Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Happy new year [12.29.2023]

Episode Date: December 29, 2023

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Starting point is 00:00:00 At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. The last trading day of the year, as you know, this is
Starting point is 00:00:51 Investors Edge. Serious talk on you. Everything affects you. We do markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficits, spending, scams, shams, corruption, and anything that comes to mind. And we thank you for being here. We thank you. We have people that email us. They've been listening for years and years and years.
Starting point is 00:01:14 I don't know how you do that. We just want to let you know up front as we enter the new year. We sincerely appreciate any one of you listening to anything we have to say. Whether you agree or disagree, and we do know we have a share, we have a strong opinion on certain things.
Starting point is 00:01:31 We think very logical opinions without any bias, a gender ulterior motive. As we say, one of our mottoes is we can't stand any of them. And you know what I mean by that. But thank you. And I mean that sincerely. I have to tell you, right before we were starting to show, I have Fox News on, and at the end of the 3 o'clock hour, they're doing people that died this year. And I got to thinking, do we really remember people that passed away that are not in the family affect us, close to us?
Starting point is 00:02:15 I just noticed so many of these people, and I completely forgot they died. Not all, because I have to tell you, Jimmy Buffett, big Jimmy Buffett fan. I've only seen them one in concert, and I have to thank my friend Rob Siegel. for taking me because I wasn't really into it. But he was fantastic, and I've been a Jimmy Buffett fan ever since. Norman Lear, my favorite show of all time, my number one show of all time, all in the family. Tony Bennett, well, it speaks for itself. By the way, if I sang three notes, you'd shut me down before you can breathe.
Starting point is 00:02:59 And Tony Bennett, Matthew Perry, I never watched Friends. once he died I started watching I'm already on the sixth season and you know what? He was the star he stood out more than any of them Sandra Day O'Connor passed away Supreme Court
Starting point is 00:03:20 just a woman awesome and on you know big list big list every year but it seems we easily forget as we move up on throughout the years.
Starting point is 00:03:42 I mean, that's how it goes, I guess, right? Unless somebody really affects. And I know we get affected by our movie stars, our TV stars, our politicians, our athletes. Anyway, I was just watching that and thinking, wow, I forgot about that. And I forgot about him and I forgot about her. And it shouldn't be that easy, but I guess it is. Why? Because we move on every day.
Starting point is 00:04:10 We just move on. All right. As always, we segue. We'll get into my complaining about a couple of things a little bit later. I want to go right into the markets here because not by accident. We don't believe it's easy to just pinpoint markets. They're not that easy. Tops take time. Bottoms take time. Changes in complexion usually. take time. But we really have been pretty darn good pinpointing. July to end of October, we were clearly bearish every day on this show. Every day. And we were saying the same words every day. 80% of stocks are in the downtrend and we were going through all the sectors. The only things we bought during that time was some mega cap tech and actually made some money. The other area was oils. But that was it. and everything was just getting was croaked as interest rates skyrocketed.
Starting point is 00:05:20 And on November 1st, we didn't predict a bottom, but we recognized the potential for the low. That was the confirmation day. And we had no idea that yields would crash. And we had no idea because of that, the market would just skyrocketed. We just knew the things were turning. And every day we'd come on and say, oh, that's turned, that's turn, that's turn, that's turn, that's turned. And we've had a really strong rally up. And some of the biggest winners were the biggest losers, cruise lines.
Starting point is 00:06:00 Big winner off the low. Not back to the July highs, at least Carnival is, and Royal Caribbean is. It went from 1084 Carnival to 1855 end of October. you can add those numbers up. But I don't want to talk about the move up now because I'm not saying we're past it. I want to talk about last Wednesday and here's what we said to you. In the final two hours, the Dow dropped 500 points, NASDAQ couple of hundred. And we said to you at the time, just let you know, let's remember this day.
Starting point is 00:06:45 let's keep it in mind because it could be a shot across the bow and what that simply means is an area where the institutional crowd woke up selling and it was the first real selling I saw since the lows
Starting point is 00:07:07 so we just mentioned it that way it's keep it in mind keep it in the file manager and guess what happened the market pretty much ignored it. We slowly drifted up for a few days and actually made relative highs. In other words, the high of that day was taken out. That's good news. That brought us to yesterday, where we made sure to say to you, we used a word, mushy. Just letting you know it's getting a little mushy in here and just letting you know we have to remember last Wednesday and see what happens.
