Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Higher yields. [10.21.2024]

Episode Date: October 21, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by your food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is October 21st. It's Monday. It's 2024. Hope you're having a good day. I had a good weekend. Celebrated my father's 93th birthday yesterday. 93. Up in New York. Well, they live in New Jersey. I posted a picture of him on my Twitter feed with asking people to wish him happy birthday.

We are up to 100,000 and 10,000 people that have, I guess I don't know if the word Not like but viewed And just a ton of them Wishing him a happy birthday So it was pretty darn good And he was definitely

Perky and up And all was good My parents got to meet my grandson For the first time And that was huge also So it was a very much a banner day in the Colpom household as my father turns 93 yesterday. Mom's 91.

Hope you had a good weekend. In case you don't know, this is serious talk about everything affects you, the markets, the economy, the election, your job, your industry, their con job. And we're going to bring that up in a second because eventually it's going to be important. And of course, the accentuation will be on the markets. Lots to cover. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should.

And if you'd like to email us, just be nice. Ladies and gentlemen, we've had no warning shots here. Do you know what a Gary K. warning shot is, right? A warning shot is when I come on to the radio show and I say to you, well, I just want to let you know that I'm starting to see some things breaking, important areas of support, and or moving averages. Fewer stocks are working.

Advanced declines are worsening. And we'll put that. in our file manager and hope and hope. We do not get any more of this. We haven't done that in a while. Well, we're going to quasi do a little bit today. We're going to report to you the numbers. We're going to report to you the numbers.

And then state for the record, we don't want to see too much more of this. And what do I mean by that? Well, in the past, how do markets get in trouble? What's our line? Little by little piece by piece, inch by inch, stock by stock, sector by sector. And underneath the weight, underneath that weight of weakness, eventually more and more get in trouble. Simple is that. That's all.

Not the end of the world. Well, we just want to report to you as we go right into the markets. The advanced declines on the NASDAQ today, first let me tell you the NASDAQ was up 50. The NASDAQ 100 was up 37. That's a fine day. Nothing spectacular, but up 50 and up 37. The advanced declines on the NASDAQ today were 1,247,

were 1,243 up, 2854 down. Well, how can that be? Well, it be. Because, as I have stated to you, a select few mega-cap names have a huge influence on the indices. When I Google the words, as I do this, NASDAQ 100, makeup, makeup, get this the NASDAQ 100 would be 100 stocks

NASDAQ 100 would be 100 stocks 10 names are 25% Apple Nvidia and Microsoft 23 24 over 25% 4 names are 31%

5 names are 36% 6 names are 41% 7 names are 44% Eight names is 47%. Nine names are 52% of the NASDAQ 100. Now, it's not as extreme on the NASDAQ. And guess what happened today? We alerted to you last week about Nvidia getting near the highs.

It broke above range today. A good day and finish at the high of the day. Now, has to stick. when we say broke above range well it hit 141 back last June closed today at 143 and change volume was tepid so not that great what else well this one did not break out today but was up a dollar 50 today and that's apple apple's number one invidia's number two nasdaq 100 between the two 17.5% of the NASDAQ 100. And Netflix was up after Gapping up last week

and a few others. Broadcom was up 10 cents but wasn't down. Amazon was up 12 cents but wasn't down. And we'll explain why was up since but wasn't down. Google was up 70 cents wasn't down. Why are we bringing this up? That's okay, right? nobody well the Dow was down 345 and the advanced declines on the New York were 893 up 31 28 down

and as we've always explained to you the market will tend to go bigness when it gets into a little bit of trouble we're not saying we're getting in trouble we're just let you know we don't want to see more days like today where the plethora notice the big words the plethora the plethora of stocks go down and a select few go up. That's all. Not the end of the world. It's cool. We're in the midst of earning season. Anything's possible. We're open to anything at all. But we just want to let you know that's of import. And we'll see how it plays out. Case closed. Not much more to add on that front. But on the other front, we did a midday webcast today and just letting you know it's getting a little narrower. Again, not the end of the world. It's just one day. But we're just making note, if you don't mind.

We're just making note that the market narrowed today. and we'll see what that means and it narrowed because of a reason and this is the important part of the equation and I hope I explain this well the 10 year yield

the bond the yield of the 10 year went up over a point today to 4.182 from 4.019 4.073 Now, why is this important and you may ask, wait a minute, I thought the Fed is lowering interest rates. They are.

They're lowering your money market rates. You're getting less on your money markets, but you're paying more on your mortgages. How can that be? Well, I know you are told the Fed has all this control, but they don't. We have made it perfectly clear to each and every one of you. the Fed had control when they conjured up to $9 trillion at a thin air and bought up the whole bond market and took things down to 0%. That's how you got your 3% mortgages. That's when he really matters.

