Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Market narrowing a bit [01.09.2024]
Episode Date: January 9, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
Transcript
Discussion (0)
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store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary cult bomb
straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb
and welcome once again to investors edge i'm gary coltbaum your host day thanks for being with us today
glad you're here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it is uh tuesday it's the ninth of january
2004, and I'm actually writing my checks with 2024 on them.
Usually it takes me to about the third week.
Hope you're having a good day.
We emanate this show from Central Florida,
where we have a tornado watch all around us
as a whatever, whatever, whatever is coming through,
but really no rain, just a lot of wind and just some icky-looking clouds.
But we are here and lots to cover.
If you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you may want to go there and do that.
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And again, this show is about everything that matters.
To you, your money, the markets, your job, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending,
scams, shams, corruption.
And when we end that line with corruption, it takes on all forms.
And, you know, our forte is the markets.
That's what we do best.
And we used to do a show 100% markets.
And then around the mid-2000, whatever it was, we noticed that our government was getting
more and more and more up our, you know what's.
given us a colonoscopy every day, interfering with our lives, and the obscene growth in government
that would have our forefathers turning over in their graves. Nobody thinks about it that much.
Nobody seems to give a crap. It's talked about every now and then. There was an op-ed last week
in the New York Times, somebody said something, but nobody seems to care.
And every president lies about it.
It doesn't matter whether a Republican or Democrat, Democrat or Republican.
It just gets worse.
And I just want to repeat a few things so you understand.
Every government dollar spent is our money.
Government does not produce any prime.
It does not produce anything. The lights in the White House, that's our money. And I can sit here for three hours with the list. And years ago, they decided to screw us and screw us badly. They realized to get elected, they need to spend and spend more. And even though every year, just about every year, we would send them record amounts of tax dollars. They
started slow and then they lifted off and they realized well hell we can get away with this and they went from a
little number to a less little number till they got to the point of 08 where they committed all kinds
of crimes in the financial business that was best friends with all the politicians so
nobody got indicted and they just came up with, what was it, $800 billion of our tax dollars and given to these people that committed the crimes? It was given to them. We saved their butts. What did we get out of it? Did we get anything in return? Nope. Nothing. Absolutely zero. And every time they raise the spending, they have this thing called baseline budgeting. It never goes backwards.
And then all of a sudden, I remember in 2009, Neil Cavuto says to me on Fox, Gary, trillion is going to be the new norm going forward.
And that's what we've been getting.
And it's sinister.
And it's sickening.
And I have to tell you, there are some people that are bigger culprits than other.
And remember, when I name names, it's nothing personal.
I don't know these people, but they work for us.
So I have to tell you, one of the people I follow most is Chad Pergram from Fox News.
The man is a human Google.
He's an encyclopedia on everything DC and everything that happens.
So I follow him on Twitter.
I've been interviewed by him.
We've gone back and forth a few times.
But whenever he posts something, it comes to me.
he also puts out these snippets reports and the man is just an absolute genius but what I'm about
to tell you was just that I got it through him and one of the biggest culprits of our debt
and deficits to the point and when I say this on TV I don't know if it gets through to anybody
one trillion of our tax dollars goes towards interest on the debt
$1 trillion
That's more than defense spending
$1 trillion
In the year 2000
Our all federal spending was 1.8
1 trillion
This year they're running a $2 trillion
Deficit
They're going to spend in the sixes
In the sixes
In 19 they only spent 4.4
Joe Biden
supersized
and got away with it
and amazing
I couldn't believe
Republicans signed off on it
but here's the sickening part
more than anything
that is the example
of what's going on there
and why I tell you know
I'm the biggest optimist on most of us
I'm the biggest pessimist on all of them
and I'm
100% sure I don't know if it's
20 years 10 years 5 years
next tomorrow, the debt's going to blow up in what form I don't know. But typically, you're going to
see interest rates just freaking go blow up to the upside and they're not going to be able to do anything
about it. And you know, they're just going to blame each other. But something stood out for me
today. And just so you know, oh, Gary, what does that have to do with markets? Everything
to do with markets. So I'm going to read something here. The hard right tried to bully Democrats into
draconian cuts as part of the top line spending plan. So in other words, there is somebody in the
Democratic Party that's, they're in negotiation right now on this spending bill, a new one,
draconian. Now, I have to tell you, as I sit here, the word draconian, I have an idea what it
means. But I'm actually going to go to it and get the exact meaning, harsh and repressive,
laws or rules that are really harsh and repressive. So there is somebody saying that Republicans
are being harsh and repression, draconian cuts to spending. That's Chuck Schumer,
who has been there for, I don't know, 90% of the debt, maybe more. The
federal budget deficit for the first quarter of $209 billion.
