Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - IRAN TIME [06.18.2025]
Episode Date: June 18, 2025www.garykaltbaum.com...
Transcript
Discussion (0)
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Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary
Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen,
happy that you are listening. It's Wednesday. It's June 18, 2025. Tomorrow is June
June 19th, right up front the market's closed.
Yay.
As usual, I'll be on a flight tonight up to the northeast to see the dad
and do some Fox News studio appearances.
But I want to get right down to it.
In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
We will do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry.
Iran, tariffs, doge, debt, deficits, scams, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it.
Today on the show, we will do.
Stable coins?
What the hell is that?
I'm trying to figure it out.
We'll talk Iran because I think something's going to happen.
and I got a few little statistics for you.
And if you don't get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on a Twitter fee,
which is now X,
and if you don't follow us on X, you should.
And of course, if you'd like to email us,
just be nice.
It's pretty simple.
Just be nice.
Okay.
In no particular order.
The markets.
Not a lot of movement. It tried to rally, tried to drop. Dow was down 44. S&P was down to, NASDAQ up 25, NASDAQ 100 was flat. Transports 36 to the upside. Strength today, banks, financials, stable coin stuff. I'll try to explain it. And then there's the opposite of the stable coin stuff was trashed. I'll try to explain.
that and much more. Where do I want to go from here first? Markets and Iran. Iran and markets.
Let me tell you what I think. And I know, Gary, you're going to give an opinion in Iran. You don't
know anything about it. You're not military. You're not in the White House. Hey, we can still give an opinion.
my guess
my guess
is that tomorrow
we are going to do some offensive
work
when it comes to Iran
that's my guess
at least that's how
I've been reading it
the president
I think is really telegraphed it
and I must tell you
if he doesn't
at this juncture
he kind of looks like he's
bailed
what do I mean by that?
He's actually come out and said to the head mullers,
you are going to surrender.
You had better surrender.
And the mullers came out and said up yours.
So how do you back away?
Do you think the presidents put himself in a corner?
That's not a unfair question.
But what would that mean to markets on Friday?
All I can tell you, listen carefully, is that if you go backwards to Desert Storm and others, the market's done okay.
I think there's a thing about patriotism that makes the market okay.
We'll see.
Anyway, that's a guess.
I think it's a good educated guess.
I guess we'll know tomorrow.
will let you decide whether you think that's right or wrong.
The hope is those clowns in Iran are gone,
and their nukes, if they have, or getting close, splat.
Next.
Well, the Fed was today.
They didn't do anything.
Jay Powell, as you know, I have told you,
me being the biggest critic of the man
have been saying lately
I'm happy with what he's doing
which is nothing
and that's in spite of the president
the president called him an idiot today
and as you know we don't like that
we want our president to be presidential
some would argue that but I'm sorry
just my opinion
we think the president has it wrong
And due to the fact, we have nailed this whole Fed thing for a long time.
He should probably listen to me, but he won't.
The fact is, well, no, it's not a fact.
Jay Powell's at 4.5% on his little Fed funds, and we tell you, you want to know what Fed funds is?
Go Google it.
But simply, the easy way to say it is it's the rate that banks lend in charge and give to each,
other and all that crap the president said today that if he'd lower a point on the Fed funds
oh my goodness gracious it's going to save us hundreds of billions of dollars well he's wrong just
like he's wrong when he says tariffs are paid by China he's wrong unless our country
floats debt at three months and six months and one year treas
which they don't, even though Yellen did because she doesn't care about you.
We mostly float five-year, 10-year, 30-year bonds.
And guess what that is?
That's the free market.
And the 10-year yields at 4-4 right now.
He's at 4 and a quarter, so he's actually under the market.
Can he cut rate?
Sure.
but Trump wants a whole point.
Here's the problem with that.
It'll goose the markets.
It'll recreate inflation again.
And then it will feed on itself.
As inflation shows up, people will sell off bonds.
And interest rates will go higher.
And then the economy suffers.
So I believe the president has it completely wrong.
the last time the Fed cut rates from 5 and a quarter to 4 and a quarter, the 10-year yield went from 3-7 to 4-5, actually got to 4-8.
