Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Less That Meets The Eye

Episode Date: June 29, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday. I think it's June 29th.

2022. Hope you having a good day. This show is emanating from Dubrovnik, Croatia. And may I state for the record, recommend it highly. It's a place I've been wanting to go to for quite a while and have not been able to get here. And finally, I did. I was supposed to be here. I don't know a while back before COVID on a cruise and they couldn't land or dock because of what I don't know what the heck happened. But finally, and I got to tell you, we did this, the old city today, wow, man, oh man. And the place was hopping. It's good to see. And I spoke to some of the owners of some of the establishments and they were telling me about how it was during COVID and how much was lost. And they're just so happy that they're back in business and things are going pretty darn well.

Anyway, so we are here emanating from Dubrovnik. It is 10 p.m. here in Dubrovnik, six hours after you in Florida, nine hours after you in California, IA, and of course, wherever around the world. And we appreciate you being here. We appreciate you listening. This is serious talk on you, your money, the markets, your job, the economy, the whole works with a little comedy injected. but as you know in quite a few months, very tough to do a lot of comedy. Why?

It is no joke. It is no joke on how much money has been lost by the masses. And we don't pull any punches on it when we know people's wealth has been destroyed in many areas of the market. The stable coin, the what did it drop to nothing overnight? Reading stories about people put their life savings in a freaking coin. The meme stocks, you know, nobody's talking about them anymore. They're dead. The marijuana stocks, the 3D stocks, the SPACs, nobody's talking about them anymore.

They're dead. And so many things, they're not down. 50%, they're down 70, 80, 90. And people have come to the realization, they ain't coming back. It was a bubble. And unfortunately, and let me state up front, I hope I'm wrong.

But these coins are not coming back. And we've been right about it. Now, we do believe that probably Bitcoin, Ethereum, will be around but this talk of 100,000 and 250,000 million, these people are lying to you. They're full of crap. And of course, little did he, we know, 19,000 plus coins were brought out. You know what that meant?

Every one of those coins were brought out in hoping, ooh, to be the next big coin. One of them brought out that dogy coin. It went from, they brought it out as a joke. went from zero to 70 cents. I think it's five or six cents now. We're wondering why it's still there. I know you're being touted. I watch the micro strategy CEO on TV.

His stock is down 90% and he talked, yeah, you know, think long term. Don't worry. It's good. Imagine you being down 90% if you bought at the highs and you're being told by the CEO, just think long term, knowing it has to go up tenfold to just get your money back. Let's say you bought it halfway from the highs. You're still down 70%, 650 down to 170, 1734, 68, yeah, about 70. Yet the guy's on TV.

Think long term. So please let this be a lesson to you. I never want this ever to happen to anybody we're in contact with. And unfortunately, on a daily basis, we're hearing from many more of you that are unfortunately in the soup. And you know what part of the web you're in. It's the one where you say, screw it, I don't care if it goes to zero. That's what's happened.

People are down so far. you get into the web you're down 25 okay well we're going to be good they told me they've had the bare market before it'll come back and then it's down 50 and you're a little P-Oed but they're still telling you hey we've had 80%

drops don't worry and then you're down 75% and the reality starts to set in that these people are stuck like you yet they're the ones on TV and touting you let me promise you They're going to the bathroom 12 times a day. They're constipated.

Their smiles are fake. They're touting to you to own these things and don't sell. You can't sell here. What have I told you? If a doctor you went to for your broken right arm puts a cast on your left arm, are you ever going to go back to him? Well, that's what I equate a lot of these people to. So we're going to keep talking about these things.

things a lot because we want you to remember this. We've told you to read the book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. We highlighted these bubbles before they popped. It was a gimmy. We use the same verbiage, the same terminology every time. There's nothing to back these things except the next guy paying a higher price. And just start asking yourself questions. And unfortunately, a lot of people made them mainstream. You know why? They were going up in price. They lost their minds. They forgot reality of markets.

