Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Happy Thanksgiving [11.22.2023]

Episode Date: November 22, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's the day before Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving to each and every one of you. If you're traveling, travel safe. If you hang with the family, enjoy. I am heading for Orlando International Airport right after this show. And for a change, I have to be driven there because all the parking is full. That's a first.

I can at least attempt it, but I said, screw it. I got a friend taking me. Right off the get-go, late breaking news, and it's changing. possible terror attack on the border, Canada, United States, a car exploded on something called the Rainbow Bridge, but they're really not sure whether it hits something and exploded or whether there's explosives in the car. But leave no doubt a car going 80 miles an hour into the border,

who knows what the story is, we'll know. Eventually, we're told that two people are dead that were in the car, and I believe a border guard may be injured. All I can tell you what this simply does is, if you didn't think there was security already for the holiday, well, now it's going to double up. You know, you got the Thanksgiving parade tomorrow. You got the, I hear the Orlando airport's packed today.

Absolutely packed. That's why I take a later flight because it gets less packed. So just letting you know. The other news, it was just a logical prediction. It looks like something is done with the hostages and it looks like possibly tomorrow Thanksgiving. just leave no doubt Hamas is not doing this

because they're nice they're the scum of the earth you never thought we can actually say somebody's worse than ISIS but this is they're 10 times worse they're doing it because excuse my French

they're getting their asses whooped and just remember they're a bunch of wimps they're a bunch of cowards You didn't see them running into the festivals with their fists up because let me tell you something. The Israeli women would have beaten the crap out of them, these little wimps, these little cowards. So looks like 50 hostages, but, and there is a little but, Israel is going to release also prisoners. And the question is, and just so you know, it's not hostage for hostages.

It's hostage for prisoners. They were prisoners for a reason. We'll know more of context as we get towards it happening. We'll see. The other things we are hearing, just so you know, terrorists have feelings also. A bunch of the terrorists that have been caught are now saying that a lot of the terrorists are now pissed off. at doing what they did because they were following orders from the bad guys. Well, they're all bad guys. And in case you don't know, there are some Hamas leaders in Qatar. There were $3, $4, $5 billion, have 100-foot yachts. They stole all the money for ammunition, tunnel, and themselves. And even the terrorists are now getting pissed off. That's going to be interesting as we move forward.

And lastly, on that front, we have a lot of issues. As you know, I talk about them all the time. I use a certain line with all of you. I've never been more optimistic on most of us. And after seeing some of the reactions to what happened October 7th, less than most of us. But I've never been more pessimistic on all of them. and that's everybody running the country. They've let us down.

They've let us down. And let's just keep fingers crossed that the next people that are running the show won't. The problem, it's going to be Trump against Biden, and they both suck for different reasons. That's my take. Anyway, happy Thanksgiving. Just wanted to start with late break.

news. Let's segue as we always do. So I got like 50 emails. Gary, what should I do with NVIDIA? You know, we're segueing to the market and NVIDIA they reported earnings. And do you know how I'm very careful with my words here? I really am. Now, just so you know what I do with myself, my peeps, when we put out or buy stocks, we buy them in a specific way. But we'll also mention to our peeps, hey, if this stock breaks above this price with volume and sticks the day could be owned. That would mean a stock is moving above range. Or we would say, hey, this stock is pulled right into support.

strong, normal corrective work, volume is heavy on the upside, light on the downside, right into support. And if you so choose, you may probe right here off the support with a couple of percent stop. That takes me to Nvidia. Envidia was down about

the aftermarket, seven, eight bucks in the aftermarket last night. As we came in this morning, we woke up, my usual, 6 a.m. And at 6 a.m., it was just back and forth. It was down 6, whatever. And when it opened, it got it all back. And Vitiate today, and bear with me, I need to make some points here. At the open, was actually up. It actually hit 50335 on the 935 bar.

So it was actually up about three, four bucks. It never got going. By 1020, it hit the low of the day at 476, down $22. What? Let me read to you two numbers on NVIDIA in case you didn't know. earnings were up 593% year over year, revenue up 206% year over year. That's following a 429 and a 101. But even with that 429 and 101 and 59 and 206, the stock in July was 481.

It closed at 487 today. How is this possible? The stock in August was 502. It closed at 487 today. How is this possible with such numbers? Well, as we have explained to you, the semiconductors, often, and I mean often, you get double ordering, you get overordering. And in the case of AI, there's a chance here. A lot of companies are just ordering like crazy in belief that they're going to need all those chips.