It's going to be $2 trillion this year.
And this corrupt lifer politician, and this is corruption, says Draconian.
They're going to spend $6-something trillion this year.
It went 194.4 trillion.
They're going to spend just about as much as they did the COVID years
when they had to raise the spending for all that stuff they did, the PPP.
And he's calling it traconian.
And here's the other problem.
The Republicans are supine.
Go look it up.
They act like they're doing big negotiations.
They signed off on the $6 trillion plus spending.
they signed off on it
and they told us how good it was
so we're just letting you know
I don't know the date
I'm letting you know
I don't know the number
I'm letting you know
and just so you know you have some
defenders
defenders
leftist Marxist spending defenders
in journalism saying
well you all been telling us
when 20 trillion, when 25 trillion, when 30 trillion, when now 34 trillion, it's not that bad.
Oh, it's bad.
One trillion in interest is hard dollars not going towards what's supposed to be good government.
And they're all going to be dead or retired, all the culprits.
The newbies are going to come in.
They ain't going to know what hit them.
The market's going to get crushed.
They're going to blame each other.
Whoever the president is at that time will get hit on it.
Up next, we'll put the bow tie on this nausea.
And then the markets.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only Investors Edge.
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the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly
I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon.
She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth just
whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.
And she replies with a low...
Listen.
So we sat there.
Listening.
That was the first time I learned that quiet
can feel full.
Hershey's.
It's your happy place.
It's time to switch on the integrator units
and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to...
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltball.
It doesn't get better than this.
And let me say these corrupt sleaze bags blame tax cuts.
Oh, it's the tax cuts that are causing the deficits.
Well, first off, let's be clear.
It's our money that goes to them.
They don't give us anything.
It's the tax cuts.
No, we're just paying them less because the amount we pay is just ridiculous.
They're going to get from us.
All they had to do was keep spending at 2019 levels, and we would have balanced the budget.
But this Marxist control freak in the White House, and listen, it's both parties, got away with it.
$400 billion is in one person's hands.
John Podesta, a democratic hack for climate.
$400 billion.
Do you think they've come out and said this is where it's going?
And I said to yesterday, I guarantee you the donors, the friends, the relatives, they're all up in Delaware, creating startup green energy companies and going to file applications to get grants from that $400 billion.
And when somebody gets $10 million and they go bankrupt, it's just a footnote and nobody gives a crap.
That's what it's come to.
That's what it's come to.
And imagine if I became president, just so you know, if I became president of the United States, and I said, okay, last year we spent $6 trillion and a $2 trillion deficit.
Ladies and gentlemen, I am proposing a budget of $5 trillion.
Guess what they do?
Oh, you hate the elderly, you hate children, you're taking food off their table, you don't care about the road.
and bridges and the grids.
You are slime and slees.
How dare you?
You mean person, you.
And they get away with it.
So Chuck Schumer pissed me off today.
And he's done it plenty of times.
By the way, we complimented him.
When he backed Israel in a very big way off of what happened October 7th.
We are unbiased here.
We just like good policy, logical stuff.
And he just nauseated us today.
Draconian cuts.
So we're going to raise spending $2 trillion,
and we're going to cut $100 million,
and it's draconian.
