Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Lessons [01.22.2026]

Episode Date: January 22, 2026

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If you're 45 or older and at average risk, ask your doctor about the Colagard test, available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks to being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Thursday, January 22nd, 2006. We are here in New York City where it is going to get cold. I left Florida, and I left. and I hear tomorrow we're going to be like eight.

Eight. Not 18. Eight. And I think they then say, well, it feels like minus five. The things I do, I left Florida was like 75. Okay, doke. Anyway, hope you're having a good day. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.

We'll do the markets, the economy, your job is. your industry. The Morlocks in DC, and boy, there's a lot of more locking going on. And if you want to know what Morlocks is, just look it up. We'll post this show at garyk.com also on our X feed.

They won't follow us on X. You should. If you'd like to email me, just be nice. Oh, and by the way, we'll post it on the TV YouTube channel. Oh, and by the way, any day now we will have our own YouTube channel and studio setting up.

you'll be able to see my mug. Ladies and gentlemen, we do this every now and then. We blast ourselves. Yes, this is the lessons show, or at least part, the Mia Culpa show, because there's something that happened, something that occurred, something that we said to you on this radio show, and we were 100% right.

a thousand percent right but you know what Stanley Drucken Miller says learned from George Soros you can be right all you want but if you don't have huge positions doesn't matter

if you don't stick with it don't matter it ends up being on the minor side so lessen time Mea Culper time. And we made money on this and we're still going to me a culpa. Because I have to tell you, coming under the heading of you never know, but follow the roadmap and more than likely will not lead you astray. How do we know that? Because we have thumbed our way through. tens of thousands of charts of bull and bare markets. And you know what happens? We get in our own way. I got in my own way and we're talking about something we made cheese on. That's how tough we are on ourselves. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll do the market,

today's market on the back end today oh wait after we finished the early radio show yesterday the president did his taco and blew off the tariffs that he threatened to put on all of europe and i need you to know what i'm going to do short shrift there's no deal there's no nothing everything that is being told to you by this administration now on what's going on with Greenland has already been going on. There's no taking over Greenland,

there's no running over Greenland. We've always had the ability to add military in Greenland. That's what we're going to do. Me, the jury's still out. It was a matter of the market dropped to 850 points and they crapped in their pants again.

They didn't want another 10% drop like they had in April. You don't believe me? That's okay. We still love you. Hopefully you still love us. Back. Oh, one more thing.

Go search on Google right now. If there are any trade deals with China, India, and Europe. China and Europe won two behind us in size. India is pretty good. We did a definitive trade deal with Saudi Arabia, very small. We have a quasi trade deal with Japan. We never got one with China, Europe, or India. Another framework.

It's now a joke. But I digress. The good news is, maybe we'll see. Maybe he's done with tariffs. I don't know. Anyway, lessons. So do you recall it was the month of March, 2024?

You see, in that month, gold broke out of, we'll call it from August of 20 to March of 24, range bent, except you really can go back to 2011. The GLD representing gold prices hit 185 and backed off and did a big saucer for about 10 years, got back up around 185, actually hit a high of 194 but close that month at 184, got up to 193 in 22, but closed that month at 180. Close the May month of 23 at 182.

We're talking 13-year range with a higher low. And you know, we came on this show and told you that in March of 24, And particularly March 1st and 2nd, gold had a major 13-year breakout. And usually decade or more breakouts are going to be really meaningful. We said that to you. We bought. We also bought about a month later because it went up for a few straight days. made a right turn, put in a flag, and we bought on that flag.

Handled it beautifully. Beautifully. Since then, gold is up. Let's call it 190 to 450 from March of 24. What is that? Two years almost? 22 months. Only one problem.

in June of 24, gold broke the 50 day and we sold offensively, even though we were very well up, and it held just underneath. And then we bought the breakout again, but at higher prices in August of 24. And we made some hay, but we also traded that too. It broke the 50 day in November of 24, and we got worried. even though we had lots of cushion and we didn't give it a chance. Into 25, it put in a new range between 236 and let's call it 257. And then broke out in late January of 258 at about 258.

