Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Lower yields, lower oil [06.04.2024]
Episode Date: June 4, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.
Thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is Tuesday, June 4th, 2024.
Hope you're having a good day.
Let me start out by saying Thursday's June 6th, D-Day.
If you have never been to Normandy and surroundings, do everything you can to learn about it and then go there.
I have done it now twice.
And speechless, for lack of a better word, you watch saving Private Ryan,
But it really, and it's very tough to watch at the beginning, but it really does not play into what actually happened.
They narrowed saving Private Ryan and the landing on the beach to like something that lasted a few minutes when it lasted hours.
And the climb up the cliffs, when you go to Normandy and the surrounding, you got to see what these men had to go through.
and then there's the American Cemetery,
the hedgerows, Omaha Beach,
all the surrounding areas,
as well as the little towns,
if you have a chance,
go do it.
D-Day is Thursday,
and I have to tell you
one of the best places
I took one of my sons.
The other has not been there.
I plan on it, but he's having a baby soon.
By the way, I think I told you I am not going to be a grandpa.
I'm going to be called something else around the first week of July.
Hey, yo.
Okay.
In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
And we don't screw around.
We have no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive.
We always used to talk markets, markets, markets, markets, markets.
We used to have CEOs on.
We had some major CEOs on this show.
We had politicians on, and we just got tired of hearing.
Everything's great.
Everything's wonderful.
I'm the greatest.
And then it started, you know, the takeover of the government of us.
First slowly and now swiftly.
So we just have to do a lot more of that.
as we go forward. And as you know, I've said this election is the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague.
As you know, I have stated to you that the choice, though, is binary. As you know, I have said to you,
we cannot have another four years of what Joe Biden is doing to the Treasury. He's murdering us.
and it's very simple.
Spend us into hell
and then come after us
with the taxes.
And he is proposed amazingly.
Amazingly,
he is proposed
taking long-term capital gains
from 20% up to 44%.
He has proposed
the utter stupidity of unrealized taxes.
So in other words, if you've made money
on your securities throughout the year, but you have not sold.
You have to pay taxes if it's up, which means if you don't have the money, you're going to be forced to sell, and the market could snowball.
The man is a doofus. He is also proposed, but has already backed away wealth taxes.
And of course, the big freaking lie.
we are not going to extend the Trump tax cuts, but don't worry, only the wealthy will be affected.
A lie.
Every tax cut goes away.
So anybody who got a tax cut, which is from $1, doesn't matter how much you make, how wealthy are, your taxes go up.
And they're trying to say no, but it's a lie, and they're very good at lying.
They're fabulous at lying.
They make Trump look like a truth teller.
The bottom line is you can't pick apart a bill and say, oh, we're going to keep that one in.
It's either all or nothing.
So that binary choice, well, you get my point.
So we're going to keep talking the talk because the latest is now he's going to do something about the border.
And we just want you to remember that for three years, they opened the border wide,
like a big, gigantic mouth of a shark, and millions of people flooding in.
And we have no clue half of who a ton of them are.
The head of Homeland Security has said, we're not sure.
You know, the word gotaways.
That's exactly what it means.
So he's now, he told us for three years the border secure, and by the way, once it got bad, there's nothing we can do about it.
But then he saw the poll numbers on immigration where his poll numbers are worse than root canal and jock itch.
So now he puts in an executive order today.
Finally.
But it doesn't do squat.
If the legal crossing surpassed 2,500 a day, which have been going on since every day,
his presidency, a ban would go into effect. Hey, great. $2,500 a day. So we're letting you know
the nightmare of Joe Biden continues, the lies of his continues, the takeover of our lives
continues, and what do you mean by takeover? Two trillion-dollar-year deficits, and then he's coming
after you. And when he tells you, oh, we're going after the privileged few, you know, the wealthy,
the mega wealthy, the successful.
No, he's going after you.
Why? A, number one, the Trump tax cuts, but B, what do higher taxes do?
What do higher taxes do?
Let's say they started 200,000 a year, 300, 400, what do they do?
