Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Lots of Questions Answered.

Episode Date: May 9, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks would be with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening as I drink some water. This is a show, serious show, with a little comedy injected. On you, your financial well-being, your job, the economy, your wealth, the markets, them. You know what we mean by them. And pretty much everything else in between. And as you know, those that have been listening intently and following the roadmap are not feeling the pain.

of what has been a brutal bare market. I would suggest that everything we have told you, everything since the beginning of 21, almost to a T. In 2020, we outlined for you the bubbles that were being created by our government, J. Powell, and then it would end really bad. we've warned you about how past bubbles ended in sadness. The 08 bubble, real estate bubble, crushed. And unfortunately, in order to fix that bubble, the idiot Bernanke,

just souped up what caused the bubble in the first place. Massive money printing. Easy money. And we went through some years. market accepted it, ignored it, dealt with it, and then the most nightmarish of people, nothing personal, this is pure business, showed up in Jay Powell, you could not get a more nightmarish person for the markets.

And what did we tell you? Nothing's wrong, as long as the markets are cooperating. you heard nobody complain when markets were cooperating except us what did we complain about the massive debt explosion of debt like we've never seen starting with Bernanke and in case you don't know in the whole history of the U.S. Up until Bernanke we had 10 trillion of federal debt 13 years of later they added 20 trillion more to 30. We warned you where the bubbles were. We warned you about the excessive leverage, people buying with borrowed money. We warned you about the game stops and the

spacks and the coins and the NFTs. NFTs. We warned you about all of it as it was happening. in real time. And we also stated, if we had this monstrous real estate bubble off of just a few trillion, what about tons of trillions? Looks like we're getting it in droves. We have already done shows here on all the bubbles that had popped. We've already done shows on the AMC movies that has gone from 72 to 12 or GameStop that has gone from 483 to 98 and is not worth 20. We've done shows on marijuana stocks like Tilray that has gone from 300 down to four. We warned you. We warned you.

We warned you about the Robin Hood stock, which has gone from, and we're not making this up, 85 down to 9. We warned you about all the no sales companies and told you they'll be destroyed. We warned you that anything that loses money will be destroyed. We warn you that prior bull market stocks

when we go into a bare market on average will drop 70%, this is from studies, because they get over-owned, over-loved, over-leverage, and over-referenced, and overvalued at the highs. This was all warnings. We warned you the day Rivian

came public. We warned you on November 16th when it hit 172. Almost the market cap of GM and Ford put together, even though they had 260 billion in revenues and Rivien had none. We warned you in all the ground. growth stock started topping out, especially the ones that lose money. We warned you how it worsened. We warned you how the bear market was getting more and more teeth while the indices were holding up

because of a few select stocks, but that's how markets topped. We warned you about it all, every shred of it. and now what you're seeing is what we warned you about. In one line, under the weight of all the weakness, in so many areas and so many stocks, eventually they get them all, and then the indices show themselves. as they go after all the stalwarts. Then and only then is it recognized as a bare market, even though underneath the surface there were already disasters. Well, we're seeing it now. The indices have been under pressure in quite the way since November.

That was when, just right around the end of October, was when the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 hit new yearly highs, even though there are 500 new yearly lows. We warned you about that. And we've been mourning to you ever since. And we never know exactly how things are going to play out. We just know what the main trend is. And under the guise that we warn you, eventually they get them all just recently. Some of the things that were holding up best we had told you were.

breaking down. Utilities, real estate investment trusts, insurance, managed care, waste management, and just recently, a bunch of the commodity names. Well, now they're getting all the commodity names. They have all broken down off the tops. Oils, port in the storm. Only a few names had broken off the tops. They got them today in a big way. Do you know what's left standing? General Mills, Kellogg, Post-Sereal, Smuckers, Campbell Soup, that's what's left standing now. The most recession-res defensive areas. Food. Beverage.

Little bit of tobacco. Little bit of household products. Everything else? Pretty much now gone with the wind. As we come into a Monday and another just rough day in markets. And there's a little reasoning behind it.

A, it's a bare market. But B, these ass clowns at the Fed do not shut up. They are lying to the American public. And guess what that in turn does? All the big institutional crowd that managed trillions of dollars are sitting there listening to them lie and acting. Get me out. Up next.

today's market. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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Apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, let's start with the NASDAQ.