And maybe they will, maybe they won't. but the worry is everybody's already bought out which means we'll get to peak earnings P-E-A-K earnings in sales soon thus we're just posing that for you just so you know we're just posing it for you

but I have something to tell you about the trading of Nvidia so it end up finishing down 12 and a quarter today and I will tell you at one time today later in the day it got up to 494 so it's only down five bucks after being down 22 but then fell off and finished down 12 if if this is an if friday's a half day then we come back next week if in the next few days the stock washes out this selling and busts through the highs. And we'll call it around 505-ish.

There's your entry. With stops, I would say 490. So you'd have 3% risk and possibly tremendous upside. That's how I'm looking at it. Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it. Then the markets, then the news, and whatever else. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Now there's another rule. We're just doing NVIDIA since I got 50 emails today. and that's the big number.

So possibly you maybe start if it gets above 500, but really would have to stick. There's a law of big numbers in the markets that kind of sort of work a lot. You break above 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 500. And I think it's interesting that Nvidia just is having problems sticking that 500. So if it does stick, the big institutions will recognize it and say, get me more.

The big institutions will turn it to Jabba the Hut. Get me more. So just letting you know, and I don't usually get into the minutia. Notice the big word out of your handsome and buffed host. I don't usually get into the minutia, and we'll see what happens. And if it doesn't move, it doesn't move. There'd be nothing to do. Next, just want to let you know, I went to Publix here in Lake Mary today.

Got out of the place. It was raining. Got there. It was packed. Just letting you know. Don't know if it means anything, but just letting you know. Publix was packed and tomorrow we'll have the Bestagary Bear Market Part 1, Bestegary Bear Market Part 2 on Friday. A few years ago, we did two days in a row where we didn't do the show and I decided to tape Bear Market characteristics.

I will tell you it deserves awards. and if you just harness those two days, whoa. As I always tell my peeps and anybody who listens to us, we'll never own bare market stocks, we'll never own downtrends. We can't, we hate them. So the whole idea is to recognize what's bearish. And when the market bottomed recently and we turned,

what area did we tell you we were wary of? The oils. And guess what? Has completely underperform into downtrends of differing levels dependent on which stock it is. Oh, that's right. It's the oils. So just letting you know.

Now, interesting enough, I had something to say on the oils today. Listen carefully. Because something may have happened today. Oil prices were tanking today. Down another three and a half bucks. They only finish down a buck. So possibly some sort of near-term low when the oil prices are in. Just letting you know.

Don't know what it means, but I read the tape. That's what we do for a living. So today's market, Dow up 184. Goldman up 360. Home Depot up 380. Home Depot just recently Gapped up on crappy numbers fell off yesterday on lows

crappy numbers Home Depot reasserting may break above a little range here when I mean crappy sales down 3% year over year and you ready for this the last four quarters Home Depot? Sales

year over year and we use year over year for seasonality purposes. Zero minus 4, minus 2 and minus 3. Earnings. Plus 3, minus 7, minus 8, minus 10. That ain't no hill for a climber. And I love when people say, oh, earnings have been good.

Yeah, they're making it up. S&P up 18, NASDAQ 65, NASDAQ 167, transports 34, but advanced declines on the New York, 2 to 1 to the positive, 26 to 15 on the NASDAQ. So not a bad day there. And new highs better. I mean, we had zero new highs for a while. Definitively better.

And we're seeing it in differing areas, insurance, technology, software, stuff like that. So no complaints. And as I look at today, even, consumer staples that have been dead money? Not bad today. Not bad. Food, beverage, tobacco, household products, alcohol, and the like. Not bad. So I don't have much to complain about. Another good day. My area, real good shape. Real good. I got some more things to do as we go winter, Friday's half day, and next week. And let's hope this continues.

I get asked about crypto a lot. As I stated, there's about 30,000 of them that are at zero. But Bitcoin Ethereum, strong. Uptrends. You can look at the GBTC, which is the Bitcoin. Keep in mind it closed at 30. And keep in mind it hit a high of 58 in February of 21. So it's still about 45% off that high.

But definitely coming on. But I remind you, and I've said to you all along, 90% of the coins will go to, we've been telling you the same thing all along. 90% of the coins will be goners, at least. That's exactly what's happened with some hanging in there. And leave no doubt Bitcoin, Ethereum, and maybe a couple others.

I heard there was a couple others, but those are the main ones. And I really do believe they're owned by a select few, a ton of people that, excuse me, a select few own a ton of it, and they're never selling because they can't, and that's what moves them.

Don't believe a word. Anybody says on TV about going to a million, this, and that they have no clue. And the fact of the matter is, somebody's got to pay $999,999,9,99,000, $999,99,000, 99 cents for it to go to a million. Anybody who does that is insane. It's just the trading vehicle,

but it's in an up trend now. That's all. And so is some of the secondary names. I guess you don't call them secondary names, but like Coinbase, micro strategy, all that is is Bitcoin at this point. And if you don't believe me on the 30,000 coins, just Google, crypto exchange names.

