Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Levels To Watch

Episode Date: September 7, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today.

In case you're just joining us or miss any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen live or archive on any device anytime you want, 24-7. So before we dive in, we've got a lot to do. discuss today. This is a show about you and your money, all the fun points in between. You can go to GaryK.com, pause the show, rewind it, listen to it again and again and again. You can follow Gary on Twitter by just pressing the button or follow him on X, now that it's called X. I'm one of those guys where I'll still keep calling at Twitter probably for many years

to come. I still call Facebook, meta Facebook, and I still call Disney Springs, downtown Disney, and so on and so forth. It takes me a while to adjust when they have name changes. And you can also email Gary about his money management services and if you have interest in the premium service that Gary offers you can go to conviction leaders with an s.com and get Gary's update several times a day. You also get daily webcasts where he breaks down the market, shows you charts, shows you what he sees so you could see what he's seeing in real time. And then, of course, as always, you decide. So that's all available at convictionleaders.com. Let's talk about today. The market came in this morning. We had a lot of selling pressure first, you know, right off the bat, some more bad news out of China for Apple saying that their officials can't use the iPhones.

China's a big market for Apple. Apple's a big component, big market cap wise for the U.S. indices, the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, the S&P, and so on and so forth. So that dragged the market down right at the open. That was overnight that news came out and followed through yesterday as well. So that's put some early pressure on. then you had the market Navidia too another big tech AI kind of stock there were some questions about their sales practices and what they do

and whether it's actually kosher or they're playing games or what's happening but a lot of that's rumors it's you know yet to be confirmed and then you also had some pressure from the dollar and you had some pressure from other semiconductors that got hit today with worrying about a trade war with China or what might happen, so on and so forth,

then, of course, interest rates. So you had a confluence of factors that really led to a situation here where you have to pause and ask yourself, okay, what's actually happening, number one, number two, what's actually important? And number three, just because the market opened down, enter any reason you want, What does that mean going forward? And where do we actually close? So, interestingly, the Dow led the market all day today.

And these are notes from Gary's. You never like seeing the Dow leading. A few other things. A select few software stocks. Act well off recent earnings report. We can watch Workday. The ticker symbol is W-D-A-Y. You've got Intuit, I-N-T-U, and you've got Splunk, which is SPL-L-K.

outside of that, oil and oil prices are starting to pull back a little bit here. Watch the 10-year yield. You really don't want to see that breakthrough the highs from October of 2022. I've spoke about that before. Gary's mentioned it many times. I'll touch on it again later today. It's just really important, folks, to put the pieces of the puzzle together. You know, the U.S. dollar, you can look at U.U.P.

It's an ETF that tracks a dollar. again, U as an under, U as an under, P as in P as in P, or Peter or Paul, U-U-P. And you can go back and look on a weekly chart or a monthly chart. It was rallying hard for the end of 21, most of 2022. Coming into this year, it cooled off. It stopped going up, and most of this year it was going down up until a few months ago. And then it started rallying again. The last two months or so, you've got the last seven, almost eight weeks.

now, you're up every single week in a row. If we close up for the dollar this week, it'll be the eighth consecutive weekly gain. Well, in isolation, you know, that's one thing. But when it's the U.S. dollar, the global currency, that impacts many of our trading partners. And it impacts many other currencies. So the euro is down seven weeks in a row

and on track for its eighth weekly close. And that puts pressure on the stock market because of the macro forces are just real simple. The U.S. dollar was up big last year and then yield on interest rates and the 10-year yield specifically, but other interest rates as well were up a lot. Well, all right, both those forces backed off this year. So the first half of this year, you saw a lot of that macro pressure just ease. All right, so far, so good, no big deal, no harm, no foul. Well, what happens?