Okay? The NASDAQ is now down 28% from the highs, 28.4%. We told you many percent ago that the average stock in the NASDAQ was down 30%, 35%, so it would not be a reach for the NASDAQ to play catch-up there. That's exactly what's going on right now. Simple as that.

It's as simple as that. The Dow is now off, let's see, 4,700 points off the highs on 37,000, thousand, uh, 37, 13, 14 percent on the Dow. Am I right in saying that? 36952 minus 32242 equals divided by 36952 13%. So how is the NASDAQ down 28, the Dow only down 13? Because it's exactly what we told you happens in a bear market. Remember, the roadmap. Everything we tell you about the roadmap of bull and bear markets has everything to do with the study of every bull and bear market in the past. The things we do here is not by accident.

It is not by happenstance. It is a well-known study that in bare markets, the Dow holds up best because you have some of the 30, most liquid. Liquid meaning you can park the money there. Boring. Some economically recession-resistant names. So it always holds up better than a NASDAQ, which has the more riskier stuff.

What's in the Dow? Well, you got Procter & Gamble, off just 5.8% from the highs. Procter and Gamble. You got Johnson and Johnson. Only 5.1% off the highs. Even Apple. The biggest the big.

It's now down 17%. It's not 28%. Coca-Cola. It's down 3.9% from the highs. You know how much the restaurants have been absolutely blasted in a brutal bare market, right? McDonald's is only down 8.7% into Dow. Why? The biggest, most liquid names will always hold up better because that's where money is found.

That's where money goes. It's as simple as that. The template. We ain't screwing around here, kids. We mean business. And when we told you, when we told you, we studied thousands of hours of bull and bear markets that we have thousands of charts printed out. That's where this all comes from in real time.

Well, I keep getting texts from people and emails about, you know who Bozo been calling bottoms the last two months. We don't mention names here. We don't take on. The S&P will be worse, down 17.5% than the Dow. Not as bad as the NASDA. So the Dow and S&P aren't even what they call bear market territory, but even the bulls know we're in a bear because of average stocks. So I want to go over a few things.

I want to go over what questions may you have at this juncture. What if you just turned into this show? I'm going to be on TV tomorrow locally, and they're going to be asking me what I would tell people, and you really can't. You can only say enough. What I will say is, if the question is, I haven't sold anything, I'm fully invested, my 500 is 400, what should I do? My broker's telling me, you've got to think long term. If you sell now, you're going to miss this and that. what do you do?

My best advice is what I call the sleep indicator. If you're not sleeping well, you own too much stock. Simple is that. That's my advice. We've received a lot of transferred accounts in over the last week. We're not even sure what exactly to do here because you're in no man's land.

Stocks are ridiculously oversold. We just dropped in 11 trading days. The Dow's 12 trading days. The Dow has gone from 3,5, 2,200 points. The NASDAQ in 12 trading days, you're ready for this one? Let me get this right. Just in 12 trading days, 16%. One would hope you would get some sort of counter-tren rally.

It doesn't mean you have to. I was asked today on TV about somebody had heard somebody say, if Apple crashes, doesn't that mark the bottom? I'm like, no, that marks a continuation of the bare market. I don't know where anybody would come up with the number one stock crashing and that would be the end of the bare market. I don't know in what world, with all due respect. And of course, we have been addressing the sentiment stuff because they've been parading a bunch of sentiment. people out there. The sentiment is so bearish. The market's going to bottom. Well, it was bearish a month ago. The market's crumbled. What does that mean? It means what we tell you. Price first,

sentiment second. And now they're getting them all. And what do I mean by that? In the last couple of weeks, we've been telling you, well, they're starting to get some of the commodity names. Not all. The coal stocks were still strong. A few others. Well, they got everything. today. They worsen the ones that already broke down. They got the rest. They got the agriculture, even the coal. We'll go through that. We'll go through the oils. We'll go through today's market wrap. I'll depress you even more, even though the Mets are 20 and 10. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you

expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker

distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your

Next, dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, one of my favorite quotes from anyone, Warren Buffett once said,