And he created all kinds of distortions. But now he's lowering his rates. They're called Fed funds. And you can go look them up. It's what banks lend and trade to each other. But why is the other rates going higher? Up next, I'll explain. And what are the repercussions?

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income,

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Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low...

Listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to...

Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So why would the Fed lowering their short-term rates have long-term rates go higher? Well, because they think they're geniuses and not to worry about inflation anymore, or for that matter, the debt. Let me give you a little bit of investing 101 in a normal world.

Investing 101. Investing for dummies. in a normal world. Now, mind you, we're not in a normal world. We have a world that is controlled by our government. In a normal world, the more debt an entity has, the more debt an entity has. If they are going to ask people to loan them money,

in a normal world, they would have to pay a higher, yield to account for how much debt they have. On top of that, how markets work, the more debt you have and the inability to cover that debt, or if business heads south, the people that lend the money will ask for higher rates. Thus, the market will adjust to where that company or nuclear company, whatever it may be, a airport, whatever it may be, would have to pay a higher rate in a normal world, except when it comes to our government until it explodes. So in case you don't know, I have stated on this show, there's a great scam that is being perpetrated on you. And by the way, it does not matter if you are Republican or Democrat.

It's a gargantuan scam. A gargantuan con being perpetrated on you and me. It's gargantuan. It is being done by this administration in plain sight. In other words, they can't hide it. I don't know. 16, 17 months ago, they came out, and I'm not making this crap up. You ready?

the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Yes, your government that cares about you so much, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, you know, the opportunity economy person, opportunity economy, came out with the Fiscal Responsibility Act. You know what they said? Let me tell you what they said to you and me.

This will ensure that going forward the government is accountable and we are lowering deficits. You think I'm making this up? Go look it up. Go find the videos. The Fiscal Responsibility Act, since it's been signed, our deficit is up,

our debt is up $4.2 trillion. They are averaging, we're not making this up, $300 billion a month in debt, in August we sent them 3808 billion they spent 688 billion we're not making this up and let me explain why they're doing it it's because it helps the markets and the economy goes into GDP it gooses things it's a con it's a scam they're no better than con artists mortgaging the future to win an election.

But here's the rub. It couldn't have been passed without the Republicans. Why would the Republicans pass this? Let me tell you why. They're scared crapless because they always get blamed when a government shuts down, even though, by the way, our government never shuts down. They're wimps. And I've posed a question to you,

what happens if there's a day where the bond market yields are no longer looking at inflation, but the debt. Because what did I say to you? The more the debt there is, the higher the yield. The lenders will want. We'll see what happens. All I can tell you today, yields went up a stick.

The Dow was down 350, advanced decline sucked. A select group of mega-cap tech were up, including the almighty Nvidia breaking out of a four-month trading rate. Apple almost breaking out of a 14-week trading range and really no damage in any of the big names but underneath the surface a little bit on the rough side the good news is I do not see a lot of breakdowns but I do see some what I would call needs to be watched so let me state we do not want to see another day with a NASDAX up 50 in the advance declines or two and a half to to the negative. That would mean money is flowing out of the masses and into a select few, which will be eventually trouble. We'll keep you abreast on a daily basis, and we'll see how it goes. But we want to repeat, what a freaking scam being perpetrated on you, Republicans and Democrats,

and I almost throw up every time I listen to Kamala Harris at this point on it. And as you know, I have no love for the other side and the other guy. He was the last person I want to be running for president. But we cannot continue the trajectory and the lies and the cons of Biden Harris. And Harris is worse. Our tax proposals are just the confiscation of the economy's wealth and into their pockets. And another thing I want to repeat, I wish I would. would have ran. No, really. But the problem is I could not have beaten Trump in a primary. I would have

beaten Trump in the general. I take that back. Democrats aren't voted for me. I'd be up 10 points on her on a general. I would have blown her doors off in the debate and prosecuted her. But I will say this, I repeat from last week, as of today is winning. Up next. More on the markets. News of the day. Whatever else today, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space. With IKEA bedroom storage solutions, dressers, wardroves, full closet systems, even storage boxes. You can hold onto it all. Your vintage banties? Keep them. Those limited edition sneakers? They stay.

And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walk-in closet? The Pax's wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails, and compartments, so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The Stork Lint has six-door dresser is perfect for denim, sweaters, and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, TroFest storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun. From primary suites to playrooms,

IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead. Shop IKEA Bedroom Storage today at IKEA.us slash bedroom storage. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,

APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.

I open my mouth to say, whatever, a nine-year-old. wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So if the interest rates go up, let me tell you what will pay a penalty. Housing stocks. And they got hit pretty good today. I would say real estate stocks.