It means as you get bigger and better and more successful, he's got a machete out cutting you off at the knees.
And in certain states, we're talking in the 50s.
In the 50s, you've got to work into the month of July or August in some blue states.
It's sheer insanity.
So as we get to the end of the year, we're going to cover it.
We'll cover Trump also.
As you know, we talked about this latest thing in Wisconsin that was on 60 minutes, which nauseates the hell out of me.
But again, we got this binary choice.
so we'll see how it goes
lastly
and then we'll get into markets
and commodities
and J-Lo and Taylor Swift
J-Lo and Taylor Swift
yeah we'll do that later
we talked about Fauci
yesterday and
people were thinking we were just defending
this guy
Fauci
no
we were offending the people
that just makes crap
up and all I know
is in real time
1.1 million people died
and in real time
nobody knew what the hell was going on
and in real time really
to try and figure out what to do
and to think
all of a sudden he's the antichrist because
the CDC said six feet
or masks
and we're told now well they didn't know
and maybe it didn't work or this that
who the hell knew people were dying
my neighbor died
people I knew
died. On TV, we were seeing mobile morgues. People dying. I didn't expect them to get it right
100%. I didn't expect them to get it right 50%. But when all was said and done, it got over.
And I was just watching some people today saying, oh, it was the worst reaction to this.
Reaction, nobody knew squad. It was brand new.
so we're not defending a person we're defending the whole thing and all i know is we got out of it god bless
and if you didn't lose any loved ones that's a great thing and hopefully they learn from it
and do better let's hope it never happens again but if it does learn from whatever mistakes there were
and of course there were mistakes from everybody.
It was a moving target.
That's my Fauci.
And now we move on.
So we segue as always pretty quickly.
Up next.
Economics versus and yields.
Up next on Investors Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
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Investors Edge.
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It doesn't get better than this.
Okay.
I'm going to explain this in the best way I know how.
And I think I can explain it where your 12-year-old can understand it.
In the markets, we believe the stock market.
has open ears, and we believe it has a big mouth.
We really do believe the market flushes things out early.
We have seen it time and time and time again throughout the years,
and sometimes there are extremes.
Back in 2007, and throughout 2007,
financial stocks were underperforming badly.
And I remember to the point where,
and we're talking big banks and things like that,
they started leading the market down.
And then I remember the Dow rallied a thousand points
and the financials could hardly budge.
And I was thinking to myself,
there's something wrong with the financials.
So we would come on to this radio show and whoever follows us and telling them there's something wrong with the financials. We have no idea what it is, but man, it's really weak. And then after the Dow rallied a thousand points, the financials led down, led by these major league got to own for life big banks. And at the end of the road, Merrill Lynch,
Bear Stearns, Wachovia,
Countrywide Financial,
Lehman Brothers,
whoever else went to zero.
City Group was going to be a zero.
They saved Citigroup.
They made a decision not to save Lehman.
And in case you don't know,
Citigroup stock right now is trading at $61.
But it's not.
It's trading at $6.10.
It did a one for ten split.
It's still down 90 some odd percent from back then, 0708,
because they had to do a whole different thing of a bob and got diluted up the wazoo.
So that was a time where there was this extreme market yelling and screaming,
something was up with a certain area.
And then there were moments in time where we're headed for a recession,
if not a big recession.
And all we know is from our studies, and I'm looking down right now at a bunch of boxes,
in those boxes, in my office, are folders.
Here's one that's titled, Commodities, April 29th of 2009.
It's just a bunch of charts of commodities, and I'm giving you a area and a date.
we have gone back to what the market does before recessions.
And basically, basically, every time what tops out, transports,
what we call economically sensitive stuff.
We're talking construction,
building, things you build with, machinery, tools, chemicals, and the like.
I think you get my point.
So we're always watching that not to hear an economist tell us about an economy,
because a perma bear on the economy will always stay a perma bear,
a permable, we'll always stay a permable,
but we're always looking to see
what the market's telling us.
And all we know is
a while back,
the transport stopped.
And then all of a sudden we get a GDP report,
that's 1.3% down from the threes.