You get the point?
It is the greatest scam,
carn artistry, Ponzi scheme we have seen ever.
And I'm just letting you know it's them.
It's not you or I.
The problem, though, is I keep hearing,
will we vote them in? The problem is the next person is worse than the next.
Because the next person that gets voted in gets there and says, oh crap, I didn't realize.
Remember Trump? He was our savior.
I voted from the first time for one reason.
He came out and said, do you see these deficits? Obama's run?
Do you see what he did with Obamacare?
he said Obamacare, our premiums would go down, and he grubed us.
Go look at the video of Jonathan Gruber saying that Obama lied to the American public on Obamacare
in order to get it passed because the American public is stupid.
Go check the video out.
I kept arguing it's impossible for our premiums to go down if they're getting rid of pre-existing conditions
and put millions of people on insurance.
Who's going to pay for all that?
Well, we are.
The insurance rates have to go up
because if people have pre-existing conditions
that go in getting insurance,
who's going to pay for that?
Well, we did. They lied.
So Trump came in and said,
oh, hey, I'm Donald Trump.
You know, I'm Donald Trump.
I'm the greatest negotiator, the art of the deal.
and is so easy to cut the deficit and the debt,
and I am going to do it and I'm going to do it.
And, you know, I believed him.
I believed him.
And within weeks,
race spending monstrously,
do you know why?
The people in D.C. got a hold of him and said,
you want to keep this up?
You want to keep being elected?
He lied.
So he's in the same soup as the rest of him.
And then we got Biden.
and how this misfit, how this lifer, how this failure of a politician was able to get through this monstrous spending bill and get it done, just tells you how bad both parties are.
It tells you how bad the Republicans are and the moderate Joe Manchin.
So when you see a Republican also say, yeah, it's spending. I care about spending.
When I hear a Republican go on TV and he starts talking about spending in debt, I literally curse the TV.
I will curse the TV.
So I want you to remember this.
I wasn't even going to bring it up.
And then the Schumer quote came out and I just wanted to throw up because they're killing us.
They're this big gigantic headwind.
They are nothing without us.
We are the driving force.
We're the straw that stirs the drink.
When I hear the Fed's engineering this, that's a lie.
The Fed engineers nothing.
It is the 150 million of us that go to work every day to do better for ourselves and family.
It's the companies in technology with productivity improvements, medical research that's getting us to live longer because of great medical breakthroughs.
And on and on, they're killing us.
and I don't know how long we can fight them and beat them because they keep raising the nausea.
They keep raising the size of them.
There used to be a show called The Land of the Giants many, many years ago.
They're the giants and we're the little people stepping all over us.
You may not know that, but it's in the numbers.
you may not know that when Joe Biden says,
I gave the student loan borrowers a reprieve and their money.
No, we did.
We did.
And I've tried to tell you, Joe Biden could not get away with it.
If we went into our bank account today online,
it says $300 debit for student loan repayment.
Wait a minute, I don't have a student loan,
no, you're paying off somebody else.
else. But you don't see that so they're able to get away with it, but it's all us.
Joe Biden doesn't have a penny. His family's got 20 million from their corruption, and who knows
what he's got, but he doesn't have any money. It's us. And if he doesn't have enough,
$2 trillion in deficit. Two trillion. Hey, up next, we've got to do the markets. We're done with that.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Economic headlines keep shifting, but the uncertainty remains.
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One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow,
summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.
I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low,
listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.
Hershey's, it's your happy place.
just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Culpe
comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him by the way you
should know by now that when it does blow up we'll be ready markets don't just
top and crash they top out over time and we'll know it we'll see it we've got very
good eyes for it the market has no interest in it right now though as we
we have stated, starting, I believe, on the 20th of December, we started to get some ick.
A lot of little topping here and there.
Had a really good day yesterday.
But today, though some things shined, you know what we had again today?
One of those advanced decline days.
