.

Back in 07, we highlighted for you that every day the financials were acting horribly. And you know what ended up happening throughout that whole year. And then finally, disaster. We didn't know disaster was coming, but they were sure showing the way. We'll be doing radio tomorrow. Monday Labor Day. Have a great weekend. No, excuse me, have a great evening.

We'll be back tomorrow and drive carefully when you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better, I promise. I'm going to sleep. Have a great one, everybody. Always appreciate you joining us.

Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get a lot. in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.