Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Higher Rates!
Episode Date: February 21, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.
Thanks of being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Not so sure you're happy that you're listening today.
It's Tuesday.
Well, actually you're happy.
It's Tuesday, February 21st, 2023,
and we're here to talk about everything that affects you.
The works.
The markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending, scams, shams, corruptions, the Marxists in the White House.
And anything else that comes to mind.
And when need be, a little comedy injected.
And today we need a little bit of that comedy.
Hope you had a great three-day weekend.
I must tell you, I'm going to get into the market in a couple of minutes.
And let's just say the title of today's market is the south end of a northbound jackass.
You can think about it.
I had this weekend some of the best three or four hours I have had in ages.
I think I've told you this story before.
Somehow, you know, in life, you never know where things end up.
My best friends in life I still have from elementary school, junior high school, high school.
But somehow it skipped.
college. And I had some very good friends in college. And I take full blame that I did not stay in touch with them.
You know, I could throw it somewhere else, but it's just a phone call, you know. And on occasion, I have met up with these people, but very rarely.
and one of them, we're not going to use last names to protect the innocent.
His name's Rob, and the best times I've had in my life, you know, family and everything.
In college, I have never had bigger laughs, better times than with Rob, with Dave and Lenny, these three.
and I met up with them this weekend and I have to tell you they didn't realize it but I tear it up a couple of times and it just felt like I mean we're talking decades
Rob I haven't seen since holy crap is it longer than that 37 years and it was like nothing changed
We can wrap. We can say it was fantastic.
And I'm hoping, at least I'm going to attempt to make sure that we stay in touch, see each other.
I mean, we're very, I mean, we couldn't have been any closer during college.
And yeah, it takes two to tango, right?
But I take full.
Because I'm a big mouth. You know me.
Anyway, I just wanted to let you know if you have anybody like that.
in your life go give them a call I'm such a doofus that I missed out and you know they all got
married have kids I missed out on all that I would have loved to be a part of all that and as I was
driving that went to South Florida we met up in Boko as I was driving back on the turnpike all I
kept saying to myself what a doofus I was and am and they've all done very well
And just want to let you know the story.
Pretty damn cool.
Anyway, that's that.
The rest of the hour pretty much sucks.
But we warned you last week.
We didn't warn you about what would happen today.
We always have the line the day before.
We have no idea what happens tomorrow.
But last week, our worries were picking up.
As you know, we gauge the market, we measure the market.
We have a good understanding of the movements of the market.
And we came into this week thinking, three words, market under pressure.
Three words.
Now, we've also complained to you during this rally that,
how the heck is a Seagate technology going up in price with a 90% drop in earnings?
I'll make that 93.
How is Goldman Sachs going up with a 69% drop in earnings?
And, you know, our next line is always, if they keep that up, there's no way this rally continues.
And if they continue with this bad earnings, look out because it's going to leave at this price ridiculous valuations, which will have a comeuppance.
Well, we got a pretty good comeuppance today.
But for the main reason we've been yapping to you about since mid-21,
Since mid-21, all we've been saying, if interest rates keep going up, markets gone down.
And of course, interest rates skyrocketed because the morons at the Fed didn't have a freaking clue.
You know, they were doves.
They caused the inflation, did nothing about the inflation.
Says, it was transitory.
Don't worry, everything's okay.
Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary, don't worry, everything's okay.
Joe Biden, blah, blah, blah.
Everything's okay.
It's transitory.
And we, me, little old.
me. I don't get the stats they get. We were able to tell you inflation's coming. Inflations here. And they
said no. Finally, they recognized it, slow walked it, played catch up, and now all of a sudden they're
the opposite. But the unfortunate thing about it is they have to be the opposite. They're forced
to be the opposite. Why? You see what you're paying at the supermarkets? You know, I do all the
shopping of Publix. Holy crap. I can't believe the prices I am paying for things. And by the way,
I heard the other day somebody said, oh, prices have been coming down. No, they haven't. Oh,
maybe eggs came down from whatever it was, but that was after going up like 200%. But for the most part,
nothing's come down. So that's still out there. And then we had a bad inflation number last week.
And guess what the market has to do for that?
Account for it.
How does it account for it?
Higher rates.
What did rates do again today?
Went up high or spiked high.
We're nearing 4% on the 10-year yield.
Up from 3.3 just 10 days ago.
You know what that is?
Cost of mortgages, cost of capital.
Cost of borrow, cost of everything.
Only good news is you're making money on your money.