I got a list here, 30,000 of them. 30,000 of them. Coinranking.com. Go to that one. That's for starters. Excuse me, 32,000 of them. Much more up next on Investors Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more my podcast. microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to

yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. I'm looking, by the way, just so you know, uh, Bitcoin's market can. is supposedly 736 billion is that possible aetherum 254 billion tether 88 billion something called b and b 35 billion so they're out there there there's a few and then it just sinks and then you just got a bunch of zeros and i got to tell you as i look at the list of these things that are

32 000 coins they try and just so you know this is just ordinary people trying to come out with coins to be next multi-billionaire. In other words, a bubble. And some of the names of these coins, I am telling you the people coming out with these coins must have been smoking the hard stuff because they came out with some quirky names. Here's one, my neighbor Alice. No, really. That's the name of a coin. They try to foist upon you. My neighbor Alice coin. that's a good one yeah right so i really don't have much to complain November 1st the market had that confirmation day but that that's meaningless unless you have follow-through and stocks and stocks have been coming on and it's been broad-based now keep in

mind we say broad-based it's airlines airlines have been much better but they're still down 30, 40%, what we look for is what companies are leading the market. Where's the leadership? And why? And as usual, it's been technology, and leadership

is, because of good earnings and revenue growth, I got to tell you something like a wing stop. Wingstop had a strong move. Three weeks ago, up 53% earnings, 26% sales,

close that day at 198, it's 234. 17% since the move on earnings. New yearly high. So there's a smattering of things out there. Good numbers. I've never been to a wing stop. And little did I know, they have 1916 restaurants in 44 states. I may have to stop in.

Check it out. Chipotle. They only announced 11% revenue growth, 19% earnings growth, and that was a deceleration over three quarters. Market didn't care. Had a decent reaction to earnings, market bottomed on the first. It closed that day at 1986. It's 2218. About 10%.

New Yearly high. Burrito City. What can I tell you? So there's a smattering of things. And again, we have no idea how long this lasts, how far it goes, but you had another decent day again today. Simple as that. And you know when you know what you have a better market? You buy a stock and it goes up.

Instead of buying a stock, oh, and it just goes down. Gee, Gary, aren't you a genius? But that's really how it works. You know, when I tell you, oh, somebody transferred and they got to, they got to be a genius. got 100 stocks and 85 of them are in down trends that whoever's doing that is buying them and all they're doing is watching them go down we don't play that game and we won't so oil prices which were down three and a half finished only down a buck so maybe that stanches the bleeding on the downside but we'd rather have oil prices go down of course and the yields were flat today

we've gone from 5% to 4.416. I will tell you one time today yields hit 4.365, so that bounced a little bit too. And the dollar bounced also, but no biggie. Also of note, well, I've got to, you know how I have told you one of my biggest mistakes ever is when I said that the iPod would be just like a Walkman, which it is, by the way, but I thought it would fail. You know what my second biggest one was? I still remember when it was announced

that airlines will charge for your bags. I believe I went on radio and said, there's no way the customer is going to go for this. there's no way it lasts. Airlines made $118 billion in the last year on these fees. By the way, that does include other things. Seats. They started charging you for seats.

Oh, you want an extra legroom? Pay 70 bucks. You want an aisle? Better than the middle. Pay a little more. 118 billion extra dollars the airlines made last year. Now, Joe Biden is promised to clamp down on the, he calls them junk fees. I call it capitalism.

And you know what people do? They change how they pack and they bring their thing on to the plane now instead of checking it and getting charged $25 or $50 or whatever it is. I was 1,000% wrong. $118 billion. That's unbelievable. But that also includes airlines like Spirit and Frontier that charge you nothing for your ticket, and then they throw this whole a la carte at you.

Anyway, just let you know. So Biden's at it. I wish you would stay the hell out of it. The guy doesn't have a clue about business. He's never been in the business world. He has lived off of you his whole life. He's been in DC since he was born Same as Bernie Sanders and the rest of the ilk also in the news Well, I love when you have important business owners in San Fran business owners In San Fran business owners are slamming the mayor person's name is London breed

downplaying crime and homelessness with the temporary effort to clean the crime-ridden city when the Chinese dude came in. And guess what's happened now that he's gone? It's back to being a crap hole again. Drug dealers, people sleeping and urinating and defecating on the streets, and the governor and the mayor don't do a freaking thing.