Remember, advanced declines on a daily basis, if they continue to be bad, even though the indices look
Good. It's because certain names are holding the market up. And the more days we have bad advanced declines, that's deterioration.
And before I give out the final numbers, on the New York today, 1305 up, 2674 down.
On the NASDAQ 1416 up, 2648 down. Just letting you know. On the day, the Dow was down 157.
S&P 7, but the NASDAQ up 14, NASDAQ 100, up 29, transports down 133.
You had a real strong day in this artificial Nvidia.
We already talked that in nauseam the last couple of days.
Finished up another 9 today, was up 20.
When you go up 40, 30, 50 points, you're going to pull back a little bit.
It's normal.
Something like Super Micro, SMCI, another AI play, was up 23 today.
You had some security software stocks, CrowdStrike, up 12,
up Palo Alto Networks, up 11.
You had some other semis, advanced microdevices, up another 2% plus and the like.
But if I look at my screens and they are all separated from each other, the oils.
What area have we been told you are in their own bearish phase?
oils. Well, the OIH was down another $7.60 today to $2.90. The XOP down at buck 66 to 133. The XLE 134 to 82.36. Oil's roughed up. And not a great stuff day. And for a change, and I don't see it as a biggie, financials had a rough day today. So financials had a rough day today. Pullback, we'll call it. And just remember, at the end of the week, we start a lot of
big financial reports. It's not the news. It's how they react to the news. And we'll just see
what happens. And you just had a lot of red today. Also want to mention the gold, unbelievable.
Still ain't happening. Gold looked ready to break out in his big yearly range. It's dead in its tracks.
The gold miners continued act like the south end of a northbound jackass. So not much
happening there. The story of the moment, though, semiconductors, tech, software, and the like,
have the bid. That's where a bunch of new highs are. And other areas now, a little bit of the,
what we call pullback mode. Where it stops, we'll see, which takes me into Boeing. Can I just say,
wow? And this is everything to do with the market. So in case you don't know,
There were, Boeing had some issues, and I believe it was, was it February of 20 or something like that?
There was some crashes and they had to take these 737 max off.
And there's different ones, ones in 900 and 800 and max of this or that.
What's amazing to me, the number one job, and we know this, of airliners and the airline makers and all them is are safe.
If we don't have safety, they're out of business.
It's simple.
That's all.
So Boeing has these planes and without, because we're going to find out eventually, you lost the door on a plane in Alaska air.
And luckily it was only at 16,000 feet and luckily nobody was in the seat.
It was rough enough where somebody's shirt came off.
stuff was sucked out somebody found an iPhone on the ground from the plane and was still working
that should if Tim Cook was smarty does a commercial just on that but now we're finding out
a bunch of these planes had loose bolts what how is it possible that an industry that's so
monitored have loose bolts
and last I've looked,
you're 35,000 feet,
the air is like 40 degrees below,
whatever, you probably don't want some loose bolts.
So let's be pissed off number one,
but let's be happy as all hell
that none of this caused a tragedy,
and the good news is out of this,
they're going to be a lot tougher on loose bolts going forward.
I can guarantee you every plane is being picked apart right now by whoever does these things.
And Boeing stock has paid a not the huge biggest price in history, but with 250 down to 225 in two days.
We'll call that $25 times $6, $15 billion in market cap.
and there's some other ones that are involved with this
what is the other one
I forgot the names that do business with them
anyway and Alaska Air I think
did that come down
nah not much
anyway just letting you know
and that's you just got to know what type of industry
you're in when you're in the markets
but this is an outlier event
Boeing needs to get their freaking act together
that's all I got to say
and by the way yes there are
certain levels of this oversight, but it starts at, you know, you don't shrug it off.
Oh, it's them.
No, it's not us.
It's them.
No, it's not us.
It's them.
Anyway, so bowing up down another three bucks.
We don't own any except we had little pieces transferred in the last week, and we'll see if it bounces or not.
The 10-year yields still sticking above 4%.
No biggie.
