Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS
Episode Date: February 22, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbaum, your host day.
Thanks of being with us today.
Glad you are here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Wednesday.
It's February 22nd.
It's 2003.
And I am sitting here in central Florida.
It's 87 degrees.
tomorrow night I am flying to New York
let's see Friday will be a low of 31 a high of 53
I think I'm happy I'm going
next five days is going to be like 87 degrees here
in in central Florida I love that
some people don't like heat I love the heat
I only like the cold when I am in the snow
I'm a big fan of the snow
Anyway, hope you're having a good day
If you do not get this radio show in your city
Which is also a podcast
It originate is a radio show
We'll post it at garyk.com
We'll also post on our Twitter feed
If we want to follow us on Twitter
Press the button at garyk.com
And also you can go to Twitter and put our name in
You can email me
You just have to be nice
Because you know what?
We're very nice people here
Yes, we
take on the powerful, but they deserve it. We mean business. 32 trillion says so.
So today, we're going to just go through, in case you don't know, I do webcasts every night
for our members, what these webcasts are. It's kind of sure, it's pure stocks and show you what
we see. You know how we talk about the roadmap? We show the roadmap. We show you the leaders,
the laggards, what to avoid, what to not avoid. Does that make any sense? And we're pretty
precise and to the point. We're going to do that on radio today. A lot tougher because you
don't see it, but we're pretty good with our explanations. We'll do a little bit of that.
But first, got a few thoughts. Just off the game.
get go. We don't really listen to anybody in there. The market's going to be at 28,000 down at the end of the year or 38,000. We don't really pay attention to that. What we do pay attention to is the, how do I put this? I don't know if you call it the BS. We'll call it the obfuscation.
You know, as somebody who communicates to people through radio and TV, we're very careful about what we say, how it comes out.
But the one thing we won't do is obfuscate.
I was just watching somebody today about long term.
And they made a good point about, well, if you own the S&P, the last so-and-so years, decades,
we were just at all-time highs a year ago.
We're still, I don't know, 15% off the high, something like that.
But wow, look what we've done.
You've got to think long term.
But he forgot to mention the important part of the equation.
And it's what we tell you here.
It's what we teach you here.
In bare markets, the big leaders of the past bull market on average will drop 70%.
And most of them will never go back to where they came from.
And a lot of them will eventually die because it's the business cycle.
it's things being obsolete, something else coming along.
They forgot to mention the one gargantuan rule
that we follow judiciously
from each bear to bull to bull to bear.
And that is, it's great to own long term.
But what you better be holding long term
is working long term because
I can probably since the year 2000,
list a few thousand stocks, if not more,
that A, never came back,
B, you're still down 50, 60, 70% from 2000.
And some that are still trading are still way below.
They didn't mention that if you owned
what we were told,
the financial stocks to own for life,
Merrill Lynch, zero. Bear Stern, zero. Wachovia, zero. Countrywide financial, zero.
Lehman Brothers, zero. City Group today, in case you did not know, and not many people say this, is it 50 bucks.
But it's really $5. They did a one-for-10 split. So at 50 bucks, the old high in 06 was 570.
You're still down 95%?
City Group.
Never sell.
Never sell.
So we're just going to repeat,
just in case you listen to this gibberish from others.
It's great to own long term.
You better own things that are working long term.
Or else.
And I repeat.
There are just bazillion names that are just way off.
Bizzillion names that are way off.
They are highs from many moons ago.
And we don't even have to go back many moons.
All we have to do is go back the last two years.
From the bubble stocks that have just been destroyed.
To the ARC fund that is down 70% today from the highs.
The ARC fund that owns a lot of,
of this stuff would have to more than triple to just go back to the old highs. So we just want you
to remember this. I'm amazed that people when they talk that way about long term, it means zero.
From bull to bear cycle, from bear to bull cycle, you had better be nimble. You'd better be nimble.
You'd better be flexible. You'd better stay in tune with the market. Or big,
Or else.
And I should do a show one day that I will just come on the show and say,
Peloton, the high of 167, currently 1343,
and just list all the names, to about 200 names,
just from 21 to today.
