Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Hurricanes and Markets!

Episode Date: September 28, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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VALA to 327. Selection varies by location. All supplies last. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is the 28th, September, 22nd, so let's get down to it. First off, I spoke to a very close friend. who lives in Fort Myers, they are getting mauled down there. I don't know if you've seen the videos, but pretty much the Gulf has lifted up and has just taken things with it. They call it Storm Surge.

And in the Fort Myers, Naples area, all I can just say is, my goodness. That's all I can really see. say. If you look at a map of Florida on the southeast coast, wow, that's all I can say. Benita Springs, Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Naples, Port Charlotte, Punter Gorder. So our prayers are with them big time, big time. It's coming my way. In fact, it's coming right up. our way. We are fortunate. By the time it gets here, the strength of it will fall off a cliff, a ledge, whatever word you want to use. But we're still going to be getting some pretty good. I'm expecting start, we're already getting right now about 25 to 30 mile an hour winds. It's not even

close. I am expecting to get in the neighborhood of 60 to 75 mile an hour winds, lots of rain, but nothing compared to what's happening in southwest Florida. So wish them well, for all of you out there, basically what we will do if we lose power, are we still able to do the show? And if I lose power because I have an elderly living with us, we'll move to a hotel anyhow. And I think they're all up, generator the whole works. Anyway, that's the deal. But go look at some of the videos.

Holy crap. So we're thinking of each and every one of you being affected by this. Wow. as we always say, respect the weather. Respect it. And don't pay attention to any of the politicos that try to take advantage of it. I already saw a bunch of clowns out there. They had a CNN guy ask a meteorologist last night about it being climate change.

The meteorologist just shut him down. Because the question was put to him about. Oh, I'm from Florida. This is the worst we've seen. No, it isn't. It's bad. I've seen it 50 times before. He makes like this is something new

that all of a sudden is the climate change that's doing this, that, and the other thing. Some people are just plain old nauseating, taking advantage of anything to move their little, I don't know. The other thing we have to watch out for is tornadoes. you can get tornado warnings. We haven't had one in my area, but I know a surrounding area.

In central Florida, there has been some. So that's basically the story. Thank you all for the well wishes. Next, Winston, as I said, is home and is doing great, sleeping it off. So far, so good. I think Winston's going to be with us for a very, very long time. And you know how we feel about Winston. And just so you know, we're getting like these wind, you know, every 30 seconds, we get a big push of wind.

I hear it against the window. Anyway, this is Investor's Edge. This is serious talk on you that everything affects you. You know the things we cover, right? And we pull no punches on that. And we have no bias. We have no agenda. We have no ulterior motive. All we want to do is protect you. Protect your capital first and foremost. And then we deal with the rest. And of course, since February of 21, that's really all we've been talking about. Protect your capital. Whether it started with all the bubbles that popped bigly, we told you about them. They all crashed. The coins. Most are at zero. The main ones, have crashed. The electric vehicles, the SPACs, the no-sales biotechs, the short-squeeze stocks.

They all crashed. The high flyers. The companies that lose money, which we warned about. A ton of them have crashed. 60, 70, 80, 90 percent is a crash. And as we've said several thousand times, we hope you've listened. Recently, we've had a major spike in yields, affecting mortgage rates, affecting loans, cost the capital, affecting markets. We've had a major move in the dollar against other currencies, which certainly affects so many things around the globe. In just the last 11 days coming into today, the Dow dropped 3,500 points. Just the last 11 days, forget before that.

3,500. The Dow, the index that's supposed to hold up best. 3,500 points in 11 days. And of course, yields in that 11 days went from 3.36 10 years to 4, which was overnight tonight. went a little above four. And when that happened, overnight, Dow futures were down 300. Overnight, Apple,

it came out that they are slowing up production because of slower demand. The NASDAQ was down 200. Overnight. That's on top of what we've had. already to the downside. The Dow actually went from 34-281 to a low of 28988 since August 16th to yesterday. That's 5300 points. The Dow. The defensive Dow, imagine what other things have done. Coming into today, we've had the same language for you.

Stretched, extended, oversold in the markets. Stretched, extended, overbought, yields, and the dollar. If you follow our webcasts, we've been pointing it out on Monday. We did the webcast and said, and we wrote down that we think we're a close to another one of the counter trends because things have gotten stretched away from the norm. There's a certain ebb and flow to markets and every now and then things move away from that ebb and flow, but always come back to that ebb and flow. We got that today. With a proviso, notice the big word from your handsome and buffed host, Gary. Proviso. How many times

if I use that word. The proviso is they interfered with the markets again today. I'll explain much more up next. On this, the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-59. That's 8-88-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management.

Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Embatta. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum. computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to

have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.

That is one that can run a very, very, very, very, large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

You bring the fire. APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. Okay. So in case you don't know, we're giving you some background here. it's not just us where interest rates have skyrocketed it's many other places it's not just our central bank that is raising rates to account for all this

it's other central banks as you know we are one of the few that have blamed the central banks all long and of course some of the geniuses are now agreeing with us. Yet they're being covered, we're not. And that's fine. We like being under the radar. We'll only worry when we become too well known.

Even though a lot of people come up to me when I go to airports and stuff. Overnight, and I'm going to try to explain this in a way that is just easy to understand the United Kingdom that saw it's 30 year they call it guilt

there GILT yields have spiked up to 5.09% they went into the market and have also promised going forward to buy the this is the government this is the central bank

to buy the crap out of it to get the yields down In other words, government intervention again. Again, printing of money to rig and manipulate free markets. The guilt went from 5.092 today all the way down to 3.934 on that news and on that move. By the way, that 30-year yield was the highest since 2002. over there. And it pretty much marked the biggest drop single day fall since 92. That goes all the way back when records for the 30-year guilt began. The 10-year yield there dropped from 4.51 down to 4.01.

A huge drop. Now, if you know me, I'm not happy with that. Why? What have we told you For a very long time, we worry about the ultimate outcomes of people playing God with free markets. That these morons that caused all this, what have I said to you? They're still running the show. And what is their default setting? Well, you see it. Now, we're big believers, and it's not the news. It's how things react to the news.

Guess what happened today? The dollar sank against the pound and other currencies. And our interest rates came down big time today. And what do you think happened to our stock market today? Well, went up nicely today. With the proviso off of what another central banker did. That said, we were expecting some sort of counter-trend move. We told you that.

stretched extended oversold big dose of bearishness but today it was better than even that except into the clothes they sold it off a little bit just remember all these rallies are coming off of weakness not strength but bear market rallies could be can be fruitful the last one that starts in June and went into August was a damn good rally. There is no reason why we can't have another damn good rally from here, just knowing in the last two months plus the Dow dropped from 34-281 down to yesterday's 28958. Now does this mean other central banks will follow? I have no clue.

To this minute our central bankers are talking. tough as tough can be. We're raising rates more. That's what they're saying. We're raising rates even more. We'll see. The good news is, and this is exceptional news on today. The 10-year finished at 3.705 down a whopping 259. It was at 3.964 all the way down to 3.75. That's fantastic news. Why? Cost of capital comes down markedly. Lifts up asset prices make you feel a little bit wealthy. Wealthyer. Will it last? I don't know. Do I think it's going to last? Probably some more. Is it the end of the bare market? Not so sure. What if our Central Bank follows suit, don't know. Why do I say that? I'm not so sure that'd be good news.

Inflation fighters printing money to buy up bonds? Hmm, that would be enabling inflation. But I digress. Very good reaction today, anyway, shape, or form. We also had some hurricane moves. Home Depot up 13 bucks today. After dropping 55 bucks. Lowe's was up. about, I don't know, 6% hurricane related. Some construction stocks, hurricane related. I haven't looked at the insurers yet.

They reacted. But just good day. With the proviso, we want markets to move on their own. We don't want the whims of a select few morons moving markets. It moved markets today. though they would do

markets would do and we showed it on Monday to people we showed on Monday how stretched and extended things were from the norm you had price of the dollar moving perfectly

from 8 to 2 on a clock and then all of a sudden towards 12 stretched extended starts a pullback today. Up next, the numbers. Other thoughts. This is the one on the investor's edge.

Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to that.

Pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive, Yeah. Wow.

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Learn more at ovie.coop and taste the difference. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Oh, the market rap is brought to you by. Investment-dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Investment dash-models.com. That was up 548. But I must tell you, what, a few minutes to go was actually up. 117. about 680 fell off at the close but still up 548

in the Dow today Home Depot up 13.5 combination of two things lower rates is good for housing and housing related and the hurricane 13 to half that is it's about 75 of the Dow points Goldman Sachs up 9

and by the way let's do this in perspective Goldman Sachs up 9. It is still down $43 from 11 days ago. You catch my drift? Boeing was up 6. That's down 40 bucks from four weeks ago. Amgen up 5. Amgen's been somewhat of a tiptoe through the tulips,

but that's still down 20 bucks from two weeks ago. American Express up 3. Better financial day. That's just been trashed. Microsoft up foreign change in the Dow. Microsoft had just gone, just so you know Microsoft. Remember that high I just mentioned from August? Microsoft.

