Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Happy new year. We think!

Episode Date: January 3, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's January 3rd, 2003. Do you know what that means? For the next two to three weeks, I will still be signing my choice. checks, 2022. And yes, I still use paper checks. I like keeping paper checks. Hey, happy New Year, everybody. Hope you had a great holiday. We have lots to cover. Things to do. Specifics to go over. In case you don't know, let me introduce myself again. If you are new to the show, I'm Gary

Karlbom, this is serious talk on you and your money and everything that surrounds it, the economy, your job, the markets, the morons in D.C., and when I use the word morons, I am being generous as generous can be, and everything else under the sun. The debt, the deficits, the out-of-control government growth, the biggest bull market in history is government, you name it, we shall cover it as we move into the new year, but most specifically how to protect your capital in bare markets while everybody's telling you, don't worry, everything's okay, and a bunch of charlatans are going on the tube and telling you what to do when they never tell you that they've been telling you to buy all the way down. I can go on and on.

But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. and I just found out today I don't know how and I'm going to find out tonight but if any of you are Twitter geniuses I would like to know how somebody has been able to put up a Twitter feed

with my same address he's blocked me or she so I can't see it but somebody sent me a photo of it so I will find out tonight who do I contact at Twitter to get rid of it. The problem is I don't want to get rid of mine. They actually use my same address. You know, the at. That's so weird that somebody's able to do that.

Anyway, just letting you know. All right, a few things before I get going. Number one on the hip parade. Have you ever been up close at a football game, whether high school, college, or pro? I have, and I have many times. You know what? What I always say while I'm up close, at a football game. How the hell did they play another game a week later? How did they even practice a day later? How do they do a Thursday night game after a Sunday? They beat the living crap out of each other.

On one play, a normal human being on one play would be knocked out. And I've always wondered about something really bad happening. We don't know what happened to this young gentleman last night. We don't know what happened, whether he had preexisting or what they're saying. His heart got hit. We don't know. But I've always wondered that. And I have met, I was telling a buddy of mine that I met Earl Campbell many years ago at a casino.

I met Jim Otto many years ago, the center for the Raiders, who was in wheelchair the rest of his life. I met Earl Campbell. He was on two crutches, two. these guys kill themselves they really do so we wish him well and as a side note i don't know if you know this but this gentleman unknown unknown gentleman i believe he was drafted six rounds and then he uh somebody got injured and he's been playing and playing very well his name's damar hamlin so let me tell you what he did. You know, I always laugh when somebody says our country sucks and all that.

I've always said we have the most generous country in the history of the world. He had a go-fundmate for toys for his neighborhood. It was at $2,500. After this happened, I don't know who put it up, who posted it. It's nearing $5 million. of generosity from the people this country unreal prayers for this young man yesterday i drove back from new york did for two days first new york to raleigh to visit my goddaughters yesterday raleigh to orlando florida let me state for the record i'm never doing that again the trip to raleigh not as bad

no traffic. To Orlando, traffic. How to get off the road a few times. Took me 11.5 hours. And of course, I came down with a little, whatever you want to call it. And I took a COVID test as usual. You know, you take a COVID test now if you catch a cold.

I'm negative. So if I sound a little under the weather, 20 hours of driving in two days. And I had one big disappointment. You ever been to this place called South of the Border? It's between North Carolina and South Carolina. You see these signs about Pedro. I've only been there once, stopped there once, many years ago when I was a kid, and it was fantastic.

It really looked old. Didn't look like it used to. Maybe it's because I'm adult, I don't know. Hopefully they're still doing well. Great idea. If you've never been there, it's called South of the Border. I may cough a little bit and I don't have a drop button so you'll hear me cough. Ah.

Okay. So last year, what's the lesson? Listen to nobody. Pay attention to price. Listen to nobody. Study the characteristics of bull and bear markets. Pay attention to nobody. When things top and mass, it's usually meaningful.

Pay attention to nobody. Use very good stops so you can never lose big. Pay attention to nobody. They've been telling you all the way down, don't worry, while we've been telling you in bare markets, leading stocks on average dropped 70% from the highs. You know, we've got laughed at for saying that. Nobody laughs anymore in real time,

even though it happened at 08, it happened in 2003. Pay attention to nobody. Go get the book, how to make money in stocks, by William O'Neill. Go get the book Secrets of Profiting and Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein. My book is going to be in print again because we're out. We're going to have that out to you again. Go study.

And by the way, don't read these books. Study these books. Study them. Don't pay attention to anybody when the Dow leads and the NASDAQ lags. That's bad. Don't listen to anybody. When yields skyrocket, that means the cost of capital is going up and the price of assets is coming down.