I don't think I bought that breakout. out that 258 took you up to 290 and that had a nasty pullback but held the 50 day and then rallied up without us to the best of my recollection the 318 that was in May end of April 25 here's where it gets interesting for the next 12 weeks gold pretty much held in a range. Little drops below the 50 day, but always held. Up next. September of 25 on gold.

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So I want you to notice gold went from a big breakout of 190 and in August of 25 was trading between let's call it 300 to 318 with one pull back underneath but never really break below the 50. We bought it on the breakout. We bought it beautifully. Beautifully. And we wrote it up. beautifully.

But you know what we did? We didn't have big position. And we watched it go from 317 up to 403. What a move in a matter of one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, seven weeks. And then the harsh pullback.

We sold. Very satisfied. With that move, but you know what happened next? You had a good 15% pullback, but the reason for the 15% pullback was because it got so extended. You know what it didn't do? It never broke the 50-day moving average,

so guess what we did? After the pullback on the first move up, we bought. You know what happened days later? It gapped down. We sold. Minor league. I think we lost a percent or two. You know what we didn't do?

We watched it stay above the 50 day, build a couple of stair steps, and weeks later, mid-December, break out above that 403 level. You know why we were happy about that? Because it went to 418, And on 1229, it dropped on a gap from 418 to 395.

And I'm thinking, who, could sell, but never broke the 50 day. Guess what happens next? Oh, it breaks out again. And ooh, it's 452 today. So that breakout at 318 is now 452, almost 502% since early symptoms. September, we did not make 50% because traded. And it never broke the 50-day moving average, the thing we talk about all the time. I was worried that it got so extended and you dropped from 400 to 360 in five days.

It's a big drop. But we didn't, we got back in and stopped out and did not get back in. again. But what's the bigger moral of the story? One of the widest, biggest gargantuan breakouts in gold miners that occurred in March of 24. I did not listen to myself and what I said that more than a 13-year breakout has got to be meaningful. A 13-year breakout, a 13-year breakout, a 13, year. On top of that, the gold miners in August of 25 broke out before the medal. And what do we tell you? When the miners are outperforming the medal, it's usually bullish. So we were happy. We bought. Didn't hold. So as we always do, everything I'm telling you right now, we're going to be

writing down in our notes. We made money on it. We mishandled it. It's not good enough to see a monstrous, monstrous move. By the way, the big breakout in gold miners was up, it was $67 bucks. The old high was September 2011. It broke that just in September. and has gone from 67 to 105. Big bull market in gold and gold miners. And of course, silver going along for the ride. Silver did not break out of all-time highs of 11, but I will tell you on 6.30, that month, this June,

it broke out at 34 bucks. Not the all time, but good enough. It's 87. Just since June. And you had the template. You had the template. We didn't play the silver. So this will go down in our archives.

And when we see major, major breakouts, years, you know what's looking like it right now? the emerging markets exchange traded fund the e e m go look at a monthly chart going back to 07 doesn't mean it works may not break out it's right there emerging markets have lagged big time it's right there so today was a little post-mortem little bit of lesson time. I'm not demoralized. We made money. And I'm never demoralized when I am constantly learning about the things I have done right and wrong in the markets. But this one goes to the head of my class on me.

Remember, we don't take on anybody. in our industry. We don't put anybody down. We only compliment. We stopped that ages ago. Remember? We used the blast that got certain guys on a certain network until I got an email from a very nice man and said, it doesn't show up right, Gary, if you're putting down somebody else. And I thought about it, and I listened back to myself and I said, he's right. Tough enough business. So we just critique ourselves. Up next. More on this. The market. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com. for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges world. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole. process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere

people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And walk once again to Investors Edge. And in case you don't know, we have these day minders, the big ones that we write in on the things we see and the things we do when we do. do right, we write it in when we do wrong. We throw F bombs at ourselves. Why?