So the market was flushing out
the GDP already. But
since
the transports have gotten worse,
housing is topped, and mind you remember the word
housing when we come back to Yields,
building slash construction
has topped,
tools, machinery
have topped, with some
of them not just topping off a top
but going into their second, third, and four,
Stair step to the downside.
When you have a chance, go look at a symbol called BLDR.
It's just called Builders First Source.
They do about 15 billion in revenues.
Building products for residential new construction.
With 214 in March, it's 146 today.
And has broken a couple of areas of support.
and as we go through every day, there's more names.
I can give you symbol after symbol, stock after stock,
that have been breaking down.
And now, recently, what did we tell you a while back with oils?
In fact, we told you it was right around second week in April.
we're worried about the oil's topping.
And then they topped, they broke,
they sat around, and broke again to the downside.
And what's happened?
Now oil prices are plunging.
Now that's good news at the pump.
I can promise you,
if nothing changes from this second,
in about 10 to 14 days,
prices at the pump are going to be cheaper,
except for like a California that keeps raising gas taxes because they're insane there.
And what else is happening?
Steel, aluminum, copper, and all that stuff that were bullish have not only turned down,
but they're turning down pretty good.
Putting into question, D-E-M-A-N-D.
Is oil prices tanking?
Are commodities tanking?
Are uranium and copper and aluminum tanking?
Are all these economic areas tanking based on the market sings something about the economy?
Housing, thinking.
And we're bringing this up because yields are also tanking.
The 10-year yield has dropped in four days from 4-638 to 4336.
It doesn't sound like much, but it's a lot.
And during that time, housing stocks have been breaking down more
when normally housing stocks would move higher on lower yields.
You catch in the drift?
Up next.
We'll continue along these lines.
Then today's market, I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
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You're listening to America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So, all it does is having us ask questions, wow, yields are just tanking, but so we're housing stocks.
Yields are tanking, but so we're building stocks.
yields are tanking but so are construction stocks
yields are tanking but so are transports yields are tanking
you catch the drift yields are tanking
and commodities are tanking
huh now takes me to the next part of the equation
doesn't yields tanking and oil prices tanking
could the market being look above the
the look beyond that mountain of the yields and oil may be saying demand dropping to, hey,
easier money going forward.
Well, today, we had another one of those days where it was weak and finished with the Dow up 140.
S&P only up eight, though.
NASDAQ up 28 after being down about 80, NASDAQ 100 down 53,
but the transports were down another 140.
commodity stocks were trashed
economically sensitive stocks
I can go through a litany of what they look like
yikes
oil stocks blasted also
and may I add
retail
hit hard today with the Dow up
140
semiconductors at a rough day but off the lows
and in case you don't know
in spite of AI
semiconductors are very economically sensitive.
Something to watch closely.
The good news is
the S&P, the NASDAQ,
and the NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ 100,
all three remain above the 50-day moving average,
and we call them in shape.
The Dow, which has been weaker,
is close to the 50-day.
It's trying.
So the big indices, no issues.
The small indices are lagging again badly, as usual.
And a lot of these areas are getting smoked.
Smoked.
Now, the good news for somebody who really watches things,
we'll see what comes out of it.
We'll see what comes out of it.
The leadership will show itself.
If these economic areas turn, we'll know it.
But here's a day, another day.
And by the way, this is not the first time we've brought this up.
It just got more accentuated today.
We don't try to guess here.
We don't try to predict.
But based on precedent, I would suggest if the market flushes out,
just an economy that softens down to flatline.
Let's say we get GDP at zero, no growth.
I don't think that'd be the end of the world for the market.
But if the market flushes out something onerous,
I would suggest they're going to take most everything down.
But I am not seeing that yet in any way, shape, or form when you look at the big indices.
Now, when you look at other areas, as I stated, ick.
And by the way, they got gold and silver too today to a pretty decent extent.
So those are the numbers.
And in the Dow today, you know, they went after the United Health was up eight.
Boeing was up for acting a little bit better.