Don't listen to the people in D.C. Don't listen to the Treasury Secretary. Don't listen to the Fed. All they are is easy money. Morons that created the inflation and now were forced to fight the inflation and more than likely you're going to get it wrong again. Just remember from the president on down,

they were telling you, don't worry. It's transitory. Remember that? Now they were either lying or the BS. artist. Either answer is bad. That was last year. As we head into 2023, what's our message? Don't listen to anybody. Pay attention to price. You know they've all come out with targets for 2020. Where the market's going to be at the end of 2023? Really? They know? We've said that every year. They don't know. They just put a number

out there based on nothing. Why do we know they're BSing? It's simple. How many variables are out there? A bazillion. A, you've got to deal with the whims of central banks here and around the globe, which sickens the hell out of me, but we have to deal with it. B, Russia, Ukraine, are they going to do anything else? Is North Korea, excuse me, is China going to go into Taiwan? prices they've come down are they going to skyrocket again interest rates it's 3.8 they were 4.3 what are they going to do you think any of these people know and then there's 40% of the NASDAQ 100 Apple Amazon Google Microsoft Tesla and maybe that shifted recently because Tesla's got younged what if they keep going down so just pay

attention to price up next today I'm Gary this is the one-only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-9. investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells where. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge.

The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. Next. Don't pay attention to anybody's reporting. Do your homework. I just saw somebody report,

wow, the NASDAQ had a big increase in new yearly highs today. That's got to be good. good. I'm laughing my rear end off. Do you think they even looked at what the new highs are? The NASDAQ is showing 133 new yearly highs. Isn't that good? Well, let's see. I have 100 plus SPACs that have been dead money that just sit at the price they come out of. I'm going to put up one right now. L-I-T-T.

It's a blank check company. They don't have a company in it. Put a new yearly hide today. How about G-E-N-Q? Genesis Unicorn. They have nothing. At least 100 of the 133 of these SPACs. you ready next i got about 20 names that were down today and half of those are you ready

no sales biotechs no not making this up there's been froth and speculation in the market maybe 10 or 15 no sales biotex have at new yearly highs stunning huh you think that's good for the market not so sure so new yearly highs on the NASDAQ are you ready I have simple MLCO it is a Chinese casino company in Macau and they also own no that's that's mostly where they make their money from that loses a ton of money that's at a new yearly high but it's still down 50% from June of 18 one simple IQ, a Chinese company, $6 stock, new yearly high, two, Amdocs, DOX. That's a new yearly high. Three, that's it.

Out of 133 stocks, three new yearly highs, by the way, you know what else is a new yearly high? The Apple inverse ETF, the Tesla inverse. ETS. They didn't think about looking at those. You know, they came out with ETFs to inverse some stocks. Not making this up. So somebody's reporting 133 new yearly highs in the NASDAQ. There's only three. What do we tell you? Do your homework. On the New York. I've got a few. Tencent music, TME, New Yearly High. Las Vegas Sands makes a lot of money in China. Two China names. Vip Shop, VIPS, New Yearly High. These are three Chinese names. Turkcell, a Turkey Cellular company at five bucks.

Novo Nordisk, a drug company overseas. Elf Beauty. Banko Argentina. That's it. That's your whole New Yearly highs in them. Oh, wait. Nope, Decker's. I was going to say Decker's, but it was down $10 today. So, ladies and gentlemen, as I have explained, There's so much BS being spewed on Wall Street, especially during bear markets. So watch yourself.

I was laughing when I saw somebody post 133 New Yearly highs on the NASDAQ. There's three. I think this person has more followers than me. Anyway, what else? We said it earlier. When the Dow leads and the NASDAQ lags, that's bad. That means risk appetite is leaving. That's what happened a lot since October.

right today's market rap is brought to you by investment dash models.com that's jim morback one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models dot com the Dow was only down 10 today the NASDAQ was down 80 what more do I have to tell you let me repeat the Dow was down 10 today the NASDAQ was down 80 The Dow, the good news, was down about 280 today at the lows. It was like the, at around 245 today, they just jimmied the Dow up. I'm not making this up like 200 points in four minutes. That's the good news.

Also, I guess the good news is the NASDAQ at one point today was a 10309. so it was down about 160. But you can just tell the only way the NASDAQ bounced up is only because the Dow rallied. That has to change. Now we'll keep telling you what's leading, what's lagging, what's better, what's not. But we're letting you know

one of the major characteristics of a bull market is risk appetite. And it was good to see the Dow bounce back. Oh, by the way, That is the good news. You know what the bad news is. The Dow at the open today was 33-387. It was up 260 early.

