Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Lies to the left, lies to the right [03.16.2026]

Episode Date: March 16, 2026

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And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you're listening. It would be March 16th, 2006. Hope you're having a good day. Hope you had a good weekend.

We've been here in Central Florida getting hit with all kinds of weather. Today, around two, I had hail the size of, almost golf balls, falling on my office. They're trying to tell me something? It was a doozy, but it went past an a half hour. Fortunately, the wind took it. And there was tornado warnings and all kinds of fun stuff. Welcome to Florida. Hey, this is a show serious talk about everything that affects you.

We will do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, war, tariffs, and anything else that matters, anything that moves the needle, in a very much needle-moving environment. And if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our X feed. And don't follow us on X you should. Just put our name in. If you like to email us, just be nice. Just be nice.

And we'll also post it on our YouTube channel, BizTV. As you know, we went 10 and 1 in the NFL playoffs. and including the final of the NCAA. 10 and 1. Hit the Super Bowl. By the way, within one point, we gave you the final score within one point. Guess what starts now?

March Madness. And if you think we're good with football, wait till you see what we are with March Madness. Just remember, we don't do regular seasons. It's too tough. Don't have the time. But when it comes to playoffs and things like that, we've won, I think, 25 Super Bowls last 25 years. In the playoffs, we're in the 70s or 80s, and this year was phenomenal.

And we also done the, we did the final, the NCAA football, but now we're basketball. And we're not going to do a ton of games, but when something shows up, we're going to let you know. And of course, we'll do the final four and the final. which is in a while. Just letting you know. Okay, next. We're going to do all markets today, but I need two to three minutes before we do that.

We're hitting 39 trillion of debt any day now. And of course, they're laughing at us. They hate us. We're just marks for their con. There are no Republicans. There are no Democrats. They're just con artists. Some better than others.

Some worse than others. Some handle things well. Some handle things terribly. Some are corrupt. Some aren't. I can go on and on. This weekend, the absolute bull crap spewing from this administration on the war sickens me. You know, when they were spewing bull crap,

On tariffs? All right, they're tariffs. This is war. Oh, but I'm not done. Fair and unbiased. And then the Democrats. So you get one, just lies the whole weekend about everything.

And then you get the other. Have you seen what's going on at the airports? You know what the Democrats know, that they're winning the midterm so they don't care. They don't give a crap about you. have you seen what's going on at airports three four five hour waits missing airplanes missing connections between the two parties and you know why there's never been a third party because they figured it all out campaign finance reform remember that wait a minute if there's

campaign finance reform how do you have 1.5 billion used for Kamala Harris. It's because they lied to us. I'm so sick of all of them, I can't begin to tell you. There are hardly any heroes yet left. I have a couple of heroes, and you know what they get cursed out by Donald Trump because they are truthful. Trump is not a conservative.

He's not a Republican. He's a tax hiker, control markets. Certainly not for free markets. And when you have a chance to come out and say, you know, we had great attentions, intentions, and we miscalculated a little bit. No. We knew the straight of Hormuz would happen. Yes, sure. We knew the oil prices would go up 40, 50%, sure.

He just looks at all of you and smiles and gives you the middle finger. And then there's Schumer and Hakeem Jeffreys on the other side. One's the Senate, one's the House. I just want to vomit. I just want to vomit. But the bigger picture, we're going to be $39 trillion. Oh, by the way, under Trump, $2.6 trillion added to our debt his first year. Oh, and under Trump, he keeps saying he won the 2020 election, which has chased all

the independents away, guaranteeing there is no chance the Republicans keep in the House. And there's a very good chance now they're going to lose the Senate. And of course, he'll blame all the candidates. Anyway, call me a little demoralized. You should be sick of it also. You really should. And I can go a little bit further of him playing golf on the weekends while there's war. we're in a golf cap when they were transferring bodies of soldiers I can go on and on demoralized

and by the way I'd say it all to his face I'd probably get the IRS on me but you know you got to stand on principles I'm rooting for him I'm hoping he gets it right I stand beside him but as a good American

