Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Hot Opens-Cold Closes

Episode Date: March 6, 2023

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is March 6th, 2000, 23. Hope you had a good weekend. As always, mucho to cover, both in and out. of the markets the economy them and we'll have a little bit on them today you know who they are the Morlocks go look up Morlocks and whatever else comes to mind here on the hour that we have your attention this is Investors Ed's

Ed's serious talk on you and your money with a little comedy injected thanks for joining us today if you do not get this radio show in your city we'll post it at gary k.com we'll also post it on our Twitter feed you should follow us on Twitter are very sarcastic and charming. You can press the button at garyk.com to join the Twitter feed or go to Twitter and put our name in. You can email me. All you got to do is be nice. You may disagree with me vehemently, but just be nice. It's pretty simplistic. It shouldn't be hard. So Thursday, market opens week, finishes up. Friday. Friday. day, strong day, because yields plunge. Today, the market opens hot because yields were down early.

Yields that were down early finished up, the market comes in. The absolute direct correlation continues. Follow interest rates on the 10-year yield. They go up, bad for market. They go down. Good for markets. Eventually, the correlation will change. Interest rates in the market have always had a correlation, but it has been as direct as direct can be. February 2nd, yields bottom, the same day the S&P topped. And last week, when yields started coming down, markets rallied.

The issue, how far are they going to come down? The issue, they reversed it up today already. So should be an important week. You got the Central Bank Dolt Powell going to be yapping away. I think he does this thing on Capitol Hill. They'll ask him questions and he'll be as usual Dufus self. They don't really get anything out of him. He's very lucky I don't ask them.

the questions. That's all. He's very lucky. Remember, he's the one who caused the inflation. It wasn't the Putin price hikes. He caused the inflation. He caused the bubbles that destroyed wealth when they all popped, especially if you got in late. He's the one who screwed every saver with zero percent rates, distorted every price. and yield when inflation hit said there wasn't any when he realized there was some said it was transitory it'd go away when it didn't go away uh-oh thus doofus and he's still running the joint so that's going to be going on this week and we'll watch closely but just to be blunt today and as we said Friday off of that good day we have no idea what's going to happen Monday

day. We just know. Thursday was a good reversal day. Friday was a nice day. Today we're already, they reversed it to the downside already as they reversed yields to the upside today. Already. I wish I had better news. That said, when you have a chance, you know what I want you to do? go look at a chart of the S&P and just take a big picture look going back to May. And what do you really have? Well, you visited 3491 on the S&P, but that was a big reversal low. What you have is basically the S&P between 3,600 and change, and let's call it 4,100 and change.

And that's it. I mean, you moved a little bit above it once, a little bit below at once, but most of the time contains. And that's what you got going here. Can't get going to the upside, market holding the downside. How long this lasts? I have no clue. NASDAQ, weaker than the S&P. Basically, since last May, had a couple of visits below 11,000.

but if you really look at it, yeah, we'll call between 10 and 12,000, give or take, bigger picture. And today, a disappointing day. Best way to explain it. When the markets open up hot, you want them to stay hot. And I use the word opportunity. When you open up hot, you have the opportunity to have a great day. Instead, the NASDAQ was up 140, finished down 13. And notice I talked to NASDAQ, that's your.

risk off and risk on. Now, that's just today. That's just today. We'll see what tomorrow brings. We have no idea. Powell's going to be speaking. God only knows what he's going to say. Actually, God doesn't know what he's going to say. So, today's market wrap, brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com. The Dow is up today, 180. finished up 40. The S&P today was up 33 finished up two and change. The NASDAQ today was up, let's see, 11827, 152, was up 139, finished down 13. And you can set your alarm clock on when the reversal started to happen today. Because that's when 10-year yield started to go up today.

Simple as that. The 10-year yield today, which hit a low of 3.923, closed at 3.983, and up today after being down decently, that did the trick. The direct correlation remains. and disappointing day because there were some things that shot out today. I had to do everything in my psychological power to not buy anything today. Psychological because on a hot open, the thought process is, oh man, I better get some things here. But we know by evidence from the market, a lot of, a hot opens have been sold off. And it didn't take a rocket scientist today. When the Dow was up

150, the Russell 2000 and midcaps were down. And my screens had a bunch of red indicating narrowness for the day and probably wouldn't take much to turn it. It's exactly what happened. China, weekday, housing stocks, weak, retail, weak, semiconductors, weak, commodities, weak. I should stop there, a lot weak. And with the Dow up 40, you ready? Advanced declines on the New York, 1491 up, 2475 down.