Hmm. The NASDAQ early was a 10-6-1-3, was up 130. So I can say the good we bounced off the lows. I can say the bad. We opened up hot and they sold it off. And then the NASDAQ lagged again. So the NASDAQ was down 8 tenths of 1% with the Dow flat. The S&P was down 4 tenths of 1%.

You don't want to see that. Though I will give a little bit of due that the advanced declines weren't so bad today. But of note, last week we were telling you of certain areas topping out. They worsened today. I will go over those areas completely for you. Because as we tell you, it's not just the Dow S&P NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100 transports and all that. We follow 200 sectors and sub-sectors, every country, every commodity.

Much more up next. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with you. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, uh, if any of you are Twitter geniuses and know how somebody was able to use my address to post me, mimicking me, and get away with it on Twitter, please let me know. And who do I report it to? I'm going to find out for myself, but fast track. If any of you know Twitter really well, email me at, uh, Gary K.com or G-Colbaum and call-bomb.com. Real quickly, the Republicans can't even get their act together

voting for the Speaker of the House. And if they don't get their act together, they've got to be careful. Just so you know, just because there's more Republican House members now, voting Speaker of the House, Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrat, minority leader. can end up being it. I doubt that happens, but that's how bad the Republicans are. They're morons.

Again, you know we can't stand any of them. The Democrats are Marxists. The Republicans are Democrats slash socialists. They're all just killing the future. You know, the Republicans all of a sudden care about deficits and spending, right? They didn't say a word under Trump. who took the championship belt on deficits away from Barack Obama. You know how tough that was to do?

Thus my motto, they all suck. Anyway, we've been telling you energy has been topping out. Coal has been topping out. Solars have been topping out. They worsen today. Big time. We would avoid. You got that?

We're not telling you what to do if you own them. you get to decide for yourself. We tell you what we think. Energy. And some are way topped out by now, some better than others. When you get a chance, you look at the OIH, which is stronger than most. You can see breaking the 50 day today, easily. The XLE, which is worse than the OIH, better not break 8265.

And the XOP, which is worse than all of them, broke below the flag. The bearish flag today. That's the explorers. Oil prices drop three bucks today, which is going to be good at the pump. But wonder of wonders, what does it mean? There's worry about the economy, right? We have this inverted yield curve, which is not great news. It's usually indicative of real trouble in the economy.

It's a very widespread of the yield curve. The 10-year closed at 3793 today. point seven nine three the two year is at four point three eight nine that's what we watch you ready for this one the one year's at four point seven three four point seven one three holy crap that's some stunning stuff coal stocks topped when you have a chance look at C-E-I-X AMR A-MR A-R C R C R C R C R C R C R CH HCC

We've been warning you about solar's Topped EnPH is really topped and that was holding up well First solar the one that was holding up best broke the 50 day now and is living below it and SEDJ Topped Managed care those are HMOs United Health in the Dow Which was down 18 today only finished down 11 a half

Helping the D. helping the Dow come back. One big gigantic top. M-O-H in the group. Big top. Eumana. Big gigantic top. Now the good news is by the close, they were off the lows, but not great. Signa holding up

best breaks the 50 day-to-day. And ELV, which is Elevents, what used to be Anthem, topped. So there's three sectors right there. Three more that were holding up. I think there's a pretty good chance here, at least a few of them already, of the steel stocks. Big biotech.

That's topped. That's in bad shape now. What's stunning is, as I've stated to you, a bunch of no-sales biotechs are at new yearly highs. That's not good news. Froth in speculation? Remember, at the end of bare markets, wipes it all out. What else? Tesla amazingly down another 15 today.

Make that 16 and change. Less deliveries than expected. Apple, down almost five today. Volume heavy. Now, you know, they were complaining, oh, the only reason things were getting bad at the end of the year was tax loss selling. Well, the tax loss selling is over and they were still hitting them today. Now, remember, at 172, I was on TV with a famed technology.

guy. He said buy Apple. I said sell. I take it back. I said I wouldn't be buying. I was asked why. I said it's a bare market tech technology and I thought that the rally that Apple had had during the summer was parking of money. It's gone from 172 to 125 yet that technology analyst gets to still go on TV, still telling you to buy Apple and not disclosing. By the way, I never said to sell and I've been telling you to buy all the way down, which pisses me off. Full disclosure, kids. That's all. If I'm wrong, guess what I do on this show?

I'm wrong. But there's a difference. When we're wrong here, we're wrong fast and wrong small. Wrong is part of this business. The greatest hedge fund managers have told you, it's what they do when they're wrong that defines returns. You know, we called counter trend rallies a few time in this bare market. A few of them worked. A couple of them didn't.

