Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Kamala [07.23.2024]
Episode Date: July 23, 2024www.garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom.
I'm your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you listen.
I know it's Tuesday.
It's July beats the, oh, it's the 23rd.
And I should know that.
Do you know 23 is my lucky number?
All my addresses had 23.
in it. If I ever play roulette, 23, and it comes up very often. It's just, I don't know why, but
23. But hey, hi, what's up? This is your host, Gary Kallpomber, with lipomas on my elbows.
That's how I'm introducing myself today. You ever watch Dr. Pimple Popper on TV? I've watched it a few times.
She gets rid of these things called lipomas that are on people's bodies. And I don't know what
happened in the last month. I have a small one on my left elbow. I have a big one on my right elbow.
It's almost the size of a golf ball, about a half a golf ball, but you can see it. And I read up on it,
where do these things come from? It says hereditary and all that. And I'm like, wait a minute,
none of my family has it, but then it also says could be an injury. And I'm thinking of myself,
what kind of injury? Or if you use your elbows a lot, I'm like, wait a minute, when did I use my
elbows a lot? It turns out I do a lot of preacher curls. And I think that's what I'm
what did it. Anyway, I'm going to see the Dr. Pimple Popper that's here in the next week, and I gather
he'll take him out. It's amazing. Things just pop up on your body as you get older. You've got to see
my right elbow. It's like a red golf ball on there. Anyway, how's that for introductions?
But more important introduction, in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything
that affects you. And right now, we're doing a little bit more of covering this nonsensical
election, we'll explain in a second, because it will matter going forward, especially if one of the
parties has the House, Senate, and the White House, which I don't think is going to happen,
and that's good news, but we've found out that the president can just do anything he wants.
He can give away our tax dollars to anybody he wants. He can take away from anybody he wants.
He can stop this, he can advance that without anything out of the House and the Senate.
When did we become Venezuela?
By the way, that's a good question.
When did we become Venezuela?
How is it a president can give our tax dollars a way to people to take care of their loans?
For any loan?
Well, some courts are against it and they've stopped it, but we'll see how it plays out anyway.
Again, serious talk on everything affects you will do markets, the economy, jobs, your industry, unemployment, taxes, debt, deficits, scams, shams, corruption, you name it.
We cover it with, let me be clear about this.
No bias agenda, ulterior motive, except three words, we the people.
We left the Republican Party ages ago because we saw what they were doing.
The Republican Party became the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party became the Marxist Party.
and we've just had enough of all of them at this point in time,
and $35 trillion of debt defines these people.
That's all.
Anybody want to argue the point?
You can't.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed,
which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should follow us on X.
We're pretty cool.
And you can email me just be nice.
By the way, we do not.
We will talk markets on X.
But we don't do like others.
You know, there are some money managers.
God bless them.
They, when they buy something for clients, they'll put it up there.
And so I can't do that because if I do that on Twitter, but I decide to sell the next day and somebody doesn't see it, I'm just, I can't do that.
That's just the nature of how I feel about these things, which takes us to the ongoings.
And of course, this election is going to be meaningful because.
We have big, we have huge opposites.
And we're just talking tax policy and regulatory policy.
You have one that wants to lower taxes.
Forget everything else for a second.
You have one that wants to lower taxes.
You have another that wants to raise taxes with some proposals that are, in my humble opinion,
beyond the beyond and absolutely insane.
I don't think they could happen, but you never know.
I never thought anybody can print a $9 trillion distorting markets like crazy.
One man with no accountability in Jay Powell.
You never know what these people could get away with.
That's why the we the people.
So it's going to matter, which takes me to the backup a second.
So my one thought today was I never want to hear from this Democratic Party, which I call Marxist Party,
I don't want to hear another freaking word out of their mouth about democracy.
You know what they've been saying for months.
If you vote for Donald Trump, the democracy will be gone.
these people are so full of crap that if you stuck them in a field with cows and all of the dung you could not tell what from what
and let me give you the facts of life on their democracy for the last we even told you what was going on
we predicted it to the day what was happening that they were going to throw the president of
States under the bus because he was behind in the polls.
You got that?
They were going to throw him under the bus.
They colluded with the media, who started going after him, with celebrities that came
out against them, always with the upfront.
We love you, Joe, but.
And colluded with the higher ups, the power base in the point.
party to kick his
arse out.