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. And we've warned you about all the bubbles. We've warned you about the coins, everything. The coins are now being crushed. We've warned you in the last couple of months as they've been crushed how all the ass clowns that are in it big are trying to con you into believing they know what the hell they're doing and just follow their lead when we're telling you it's just a bubble that's all it is i thought there were 12,000 of these coins i'm now being told they came out with 19,316 of them you know what that is a bunch of people

trying to jump on top of the coin thing because they saw this dogy coin go from nothing to 77 cents and it was a lark by the way it's now 11 i don't even know why it's still 11 so we warned you about the coins we warned you about the coin base going public we warned you what would happen there's nothing behind these things it's bull crap all you got to do is think what is behind the asset, the price of an asset? Well in their case, there's no sales, there's no earnings. It's just somebody paying a higher price. And as I've said to on the show, you got these clowns out there, oh, it's going to a million. That means somebody has to pay $999,99.99 for it to go to a million. Ain't nobody doing that. Yeah, but Gary, hasn't it gone this for?

Yeah, but the bubble's popping now. Coinbase has gone from 369 to 84. I take it back when it came public in April of 21. It hit 430. And the rest of those are destroyed. And now they're getting the two stalwarts. Ethereum. And what's the other one?

A Bitcoin. So Ethereum, the E-T-H-E, is now down $60. 6.3% from November 12th. The Bitcoin is 62% from November 12th. What are the November 12th have in common with those two? Oh, that's when all, everything topped. All it was was a bubble. And the only reason Ethereum and Bitcoin are still not zero

is because they're owned by just a select few big owners. And they can't ever sell. I can't be good to tell you how much hate mail we got. Just because we came out and said, we think this is a bubble. And one of the hate mail actually had an real email address. Most don't. And I mail back, well, if we think it's a bubble and you're right and we're wrong, you should be happy as all hell that we completely disagree with you.

It means we're going to get run over and you're going to make a ton. Ain't nobody making a ton. It's just a bubble. That's all. And now they got the oils today. the OIH down 11% today the XOP down 11% today the XLE that's the big oil

the XOP 10.32 the OIH 10.70 the XLE down 8.26 they got them not much left you know I can tell you what was up today it would take me like five seconds. You ready for some numbers? New yearly lows at the close today,

2,987 stocks. I'm not sure I've seen that number before. New highs, it was mostly inverse exchange traded funds that are just trying to break out a range, so they're still underperforming what they were supposed to do. So all we can say again, we just hope you've been listening. That's all. We've been plain English. We've been blunt. We've been to the point.

And when we tell you we follow a roadmap and every now and then we tell you about our webcast that we do, all you had to do is follow the webcasts. And you're 100% cash now. You'd have been 80 to 100% cash the whole time since November. and actually made money a couple of times on counter-trend rallies. So we don't know what Tamara brings, all we know today. The market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rorback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment-dash-models.com. Dowdown 653. S&P 132, NASDAQ 521. Holy crap. The NASDAQ today was down 4.5%. Wow. The socks down 152. The transport's down 430. Advanced decline sucked. Up down volume sucked. Oil's trashed. Commodities trashed. Nothing redeeming here. There were some things that were up.

you know it's at new yearly highs you ready Kellogg General Mills Campbell soup Post cereal close to new highs smuckers that's peanut butter and jelly

and some other you know the food drug beverage tobacco household products areas that it held up as of recent buy-bye and my growth page to my left, the south end of a northbound jackass. Gold, we told you it topped out. We told you on 421, we think even gold's now topped out. They're coming after it too. That's your market. stocks that gaped up on earnings immediately dumped

immediately and even almighty apple firmly below the 200 day moving average now we have already told you this is before the last few days 22% of all NASDAQ stocks down 75% or more 50% down 50% or more it wasn't a reach to say that the NASDAQ was going to go

much lower itself. And of course, if they keep getting the biggies, that's all it'll take. And we told you when the biggies were holding up and everything else was getting trashed, what would potentially happen. Now, of course, why is this happening? Ladies and gentlemen, as I have explained to you, the physicality of this, the big, gargantuan mutual funds, hedge funds, all kinds of funds. They have these portfolio manager meetings and they meet with their analysts and they're getting the temperature of what's going on. And they have some brilliant, brilliant people that are finding out that the rates for shipping and truckers and demand for shipping and truckers falling off a cliff.