Remember, you had zero percent interest rates
because of Powell.
Now you get a one year paying 5%.
Just so you know, you can get 5% risk-free, guaranteed.
I say that tongue-in-cheek because it's coming from our government.
But 5% one year.
It's competition for money.
So that's out there too.
And what did the market do today?
As stated, the south end of the northbound jackass.
What do I think of the technicals as the number one technician in the world?
not a good day.
It was bad, bad, bad.
It's the best way I can explain it.
I have yet to scan.
I know what I'm going to find.
How do I put this?
Remember what we said to you last week?
Some stair steps were heading down again.
A lot more stair steps headed down today,
including the indices.
And of course, if the Russell 2000 hits a stair step lower,
that's 2,000 stocks.
S&P 500, that's 500 stocks.
And that's how we measure this thing.
So near term, just near term support was broken, short-term support on every major index today.
But just near term, doesn't have to be the end of the world.
That said, it's an eye-opener.
It's a big eye-opener.
And it started last week, and it continues, very simply, interest rates going higher.
And I know there's other things going on.
the commies in Russia
one out of a nuclear agreement
the commies in China
is like in bed with Russia
the war in Ukraine
and what Russia may do next
I believe
I believe China is going to
do something with Taiwan in the next year or two
I think that
doesn't help either
and then what we told you last week
China stocks were breaking down
and certain things
so all we can tell you
yuck, ick, south end of a northbound jackass today.
And they really didn't leave many stones unturned.
Oh, did I mention Walmart said the customer's got some problems?
Did I mention Home Depot said the customer has some problems?
In case you don't know, Walmart, oh, they only do about, oh, did I say 600 billion in revenues?
150 billion a quarter.
Home Depot?
About 36, 9, 12, 140 billion.
One would think they know.
One would think they know.
So that was today.
Up next, we'll do the numbers.
I'm Gary. This is the one that only Investors Edge.
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We called bomb.
It doesn't get better than this.
And well, once again, to Investors Edge.
As you know, we are unbiased.
We call balls and strikes here on the political front.
We hate them all.
They've proven us out with $32 trillion of debt and counting.
As you know, there is not much I like about this president.
He's a control-free Marxist-slash-socialist.
And, of course, the last president, I can't stand either
because he's pretty much the Eddie Haskell of politics right now.
Go look up Eddie Haskell.
But I must state, and I know there's some people, I think a bunch of people on the right,
don't like what's going on with Ukraine and we're writing checks to them.
And one would suggest there should be definitely more accountability on that in oversight.
But I think it was absolutely terrific that he went there.
And there were people complaining he hasn't gone to Ohio where that train wreck is,
but he went to Ukraine.
People sometimes people just complain for the sake of complaining
because it's not their person.
To me, the president going to Ukraine and the dead of night
and then taking a 10-hour train, good on him.
Good on him.
And very simply, you're standing up against these creeps, these murderers.
As the President of the United States, the leader of free world, you want to do that.
And by the way, Joe Biden's like 100 out of 100 on bad foreign policy in my eyes.
But I like this move.
And I guarantee you the people that are complaining about this move, if it was Republican president, they'd be, oh, what a leader, what a great leader.
And that's what we mean by biased.
We lost any bias because we can't stand any of them.
We just call balls and strikes.
I'm sure we'll find something bad about by tomorrow to speak about.
I can speak bad about Buttigieg, the transportation secretary,
that still hasn't been to Ohio.
And he did an interview yesterday.
This is a presidential candidate one day.
See, Yachts.
He's a no-talent Yutz, some of the things out of his mouth.
And of course, then you got, what's this, Marjorie Taylor idiot?
she wants to succeed I guess she doesn't know in the Constitution there's no
secession right probably hasn't read that she probably hasn't read a dr. Seuss book either
doesn't sound like she's read anything what a moron and she got voted in too so both on
the right and the left as I've said to you I've never been more optimistic on most of us
I've never been more pessimistic on them because we keep voting in a bunch of I can't say
the word on this show. Anyway, and Trump's still doing his thing. You know, you know, Trump is?
He's the 11-year-old kid at the gym where two other 11-year-olds are on the basketball court and getting
into one of those pushing fights. You know those pushing fights? And he, Trump is the one on the
sideline yelling, hit him, hit him. All right, now I'm going to depress the hell out of you.
Today's market wrap. By the way, you want the press. It's like 85 here in Orlando.
And I hear it's going to be like 20 degrees below in Minneapolis in the next day or two if you live there.