What was interesting to me today, oil prices up a buck 44, and oil stocks were trashed again.
Huh.
We don't own any oils.
Remember, we have this roadmap, and we know what bearish action, bearish patterns look like.
And I can tell you flat out, if you look at the OIH, which is the Oil Services ETF that represents a bunch of stocks, classic bearish action.
riding down the 50-day moving average, which is above it as it descends, not ascends.
The XOP, which is the explorers, just about the same.
The better of all of it, you had some better action in the big cap oils until three days ago when you had a big reversal,
and that's now below the descending 50-day also.
And the reason we follow this is because we want to remember it.
We always want to be studying bull and bare markets, what they look like, what they act like.
Because as we always say, if we are able to stay out of bare markets, we are so freaking way ahead of the game than anybody else.
You know, those people that say, oh, you can't time the market.
Oh, really?
Oh, really?
I'm glad they think you can't time the market.
Well, we certainly know how to stay out of bare markets,
and we'll just start with that before we even get into the other side
when we tell you this is leading, that is leading, this is leading, that is leading,
versus avoid this and avoid that.
So just let you know oils and just,
China. If you look at the FXI, which is a China exchange traded fund, just a slow death from about 11 months ago, with one rally up that looked like it had a shot that failed within 10 days in July.
but 90% of the time living below a slowly descending 50-day moving average as names like
Ali-Baba and Baidu and others and J.D. and others smoked.
But there's a couple of China names that are sticking out like a sore thumb.
I'm afraid to buy them, though.
A, the government.
But B, how do you buy one or two strong names in a country where the other A,
are a horror show. Up next, what else we got for you? I'm Gary. This is the one
only investors edge. The record U.S. debt, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and constant market swings.
Many people are rethinking how to protect their savings. Physical gold and silver have been
used for generations during uncertain times to diversify, not replace traditional investments.
Preserve gold helps Americans understand these options. Text eye heart to 505.0.000.
to get your free wealth protection guide and explore how precious metals may fit into your retirement
planning.
Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.
With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills
and confidence to move forward.
Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,
our programs are designed for people who never stop.
You bring the fire?
APU will fuel the journey.
Learn more at APU.
APUS.edu.
One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar
and suddenly I'm right back
sitting on the front porch
with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon.
She doesn't say much,
just breaks the bar in half
and hands me a piece.
I open my mouth to say
whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.
And she replies with a low,
listen.
So we sat there,
listening.
That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.
Hershey's.
It's your happy place.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Investors Edge with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks for being with us today, as always.
And we mean that sincerely.
We know your time is precious and we know you can be doing something else.
and we just want you to remember we really do not have any bias when it comes to what they're doing
we just believe in logic and we don't see R or D we see action we see reaction we see reaction
we see outcome we see intent and we really do believe and with all due respect for
those that love one side versus the other and that side versus the other
We think they all suck.
We think they're a bunch of con artists.
We think they're laughing at us.
We think they're sticking the middle finger at us.
And the numbers prove it all out, unfortunately.
Unfortunately.
And as we've said many times, we wish we can say otherwise.
We'd love to praise our leaders.
We'd love to.
find me one please so now we head into earning season oh by the way new yearly highs believe it or not
equal on the NASDAQ on the New York a little bit better on the New York but I will tell you
when you look underneath the surface at yearly highs there's a lot of dreck in there so there's
really more new yearly lows than New yearly highs news juniper's a buyout today but just to give
an idea of New Yearly Highs. I'm just going to mention a few. Merck in the Dow is actually a
new yearly high. Visa in the Dow New Yearly High. Slowboats, though. Boston Scientific and
Tiva Pharmaceuticals, guess what they are. Shopify. We're on the NYSE, by the way. Bank of New York's
New Yearly High. Progressive in Insurance, New Yearly High. NVIDIA. I think they may be on the New York
and the NASDAQ. I'm not sure. Glaxo, a drug company. Sincora.
drugs. I'm walking through here. Elf Beauty, ELF is the symbol, New Yearly High, Acuity
Brands. There had to be news on that one. I've got to go look that up. Urban Outfitters had
some news today, moved into New Yearly highs. But there's not that much. I will tell you that
as I go through. I mentioned Crowdstrike also. Z-scale, which is Z-S. That's one of those security
softwares that had a good move today.
