Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Less Than Meets The Eye!

Episode Date: September 22, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Thursday, September 22nd, 2022. hope you're having a good day. As always, serious talk on you and everything that affects you with a little comedy injected from moi. Of course, less comedy these days because there is nothing funny about a lot of the you know what that has been going on as of late in many areas of the nightmare. And we'll get into that. Now ladies and gentlemen, what we do first and foremost, first and foremost is in bare markets, we separate ourselves from the pack. In markets where asset prices are heading south, we separate ourselves from the pack. The reason this is, and it's not hard,

my industry is a fully invested vehicle you know that right we have said to you before this latest bare markets showed up that in bare markets you will get no help from wall street you will get the same lingo and the same language don't worry everything's okay it'll come back think long term, look out five years, look out 10 years. It's a great company. If you liked it a hundred, you got to love it at 80. If you loved it at 80, you got adored at 50. You know, all that. What we have done with our little industry here is we have studied under the greatest market eyes in the history of markets and their ability to see and more importantly teach others what we have called for you the roadmap of what bull and bear markets look like, act like, react to

by Wall Street, and so on and so forth. What we have told you, it's hard work. In case you did not know, here's how my days go. A, we wake up at 6. We go over what we saw the night before. We have the market the whole day. At the end of the market, and we're scanning throughout the whole day. And what we mean by scanning, stock after,

stock after stock, sector after sector after sector, country after country after country, commodity after commodity bond markets and the interworkings of them. In other words, if interest rates are going up, what do you think housing stocks are going to do if interest rates are coming down? Housing stocks particularly go up. And then when we close out this radio show, which we pre-tape at 4 p.m. and are done about 440. Take a little time out, get the workouts in, pay attention to Winston, take them for long walk, long run, and then we scan the market.

We will scan about approximately anywhere from, depending on the day, 1,200 to 1,500 stocks. Now, there's thousands more stocks out there, but we do not scan penny stocks. We do not scan dollar stocks. We do not scan things that trade 5,000 shares a day. Normally, we don't scan what we call the hunks of junk, but we've had to do that in the last year because the hunks of junk went skyward. One of the things we warned you about. and then when we're done scanning and keep in mind when we're scanning,

we already have a good feel what's going on because that's an ongoing job that we do. And then we put the pieces of the puzzle together. Assume we know what a good up trend and a downtrend is and you should know by now that we do. We've given you the example on this show. What if there were only 100 stocks in the market? Just 100. And those hundred stocks are in a definable uptrend. Well, it means the market's in a definable uptrend.

What happens if 15 of those stocks stop going up and start heading towards the right, horizontal? In other words, not going down, but no longer going up. Markets still in an up trend, but you've got 15 stocks you've got to be watching. What if those 15 stocks start heading down? Well, you still have 85 going up, 15 coming down, all right. Well, what if it turns into 70, 30? And the 70 stop going up and 30 are going down in a definable downtrend.

Well, guess what that means? The market's got some trouble. And then the 70 put in real tops and 30 of them start going down. well even more trouble that's the intensive work that we do to give us a darn good understanding what is happening in the markets and the ability to guide you away from the markets away from the bad areas away from the worst stocks and what if by chance 80 stocks are in a downtrend but 20 stocks remain in an uptrend but the indices are still not moving down the market down. How can that be? Well, if the top five of that 20 that are moving up are 50% of the index,

and that's what happened in the last year, where the top five names made up 40-some-odd percent of the NASDAQ 100, and they were masking all kinds of problems underneath the surface. And what if you're in a bare market, but the indices are not breaking into new low ground, but a thousand stocks are. What does that mean? Well, we warned you several occasions in the last year in pending trouble for the indices because new yearly lows kept picking up. Those are average stocks.