And what matters more?
Well, on a scale of 1 to 100, the Fed is about a 10, the free market is 100.
Your mortgage rates are based on your 10-year yield, a lot of your loans, 10-year yield, not the Fed funds.
So I don't know what the hell the president's talking about.
And I am amazed somebody hasn't gotten his hearing said, dude, stop.
And the same goes for his crap on tariffs.
Now, you think I have Trump derangement syndrome.
Let me, you know I don't, right?
We're going to applaud him now.
In the month of May of last year,
62,000 illegals came across the border.
Do you know how many came across in the month of May,
2025 under Trump.
As John Vernon said in Animal House,
0.0.
Magnificent.
What a fantastic job
President Trump has done on the border
and total down 93%
magnificent.
And by the way, it tells you what kind of a clown
Biden was and a lion's
He was.
I can't do anything about the border.
I need Congress.
He lying sack.
Four years of a lying sack.
And by the way,
Biden woke up six months before the election when his polls on immigration were worse than jock-inch.
He was deporting people.
I didn't see any protests.
Anyway, kudos to the president, President Trump on the border.
he's saving lives. He's saving lives by doing what he did on the border because people were dying in trucks and drowning.
Up next. We'll put a bow tie on it, get back to the markets, lots more. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units
and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So kudos to the president on the border.
And I've always said,
throughout the years to all of you.
I've never understood why this country would allow so many to come in illegally.
And that is the word.
The main reason for me is you're telling all the people that came here legally,
suckers.
Think about that.
I have very close friends.
I consider them family.
They are family.
that came here legally.
They went through time, sweat, toil,
dollars, tears,
and finally became citizens.
And they have watched how people cross the border illegally
and then get taken care of by the taxpayer.
It is backwards ass.
Our country has been backwards ass on the border.
Forever.
And you're kicking in the teeth the people that did it the right way.
So great to see.
Great to see.
Now we told you so that the president on his deportations would not last.
That was a gimmie, and I took a lot of flack on that.
And for those of you that are deportation lovers,
I gather you're pissed at the president now,
but he has no choice.
They figured out that restaurants have waiters and waitresses and busboys
that may not be here legally.
farmers have workers that may not be here legally.
Hotels have maids and workers that may not be here legally.
So guess what they figured out at the White House?
We cannot do these gang deportations.
But yesterday he came out and said, oh, we're still doing it.
Guess what I don't believe.
they're not going to be doing it. He came out to assuage his peeps.
But I'm letting you know, and I am 100% sure they are going to cut down on the deportations.
They have no choice. They are hearing it left and right from a lot of industry.
By the way, Uber drivers, lift drivers, lift drivers.
delivery people
construction
so just letting you know
that's going to happen
Mr. Logic says so
and then there's MasterCard and Visa
the markets
dang
so the other day
MasterCard what day was that
that was Friday
MasterCard which closed
the day before at 580
the next day hit a lower 552 and closed at 562.
Today was down another 31 bucks to 538 Visa.
Down 17 a half today.
That hit 372, four days ago, closed at 340 today.
What the hell is going on?
Well, there's talk about Amazon and Walmart, who, by the way, between the two, I think they
do about 1.4 trillion in sales, that they are looking to do their own corporate stable coin type
thing that would knock out the master cards and the visas of the world. So it got hit once,
but now they hit it again today. And at the same time, Coinbase today was up 41 bucks,
16% and a recent IPO called Circle Internet.
$31 IPO would open at 90.
It was up $51 today to $200.
What?
What do they do?
Well, they, Circle Internet provides digital currencies in public blockchains for payments,
commerce and whatever through stable coins and stuff like that what and coinbase
they announced something to that effect so i have to tell you i looked up what a stable coin is
for the life of me i don't get it i really don't a coin base announced it's introducing
Coinbase payments.
Of course, PayPal was also hit today also.
Is a stable coin payment stack designed for commerce platforms.
Offer instant 24-7 U.S.D.C. payments to your merchants.
That's digital coin, I gather.
Globally, securely, without blockchain complexity built on base and already live with Shopify,
It's the fastest way for payment service providers,
marketplaces, and commerce.
