Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - MARKET STILL SETS UP WELL
Episode Date: June 8, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
Thursday, June 8th, 2020.
And as we have said to you for a bit, do not believe the boo birds.
We just want to start with that.
We watch, we listen.
But the only thing that matters to us, we're going straight into the markets.
The only thing that matters to us is price, patterns, patterns.
performance, uptrends, downtrends, emergence, submergence, and it's still not easy.
I can flat out tell you I left some good money on the table in recent weeks by selling a couple of things too early.
A couple of things I sold well.
Other things I've held.
So it's not easy.
but when main trends come, when the market's yelling and screaming, the right way, of course, the right way is always going up, right?
You get my point.
The perma bears will stay perma bears.
When the market craps out, the perma bulls will stay perma bulls and they'll get run over.
Let me explain what I mean.
and nothing personal
and we never name names
there are people out there
that in Bullabare markets
constantly in on date everyone with
well in 1974
the moon went over Venus
I'm being a little sarcastic
and whenever the moon goes over Venus
a year from now the market is not higher
90% of the time.
Now that's not exactly what they say,
because they use market stats.
The problem with that is we were getting inundated from these people
throughout the whole bare market,
while things were getting destroyed,
while things were getting trashed,
every day sent out.
Oh, we know this is down so-and-so,
but when this happened,
the last eight out of ten times, they forget to tell you two times it didn't work.
And they trashed you unless you listened to the market.
Now we're in bullish mode.
The broad market woke up last week.
And as we've said to you, whether or not it continues, we take it day by day.
Simple as that.
We'll let the market be our guide.
We'll look for change.
We're always saying to you.
Last week was classic.
For it was months.
We had said to you, avoid all these areas.
Last Wednesday, we just, little wake-up call.
We have this little inkling that the broad market may be changing here.
Not sure yet.
And then Thursday, we were unimprone.
impressed, even though it was a good day, but then Friday gave us some real good confirmation.
This week, Monday and Wednesday, today a little bit of a pullback in the broad market,
but we'll call it a no biggie because as we read it, things have turned a little bit.
And we'll stay on top of it every day.
So now what I'm seeing is the boo birds, the opposite.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
The market's too expensive.
Don't buy it.
They're telling you that.
Valuations are too high.
Don't buy it.
It's a mania again.
Don't buy it.
Earnings aren't good enough.
Don't buy it.
And things I've been telling you, savings rates of plunge, credit card usage of skyrocket, commercial real estate, that's trouble,
commercial lending, that's troublesome.
I can think of 30 or 40 different things to tell you
why the market should be crushed from here.
Why it should be at 3,000 S&P, not 4,200.
But the only reason why is because the market's better.
The floor is picked up.
It's just plain old better.
and until I'm able to say to you the opposite of what I said last week,
oh, I think, I think, I think, I think.
You got to ignore the boo birds.
And man, they're out in droves.
I'm hearing people still talking about inflation.
In June of last year, we told you inflation had topped.
June of July, last year is when we said to you it's topped.
from very high levels, and we never know how good it's going to get, well, good, how much farther, and it's come down.
And you know that because interest rates have performed better.
And the idiots are giving Powell credit for it.
He's the one who caused it.
He's not doing anything.
Inflation's coming down because people don't want to pay the higher prices, so prices come down.
That's how it works.
So we're just letting, you know, and by the way, these people that have been,
bullish all the way down are patting themselves on the back, which means going forward, they get
absolutely no credibility in my mind. Maybe I'm a nobody, but I think I count for something.
They get absolutely no credibility ever again because the one thing we do not like is charlatans.
I know people in this business that have been wrong plenty of times and they tell you,
wrong is not bad
wrong is not bad
you got to learn from wrong
I didn't want to mention
one of the two of the stocks that I sold before
it ran up
I didn't lose any money
but I certainly left a bunch on the table
I was wrong
and you know what I do
I beat the hell out of myself every day
on why did I do that
yet these people
are patting himself on the back
because the broken clock was right choice a day.
So it's imperative.
It's important.
Watch the market.
And all I can tell you, it still acts well.