A couple of them topped out the next day. That's being wrong. But the next day we said, didn't work. See ya. That's what you're supposed to be doing with your money. Protect. So we're just letting you know, add the solars on top of what we said, the energy, the managed care.

And there's some individual names that are now topping out two that we'd be careful about. We'll get into a couple of those. But let us repeat today. Coming into the new year, Dow down 10 and the NASDAQ down 79? No! We want to see the Dow down 79 and the NASDAQ only down 10. We want to see leadership. We want to see real new yearly highs.

We want to see big breakouts. we don't have any. In fact, with the Dow down 10, it was another crummy day. I looked to my left on my high beta growth page, opened up all green, pretty much finished all red. Not good. Lastly, gold had a good day. Surprisingly so, because usually when the dollar is strong, gold goes down. Dollar was strong today.

Gold went up today. we'll stay on top of it. We watch the GDX, gold miners, and the GDXJ, the little gold miners. Simple for gold is GLD, or you can go look at the chart of gold itself.

Wish I had better news as we enter this year. But the Dow rally today into the close. That said, it was much higher on the open. So let's call it a continuation of a mixed bag of slop. that's the best way I can describe it. Little green in the financials today, a little green in economically sensitive, little green in the housing

because interest rates came down. Oh, and Chinese stocks were strong today. Surprisingly so. Do you know why? They have a crap load of COVID. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen. in apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guest's edge. with Gary Culper. Just a few other things I've read about during the holiday. And I kind of knew, but I want to let you know.

You know how a bunch of these cities are letting shoplifters off? I told you in New York City, a guy was arrested 31 times for shoplifting, let out 30 second time. Who do you think pays for that? Who do you think pays for that? Just letting you know. Target lost 600 million bucks. their estimate to shoplift, not even an estimate, they counted up, to the gross margin, $600 million.

Think about that. I read this. Have you been to Manhattan lately? They really should change the name of Manhattan. They should change it to Bong hit. Bong hit. Just walk the streets, it just smells like a joint that a bong hit. But they don't care.

Because New York's first legal pot shop opened up. It was so popular, they had to turn hundreds and hundreds of people away for the grand opening. So the government in New York City, New York, is happy to have more people stoned. You just want to let you know. As they drive their electric bicycles into people, one of my cousins, was hit by an electric bike and suffered major damage to the face, to the ribs,

almost died. It was a hit and run and nothing being done. I don't care what anybody tells you about the weed. If it changes you, it's a drug. And New York is a bong hit at this juncture. Next, the president.

You know, he told us, us, no American is going to pay higher taxes who makes less than $400,000. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. You see the new taxes on natural gas and crude oil and coal? Who's going to pay? Who's going to pay on the household energy bills or the gas bills? You tell me. It was a $74 billion stock tax. Who's going to pay that? Just letting you know. It's almost laughable. But wait a minute.

They say these things don't get passed down. Right? Right? Amazingly, the ECB, the European Central Bank, is actually accelerating. They're raising the rates and they're lowering of their balance sheet. That's the printing. Why do we say amazing?

Because they were the slowest to act on all the massive inflation. over there. What we think's happened since Jay Powell got them to print the money like crazy. We think they're following Jay Powell. Outcome? Don't know. But the unwind of all that continues. But rates have been going up there everywhere and we'll see how it plays out. Why? Every asset price. Every economic statistic, every data point, every decision made by every business and every human being on this planet was based on zero percent rates and the monumental printing of money. And not only is the opposite happening, but a big opposite. The SPAC boom, we warned you, there's now a liquidation frenzy. those new highs we were mentioning to you they'll eventually be gone and when we say new highs it's gone from $10 to $10.01.

All these companies cannot find companies to merge with so they're shutting down and returning the money. The tout artists like this chamath guy who made billions and sold off his stock win. Who loses the investing public? A damn shame. Another bubble. Popped. And by the way, I mentioned Target. They're saying American stores.

$94 billion problem. We're talking serious cake. Yet a bunch of these leaders still do nothing about it. As I was in New York City, the drug stores, everything's locked up. Everything's locked up. I saw other stores that doors were locked. The only way you can get in is allowed to be in. Not making this up.

This is what it's gotten to. Hopefully it gets better. You'll have a great evening, ladies and gentlemen. Drive carefully. Happy New Year. When you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. better. I promise. Peace out. I'll be on with Charles Payne tomorrow 2 p.m. And back here, same time. Bye, bye, bye all. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access

is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.