I must call the crap out. 39 trillion of debt. We move on. I'll get some emails today. So, oil prices dropped today. Futures 6 o'clock last night

immediately were up very nicely because oil prices were going to come down some. I put out a note yesterday. Oil prices are massively stretched, extended, and overbought. Markets are oversold, not massively, but oversold. The patterns are not great. Leadership in the markets has been lost in many areas. We've had a one-two punch of not only oil prices going up, but 10-year yield has been going up. Well,

today, oil prices came down. I give you the USO. It is an eat. for oil prices. And today, it went down $4.92 to $1.14.97. Still very elevated. Still very stretched, extended. I've been asked incessantly what I think happens. I'm pretty sure once we get past this, we'll drop down to, well, we finished at 92 and change today,

we'll drop down to 6570 I think and the markets will be better and the airlines and cruise lines and hotels and travel that have been hit will bounce that's a good guess don't you think it's a good guess that they're going to have to get the hell out of there eventually and save face and say hey we won what's going to end up happening is an where the president can say we won and the dudes in Iran can say we won. That's what I expect. That's the way to get out of this. And I'm pretty sure my guess before the end of this month. Up next, through the markets and whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

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pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that

point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Here the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much. more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.

And she replies with a low, Listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. Cashflow crunch? On-Dex small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds,

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OnDec does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And by the way, one of the other. the thing. And I'm sure of this. You know, the president keeps saying we're the most respected in the world, we're the greatest, this, that. Do you know all these countries gave him the middle finger when it came to helping out in the Middle East? Do you know why? Because he puts down everybody. Everybody's a put down. And you know, leaders of countries, what do you think? They got big He goes, hell yeah. Oh, put me down. You will help you.

But that's the other part of the equation. It's tiresome. And he just put out a tweet, this war was started by Barack Hussein Obama and Joe Biden. I don't even know what to say. We move on. I promise, that's it. Oil comes down.

Early on, we were up 600 on the down. Finished up 387. S&P up 66. NASDAQ 268. At one time today, we were, whoa, up 420. So we'll call it a good day with some distribution. And by the way, I believe that 420 happened. Yeah. In the first 10 minutes of 3 o'clock hour, let me do some explaining. NVIDIA, the CEO, was at some confab talking things up. and video went from up three to up eight, finished up three. They said some things, talk big numbers, market loved it, but came right back down.

It also affected other things. I guess they said something to the effect of what they're going to use and who they're going to use it with. So like something like symbol L-I-T-E. was at 673 today closed at 624 most of the drop when NVIDIA was talking even Sandisk

dropped from 719 to 719 to 7 oh that's not so bad 703 but some others came in also because guess what these things are involved with NVIDIA coherent at 262 closed at 247

yeah so there was some wishy-washy in there. I'll look it over when I'm done. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hits 7896, closed at 7796. Am I right? Yeah. Was up 250, finished up 150.

So you had good bounces today. What pulled back? Some of the fertilizers. Interesting enough, oil prices were down, but some oil stocks were up. but overall good advance decline usual suspects on the move usual movers in the Dow Goldman up 12 just remember Goldman moves 1% it's 50 Dow points if Verizon moves 1% it's uh 3 Dow points yeah that's about no two and a half down points the way they figure out the Dow is insane

I don't think a lot of things change today though with a strong day because so many things have turned into downtrends and I think they're going to have to come out of it first and they could we're in the most news-driven environment ever so they could my leaders list had a very good day but I will tell you they've had some terrible days too because they're very high beta and a lot of them pulled in a big story this week will be

Micron reports on Wednesday I believe it's quite the important name and I didn't even realize this we have the Fed on Wednesday who are a non-factor. Of course, the president's ripping the stuffings out of him again because the president doesn't understand economics when it comes to the Fed.