Notwithstanding yesterday, you had a real bad day in the NASDAQ.
And we said to you, we don't know whether it lasts one day or a while.
And it bounced pretty decent today.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
On the other end, the broad market, not so great today,
but it was quiet.
It was controlled.
Some things pulled back.
The financials were down early, finished decently.
That's what you want to see.
The S&P looks like it may want to break out of range again.
And that's all we know.
And that's why.
And that's why we drown out the rest of that crap.
And I have to tell you also, you know, there's certain people we listen to.
One of them just passed away Sam's out.
brilliant man but we listen to Stanley Drunkenbiller one of a great money managers of all time guess what
he's been wrong but Steve Cohen came out three weeks ago and said the market's going to keep going
higher he's been right so you never know you just watch the market and believe me when I say
Stanley Drunken Miller's been wrong he ain't going to stay wrong for long he's that damn good
that because I just noticed the charlatans out. I notice the boo-birds out. And all we want to do
is pay attention what the market's telling us. And we'll go through a few things here today.
But really not much wrong with today. You know what I look for right now in the markets?
Is anything breaking down? And you know what's happening? Very few. That tells me a bit.
Now we off to the race as well
I don't like that term anyhow
Because markets are better to stair step
So I hope I got my message across to you
I got a call from a client today
That wanted to add into the market
Because he said he saw people on TV
I will cover that up next
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Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
So, part of why I brought all this up, I got a call from a client and he's had this good, pretty good fun for a long time.
and it's I think it's still down 19% in two years, which is not that bad actually, and wants to add more.
And I just asked why. He said, well, people on TV, I go, who? He goes, well, people are saying that we think there's no recession, this, that. I go, but what if they're wrong?
And he took a second, you know, and whatever. And I said, don't worry. If we buy it, I'll be watching the market for you. And if the market craps out again, I'll be yelling at you.
But I was just trying to send the message, just a simple.
message, opinions don't matter. You think my opinion matters? It's the market that matters. The market is
reality. The market's always right. When the meme stocks were skyrocketing at any given point in time,
that was the market. That was real. We can always look forward to the point of saying, wait a minute.
hold on
Rivian is a $160 billion market cap
just below GM and Ford but has no sales
but GM and Ford have 260 billion sales
oh we know it's going to be crushed just based on that
that was an outlier
move but some of these things that are on the move right now
because of artificial intelligence
all I'm hearing is there
oh ridiculous
all I'm hearing is oh they're too expensive
you know what they're right
but in 1999
when they were too expensive, the internet stocks,
and they went up fivefold from there.
So we pay attention to the market.
Just a little message from your handsome and buffed host.
And by the way, had a better day with his back today.
The story is when I sit and get up,
it like crunches the nerve or whatever,
and that's where the big pain comes in.
So I'm out most of the day.
So I sat down a few times just didn't get.
I wanted to see because I felt better.
and it was all good.
And then I got in the car.
And then I got up.
And it did not hurt.
Ten seconds later, buckled over.
But definitely, I think, I'm not going to jinx it, but hopefully I'm on the mend.
What do they say, time, patience, steroids, the wonder drug, just don't take too many.
We're up, I think we're near 800 emails.
And by the way, the winner on these emails,
is tens.
I don't even know what tens is,
but I guess it's something that you attach to yourself.
And it's like, what, maybe electrodes.
I'm going to look it up, I haven't done.
I'm going to do all my work on the weekend.
Number two in the second behind tens is acupuncture.
That's the second thing I get recommended.
The third thing I've got recommended is the inversion thing.
And then I got some people that are really.
really nice, that looked up Orlando the best people to see, that they knew them.
I think a Cairo in one city told me about one here.
So thanks again.
I appreciate you all caring.
All right.
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No complaints except it was one of those narrow days where the indices were up decently, but the advanced decline sucked.
But that's okay.
Maybe the opposite happens tomorrow.
Dow is up 168.
In the Dow today, Boeing.
I'm just going to mention Boeing has been the six-month trading range and close to moving above that whole freaking trading range.
Volume was heavy today.
Boeing should be on your watch.