There must be something behind it. There must be something of substance or else. We told you in bare markets, any company that loses money, the stocks getting destroyed. Those stocks got destroyed. We told you companies with no sales doubly destroyed. They've been doubly destroyed. And it doesn't matter what they do. what they say. Now analysts, those people that because these things are up in price,

kept raising targets and now lowering their targets massively. I've seen $200 targets dropped to $30 in the last couple of months. That's how bad these people have been. And that's part of the motto. You get no help from Wall Street in bare markets. So a few things of note. many months back in the October November period of last year. Markets were already in trouble. Growth stocks were getting slammed. All the bubbles had been popping. And something happened in October, November period.

And that was NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 hitting new yearly highs, but 500 stocks were new yearly lows on a Friday. On Monday, it top. Now let's think about that. How is it possible the index, is it new yearly highs, but 500 stocks are at new yearly lows? Well, we explain to you late stage. Money de-ricks come out of the risky and it'll find itself in the biggest gargantuan, liquid names possible to hide in, park in. and at the time it was the apples and a bunch of other mega caps in tech land that kept the indices afloat

but as we told you how things work that's only for the time being and eventually they get everything as gravity takes over meaning there's too much weakness and the last vestiges of strength gets sold off that's what happened in the bare market while we've been going to and through it every time we've rallied up. I've said basically the same stuff to you. The internals are terrible. Hey, the market was up 150 today on the bounce, but new yearly lows picked up. Wait a minute. Hold on. The market's rallying, but new yearly lows are picking up. The indices are not at new yearly lows, but new yearly lows are picking up. Oops, bad indication. Up next.

The time being. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs. All to assist you in achieving your financial needs. financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbaum Capital Management.

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What having it all tastes like. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge.

The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So let's take the temperature. So recently the Dow rallied up 1,500, 1,600 points. We warned you. The only reason we're rallying up 1,500, 1,600 points is because we just dropped 3,600 Dow points.

We use them the Dow. Because that usually doesn't do as bad in bare markets. And we just said to you, We're open to anything. Nothing's 100%. But this looks like, feels like, tastes like a countertrend bear market rally. We're open to anything. And then yesterday happens. We're up 400 immediately, up over 100 NASDAQ. I think we finished down almost 500. NASDAQ, what was the NASDAQ down? 280 or something like that. Whatever it was. It was bad. It was a big gigantic reversal on a big gigantic gap opening and a rush into the market on the open. And very often, bear market rallies will end with a huff and a puff.

But I have to tell you something. That was apparent. Yesterday's action showed itself, didn't hide. Today, different. And I will tell you that the NASDAQ underperformed all day. I will tell you with five minutes to go, the NASDAQ was down 35, was worse. I will tell you that the Dow was up 200 at one time today, and five minutes ago was only up 30. But then they rallied it up.

And I will tell you about 359 your time, Dow was up 120 something, NASDAQ was up, and then the mid and a half, we finished. You ready? the market wrap is brought to you by Investment dash models.com that's your marlbac, one of the great market timers. No gray errors with the man you're either in or out of the market was proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment dash models.com. Listen carefully. The Dow was up 82. In the Dow today, this United Health was up another seven. Now, yesterday was up 11, finished only up one because the market got trashed, but there's a move of foot here.

They're getting paid by the government. It was more than expected. So we're just letting you. You know, the managed care stocks are still acting well. ELV, which used to be A&M, up 12 today. Humana up seven. That's almost breaking out. M-O-H up nine and United Health up seven.

Ports in the storm for right now. Also in the doubt a Goldman Sachs got upgraded. I think it was up seven, finished only up three. Home Depot was up three. McDonald's was upgraded up five. Microsoft was up three and change. V's up one. On the downside, Tatapillar, down four, Chevron down three.

American Express down almost me. By the way, Apple was up one and three quarters. S&P was down two with the Dow up 82. The NASDAQ was down three. NASDAQ 100 was up 20. The semiconductors had no friends today. Finished down 58 today. Bad day.

Transport's down 58. That doesn't bother me. Russell 2000 was down the equivalent of 320 Dow points with the Dow up 82. One can say that bothers. Guess what really bothers me. With the Dow up 82, there were 1,400 stocks up on the New York today.

