Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - head on a swivel [07.25.2024]

Episode Date: July 25, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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VAL-R-E Existances. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. And by the way, we mean that when we say that. It's Thursday, July 25th, 2024. serious talk on everything that affects you and your lives. We'll do the markets, the economy that they just told us was 2.8% GDP. And did I tell you I beat LeBron in one-on-one yesterday? We'll do the markets, the economy, your industry, jobs, anything that comes up that really matters. Washington, D.C., the election.

the Mets, I think, are now five games above 500 and just swept the Yankees, which I am thrilled about, and anything else. Thanks for joining us if you do not get this radio show in your city. We'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. If you'd like to email me, just be nice. Ladies and gentlemen So we know

We're not stupid here We know there's different strokes For different folks You know the old cliche We know there are people That have owned the S&P 500 For the last 20 years You shouldn't care about what I have to say

If that's the way you play it I've had people that have held stocks for 25 years that I have met. And fortunately, a lot of them have stocks that have done actually well. Like I met somebody, oh, I've had Walmart for 20 years. And then I've had some that are not so good. What we do here is manage the markets. And we're just big believers. and no perfection, but we're big believers that there is a roadmap to the markets.

And as we always say, what we are looking for is launching pads that turn into uptrends. We had a launching pad in gold a few days ago. It didn't work. We're out. Took a little loss. Made good bucks on gold in the last six months, but this move didn't. And if we have to board back again, we shall. and then of course there's the launching pad of invidion january and then off the last earnings report

which gave hay and then there's meta gave hey might we can go on and on and then you got moments in time and we have one of those right now as you know in the recent past recent past we have been how do i put it well we have talked told you, we love technology stocks. And the reason is there's such great growth in these companies because of productivity gains, whether it be software, artificial intelligence, certain types of semiconductor chips that go into this, that, and the other thing. We love growth. Find me a restaurant chain that starts with one restaurant and then ends up with a thousand in ten years. Oh, that's going to be a big stock. Find me a retailer. That starts

with a few stores and ends up with 500 of them. That's what we're always looking for. And I must say that those are kind of like diamonds in the rough, as they say, needles in the haystack, but you try to find them. And then you get moments in time. recently we thought we saw a cell signal on technology just two Thursdays ago. That was the day the small caps and the midcaps just lit up. They were dormant, comatose. They lit up. And part of that lighting up is what is involved with those small caps and midcaps.

And it turns out it's regional banks and other financials. and as we know regional banks have been dead, some economically sensitive, housing, things that haven't been working and leading up to that Thursday, we were telling you just avoid these areas and then Thursday happened. But that day also,

we thought there was a cell signal on technology. It reminded us of March 8th when you had that big, gigantic reversal in the semis and invidia and others. And since then, we had two more confirmation days in the NASDAQ, technology, and the like. One occurred on July 17th. That would have been a Wednesday. And by the way, that's the day we sold the rest of our tech that was Apple. and Amazon, we sold all their other tech on that Thursday two weeks ago.

And we hate not being in technology. We hate it because normally it means the market's in trouble. But what did the market do this time? It rotate into these other areas. Which takes me into today. And again, for those that own the S&P for 20 years, you couldn't give a crap and I don't blame you. we walk into today and the NASDAQ dropped 600 points yesterday. Let's see, the NASDAQ yesterday, last 17997, 17342,

650 whopping points for the NASDAQ yesterday. A huge drop. And early today was down 300. And we're like, wow. And then, after being down 300, at about 1015, it was up 100 by 1115. It rallied 400 points. And then, we're not making this up by 115, was up 200.

The NASDAQ goes from down 300 to up 200, and it's 115 p.m. and we're just thinking to ourselves that, okay, we got a washout. But let's see how we finish. What a washout is is after a drop, you open really badly and finish well. After Bing up 200, we finished down 160 on the NASDAQ today, 201 on the NASDAQ 100, led by them usual suspects. Remember what we told you, the makeup of the market. And it is stunning.

