Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - HURRICANE MILTON [10.09.2024]

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by your food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom,

I'm your host. Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, because the wind and the rain is certainly here. And we're happy that you are listening. In case you don't know, this is a serious talk on everything that affects you. And right now we're going to be talking about the weather affecting on top of everything else. We will talk markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the Morlocks in D.C., the election. And of course, Milton is in the midst of arriving. We'll take care of that too. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you want to email me, just be nice. All right, first few things I want to cover. Number one, the Mets are up to 1 on Philadelphia. They go into game four tonight. They are just playing like a winning team. Let's hope that continues.

That's all I can tell you. They just, I've always said in baseball, the hot team and the Mets are pretty much darn hot. Well, they got to win one more game against Philly. Then they're up against the Dodgers or San Diego. I got to tell you, San Diego looks pretty damn good too. And that's our baseball for today. Ladies and gentlemen, in case you don't know, Uncle Milton is arriving here in Florida.

In case you do not know, I am in an area that is about 15 miles northeast of downtown Orlando. I'm about 35 miles southeast of Daytona Beach. We, well, first off, we don't know because there's tornadoes, anything's possible. but here I've been many times in what we're going to get here. We're going to get 75 mile power gus, heavy rain, maybe gusts a little bit higher. The big thing is tornadic activity. That's an outlier we don't know. But the west coast of Florida looks like.

like Bradenton area, give or take north or south. They're going to get smoked with sustain winds of 125, which means, 150. And in case you don't know, this is all water area. You get water surge, and anything is possible. really the whole of Florida is getting some of this to a certain extent. The best news, I believe, and you guys know, when I'm into something, I will study it to the death. The best news, it's at 16 mile per hour moving storm now.

It was eight hours and hours ago. So it's going to get through much faster. That said, I can't imagine the damage that's potentially going to get done. I put my family in a hotel about five minutes from the house. We're going to – me and Winston are writing it out. if it really and if we lose power here

we'll go over there because this thing's going to pass by mid-morning and then it's going to be sunshine in 75 degrees I've always been amazed after hurricane hits that it's so placid after it's over and done

at the hotel when I dropped my wife off everybody I spoke to was coming from St. Petersburg, Tampa, Bradenton, Treasure Island, all those areas. They all hauled ass over here. And a pretty good move. Let's hope it's the right move. The big question now for people like me is tornadoes because you just don't know. Anyway, that's the story. We always air on the side of caution.

we don't screw around with this and let me finish up by saying and this is not political even though it's going to sound it the Santis has done a fantastic job of being front and center leading knowing the knowledge base he has

about what needs to get done in hurricanes do you know they have like 16,000 or 20,000 trucks from the whether it's FPNL or Duke Energy I mean they've rounded these suckers up like there's no tomorrow he's done a real good job

I am real proud of him as a governor of a state he's handled it very well really commands the stage when he does a presser I think he's been doing two

three a day. And again, just my opinion, well done. Big time, well done. We move on. Where do I even want to go? What do I want to talk about? Oh, the markets. We're always careful with our words. when the markets are their strongest, we're careful with our words. When markets are at their weakest, we're careful with our words. We don't want to sound like when the markets are at their best, oh, and you got, oh, we just like talking in tones of what we're seeing, what we're not seeing, where the leadership is, what to avoid, and all that fun stuff.

When the markets are in the doldrums, we're in bare markets, same thing. We don't want to sound like the end of the world. We'll just say, these are bearish phases. These are downtrends. You avoid these areas. You avoid these dames. We will let you know if that changes.

There are certain things that happen in markets that give us more cashiered. conviction in the markets as overall. First and foremost is major indices in new high grounds and continuously in new high ground. First and foremost, of course, then we have to know what's making up the indices because for a while, it was 7, 8, 9, 10 stocks. The second part of that equation is when they start breaking out. of range-bound action

in the midst of ascending. What do I mean by that? The stair steps. You go up, you sit for a month or two, you hit an area where you can't get above, and in the third month you break above. It gives us more conviction.