What happens is in coming to the summer, the stock market got ahead of itself, going to July, got extended, and it started pulling back. No coincidence, just as the dollar and yield started rising again. So if a 10-year yield breaks out above the October 22 high, that's going to be some really worrisome because the potential there to be a headwind for the stock market and drag the market lower increases substantially. And the reason why that's important to understand and put things in perspective, is because when you stop and you think about the market, you say, okay, well, hold on a second. Yields topped out in October of 2022, and that's when the stock market bottomed.

And they've been going down most of this year, for the first half of this year at least. Okay, great. They stopped going down. They started going up, and now they're all the way back up challenging those highs in 2022. But what happens if we break out and take out those highs and go higher and even higher? That could be a big headwin for the stock market and could, really be a concern. So the market, you had a big rally here up until July, and then what happened? In August, you started pulling back. The end of July, really most of the month of August.

You fell in the first two weeks of August, you're out of the last 10 days or so, the second half. Okay, great. Now in September, you're down a little bit. The month just began. So it's a big digestion that's happening to digest this big rally in the market. And if you look at the QQQ where you look at the S&P 500, I'll go through each of these because it's really important to understand where we are and just put things in perspective. If you look at the QQQQ you've got, I'm going to round up here, 388. It's actually 387-98. But you can go look when you have a chance. The high from, the day was that for you, July 19th, 387-98. That was the beginning of the pullback or the beginning of this correction.

Okay, that's a pullback so far. To the low on August 18th, the low there was 354.71. Okay. So 388, I'm going to round down to 354, or the new levels to watch. Really important support at 354 and really big resistance. at 388. That's it. It's literally that simple.

We're range-bound, and we've been range-bound since, the market's just pausing to digest that move. Near-term, you want to see the market get back above the 50 considerably, but really get above September's high. September 1st, the high there was 380, 83. So if we can break above 381 and then 388, that'd be really bullish. Why?

because you cleared a lot of this resistance. And you cleared, that doesn't mean we're going to go hit new all-time highs, just over 400 in the queues. But it really paves away. Think of a game of battle between the Bulls and the Bears, a tug-of-war. And that's what's happening right now. It's a big game of tug-of-war. And we don't know, no one knows with 100% certainty,

who's going to win. The Bulls win or the Bears win? And the good news is you don't have to know with 100% certainty. all you have to do is understand risk, reward, probabilities, possibilities, and make sure you always keep your losses small. And when you're right, let the winners run. Be patient with your winners and be impatient with your losers. So 388 is resistant, just stepping back.

And 354 is support. Everything in between there, it's going to be important if we can get above, like I mentioned earlier, that September high of 381, I'm rounding, that'd be good. And then it's going to set up the, set the stage for us to go approach 388, which is that resistance level. Okay. If not, and we start rolling over, we hit, right now we close at 372-ish and change.

If we start taking out the lows and go to 350, or sorry, 365, 360, and then 355, and then down to 354, that's not going to be good. And by the way, the 50-day moving average is just about in the middle of this big trading range. So it's important to watch the 50. All things being equal above the 50 is good or bullish and below it's not good or somewhat bearish. But it's not the end of the world. You know, I love market history because to me it's precedent and it's understanding the nature and the behavior of the index or the stock you're looking at. So I study market history really carefully.

And if you look back at strong years, you see the market break the 50th a little bit for a few days or a few weeks and then recover. So we're just range bound. But it's a battle and it's not over. This is an infinite game. Keep that in mind as you move forward. Up next, we're going to talk about the S&P. We're going to talk about some sectors and some stocks and some more news. I'm Adam Sarhan.