So just be careful.
Think logically.
From cycle to cycle, things change.
What's been great yesterday may not be great today.
What was not great yesterday may be great today.
Names you've never heard of, companies you never heard of,
may end up being the biggest winners, and that would be the norm.
You all never heard of America Online back in 1990,
but in the late 90s or Yahoo, or eBay, or Amazon.
You never heard of them, did you?
So just keep this in perspective.
I just watch somebody and I just wish I was able to ask,
yeah, but what about the stocks that are down 90%?
What do you tell those people?
And obviously, I'd have them dumbfounded.
Protect your capital.
Be smart.
Watch it.
And I'm always asked about what I look for, what I do as far as selling.
Well, before I buy, I know where I'm selling.
That's all.
Before I buy, I know where I'm selling.
It's called a fail safe.
What's going to keep me out of big trouble?
Because I know if something drops 33%,
it has to go up 50% to get me back just to even,
and one that goes down 50% has to go up 100% to get me even,
and God forbid, more than 50,
you're in the soup at that point in time.
Simple logic, kids.
Add it to your repertoire.
Up next on the Edge, full market wrap.
Lots to cover.
I'm Gary.
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it's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working you're listening to
hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary
cult bomb it doesn't get better than this and what once again to investors edge so a few things are
going on in the market here number one the s mp 500 sitting right at the 50 day moving average that
would be a place where the big money crowd would defend and due to the fact it's the S&P 500, it would be of import.
Apple was at the 200-day moving average, not really a bull market stock, but to be watched there.
Amazon at the 50-day moving average, and Amazon's crap stock right now.
Microsoft at the 200-day moving average.
Netflix at the 50-day moving average.
So just letting you know, we're watching these moving averages.
Because if we're going to hold up here, they're going to hold.
If we're not going to hold up here, they're going to break.
That's all.
And that's the measuring stick right now.
As we have pulled back in recent days off of higher interest rates, though, interesting, rates were down today, but the market was down, notwithstanding the NASDAQ, which popped up a little bit into the green by the close today.
Yippee, AA.
And just to explain, these are just areas of support where,
the big money, the institutions defend.
And we know they're important because they're definable.
As we have explained to on this show, support in the market when we talk about price
simply means an area of price where it refuses to go lower.
And it's being supported every time it goes down there.
Resistance is price being hit over the head every time it tries to get up above
a certain number.
And the job is to constantly measure
what's moving above, what's moving below,
how many times moving above, how many times moving below,
whether it's a sector move and there's 10, 15, 20 stocks doing that.
Recently, we have told you avoid energy stocks,
except for a few names that we're strong than others.
Why?
Because one after one was breaking support levels.
Guess what's weakened every day?
Energy stocks. Not too hard to figure out when you work at it.
And you assume I have good eyes on the bare market.
How did we avoid it? Very simple.
Every stock was breaking down.
Breaking support levels. Breaking secondary support levels.
Breaking a third one. Breaking a fourth.
And it just kept going and going and going and going and going.
So just letting you know after this drop that we just have.
just had and still have on some things we're at some interesting juncture here for not only for
the indices but for some individual names that are of import that have big influence because they
are megas simple as that and this continues to be this pretty much interest rates up market down
The interest rates down, mark it up.
And that is not changed in the big picture.
And that's why we are really watching.
And I keep saying it.
Not necessarily the Fed.
And I know everybody keeps talking the Fed.
What interest rates, the real world is doing.
The Fed is not the real world.
They're not the real market.
There are a bunch of income poops that sit around the table deciding where things are going.
On certain things, go look up Fed funds rate at what
it means. And of course, they rigged the markets for so long that created all the bubbles that
pop where people got destroyed, created all the inflation, which they're now fighting. And now
they're acting like big shots. Look at us. We're tough. They're only tough because they are forced
to be tough. That's what's going on here. So I will tell you the next few days will be somewhat
of import. If the S&P takes out the 50 day, if Apple takes out the 200 day, these other names I mentioned,
could get interesting.
And there's some other ones we follow.
I know Nvidia is going to be reporting earnings any minute now.
We'll see what happens.