Because at that point in time, let's say it's the NASDAQ 100 doing it. We run through the NASDAQ, 100 stocks. What's leading? And why? If it's the Dow, oh, that's even easier, it's the Dow 30. If it's the housing stocks even easier, I can go through 12 stocks. And then there's the S&P 500. Which, after going through a little mini meltdown with Japan, a stiff pullback in September for the last three, weeks have been sitting tight. At the close today, it broke above those three weeks into another new high. Now, just so you know, that's 500 big stocks. And we don't need to go to 500 stocks.

We have an idea what's leading, what's lagging, and why. But we just wanted to start off by saying, darn that's good that the S&P 500 broke out of this range. But there come to budisms, breakouts don't have to work. They can fail. We always tell you what we are always looking for are launching pads, breakouts, that stick, and lead to real strong uptrends. But every now and then, they don't work. Such as life. All we can tell you right now, this one, another leg up, may have started. Let's hope that's the case.

Up next. But what else is going on? I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-5559.

That's 888-4-22-55-59. That's 888-4-2-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. If you've been following the news, you know the world is dealing with a level of uncertainty that isn't going away anytime soon. Inflation pressures, global tensions, and the highest U.S. debt levels on record. continue to influence markets day after day, and the result is familiar to anyone checking their retirement balances or savings accounts. Volatility has become the norm.

In times like these, people often look for ways to strengthen their financial foundation. Physical gold and silver have served that purpose throughout history. They're real assets that exist outside the digital and financial systems that tend to fluctuate during economic stress. They're not a guarantee and they're not a shortcut to wealth, but they can offer diversification when things feel unpredictable. Preserve gold is committed to helping Americans understand their options with simple educational information, including how precious metals can be held in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver.

Don't wait. Text IHeart to 50505. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.edu. At the time,

I've learned some things, like the value of the family, the importance of the job, and that the 99% of

the people of the people have the virus that cause a Culebriya. Although not all the

people in risk, they're that I see the ruption dolorosa with

long and it's that even the things are all a simple,

not know you know about the way difficult. Talk about your doctor or pharmaceutical. Patrocinoed by GSK. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to.

Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So we're just going to tell you a few other things that are going on. And we want to remind you, we're not telling you to buy

sell short or cover we're telling you what we're seeing and what it means to us it is your money you get to decide we're very careful with how we say things

and our verbiage notice the big word verbiage well as we said the S&P broke above this little three weeks. The Dow at the close today. Almost. Closing high, but about eight days ago it had a big reversal day. The NASDAQ, not even close. Well, I take that back. In comparison to the Dow and S&P, as I stated yesterday, if the NASDAQ can get above 18-327. Did not do that today, but it's getting close. The NASDAQ 100, I think we mentioned 2273. It's 2268, so it's right there. And when you move above ranges, it just means the potential for stair steps higher. What we're also watching right now, and we can't do anything about it.

financials. I can tell you, Goldman Sachs, very important name, is in about a 15-week range-bound action. It's tightening up, but they report in five days. J.P. Morgan, same thing, but they report in two days. So you get the point there. We have to wait, look for the reaction, see what happens, because we're not smart enough to know what somebody's going to say and how things are going to react. But I'd like to continue. Big names. you know we're into big institutional type names and institution we're not talking about Bellevue we're talking about the big mutual funds the hedge funds we call it the smart money

we follow their leads and all we can tell you is big software name Oracle recently gapped up sat for a few weeks broke above the range today brought This is one of those semiconductor AI thingabobs.

And by the way, they did a 10 for one split. I hate splits, by the way. I'd rather pay 1800 than 185 for something. It topped out at 185 in June, went through the Japan nausea, had one retest, and has been building, and today at the close, broke above the June highs.

So we're talking 17 weeks of range potential breakout. Again, it has to stick. You combine that with Nvidia, which is not even close to breaking out but starting to get there. And all of a sudden you're thinking, ooh, the semis. What I'm also watching in semiconductor land, just better tone, better action. even some of the weaklings came up off of lows and levels and didn't come back down and look like they're going to break above range again. So there's semis.

There's some of these financials. And then the Dow. I go through Dow 30 and there's some Dow stocks that look like crap. But amazingly, IBM, a stock I've made. fun of for a ever because until about two months ago it was where traded in the year like 2000 but it's really getting going now on hardly any sales growth i'm being told the reason is a i whatever that's a dow 30 stock and it's moving that's i bm wow caterpillar much better action Maybe the China thing, I don't know.