Starting point is 00:07:55 Doesn't mean the end of the world because the fact is with so many things turned up, if we decide to pull back here, it may not be such a bad thing. Remember, we're stretched, extended, and overbought from the norm. What that means is markets have gone farther in a shorter period the time than the norm, and always, eventually, we don't know when, that gets worked off. To what extent we don't know. And when we don't know. But last Wednesday was a shot. And then yesterday, mushy.
Starting point is 00:08:37 We think we're probably on to something. How's that? Why? It got more mushy today. Now, I can tell you that the Dow was only down 20 because it was only down 20. But when things get defensive, the Dow will tend to hold up better. Because with the Dow only down 20, NASDAQ down 83, NASDAQ 100 down 73, transports down 103, advanced declines on the New York, 1186 up, 2873 down,
Starting point is 00:09:14 NASDAQ 1129 up 2994 down that is the opposite of what we've seen in the rally so we're just giving you a little bit more of a warning shot that underneath the surface it's getting a little icky it got more mushy today it got more mushy today it got more mushy today to what extent i haven't screened yet i haven't scanned and what we will do now is the usual. We'll scan 1,500 plus names, 200 sectors, every country, every commodity, to see how many names have already gotten trouble, meaning they've gone by the wayside. They broke their little stair steps to the upside and now starting stair steps to the downside. And the more that it happens to, the more we know there's more headwinds and more headwinds.
Starting point is 00:10:11 and now we just play it as it comes. We don't have to sit here in particular, oh, well, at the under 24, the Dow's going to be so-and-so. They don't know. They're BS in you. They don't have a clue. I promise you that. All the predictors were crapping in their pants in October.
Starting point is 00:10:30 You know, they're always bullish. And a bunch of them turned bearish in October. Oh, and the market lifted off. What we do here is interpret the action. Stay on top of it. Know what bullish and bearish action looks like. Bullish and bearish markets look like. Up trends and downtrends and downtrends and what they look like.
Starting point is 00:10:50 Understand sentiment and extremes, and we've had extreme bullish sentiment and bears have hit the ski slopes. They're gone. So just letting you know the mushy talk I gave you yesterday off of the last Wednesday got a little more mushy today. And there are a few names going by the wayside. Up next, we'll elaborate more. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
Starting point is 00:11:41 We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,
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Starting point is 00:12:36 With record U.S. debt, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and constant market swings, many people are rethinking how to protect their savings. Physical gold and silver have been used for generations during uncertain times to diversify, not replace, traditional investments. Preserve gold helps Americans understand these options. Text iHeart to 50505. to get your free wealth protection guide and explore how precious metals may fit into your retirement planning.
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Starting point is 00:13:30 APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.
Starting point is 00:13:50 I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say, and she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
Starting point is 00:14:14 You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So just letting you know we've got more mushy.
Starting point is 00:14:42 If we pull back here, it'd be so normal. normal. The market is just stretched very far, too fast, and you know what else is stretched too far, too fast? Bond yields. And they bounced yesterday, they bounced a little more today. That direct correlation pretty much stands. That's what the market's feeding off of. Not the Fed. They're bozos. It's every time I'm on TV, I have to keep saying, we shouldn't be talking the Fed. They're not even on the playing field. And then they go back to saying, oh, what do you think of the Fed? They're nobodies.
Starting point is 00:15:27 They're numskulls. The only time they mattered. There was only one time they really big time mattered when they print money. Bernanke, who caused the problem with easy money, printed money. Powell caused the problem. with printing money, the inflation caused the problem. And now all of a sudden they're the heroes. No, they suck.
Starting point is 00:15:55 If I was president, gone. I wouldn't let him be dog catchers. And I mean that sincerely. Nothing personal. I'm sure they're very nice people, but they don't know what the hell they're doing. I also made a prediction. And we don't make predictions. But we decided to do one just because of something.
Starting point is 00:16:22 that we saw in a number, the NASDAQ and technology in how much it was up this year, and how narrow it was this year. So we said to you, what's today, Friday? I believe it was Wednesday. Was it Wednesday, I think? Yeah, I think it was. We said to you on Wednesday, we have a prediction that the NASDAQ, sometime in 24, will drop 10 to 15 percent to work off.