Sorry.
Should move here.
Today's market wrap.
Let's call it today's south end of a northbound jackass market wrap brought to you by Investment
Dashmottles.com.
That's Jim Rohrack, one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.
Go check it out.
Investment dash models.com.
Dow down 697.
Home Depot down.
$22.45. That would account for, let's see, seven times his 14, seven times a little, 154.
I'll call it about 140 Dow points, just Home Depot.
What's interesting, Walmart was down five or six in the pre-market. It's finished up today,
but no great shakes. And just every other Dow stock was down.
Apple 4, American Express, almost 4, Amgen, 2.5, Boeing, 6.
Salesforce.com, three and a half. Chevron, almost two, Cisco one, Caterpillar, seven, Disney three, poor Disney.
DuPont, two, Goldman Sachs, seven and change, Honeywell, four and a half, IBM, three, and change.
Intel, one-half should be taken out of the Dow. It's comatose.
Johnson and Johnson and J.P. Morgan, both, too.
Coke was only down 30 cents. Why? When the market goes defensive, it gets money parked in defensive.
What's defensive? Food, drug, beverage, the...
tobacco household products.
Where was I?
Microsoft 5, Merck, only 45 cents, drugs.
McDonald's, buck and a half, terrible hamburgers, great fries.
3M, almost 4, Nike, almost 4, Proctrine Gamble.
Defense of only down 10 cents.
Travelers, 50 cents.
United Health down almost 8.
Visa, down almost 3.
Verizon, down 1, and Walgreens.
I get all my drugs there, down 50 cents.
Not a good day.
And just Dow down 697 S&P 81, NASDAQ 295, NASDAQ 100, 298.
By the way, the NASDAQ was acting great early last week.
The SOX down a juicy 99-something, transports down 490.
Advanced declines.
494 up on the New York, 3,571 down.
NASDAQ 760 up, 3,605 down.
You ready for this?
double the new yearly lows on the NASDAQ, the new yearly highs, and on the New York, just about as many new yearly highs as new yearly lows.
And if I look at the new yearly highs, it's probably non-operating companies.
Bond market up 1.27 on the 10 year, the 3.955.
It was 3.33 11 days ago.
And as I mentioned earlier, a one year is paying 5%.
three month treasury bill
4.8%
amazing
amazing
remember these were zeros
brought to you by
the
control freak
j palo
he took rates at zero and gave the middle finger to every
saver and now he's forced
to pay off every
saver just keep in mind
when you go short term if rate starts to come
down you lose those if you do
with three months. In three months, you lose it. You've got to do it again. So if rates come down,
the two year is 4.7. So if you want to go two years, you can lock in 4.7 right now.
Why is the 10-year 3.95, though? Isn't longer you go out, you're supposed to get
paying more. Right now, you have an inverted yield curve. The market is betting on lower rates
down the road because the worry is the economy. And the economy, the economy is, you have an economy
that has
savings rates plunging
and credit card usage skyrocketing
it's a little one-two punch
that could be a problem going forward
I wish I'd better to tell you
very defensive day today
very defensive day
and there's no football to watch this week
to boot oh I got you know what
isn't the the rocks football
thing on
what is it the USFL
I'm not so sure I'm going to watch it
any of that. Up next on the edge. This is that and the other thing and whatever else.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It's highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
By the way, my friend from college, Rob, if you go and buy perfume,
pretty much it's from him.
He's a perfume mogul.
unbelievable and I asked him how do you get into it and he said that he just I think he was he said
85 that somebody was selling a small business got in and just expanded the living heck out of it
I think he got bought out once and then did something and just he knows his you know how I know
stocks this dude knows his perfumes he is the king of perfumes he was mentioning to me what
stores he's in how many whoa
that's what you got to do ladies and gentlemen get into a business where it's so beloved you can get
into walmart or target and just sell the heck out of it whatever it may be or you know the
you know what i've been studying lately and by the way you all should be studying it too do you see
all these young people going on youtube channels and tic-toks and making you know
millions because they have all these followers. Do you know there's, let me be careful with this.
This is a true story. There is a woman from South America that started a YouTube channel
talking about toys in a kind of like a kid's voice. You never see her. She makes like millions a
year. There was a young eight-year-old that does the same, makes millions a year. You all should
study. If you are in a job right now that you're unhappy with, maybe you don't think you're
making enough, go read up about the people who make the most on YouTube, on this TikTok or
Instagram and all that, and see what they're doing. And some of it is just weird as all heck.
some of them do stunts don't do that i saw a couple of those stunts that that ain't happening for gary
but people are making millions because they're i guess they're called influencers some do stunts
i read one what was the other one i read that was so wacky oh eating somebody's eating
on one of these things
and have a few million
and guess what?