And we know by study that when the average stock is breaking into low ground before the indices, usually it's a matter of time before the indices follow. Why? Because the indices will always hold up better. Why? Oh, because money will roll into defensive, liquid names, big names that have a big influence. How do we know all this? We've studied every bull and bear market. These are the type of the intensive work that we do that we show in our webcasts to our members and you really should try them out. We never really market it that much. But we have these webcasts we do every night just five, six days a week, and it shows all this. And it showed our ability to stay away from disaster. And when we mean disaster, we mean freaking disaster. Whether it's a peloton that was hailed as the second coming that has gone from 171 down. to eight or these crazy short squeeze stocks that we pleaded with you to be careful with that dropped

80, 90 percent or the coins and the coin stuff, you know, the ones that trade the coins. And on and on and on and on, it comes from intensity. It comes from passion. It comes from time. it comes from sweat, it comes from toil, it's come from failure, it's come from success, it's come from going back and study. Two weeks ago, for our members, we went back to pass bare markets and we showed them because our software allows us to do that. But on the other end, and we told you, what we went and studied was, the great stocks that came out of bare markets and what they look like.

We told you about an LA geek. That's my music. We'll explain more in a second. And then we'll do the market wrapping all that other stuff. I thank you for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee. on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing

is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 8-5-59. That's 888-4-2-4-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb Capital Management. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision, for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum,

or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?

There will come a point when it will mature. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first Volt-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills

and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire. APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to.

Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So as we were saying, we've gone back to the end of bare markets. What stock shot out of a cannon?

What was the characteristics that they had? And they pretty much all had the same. I explained to out of the crash in 87, LA Gear was breaking out a range before the market crash. You can tell it was breaking out. Why? Because the company was kind of sort in its infancy, and they were going to sell tons of sneakers and whatever they were selling going forward. But the crash crashed the stock.

In case you don't know, the crash ended and then never went lower, but the market did nothing for like a year, just drifted and drifted and drifted. But LA gear, what did it do? It put in a stiff bottom, rallied up, work through the supply of the people that are thanking the Lord, they're getting back even. sat around, rallied back up, sat around again, then broke into new high ground and went up 17-fold in 15 months because of gargantuan revenue and earnings growth. Home Depot and Walmart out of 82. What did they have going for it? Very simple. Category killers being able to place their stores anywhere and be successful.

and those stocks were kicking ass while the market was in the throes of its last vicious leg down. It was already leading up and then when the market stopped going down, they soared. So what do we do? We study them. And you know how we're spending our hours right now? That we have missed this bare market? We're just studying bottoms of bare markets. and what stocks led, and what did they look like?

What characteristics? Show me what they look like. What was going on? And they all were the same, we found out. They all had amazing earnings and revenue growth already. They all bottomed way before the market bottom, and some of them were already kicking in gear and were the first to break into new yearly high ground

before anything else. And that's all we're doing right now. Now, guess what? We know we're in the throes of a bare market still, so there's really not much to do. But we want to be on this now. This bare market may last another year. For all we know, the S&P is going to drop 40

and the NASDAQ's going to drop 60. We don't know that, and we don't need to know. that. We just know when there's a big downtrend or up trend, what's leading, what's lagging. We're bringing this up because one of our 10 mantras of the markets, especially bare markets, is before the bear market ends, eventually they get them all. What do we mean by that? anything holding up as we go into further legs of the bare market. Eventually they get them.

Doesn't matter how good they are, what they do, how strong they are. Eventually they get them. Today they got some today. And that's why we bring it up. One of our mantras was taken care of today. To what extent we don't know. Now, I will tell you what was interesting about today, before I give you the final number, the Dow at 348 was up about 100.

While advanced declines were 700 up 3,500 down. What? On the New York. How can the Dow be up 100? It's simple. We have explained to you one of the things that happens in markets is the parking of money in the most liquid names and where do they find it? The big, the Johnson and Johnson and the Merks, when the Dow was up 100, you ready for this number? 1,800 and 11 stocks are at new yearly lows. None of the indices are. What have we taught you about that? But the Dow was up 100 at 350.

The NASDAQ's been woeful all day. And I'll get to the leading names in a minute. it. Well, because a market can't stand the weight of weakness. By the close, the market dropped and still finished down 100, but it might as well have been 600. Because at the close today, there were 1,821 stocks. Make it 41. Make it 41. It's updating. 1841 stocks in new yearly lows. Advanced declines on the New York was 720 up 3510 down on the NASDAQ 857 up 3557 down. A horror show. It might as well have been 600. And then this. What group have we told you is held up best? The Solars. What name have we told you has held up best? Symbol EnPH, N phase.