I'm thinking to myself.
And maybe some geniuses out there that knows a lot more than me on this,
can email me on this.
Why is this so much better than PayPal?
Well, I take that back because PayPal service stinks.
But why is it so much better than just credit cards?
You know, gas stations have their own credit cards.
Why do they need a stable coin?
Doesn't a lot of retail.
Macy's has their own credit card.
Bloomingdale's does.
What do you need a stable coin for?
Why is stable coin better?
Why is it the talk of the town right now?
I have to tell you, I think I'm pretty smart.
I don't have the answer.
If any of you do have the answer and you know the industry, email me.
I'd like to know.
Because, dang, dang.
Dang, dang. That was one hell of a move today in Coinbase and Circle Internet.
While crushing two very dependable stocks throughout the years, MasterCard and Visa.
American Express got hit the other day but did not get hit today.
I do not own any MasterCard and Visa as of right now, and I feel pretty damn good about it.
world's, I guess, change in, ladies and gentlemen.
Old is...
Goodbye.
Up next, more on markets.
News of the day.
This is the one only investors, Ed.
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Luckily, things are a lot easier these days, even screening for colon cancer.
When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people.
With more options than ever, it's key to start screening at four.
45 if you are at average risk. The Coligard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time
off, and it ships right to your door so you can use it in the privacy of your own home. With just
three simple steps, setup, sample, and ship, completing your Colagard test is easier than finding
the right track on your mixtape. If you're 45 or older, and at average risk, ask your doctor
about the Colagard test available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at
colagard.com slash podcast. Do not use the Colagard products if you have had adenomas, which
a type of colon polyp that can sometimes become cancer.
Inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary syndromes,
a personal or first-degree family history of colorectal cancer,
or a positive result from another colon cancer screening method
within that test's recommended screening interval.
Coligard results should be interpreted with caution.
A positive test result does not confirm the presence of cancer.
Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a colonoscopy.
A negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer.
Patients with a negative test result should discuss with their doctor
when they need to be tested again.
False positives and false negative results can occur.
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He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So, hey yo, congratulations to the Florida Panthers.
Second Stanley Cup in a row.
Canada still has not won a Stanley Cup in ages.
When I lived in South Florida, I used to go to the Panther Games.
They got to the Stanley Cup finals, I believe.
That's whenever they scored goals, we would throw rats onto the ice.
And I still remember as they won the one of the,
the division and they were going to the finals.
The headline on the Miami Herald was Buy More Rats.
Anyway, good for them.
My New York Rangers, I guess I'm going to have to be satisfied with,
what was the last time they won the Stanley Cup in the 90s when Messier was playing?
Be a chip while I'm alive.
I'm hopeful on my Mets this year.
But boy, oh boy, they're good at letting down at the end of the year.
Oh, well. Back on the Fed. So in case you don't know, I never watch the press conferences. There are a waste of time. I am not a fan of even having a central bank. I have yet to understand what they do. I believe they've done nothing but caused problems. We can go back to 0607. Ben Bernanke kept rates too low.
he's the guy supposed to oversee the banks and what did they do they were lending mortgages out
and the mortgage companies out to people that didn't have a dime in their pockets
which created a lot of the crazy to the upside in housing they did not oversee Wall Street either
that was doing mortgage-backed securities with 102030 to 1 the rating surfaces
were also complicit.
There's emails at the rating services
saying that
mortgage-backed security is a piece of crap.
They use the other word.
Goldman Sachs would put tranches together
of mortgage-backed securities
and then short them after they sold them.
These are true stories.
And the Fed has been,
hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil.
Jay Powell created the inflation that you saw.
It was not Joe Biden.
Joe Biden just helped it along.
Inflation started coming down when they stopped printing money.
Just remember, the definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.
And what that was was $9 trillion.
He wasn't the whole $9 trillion, but he ramped it to $9 trillion.
Once he stopped, started backing away.
That's when inflation came down.
Unfortunately, President Trump wants to go back to that again.
It scares the hell out of me that Trump is going to put in next year.
Excuse the way I'm going to say this.