He gets paid by the food companies
to eat their food.
How the hell did that happen?
So I'm actually studying this stuff
because I think
I'm a decent-sized business.
I'm a nothing.
I was reading about somebody's making
$20 million a year.
I was reading some of these celebrities
that every time they just promote
something they get
$500,000 bucks.
Of course, if you promote crypto, you get in trouble.
And some of them paid fines.
Anyway, just letting you know, eBay stores, Amazon stores.
Remember that guy from Zappos started selling shoes?
He was sold to Amazon.
Of course, the tragedy happened.
He basically just went insane and he died.
I forgot his name.
There's a book out there.
He started selling shoes.
I think he sold it for like a billion.
And don't ever think there's not something else out there.
There's always something new that nobody's ever heard of.
And I can promise you, in the next 20 years, the biggest winning stocks are things we've never even heard of and probably even haven't been invented yet.
That's how it works.
Nobody knew what the hell on Amazon and eBay and a Yahoo was in 1994.
AOL?
AOL started with dial-up.
Dial-up.
So get cracking.
Take a weekend, spend a few hours, and just Google the word.
highest paid YouTubers, highest paid Instagram and all that,
and start reading about these people and what they're doing.
Because I meet enough people that say, I hate my job.
Well, do something about it.
Just remember, when I was a kid, we didn't have Google.
We had the Encyclopedia Britannica, and it was one year old.
The world is now open.
The world is now open to learn anything and apply yourself.
You just got to focus.
And Rob is the perfume king.
Anyway, no last names to protect the innocent.
A few other things of note today, besides the title,
The South End of a Northbound Jackass.
Very often in the past, when it was going on,
we would report to you about insider buying and insider selling.
And unfortunately, there's hardly any insider buying anymore.
You know what the last great one was?
It was in 2015-2016 when Steve Wynn bought 100 million bucks of his own stock in the open market.
Stock went from 60 to 200 in a matter of two years.
So the problem is we're just not finding any.
We keep getting asked about it.
And we don't know why.
What's the reason?
So just letting you know when something shows up, we'll tell you.
Here's the problem.
I'm going to give you one.
I just found out that CEO and president just bought PayPal at $76, $2 million.
You know what the problem with that is?
He also bought it $100 bucks in August.
Is this the guy I want to follow?
And $2 million for a CEO is like nothing.
So you've got to be careful about that.
So we're letting you know when we see big ones, meaningful ones,
like seven people at a company
and buy big, we'll let you know
there just hasn't been any
and just so you know we have made
very good money
in the past on that.
I remember Comp USA, the computer store
we made a ton on that
and I think in the 90s
and you know what they did?
Not only did they buy
they bought the stock went higher
they bought more
and a stock went higher and they bought more
they were averaging up
if there's any one
great characteristic that you want to see in people that run the companies, it's that.
And by the way, this is legal insider trading, not the illegal insider trading that all the
Nancy Pelosi and the rest in D.C. do that they don't go to jail for it, but we would.
So just a little note on that. And no, this PayPal one does not interest me whatsoever.
But we'll keep it in our file manager. And as you know, PayPal stock has gone from
only 309 down to 75 today.
Yeah, let's hold long term.
I saw somebody to say,
got to be a long-term holder.
I got two words for them and it ain't happy birthday.
Remember, there's a disclaimer and a caveat to that.
It's great to be a long-term holder.
Just make sure what you're holding is working long-term.
And if there's any evidence of that statement,
just look what's happened over the last.
since February 21 on some of the most popular names in the market.
Absolutely freaking destroyed.
Wealth destroyed.
And we don't want that happen to any of you.
So don't listen to that long-term crap.
Make sure what you hold the long-term works.
I'm awful long-term.
They're lucky I wasn't doing the interview.
Now, what do we do when the market's crapping out?
what's our thought process now well you get defensive that's number one we started doing that early last week
or was it the week before i'm not sure but there are two uh mottos about strong and weak markets
it's easiest to isolate weakness in a strong market well it's easiest to isolate strength in a weak
market you find those companies that refuse to go down while the market's getting hammered i want to know
every one of those names and i want to know why now we don't know what happens from here i don't know what
happens tomorrow i just know the stair steps are now starting to head down but every night we're
going to look at what's not going down what's holding up what's sticking up what's
actually breaking out in a bad market. Those can be leaders going forward. Up next. This, that,
and the other thing and whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you
by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual
Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles
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What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry,
I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might
someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at Spreker.com.
because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits
you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer
to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Investers Edge with Gary Culpa.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Thanks for being with us today. I'd like to say in the news and go through news. But man, oh man, just the most important,
part of the equation I know to you guys is what's going on with the markets.