End phase today down $21. Broke initial support. At the lows of the last eight weeks and sitting right at the 50-day moving average, with some volume. Of course, other solas went along for the ride. What do we say? Eventually they get everything. How about this name? Shockwave Medical, SWA-V.

This has been another name that's been a rock. down 26 bucks today to 259 on volume. Chipotle, I have been mentioning how Chipotle has been a port in the storm ever since earnings. Down 77 bucks today. This is while the Dow was still up 100. And I can go through the rest, but that speaks volumes, just mentioned those. A horrible advanced decline today. A horrible expansion of new yearly lows.

And the Dow was only down 100. Up next, more on the markets. News of the day. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.

At IBM research, what we all, always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?

There will come a point when it will mature. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,

APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel you. the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.edu. Cash flow crunch. OnDek's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing,

and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And what once again to Investors Edge. Thanks of being with us today.

So they came after most anything that is held up today. You know where that money went? Merck. Procter & Gamble, Verizon, United Health, Johnson and Johnson. The Dow might as well have been down $6,700 today with how bad the average stock was. As I look around my little screens here, the transports down another $294. In the transports, Avis rent a car down 7-8%. Old Dominion freight, 3.5%.

rails truckers semiconductors yonked yonked retail yonked the software slash tech slash all that

yonked today's advanced declines and new yearly lows might as well have been a dow down 600 700 700 800 and i must tell you with ten minutes to go when the dow was up i was thinking man, this is one of those big, big scam days where the report, hey, the Dow's up and not realize how bad the market is, but they sold it off into the close. So we just want to start off, just giving you an idea what we put into this.

We ain't screwing around. And we told you up front. We told you up front. And we're very careful with our words. We're not into padding on the back. But we told you over a year ago, you would better start listening to the show. In bull markets, a, you know, spy an index. In bear markets, you better be listening to us and following us.

And we've done it again. Now, there's a big question being asked of us. And the answer we always usually give is we don't know and we don't need to know. And that's how far it goes, how long it lasts. what did we tell you starting more than two years ago? We're worried about a big bust. Central bank-induced bubbles leads to bus. And due to the fact this central bank created the greatest bubble of all time,

the bubble was the printing of $9 trillion to distort everything. And we told you, we told you this, the biggest distortions in the bond markets. That turned out to be true. And you know what the bond market's doing now? It's shooting the middle finger back at Jay Powell. And of course, we're the victims. You ready for this?

Today, the yield on the 10-year went from 3.50, 3.510 to 3.708. You know what that means for mortgage rates in the next couple of weeks? another spike. The two-year yields at 4.12. They're still way behind. The one-year yield is at 4.07. Jay Powell's at 3. What have we told you about that?

It's like me running a race against Usain Bolt. That's how far behind he is. And we have a market that knows. It's not just me knowing. The market knows. He doesn't know what he's doing. And he's still trying to play God with everything. And they don't shut up.

And I do worry. I do worry that we got a 30-50, and that's 30 on the S&P 50 on the NASDAQ. And by the way, we're getting there. Every asset price, every data point, every economic statistic lived off a fantasy land, a rigged and manipulated bond market that screwed Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob with zero percent rates and leveraged everything to the hilt. we warned about the outcome of that that there's no way this can last forever we warned you about somebody playing God with all this

you are seeing the downside of it and he's playing God the other way now he should have shut up yesterday and just said we're going to do everything we can and shut up but no they had to show their hand and their hand was even more stupidity which turned into another 500 yesterday

and a real wicked day today even though the Dow was only down 100 the only thing we can tell you right now is today was a bad day with the Dow only down 100 if the major indices get taken out to the downside it's going to invite more odds picked up today markedly that happens.

Why? 1,141 new yearly lows, even though the indices did not and have not yet. It's classic that they will follow. We wish we had better news for you. We'd love to have better news. But they came after the darlings today. They parked money in the big areas, which made the Dow better.

But the advanced declines miserable, the up-down volume miserable, and a big shoot up in New Yearly lows with yields spiking even more. And I'm sure you have read what's going on in housing now. We predicted that over a year ago. We told it was a gimme. The last vestige was people jumping all over each other, bidding higher over each other than what anybody was even offering. It was classic late cycle stupidity. So we have gone coast to coast now.