CrowdStrike was upgraded today.
And on the NASDAQ, I got to tell you a bunch of real small biotechs, which I don't even
mention to you, I'm just not going to.
And by the way, there were a couple of no sales biotex bought out in the last couple of
days.
No kidding.
I sit and stunt.
Symbol H-A-R-P.
Hardly as any sales was bought out yesterday.
I've got to see who.
I'm not even sure who.
Doesn't matter.
Anyway, so there is some of that going on.
And just so you know, the reason why we pay attention to new yearly highs,
it's because that's where your strongest stocks are.
And we always want to know why.
So we get to earnings season.
So just so you have an idea what we do, first off,
we know coming into every week who's reporting earnings
and when. We also know what they're reporting, and I get it from different areas. Some are paid for
whatever. And the big day we got is Friday, because before the open is Bank of America, Black Rock,
Bank of New York City Group, Delta, J.P. Morgan, they are in the Dow. United Health's in the Dow in Wells
Fargo. And United Health is the highest price name, so that's the most important. And what we will know,
and before the open, we'll see pre-market.
So we'll see when they're opening.
We'll immediately go to the chart of it to see if it's meaningful on the open
because we're always looking for what we call breakaway gaps,
meaning a stock's been trading in a range for three months,
with a high of 100.
Every time it hits 100, it can't get through.
All of a sudden they report earnings.
The stock's up 14 bucks to 108.
Volumes heavy.
Earnings were up 40%.
They beat estimates by a good margin.
their guidance was good, guess what?
Oh, it's on our screen.
And of course, then there's the other side of the coin, the blow-ups,
and of course you just want to avoid those.
And typically companies that blow up are stocks that already aren't doing well
or have a decent reputation of blowing up in the past anyhow.
And as we go through earnings season, it gets tougher for us
because you have so many names.
And I can tell you I'm up about an hour earlier in the morning.
and pretty much what I have is this sheet of paper, this long legal pad, and I'm just writing down all the earnings and where they are.
And then I get this report, and this is the big report I get, and it's so important, the biggest movers percentage-wise, both up and down off of the earnings.
And then I immediately go to my little Thompson machine and see where the stock's trading in the aftermarket or before the market.
and we just start preparing ourselves.
And that's it.
Intensive work at it.
And all we can tell you, over time, the greatest winners are the companies with the strongest earnings and revenue growth that beat Wall Street estimates consistently.
And the longer they beat and the longer they have the strongest earnings and revenue growth, typically the better they are as far as stocks.
are concerned. Simple as that. You can go on the greatest winning stocks over the last five years,
10 years, 15, 20. They all had one thing in common, and that is monstrous growth of their business.
And that's why I've been whining and complaining to about some stocks that have done well in the last year
that their business is down 50%. And you ask yourself the question, what the heck's going on there?
Typically like a micron we've been mentioning. Now, it tells you that,
things are going to get better, but really that much better after the business gets cut in half.
So this is what we're always pondering, always looking at during earnings time.
I pretty much before and after the market, well, I got to do radio show, intensive going over of all these.
And we also know which companies are the most important, mean the most to the market and the market conditions.
and then as always we close our eyes, hold our nose and pray,
which as we always say doesn't work.
We tried it.
So we just work hard at it.
Anyway, you have a great evening.
What's it, Tuesday?
Drive carefully.
I'm heading for London on Friday.
And some other places.
We'll let you know.
And when you get home, do like we do.
It's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Stay well, be well.
same time tomorrow really appreciate your time good night all bye bye this has been investors edge
with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to
gary k dot com that's gary k dot com success starts with your drive and american public university
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