I mean, the stock's been in the brutal bear market since like 19, those two tragic crashes.
And they're mishandling of it.
but nothing really down except in the Dow Caterpillar.
Guess what Caterpillar is?
Pure economics.
Probably our number one stock to watch, economic-wise.
Number two, as we always told you, United Rentals.
And United Rentals has been under some serious pressure.
So stay tuned.
We asked a bunch of you, we asked all.
of you to send us your thoughts on your industry and jobs and I can tell you about seven out of
ten or worried I had one that said things are going gangbusters and it happened to be guess where
that energy thing and two were so to be watched we had the thought process a while ago that we were
slowing down economically we had that thought process I think we're in the midst and now
how much we don't know.
I can tell you
the Marxist and Chief Biden
is just
peddle to the medal
on spending and deficit
spending to keep things
moving, building
his government
into this
job.
You have Janet
Yellen standing by
not giving a crap about our
treasury and
knowing, got to keep yields
down so she's funding
the government
when bonds mature
with short-term bonds
in order not to sell
long-term
bonds to keep
things down. They're doing
everything
possible via the
government to win the election.
That's what Marxist,
socialist control freaks do.
And that's a
of the market, ladies and gentlemen.
Very weird.
My economic screen looks like
the south end of a northbound jackass.
And I really can't tell with the Dow 140
what was up that much, except some down names.
And of course, NVIDIA was up 11.
Because NVIDIA is just
an insane asylum right now.
Actually, it was up 14.
It's actually down two bucks in the air.
after market.
So therein lies your story.
Tomorrow is another day.
If anything changes, we'll let you know.
You can't hide markets and what they want to do.
We'll look for the setups.
We'll see the setups.
Close our eyes, hold our nose and pray.
No, we won't.
We've tried that.
It does not work.
And that's your market.
What benefits from lower oil?
You know, it's been strong the last couple of days?
cruise lines, some of the airlines. Why? What's the biggest expense of cruise lines and airlines?
Oil. Oil prices plunge. The thought process is, hey, profits will be better. Just trying to put little two plus two equals four together.
What else is showing some strength? Just letting you know. Coca-Cola.
Showing strength. Dr. Pepper, show in strength.
Why would that be?
Well, what does best when the economic slows down in the markets?
Normally, they're called recession-resistant areas.
Food, drug, beverage, tobacco, how so products?
Speaking of tobacco, guess what's at New Yearly Highs?
Philip Morris?
An Altria Group.
Philip Altry Group manufacture cigarettes and tobacco products.
Philip Morris?
The same.
You know.
let's get rid of the tobacco, but let's legalize the marijuana.
There's an ad in Florida about the legalization of marijuana.
You know what the ad is?
You know what the marketing is?
We can watch it closer if it's legal.
Yes, thank you.
We appreciate it.
Nicotine bad, weed good.
We like a lot of stone people.
I gather people in government are buying Doritos and macaroni
and cheese futures for them munchies.
Don't you love the thinking of government?
They're just fab.
May I state for the record.
I mentioned at the beginning of the show,
we're going to talk Taylor Swift and J-Lo.
Jennifer Lopez.
What the heck does that have to do with anything we talk about?
Well, it is everything we talk about here.
About great and not so great.
demand, strong, or weak.
That's up next.
It's the one the only investor's edge.
It's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000,
airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by
Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar,
you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might
someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In The Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culper.
Hey, let's talk logic first.
This clown, roaring kitty,
and I don't know him,
but if I met him,
I'd have three words for him,
and that would be cut the crap.
And I think I'd use the other word.
Because what he is causing is people losing a lot of money.
The latest, remember what I said?
I'm wondering if he went upside down and was losing his arse.
When he went out and put up videos and had the stock go from 15 to 6483,
right back down to 17.
causing all kinds of problems for people that bought high.
So what does he do?
He comes out with ownership.
And I don't know how he ended up with a,
I guess they're saying,
100 million bucks of GameStop.
They opened it up at 40.5 yesterday.
It's 26.5.
Let's see.
That's $14 on 40.5.