The August high was $2.94. Even with being up $4.60 today, to $241. Wow. United Health was up five. Walmart 2, Visa 1. Nike 2, 3M2, J.P. Morgan 2. J.P. Morgan was up two bucks today to 108. It was 121 two weeks ago. Disney up three and change. Disney bounced to 99 bucks. It was just 126. A Caterpillar was up five today. That's in the Dow. Caterpillar hit 167 at the close. It was 200 bucks about $5.5.5.5.

weeks ago. That's what we mean by perspective. But good day. S&P up 71. Nasdaq 222. But the NASDAQ was up 272 with six minutes to go, just dump 50 points into the close. Whatever. Transports up 303. But perspective. The transports finished today at 12-4-5.5.5. Are you ready for this? 11 days ago was 14303. And on August 16th, it was 15,300. Perspective. That's been our best friend during the bear market.

What do we mean? While every day the market's up, somebody is calling the lows, and the bear market has ended. We're telling you the reason why we rally today is because we drop so much and we are not there yet. We have called for counter trend moves. We have said to you, we think we're starting a counter trend move. We think we started one today. And we use the term unknown time and price.

But I can tell you, some of the counter trend moves didn't last two days. and we did our job by saying it topped already. You had a countertrend move in June. That waffled around, but then you had the confirmation July 15th, and you rallied up for about six, seven weeks. We had a countertrend in May lasted eight days, sat around for eight days and then croaked. We had a counter trend in March that lasted about two and a half weeks,

sat around for a few days and then croaked. that's about it so today's started one it could end tomorrow there's no rule on this do we think it can go more sure but we're dealing with central bankers again and I can't begin to tell you

how nauseous it makes me they don't believe in price discovery they don't believe in the people they don't believe in free markets they don't believe in business They believe they are God and they can engineer gargantian economies and markets

with their whims and a sprinkle of their pixie dust and they did it well with the printing of money but all that did was create what we told you created massive distortions that we told you would all crash they all crashed and yet the Bank of England now is doing exactly what caused

all the problems. But this time, I don't think they can make bubbles anymore. I don't think they can make bubbles anymore. We'll see. Tomorrow's another day. Today was one day, off the lows, after a gargantuan drop. We'll see if we get follow through. I already scanned around 1 o'clock today, 2,000 stocks. I'm not kidding when I say I have 30 stocks in good shape. The rest, are bombed out stuff again perspective i can go through do you know fedex today was up a good five bucks today fedex was up a good five bucks today to 150 it was 241 five weeks ago perspective gary is there any way to catch these moves after these big drops yeah close your eyes hold your nose and pray we have strict

rules and disciplines of buying and selling and sizing. Part of those rules is not to randomly, oh, the market's up today, buy the crap out of something and hope. The other thing is, I won't buy a FedEx whose numbers are heading south. We want great companies, great relative strength, great earnings, great revenue growth. And I can tell you on the relative strength front right now, as I mentioned. I got like 30 names out of 2000 that I scan. Solar still, good relative strength, sprinkling the names, even in Netflix at the lows, not a leader, but definitely acting better off this ad thing they may start to do. I can't, General Mills and their cereals, Twinkies, hostess brands, Axwell.

Got a biotech and vertex pharmaceuticals. Not doing anything, but holds up well. You had some drug news. Biogen up 79 today. God bless. Eli Lilly, along with it on the drug news, up 23. Recently had drug news on regenerant pharmaceuticals. Very strong moves, but news-driven.

No, thank you very much. So today's Wednesday, tomorrow's Thursday. We'll see what happens. You know what we're watching most. You know, we have to pay attention to the Fed, but really we're not considering them in our thought process. It's just watching the 10-year yield, and it dropped huge today, and that's good news. Down good, up bad.

Simple as that. Weakness today can really find any. Advanced declines were strong, up-down volume was strong, still no new highs in the market. There was still showing 550 new yearly lows, which is a drop because we had an up day. And this came from, just so you know, the Dow was down 300, the NASDAQ was down 200, until the Bank of England, which thrills me not. And just remember, Wall Street never mind stupid things, as long as the markets go up. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else, I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of SmartT, talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake M. Bata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM, Because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff.

Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.

How far are we from that point with Quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh,

or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. But do this animal... And this animal... and this animal... Have in common?

They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small, organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovie.coop and taste the difference. We're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. I feel like I got to give the disclaimer on this because you, know I can't stand any of them. But Governor DeSantis has done an A-plus-plus-plus job here in Florida with the hurricane. And how I rate him is based on how I see him when he's up there doing his talks to the state and to the people of the state.

been professional to the point covering all bases and most important part of the equation talking about protecting life and limb first everything else second take care of yourself take care of your loved ones get out of the way and the other part of the equation he got out there way in advance of this thing hitting here I think he started doing things, was out front and center maybe four days ago. So good on him.

You know, a bunch of clowns in the media that no matter what, if you're a Republican, they hate you. And the other way, no matter what, if you're Democrat, you know, they were out giving him crap, as usual. There's this Politico, a bunch of clowns also.

Oh, well, this is his chance to do it. His chance. How about just shut up? We're trying to save lives here, these media companies. They really do suck. Anyway, I think he's done a terrific job. Over one million left without power here in Florida right now. That's what it's just being reported.

155 mile per hour wins in southwest Florida. Lee County, home of Fort Myers and Cape Coral, still the most affected. 330,000 customers with outages. I remember when we were hit the last one, we were out for like nine days. I felt so bad for Duke Energy because they were working there, you know what's off, and for whatever reason they couldn't get things up so quick, but they finally got it done. I bought them all a bunch of pizzas. Other people were complaining.

Anyway, we wish everybody well. And again, good job by DeSantis. And that is just pure observation. And for those of you that are still in the wake of this thing, don't mess around. I can tell you that it's coming straight at us, but we know it's going to be much weaker. We ain't messing around. Let me tell you, 50 to 70 mile an hour winds, that ain't good. We got hit with some 35 gusts today.

Right now there's a lull. I'm looking outside and I'm even, yeah, it's stop raining, may even go outside. Let us not also forget we're in the end of quarter. And that's the other thing that, you know, just, you know, end the quarter window dressing, right? It's illegal so it doesn't happen. Tongue and cheek, wink, wink. So maybe a little bit of that. But the story today is this.

Bank of England is printing money. They said, screw it. If we don't do this, you know what I worry about? You see how they printed money today, got the 30-year down from five down to four? What if tomorrow goes from four back to five and gives them the middle finger?

Just remember what I've told you. You know what market's supposed to be? The investing and trading and speculating by people. At a certain price, at a certain time, in a certain size. We were never supposed to have the interference that we have seen. And as we have explained to time and time again,

what you have seen in the recent year is the outcome of their interference, people playing God with markets. And we told you, while the markets were going up, the outcome's going to be terrible. While the markets were going up, we were telling you this. And how do we know that? because they rigged and manipulate interest rates to zero and printed $9 trillion.

That is fantasy land. That's living off the unnatural. There's got to be a natural law and order of markets. It's called free. And unfortunately, Bank of England, now we'll see if anybody else decides to do it. And you know what the outcome in the end is going to be again, right? what's the old line never screw it mother nature well the same thing goes for markets tonight we'll scan again tactics will be see what we can find

looking to get some confidence that hey we can do some things and don't have to look over our shoulder with stops in place simple as that the other thing I actually do believe it or not I'll put a chart up on my screen and then back away 20 feet and look at it. And then you realize today was a blip in a major downtrend. Believe it not, that's my little trick of the trade. Other news, Joe Manchin backed away from everything he promised. He's now just in the soup like everybody else.

He's not a moderate. He's now in the Marxist socialist camp just with a soft voice and a lie. He signed off on 87,000 IRS. nothing against the IRS. We love them. They do their job well, but we know what this White House is trying to do. He signed off on a massive tax and spend bill. So Joe Manchin now is in our loss column.

We would give him credibility for a while because he stood up against his own party. And then guess what? So he's toast. We got nobody left. Let's put it that way. We're hoping for better. All right, ladies and gentlemen, we hope to be back on air tomorrow. If not, you'll get Adam.

I think we'll be in good shape, though. Adam does a great job, though. No worries. You all have a great evening drive carefully. Stay safe. No, really, stay safe. And when you get home, do like we do. Hug your pets.

Winston's home, we're hugging them. Hug your family. Hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better, I promise. Tomorrow will be on Stuart Varney at 11 a.m., Fox Business, and back at the same time tomorrow. Thanks for joining us. Have a good night, everybody.

Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

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