It's on mine.
Apple was up almost three today.
Held support.
Salesforce.com was up almost four today.
That needs a little more work.
McDonald's, which was gagging.
It was up today, almost four.
And United Health, in that group, which is spastic, that was up eight today.
And there were a few other things in the Dow,
but nothing really bad,
except Visa in the Dow.
Visa and MasterCard are under pressure because
government is talking about their fees
and that they make too much
and this, that, and the other thing.
So that was a little bit weak.
Now, with the Dow Ponce declines
were only 20 to 18 on the New York.
The NASDAQ bounced nice from yesterday.
They up 133 and the NASDAQ 100 up 181.
Advanced declines were 21 to 20.
What does that tell you?
Broad a market less today.
What does that tell you?
Well, guess what was up today?
Nvidia.
Adobe announces that their investor day,
artificial intelligence up the wazoo goes up 20 bucks.
Broadcom up 10.
Tesla up 11.
Some of the big names.
did the trick today.
Transports were down five.
Mid caps were down, small caps were down.
Semiconductors are up 1%.
New highs haven't looked at them yet,
but better than new lows right now.
That's good to see.
Oil prices were down, yields were down,
and a decent day.
Could have been better.
Could have been better.
But the big stuff on the move.
And Tesla,
is getting juice again.
Coming up the right side of a big, wide and loose, whatever you want to call it.
And I will tell you the short sellers in that are probably scared out of their wits.
How many shorts are out there?
Hmm.
There's a 100 million share short on Tesla.
It's a big float, though.
And all they have to do is come out with any little bit of news when it's ripe,
and it goes. I've been in that stock a few times and that's how it works. And right now it's
pretty darn good, pretty darn strong. Other than that, I just want to repeat. I just want to
repeat. Pay attention to the markets. Everything else is noise. And when I say to you about
what others say.
I'm just very protective
of you,
me, the industry.
And we're full
of a bunch of jokes
out there. And that's unfortunate.
And again,
I'll never mention who.
You get to decide for yourself.
But the market looks ripe, and let me give you
some numbers here. S&P 500.
If it can
above, well, you
you're getting close to 4,300.
You're in seven points.
That's the highs of the last week.
But the old high for the year, just one year,
435 from last August,
more than likely.
Up next, more on these markets.
News of the day, whatever else today.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investors edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day.
or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally,
if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts
about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
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Nice.
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From takeout to ride shares, entertainment, and more.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbaum.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
By the way, are you guys getting a bunch of spam calls?
I think I'm like the king of spam calls now.
I can't even answer my phone.
And it looks like right numbers.
And I'll answer.
This is AT&T.
Oh, this is DirecTV.
Oh, this is your Medicare payments hotline.
So I just stopped.
If they don't leave a message, screw them.
It's spam call city.
You know, the other day I mentioned to you about scams
where people are getting calls and they hear their son's voice on the phone.
I'm in jail and I need money.
Somehow they're people able to pick up voices.
So I mentioned that whole scam to you.
I just saw on ABC this morning, an 83-year-old lady,
nine grand she handed over
and the guy actually came to her house
first came for the house for three grand
she gave him three grand in cash
about the son
is in jail because
hit a pregnant woman
that's number one and then she gets a
call later oh the women died
and if you don't hand over 6,000
and she gave him 6,000
she came to the door 9,000
then all of a sudden she realized
maybe I should call
and she called and found that it was BS
They actually went to our house and picked up the cash.
Now, the guy's going to get arrested, the Yuts.
She had like one of those ring doorbell things.
So the video was on there.
But it's amazing that these things, people fall for this stuff.
And just remember why these people do it.
Because it's been working.
So be careful.
I was on TV today and got lots of email on my TV.
appearance. I didn't even know I was going to be asked about crypto. I was asked about crypto.
About do I consider it when I am talking about technology, stocks and things like that?
And I said, no, I do not even think of it in any type of realm. I think it's nothing but a joke.
And the lucky thing for these people that have Ethereum and Bitcoin is that it's owned by a select few people.
So it stays, it's not going anywhere.