A head of the central bank that's just going to kiss Trump's arse and do whatever he wants,
and that is bad news.
Because any president would want an easy money policy coming from your central bank.
Bank. He always said you have to be independent. That person will not be independent. And look out.
Easy money will lift markets until a brick wall is hit. And then all heck breaks loose.
I'm really worried about that. Who he's going to put in. He's already put, he's only hired
unloyalist, which is somewhat normal for every president,
but they've put in an overdrive.
I'll keep a close watch on it.
Back on markets of import.
We don't know how the market will react
if something does happen tomorrow.
And by the way, I do believe it would be tomorrow.
I don't know how the market's going to react.
But in real time, the S&P is just trading nicely and tightly
with a little bit of distribution the last few weeks.
In fact, it is flat, one, two, three, last four weeks.
And that's just fine.
no problem
the NASDAQ
a little bit better than flat
but with a little distribution
and what that means you've had some down days
with heavy volume
as of recent
haven't seen a lot of breakdowns
that's good news
if I start to see a bunch of breakdowns
we'll be talking
but I really don't know
how we are going to react
but in the past we've reacted well
I like the fact that the big banks had a good day today, Bank of New York to a new high.
Goldman, relative high, J.P. Morgan above a little range.
This is good to see.
The semis overall are up again today with some warts.
And I can all but promise you, if the financials, if the semis are acting,
just okay.
There's no chance of a bare market.
There are areas to avoid.
We have told you which ones they are.
We'll stick with that until that changes.
A big matzabal now to be watched is oil prices.
They've really gone up markedly in the last two to three weeks.
In fact, oil prices are up about 15% in about eight days.
if that sticks
you're going to be paying a lot higher price at the pump
in about a week
just remember they raise them
quicker
then they lower them
so that is a definitive wild card
on what we do and how we do it
I worry that
I don't understand
some of the things the president tweets
when he should shut up.
He's now backed himself in a corner.
Surrender or else basically stated.
They came back and said, go screw.
Now what do you do?
Now what do you do?
So we'll see.
Maybe we come back on Friday and they do nothing.
Don't know.
You know my guess.
Next up, have you been reading
what some of these food companies are going to be doing now?
Are they telling us that they've been putting a lot of crap in our food for years?
Because they're just backing away from a lot of food coloring and this chemical and that chemical.
We're hearing these things that cereal in Canada does not have a bunch of these chemicals,
but they put in our cereals here in the United States.
I mean, just what the hell has been going on.
I'm no Robert Kennedy fan at all,
because he lies too much,
especially on the vaccines.
But man, oh man, he's getting some things done.
And I'm reading up on some of these chemicals
that are coming out of our food.
And I'm thinking to myself,
do these food companies hate us?
Are they now telling us all those chemicals,
chemicals suck.
And they shouldn't have been there, even though we've been ingesting them forever.
By the way, food stocks are not acting very well right now.
Just letting you know.
And by the way, I did a little read on our bottled water companies.
There are no sweethearts either.
What is going on out there?
Up next.
Other news of the day.
This is the one only investors end.
by Colagard. If you ever printed out directions and I hoped you didn't miss a turn, it may be time
for you to screen for colon cancer. Luckily, things are a lot easier these days, even screening for colon
cancer. When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people. With more options
than ever, it's key to start screening at 45 if you are at average risk. The Colagard test is
non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and it ships right to your door, so you can
use it in the privacy of your own home. With just three simple steps, setup, sample, and ship,
completing your Colagard test is easier than finding the right track on your mixtape.
If you're 45 or older and at average risk, ask your doctor about the Colagard test available by prescription only.
Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast.
Do not use the Colagard products if you have had adenomas,
which are a type of colon polyp that can sometimes become cancer,
inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary syndromes,
a personal or first-degree family history of colorectal cancer
or a positive result from another colon cancer screening method
within that test's recommended screening interval.