If you are not introspective on your life, how do you fix things? How do you enhance the good stuff? Anyway, just letting you know. Today, that was up 300. S&P was up 500. Then it was up 180, back to 300. S&PF 37, NASDAQ 211, NASDAQ 111, NASDAQ,

I will tell you there was some selling today in semiconductors and some AI and stuff, but not a biggie. I noticed Sandus was down 38 bucks early. It actually finished up today. What can I tell you? A few things of note, Bitcoin still no umph. Still no good. Stay away.

And I noticed amazingly, I got to tell you, I don't know, may be careful here, we're not naming names. We're interviewing somebody who called for 150,000 Bitcoin two months ago at the end of the year, and then said end of January. That just pisses me off. Just letting you know. It's still in a bare phase. What else?

Small caps, midcaps, rested a little bit, was up better, came back. back. No worries. Gold and silver. You think they're going to pull back up again today? Open kind of nothing and just rallied. Being extended, don't matter. Boom. I've already gotten a bunch emails. What's going on with this? Let me explain. Before Tuesday, when Trump put out his BS tariffs, And we might as well just call them BS tariffs. Market got hit for 850. NASDAQ 550. You know where we stand now?

For the week, is it possible the Dow's up 259 points? Can't be. No, that's not the week. Downs up 24 points on the week after being down 850. The S&P 500 is down 26 points, 0.38%. percent, the NASDAQ, still down 0.34%. But the Russell is up 1.5%. And the mid caps up, excuse me, 0.43%.

And the Russell is up, yeah, 1.5%. My bad. So Tuesday is just about a memory. And I'm trying to get, we know the modus operandi now. He's full of crap. on the tariffs, but we don't know how long he's going to stay full of crap on the tariffs. That's the problem. Would have the market kept going lower if he still kept the tariffs on and did not take him off yesterday?

These are questions we're asking ourselves, but we really have no answer because it's unknown. Anyway, we thought the market before Tuesday wanted to go higher. now that the tariffs are gone, a good couple of days. Overbought near term, little froth, a bunch of complacency. Maybe we pull back a little bit here. Don't know. But technical condition, pretty darn good. Vance declines, pretty darn good.

New highs, pretty darn good. Last was first today. What are we been complaining about? The Lag 7. It's eighth, but Google's been strong. Tesla was up 19 today on no news. And back above the 50 day. I had to move that on my screen.

It goes to the maybe. Even Dead Oracle up for. Meta, up 34 in an upgrade today. Still way down. Microsoft up 7. That's been trashed recently. Salesforce.com up 6, Amazon up 3. Apple can't get going, though in Broadcom was down.

Netflix was also down again, amazingly so. Dead money on that stock. But as I look at my screens, gold, silver. Mixed day for the financials, but some still finished up. They were mostly strong early. So they pulled back a little bit. I could see they brought in housing. Retail got hit to a certain extent.

Not a biggie. and in the down strength American Express bounces that's that weakness recently on the 10% credit card thing

by the way you know what a couple credit card companies announced well we're not changing our credit cards maybe we'll add a couple of 10% credit cards not a bad idea not a bad idea mentioned

Microsoft there's a Travelers bounce up five, United Health up six. They have been weaker. I mentioned Salesforce. Anyway, and really not much down. Sherwin Williams was down, Home Depot down, IBM down. And as we said to you, the housing-housing-related didn't have a great day. But not much else to say.