34, 35% drop in a day.
so we hope you listen
I really do believe
you're dealing with a nefarious
piece of crap
I'd say it to his face
he knows he has influence
he's taken advantage
of all
and I hope he goes by
the wayside
like the dodo bird
more importantly
as I have told you
I have no clue what this stock does
I don't know whether it goes to
100 tomorrow or 10
what I do know
is ultimately they all go back to where they came from and just please be smart that's all we ask of
you please be smart they opened it up at 6483 a couple of weeks ago they closed it at 48 within
five days it was 17 and change then he pulls a stick again they opened it at 40 and a half yesterday
it's already 26 and a half the company their business is heading south they had to do a secondary
which dilutes the stock and by the way the other meme stocks crushed from the open yesterday also
So just watch yourself.
We're not telling you what to do.
We're not telling you to buy, sell, shorter cover.
It is your money.
But somewhere along the line, you've got to take the information at hand and realize this guy, I'm sorry, this ain't a good guy.
That's all.
And he's taken advantage of a company with a big, short position.
but anybody who's getting in late is getting squashed.
And I fear that there's another run in the stock.
I actually fear that
because I know what's going to happen at the end of any run it has.
Eventually, it's going to go where it should be valued.
Next, why do we own NVIDIA?
Well, demand has skyrocketed.
If it was a restaurant, I saw a video the other day of, I'll take that back.
There is a gelato place in New York City called Anita Gelato, A-N-I-T-A.
Walk past it any time a day and especially at night, there are 50, 100 people waiting 45 minutes to get gelato.
demand
demand
Taylor Swift
demand
sells out everywhere
in the states
by the way
if you want to go see Taylor Smith
Taylor Swift go to Europe
it's much cheaper in Europe
than here
but you have to fly to Europe
but she sells out everywhere
demand
this is not to put this young lady
down. We're just
talking business.
Jennifer Lopez just canceled
her tour. She
said it was to be with family.
We take
issue with that and we hope
everything is fine with her and her
family.
We hope this is not about
ill will. But Jennifer
Lopez is canceling her tour because
she can't sell tickets.
A lot of the
venues had a ton of empty
seats and she decided just too much. Why do we own Nvidia and why don't we own Tesla?
Nvidia monstrously strong demand Tesla monstrously weak demand as the industry goes south as the
governments that have tried to force it upon people have found out that people may not want
electric vehicles and go screw, even with taxpayer funding of $7,500.
So we just want to point out to you two people trying to sell tickets.
One, boom, the other, see ya.
And that's how we look at stocks.
We're always asked on TV, and we're always talking about
by greatness.
Stay away from failure.
And we're not calling Jennifer Lopez a failure.
But if she's trying to do a venue of 50,000 only gets 20, it doesn't look that great.
But I'm not sure if she did arenas or stadiums, to be honest with you.
But I do know definitively tickets were not selling well in many areas.
So we're just letting you know how we look at things.
Why don't we own Tesla?
Well, sales last three quarters, last four quarters, plus 47, plus nine, plus three, minus nine.
NVIDIA, sales, 101, 206, 265, 262.
That's what we're talking about.
It's the Kmart versus the Walmart.
That's what we're talking about.
Why are there no Kmart's?
because they left their business for dead.
That guy Eddie Lampert, who bought into them,
did not do anything with the stores.
And as we've told you in Lake Mary,
we had a Kmart, we had a Walmart and a Target.
You went into the Kmart.
It was dingy, it was dirty, shelves were empty.
Nobody was helping.
You go into Target.
It's beautiful, bright red.
You go to Walmart.
This nice man or woman is greeting you.
Prices good.
Do you go to Kmart?
No, they shut down.
And the same thing goes for crappy restaurants.
versus good restaurants.
So we're just letting you know just a good example of demand.
And again, we're not here to put anybody down.
God bless her.
I hope things work out for Jennifer Lopez and she can do concerts and sells them out like crazy.
We're just making a point.
That all said, have a great evening.
Drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
It's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
not short TV tomorrow.
Serenity now.
Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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