Apple, even with all the negative talk, needs to jump out of range and it's been doing, it's been wild swing for about three months. But this is how we look at things. And when we're done with radio, we're going to tear it apart, even though we tore it apart midday also. And we're just also noticing growth hitting the new high list. We love that. Meta broke out at 545 is already 590. You know about NVIDIA holding support levels. And there are others.

We just want to make the point of, boy, big indices starting to act. Well, they've been acting decently, notwithstanding the Japan crash, and whatever else, we're just letting you know, may have started another leg up today. May have. Notice the words may have. Just because you move above range doesn't mean your work. And I will tell you this, starting Thursday, oh, that's tomorrow.

Let's see, tomorrow, well, Domino's Pizza reports, I don't think that's market moving. But on Friday, Black Rock, Bank of New York, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo reports. four very important bank stocks. We'll see what happens. I have absolutely no clue what the reaction is going to be, but the more good reactions we have, the better.

And then there's the economically sensitive stocks. Some I've never heard of acting swell. Building slash construction. Acting swell. Why have we told you here there's no chance of a recession with all this talk of recession. Why? Because the market always flushes it out first.

And as I've said to you on this show, the Dow would be 3,000 points below here. Seriously, it would be 3,000 points below if we were going into a recession of import. And what do we mean by that? We've had moments in time where the GDP was down for two quarters, but then we're out of it. Now, you do know we think there's an eventuality of these maniacs in D.C. with their debt and deficits,

we're not here yet. And you do know we believe that they've been rigging things for the last three months, right? And maybe that's part of what the market's doing. They ran a $380 billion deficit the last month ago. That's on purpose. Our debts up $4 trillion in 16 months. That's on purpose. That goes into markets.

That goes into GDP. That goes into money supply, which has been skyrocketing, all into an election. Yeah, they're dumb, but they're not that dumb. They know what drives the bus. They know that every Dow point, every data point is going to, account. After that, who the hell knows? Up next, we'll continue along these lines. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors at. Economic headlines keep shifting, but the uncertainty remains. Market volatility, rising debt, and global tensions are affecting

retirement accounts and long-term savings. Many Americans are turning to physical gold and silver as tangible assets to help diversify their portfolios. Preserve gold provides educational guidance, including how metals can be held in an IRA. Get your free wealth protection guide when you text IHeart to 50505. That's IHeart to 505.05. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.edu. At yet I've learned some of the 50, I've learned some of the family, the importance of the job, and that the 99% of the people of more of 50

have the virus that causes the Culebrilla. Although not all the persons in risk the will be developed. I see the eruption dolorousa with ampollosures, durownaz. Sending that even the more simple are all

a real real a lot of not learn to learn about the clobrilla about your doctor or pharmaceutical

for GSK America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just

on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're going to

feel better if you talk to And well once again to Investors Edge we can only hope that's it sticks this little move in the S&P also had a mention the cruise lines break out to new highs today the cruise lines on upgrades so we give it less weight because we don't trust any analysts but man strong moves

Carnival Cruise Line today, broke out of 10-month trading range on 142% better volume. Norwegian Cruise, 10-month trading range. Royal Caribbean, much stronger than both. New High Ground. And recent Viking just came public a while. I think in May, V.I.K. that hit new highs today. Cruise lines. So good to see. And let's hope it continues. I have no clue about tomorrow. And I've seen plenty of times where things break above range and then tuck their head in like a little frightened turtle.

As I always say to the peeps, it's got a stick. But it's got a stick. And of course there are points in time in the markets where you have a bigger conviction that something's going to stick versus not. Yields keep going up 4.067, so you've had some real estate stocks weaker, housing stocks weaker, utilities weaker. But market doesn't care just yet. Yet. Yet. We'll let you know what it does. Do you know how you know when we're in a bear market?

Because I can't come on radio and say to you, this broke out, that broke out, this broke out, this broke out, that broke out. Oh, there's the cruise lines. It's pretty simple. In bare markets, I'm coming on this show and saying to you, oh, the S&P just broke another range to the downside. Oh, J.P. Morgan just broke down. Goldman Sachs just broke down.