And somehow they keep being elected. It's amazing to watch. How do they keep being, it's so, you know what I was amazed at? Do you remember when AOC led the stampede to not let Amazon in Long Island City, which cost tons of money and jobs? And then she ran again. against, I believe was Michelle Caruso-Cabre.

It used to be on CNBC Democrat, but on the conservative side, AOC, who single-handedly screwed the city, got 80% of the vote. Which calls into question, do people just get their ballots and see the name they recognize the most? and just say, yeah. And by the way, those Amazon jobs were high-paying jobs. It's just amazing. Minneapolis, the same people who try to do defund the police and now Minneapolis crime up the wazoo. Yep.

The DAs. Eh, what, you rape somebody? Yeah, you can go out. Do it again. Oh, you think I'm, kidding go read it go read up the people that came up with the stupidest idea on earth if you shoplift one dollar less than 950 nothing happens to you 950 oh then it's trouble so they walk in with calculators add up to 944 no problem oh you shoplift 30 times you're good do 31

And they get elected again. Beats the hell out of me, kids. Good to see some people pissed. Up next, we'll take you to Thanksgiving. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. So, yesterday I mentioned to you a book. The Millionaire Next Door. The author, I believe, is Thomas Stanley. In case you don't know in my life, I have met people that made half million a year and more and went broke. I've met people only made $40,000 a year and became millionaires.

It's how they treat their money. I mentioned to yesterday also about this guy Jeffrey Holt who just passed away. 82-year-old man lived baron. Barron. And we don't want to live barren. I hear he didn't have a TV, a computer. I don't know if you want to go that far. But he lived barren.

He left $3.8 million to his community, a New Hampshire town. and it turns out and I think he went too far I mean you got to enjoy yourself a little bit when you got some bucks right anyway we're just letting you know as we head into Thanksgiving

I'm going to spend a few minutes on this because I've met a few too many it's how you treat what you make and save what you save not earn what you earn that matters there is nothing more important after health and family and the New York Giants, then knowing there's a nest egg to fall back on.

It is not a reach. I don't know if the number's right or not. I keep reading about people living paycheck to paycheck, how many there are, percentages. I don't know if that's true or not, but what's being reported is scary. And I really bring it up now because credit card usage is record highs. And of course, the interest rate on credit cards at record highs and savings rates have plunged.

And that's worrisome longer term. And I know gratification. Instant gratification. You want to live life. Well, we get it. But you should be living life smart based on a simple, long word. wherewithal I'm putting it up

where with all what is the meaning go look it up go look it up and I know there's a gentleman by name of Dave Ramsey who I've never met and he's got

much bigger following than me I have eight people listening to the show I think he has millions but he's right about everything he says credit cards for me are terrific A, oh, I get points up the wazoo.

B, I pay them off every month. I don't pay any interest. But a lot of people are. And that interest in the 20s, you know, credit cards now have to tell you. I believe how long it takes for you to pay it off if you pay off just the minimum every month. see in the year 2004 so just some food for thought

go get the book The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley and read it it really does talk about people that made millions that are broke and people that would make 50 a year and have millions

it's just how you treat it how you think about it and there is really ways around it A little tougher now. Rent, a lot higher. Housing prices, a lot higher. Interest rates a lot higher. Food a lot higher.

Good news is, gas coming down. We get it. Healthcare, insurance. Oh, you remember Obama? Oh, yeah, your premium is going to drop with Obamacare. They've tripled. Another lie from D.C. Just something to think about.

get your house in order if you haven't yet and you're in the morass of debt you take out a legal pad you take out a pen you go through what you earn after tax you go through your spending you're definitive that I must

I can't get away from this and start figuring things out treat yourself like a company treat yourself like a corporation we don't want you ending up upside down And unfortunately, there's some upside down people out there. The Millionaire next door, go check it out.

By the way, I get nothing for saying it. Lastly, as we move to Thanksgiving, I got to tell you, I give thanks to each and every one of you that actually listen to what I have to say. That may sound crazy. for those you watch on TV, on Fox, or here. I can't tell you how cool it is that you put your trust in what we have to tell you. Now, we do think we've worked our tail off to earn it, but that doesn't mean we're going to get it. So just letting you know, we're thankful for each and every one of you.

and when you walk up to me on an airplane or in a supermarket, or when I was at the Sagrada Familia in Spain, and somebody walks up to me and tells me how much they love me on Fox, we treat it big time. So have a great Thanksgiving. We'll be back on Monday. Best the Gary tomorrow and Friday. By the way, you should.

tape it if you don't not listening and when you hang out for Thanksgiving make sure you hug your family and hug your children they will feel better you will feel better have a great one everybody peace out good night this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to garyk dot com that's garykka dot com guys it's no use putting it off The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your

earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.