So what do they do? Sell the hell out of J.B. Hunt. Get me out. They hear that at Lenovo and Newlett Packard and Dell supplies up 44 percent, even even though supply change are constrained. What's with that? That means demand is bad. Guess what they're doing.

They're selling the hell out of tech. And then the roadmap. In bare markets, anything that loses money is going to get just crammed. That's for starters. And then the over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-valued names that did so well in the bull.

Up next. Where do the ass clowns at the central bank fit? This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. Bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, Ready? Go. In investors edge.

With Gary Kaltb. As you know, I suffer no fools when it comes to talking about the central banks that have caused all this. You know they have. You know how you know. We told you in advance. We told you they were going to cause this.

We told you in advance. Let me tell you the problem right now. So as I explained to you physically, these big portfolio managers and their analysts are in meetings with their executives and they're derisking hey sell some of that uh facebook and buy some more uh johnson and johnson but there's something else going on they're pretty smart also this weekend some of the central bankers wouldn't shut the hell up and the problem is simple they're liars. Not only are they inept. Not only do they not have a clue. Not only are they are the culprits.

They're also a bunch of liars. Amazingly, amazingly, one of them said this weekend, they're not behind the curve. Behind the curve means yields are over 3%, they're less than 1%. In order to fight inflation, they are supposed to be above the 3%, if not a lot above. So these big portfolio managers and their analysts are sitting in a movement saying, these people suck. And we need to sell more because they're lying about how much they suck. Catch in my drift? If the people that are supposed to fight the inflation are lying about fighting the inflation

and have no clue what's in front of them, what do you think the big? money's going to do. They're going to sell more. Then another one came out. One that has been wrong 100% of the time. Not 99. 100. And lied. Our expectation is for this, that, and the other thing. There's not an expectation anymore. There's a prayer for it. And what do you think those portfolio managers do when they hear that. Sell. D-risk. Get me the hell out of the way.

So you have that. What else are they watching? Oh, Chuck Schumer saying, in order to cure inflation, we need to raise taxes. Excuse my friend, you couldn't be a bigger schmuck. And that's just a lie. He's just lying. He's not making a mistake. He's lying. They're crazy.

President Biden, God bless him. Wish him nothing but good health. A gargantuan 5.8 trillion spending bill will lower the deficits. What? Huh? Remember last week we ripped him for saying that he lowered the deficit for last year? Do you know the Democrats are out here out today calling him a liar? So what do these portfolio managers do when they see the head honcho's top

dog big cheeses, not understanding it, not getting it, coming up with solutions that would do even worse, they sell, they de-risk. And of course, in our opinion, we are contracting economy now. If I'm right, guess who knows I'm right? The portfolio managers and the executives and the analysts, what do they do? Sell, and that's... how it goes until it stops. And as we tell you, we don't know how long, how far we just know when we're in a downtrend, big, medium or small, and we know how to stay the hell out of it. And I heard people today saying, well, you know, if you're out, how do you know to get back in?

Well, just like we study the heck out of bare markets and tops and the process and the roadmap, what do you think we did for bottoms and bull markets? And that roadmap. In advance, we're already triply focused on what we call basketballs being held underwater. What stocks? But we know with no reason to even think about it yet. We're too early. Tesla was one But as we always say eventually they get them all

As the bare market winds its way They got Tesla But as we go more and more Deeper and deeper and deeper longer We're going to sit on earnings season And see what companies are doubling their business year over year Upper 80% in earnings And then we'll wait

to we start to get that feel that the process of bottoming, not topping, starts. And topping is much easier to see than bottoming. But you know what happens when things bottomed? The best stocks stop going down much before the markets stop going down, showing their great relative strength because of their great earnings and revenues and then we start to see more and more and that's when the process begins

we ain't there yet stay tuned tomorrow be another day hope it's better that said you have a great evening drive carefully and when you get home to like we do make sure you hug your family, you hug your children, they will feel better, you will feel better,

I promise. And again, let's hope things get better sooner. Until tomorrow, have a great evening, everybody. Same time. Tomorrow, peace out all. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary.

Go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. in your wallet. Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.