And the other side of it,
which we'll get to in a minute,
was to install
somebody,
not elect somebody
to go up against Trump,
because if this was done months ago,
there would have been primaries.
And just so you know,
Kamala Harris
pulled 1%
in the last primaries.
and I can guarantee you she would not have won this primary if she was up against others.
But I backtrack again to, for example, who was one of the culprits in the celebrity world?
It started with Obama getting Clooney out there to say, Joe, you got to go.
We love you, but you got to go.
This is how they went about this.
Today, George Clooney, I will read his exact words.
President Biden has shown what true leadership is.
He's saving democracy once again.
We're all so excited to do whatever we can to support Vice President Harris in her historic quest.
George Clooney would know democracy if it stuck it up his ass.
Excuse me.
Arse.
My bad.
Democracy.
This was a coup.
I don't want to hear another word from this party.
on this. Chuck Schumer today. Chuck Schumer. That Chuck Schumer was out today. We are here today to throw our support behind Vice President Kamala Harris. Kamala Harris. We've gone through the process and what process? There was no election. There was nothing.
They timed it perfectly.
So I don't want to hear another word out of any of these bozos.
They're a bunch of lion sacks that don't give a crap about our democracy.
One iota.
They can't say another word about Trump.
I've said plenty about Trump on January 6 and the rest of that crap.
And I still can't stand when Trump says they're hostages, the ones that are in jail.
But that's for another day, which takes me to today.
I think they're forgetting something, the Marxist party.
She's left of Biden, who's left of Sanders, of Bernie.
We've proven that.
And unlike Trump, where everything they have on him or anything they think is bad about him is already out there.
What else are they going to put out on Trump?
they've given him a colonoscopy every day.
Hardly anything's out there on Kamala Harris,
and you wouldn't believe some of her proposals
throughout the years.
You wouldn't believe it.
And you're going to get a hell of a lot of it
because the Republican Party,
video after video, is coming.
Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it,
we'll get to the markets.
Much more. I'm Gary.
This is the one only Investors Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum,
hosted a nationally syndicated radio show
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dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture
X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for
details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading
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Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Well, Joe Biden, who by the way, I feel bad for.
Take the politics out of it for a second.
Put the man back in there.
I feel bad for him.
He was kicked in the butt.
by people that he thought were behind him, with him, for him.
They're only for their power.
Which takes me to the other part.
The Tsar of the border.
Oh, she's going to get a ton of that.
But Joe Biden is leaving us with proposals on taxes.
He wants to take long-term capital gains from 20 to 44.6%.
That has been proposed under the,
Biden Harris administration. He has proposed an unrealized capital gain of 25%. And let me define that.
If you have an asset that's up 100 grand this year, but you're not selling it. You don't pay
taxes want something you don't sell. They want you to pay taxes on something you haven't sold,
which is on its face, the most insane stupidity on earth that can't work, but yet they still have
about and proposed it. They have floated a wealth tax. In other words, you make too much money.
And this is above a certain level. You are taxed already. You're going to get taxed when you
die. Well, we're going to just tax you every year on how much you have now. So the first part of the
con is spend like crazy us into debt and deficits. Beyond the beyond the beyond, the
second part, give us the financial colonoscopy and then extract. Ooh, that's not a good
picture. All that's coming out. We'll be on it. With no bias agenda, alterimotive, except
we the people. My simple, my platform, if I was president, we're going to keep your taxes
low. We're going to keep government in check. We're going to have government that's efficient,
effective and accountable to you. We're not going to raise spending infinitum. We're going to
defend the country. We're going to applaud the police and the firemen and the teachers.
We're going to incentivize the teachers to be better and be great. We're going to make sure
legal immigration takes precedent over illegal. What concepts, huh?
What logic the Colpom platform would be?
How's that for a platform?
Deficits?
We'll finish up with a couple of things.
My prediction is she chooses Mark Kelly of Arizona for VP.
A, because they need Arizona.
B, he's an astronaut.
And a good guy.
he's not one of these
flame throwers
yeah he's probably not the
you know he's not
you know the real
exciting but
I think he'll be the
pick
the better pick would have been
the governor of Pennsylvania Shapiro
but amazingly the talk of him
being Jewish
is bad
which fits in well
with Kamala Harris
not presiding
over in the Senate, Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of one of the greatest democracies of all time
and the only one in the Middle East, which sickens the hell out of me and speaks for itself.