On the NASDAQ, 1450 up, 2840. six down. Terrible advanced decline figures. And one would suggest, since we have our ear to the ground, a lot of people that were really excited and bought the open today probably stopped out before the close. So the moral of the story and one of our mottoes continues to be, they ain't going to make this easy. you've got some cross currents that really do matter you have an inverted yield curve which pretty much 100% of the time indicates recession if not worse

months away you've got manufacturing numbers that are not very good service numbers not very good debt and deficit skyrocketing but employment strong GDP looks okay we'll see what happens to more. Up next, lots more. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Calbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio

people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goal. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9.

That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. advisory services offered through Colbomb Capital Management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

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You're listening to. Hey, good. promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what once again to Investors Edge.

By the way, again, go look at a chart of the S&P and the NASDAQ, and you will see since last May now, no gains, higher, lower, in between. And that's after a big drop. We are off the lows, definite improvement. But man, oh man, every time it tries to get going, N-a-malet over the head. And for lack of a better word, today sucked. And again, it's about opportunity.

You have a strong up day. The market has an opportunity and just blew it away. Gone. History. Again, tomorrow. Jay Powell speaks. I actually hope he says nothing. I hope he says nothing.

as usual BS will wait for the data to come in and just says nothing. Less is better with these people. They control too much. I've said that a few thousand times. There is leadership in the market. They were all up early. They were all so down late. Most of my buying going forward is going to be on pullbacks. Why? Evidence at hand. I mentioned before the cross currents. I didn't mention earnings. Earnings stink.

Seriously. Overall earnings stink. And that's a possible problem going forward. As I've stated to you, there are some excessive valuations on a bunch of things. And I think the market is hoping. a major reacceleration and earnings. Not so sure that's going to be. I did some channel checking this weekend.

I see some slowdowns going on. Did some malls. Did some stores. Small sampling, but decent one. Hasn't failed me too often. And of course, major league. Savings rates, decline while a doubly major league credit card usage skyrocketing and it's that one little one-two

punch that I just said that has me worried the most because eventually credit cards run out you better be able to get a second or a third or fourth or a fifth we're pretty much away from earning season though there's a few this week Oracle, that one matters. But then after that, nothing in the way of big names. So somewhat on the quieter side. Dick's Sporting Goods reports, that's been a strong retail. On a drop in earnings last three quarters.

Seems like a lot of that is going on. I wish I can report better things. We've got a market that's going to wear people down. Ain't going to wear me down. I'll be patient as patient can be. You better be. I've been getting a bunch of emails. I guess, you know, there's some front and center people.

One guy, I think from Morgan Stanley that got the bear market right says we're going to drop 25% from here. For starters, we just put all that in the file manager. Remember, all you need to know about the market. market is what it's doing that's all you really need to know of course you need to get a feel for what we do and get to try and get the big picture right the big overall picture not the two to three day moves big picture has nothing to do with two or three days but disappointing day nevertheless today uh on the nasdaq just as many as new yearly lows as new yearly highs that's not so great either but just overall mushy and disappointing

Because you came out nicely on Friday and you want the markets to go higher. Who wants them going lower? Not I. For you income people, the two years trading 4.88. Amazing, huh? The one year, the one year, 5.06. I bought some 5.2% one years the other day. Got me 52.

and remember you measure it via risk there's no risk you have no risk and you don't pay state and local or you pay federal riskless this is the thing that j pal screwed you out of for a very long time and amazingly he doesn't get blasted for it again he's so lucky i'm not on there he's so lucky me asking the questions forget about it you want to talk about a video moment that would be one of them and that would be a video moment

if I got to ask questions of Biden Trump and the rest of the misgrants I do have a lot of news today that has everything to do with you and your wallets especially if you live in the cities I'm going to be talking about today.

But the big story in Portland, for my Portland peeps, two more Walmarts going by-bye. And that's, by the way, KBNP in Portland, 1410. Two more Walmarts are out of there. And you do know why. Sick and tired of the theft. Nobody's penalizing criminality.