I do. He wouldn't listen to me anyhow. You don't lower rates when inflation's picking up because of what's happening with oil. What am I going to be looking for right now? It's simple. which way oil price is going and which way is 10 year yield going. Both went down today.

Good news. Both have been going up. Bad news. You got my guess once we get past this. I think it's a pretty darn good logical desk that both sides are going to find it out. I don't know where that leaves them. The president keeps saying they're destroyed. They're destroyed, but I got news for you.

They still are out there attacking. I still don't understand them going after Dubai in Bahrain and these other places in the Middle East. That I don't get. But then again, they're a bunch of thugs. They're a bunch of terrorist thugs. And how do you supposed to understand terrorist thugs? you're not supposed to. Financials, still terrible.

Housing bounced today because of lower rates, but terrible. The transports that were leading so well, up a little today, remain under serious pressure. Auto dealers, autos, lots of retail. Don't get me started on payroll. There's just a lot of areas in roughshy. shape, casinos, anything travel. Though there's one name I'm hot on, you know, this severe thing that's in Vegas and they're putting up another one.

S-P-H-R. If that baby, it tried breaking out recently above 120, we'll call it, got to 122 a few days ago and tucked back in because what's going on. If it gets through 120 again. We're not telling you to buy sell short of cover, but I'd be looking at it. Actually, it's pulled back to the 50-day moving average. That may not be a bad place. I have yet to go into the sphere, but I'm planning on going to see the Eagles in the next couple of months.

And I hear they're doing like the Wizard of Oz in there, and supposedly it's spectacular. I'll do that too. Semiconductors, I got a bunch that have broken the 50-day. I have a bunch that are still okay. I'm putting iffy now. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is below the 50 day the last six, seven days. Gotta get back above. Up next, what else we see in?

And we're done with D.C. This is the one only investors out. Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle

where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut you should be living with so that's when we deep dive we deep dive into your medication we deep dive into your medication and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change hear the full conversation plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on beyond the script a podcast from cvs pharmacy and iHeart radio listen now wherever you get your podcasts. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar,

and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say, and she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening.

That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. Cash flow crunch. OnDack's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Seltic.

Bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans an amount subject to lender approval. Talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, as you know, in the past 18 months, I lost both my parents, but both in the 90s. great lives, long lives. You know there's cliches out there.

One of them is they never said a bad word about anybody. Well, that was my parents. Nobody has ever said a bad word about them because they've never said a bad word about anybody else. Now my wife's father, probably any day. Any day. He's 92. Hopefully I got the good genes. That's all I can tell you. But he took a turn big time downward in the past couple of months. What's amazing about this man was, let's see, heart attack 15 years ago. A second one has had cancer of this, that, and the other thing, had a stroke. got to 92 and change.

You learn a lot as you get older. I still don't know where a couple of my decades went. You all know that, right? Those of you're in your 50s and 60s now, you're saying to yourself, where that decade go? And you know how you know you're getting old? All your favorite athletes or stars are passing away left and right.

Before, when I was very young, I was a New York Jets fan because I was a big Joe Namath fan. And you know how we were able to listen to the Super Bowl when we, I had to listen to it on radio. Just so you know, it was taped delayed, the Super Bowl, the Jets versus when they beat Baltimore. I was a huge fan. And this week Matt Snell,

the running back passed away and I'm thinking to myself, crap, where did it go? And then I look, he was in his 80s. That's the other part. He's in the 80s. Anyway, so my father-in-law and we'll let you know how that goes

and I may have to miss a couple of days if need be. It's a day-to-day thing at this juncture. All right, back on point. In the middle of the day today, I did a webcast that did not work. So I'll do another one tonight. And what I did is I went through everything that trades down to 1 million shares. Kids, except for oils and sundry other things, this market needs work.