Six stocks making up 30% of the S&P, eight of them making up 48% of the S&P. Those six stocks are all tech. Of the eight on the NASDAQ 100, one of them is Costco. So I would like to tell you we've got a good feel for this shorter term.

I didn't have a clue today from minute to minute. Didn't have a clue. But we deal in an outcome. And all we can tell you is the tech market and technology, especially big, remains under pressure as they became,

and we explained this to you. They became so darned. concentrated that just any reversion towards the mean, not back to the mean, because if we ever get back to the mean, they're going to be a lot lower. Any reversion towards the mean on size and scope and concentration takes them down. And that's what we got going today. And I was watching today just trying to hold my tongue the whole time. Down 300, up 200 by 115, and then you finish down 160, with the NASDAQ 100, finishing down 200. So just letting you know, it should be obvious that the semis, the Sox, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, technology, big tech, mega-cap tech,

Microsoft was down another 10 today. For instance, AI are still under pressure. Interesting enough today, some of the smaller technology was not bad. I didn't see really any disasters today, a couple, but just overall, not bad. It is definitively a small and midcap leading market right now. And that's what did it again today. Mid caps, small caps, and then that areas, which we'll discuss up next. on this the one and only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show

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So, We're just letting you know where the money's flowing and I have to tell you, I hate where the money is flowing. We love growth. We love higher beta. We don't even need higher beta, just some beta. It is regional banks that are still way below the highs of February of a couple of years ago. But definitely on a relative basis near term, strong. The big banks on a relative basis, strong. Strong. Better action in the transports today. Truckers had a good day today on some earnings. Steel stocks had a good day today. This is what we call stuff. And then there's the economically sensitive. What do we tell you the two most important we follow? Caterpillar was up eight today in the Dow.

and United Rentals up 38 today to $754. And I must tell you, I was asking myself a question today. Just so you know, I ask myself questions all the time. I don't usually have the answers, but I ask myself questions. United Rentals, one of my favorite economically sensitive stocks the following. Just so you know what they do, they're equipment rentals to a ton of locations. I think they're even, they're in Europe too. The stock, not making this up, yesterday opened at $747, closed at $715.

Last I looked at 5%, right? A little less than 5%, right? Opens today at $700. So that's $47 on 747. Six and change in a day. Close at 754. today was up almost 8% from the lows. I ask myself, how do you play that? My answer is, I don't have the foggiest idea. We don't like crazy moves up and down. We like tight action. So that happened

today. That stood out today. And then you had Goldman Sachs on the strong side, Morgan Stanley, PNC Bank, regional banks, the KRE. was up another 2.5% today, not the biggest thing, but its recent breakout at 5,450, it's 5818, not the greatest of moves. But this move actually started at about $52. Talk about 11% in a matter of 10 days for regional banks. Other areas that have relative strength, defense. For a change, oil stocks had a good day today. And they just been very whippy. very whippy defense

Lockheed Martin yesterday and a little more today and today Northrop Grumman because as we say everybody likes a good war and I don't know if you know this but this is true I believe we spent in the year 2000

a couple of hundred let me get this right 200 billion on defense approximately in and around there I think we're nearing a trillion. And unfortunately, the Pentagon tells us they can't account for like a trillion bucks worth of crap. By the way, one of the first things I would do is sit down with the Pentagon and say, is it okay if I make you more accountable?

Because they're much bigger than me. They probably kicked my butt if I was too mean. Anyway, so defense and the financials, as I've said, and it's not just the banks. It's some of these, you ever hear of Evercore? It's mergers and acquisition, strong. And then reactions to earnings. Do you know Ameriprise today was up 17? Melina Health, this is one of the weaker managed care stocks, up 35, though, by the way, it was up about 60 at one time.