People thinking, if I don't buy today, I'll pay more tomorrow. To people thinking, I ain't buying anything because I know it's going lower tomorrow. and both feed on themselves. And now we got the downside. And as I have said to you, there isn't a night that doesn't go by that I don't look at it. Inventory picking up every day. Buying hardly anything. Price is coming down.

Days to sell longer and longer. It's classic. We also told you just based on study, the worst areas will be the ones areas that were the best areas. Why? They did the Eiffel Tower move. Straight up, come straight down. That's the climactic move.

We had it again. Where it stops, we don't know. We just think there's more time and price. The official market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man. You're either in a out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment dash models.com. Dowdown 107 S&P 32, NASDAQ 153, NASDAQ 100, 136. By the way, real bad last 10 minutes. The socks down 70, transports almost down 300. And we told you, new yearly lows, 1841. Advanced declines miserable. Up down volume, miserable. spike in interest rates again today.

Unbelievable. The rate, it's not just how far we've come on interest rates, it's how fast we've come. And that's the unwinding of the distortion that we warned you about. Up next, news of the day and whatever else today. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM.

I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software

30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept. that there's a different way to do things.

To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive, an American public university is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh,

or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. Cash flow crunch. OnDEC's small business line of credit

gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com.

Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow, Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Investors Edge with Gary Culper. All right. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. Again, we wish we had better news, but we get what we get. And as I stated, we're very careful with our words. We're really worried. You know, you've got a lot of stocks down 80, 90% already.

Stocks that couldn't do that. And as I look at my screens here today, beat red. As we've stated all along in real time, we're even stunned. Even though we pretty much warned. But as you get to the reality of it, stunning. just a year ago, got to own, got to own, got to own, got to own, got to own, got to own, got to own. And the got to owns are being destroyed, wealth destroyed.

Again, for the umpteenth time, we hope you've been listening. We mean business about every dime, whether you do or not. And when things go awry, this market can be a beat. And unfortunately Wall Street's doing the same crap again. Pundits on TV that are fully invested. Think long time. Yeah, really? And I really don't think people understand what we do.

We're coming off of bubbles. We didn't come off a garden variety bull market. Excessive valuations. Excessive froth. Excessive speculation. excesses leverage. That's all being worked off now. The economy.

Our guess, which has been pretty damn good, we have a recession of consequence. Our guess, it'll be reflected in the job market soon. I'm stunned that the media has not pounced on Jay Powell one iota, not one question yesterday you take any blame for the inflation after printing $9 trillion and the reason is

they don't want to lose their seat you can't piss off the head honcho top dog big cheese if anything changes will let you know with the Dow only down 100 today they started getting the best stuff

I don't know how this market can take much higher rates from here I am stunned about what it did today. Other news? Eh, you know, the right is on abortion, pro-life, and the left is pro-life, and the left is pro-choice, and they're cursing each other out, and they're cursing out DeSantis because he moved migrants to another state, and they're yelling at each other, and one's a bastard, and the other's a bastard, and then they go into the back rooms, and they continue to

laugh that you know what's off at us. Just remember. I really do believe they curse themselves out in front of the camera and just laugh at us behind the camera. It's quite stunning. And Russia, Ukraine, I think Putin is real vulnerable here. I'm no, you know, Norman Schwarzkopf, but I think give it three, six months. He ain't lasting. He's destroyed his economy. He's destroyed his military. He's destroyed the psyche there. I don't know if you've seen Iran. The people are up in arms against Iran.

Risking life and limb. I don't know if you know this before the Islamic, whatever, many years ago. It used to be a normal world. And then they let these maggots take over. So there's a bunch of stuff going on geopolitically. And we're keeping a watch on it. We're keeping a big time watch on it. And there's a simple reason for it.

Some of it matters, especially commodity-wise. Commodities have moderated big time. That's good news. Let's hope that continues. I'll be doing the show tomorrow from New York City. I'll be on with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business Network sometime between 12 and 2. Check me out. I'll be whining complaining about something.

And until tomorrow, you have a great evening and drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Take care, everybody.

Really appreciate you listening. Hope we've been of help. Good night. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

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