And I have to tell you, if I didn't know better, I would have to tell you. I would have thought the big indices were down 15 to 20 by now because when I look at Goldman and some of these private equity companies that have been squashed I mean I see a blackstone that's gone from 190 to 107 that's usually an influencer but right now no the indices are down I think the number

NASDAQ may be down seven after today. It was down eight. I would have thought it's down 15 to 18. It just tells you the makeup of the indices, got them hanging in there. I've been able to hold my SPY that I bought in April of last year. I've made no more money on it the last four to five months. It's gone flat, but I haven't had to sell it, which is surprising. And let's hope I won't have to sell it. But I have to tell you, any more weakness in the market? Oh yeah. Oh yeah.

The Fed this week, they're going to keep interest rates where they are. That's the smart move. Why? Because he's at three and a half in the ten years at four and a quarter. And inflation's picking up with the oil and fertilizing and all this other crap. You don't lower short-term rates into that. Now, I believe Powell's done in May. I don't know if he's going to stay on his Fed governor.

He's allowed to. Unfortunately, they're going to be putting in a puppet of Trump's. That's all they're going to talk about is lower rates. We'll keep you informed. Because the last time they went too far, Jay Powell took us to 9% inflation. And let me repeat, that was all Jay Powell. he does not get the blame because he's not elected, so they blame Biden. Biden didn't help with his spending, but the inflation came from the ridiculous, easy money, printing to $9 trillion, buying up the bond market, taking rates to nothing, and then giving you 3% mortgages, distorting the whole freaking housing market, which by the way is now

becoming more than just a correction. In 2007, we called the housing bubble. We don't think we have a housing bubble now. We think we have serious normalization from Jay Powell. How do I know this? We do our legwork. The amount of inventory, huge in many areas. no prices are going up they're all coming down houses sitting for sales for six seven eight nine months and still not being sold marked down three or four times still can't be sold that's the normalization there are others that are calling for a big bubble bust i'm not there yet

in fact i got something from somebody home sales just dropped to the lowest level since o nine the second worst february the second worst february in 30 years, down 35% from the pandemic peak, down 25% from pre-pandemic norms. This is not a cool down. This is a buyer strike. If you own a home, read this. If you think of buying, do not. Here's what's happening step by step. Buyers have completely disappeared from the market, sales at levels not seen since the

Great Recession. Traditional media tried to claim a recovery in February 26th. That was not true. inventory flooding the market as panic sellers list below asking price. This is what he says. Florida already crashing. Fort Myers down 11.5%. And he mentioned some other areas.

More sellers, fewer buyers, prices accelerate down. Again, we think this is a normalization from Jay Powell playing God. Will it get worse? I mean real worse? I'm not in that camp. but we'll stay on top of it. It's a buyer's market. Just so you know, buyers.

Certain areas remain hot. Nature of the beast. Ocean, water, golf, not bad. But overall. And then the big housing companies, they're lowering prices, giving away extras. That's how you. you know. So just letting you know what's going on with housing. This guy's calling for the end of the

world though. We'll keep you informed. And why did this happen? Because everybody got 3% mortgages. Nobody wanted to sell. And when there are no sellers, prices get forced up. And we ended up with crazy moves and what we call fantasy land. I'm seeing million dollar homes three years ago being put up for three, five. From three, four years ago. go fantasy land and for a while it was working it's not working anymore again we'll keep you informed I do not think the trend changes anytime soon and let's hope government stays out of it they'll only make it worse first the dummies came up with a 50 year mortgage stupid Who is that, Pulte?

What next are they going to call for? Let the market work itself out over time and between buyers and sellers, not the government. Up next, what else we're seeing in the market? For tomorrow, this is the one only investors end. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic

stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut you should be living with so that's when we deep dive we deep dive into your medication we deep dive into your otc medication and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change here the full conversation plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on beyond the script a podcast from cvs pharmacy and iHeart radio listen now wherever you get your Podcasts.

One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.

Hershey's. It's your happy place. Cashflow crunch. OnDack's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic.

Bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans an amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. It's starting to come down again outside here.