Goldman Sachs just broke down. The leading growth names, Goodnight Irene. That's how you know. Not today. And may I state for the record, hopefully this continues. China.

Another day of pullback. But it was much lower early today and had decent comebacks. We have said to you on this show, we think this is a guess. We'll let the market decide that China has more to go on the upside. But there's no way in hell I'm buying it in the redwood trees. I'm in hopes today was not it for the pullback.

I would like to see weeks of settling down, quieting down, doubt, and then buy off moving averages. Not sure we're there yet. We'll know more tomorrow. And the next day. The hope is tomorrow. Well, I think we're pretty much covered. We will have power no matter what. If the office goes down, I got another place to go.

I'll go to another place. I'll go to another place. I'll go to another place. Just let you know. In the news, well, we got this election. Notice my silence. They made up a person and they allowed her to be made up. Everything about her life and the last three and a half years is forgotten.

about. They had Bill Whitaker of 60 Minutes actually asked about it finally. And her answer basically was like scrambled eggs. Didn't answer. And of course, if I was doing the interview, I'd be following up by saying, with all due respect, Vice President, are you going to answer the question? Because it's your policies and Joe Biden's policies that open the border wide open and 10 million people came through. Bill Whitaker didn't follow up, but I got to commend him. But then you know what 60 Minutes did? Do you believe this crap?

They edited out answers. They promoted answers that were just moronic. And then they edited them out because it made her look bad. This is 60 minutes. The end-all be-all of journalism. I've yet to see their answer to what they did. She went on Howard Stern. I won't listen to the interview.

She went on the view. I won't listen to that interview. She went on Stephen Colbert. I watched one of the questions, and I watched a drink of bear and laugh while there's a major hurricane raining down on Florida. They don't even give a crap how they look. They know the media's in the tank and they know half the country's with them no matter what. What I'm always amazed to see is how somebody like her puts down the wealthy, which, by the way, are celebrities, but they still kiss her arse.

I don't get it. Trump, have not watched too much of them in the last few days. I get little outtake, some video, and all kinds of stuff, and it's tiresome. He now says he's going to pay off the deficits with tariffs. Ladies and gentlemen, that's such bull crap I can't even begin to tell you. And I would say it to his face. You know what a tariff is? They'll sell products here and a consumer will pay for it.

extra dollars out of the consumer's pocket and they're going to take that and pay down the deficit? No, they're not. And in case you forgot what Trump did when he was president, the tariffs were killing the farmers and he didn't want to lose the farmer vote. So he took our taxpayer dollars and paid them off.

Sounds like somebody you know. Joe Biden. As you can see, we call them as we see them. As we tell you up front, we don't care R or D, we just want good policy. Now, I will tell you this on the economics, Trump is filet mignon and she is spam. Nothing personal against spam. But when I say filet mignon, that's only in comparison to her. Only in comparison.

She's nightmarish. more importantly you can't believe a word she says about where she stands now that is complete opposition to our whole life it's like your 10 year old kid

stole a $5 bill out of your drawing he looks at your eye and take him mommy we have less than a month and uh I'm just hoping for gridlock the Republicans will get the Senate the House

the Republican should be up by 50 seats now, but Trump screwed that up at the midterm. Up next, what else we got in our bag and don't be pissed at me, I tell you the truth. This is the one only investors edge. Every day the headlines shift, but the uncertainty never seems to fade. From rising geopolitical tensions to record U.S. debt and ongoing debates about inflation and money printing, Americans are watching economic forces that feel far beyond their control, and for many, that instability is showing up in retirement accounts, personal savings, and long-term financial plans. More people are taking a closer look at options that don't depend on Wall Street.

Physical gold and silver have been used for generations as real, tangible assets during unpredictable moments like these. They're not about replacing existing investments. They're about adding a layer of diversification that has historically helped provide balance during volatile periods. Preserve gold focuses on education, giving everyday American straightforward information about how precious metals can fit into a retirement strategy, including options to hold them inside an IRA.