Starting point is 00:16:57 the excesses. And really, you don't want to know what we think if they really work off all the excesses. As we have told you, there are some valuations that we don't understand how companies that are at new yearly highs,
Starting point is 00:17:14 that their business is cut in half on their sales and have lost tens of billions of dollars. But what the hell do I know? Just remember, the market can be crazy for a time. The market can be overvalued for a time.
Starting point is 00:17:32 It's happened many times before. You know, it always eventually happens. Norm. So we'll see. That was our only little prediction just because of how much it was up this year. We don't act on the prediction until the market shows itself,
Starting point is 00:17:49 and of course it's showing a little bit here. Nothing to get twisted over. And the next thing we all, do just so you know we have big screens we have a bunch of screens but we have three main screens and one of the screens is stocks in good shape if that screen lessons meaning I take names off and move them to another screen it tells me a bunch about the market just like I've been able to in the last two months move a bunch of names to that screen and I can tell you in the
Starting point is 00:18:29 last few days, I've been able to move a synopsis. It's a software company off the screen. I have been able to, you know, that's super micro. I move that off the screen because it looks like it's pretty much topping out. I move, and this one was never a leader, but upstart. It was getting going because things were getting frothy. That's rolled over. I let go of what else was off the screen. Ali's bargain, whatever, O-L-L-I, it's just a symbol. And there's others, not as bad, but there's others. Roku's coming off the screen, topped out. And of course, they lose a ton of money anyhow.
Starting point is 00:19:17 Seeing a couple of software names. But on the other end, I'm watching Nvidia here, six to seven-month trading range. arguably the number one or two technology stocks in the market. Forget performance. It's done nothing in six to seven months. It's a big move happened from January up until June July. July, let's call it July.
Starting point is 00:19:42 And it's done nothing since. If that sucker breaks out of range, I don't care what the rest do. I'm on it. So we're going to separate the good from the bad. We're going to separate the crap from the not-so crap. And also, you need to know one of our mantras, very important. It's easiest to isolate strength when the market's pulling back. What's not pulling back?
Starting point is 00:20:10 While the market's pulling back. What's breaking out and really rolling while the market's pulling back? And that's what we're going to be doing now because it looks like mushy is turning into some corrective work. Nothing untoward, nothing to get twisted over. Oh, maybe Airbnb's topped also. There's another one too. Yeah, so I got another one.
Starting point is 00:20:33 Anyway, you get my point. So I got three days off. As soon as I'm done with this show, I'm going to get to work. First get our big scan done. It only takes me an hour these days because of modern technology. And then we decipher and decipher a little bit more and a little bit more and a little bit more. And see if anything stopped going. Hershey's Big Bear Mark at the last nine months.
Starting point is 00:21:00 276 down to 165, 170, maybe bottoming. And their earnings and sales aren't that bad. So I don't know why the hell it's been croaking. So I'm writing down Hershey's. Maybe a potential low in there. And then I'm going to look at, oh, if the Hershey's doing or any other food stocks looking the same. That's how we do things. So you get an idea how much in-depth we do.
Starting point is 00:21:29 not the charlatans that are patting themselves on the back that stayed 100%. I saw somebody said yes, I'm 100% invested. Oh, congratulations. They're always 100% invested. But they won't tell you that.
Starting point is 00:21:46 And that pisses me off. I don't like charlatans. Not in my business. But welcome to the world, ladies and gentlemen. That's how it rolls, I guess, sometimes. Anyway, that's the story. very bad AD today, very bad. What happens in the daylight today and yesterday,
Starting point is 00:22:05 the new yearly highs really contracts. And now we'll be watching how things pull back. What doesn't pull back? What pulls back a little? What pulls back a lot? Whether there's heavy volume involved, our moving averages being taken out, we'll look at the indices also,
Starting point is 00:22:22 but we'll also know that the Dow will hold up better if things get a little bit icky. Yeah, Icky. What can I tell you? I'm an English major. I think Icky's a word, isn't it? I see K-Y? I'm going to have to look that up.
Starting point is 00:22:42 Icky's got to be a word, isn't it? I'm looking it up right now. I-C-K-Y. Icky's a word. Unpleasantly sticky. Nasty or unpleasant, distastefully sentimental. I guess stocks can be icky. Hey, up next.