Now, there's something else I said last week to you, and I got a lot of emails on.
I said to you last week for the first time, I think we're going to see very soon a worsening job market.
And we're not just talking about what's happened.
Somebody emailed me this.
there's been 159,786 employees in technology companies laid off.
We're talking about more broad-based.
And one of the emails was, how do you know?
Well, we really don't know except we've been doing this a long time.
We drown out all opinion, and we do our own what we call channel checks on things.
and it's not just going to be the mortgage application business,
which is going to get worse now if interest rates keep going higher.
It's not going to be just crypto and for obvious reasons.
It's not going to be just technology,
and technology is more of they just overhired.
They just overhired, and to me this is more or less going back towards norms.
I think there's going to be some clipage just overall.
What are we, 3.5%.
And I know that's a moving target depending on how many people are in the workforce.
I would not be surprised 5%.
Which, by the way, is still pretty damn decent.
But you know the old line, darkest before the dawn?
Well, it's the lightest before the dark also.
And we had the best number.
Or would we have 500,000 last month?
and I'm thinking we're just about there.
I don't know what gets hit worse.
I don't know where,
but I've advised you for the last year, year and a half on this show.
Make sure if you're an employee,
make sure that you're one of the go-to people at your firm
that they cannot let go because you are so important.
And that means they know you're working harder
and smarter and better than everybody else there.
Just remember, employers are pretty darn smart.
At least most of them are.
They will definitively keep those that they believe
are revenue producers, assets, leaders.
Their first people that will get lopped off
are the ones that leave.
that leave at 501 p.m.
The ones that have negativity.
You know what I mean.
You know, it's in every business.
I mean, I've been involved with some real winners in my lifetime in my businesses
and working for others.
So just letting you know.
I think it's important.
Can I be wrong, of course.
Pretty sure I'm onto something.
Timing of it?
Not sure.
But sooner rather than later.
Will it get real bad?
I'm not in that camp at this juncture.
That'll pretty much all depend on a lot of things.
The best news is there's not going to be any tax hikes this year.
The Republicans got the house.
There's not going to be any, I mean, there's still that $1.7 trillion spending nightmare.
but there's not going to be any more of that.
Pretty much the president is neutered on any of his Marxist
thinking.
So that's the good news.
But we just think that there's going to be a little bit to that as we move forward.
And we'll advise.
We'll get a decent feel because we pretty much stay on top of things.
Otherwise, the big news, as I mentioned, the president was in Ukraine.
10-hour train trip wow and I'm asked all day today in emails you worry about
geopolitics yeah when you're dealing with your dictators and the guy from China's
dictator guy from Russia dictator he's a murdering dictator and the guy from
China is hiding people who talk against them and they have about a million
Uyghurs in internment camps yeah I'm worried no doubt and the announcements they are
making, just a middle finger at the United States of America and all democracies.
Just one big gigantic middle finger.
You know, when you go to a basketball game, they have those big fingers.
Well, instead of a index finger, they have one of those sponge, what they made out of sponge, middle fingers.
And for the Russians to come out of the nuclear agreement, less than thrilled.
And you know what that is.
It's an act of desperation.
They're losing.
go look up how many Russian soldiers are dead
go look up how many
how much
armory they lost artillery
zillions
I wasn't supposed to be
I can guarantee you
I think they thought they were going in there
it would have been like
Stone Cold Steve Austin against me in the ring
and they didn't realize Ukrainians are a proud people
and they're fighting back
in a big way
and of course now they're getting help from other democracy
and that's good to see how this ends don't know but i really do believe taiwan's next and how that goes
i don't know because you know that's an island and what do we do about that that's another chapter
anyway i wish i'd better news on the market you'll have a great evening drive carefully
i'll be on a fox business network with uh charles pain tomorrow two p m hour don't miss it
And until tomorrow, you'll have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do.
It's pretty simple.
Make sure you hug your family, hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better, I promise.
And if you got some college buddies you haven't spoken to in decades, give them a call.
Have a great one, everybody.
Peace out.
Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's Gary K.
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