A few of them broke the 50-day moving average today. I would suggest the move in the financials would have a little bit more trouble. No doubt. They got pulled back today. Goldman Sachs was down almost a little. 11 today. For example, interest rates sensitive. Mortgage-related, rocket mortgage breaking down badly. But money flows today. Apple almost breaking out of 14-week range. NVIDIA got a little bit above. Netflix was up another 7 today off of the big gap to the upside on Friday.

And we'll see what tomorrow brings. Maybe today is just a one-off. One bad day. Let me just repeat. Don't want to see two or three of these. What does it do? It changes the patterns. It turns a lot of names down. And the more names that turn down, the more trouble. As I did a scan, I did a webcast early today. I'm amazed when I scan 80 semiconductor stocks,

74 of them look like crap, and six of them that are involved with artificial intelligence, strong, led by the Nvidia. And when I say strong, it's just breaking out of a new range today. Others haven't yet. So let me repeat. You don't want to see advanced decline figures that were more than three to one negative on the New York. We'll call it two, almost two and a half to one negative on the NASDAQ.

And the NASDAQ be up. The Dow did get hit for 344. The S&P was only down 10, though. And why was the S&P only down 10? Why was the S&P only down 10 today? With the Dow down 344. Would you like to know? Because I'm about to tell you.

Just like the NASDAQ 100 make up, the S and P 500 make up. I'm scanning that in real time. Are you ready? Apple and VDivier. Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, and Google. This 500, remember? Apple, Nvidia, 14, Microsoft, 20, Amazon, 23 and a half.

Meta, 26, Google, 295. Seven names are almost 30% of the S&P. That's how. That's how. They better remain strong. And they were today. And there's a rule of thumb when the market gets in trouble. They'll find these areas because they're very big and very liquid.

So I'm not going to say to you, you are on notice. I am saying to you, we do not want to see a second or third or fourth day like this. We'll keep you informed, ladies and gentlemen. By the way, I didn't even realize this that much. Let me make sure this as I got you. 1420, 23 and a half, 26, 27, 28, almost 30% is five, six names, six names, 30% of the S&P 500, 494 names is 70% of the S&P. That is some stunning influence, my friends.

Wow. Mortgage rates will be ticking high. in the days ahead. I'm still seeing what I've been telling you. Here in Florida, much more inventory, less sales, realtors BSing people about them, and a lot of markdowns. But may I state for the records?

Markdowns from Fantasyland. Do you know I see houses? When I look at houses, I'll go for the most expensive to the low. I'm seeing homes that went for $2 million in 2021 being put up for sale at $4 million in Florida. 100% in three years. Not even. They ain't getting it. And what I am seeing is a lot of houses up on Zillow and Realtor.com for 180 days, 200 days.

Starting out at $4 million. Oops, 3.8. Oops, 3.6. Up 3.4. and they're still in fantasy land. We look around the rest of the country, a lot of the same thing. We're not saying things aren't selling. We're saying a lot of things are fantasy land.

I don't know what happens from here because I got news for you. I had no clue that we'd have that big move to the upside. My guess, remember, I was wrong on housing prices. I was right on interest rates, and I thought when interest rates spiking, housing prices would come down. Instead, I did not put into the equation the 3-7, which for a while was 3-8. And what was that? Who in God's name wants to sell a home where they have a 3% mortgage to find another one and pay 7.5%.

Not many. I did not account for that. Dufous me. And that's what happened. And that came to you from the distortions of J. Powell. You know, I keep hearing people saying, maybe we'll get back to 3% mortgage. There's no chance unless we go into a big depression and J. Powell takes us down to zero again. Those 3% mortgages were manipulated by one man, rigged by one man.

At the same time, you got 0% on your money on money market. It's. Anyway, mortgage rates are going to tick higher a little bit here. Advance the clients bad. Narrow list up today. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Nice little jolt on the NASDAQ into the close. I was watching the NASDAQ rally in the last few minutes while the Dow just sat there down 350.

In fact, the NASDAQ, are you ready? The last four, five-minute bars went from eight, went up the whole 50 points. while the Dow just sat there. And by the way, the Dow today at one time today was down about 120. But you can't hide those big names and what they do for the indices. It's just like in the Dow. United Health is 571 bucks. Intel is 23 bucks.

I'm rounding. It's ridiculous. United Health, what is 20? five times more important an influence on Dow movement than Intel. It's stupid. Makes no sense.

They should change the way they wait things. Why? Because if there's ever a point in time where the big ones came in, forget about it. And only take 10 names. Take 10 names to crumble some of these indices.

