Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - How much DOGE will find! [02.18.2025]

Episode Date: February 18, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Monday. It is February 18, 2025. Hope you had a good three-day weekend. I did hung out with my 93-year-old dad, watch some movies, watch some golf.

And of course, when you go from 80 degrees down to 15 degrees and rainy and snowy and back to 70 degrees, you sound like I sound right now. Welcome to my world. Again, hope you had a good three-day weekend. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. and there is a lot that is going to affect you in a positive fashion that you may or may not have felt

throughout the last so-and-so amount of years, and we will do it on a daily basis on this show because it is your money. It is your tax dollars. We'll also, as always, do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry. and whatever else. Again, hope you had a good three-day weekend. My flight last night was delayed three hours because of the wind. I was on Delta, and I have to tell you, the first thing I did is I went up to the pilots,

and I asked them, I hope they're doing well because of what happened in Toronto. Wow. Did you see the latest video? I think what happened is they hit so hard because of a wind gust that the wing hit, snapped off, turned over, and amazingly, as I hear right now, nobody died. There was some injuries, some critical, but I haven't ever had anything since. Never forget that when you get into one of these airplanes, you're flying 550 miles an hour, 330.30. 35,000 miles, 35,000 feet up in the air. Yeah, that's the NyQuil.

And these pilots, they're fantastic. I shake their hands every time. All right. First off, it was one of those days where, let me explain it best. with let's see how many minutes to go with five minutes to go in the market the NASDAQ was 1963 and rallied up 78 points in the last five minutes

to finish up 14 points on the NASDAQ not making that up and it was low as 1909 so it was down at one time over a hundred and we love when things finish like that. By the way, on the open, it was 20,110. So it was strong, it was weak, and back to flatline at the end of the day. The Dow only finished up 10. NASDAQ 14, NASDAQ 14, NASDAQ 100, almost 50 because of a few big names.

The transports were strong up 197, Semiconductors were up 86 and just a lot of jello moving on the plate today. Oils bounced. Still nothing going on there. As we mentioned, the transports, certainly not an uptrend. Commodities better, not an uptrend. Financials. Goldman, another new high.

JP Morgan another new high. So the big banks doing pretty well. Other financials better. Just a good finish, and we like seeing that. Institutions usually make up their mind at the end of the day and usually meaningful. And we'll get it to the crux of it in a few minutes. But ladies and gentlemen, as we have said to you, for years on this show, we have been telling you how our government has been a headwind with debt deficits,

and corruption, where we would think in order to get a government grant, it would be hard. Hey, I'd like $10 million a government grant to do this and that. One would think you'd have to fill out applications, do interview after interview, because that is taxpayer dollars that you don't have to pay back. and what we are find out very quickly is that they were just handing it out like skittles to little kids in sixth grade. Make that. And of course, those skittles were being handed out. You know what we're going to find out to the buddies, to the donors.

And we're going to find a ton of back channel making money. And we're going to find politicians were involved. And we're going to find a lot of bad crap out there, ladies and gentlemen. That's why so many are fighting. And what irks me more than all of it is the media. When Clinton proposed this, when Obama proposed this, they were all for it. Now that the other side's proposing it actually following through, they're actually giving them crap. It's amazing to watch.

these people in Doge are saving you, your taxpayer dollars, in the trillions over time. And you would think the media would be celebrating and be happy. No, because it's the wrong people doing it. The media just continues to suck so bad. You had a CBS woman that this weekend came out and said that the Holocaust was caused by free speech or fighting a free speech? Are you ill?

They're nuts. 60 Minutes brings on a bunch of buzzards to talk about oh, they're losing jobs in government. Do you think 60 Minutes mentioned that 900,000 government jobs were created under Biden?

Nope. So, it's the doge moment, ladies, and gentlemen, I hope you didn't just finish food because you're ready. The Social Security Administration, we're finding out made $72 billion in-prompt of payments over an eight-year period. By the way, this is coming from the Social Security Administration. By the way, the head of the administration stepped down because they're pissed at Doge. Just letting you know. Don't worry. It's only money. Let me continue. By the way, on another note, in less than a month, the board is pretty much shut down.

Just letting you know. So those costs are going to be gone by the wayside. Let's continue. Doge found this out. You ready? 2 million from Moroccan pottery classes. 2 million promoting tourism in Lebanon. I already did the Sesame Street Show, 20 million in Iraq.