This is the one and only investors. today. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion. of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum it doesn't get better than this and welcome once again to Investors Edge in case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show I'm Adam Sarhan filling in for Gary Kay you can go to Gary Kaye.com and listen to all the shows archive live at your convenience rewind fast forward pause 100% of your convenience so we left off talking about the NASDAQ 100 having a big trading range and the 50-day moving average being in the middle of that range so I'm paying more to

attention to the high and the low of that range. Again, 388 and 354. The 50 is really important, but understand that you're going to get, it's a chop fest. You're going to get times in the market. When you look at history, it happens. Look at 2017, 2013, some of the strongest years in the market's history. And you'll see the index, the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Dow, live below their 50-day moving average for a few days or a few weeks and then come roaring back to life again. So just because the stock or the index broke the 50 for a day or two or three or four, not the other world. But it's not a good sign. And that's why we look at it. That's why we observe it. That's why we study it. Because historically, it pulls into the 50. It's defended the area, not the exact line to the

penny, but the area. It's a zone. Again, more of an art than an exact science. And then it just rips higher and goes higher. Even now, you broke the 50 for a few weeks. You got right back above it. Okay. No harm, no fail. If we break out and go new highs. So that's the cues. The S&P 500. Let's focus on that one for a second here. You've got a trading range. Same thing. Big rally this year. You hit a high at the end of July of, well, let me give you the exact day. The 27th of July. This is the SPY, the S&P 500. It's an ETF, the SPI, that tracks the S&P 500. So I'm giving you the numbers based in the SPY because that's what we trade. 459-44 was the high in July 27th.

And the low on August 18th was 433.01. So the two levels that I'm watching, I'm going to round here, is 433 and 459. If we can break above 459, that's bullish. If we break down below 433, that's going to be bearish. Near term, you've got the high from September 1st of 453.67. So let's just say 454. So really you want to see, I want to see the SPY close above 454. and then $459 on the upside.

On the downside, the bears want to see it go down and break down below $4.33. Really, it's just that simple. And again, with the SPY, the 50-day moving average is right in the middle of that big trading range. The 50-day moving average today is somewhere in that neighborhood of 446.

Thereabouts. All right. Noted, right? Like Gary says, there you go. That's what we're focusing on. Big trading range. And you're going to have this sloppy, mushy, not a technical term, it's one of my terms, just chop fest, chop city, however you want

a word to continue until either the bulls win and the market gets above 459 or the bears win it gets below 433. Keep that in mind because it's when you trade stocks and you're investing, you know, getting, it's very easy to get, like my friend Andy talks about getting lost in the sauce. It happens to the best of us. Well, you get fixated on just things that are. That can, you know, oh my God, the sales earned, you know, Navidia sales, the last three, the last four quarters were down year over year. But it's not a great growth stock.

It's got to be up double digits every quarter. Meanwhile, the stock is up huge or so on and so forth. You know, price is primary. Price is what shows up on your statement and shows up on my statement. Everything else is secondary in my world. Now, I watch it, I look at it, but it's important to understand it's secondary. So the DAA, the diamonds, this is an ETAF that tracks the Dow. You've got the high of 356-70, so let's just call that 357.

And on the downside, you've got support near 344. So it's 357 and 344. I'm rounding in both cases, which is the August low. 344. And right now we close at 345, below the 50. All right, let's see what happens. And if we can break above that September, or I guess this was August high of 351.28, great. That'd be a good sign.

If not, we're just rangebound. I mean, literally, by definition, we're rangebound in the Dow and the S&P and the NASDAQ. Now, let's look at the small cap, the Russell 2000. This folks is important because it's 2,000 stocks. The S&P is 500, the NASDAQ 100, the Dow's 30. This is 2,000 stocks. you've got the high in July of 198 75. This is, by the way, I'm looking at the I-W-M.

I is an island, W as in water, M as in Mary. All right. High, 198-75. This is a trading range. That's resistance from July. And the low in August, on the 25th of August, was 181. So you've got 198, 75, let's call it 199, in the I-W-M, the Russell 2000 and the downside you've got 181. Why am I giving you these levels? Because it's

important for you to understand that the market's range bound until one of those two levels is broken. Now the Russell is weaker than the Dow, weaker than the S&P, weaker than the QQQ than NASDAQ 100, and it's closer to support. It closed today at 184.38 and we spoke about support at 181. So you only have about three points away. If that cracks open, meaning it takes out, you know, goes below 181, we can easily have another leg down. And the 200-day moving average in the Russell is 183, and we closed at 184-38.