The big indices remain just range. Just so you know, the S&P, this second, is sitting right where it was. October. Three months. No game. Nasdaq. Three months. And you can actually go back. Yeah, three months. No gain. A little back above the 50. And by the way, a lower high. And by the way, we think had everything to do with the very weak lag seven. But as I'm looking to my left again, that freaking gold silver. And as we started the show, lesson time. lesson time I don't care what age keep learning moi importante never stop learning

never stop moving foot forward lessons bond market flat today as we said bitcoin may nothing happen in there and there's a little bit of a story I talk Trump

I got to talk the communist state of California. I have friends that live in California. How to bring this up. Population is huge. The GDP of California, I believe, is like bigger than a lot of countries. And what I've been saying for a long time is, I'm amazed the voters continue to vote the same people that have no respect for them. Never understood that. The New York. city new mayor wants to raise taxes to the highs who's the highest closest new Jersey so he wants them there complete disrespect for the taxpayer who will move California wants to do a wealth tax of 5% if you're a billionaire how

dare you become a billionaire we're gonna take 5% by the way I think that's yearly not one time and remember when they start something it never ends Gavin Newsom will be the frontrunner come 28 because the world is insane. The abuse of the taxpayer there is beyond the beyond. The disrespect and the using of the people and businesses there. It should take a nothing to run that place if you just leave it alone. But no. Up next, some tidbits about it.

This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. They're zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to... What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In The Gester's Edge with Gary Culpa. So we bring up California. Because I got friends there and they're always telling me things. I just got to, I've always have been weirded out. How do I pay three bucks for gas in Florida? But if I go to California, I see signs for $6. How is that possible? Well, here you go.

Drivers in California pay approximately 90 cents to $1.30 in combined state, local, and federal taxes, fees, and environmental program costs. That's for starters. They also have a cap and trade program and a low carbon fuel standard, whatever the hell that means. 54 cents a gallon in compliance costs. They also have this a fuel formula, a special cleaner burning blend of gasoline known as carb gasoline, which is mandated.

This is more expensive to produce and specialized refining. With few refineries outside the state, to produce declining refining capacity the number of finities in California's decreased from over 40 in the 80s to 11 there's planned closures of additional refineries such as the Phillips 66 in LA which reduces further capacity and are you ready for this a mystery surcharge believe it or not Californians call this a mystery surcharge, but they never yell and scream and curse about it.

It is averaged 30 to 40 cents a gallon, and they cannot directly explain by taxes or environmental regulations. Somebody writes, this suggests that other factors such as higher operational course, limited competition among retail stations and higher profit margins. I don't even know what to say. They hate their citizens. They really do. And then I sit here and I go search California state income taxes 12.3% high end. plus you ready a 1% mental health surcharge for income over what the hell is that so 13.3% plus 37% federally you are working until the month of July if you live in California and God forbid you are a success story based on

your earnings. Stunning. Stunning. And then of course the gas tax. Oh, that's right. What about the other fees? Go search the other California. It is an encyclopedia fees and a list of government entities in California that you can put in an encyclopedia fees.

They have created so many oversight businesses that the taxpayer pays for with a ton of overreach and a ton of overlap. This guy is going to be the number one running for presidency. Now, you know, I'm no fan of this guy. he's no conservative he's a neocon he complained about neocons for how long but man oh man California with the highest taxes in the country running massive deficits Florida with no state tax surplus one would think they would get it But no. And the reason is they keep being voted in. I can promise you if these high taxers hear from the citizenry, we're not paying this crap anymore and we ain't voting for you. There would be a move afoot. I just had to bring this up because I saw the sign. Somebody posted it. Six dollars in California. I just paid 310 in Florida. By the way, for the middle gas, not for the lower gas. It really does

matter what state you do live in as far as wealth. And by the way, the cost of living in California is obscene. Oh, and by the way, a lot of celebrities are leaving. Oh, by the way, a lot of businesses are leaving. But I got to tell you, a ton of still there, a ton of people to that because it's a magnificent state. You ever visit it? It's beautiful. But if they keep disrespecting, I got to believe there's going to be a lot bigger migration going forward. We're watching New York City very closely with this guy in.

We'll keep you apprised. And by the way, in Florida, they just keep putting up more buildings, more hospitals, more schools, more stores, you name it, because more people. Hey, that all said, you have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise they will be well. Always appreciate your time until tomorrow. Hey, stay warm out there. Good night.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com. That's Gary K. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your first? Your wallet, terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.