The good news is right now, They are doing the job. In other news, and my Mets are gone. I'll tell you they played well. Got to game six. You can't leave 16 people on base against the Dodgers

while giving up 10 runs. So the Yankees against the Dodgers, I am hearing that average price for game one in Los Angeles for the Yankees Dodgers game, $1,141. That's average. That's average. I'm showing cheapest seat for game one in New York, which will be game three.

A thousand bucks. Who the heck can afford that crap? I was looking at Taylor Swift tickets. Oh my goodness. There's got to be a lot of people that have saved up for a year to go see her. God bless it. Demand, baby. Demand.

Up next. What else I got for you? We'll figure it out. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space.

With IKEA bedroom storage solutions, dressers, wardroves, full closet systems, even storage boxes. You can hold onto it all. Your vintage banties? Keep them. Those limited edition sneakers? They stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walking closet?

The Pax's wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails, and compartments, so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The Stork Lint has six-door dresser is perfect for denim, sweaters, and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, TroFest storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. stored instead. Shop IKEA bedroom storage today at IKEA.us slash bedroom storage. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable

tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar and suddenly I'm right back

sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low...

Shh. Listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Oh, and the $1,000 tickets for the Yankees' first game, that's game three of the series, standing room for a thousand bucks. standing room only and you should see how much it costs to go to

WrestleMania in Vegas my goodness speaking of that Disney they just came out with you want inflation Disney came out with these passes where you don't have to wait online but they're like 400 bucks for Disney World on top of the ticket or 500 bucks? I got newsfeats certain times it's worth it. The other ones are two, three, four hundred. Interesting. I watched Bernie Sanders on TV complain this weekend about the gouging lie and the inflation was not caused by government. It was caused by corporations making too much money. What a sick freaking Marxist control freak. Same guy who called for 100% tax rate above a million bucks.

Praise Cuba. Blames our corporation for inflation, but he says, I will not apologize for what the government spends. And they keep voting them in in Vermont. Methinks they're eating too much Ben and Jerry's ice cream there and getting brain freezes. I don't get it. If that guy ever got a hold of the country, we would be screwed like there's no tomorrow. Speaking of that, as I said earlier, I am pretty darn sure and I've been right up during elections. If the election was today, I think Trump wins most of the swing states.

I think, not that, look, the dude's insane. I can't even say what he said this weekend. Some of his policies are ridiculous. He's never doing 100% tariffs, but he says he will. 75%. He says he will. I got somebody emailing me saying, he didn't say anything about the military and the National Guard and his enemies.

Somebody emailed me that. It's on video. Now, there is no way Trump will ever do that, but he says it. It's insane. And then he does something really smart. He went to McDonald's. And you know how you know it's smart? He's smart because the morons at Newsweek and AP and MSNBC and the rest are all whining and saying how fake it was.

Newsweek did a story that, oh, they didn't even pass an inspection there. It was a great move. And of course it was fixed. What is he going to do? Have just anybody come through the drive-thru? There's been three assassination. Well, two-plus assassination attempts. The people are morons. It's a great move on his part.

He's winning of the elections today. And the reason is, and I mean this, I think they had a better chance with Biden. She's empty. I've watched. And by the way, you know me. I'll give credit what credits do. I don't care who it is.

I've watched. It's almost a comedy act. The things that are said or not said. And my favorite part is my values haven't changed. Even though her proposals are polar opposites from four years ago, so which are we supposed to believe? Back on point, we can't continue this trajectory. We're running into three to four trillion dollar yearly deficits as we run right now with nobody saying anything. She's going to try and confiscate trillions of dollars of wealth from the economy and going to do nothing for nobody.

Oh, yeah, we're going to give you this, we're going to give you that, we're going to give you that. Remember what I would do. Get the hell out of your way. That's all. Just get the hell out of your way. they're trying to turn this country into a control freakism socialist Marxist haven for them. And it nauseates me that the only person that can stop him now is Trump. I'd rather have somebody else.

I will hope if he does win some semblance of order is put in place. And he gets some presidentialness. You know what I mean by that. Because kids, we keep doing great, and they keep kicking us in the grapefruits. We're the economy, not them. We're working our tail off, not them. They're castigating Elon Musk because he dares think's a different way. Think about this, Starlink.

Look what he's done for the world with Starlink. Electric vehicles. SpaceX. magnificence. They hate him because he dares disagree with them. How dare he? But they tell us they're the party of what? The party of diversity and tolerance. They have no diversity and they have no tolerance. We'll keep on trucking. We'll keep on talking with no bias agenda or ulterior motive. We're a couple of weeks away, and we'll let you know how it rolls. You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better, I promise. If you go on Twitter, wish my father a happy birthday at my little Gary Coltbaum site. Have a great one, everybody. Thanks for joining. Peace out.

Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum. On BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

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