But not as important as others.
And we're interested to see what the earnings are going to be.
Why?
We think the stock is rallied up on AI,
and their earnings have been terrible the last couple of quarters.
If they've gotten better, we'll find out soon enough.
So today's market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com.
That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.
Go check it out.
Investment dash models.com.
Dow was down 84.
But, let me make sure I get this right for you.
The Dow at 350.
Yeah, I'm not making this up.
350 was 32-948 was down 180.
So in the last 10 minutes, they read.
rallied it back up to still be down 84. The S&P down 6. And the S&P rallied up 15 points in the last 10
minutes. The NASDAQ at 350 and the NASDAX had better rel of strength all day. But at 350 was
464. That's 3643. It was only down 30 at the low. Finished up 14. New yearly highs,
not seeing anything. Nothing of note. I will tell you some defensive.
name, some food. I saw Fresh Del Monte at a new yearly high. Simple FDP. That's a new yearly
high. How about L.W. Lamb Weston. You know what they do? Frozen potatoes and vegetables. New
yearly high. Defensive. And of course, defensive is not the greatest thing to see. We would rather
to see offensive. As we mentioned, oils crumbling even more today. We hope you listened.
And when we say the word avoid to you, we're not telling you to sell if you own. We're just
saying new commitments. Just wait. We said yesterday on the show, we don't buy anything in bare
markets. We avoid bare markets. We're always amazing we get accounts transferred in with dozens of
bare market stocks in them. And you know what the reasoning is. Oh, we're going to buy you 100
stocks. We're we've diversified along the market. So if this happens, it's ridiculous.
Imagine if these people that have 100 stocks in your account actually worked at it and just
stayed with things in uptrends. And when they stop being in uptrends, then you lose them.
But no, that would take some work. That would take some time.
advanced declines are on the flatter side
more than twice as many
new yearly lows than new yearly highs on the NASDAQ
and there were more new yearly lows on the New York
than new yearly highs today.
Quite amazing.
Up next, we'll continue.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
As I'm looking at the new high list,
and again, just some
something of note and we don't make this up I'm not even to mention the symbol of the name
because I don't even want you looking at it I have a stock I believe it looks to be a
SPAC yeah it never traded I have days where it's traded no shares I have days that traded
a high would be a few thousand shares it would
It was 10 bucks on the 15th.
It went to 51 bucks on the 16th.
Sat around for a couple of days today.
It went from a low of 37 to a high of 136, finished at 81.
Let me just state for the record, we're less than thrilled.
We don't want to see any of that.
We don't want to see froth.
We don't want to see speculation.
is not indicative of real big, gigantic bottoms of bare markets.
And what the story is, as SPAC completed a combination with this company on February 14th,
I'm looking to see the company has no sales.
So this crap continues.
It's stunning.
And of course, the only way to get to 131 today is somebody had to pay that price.
136, it closed at 81.
Hopefully you weren't the last one in.
And they'll all go back to where they came from, as we always told.
And you can't short them because you can't borrow any stock.
So just letting you know, kids, watch your wallets.
My goodness.
And I just found it on the new high list.
And as I look on the new high list on the NASDAQ, I've got Wingstop.
They're good numbers.
The stock did hit today
$194 closed at $179,
but that was a new yearly high.
You know what else on the NASDAQ?
I have BJS restaurants.
So another one,
BJ's restaurant group.
That's a new yearly high.
Guess what?
That's it for the new yearly highs on the NASDAQ today.
The rest are SPACs that don't move.
You got that?
No leadership.
On the New York.
You ready for new highs?
I got progressive insurance, PGR.
I have that LW I mentioned.
I have Lazy boy that reported earnings.
That can't be a new yearly high.
Let me see.
It is a new yearly high, but let me state for the record.
The stock is trading where it was in 2002.
Not so sure that's going to be a big leader.
Hershey's didn't finish it in a new yearly high
because it was down today but as close.
As we mentioned, Fresh Del Monte.
I got something called TK Corporation, symbol TK, pipeline.
That is your whole New Yearly High list
in the whole New York and NASDAQ markets.