Starting point is 00:23:03 This, that and the other thing, whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Economic headlines keep shifting, but the uncertainty remains. Market volatility, rising debt, and global tensions are affecting retirement accounts and long-term savings. Many Americans are turning to physical gold and silver as tangible assets to help diversify their portfolios. Preserve gold provides educational guidance, including how metals can be held in an IRA. Get your free wealth protection guide when you text IHeart to 50505. That's Iheart to 505.05.
Starting point is 00:23:43 Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
Starting point is 00:24:07 Learn more at APU. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's
Starting point is 00:24:41 It's your happy place You're listening to America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Coltbaum
Starting point is 00:24:58 It comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge So let's just Overall We have no clue what $2,02024 is going to bring we'll play it day by day.
Starting point is 00:25:16 We keep hearing presidential year is always good. We don't care what they say about that. We keep hearing that inflation is gone. We don't care what they have to say. We'll watch to see what the market thinks. We keep hearing, oh, the Fed is engineering a soft landing. Kiss mine. The Fed doesn't engineer anything.
Starting point is 00:25:35 160 million of us going to work every day, engineer the economy. We're just going to watch the market. And we're going to stay in key. year and we're going to know what's in uptrends and downtrends. And we're going to be careful around earnings. We're going to watch interest rates like a hawk. Unfortunately, what is about eight times a year, we've got to deal with these income poops at the Fed because you never know what stupidity is going to come out of them next.
Starting point is 00:26:03 We have no idea the variables that are going on in the Middle East or Russia, Ukraine, or China, Taiwan, or anything else that's happening. We have no idea what the variables are going to be. We have no idea who's going to come out of the primary Looks like Trump's the chalk We have no idea whether Biden's going to be the person Because man, oh man, he looks like, you know And I'm not one of those people that for years
Starting point is 00:26:26 Have been saying, oh, he's old and he can't do this And he can't do that and he can't do this No, we didn't go there But I must tell you, as we said to you the last six months The dudes getting old But we don't care about that If he was 150 years old had good policies Fine and dandy
Starting point is 00:26:40 His policies suck it's control freakism and massive debt, massive deficits, a complete ignoring of the border and you are not a country if you don't have a border to the point where
Starting point is 00:26:56 Democratic mayors are pissed off at a Democratic president of cities that are getting a lot of these migrants. Now they know how Texas and the southern border states have felt forever. He messed up Afghanistan, screwed over the women of Afghanistan, are now back into the
Starting point is 00:27:25 dark ages, left a ton of our artillery in Afghanistan. And I really do believe this is just an opinion these despots, these dictators, these communist pieces of crap around the world, think he's feckless. That's my opinion. And that's why they're doing what they're doing. They believe nothing's going to be done to them. I don't know if you know this, but the media is kind of sort of reporting it. Kind of sort of. But we've been attacked across the world in different places. What have we done?
Starting point is 00:28:09 A little drone here and there. And of course the media still sucks. Do you know they spent, I decided to count this morning. Was it yesterday? It was this morning. About 20 seconds on the border. And did not mention the president. Just like the border's in trouble because it is.
Starting point is 00:28:33 Now, when Trump was president, they ripped them to shreds 24-7 on the border. You remember about the kids in the cages, right? I don't know if you know this. Biden had kids in cages and still does. Did you know that? Oh, you don't know that because it's not being reported. There's your media. They suck, too.
Starting point is 00:28:50 So they did about 30 seconds on that. They did five minutes on Nikki Haley and her being stupid on the Civil War. Why? Because they're biased miscreants. That's what they are. It's terrible. And part of why Trump is so beloved as he rips the stuffings out of them every single day. Trump became Trump because how bad the media is.
Starting point is 00:29:24 And the media treat women Republicans like scum. They treat women Democrats. Oh, Diane Feinstein passed away. Let her rest in peace. She was one of the most corrupt politicians out there worth a couple of hundred million bucks. Our husband got the government contract on the real estate of the postal service, made bazillions off of it. How is that? There's no conflict of interest? Really? I can go on and on. But she's an icon. You know, right? She's an icon. So just letting you know what's going on out there because that leads me into this main thing with Trump. And as you know, I don't like the guy. I don't want him being the next president.
Starting point is 00:30:14 I can't stand the guy. But the idiot running Maine is taking him off the ballot. Oh, by the way, a Democrat running Maine is taking him off the ballots. It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen. The stupidest thing I've ever seen. I've ever seen. Telling the people that the will of the people go screw yourself in the state of Maine. And of course, this is going to piss off a lot of people and get more votes for Trump.