Service Now, this is one of those software companies, up 97 bucks today. 13% was up about 120, and that helps some others in the group today. Very good move. You had some hospitals up today, Arathion, IBM was up eight, so a lot of jello moving on the plate. So I got to deal with that right now. And of course, well, that was the good side. Did I tell you that booking holdings was down 150. How about West pharmaceuticals down 40? These are earnings. Pharmaceuticals down 46. Did I tell you, Eli Lilly broke the 50 day-to-day handily on volume. Down 39 bucks today. Edwards Life Sciences. You ready for this? Down 31% medical products company today. Down 24 bucks to $63. Lamb Research down 25. Equinix 24. Did I tell you Lulu Lemon? What the hell is going on there?

down another $24.47. So while there's good, Terodyne semiconductor, down 19 today on a big gap. So again, let me repeat. Dang. Dang. I'm just trying to keep my wits about me. I'm thankful and grateful. We sold the tech out. Not happy I bought the gold again, but very small minor drawdown. I'll live, though I hate losing a penny, and we'll see where this takes us because I've got to tell you, the action's insane. And today, let me repeat, NASDAQ, down 300 to up 200 to down 160 at the close. And I get asked, hey, Gar, how do you play this? I'll tell you how you run for the hills. You close your eyes, hold your nose, and pray.

Of course, I've told you plenty of times. I tried that. It does not work. And we have a couple of thousand more earnings reports to come out in the weeks ahead. We'll have, I believe, next week, Apple, Amazon. They're hitting Google on earnings. They're crushing Microsoft and meta right now. They topped out Apple before earnings. Even Costco's coming in right now.

The semiconductor is acting like the south end of a northbound jackass right now after leading the market. I was asked on TV today if I thought it was a bubble in AI and it popped. You know what my answer was? It better not be. In case you don't know, bubbles when they pop, they drop 50 to 75%. Seriously. So I'm not there on that, but we'll keep a watch out. And our goal right now with all this tech is just be patient.

let it go through the motions, let it go through the process. If it keeps going lower, you've got nothing to do. If all of a sudden one day it finds an area support and then stops going down and then for a couple of weeks sits around and turns up, good. Today, had a chance to put in what we call a washout. Didn't happen. Maybe tomorrow. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else.

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and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In the news. Southwest Airlines finally listened to me. They listened to me. Years ago,

I forgot where I was, but I actually was on one of their flights with an upper management guy at Southwest Airlines. And I don't even remember his name, but I introduced myself. Did not know I was on Fox or anything, but I introduced and said, by the way, I'm on Fox News as a Fox News business contributor. And I said to the person, do you mind if I gave you a constructive thought? And I just said, how the heck are you not charging for seats like everybody else?

how are you still doing this getting on the plane ABC and not monetizing it? Yes, you can pay a little money to be in A so you get on first and get whatever seat you want. But all these other airlines are, I mean, just coining money. And just remember, I was one that said to you, one of my beauties, I said to you, there's no way people are going to go for this. No way people are going to pay for luggage. No way people are going to pay for seats. Then again, I thought the iPod was just another walkman. And I said to him, you need to get rid of this idea.

Go charge people just because everybody else is. And then I said to them, you also should change your seats. Have some premium seats at front. People aren't going to get mad at that. they're going to love that and people are going to pay up for that. Well, that was like 10 years ago, so I doubt they got it just for me. But guess what they're doing? Southwest is finally going to be monetizing.

And that's smart. It's smart. I just haven't understood that they didn't. And I guess, look, I think Southwest has some of the best people working for them, the nicest people, the onboard people, our sweetest can be. The staff is terrific, so whatever training they do is fabulous. This was a good move.

They needed to fix it. So Southwest, just letting you know. And if you notice, I'm a big traveler, so I love talking about this stuff. Next, not necessarily in the news as we segue back to the market. I really am asked a lot about playing before earnings. Why not? well, I've noticed there are some courageous people on TV that will actually tell you two days before and you should buy it today.

I'm so confident. I remember one of them did that. I don't remember it was nine months ago, six months ago with Netflix and it opened down 50 the next day. And I doubt they were ever asked about it on TV again. There is a simple reason why we are shy about that. and it's a simple reason I can give you right now about the goings-on in the market as I speak. You see, there is a company called Dexcom that is a medical product company, I believe, for diabetes, what is it, glucose monitoring. It closed at $108.008. It's 72 in the aftermarket.