I did that one already. That's okay. I can say it again. You get where I'm going? It's unbelievable. An absolute free-for-all. Free-for-all. And again, 900,000 government jobs were created under Biden,

and they're trying to cut jobs, and people are getting pissed. It's amazing. Do you know what the wealthiest counties in this country are? seven wealthiest counties in America are right outside D.C. They're getting paid zillions. Let's continue because this is, I'm reading them to you. $10 million for Mozambique voluntary medical male circumcision. Only 10 million. 9.7 million for University of California, Berkeley develop a cohort of Cambodian youth enterprise-driven skills.

2.3 million for strengthening independent voices in Cambodia. 32 million to the Prague Civil Society Center. Let me stop for a second. You think all that money went to these things anyhow? You realize we're dealing with the Gambitos and the Gaudis. The checks are made and people are taking their tributes. It's a slush fund. It's a payoff.

It's a cesspool. It's so sad. It's so funny to read. some of these things, but it's so sad because these are our tax dollars. You ready? 29 million to strengthening political landscape in Bangladesh. 20 million for fiscal federalism in Nepal. 19 million for biodiversity conversation in Nepal. What the hell is that? What is a conversation? 19 million. How is 19 million going to a conversation? $14 million for social cohesion in Mali.

What the hell is that? Do you believe this? Up next. We'll put a bow tie on it. Make you sick even more. This is the one to only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-559. That's 888-4-22-55-9.

That's 888-4-22-4-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel. credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Let's finish this off. 47 million of our tax dollars for improving learning outcomes in Asia.

What is that? What is that? 47 million. Think about that. For learning outcomes in Asia. You see, I think they need to go further. I think they need to go to that. Not just the 47.

Let's do that one. And go to where every dime went. That's what it should be. Where is every dime? You know what we're finding out about Ukraine? They say there's like $80 billion they can't account for of the money we've given them. You would think the media would be crapping in their pants over something like that. But they can't because it's their guy.

what an unbelievable opportunity for the media to come out where the hell is this money nope what do they do they interview two people that are pretending to be part of people being of part of this whole thing and they're not they're one was a speech writer for Obama it was just bull crap on 60 minutes

two million to develop sustainable recycling models in Kosovo, but that's only 2 million. 2.5 million for inclusive democracies in southern Africa. It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable. 1.5 million for voter confidence in Liberia. That's a payoff. Here's one and a half million bucks.

What does that mean? For voter confidence? What? What? Why do they need $1.5 million of our dollars for voter confidence in Liberia? It's a payoff. Are you sick yet? And are you even more sick to your stomach that the media is pissed off at all this coming out? It's amazing to watch. Do you know they're finding in Social Security and there's different numbers so we're going to be careful about it? But we definitely. do know. Dead people are getting crap loads of Social Security. We do know this. Do you also know

that Doge has flagged 4.7 trillion of treasury payments that were not marked the way it was, it should have been, so they're not traceable? It's stunning. They were missing a critical code and now

tracing these dollars, $4.7 trillion. over time, they're never going to be able to figure it out. I think that one of the greatest things to happen for this country in decades is Doge. I'm not going to have to come on this show and talk about $2 trillion to $3 trillion yearly deficits. I'm not going to have to come on this show and talk about, oh, they hired 900,000 people in government the last four to four years, four years, and that was on the employment figures. And you do realize a ton of them are not necessary.

It's a cesspool. We became their big, gargantuan slush fund. And the lists are going to continue to come out, and I'm going to continue to report them to you so you get pissed off. and I can't wait for them to open up Pandora's box of names that collected. And there is no doubt in my mind. Some of this was funneled back to politicians. And you know how? Through one place, back to another place that hires one of the politicians to speak

and get 400,000 for a 45-minute speech, and then say it's completely legal. They really hate us. To do all this, they really hate us. It's sickening that I have to list these things. I knew it was bad. I have been talking about it for ages. I didn't know it was this bad.

They will find trillions. They will find trillions and we'll keep reporting. And for those that listen to this show, where's the market? And this is the markets. Are you kidding? This is the markets. This is the markets. If we can get rid of the debt and deficits,

if we can get the 10-year down to 3%, that's the markets. It all counts. And they've been so bad, Man, oh man. The possibilities are endless for things to be better. So we'll keep reporting it, but you know what you all should do. Google it.