To get your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Text IHeart to 50505 today. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,

APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.edu. You. At the 50,

I've learned some things, like the value of the family, the importance of the time of the people of

the people of the most of the virus that causes the Culebrilla. Although not all the people in

risk, I do you do you know, the eruption dolorosa with ampollas duros a month

making that even the things are all a lot of a little

the little bit the I'm talking to doctor or pharmaceutical, patrocinoed for GSK. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So, worries. Well, besides the debt and deficits. So right now, I am going to my little search engine, and I'm going to put up CRB index

chart as I speak and I am going to take out a chart and let you know the CRB index is back near the highs of May now that is 19 commodities we're talking let's see if I can I'm not going to remember all of them but wheat soybeans copper steel coal iron ore lumber heating oil, gas, who I'm remembering a lot, natural gas, of course, oil, and Brent, gold and silver, I think,'s in there also. The Fed is telling us inflation is under control

while the CRB index just touched the high of May. These are things we pay for. You do realize if lumber prices are going higher, anything with lumber, you are paid. higher price for that is inflation that's simple is that well hmm over the past month just the last month while Jay Powell is telling us we're good with inflation I'm gonna start from the bottom this aluminum is up 9% tin is up 10% nickel is up 12% zinc is up 13% palm oil 13% oats 14% steel 15% rubber

16%, beef 19%, sugar 20%, iron ore 23%, propane 25%, natural gas 25%, and sunflower oil 30%. Hmm. Hmm. Now I don't know what NAPH-T-H-H-A, NAPtha definition. A flammable oil containing various hydrocarbons. It's into the general air is a precursor to gasoline and other liquid fuels. I just learned something new. I've seen the word before, but I didn't know. Look how I did that. That's a worry. Just remember, nothing personal. J. Powell doesn't know what the hell he's doing. Doesn't have a clue. They're data dependent. That means they're acting on things that have already happened. They used to predict, but they were wrong in nine out of ten times, so they'd stop predicting. The amazing part about this is they of like a thousand analysts going out to figure out life in general.

Little old me has nobody, yet I'm able to see things way in advance and they don't. Anyway, we're just letting you know, prices for a bunch of stuff are going up. While they're saying everything's coup, we will be watching very closely, because we really do believe those interest rates, the direction of them, going to be muy importante as we move forward. I got asked by more than a few people. Let's do a little bit of this. Do you like selling covered calls?

Do you know what that is, everybody? Well, if I try to explain it, I would explode your brains. I'm just going to say it is a strategy with options. that leave you with this a cap on your upside but no cap on your downside of course you can trade at any time to stop it in other words

without getting into it you can buy a stock at 50 and write a call let's say they give you a buck and a half makes your cost 48 and a half but since you wrote it at 50 you're given somebody the opportunity to buy it away from you at 50 by paying you a buck and a half. So let's say somebody was bought out at 80.

You make 50, you paid 50, you get your dollar and a half, you don't get any money above to 80. Let's say you bought that same stock at 50 and you got your dollar and a half. You have a cost of 48 and a half. And they announced that earnings were a lot worse than expected. and it drops to 35. Well, you made your buck and a half. Your cost is 48 and a half, but you lose the other 13.5 bucks.

Again, it is a strategy that caps your upside but does not cap your downside. Unless you trade things. You can trade. At any given time, you can trade out of it at any given time. Just letting you know. If you want to get the crux of covered calls,

Go look it up. What is covered call writing? And believe me, there's great explanations out there. When are covered calls great. Find the stock that trades in a range for six months, a tight, quiet range, and you just take an income for six months. And you're lowering your costs and it's kind of like a nice little dividend every month. You get the biggest premiums on the craziest stocks, but you're dealing with the craziest stocks. You get very small premiums on the lower beta stocks. You know, the Procter & Gambles and things like that. The greatest premiums I've ever seen is when Tesla was going nuts to the upside. Man, were they given great premiums?

And of course, there's different strategies with the options, and now they also have monthly and weekly. They have weekly options. Go look it up if you have an issue. interest. Just be careful. No TV tomorrow. I'm going to be ducking a storm. Prayers out for the West Coast. Hey, and all of Florida, which we're part of. You'll have a great evening drive carefully. Stay safe. And when you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Stay well, be well. And I'm really a nice guy. If I had friends, they would tell you.

Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, Our programs are designed for people who never stop.

You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold,

thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.