So if we break down below that 181 level, that's going to be bearish. It's not going to be good. I mean, it just paves the way. It's a weight. Think of like an anchor. It's going to pull the market down, most likely. I don't recall a time where the NASDAQ was going straight up

and the Russell's going straight down. Or the S&P is going straight up and the Russell's going straight down. They tend to be somewhat correlated, meaning equities or stocks, the indices that you look at, it's a basket of stocks. So you have 2,000 stocks going down.

You've got 50 or 100 going, you know, they tend to move together. Sometimes NASDAQ outperforms, sometimes the Russell outperforms, no problem. But they're trending in the same direction. That's the important part. And you've got the mid-year.

Caps, same as the Russell. The M.D.Y is a ticker there. You've got a low of 466, 25. So let's use your 466 from August. And you've got a high of 578. So let's go 501 from July. And a big trading range in here with the MDI, the midcaps, we close at 471. And that line in the sand is 466.

And the 200-day moving average is 465. So we're getting dangerously close to support. breaking in the midcaps and the small caps. Less so in the Dow, the S&P, less so, and the Qs are leading this, you know, right now, outperforming on a relative basis. That's the overview of the market. What happens specifically today? I'll tell you.

So what happens? We've got the NASDAQ composite down 123 points, closed in the upper half of the range. off the lows. The S&P 500 closed down 14 points to 4451, and you've got the Dow closed up 57 points to 34,500. The fact that we closed in the upper half of the range is a subtle but somewhat bullish sign. Remember, focus on where it opens versus where it closes. That's all up next. Time flies. We've got a lot more to discuss. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kaye, who's out today. So we spent the first part of the show going over the major indices. We spoke about them in great detail. Gave you a big trading ranges that I'm seeing here in the market. And I gave you very specific points for you to watch,

both from a resistance standpoint, meaning a ceiling, if you're not familiar with the jargon or the lingo, think of a trading range. The market goes sideways or a stock goes sideways for six months between, let's say, 55 and 50. 55 would be resistance. Every time it gets a 55, it pulls back to 50. And 50 would be support.

And then it would bounce again to 55, resistant. And then go down to 50. Now, thereabouts, not to the penny, but thereabouts. And then all of a sudden one day it breaks out above 55 and it does on a very heavy volume. All right? That's a bullish sign. that shows you the big institutions are buying because the individual investors, the small ones,

they don't have enough muscle, enough firepower to send stocks significantly higher, all things being equal. Obviously, when you get a Reddit kind of situation, that's an anomaly. I'm talking about just day to day. It's the big money, folks, the institutions that drive and control the market. And not in a nefarious way whether it's a colluded effort, none of that stuff. It's just, hey, do you have a lot? thunderous volume, monstrous volume. Every day, let's say the stock trades five million shares,

and between 55 and 50, and then all of a sudden you get, I don't know, 20 million shares traded, right? And you blast through 55 and you close at 59 or 60 or something like that. That's what I mean by the big institutions. And that typically is a good sign because these institutions, they buy and they continue buying for a while. They don't just buy for a day and that's it.

For the most part, some of the, you know, for the most part, they're taking positions. it takes them days, if not weeks, to build their positions or months sometimes. So if, you know, until those levels are broken, I have to expect a sideways chop fest to continue. Just mind your stops. Be careful. It's very, very, you know, the environment when you're in a chopping environment, it's very difficult to actively trade it because there's no quote unquote real rhyme or reason for any given day's action. Sometimes you get headlines like with Apple today and yesterday

with China, you know, banning their officials from using it. Okay, that makes sense. But even Apple closed in the upper half of the range. And its support for the last two months or so wasn't broken today. You've got 170-196 on the low end and you've got resistance near 198. The stock closed at 177, upper half of the range and very heavy volume. That shows you the big institutions are in there defending it because you had a lot of sellers in the morning, and by the time you closed, all right, closing the upper half of the range. Everyone who wanted to sell in the last two days probably sold. Now, it could keep going lower, but just for today, like the scorecard is one day at a time. That's all you do in the markets, one day at a time. It's your spectrists. Now, if we break down below 171.96, odds are you're probably going to go lower. Just like a breakout, but in reverse. A breakdown. You break below support.