And it's just going to trade here and there.
But the big point is they came out with 23,000 coins over the last years.
These are people just trying to make the next Bitcoin.
You remember the Doji coin.
It came out at zero.
And it came out as a joke.
They even said it.
It was a joke.
It went from zero to 70 cents.
I'm looking at the price now.
Doge coin price.
It's still 6.8 cents, down from 70.
But I said it's a classic bubble.
And people, look, whatever people were trying to do,
Dennis Rodman came out with a pot coin.
The Miami people came out with the Miami coin,
went down 97%.
All this talk about the dollar going away and Bitcoin's going to be.
And there are still people, God bless you.
Live and die by it.
They're on Twitter.
They're out there.
Absolutely live and die by it.
That's where my money is.
That's what I'm doing.
And they've lost their asses.
Excuse my French, but I'm making a point here.
And that's not really French.
They lost their arses.
And they still are at it.
And they're still telling you.
And they're still pleading with you.
And they're still preaching with you.
Bitcoin this, Bitcoin that.
You got that Kathy Wood from the,
ARC funds saying a million by 2030, which I'm going to hold my tongue on her.
And then she changed it million to a million and a half.
Somebody's going to have to pay $999,99.99 for Bitcoin for it to get to a million.
And based on what?
Somebody tell me anybody.
Tell me what a value is on the Bitcoin or the Ethereum.
Tell me. Why should it trade it $1,000 or $10,000 or $500,000 or $100,000? What would be the reason? Not one of these people would ever answer my question. What would be the reason it would trade at $100,000? The only answer would be because somebody would pay $99,99,99.99. Because when I tell you, well, let me just pick a stock.
Let me pick one out.
I can tell you right now that J.P. Morgan pays a $4 dividend.
You're going to get $2.84 a share.
I can tell you that J.P. Morgan in the last four quarters earned, well, did $74, $130, $190 billion in revenues, made $6, $9, $13.30, $1.30, $1.30, $1.00, $1.30, $1.5.
a share in earnings times 2.9, how many shares, billion?
They made a lot of money.
And I can tell you it trades it this multiple versus its history, versus the norm,
versus what banks usually trade at.
Nobody can answer the question on the coins.
Why would it be valued at this level?
Not one. No backing, nothing. It's just what somebody's willing to pay. Now, I think Bitcoin Ethereum and some other coins will probably be here forever. And maybe it has its day in the sun where it rallies up, comes. But nobody can tell me why, except somebody willing to pay. They said Bitcoin would be accepted everywhere. It's not. Why? Too much volatility. Once it start getting accepted in different places, guess what happened?
It dropped 40%.
So if I'm selling somebody a car and getting paid in Bitcoin
and I don't cash in that Bitcoin quick,
holy crap, I'm losing my you know what.
What ended up happen was I got a ton of emails today cursing me out.
Yeah, yeah, and believe it or not,
they weren't fake emails like some people do.
And I just respectfully, listen,
there's no reason to curse me out
because if you think it's going much higher,
you should love me.
because people that doubt something going higher and it still goes higher,
you should love me.
Doubt is what brings higher prices in anything and everything.
And that's what I wrote back.
And one other person cursed me out one other time,
but the rest were pretty cool.
Anyway, I just want to let you know the thought on that.
And people are still so, wow, wow, wow.
Wow.
And just remember, they brought out
23,000 coins with the weirdest
names and some of them
still trade decently.
But they're all down. Just so you know,
we coined the phrase.
When all said and done, 90% of the coins
would drop 90% or more with most going
to zero with some things standing.
It's exactly what happened.
And we watch
Bitcoin and Ethereum just
for whatever on a technical
basis. And who knows?
knows. I think I traded it once and I think I lost 10 cents. Anyway, they trade below the 50-day
move and average. They're kind of dormant. They definitely off the lows of December, but still way,
way down from the highs in 21. And I will promise you, we'll let you know if they ever get juice
again. We'll let you know. But man, oh man, dudes, you need to go look back at how much money's
been lost on these bubbles. I'm just absolutely destroyed in so many areas that we've covered
from soup to nuts for you. Absolutely destroyed. Earth shaking. Change your life destroyed.