Exchange. 2,700 on the downside. Almost 2 to 1 negative advanced declines with the Dow up 82. Negative divergence. The NASDAQ, only down 3,000. NASDAQ 100 was up 20. Advanced declines on the NASDAQ, 1557 up, 2720 down.

That's bad enough. Because what does that tell you? Market was buying some of the mega caps today. In fact, right out of the box, little Apple, little Amazon, little Google, little Facebook was even up. Microsoft. None of that bothers me. You know what bothers me today? New Yearly Lows with not one major index at New Yearly Lows.

In fact, pretty decently above the recent New Yearly Lows. New Yearly Lows today really picked up. Individual stocks breaking into New Yearly Low Ground while the indices haven't. Why do we bring that up to you? Because that's exactly what presaged. recent ugliness over the bare market. Now, tomorrow's another day. Maybe we can get improvement.

We're just letting you know with the Dow up 82, the S&P hardly down, the NASDAQ, hardly down, and the NASDAQ 100 up 20. It was a crappy day. The Dow could have been down 300 for all we know. My screens are beat red, except a select few. You know what was green today? Some of the medical stuff.

Medical. Biotech. Some of the consumer staples. Some of the mega cap tech. That's about it. That's how rough it was today. So less than meets the eye today. A sore thumb today.

Let's see what the next week brings. Keep in mind we're window dressing time. What is window dressing? Well, it's illegal. It's not supposed to happen. It's when the big institution starts buying things. things to prop things up at the end of the quarter when statements go out. I'm not exactly worried about the rest of this week. It's going to be interesting what happens going into next

week. We'll see. Nevertheless, yesterday was a bad day. Today was not a good day. And if things worsen, remember today, not yesterday. Today is when New Yearly lows really started to expand Markedly, we had 502 New Yearly Lows on just the New York on the NASDAQ. I think yesterday was maybe 200. So while a lot of people are out there telling you the

Dow and the S&P and the NASDAQ and oh, you know, it wasn't so bad today and all right, great, yeah, fine, we're giving you the innards, the things that really matter. That's the work we put in on vacation.

as we tell you, we bring all of our screens with us. They travel very easily. And we do not, we make sure we do not miss a beat on vacation. I guess you can call it whenever I'm on vacation. It is a working vacation. And that's okay with me because I enjoy it. So that's the story of today. Wish I had better news.

You know what I would rather have today? The Dow down 200 and advanced declines 2 to 1 to the positive and new yearly highs pick up with the Dow down 200. Up next. What else? There's more. This is the one only investors edge. If you've been following the news,

you know the world is dealing with a level of uncertainty that isn't going away anytime soon. Inflation pressures, global tensions, and the highest U.S. debt levels on record continue to influence markets day after day, and the result is familiar to anyone checking their retirement balances or savings accounts. Volatility has become the norm. In times like these, people often look for ways to strengthen their financial foundation. Physical gold and silver have served that purpose throughout history.

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text iHeart to 505.05. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Don't wait. Text eye heart to 50505. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology

delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections, like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers grilled chicken and broccoli alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy Choice Simply steamers. What having it all tastes like. With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places. Like this valley, where the echo does different voices. Hello! We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. We're listening to.

America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. you know we're really careful with our words here you know that we do not script the show but through the years we have learned to be careful with our words and we know every every now and then we use some interesting words that we probably shouldn't use but sometimes you really have to throw them in because we don't use them often and just to make some impact to make you know how important, sometimes, I know, I know, I know, doesn't make us better people, but also the way we explain things and who we rip on. Remember, we have a real simple motto. I have never

been more optimistic on us. I have never been more pessimistic on them. You know who them are. the leaders of this country both parties suck all working for their next re-election every one of them our central bank sucks they couldn't pick the winner

of a one horse race I say this with no joy so we worry those that have listened to this show no, we curry favor with nobody. We have no interest except for what's right and what is the benefit to the masses. What they have done with our debt, our debt and our deficits is a criminal act that is not on the books, so they will never, ever get in trouble. Our central bankers were committing what is illegal insider trading that would be a felony on us and put us in jail

and is not even an ethics violation for them, not even a slap on the hand. But it was so bad, three of them resigned and retired. And we'll probably be teaching at a major college and get quarter million dollars for speeches. I cannot begin to tell you how much this nauseates the living heck out of me. Look what we're hearing about our last president and the things he has done. Some of them true, some of them not true. We're finding out, but leave no doubt. He was neck deep in January 6. But besides that, more of an impact, six to $7 trillion of new debt under his watch, the conservative Donald Trump, who said, easy to lower the debt and deficits, until he entered Washington and realized it's their mother's milk.