We really don't follow the Amex.
So clear lack of leadership.
And then on the NASDAQ, new yearly highs today, 44.
It's really three names.
New Yearly lows 109.
I can't overemphasize it enough
in order for longevity in the market to the upside
you are going to need
leadership
we have some things in the news
you know somebody else is running for president
do you know who is
Vivek Ramoswamy
he is a multi-zillionaire
biotech guy he's on TV a lot
he's what they call
anti-woke
he's running for president announced today we'll see where that goes he's only 37 years old
he is against affirmative action he believes it holds people down and is unfair he believes in
merit-based he's sick over what's you know a bunch of these schools are getting rid of
advanced placement and advance this so in other words if you're smart used to go into these
real tougher classes, they're getting rid of it. They're insane. You know, life is a competition
once you get into the real world. And if our schools continue to dumb things down,
while others raise things up, look out, we're screwed. Our schools are not, and I don't want
to take the brush and paint them all, but they're nuts. They're nuts.
Anyway, that's in the news and you can read about him.
Pretty smart dude.
Take away, you know, whatever the politics, but he's a smart guy.
What else is in the news?
Oh, I read this one in the Wall Street Journal.
How the U.S. can prevent a debt spiral.
Somebody named a William Galston from Wall Street Journal,
first stabilize the debt to GDP ratio, then negotiate Social Security reforms.
What have we told you about Social Security?
It's a Ponzi scheme.
Now everybody's admitting how bad a scheme it is and how we've got to fix it.
You know, the Dems won't do that, though, because they're trying to win votes, but they're one of the causes of this.
Anyway, I don't think there's anything to stop the debt spiral that we're going to eventually hit.
The CBO, who's always low on the number, is estimating another 19 trillion of debt over the next 10 years.
And by the way, that number they're saying now is $22 trillion.
No, not kidding.
And remember, you retirees, you are not getting your money back plus interest in Social Security.
Money's gone.
They lied.
They said it was in a lockbox.
You're getting the money from the workers today.
And there's about one and a half workers for every retiree now.
used to be like 16 workers for every retiree,
and what the story is is that people live longer.
Oh, they forgot.
Advancements in medicine will have people living longer.
Anyway, that's a Wall Street Journal article.
That's a little too optimistic if you ask me.
Also, Nikki Haley.
Interesting.
You know, she's running for president.
I have no opinion on her, but you know what I noticed?
She keeps being asked, what would she do different than Trump?
And she keeps avoiding the question.
Interesting.
Really?
You know, you're going to go up against him in the primary.
So what separates you from Trump?
You're not going up against Biden right now.
You have to get past Trump and DeSantis.
And she's getting asked and she's, you know what her answer is?
I don't kick sideways.
If I was her counselor, I would look at her and say, that is the stupidest answer I've ever heard.
Is she afraid of him?
Is she worried that he's going to say something stupid that he does every day?
Anyway, so that's Nikki Haley.
She's already losing points with me.
I want to know what the heck is the difference between her and everybody else is.
I don't kick sideways.
I got news for her.
She better kick sideways because primary first, the general second, and a little bit more.
Joe Biden article today about Bidenomics.
Interesting.
I'm going to have some deep thoughts on binomics in a couple of minutes.
You know where I stand.
He makes it easy for me.
It makes it easy for us that all we care about is our children.
right? That's all we care about as parents. We want to make sure our children have a great future.
Next up, our thoughts on that. And much more. I'm Gary. This is the one-n-only investor's edge.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
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The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
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relatives, and saying things like,
Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
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Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.
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Investors Edge.
With Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
A mixed day to day in the market.
It was all of them. By the way, they came out with the Fed Minutes today.
I won't bore you, and I don't want to vomit, so I'm not even going to talk about them.
I've never understood markets even moving on Fed Minutes that happened weeks ago.
But welcome to my world.
We are a select few people that have no accountability or oversight.
Are the most powerful people on this earth?