Starting point is 00:30:46 That's how it's been working. It's amazing to watch. And let me repeat again, I can't stand the guy. And I think he's guilty of a lot of that stuff that he's got counts on. But you don't take him off the ballot. Now, if he's ever found guilty of something, and declared a felon or what have you. It's another story.
Starting point is 00:31:11 I ain't happened. Innocent before guilty. That's the mantra of this country. Anyway, just want to let you know. Next, Chicago mayor. So they get rid of a nutcase, liberal, stupid, moronic mayor of Chicago, and they elect even worse. Let me quote the Chicago mayor. Reparations will help violence and crime go down.
Starting point is 00:31:44 So money from the taxpayers of Chicago being given to criminals will make them stop committing crimes. So the first thing I have to say, he's claiming blacks are criminals in Chicago. he's putting down the blacks. You're criminals, you're violent, but we're going to give you money from other taxpayers, and that'll bring down crime. What a schmuck. Yet the Chicago, I don't know what's with these Chicagoans.
Starting point is 00:32:20 The last mayor was a nightmare, and they get worse. They get somebody else. That's worse. Oh my God Yeah, we're going to give us some money Yeah, it's not ours It's your neighbors
Starting point is 00:32:40 Please don't shoot anybody now Please don't rob any stores now Don't carjack anymore Because we're going to give you money I'm just reporting the news ladies and gentlemen The world is going nuts The world's going nuts The world is going nuts
Starting point is 00:33:01 You know Biden once said If you don't vote If black doesn't vote for me, you're not really black. He once said that. Go look it up. Lastly, in today's nut job, it's now being reported how Joe Biden's mad at B.B. Netanyahu, because B.B. Netanyahu's not going to listen to Joe Biden,
Starting point is 00:33:27 who is the worst, worst foreign policy person ever the last 50 years. Yeah, sure, right. And you know why they're reporting it? because Biden's wanting them to report it, to put pressure on Israel, who just had 49-11s. By the way, go to my Twitter feed, which is now X,
Starting point is 00:33:50 and go see what is coming out what these animals did to the women. While no women organizations are standing up for it, because they suck too. Oh, if you're raped, it's bad, but if you're Jewish, you know, kind of like, yeah. And that's the nut house of today. Just had a cover.
Starting point is 00:34:16 And I know it's the end of the year. And he's supposed to be happy and all that stuff. But I got to tell you on a daily basis, what shows up on my screen. And by the way, we don't just report things. We investigate them because you never know who's reporting it. You know, like when they said Israel bombed the hospital. And what does this all have to do with everything? Biden runs the country.
Starting point is 00:34:38 There's a chance. Trump is going to run the country next. As I've said, we need two. different people. We really do. We really do. Both of them, that's my opinion, and you may agree or disagree, but a lot of you agreeing these days, you know, Gary, you're right, I'm getting a ton of that. Think about it. Up next, we'll take you to the end of the year. Thanks for joining them, Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Every day, the headline shift, but the uncertainty never seems to fade. From rising geopolitical tensions to record U.S. debt and ongoing debates about inflation
Starting point is 00:35:55 and money printing, Americans are watching economic forces that feel far beyond their control, and for many, that instability is showing up in retirement accounts, personal savings, and long-term financial plans. More people are taking a closer look at options that don't depend on Wall Street. Physical gold and silver have been used for generations as real, tangible assets during unpredictable moments like these. They're not about replacing existing investments, they're about adding a layer of diversification that has historically helped provide balance during volatile periods. Preserve gold focuses on education, giving everyday American straightforward information about how precious metals can fit into a retirement strategy, including options to hold them
Starting point is 00:36:34 inside an IRA. To get your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Text IHeart to 50505 today. Starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
Starting point is 00:37:13 Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low... Listen. So we sat there. Listening.
Starting point is 00:37:43 That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors' Edge
Starting point is 00:38:00 with Gary Culper. All right. And we'll once again to Investors Edge. Well, another year gone by in the markets and we don't care what's happened. We care what's going to happen. Yes, today is gone.
Starting point is 00:38:28 The important thing is what's next? My worries. My worries. simple GDP is being run by 6. something trillion of federal spending by the government, 2 trillion of a debt. My worries, we're 34 trillion headed to 50 trillion. My worries. One day the bond market wakes up to that debt and instead of thinking about inflation, it thinks about the debt and interest rates skyrocketed and there goes the markets. My worries.