So let's talk about other areas. The semiconductors, SMH. A lot of these stocks got hit today as well. Navidia came out, again, mentioned earlier in the show, questioned about their sales practices. Navidia, which it's a big AI stock. It fell today, but the 50-day moving average was defended. It closed the upper half of the range.

All right, it closed down about 1.74 percent, down about $8 to $462. 41. All right. No big deal. Semiconductors, a lot of other ones got hit. That's more of a big deal. They closed down 2% of the day, upper half of the range, which was a good sign. They broke the 50-day moving average, the SMH for the first time since, or was it about a week and a half ago. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven trading day. About a week ago, I guess. Calendar, week and a half, trading days about a week, a little over a week. Because there's five trading days in a week, a half. All right. But the big trade. rating range there, even though it broke the 50, the 50 is in the middle of the trading range,

is 161, 17, and 14335. And you close at 151, the SMH, the ETF that tracks semiconductors. So again, you're in the middle of this big base. Eventually, you're going to break out of this above 161, or you're going to break down below support of below 143.35. This chop fest will end. It always does throughout history. Now, it may take a few months or a few weeks or a few days or a few hours. No one knows, a few years.

No one knows how long the sideways chop vessel last. Look, look at GLD when you have a chance, gold. GLD is an ETF that tracks gold on a monthly chart. You've got a beautiful symmetrical cup and handle base. Okay, beautiful. If gold can resolve itself and go higher, this is almost picture perfect. On GLD, you want to see a break above 1903. or 194, 45, even better.

But for the last three years, you've been building this huge base between 194 and 150. And right now you're at 178. But if you can break out above 194, 194 and 45, guess what? It's almost picture perfect. But it's a three-year base

or a three-year handle. Most people aren't around for that amount of time. And the good news is you don't have to. You can just wait. And if it does break out above 194, 194, 193, whatever level you want to use, then all right, you can start buying. If it works, you can buy more. And if it doesn't, you get out for a small loss.

But these big sideways trading ranges, folks, they're part of the business. It's part of the process. Just like at night when you're tired, you go to sleep. It's healthy for you. It rejuvenates you, and then you wake up the next day, you have more energy again. Instead of staying up all night. That's what these bases are. They're digestions, their consolidations.

They're just, they give you, they're healthy, providing the market breaks on and goes up afterwards. And if not, it rolls over, hey, it's a big top. Get out of the way. It's healthy, because we know we can sell it and get out of the way. So either way, it's healthy. It's not fun to have a chop fest or a sideways period or a pullback. Everybody wants, you know, the market to go straight up and stay up all the time, but that's just not reality. You know, pullbacks and sideways consolidations are part of the business. So I used to, you know, not be happy with them, but now I've embraced them. I've embraced them with open arms because it separates the real true market leaders, the strongest of the strong, from the pack.

Most of the stocks don't have what it takes. Most of them roll over and fail. Most of them just, it's a nothing burger, especially in pullbacks, they get walloped. But the true market leaders are the ones that are able to stay up while the market gets hit or pulls back. Look at something like Celsius when you have a chance. CELH. That's a great example of a true market leader. has the earnings, has the growth, has the stock performance,

gaped up in August after reporting earnings, pulled back to 21 day, and just raced higher. Now for every one of these, I can show you 15 or 20 that went the exact opposite way. So just be careful here with the market, but these pullbacks, my point is to stay engaged because it's easy to look away. People are wired to seek pleasure and avoid pain. It's just the way humans are. When the market's going down or sideways, it tends to be, you know, there's not a lot of pleasure there for most people. It tends to be more painful.