Read for yourself. Be pissed. If you find a politician in your area part of it, go run against that politician. Enough of this corruption. Enough. I segue, market's still in shape. S&P, NASDAQ,

trying to move above range. If they do and stick, nothing but good news. We would down all day and finish very strong at the end of the day. Don't know the reason, don't care. Up next, we'll expound.

This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. They're zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your

wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet.

year. He's a senator out of boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Let's talk markets. Enough of the doge for today.

More will be coming out. We'll talk about it. So, just so you know, we've had some serious accentuated moves, both up and down. on earnings. We have seen absolute gargantuan blowups

like Bill Holdings, B-I-L, that's not a person. It's called Bill Holdings. Closed at 97 right near the highs. The next day it closed at 65 on an earnings report. And that was strength. How about

I'm just picking a couple out. How about Twilio closed at 148? Next day it's 125. Or GoDaddy, which was strong. Closes it about 2.14. The next day it's 181. But on the other end of the spectrum, you have Netflix.

which closes at 830 and the next day it's 9.50 and so on and so forth. We're just letting you know, since it's lesson time at Gary's Ranch, when stocks on earnings gap badly up or down, up good, down bad. it must be noted. Now, just because a stock closes 100 and opens at 125 does not mean it doesn't finish it 101 and gives it all back, so you're watching during that day. Just because a stock closes it 100 and opens at 80,

I can tell you Palo Alto networks just recently closed, not making this up, at 201, the next day, on earnings was 188, but closed back at 200. So you've got to see how they finish. We're just letting you know of importance, stocks that gap big to the upside off of an earnings report, not news, not a new CEO, but earnings. And stick have to be put on screen.

Because typically, if the market stays in shape. Often those names will lead for the coming quarter or quarters because something good is going on. The market reacted to oh, they were growing at 30%, oh, the quarter came in at 50.

Or guidance much stronger going forward. Conversely, is that other side. The company was growing at 50% and oops, they were supposed to come out with 75 cents earnings and came out at 60. And guidance came in lower. Stock pays a penalty.

That's why it's so imperative that you pay attention to earnings season. And that's what we're doing right now. Right now. And recently, Palantir gaps up, but bill gaps down. Netflix gaps up, but applied material. gaps down. Trade desk gaps down. Amazon and Google gaps down. But Roku gaps up. IBM gaps up on their no growth. Sometimes they go and it's a mystery. So just let you know some of our biggest winners throughout the years have been on these big gaps. And we have in our files,

dozens of them through the years. And as we said, not all of them work, but it is amazing how many do work. And sometimes very, very strong. And sometimes they'll gap in one quarter, and then two quarters later they gap again because things are so damn good. And typically, if things are going good with a company,

they don't all of a sudden go bad. Usually something's going on. A restaurant chain is opening tons of stores. A retail chain. Tons of stores. A new semiconductor chip. Well, you know what's going on there. In AI land, both up and downed.

So just giving you a heads up. and what we do is we have in front of us, we use a company called briefing.com. I think I pay 500 bucks a year. And they have ongoing notes throughout the day, but I get weekly earnings reports. After the close today, I can tell you, Occidental Petroleum, Devin Energy, and the oils.

International flavors and fragrances. I can tell you tomorrow is analog devices, and wings stop. So I know when somebody's reporting. I know what they are reporting, what they're supposed to report versus last year. So we're always ready to go.

And of course, I pay for this, but pretty sure you can get it free on the web. Google, I guess, earnings reports for the following week. That's the story. And we've seen good reports sold, bad reports.

it's bought. Sometimes that's how it goes. The market is a forward-looking mechanism, not a backward. So we're always in tune, always in touch. And then we close our eyes, hold our nose and pray. But that's the story right now. And whether it's going to be Carvana, Alibaba, Shake Shack, which was up seven bucks today, Walmart reports this, week or Texas Roadhouse never been in one may have to try one day we're on it and that's the story and of course it doesn't have to be a gap you can have stocks that are just breaking out of range we're all good with that too off of earnings reports and then of course if three stocks in a group are doing something good we're going to look at the other 15 in the group

because maybe something's going on good with the industry. Like right now, I don't understand how dear gaps down on earnings, reverses that day, and is skyrocketing off of a 60% drop in earnings and a 30% drop in sales. Beats the hell out of me. And by the way, four quarters of deceleration, it'll go without me. And of course, then there are others. Like simple APP that reported 250% earnings growth, 44% sales growth.