And now you have Joe Biden, who won the presidency on default based on Donald Trump not recognizing, hey, when you're in the election, you need to be a little bit nicer. You know, if you're at a bar and you're cursing everybody out, nobody's going to join in with you. But if you had a bar and you got a big smile on your face and you're treating everybody the same, whether it's fake or not, well, maybe they're going to join you. Mr. Trump forgot that. And now Joe Biden, nightmarish, Marxist, control freak, the opposite of everything logical. Do you know? he was just at the G7 meeting

group of seven and they're talking about Russia and gas and oil prices and climate change and all the things that they're supposed to talk about and on a hot mic get this you have the president of France

Macron telling Joe Biden who had no idea because he's going to Saudi Arabia to talk Saudi Arabia into producing more oil. Oops, they're at capacity on production. They can hardly produce anymore. And our president is learning it on the fly, on a hot mic. And I'm thinking to myself, A, is he a moron or what?

and B, is his economic advisors even a bigger morons. How did they not know this and how are they not telling them this when I knew it? Me, doofus idiot me, knew that they were capacity in Saudi Arabia. So we worry. And then today, another day, where these central bankers who could not find Mount Everest that was standing in front of them, not shutting them, not shutting them. up again. But I don't need to go over everything they said. I need to just tell you one thing that was said by the head honcho, dop dog big cheese. And again, just adds to my worries

that we have been so right about. Jay Powell, the most important man on this earth. and I quote we understand better how little we know about inflation I'm stunned I'm weeping for all of us first off and I blame the media

he caused the inflation he lit the fire and for some reason all blame has bypassed him politically first because you just blame the president one side but it's Jay Powell, printing to $9 trillion, getting Europe to do the same.

Europe in negative rates, J. Powell's 0% rates. And we get inflation. I'm yelling and screaming about it. Me, I don't have the statistics they have. While they're telling us, nah, it's not here. When it hits, they tell us it's transitory. When they realize it's not transitory, they sit there picking their nose. and then finally start acting.

And now we're saying to us how little we know about inflation? What? I predicted it 18 to 24 months ago. The head of the central bank is saying how little we know about inflation. My are we so screwed. This all really worries me.

You know what else they said today? Jay Powell, we're going to get inflation down. And we're going to do it without going into a recession. We're not 100% sure, but that's our thought process. We're going to get inflation down. What have I said to you, playing God with the economy and markets, thinking you're a god that you can control a $20 trillion economy? And you are the cause of inflation, but now you're going to cure it. So I worry.

And everything we're saying to you here, there's no opinion. Everything we're saying is all facts. It's all big worries. The people running this country don't have a clue. Don't know what they're doing. And man, oh man, this president is not on the ball. I'm not talking dementia. He just has no clue about the economy and how it works and is a control freak.

That means higher taxes, more regulations, fees, fines, mandates, rules, oversight. And we're going to keep watching for us and for you. But the head of our central bank today said, how little we know about inflation. I know inflation. He caused it. And he's still behind the curve. Now, there was a bit of good news today on what I call the fundamental. front. We've talked about it before. We have to talk about it again, because for now, a bit of good

news. That's up next on this, the one only investors' edge. The world isn't getting any calmer. Economic instability, global conflicts, and record national debt have created an environment where financial uncertainty is a part of everyday life. And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts and savings harder than ever, leaving many Americans wondering how to protect what they've built. That's why people are exploring physical gold and silver as a part of a broader strategy. These are tangible assets with a long history of being used when confidence in traditional markets waivers. They're not a promise of returns and they're not a replacement for existing

investments. They're simply another tool to help diversify our portfolio. Preserve gold provides clear educational guidance to help you understand how precious metals can play a role in long-term planning, including options for holding them in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Simply text IHeart to 50505. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong.

Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers grilled chicken and broccoli Alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy Choice Simply Steamers. What having it all tastes like. With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places, like this valley where the Echo does different voices.

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Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So, let me repeat. For a Dow up 82, NASDAQ only down three, NASDAQ 100 up 20, terrible negative divergent day.

Terrible. one of those divergent days we have warned you about. Simple as that. Remember, it's not just what the Dow and the SP and although do. It's what's going on underneath the surface. And when we see these big divergences, imagine again, new yearly lows picking up in a big way today with the Dow up 82 and the indices pretty,

pretty decently above the recent lows. That means more and more stocks are weakening under the surface. Tomorrow be another day. Remember, two more days end of quarter. But of course, window dressing is illegal, so it does not happen. So what's the good news? Just fundamentally, a couple things. Number one, oil prices down two and change today.

this is going to be necessary. We're still at 109, better than 111. And yields on the 10-year down more than a stick today to 3.09. Two very important occurrences. The worries, it's presaging recession or pretty good recession, which I think we're pretty right about there. But that doesn't matter. You know what Reagan said.

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job And we hope that doesn't happen to any of you We gather at the pump From the highs Will be down about 10% At the pump in the next week If it stays down

Of course if oil prices just Rally back up That's another story So those at least are two good things other things I am seeing just want to let you know inventories of housing are now really

start not necessarily everywhere but a lot of place is skyrocket all you have to do is go online go to realtor.com or redfin or Trulia and put in your neighborhood

or your city and see as I said to you where I live and I look the higher end because that's where the biggest moves have been. Where I live, no less than two months ago, about two months ago now, there was one house for sale above a million. It's in the 50s now. There's another area that I look at in central Florida. I'm counting a couple of hundred for sale above a mill. And amazingly, they show, in these websites, price movement. A lot of homes are being marked down in price now.

That is part of the process of when there's no buyers and more and more inventory shows up, first person is going to move. Charge them 1-2, we're going to 1-1. If they go to 1-1, the person that has another house that's equivalent at 1-2, they're going to have to follow or they're never going to sell. And that's when you start turning the corner to the downside. I will flat out tell you how bad it gets, how far it goes, I don't know, but quite often, in the Eiffel Tower moves to the upside, you'll get the Eiffel Tower move to the downside with no stop in between. That's what happened in 08, if you do recall. So we'll keep our ear to the ground on that. We look at 15 to 20 areas around the country, a couple of times a week. But leave no doubt.

the heady days of people jumping over each other paying a higher price, pretty much has come to an end. We're going to end, we're going to go towards a buyer's market when it was the greatest seller's market we have seen. I think it was better than 08, 07 leading up to that disaster. We're not going to tell you what to do. We'll just let you know what we're saying. Yeah, I've been getting some emails.

Gary, you think I should now hold off on buying a house. Of course I'm not going to answer that question. Because a home is a place you live and circumstances surround decision-making. So just another little thing we're watching. But as I said earlier, and I can't overemphasize enough. These people run in the show.

Seriously. I say this with no joy. I say this with no sarcasm. I wouldn't let him run. lemonade stand. And I mean that. The things I'm hearing out of them, the statements they are making, they're going to crash to crash. They really have no idea what's happening. They've been saying the financial systems working just fine while junk bonds have crashed, bubbles have popped, people have lost 90% of their money, crypto coins are going to zero overnight,

Yields go from one to three in months. And they're saying the financial system is just fine. They do a stress test on the banks and say everybody's passed. Is this what we're supposed to believe? The central bank that's gone zero for a hundred is doing stress tests on banks, who are their best buddies tied to the hip? You know, that's the Federal Reserve that was really moving the needle on us having to bail out these banks back in They're at it again.

Tomorrow's another day. I have no clue what the market does. All I know is I did not like the action today, and we do not want to see another couple of days, regardless of the indices of new yearly lows picking up. You have a great evening drive carefully, hopefully better news to come. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family and hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. again from Dubrovnik, Croatia. This has been the one and only Investor's Edge. We'll be back tomorrow. Peace out, all. Thanks for joining us. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Kaltbaum on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota trucks. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

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