Oh, the market's going down. Or it's going sideways. Nothing's happening. So what do people do? They look away. Well, all right. That's almost the exact opposite what you should be doing. Why?

Because the pullback's going to end. That base is going to, you know, the base is forming. The best time to get in is right at the beginning as early as possible in new uptrends. But if you look at the beginning as early as possible, new uptrends. But if you look at the end, that's going to end. away, you miss it, which is human nature. People look away. All right. And then what happens? You rally. You hit new highs. Oh my God, I'm back in. I got to get in. I missed it. Then you get FOMO, fear of missing out. But you did miss out because you looked away.

And then all of a sudden, what happens? You get a pull back after. You get in at that new high or you get in new highs. You chase the performance. And then inevitably, it pulls back, which is normal and healthy. But because you missed, you compounded the error. Because you missed getting in early. You got in late. And then it pulls back, stops you out, or you have losses. Then all of a sudden, and this was a story of my life for years and years and years. I could speak from experience until I realized this. And hold on a second here. What's this character doing?

Forget Adam. I don't matter in the greater scheme of things. Humans, right? Behavior. Okay. Remove the personal blind spot bias. If you read my book, psychological analysis, you'll know what I'm talking about. If not, I can tell you, real fast.

People can't see themselves objectively. You ask 100 newlyweds. the night of their wedding, how many of you think are going to get divorced? No one's going to raise their hand. Yet statistically, we know half of them are getting divorced. That's a personal blind spot bias, right? So as a traitor, part of my evolution was like, oh, okay, hold on a second here. What am I doing?

What are these unconscious behavioral tendencies that are repeating themselves? They're recurring over and over and over again. Mark will pullback. I get upset, but experience pain in some capacity, and look away. And then it would take off and go without me. My goodness. And then I get in, then it happens. pulls back again and then rinse, washer, over and over until I started realizing. Hold on a second.

Let me pay attention when it pulls back. Let me do the work. Let me separate those winners from everything else. Up next, we'll talk some more stocks and more sectors. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is a one and only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you. one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

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With Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show. I'm Adam Sarhan, filling in for Gary K. who's out today. And we covered a lot about the market. We gave you specific areas to watch in all of the indices, the Dow, the NASDAQ, S&P, mid-caps, small-caps, gave you some areas to watch and some sectors. And then spoke about some psychology, about pullbacks and the importance of leaning into it and not looking away. So you're there when it turns, because these pullbacks end.

One way or another, it's either going up, it's going to break out and hit new highs, or it's going to roll over and go down. Nobody knows with 100%. uncertainty, but what we can do is do what Gary does and stay tuned in, stay plugged in, and put the pieces of the puzzle together. So, again, during pullbacks, what do we do? Look for stocks that are going up while the market goes down. It gave some earlier, but I'll give some more. Celsius, C-E-L-H, Workday, W-D-A-Y, into it.

I-N-T-U. Another good one, right? take your time. Look at sectors and ask yourself, all right, this is going from the lower left, the upper right? Is it break in support? Is it in the middle of a range? And you just have to look at it.

Transportation stocks, IYT. The high there resistance was 267-85, close today at 241. The low back in August was 243-69. Let's just call it even round numbers, 243. You broke below it yesterday when you closed at 242 and today you close at 241. That's a breakdown.

All right. You're below the 50. You're below support of the trading range going back to the August lows. That's not a good sign. The financials. You've got XLF, 3571, and you've got 3358. You close at 3423. Just write them down and you've got clear levels to watch.

so you don't have to guess as far as like, oh, what's going to happen? It's just let the market guide you. I always like to say the market's speaking and then ask, are you listening? Housing stocks, X, HB. X is an X-ray, H isn't housing, B as in boy. All right, these are home builders. 8513 is resistance. And support is 77, 78.

You close at 81 to 62. You break out below 85? Pop quiz, bullish or bears? You can answer it. It's bullish. You break down below support. Bullish or bears? It's bearish.