And as you know, this administration was silent on Jews being attacked on the college campuses.
And negotiating with Hamas behind Israel's back. By the way, in case you don't know,
admitted to that. I haven't covered that too much lately because they're kicking Hamas's
rear end. There can be nothing left when all said and done. Next, you read about this Menendez
guy out of New Jersey. He's a Democrat. He's out. They were going to expel him. He's a freaking
crook. He should have been out a long time ago for other things, but they finally got him on this.
So he's quitting. And to be fair and balanced, as we always are, thank God that,
Moron Republican George Santos was out very quickly.
A freaking fraud gets in the House of Representatives and this guy, George Santos, made up his whole life.
And he got into the house.
So Menendez's gone, Santos gone, and one more that's gone.
If I was the head of the Secret Service and I wanted to be the fired or forced to resign,
I would have done exactly and said exactly what that woman said in front of the
powers that be yesterday. Boy, was she bad. She made the presidents of the Ivy League schools
talking about anti-Semitism look good. That's how bad she was. So she's out. She resigned today.
And that's the big Washington, D.C. News of the day except 6 to 7 billion was added to our debt
again today and grows every day. And what can I tell you? All right, aftermarket of import.
a couple of big ones that everybody wants to know about.
Are you ready?
Google, Amazon, amazingly down 50 cents, that's it.
Google down 50 cents.
Make that 25 cents, not even moving, which is a big wow.
Tesla closed at 246, I got it at 236.
So it is down $10, but Tesla's had a pretty good move here recently.
I haven't looked at either in the numbers.
I don't know if it really changes the playing field that much.
And that's that.
And of course, they do conference calls and they talk up their companies and they'll probably
mention AI and all that fun stuff to goose their stocks.
And we'll see what happens as we come in tomorrow morning.
Next, Texas Instruments, an important semiconductor, was down $7.5 today
because another company that kind of sort of in their industry,
NXPI, Semiconductor was down 23.
So it was down $7.5.
But in the aftermarket, it's up $7.90.
So it's up $0.28 for the day.
Texas Instruments.
Visa, down $4.5 in the aftermarket.
And I got to tell you,
Visa and MasterCard stock have not been acting well at all.
So Visa's down.
And I think there was one more I had an interest in.
let's see if they reported Capital One Financial
I think it's down three bucks
Seagate Tech
up $6
And today there was some big moves
You ready
GE was up nine
Lockheed Martin saying they're selling a lot more defense stuff
Up 26 today
About 5%.
Spotify up 3%.
Spotify up 3%.
Spotify, up 35, Sherwin Williams 22, SAP 14.
Up next, the rest of the market.
I'm Gary, thanks to joining.
This is the one only Investors' Edge.
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This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.
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The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
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America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And walk once again to Investors Edge.
Google's now up a buck and change.
Tesla is now only down $8.
See they move around
And who knows what's happened
As I mentioned
SAP an important software company
Gaps up to a new high
Up 14 today
On their earning
Sherwin Williams I hear they got good paint
Up 22 today
No sales growth whatsoever
Spotify was up 35 today
Was up 45 though
So a little distribution
Pretty strong numbers there
I mentioned GE
Lockheed Martin
They're selling more defense stuff
because we got to defend.
Earnings were only up 6%, but the stock was up $26.
Today, that was a new high.
So a lot of jello moving on the plate, ladies and gentlemen,
and a lot more earnings to come in the days ahead.
We'll stay on top of it.
Today, just so I don't know if you know this,
you know what I love about the one thing I love most for markets to do?
I love when the indices do nothing.
No, really.
If you told me that for the next six months,
the big indices would be up as much as 5%
and down as much as 5%.
But that's it.
Just trade in between.
I'd be the happiest guy.
Do you know why?
Because that means it's range bound.
I don't have to worry about the wild swings.
But out of that range bound,
great stocks will show up.
When you get wild swings, you get wild swings that drive you up a freaking wall.
So today the Dow was only down 57.
The NASDAQ was down 10.
Weird though, the NASDAQ 100 was down 68 today with the NASDAQ only down 10.
The blame was semiconductors, rough day down another 80 today.
And the socks, strong day yesterday, but still very mushy right now.
Very mushy with a bunch of stocks below resistance and moving averages.