Starting point is 00:39:03 valuations are high historically. Meaning if earnings really don't come around, valuations are going to remain high. We've highlighted you a bunch of names with just ridiculous valuations. My worries. Very narrow market, though definitely broadened out the last two months off the lows of the end of October. My worries, those big seven to ten years,
Starting point is 00:39:31 those big seven to ten names. Apple is trading it twice its normal valuation of the last 15 years with no sales growth. That doesn't mean it doesn't start coming around again. We're just letting you know what we're seeing at this moment in time. What we're going to be watching most closely
Starting point is 00:39:58 for the thousandth time. Interest rates. The siding force. defining force. When we do our webcast, pretty much the first thing I do is I take out the 10-year yield and I draw a line down. And at the same time, I draw a line up as I show the S&P on the same chart. Direct correlation. Just like July to October as interest rates skyrocketed, the market tanked.
Starting point is 00:40:33 That'll be number one. Unfortunately, number two, we've got to watch. and hear what the ass clowns at the Fed have to say or do because they've done nothing good even though I don't know why people give them credit. They destroyed free markets. They've enabled the massive debt when they took rates down to nothing. They screwed savers for a long time. They bubbled up asset prices that crashed completely.
Starting point is 00:41:02 They created the inflation. They fell behind the inflation when the inflation shows. up, they missed it. And finally, when it was really soaring, the ups, I better catch up, and now they caught up, and now they've gone farther than the interest rate environment, which means they will be lowering rates in the next Fed meeting. I'm not even sure when the next Fed meeting is. Maybe it's in January. I don't know. They worry the heck out of me. Next Fed meeting. Let's see what I find for you. Fed meeting calendars. That's showing me 23. I need 24 and it's not showing me 24.
Starting point is 00:41:48 Oh, it's shown, no, that's 22. Next Fed meeting, 2004, January 30th and 31st. I gather Wednesday's the 31st. And I'm pretty sure they will lower rates. But just plain catch up to market rates. Job market. it's still strong. It needs to stay strong because of the amount of debt on the consumer.
Starting point is 00:42:24 Consumer credit cards highest ever over a trill. Loans for cars and houses and things much higher than they were, though off the highs of late October. And if job market really softens, I'm not so sure. the market can hold for simple reason that debt. GDP for the quarter in is going to drop, I think it's probably going to be around one and a half two, still up down from the five, but that was a lot of government,
Starting point is 00:43:00 and we shall be watching. And every day we're going to be looking for the leading stocks and leading groups. When we're wrong, we're going to be wrong fast and be wrong small. We tell our clients, before we even bring them on. Is it okay if we buy something Monday and sell it on Tuesday with a half percent loss or gain or even flat? If they say, I'm not so sure I can handle it, then we don't take them on. And the reason we're for that is because we are very good at recognizing the launching pad and the ascension.
Starting point is 00:43:44 Just because something launches does not mean it ascends. It can fail. And due to the fact We're so specific on where we buy. We're doubly specific on where we sell, and we can always buy back again. Without mentioning names, we just stopped out with not even a percent loss on a couple of names, but since they didn't really move farther down, they're setting up to break out.
Starting point is 00:44:09 If they break out, we'll buy them again. And some of our biggest gains in the past is on the third try. That's what happens sometimes. That's number one. Number two, when we catch something, just hopefully we can let it run. We know one thing. If we're able to hold a stock for a year, we got some big, big gains. But of course, the market has not really enabled too much of that over the last few
Starting point is 00:44:41 between COVID, bare markets, crashing the growth stocks, the financial crash, and that was a crash. so we stay flexible with our eyes wide open and just hope for the best based on a lot of focus and a lot of hard work simple as that those are the mantras that we live by and stick by and that's how we're able to come on a live radio show and tell you exactly what we think on where the market is in what areas are the best, what are the worst, what's ascending, what's descending, and we hope you're listening carefully. And if you want that webcast, and that's a good one on Bull and Bear Markets, go to BGCCF.org, donate $20 or more.
Starting point is 00:45:43 We'll send you out the webcast. That all said, happy New Year. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. You will feel better. They'll feel better. We'll be back on Tuesday live. Take care all. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
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