Last I looked, that's like 3, 34%. I got my rusty abacus in my head. Well, that's number one. Number two, Deckers. Well, first off, the stock has gone from 1,100 down to 841 in the last six weeks. It's 900 in the aftermarket, up 8%. You think anybody knew that Dexcom would be down? 30-something, but Decker's would be up eight?

Don't think so. Norfolk Southern closed the 223, down from 263. It's a 240 in the aftermarket. Nice move. Almost 8%. You think anybody would have any idea that Norfolk Southern would do that? I didn't. That's your answer.

I don't have the grapefruit. I can tell you in the last six months, got lucky on meta. The reason why we held into earnings and then in February earnings, the stock closed at like 390 and opened up at 470. It's because we owned it at 340, I believe. Somewhere around they were up $50, so we had cushion. But if I buy something today at $110, and three weeks from now it's $11, and they have to report earnings, I got decisions to make. That is part of my process. I'm different than others, not 100%, but that is part of the process.

And I've seen great stocks gap down. I've seen crap stocks gap up. Next on the market, Eli Lilly, completely broke today, drop $39 to $8.21. It is off the highs now of blah, blah. You know, if I can, it was 966 seven days ago to $821. my wondering is the greatness of capitalism is the ability of another company to come out with something that somebody already is doing, that maybe is not on patent or is or they can do it better or different, you get my point. I think there's a lot of that going on.

But I'm also, remember what we've told you in the long run? There is no way to stay skinny with a drug. if you're not exercising and eating right ultimately. Because once you come off the drug, you go right back to where you came from if you're not exercising and eating well. That's why we don't believe in fad diets unless you stay on them forever. It's exercise, but don't get me wrong. This obesity drugs have worked wonders in the short run. I'm interested to see how they work in the long run.

And the good news is a lot of companies have been coming out with, here's what you should be doing in conjunction with. So we'll see. I hope it works because I believe obesity is one of the biggest problems for our health care system. I read like a couple of years ago somewhere that if everybody in the country lost 20 pounds, that the spending on health care would be down billions. I know I read it somewhere. I should have kept it.

I think they're true. So we'll see how this plays out. I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out. Because I'm not going to use the word hype, but there was a lot of noise around it. And I have seen miracles of people what they were before and then after using. But I repeat, once you get off of it, then what are you going to do?

So just letting you know Eli Lilly and that other one, NVO, that's broken down also, as stocks. Wanted to bring that up. But overall, money flows small and mid versus big. Financials, regional banks, big banks, other financials. Stuff. Even oils had a good day. Stuff. Defense stocks. AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive today. Steel today.

Oh, by the way, Southwest Airlines was up a buck 50 today, which is about 6% on that news. Wish I had other things to tell you. The glamor stocks are now this second out of fashion. It started two weeks ago and thought there was a chance for some sort of a line in the sand today, maybe it's tomorrow, did not finish too well today. Again, our favorite line tomorrow is another day, but I got to tell you today, the head was on a swivel. And we're just happy, we did not experience it except for the stupid gold, which really pissed me off. Because it look really good.

Remember, what we're looking for is launching pads, turning into uptrends, And boy, it looked like it was ready to go a third time. And by the way, I'd buy it again if it did it again. Up next, we cover the great con job. Thanks for being here. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. Okay. Just a reminder of a few things. And just so you know, we're not here to sway, we're here to state facts. Good or bad. Bad or good.

With no bias agenda or ulterior motive. First off, in case you didn't see all the anti-Semitic Jew haters last night, they continue to show themselves. They defaced American legacy statues and then burn the American our flag. So they're showing who they are. They're vile. They're violent. What I don't understand, what I don't understand is I can only do things based on if I was the president of the United States.

Every one of those scumbags would be arrested. They are attacking the police. They were threatening lives. They all be arrested. and I would indict some of them with terror. And then watch what happens. There's got to be a point, enough's enough. And I'm...