And why is all that important? It's important because in the middle of that range where we are right now, it's just going to be choppy until eventually that Game of Tuggo War, one side's going to win. We don't know which side yet, but you just wait and see. And then when one side wins, you know what to do. The KRE, the regional banks, look to be rolling over here. you have 4281 August low is support 4956 is the high from back in July and you close at 4298 sorry 4297 and 4281 was the low so guess what happens if we close below 4281 no boy no I mean literally it's just that simple I used to try to overthink this that's not you know it doesn't serve me well to do that I used to try to get

get really just complicate things. People, humans, have a tendency to overcomplicate things. One that should just keep it real simple. So, an area that is leading, cybersecurity stocks. When you have a chance, take a look at hack, H-A-C-K. It's an ETF that tracks a basket of cybersecurity stocks. Okay, well, that's leading, so let's look at some of them. Palo Alto Networks, P-A-N-W.

You've got a big trading range there between 258-88. and 201, and right now you're at 245. That looks good. If it keeps coming up the right side here, you've got 254.03, then 258 is the next levels to watch. Z-scaler just reported earnings. And there you've got a big trading range. It tried to get above 164-29 just yesterday.

It hit a high of 165-37, but closed lower because the market was in trouble. All right, you rallied back and you closed up today. So if it can get above 164, let's just say 165, that's viable. It's right near resistance. Again, find these stocks that are up or near resistance as the market's pulling back. Because the second we get that confirmation of a new rally attempt and the market is indeed, the pullback's over. Indeed, it's going to begin a new up trend.

These stocks that are acting well, they're exhibiting strong relative strength, are going to be the first ones out of the gate. That's just typically how it's historically been. Things could change in the future, of course. But historically, the leaders lead. It's just that simple. So that's Z-scaler. Other cybersecurity stocks, cyber, CY, BR, 169-34 was a high from back in July, and you got above it yesterday.

Nicely, you closed just below it today. So that's a good example of a stock that broke out above resistance and wasn't ready to go yet, and then fell today. So yesterday you closed at the line, the pivot point of resistance, was 169-34. you closed yesterday at 171. So it was just a good breakout yesterday on above average volume. Okay. Today, rolls right over, closes at 168. And the pivot point was 169.34.

Or 10 cents above at 169.44. Just how it works. I mean, not every breakout works. If it did, we own a few islands in the Caribbean. In fact, most breakouts fail, and that's okay. Getting the mindset right is so important in this business. The best baseball players in their world, world. At the 10 pitches, they connect, what, around three times? And those are the best of the best.

The best traders in the world that I know of that have real track records, right? Up, down, you know, that kind of thing, some years are up, some years are down like anybody. But for the most part, they lose more than they win. Adam, how's that possible? Think about it. It doesn't matter the number of times you lose if you keep your loss of small. What matters is how much do you lose when you're wrong versus how much do you win when you're right. At the 10 trades, here's a quick example. If you lose one nine times, you're minus nine. The 10th trade, you can win 10. Okay, net, net, you're up one.

Trader number, you know, the next trader, trader B has 10 trades, loses. Sorry, wins 9 out of the 10. So they're up 9, wins 1 every time. The 10th trade, they lose 10. Net net, they're down 1. One has a 90% loss losing ratio out of the 10 trades. It has a 90% win ratio. Who do you want to be?

You want to be up one or down one? understand the size of the laws versus the size of the win is what matters. Understand your biggest winners are ahead of you. Understand when markets pull back, they're normal. It's part of the process. Lean into it. Stay engaged because the biggest wins, the best times to get involved. It's the early parts of those new uptrends once that pullback ends.

So that's the time we have for today. Everyone want to thank you very much for being here. This is Investor's Edge. Do like Gary says. Hug this children. Hug your wife. Be happy. Put the market where it belongs.

and I'll speak to you again soon. Thank you everybody for being here. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.