We had, man, I'm in the second floor looking down my office. I saw golf ball-sized hail. and boy was it noisy yummy yummy yummy all right new yearly high list

on a great late day today though off the highs there's more new yearly lows on the New York than new yearly highs and the same goes for the NASDAQ that tells you a lot and what I'm always doing is

what is on the new yearly high list I can safely tell you. It's not growth at all. It's Devon Energy, BP, Patterson Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, Shell, Apache, Duke Energy,

First Energy, Suncor Energy, Range Resources, Murphy Oil, Oh, look at that. I found one away from that. Digital Ocean symbol D-O-C-N. And C-N-A-C-I-E-N, though I don't think it finished at the all-time highs. Range resources, just a bunch of oils. And some utilities.

That's it. And that's the problem markets have right now. Markets need leadership. And when you have the financials not working, working, the semis under some pressure, and as you know, a lot of reeking of havoc because of oil prices. There should be one more move up at the pump, and then if we keep coming down, we had a good down day today, then it should moderate a little bit. They bounced up commodities today after getting yonked last week.

I will tell you, South Korea is the strongest foreign nation, EWY. The weakest is China, FXI and KWEB. Go take a look at those. They're nightmarish. But whatever's going on in South Korea, by the way, last night, also Taiwan, the story was that China was surrounding Taiwan. I'm thinking we're waking up today and China's invading Taiwan finally. They've been threatening long enough.

Did not happen. Did not happen. The banks, not acting well. The private equity companies, not acting well. Investment brokers not acting well. They are a linchpin of the markets. stay tuned the software better but remember what we said we think a low is in but it's only because they're very stretched extended and oversawed to the downside they've been

moving higher but not so sure how much they're going to get out of this we'll see i still have my worries about AI and software crowd strike was down 18 bucks today after rallying up. And I have some peeps that have emailed me that are in the software industry telling me all kinds of stories. So I'm trying to figure that bad boy out. And leave no doubt,

there's going to be certain industries where artificial intelligence does its job and knock people out. There's been some serious job losses. The job market is puk. This is golden age talk with 80,000 lost jobs last month? I don't think so. The revision of GDP was 7 tenths of 1%.

I don't think so. By the way, I'm asked off him, what do you think's happening here? Oh, I think tariffs have hurt the economy. They won't admit it, but yeah, I do believe. And when I tell you, my friend had to spend $900,000 extra dollars, in his business on tariffs. Can't tell you what industry it is. 900,000 extra on tariffs.

That gets where that went to our U.S. Treasury. It's a tax hike. I think that's a component. And the president will never admit that, but it's out there. And there's a lot of people making excuses. I'm telling you, tax hikes are bad for the economy. In the Dow, I'm always looking for real strength and bustouts.

Don't have much. Chevron, oil, caterpillar, holds the 50-day. But American Express gets trashed. IBM trashed. J.P. Morgan, bearish. Johnson and Johnson. Probably the best acting Dow stock. Go figure.

I would have never believed that. So there's a lot of moving parts going on right now. A lot of underneath the surface stuff. I'm just taking my time, not trying to force the issue. I know where the leadership is, but I got to tell you, every time I'm thinking of buying, a $700 stock goes down $50 the next day. And I'm like, glad I didn't buy. And then it's up $40 the next day.

And that's that list I tell you about. Western Digital, Seagate, Sandysk, Avertive, Micron, Corning, Sienna, they better not go by the wayside, Bitcoin bounce today, and probably completing A-Lo, rallying back up to the 50-day, and we'll see what happens from there. It spent about five, six weeks trying to carve out a low, but it did that in November, December, and then got conked in the head and went straight down. So still in a bare market.

Be careful with that. Remember what we told you? 32,000 coins, a bunch of them that are still trading, while Bitcoin's down 40, 45%, others down 7580. Don't forget. They don't like you. You'll have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family and hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. I'm going to take a nap. Peace out all. Goodbye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

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