Yay
Yay
After market
Not much going on
Got a few things up
A few things down
eBay
Which by the way
I'll never use again
I told you that many years ago
Down a buck
You know the story right
I got snowed
On eBay by some woman
On
a Hawaii trip
And
It turns out she was
was just a crook. And she went to jail. And like an idiot, I gave a check, not a credit card,
and it was somebody else in my office that I took care of also. She actually went to jail
and believe it or not, San Diego, where she was from, when she got out of jail, I guess she
went back, she got a job again, they started sending me checks. Years later, they sent me checks.
But anyway, I contacted eBay. They couldn't give a crap about me.
They didn't even want to hear from me.
Basically, they just said, we're just bookies.
We're just middlemen.
Go screw yourself.
That's what happened.
So I've never done any other business on eBay.
I don't think I've ever visited the eBay site since that day.
But they don't care about me.
They got a big business.
What are they doing in business still?
10 billion?
10 billion.
But the stock is not kept up with a lot of other things.
but let's see there was a high in 05 of 25 bucks so in 18 years it's up 90% so just a lot of nothingness
in 18 years and from the recent highs of the bear market hit 81 it's 47 hey didn't like how
was treated uh Joe Biden you know we
don't, you know, the talk about how old he is and dimension, all that. We don't, we don't go into
that BS. You know, he's old. We know. We can see it, but we don't, you know, it doesn't bother,
it doesn't bother us. What bothers us is policy. And we think from start to finish, he's a yachts.
We could start with Afghanistan. By the way, do you notice the media do not report that the
Afghanistan women, the Afghan women, you know how women, so important, they have been
basically sent back to the dark ages in Afghanistan.
Don't know if you know that.
Not being reported, you know that, right?
Because we took 2,500 people out there.
I don't know if you know how many billions of dollars of armed artillery that we left there
also, by the way.
And we weren't at war.
There was no war mongering there.
It was just keeping the peace.
So it's policy.
And I just want to get back on point.
Joe Biden's got a laundry list of the things he's going to do for us,
the things he's going to do for you.
Because our Latin life will never get to where it should be without Joe Biden.
You know, the guy who's been in Washington, D.C.
since we only had 500 billion of debt and now we're at 32 trillion.
but you have to take out the four years he was out of politics between Obama and becoming president.
The Trump years.
Who, by the way, Trump brought us about $6 to $7 trillion of debt also.
And every day it's something new.
Here's what I'm doing for you.
Here's what I'm giving to you.
Here's what I'm doing to them.
You know, if you make too much money, oh, you're screwed.
You're cheaters.
Your tax cheats if you make over a certain amount.
You know, some state senator.
in Illinois. They want to do a wealth tax there. And you know what the guy actually said? You're going to have no
place to hide. He wasn't talking about criminals. He was talking about people who make too much money
and have too much wealth. Think about that. A state senator. You have no place to hide.
One in California said something to that effect also. Yeah, they'll get people living there,
moving there. But we're just letting you know there's a cost for this laundry list. Joe Biden has
raised federal spending from $4.4 trillion in 2019. The year before COVID, that's what I use.
Six trillion this year. And of that $1.6 trillion, it's all debt. They tell you it's $1.5 trillion
deficit. Oh, it'll be more because interest rates still going up. And of course, it's all for the
greater good. Because he's here for us. Of course, 380 billion of it is being handed to a guy
named John Podesta, a democratic hack, one-sided, big-time democratic hack, to dole out for climate.
They haven't defined what climate is, but you know what that means? 380 billion is going to go
invisible. You know who's going to get a bunch? Al Gore. You know Al Gore has a big, big
green fund. You know, that's how con artists do things. They tell you the world's ending in 10 years
and then start a green fund and create all kinds of BS to put in the green fund and make yourself
wealthier beyond your imagination. Al Gore. Well, now this $380 billion of our tax dollars
are going to go to friends, relatives, and compatriots. Pretty sure Delaware is getting a ton of
people opening new green companies right now in advance of this. I give you Joe Biden. More on that
tomorrow. You'll have a good evening. Drive carefully. I'll be on with Stuart Varney tomorrow,
9 o'clock hour. Fox Business Network. Until tomorrow, I have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure
you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Have a great one.
everybody, sleep tight. Thanks for joining us. Bye, bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary
Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
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