Colagard results should be interpreted with caution. A positive test result does not confirm the presence of cancer. Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a colonoscopy. A negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer. Patients with a negative test result should discuss with a negative result. Fossi
and false positives and false negative results can occur. Do you still trust the corporate media? I know I don't. Get the real facts, the inside story behind the scenes in the Senate and the White House and the U.S. Supreme Court. Subscribe to Verdict with Ted Cruz on the IHart Radio app by Clicking the Attached link today.
paid for by Truth and Courage Pack
Not authorized by any candidate or candidates committee.
Truth and Couragepack.com.
Cashflow crunch.
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In the Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culper.
By the way, I meant that if some of you understand this stable coin crap and why it's the next big thing or great thing,
Please email me. I'm going to do my own on the airplane going up to the northeast tonight.
I'll spend some time on it. But I started reading already. For the life of me, I guess a stable coin represents money for each company. I don't. It's weird.
All I can tell you, Coinbase and Circle Internet Sword and MasterCard and Visa, they took out a machete and cut them off at the knees.
and then I was thinking also but wait a minute the banks are option the banks get hit also
I got a lot of things to study up ladies and gentlemen points is a lot of things I told you
yesterday we're going to do a big time on artificial intelligence we got very very our ears
got pinned back yesterday we were reading about what the Amazon CEO had to say and I just wonder
is AI all that it's cracked up to be
they're telling us that there's going to be a lot of jobs lost but a lot of jobs gained because of
AI so you better start learning it I think I've never really used it I'm being told forget
Google got to do chat GPT I'm so used to Google yeah we'll see how it goes all I know when I
started in this business
I had a little quote track
my charts
were blue and green books
from William O'Neill
delivered every Sunday
I used to take out a pencil
and fill them in every day
I mean we have come
very very far
I still remember mid-90
it was the mid-90s
Margot Vuisich walks into my office
at J.W. Charles
Securities
and says just let you know
we're going to be setting you up with inter-office email.
And I said, what's that?
Oh, you're going to be able to email me directly and back and forth.
And I'm like, why can't I just come into your office?
I had no idea what the email would do.
And then with the internet, there were so many doubts about it.
And I still remember, but I've said this before.
When I was a kid, you know, my Google.
was the Encyclopedia Britannica one year old. Hey, look up with Abraham Lincoln. What do you get?
About two pages and the Cyclopedia Britannica. Now anything. Amazing. Our kids don't know how good
they have it when it comes to educating themselves. That's why when I see some of these teens and
young people holding up Hamas lovers and hating of Israel.
And I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute, wait a minute.
All they got to do is look things up, but they don't because they don't want to.
They just fall in line with hate.
It's pretty much sickening.
Also in the news, I got to tell you, I've told you this.
before. I love the food channel. I watch Beat Bobby Flee, chopped, iron chef, you name it. One of my favorites,
a woman named Anne Burrell just died in her sleep at 55 years old. She was one of the stars of the
Food Channel, hosted our own show.
55.
55.
Enjoy everyday, ladies and gentlemen.
You don't know.
You just don't know.
I was thinking about that all day today.
You just don't know.
Yesterday, we're moving on.
I said to you there's no chance of recession or a big contraction in the economy at
this juncture because the market says so. I caught some crap from people. That's cool.
I'm going to repeat it. I've never ever seen a down economy that did not start with the market going
bearish. I'm letting you know again. Right now we're getting a lot of real-time moves because of we have the
most news-driven market. But the normality is the markets will be able to telegraph big economic
trouble a few months in advance. And typically by the time we're in a recession or a contraction,
we're already halfway or even more through the bare market. And I'm just letting you know
there is zero chance if banks are acting well, if semiconductors are acting well, if semiconductors are acting well,
Now, not all is perfect.
The housing stocks, horrible.
The housing business, not very good.
Earnings weighed down yesterday for Lenard.
Sales were even down.
But I'm just letting you know again.
And I'm always amazed about people predicting June instead of listening to the market.
It shouldn't be too tough.
The market has great eyes.
and a voice.
You should listen.
Tomorrow will be the best of Gary.
We'll be back Friday,
and we'll see if anything goes on tomorrow.
Should be interesting.
You'll have a great evening.
Drive carefully when you get home.
Do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise they will be well.
Peace out all.
Good night.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryKK dot com.
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