Enough's enough. permanently closing its last two stores in Portland and that's months after the CEO warned of the thefts Delta Park and Eastport Plaza shopping centers in north and southeast Portland March 24th gone 600 jobs gone it's just the latest instance

of either moving or shutting down they can't take it anymore you ready for this Walmart Dame LaTrucks North America Nike Airbnb Batman Nana Republic, Microsoft, Saucebox, Google, U.S. Postal Service, Umpqua Bank, Salt and Storer. All left Portland. Top firms. Keep it up, Portland. Who's that DA moron? Up next, lots more. This is the one only investor's edge.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better. if you talk to it and walk once again to investors edge okay we start with portland more in the news what did we tell you years ago what would happen at the end of the bubble popping for crypto the crooks would be found out it happens all the time in bubbles something called bk coin that's not burger king coin is it bk coin the s cc is filed an emergency action against them for running a hundred

million dollar Ponzi-like scheme. Yep. Yep. Yeah. Interesting that three weeks ago we started talking about things and now everybody's reporting it. California wealth tax. They want to tax people even more.

Interesting. They've been losing their tax bases. People leave the state. They're running massive deficits even with all their taxes. they lost the court get this six of these high these are the high tax states lost a quarter trillion dollars in cumulative taxable income California 50 billion Connecticut 14 billion Illinois 47 I can just go on and on Maryland 14th you get the point and the amazing thing about it and we just deal in logic here remember I missed the logic the state center in Illinois was quoted as saying you'll have no place to hide. He wasn't talking about criminals. He was talking about successful, wealthy people that have too much money.

Imagine a leader of the community, a state senator, a leader of the state says, if you have a certain amount of money, you're going to have no place to hide. And they want to know why people are running out of that, Illinois. But you know what else is the other part of the equation? Why would anybody of wealth want to move to Illinois? A state senator said that.

You have no place to hide. Just amazing to watch. Amazing. Amazing. Amazing. Utter stupidity. The Fed. Would you like to vomit?

Well, the price tag. for two buildings in Washington, D.C. that houses the Fed to make them up to date, $2.5 billion of our tax dollars. Why do they have to update buildings? Why not take that $2.5 billion and feed hungry kids, house hungry kids? Do you know what we mean by the insane asylum?

our tax dollars are going to go towards an overhaul three adjacent office buildings on the National Mall, $2.5 billion, and they want to know why we're pissed off. Up from $1.9 billion, they raise the amount because the cost of steel and cement and wood has gone up. How about doing nothing? This falls under the heading, the usual heading. They don't give a crap about us. They don't care about your kids that need food. Three billion in the news also. In case you don't know, the housing market stalls, has been stalling,

even as the critical season approaches. It's the rising mortgage rates. It's the affordability. And the farther rates go up, the worse it's going to be. And rates have just gone up mortgage rates for the last four weeks in a row. Why? Because of the 10-year. A mortgage rate increase from 6.4 to 7.4% would have the same effect on affordability as a 10% increase in the housing price. We don't want to lose the housing business, ladies and gentlemen.

electric vehicles they're bracing for another tough year do you know why because they're losing their ass they're losing so much money remember what we've told you here you know how tough it is to start an automobile company and have longevity can you name one that started in the last god knows how many years i got one anyway rivianne which once had 12 billion from their initial public offering burn through $6.6 billion in cash last year. And it can go through another $6 billion this year. Guess what they're going to have to do, raise more money. And that's what's going on with the rest of the electric vehicle companies.

And I can promise you, a bunch of them are going to be out of business. Just watch yourself. Tesla 193. What is that? Still down 50 some percent from the highs? The president. I don't even want to tell you what I'm reading here. and the numbers that he's setting up for the government spending in the next 10 years off of what he just did.

Just remember what they always do in Washington is baseline budgeting. Spending always goes up. They're showing $61 trillion of outlays the next 10 years with deficits of $12.2 trillion. These people, I'm sorry. They're elected criminals. they're killing us and they never stop. They're laughing at us. They got the middle finger out and they're sticking it right at us.

Trillion dollar eat up. I don't even know what to say anymore. I've been one of the loudest voices but I've got nothing done. The Republicans are finally speaking up but they're full of crap. They're only speaking up about spending and debt and deficits because they're out of power. How do we know that? who are the last two Republicans? Trump?

Six to seven trillion of debt. Bush spent like crazy. I have no hope. And by the way, those are just predictions from the Congressional Budget Office. You know how far they're usually off? And you know the numbers are a lot higher, not lower.

And of course, the New York Times is out defending Biden on the debt and deficits. They have the nerve to put out an article today. Republicans, Republican votes help Washington pile up debt. Well, that's true. That's not the story. The story is Republicans and Democrats. Democrats and Republicans have piled on the debt.