Of course, we'll go through earnings season and we'll see what happens.
What's strong still, regional banks, strong.
The new yearly high list right now is laden with a bunch of four-letter symbol, regional banks and S&L, small.
think companies I've never heard of that don't trade a lot but are a big part of the small and mid-cap indices
and also other financials are strong right now also whether it's black rock near the highs
blackstone at the highs you have other big banks what we call in shape not really
going big but in shape versus a lot of stuff that's been trashed.
So that's an area that's still getting the juice.
A decent day in some, not all, economically sensitive names.
Not all, but Sherwin Williams sticks out, as I mentioned to you.
Even Boeing's getting a little bit better here, though, not so sure.
And then again, we're going to have all these.
earnings reports and I can guarantee you I have zero clue who's going to gap up or who's going to
gap down I think we'll have some bad stocks gap up good stocks gap down it's the nature of the
beast the markets are fluid what's not doing the job I can tell you big oil acts not very well here
at all big oil stocks a lot of the oils does not act well at all and oil prices
fortunately tanked a little bit in the last few days and if it sticks prices will come down at the
pump good to see a lot the transports while they rallied up there's still a lot in bad shape
and unfortunately while FedEx gapped up recently UPS gaped down you ready for UPS the last four-quarter earnings
four quarters minus 47 this is year over year
Minus 32, minus 35, minus 30.
Boy, that sucks.
Packar.
You ever hear of them?
Trucks, down 11% today.
9% drop in earnings, sales drop.
Guess what those two did.
Affected others.
Rails that have been better.
Not much, though.
You know, down 10, up three.
That's not a great recipe.
A great recipe is up, 10, down three.
So the transports, though as a whole, came up strong with the small and mid on an individual basis.
Ew.
And there's so much I think FedEx is going to lead because FedEx revenue growth plus one.
Just remember, one of the great drivers of a stock is the ability to grow the business.
And there's so much you can do with better earning.
and no sales growth.
You know, sometimes, oh, you got rid of 10% of the employees or you shut some unprofitable
stores.
So your earnings go up and your stock goes up, but if you're not growing, your stock ends up hitting a wall.
So the transports.
And then I just got a pretty good list of crap that just ain't working.
In the Dow, Disney, another relative low.
travelers
McDonald's
a bunch of down names
still acting like crap
so it's
you can't throw darts
it's the best way I can put it
but what we do here on a daily basis
just keep lists
list after list after list
relative strength
and if the market's getting trashed
and 10 stocks are holding up great
or even going up it's going to tell us about them
If the market is skyrocketing and 10 stocks are getting trashed, oh, that tells us a lot too.
And you know where we want to be.
So it's earnings season, and we'll see what shows up.
Wish I knew.
I'm always asked, do you ever, you know, take a shot getting into something before earnings because you have an inkling?
No!
As much as they tell you, the stock market is not easy.
We try not to make it harder than it is.
That's our take.
As we're in earning season and where she stops beats the heck out of us.
But those are the areas that are better, but things are going to change
and we'll be here to see how they play out.
Tesla, now down in the aftermarket, only five bucks.
was down 15.
Google now is up two bucks.
There you go.
So a little bit better.
And just remember, you're always careful about the CEOs.
We used to have CEOs on the show.
But every one of them to a person would say,
everything's great, everything's great.
No, everything's great.
Oh, that's good.
It's good.
It's great, great, great, great.
And you know what they're all doing now?
Artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence.
No artificial intelligence.
No artificial intelligence.
And it's tiresome.
So we'll just watch the stocks, look at the reactions, look at the actual numbers, and get a good feel.
And then close our eyes, hold our nose and pray, which is we always say to you, we've tried, does not work.
And that's a little bit of the story.
We'll see how it plays out overnight.
And guess what?
tomorrow
Ford
Chipotle
AmeriPrize
IBM and the Dow
KLA 10 car
Las Vegas Sands
Raymond James
the waste management
companies
United Rentals
Qualcomm
it doesn't stop
and then next week
we get the maniacs
at the Fed
Tuesday and Wednesday
I believe
to tell us
blah blah blah blah
and blah blah blah
and blah blah blah blah
blah, as they say God is spoken. That's who they think. They think they're God.