We want to know why. So therein lies little Gary Lesson time, and it's intensive, it's work, but we have the system pretty laid down well where we can work through it, even when you have 500 stocks reporting in a couple of days. because we know where importance lies and we know at the end of every day what was the biggest of movers because it shows up on our screen on price, percentage move and volume. And then the lists are made and we go from there.

And then we get to deal with the Fed, tariffs, doves, do. Fed again. Next quarter earnings. If oil goes up, does that hurt airlines? If oil goes down, does it help airlines? And all the intermarket work. Ongoing process for us, daily, nightly, and now I'm here and they're going to do 24-7 type of trading. Gee, thanks. Happy days. Up next, what else we got? This is the one only investors' edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venturex card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less

than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 air. Port Lounge is worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

So, on that note, already I have been on the screen, and I have something like F-O-U-R, which broke out in the last couple of days, but I can't buy it because earnings are coming out, and it's down 10% in the aftermarket. Symbol T-R-U-E down 11%, symbol C-E down 13%. How about Bumble down 15%? So that stuff is pushed to me.

I noticed Toll Brothers just came out and missed estimates both on earnings and sales, and that's down 10 bucks. Oh and by the way, what has been the worst stocks in the market recently?

the home builders estimates were $2.4. They came in at 175. Sales were 1.91 billion. They came in at $1.86 billion. That's how the stock is down. About $9 in the aftermarket, $122 to $113. But the big story, it was $170 in November. Bare market. And of course, we love staying. out of bear markets ladies and gentlemen and as we tell our peeps if you are able to stay out of bare markets you're so way ahead other things going on right now that I wanted to let you know intel Gary you're talking Intel up 16% today in fact it's up 35% in five days looks like there's talk about splitting them up, buying certain parts of their business, all kinds of news coming out. Keep in mind, it closed at 2730. It was 46 bucks a year ago. Keep in mind it closed at 2730. In let's see, April of 21, it was $68. And if you want to get real sick, it was $76 in the year 2000. Don't worry.

think long term. But I just want to bring that up because that's a very newsy stock right now. I do not own it. And do not plan on owning it as earnings down 76% last quarter. The quarter before down, they lost money and the quarter before that would down 85%. Gary, no like that. Not for me. We like plus 85. We like business going good. but sometimes you get some news-driven stuff and leave no doubt. There is lots of talk on breaking the company up and probably needs to. I'm not that privy, but probably needs to. And as you know, it was just taken out of the Dow, rightfully so, replaced by NVIDIA.

Yes, I think it was NVIDIA replaced. Yes. The number one stock we get asked about is NVIDIA. Still, I can tell you it closed at 139.40. Today, mid-June of last year, it was 140.76. So what is that? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 months plus, it's down a buck. mid-November was 153, so down about 9%, but definitely off recent lows when it got smashed because of that AI news.

And the last breakout, I lost money on it. It looked like it was ready to go and splat very quickly. I actually think I bought it on a Monday and sold it on a Tuesday. Yeah. But we did make some big cheese on the... the stock in 2024. And as you know, when we're wrong, we're wrong fast and we're wrong, small as can be. That would be the Nvidia. As I said earlier, and this is of import, the S&P closed a little bit above the recent highs of 6128, we're at 61.29. Boy, I'd like to see that

at 61.50 and get the heck out of here to the upside. The NASDAQ, you still got to get through 20,118. And I think earlier today you hit 20,110. And then 20,204. If you get out of here, that'd be very good news. And the fact that we finished pretty well today. And let me repeat,

I'm going to get the minute up. The NASDAQ in the last five minutes went up 19976, 24, 70 points. It was down over 50, finished up 14.

I don't know if any news came out. I don't care. We don't rationalize. We deal with. And we can tell you it's always good when we see buying into the close of the day. Always into the close of the day.

Other indices not as strong. The mid-caps still the small caps still ugh. Maybe they'll have their day one day. It still ain't there. Bigger caps rule. China, another strong day

without by-do that gaped out on their earnings. Japan, a couple of Japan banks at New Yearly highs. And Europe, even with their slow growth in some areas in recession, has been stronger. And into new high ground. The German Dax, I don't know what's going on there.

I keep hearing their recession. Stock is broken out. Germany. Into new high ground. So you're getting a little bit of worldwide, which is not a bad thing. Let me finish up by stating. I just signed the new contract with Fox. So you'll be seeing me on Fox Business a lot, Fox News, at least for the next couple of years.

So we're happy campers. You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Thanks for joining.

Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, Go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% of it. off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than

you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.