But the New York Times and their biased ways, Oh, I gotta defend one side. We're dealing with an insane asylum. AI. artificial intelligence. Just letting you know I'm doing a very deep dive on it. Do you know, you're listening? Hungary is major testing ground for artificial intelligence software to spot cancer.

They've had success in being able to spot cancer in humans that otherwise doctors did not see. using artificial intelligence. So I'm just letting you know my next month. I'm going to become a genius on what this artificial intelligence is and what it means. And of course it supposedly gets better and better. Could be a game changer.

Not sure. But from what I'm reading, in some corners, you bet it is. Up next, more of this, that, and the other thing and whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one to only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge Access is subject to change. Change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual capital. Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome, once again, two investors' edge. I could give you the good news. My New York Knicks have won nine games in a row. And I think they're playing the best basketball in the league right now.

And they were out there tremendous point guard that they traded for this year. My Knicks, believe it or not, I think are going to be a force to be reckoned with. into the playoffs this year. They're that good. How about that for good news? And the Knicks for me have been a sea of despair forever. I have nightmares of John Stark's missing 17 shots

against Houston in the finals. I'll try to think what year that was these days. I actually was in the Marriott's, Marquis in New York City and John Starks walks into an elevator with me, I had to hold my tongue. He would have kicked my, you know what if I opened my mouth about missing 17 shots.

Glad he got out quickly. But back to the not so good news. That affects you. Another title, rise of kickback capitalism, which is not capitalism. The other headline, what the government does best is throw your tax money at favorite constituents.

You got it. Do you know in Biden's Inflation Reduction Act? $370 billion is being handed to John Podesta to hand out for green energy BS. For starters. $350 billion for state and local government and public union employees. $91 billion for pension guarantees. What? Another $36 billion to bail out union pension fund.

it's amazing to watch in real time the numbers are staggering the year before COVID our federal spending was 4.4 we're going to be above six this year that's trillion and that difference is all debt Joe Biden who's been lying out his butt at all of us about deficits in debt and how good he's been with it now takes the championship belt away from Donald Trump. And that was hard to do. He just raised federal spending from 4.4 to 6 trillion, all of it debt. Again, the big gargantuan middle finger at you and I,

and if you don't think this affects you and your wallet and your money and your future and your jobs going forward, I got some NFTs to sell you. Good coverage by the Wall Street Journal. Not so bad coverage on a couple of things on the New York Times, though. Unfortunately, they are ridiculous sometimes. And that's your bad news of the day. I wish I had better news. The bigger story today for you and your money in the markets.

We opened up hot on the NASDAQ, up 140, finished down 13. Why? because we opened up at 3.99, excuse me, 3.93 on the 10-year yield and finished up at 3.983. That direct correlation remains in gear. And regardless of Powell and the Fed, if we start seeing rates go above 4 again, especially above 4.3 in change, which is the recent high of a while back, market's going to go lower. I got a good question from somebody about, Gary, yields typically aren't supposed to move that much.

What if it just stays in a short trading range? Does that mean the market's just going to back and fill and not do much? I'd say yes. But that'll be the point in time where you separate. Where's the strength? Where's the weakness? Where's the big strength? Where's the weakness?

And where do you find the big strength? Just go look at the new yearly high list every day, see which group is in. and see what it is and see why. Go look at the greatest reactions on earnings reports and see why and watch them stocks for great bullish setups in hopes they have big gains. Look for companies that are growing their business much more than everybody else. If you can find a good restaurant chain that goes public

and starts growing their business 50 to 100% a year, I'm going to show you an unbelievable stock. I use MarketSmith. It's a software used to be called the Daily Graphs at the bottom. It shows me earnings per share versus the year before. Sales versus the year before. The growth versus the year before. And I can extrapolate quarter over quarter.

And you get a good feel for things. You know, for the last two years, once a month, I would go into a bed, bath and beyond. Amazing how empty. We used to have a Kmart here in Lake Mary, Florida. You know what I used to do? I used to go to Target, spend a half hour there looking around, and then I used to go to Kmart. All I needed was five minutes. Dirty, dingy, no service, shelves were not stocked, Target, bright, people smiling, a lot of shoppers. guess what Kmart store did they're gone guess what targets do it in lake mary strong that's how we roll so in a market that's doing nothing find the ones that are sticking out both ways have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do it's quite simple make sure you hug your family

make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i promise not sure TV tomorrow, but I am sure we will be back here tomorrow, same time covering everything you need to know with no bias agenda or ulterior motive. Have a great night, everybody. Thanks to joining. Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000

airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.