Oh, by the way, if I was president, there would be no central bank. If there was, I can promise
you the word neutered would come to mind. It would be a sheer impossibility for them to get
away with some of the crap that they've tried, that they have gotten away with. And
they would be accountable.
Up next.
I got 50 emails today.
Gary, what do you think a crowd strike?
We'll answer that and more.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
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Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
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changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code
Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits
you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse.
used relatives, and saying things like,
Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might
someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
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One, two, ready, go.
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Investors Edge with Gary Culper.
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So, human nature and the markets.
human nature in the markets, listen carefully, this is important.
And this is why one of the things we were taught by O'Neill that we never believed we really pay attention to, and that is, the biggest winners of the prior bull market, once you go into a bear market, will drop on average 70%.
Nobody believed us.
Nobody believed us.
I didn't believe it until a bear market showed up and then we started studying past ones and get
Guess what? In 22, they did. A bunch of stocks, the big winners dropped 70%.
And when the bare market ends, the great ones come back quicker than others and the crappy ones stayed down like beyond meat and stuff like that.
But human nature has people, and it is human nature, they want to believe what has worked will continue to work.
and they hold on like there's no tomorrow.
I remember in 2000 that I think it was two years into the bare market or maybe a year and a half.
We started seeing people would show up and nobody was selling.
they rode down all of the past winners
and some of them were down 80%,
yet they were still great companies,
but they were down 80%.
And the reason is
they got them up to 100 times earnings.
I remember Walmart got the 60 times earnings.
And you just don't want to let go.
And I understand that.
So it's no sense.
surprised that I've received a bunch of inquiries about CrowdStrike in the last day.
And I figured this is a good time to talk human nature without telling you what the stock's
going to do, because I don't know. CrowdStrike just dropped from 398 to 268 in 10 trading days.
and since this occurrence has dropped from 343 to 268.
Interesting that an analyst downgraded it today, by the way.
And the question is, well, don't you think they're going to be okay?
I think, yeah, I do believe they're going to be okay,
but I want you to think about logic.
Remember, Mr. Logic.
We're finding out now that, I believe, was it, 300, S&P 500 companies use CrowdStrike and nobody else?
What do you think a bunch of them are going to do?
Three words.
Spread the risk.
Why?
well, go ask Delta, who by the way, has the biggest brunt of all this.
So one would have to believe they're going to lose some business.
That would be a logical guess.
How much we don't know.
But I will guarantee you, Crowdstrike is going to put the biggest foot forward.
They already are about apologizing.
And they're not going to rest on this.
They will go back to work.
I'm sure they have salespeople going to be calling companies, bring them in.
But again, because what do you think the competition is going to be doing?
Oh, hello, Mr. Jones.
I understand you've been working with CrowdStrike.
Well, it did not happen to us.
Can we talk?
Oh, how much are you paying?
We'll undercut that.
What kind of service you're getting?
Well, we'll double that.
Just talking business and logic here.
So already I'm giving you some very logical thoughts on this,
which are not good news.
They're not good news for CrowdStrike,
which gets me to the stock because I have absolutely no idea what's next.
And I can tell you today,
on the downgrade it hit
258 so it was down 6
I can tell you today it hit
277 so it was up 14
and I can tell you it finished only up
5 at any
given point in time
you can probe
just see stops
if it keeps going
lower don't be a fool
but for us
we have a specific
discipline that we
follow
that does not enable us to just,
let's take a shot.
What CrowdStrike's going to have to do as a stock
is first and foremost,
show some defense,
which means show me a place
where I can draw a line under the price
that I have some confidence will not break below,
but if it does, I stop out with small.
And I can promise you,
that usually does not happen in a day.
It usually takes a little bit.
Now, can it just V shape up?
Yes, sure.
Anything's possible.
I would gather the CEO and other people that work there,
probably going to buy some stock
to show confidence in their company.
Maybe that does the trick.
I don't know.
Maybe they pre-announce very good numbers,
though, not so sure that would be the wise move
right now. We're just letting you know we don't throw darts. We have a strict discipline that keeps us
out of trouble. And that goes for something like this. Don't get me wrong. The greed in us
want us, ooh, what if this can, the smarten us just takes a step back. There you have it. That all said,
Me and my lipoma say, have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
Make sure you hug your grandchildren now.
That's what I get to do.
Same time tomorrow.
Have a great one.
Thanks for joining.
Peace out.
Serenity now.
Good night.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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