Kamala Harris comes out today with, yeah, we didn't like this. And I'm just thinking to myself, I'm just go by me how I feel. While it's going on, if I'm the president or a candidate, I'm coming out with it. Now, let's wait a day because we need to decide on how we're going to say things or how we're going to do things and we don't want to piss off this voting block. It's just, anyway, the good news is, this is the good news. It is a minority of people. 99. some odd percent of us don't do what these morons are doing. The Biden administration just came out and said that Iran is funding a bunch of this.

duh, we had no idea, right? Do nefarious channels. Like to know more about that. But the good news is they show who they are. And then the politics of Pelosi saying Netanyahu is this, that, and the other thing, and a criminal, and blah, blah, blah, blah, that's all politics. Schumer trying to get BB Netanyahu out in Israel, just all politics. There's nothing to do with good or bad or indifferent.

These people have no conscious, no soul. It's just all about how are we going to get elected. So I couldn't give a crap about these people. But I do want to let you know a couple of thoughts here. Number one, let's start with Joe Biden. I'm actually happy for him. I am dealing with a 92 and a 90-year-old father and mother, and they are going

I guess you call it downhill my mom definitively has in the last three months downhill and God bless it the I guess man and a woman supposed to live only 78 79 whatever

they're in their 90s and they've been self-sufficient so every day's a great day I'm happy for Joe Biden because he should throw everything aside and just enjoy the rest of your life. It's 100% certainty. There are health issues.

Take care of yourself. So I'm happy the pricks forced him out. I'm happy about it. He shouldn't have to deal with this another four years. Remember, I'm no fan of the guy in his policies. I am a fan of people, human beings. So that's on one end. And I wish him nothing but good health.

But I want to make sure you know the great con. The media, in collusion with celebrity, in collusion with the higher-ups in the Democratic Party, screwed Joe Biden in ways we have never seen, and are delivering and messaging the gargantuan con on you. I just want to make sure you know that. and I know you know that. And the fact the media won't talk about it tells you they're blacking it out.

This is how it went. His poll numbers went down. They don't want to lose. You think they care about his health? They don't give a crap. His poll numbers went down. State by state. He would be the losing the election.

They can't afford for that to happen. They want to keep their power. So it starts with the celebrities. why they have influence. They get the Clooney's out there and some other of these people to yap away. That's where it starts. Then they get some of the newspaper op-ed jackasses who have been kissing Biden's ass for two years, three years. They come out.

Joe, you got to go. We love you. We love you. We love you. We love you. But you got to go. And then all of a sudden, Senator House, Senator House, Senator House. Senator House, they start coming out in droves, and then they threaten them with Article 25.

They threaten them. We will kick your ass out if you don't resign at the end of your term and not run. That's all that happened here. And of course, the other con is now they tell you how much they love him. He's the greatest. What a great record. He's marvelous. He's fantastic.

The great con. And the latest, in plain sight, for three years they were reporting that Kamala Harris was named the Bordersar. All the media reported Borders are, Borders are, borders are. Now they're telling you they were wrong. She was never made the Borders R. And why are they doing that? Because she sucked on the border, did nothing about the border. Complete failure on the border. And due to the fact that Biden's poll numbers on the border were less than Root Canal and Jock Itch,

They're afraid that her poll numbers will do the same. So what they're doing, perpetrating another con on you. By the way, this is all out there. The video of the media saying borders are and heading up the border and heading up the border and heading up immigration, heading up immigration, that's all they talked about. And then she failed. And now they're all backing away. So I just want to make sure you know these people don't care about you.

You're just a bunch of marks and votes. Please do your homework. By the way, both sides, just do your homework. We will cover both sides with no bias agenda, ulterior motive. We just want somebody to get in there and do a good job. And I don't care if it's an R or D, but I'm letting you know it's game on. Go look at the videos of what kind of scam they're trying to perpetrate on you. And we're done.

Tomorrow we'll be on with Cavuto, the great Neil Cavuto, New Now, or Fox Business Network. until tomorrow's same time radio show. Have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Have a great one, everybody. Really appreciate you're here. Big time. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

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