I know people that had money with some of these outfits that went to zero overnight and they had
all their money in there and they're never getting it back. I know people, smart people that
laughed at me that bought NFTs that are worthless. You know the NFT business. I read about one. Somebody
paid a million and a half bucks for something. They couldn't get 150 bucks for it. People lost their
minds. And I know there's a there is a man I want to be rich and they see things around them
and they hear people talking. Up next, news of the day.
whatever else today. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists
to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloated.
chronic stomach aches.
Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach
cake every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut,
you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
With the Venmo debit card, a taco in one hand, and ordering a ride in the other means you're stacking your rewards.
Nice.
Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash on your favorite brands when you pay with your Venmo debit card.
from takeout to ride shares, entertainment and more.
Pick a bundle with your go-tos and start earning cash back at those brands.
Do more stash, get more cash.
Venmo-stash bundle terms and exclusions apply.
See terms at Venmo.com.
Max-100 cash back per month.
Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz.
Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours.
The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation,
temporary dim or dark vision, headaches and eye redness.
Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you.
Learn more at Viz.com.
You're listening to
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Investers Edge with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
And just remember, everything we talk to you about,
we just care about every dime you have.
We care about every dime we have,
regardless whether you do or not.
And as always, you get to decide.
side. We're not here to tell you what to do. We're here to tell you what we think. In the news,
remember what I told you about the reporting of the news? That very often the reporters report the
news after it's already happened, and that's when you usually have a turn. Remember last week
when I said to you one of the main reasons I brought it up to you was because of that reason. People
were reporting the narrow markets like people that never reported them and pundits that never
talked about them all of a sudden were out in droves early last week saying narrow markets the
broad market sucks these are things we were telling you the broad market sucked for eons yeah
eons they're now doing it with commodities here you go commodities slide is investors bet on economic
slowdown. Commodities have been sliding since January for six months. Oil prices topped out a year ago.
That's when we told you inflation topped. Oil prices topped out a year ago. And now they're
reporting. So we're going to watch commodities here. By the way, that's how. That's how.
it works time and time again and this is no rib on the reporters it's just they report the news
late it's just how it works oil topped the year ago and they're telling us now the headline
i want you to understand this this is ammo for you here's the article just this week commodity
slide as investors bet on economic slowdown you ready for this cotton topped out
last June. Copper topped out March of 22. Wood topped out June of 21. Corn
topped out June of 22. Wheat topped out March of 22. Soybeans topped out June of 22. And now it's
getting reported that commodities are sliding. So we're watching commodities. And that's how it works.
Doubt it's 100% of the time, but that's how it goes. Other news, just letting you know,
ultra-long-range electric cars are arriving. Say goodbye to charging stops. We drove 1,000 miles across
two countries without stopping just the charge, thanks to a new class of electric vehicles.
Now, they did have to say they were $138,000 electric vehicle, but by Lucid, there are some lower
price ones supposedly coming out in the years ahead. By the way, it's called the Lucid Grand Touring,
and of course, mileage may vary. Anyway, there's also a 500-mile luce is thinking.
You really can't go 500 real world miles, but you get the point.
So just letting you know, that's going to get better as we move forward, don't know who wins.
And I thought that was an important thing to tell you.
Because I'm not so sure people know that.
You know what?
I'm not even going to discuss Joe Biden today.
And then this, Paul Krugman, New York Times, man I loathe.
don't know him personally, but he's a Marxist, leftist hack of the New York Times.
Actually, has the nerve to do an article, an op-ed, the case of the disappearing debt disaster.
That all of a sudden the debt ceiling gets done.
He's one who's been said, it's okay, we can go to $30 trillion of debt.
It's everything's fine.
Forget the hard dollars that a trillion of our tax dollars are going towards interest.
Everything's a-okay.
It's just so depressing.
He's a Nobel economist, this guy who loves debt.
That's okay.
It's all good.
By the way, debt's bad on the Republican.
It's good under a Democrat with these hacks.
Anyway, it's, and herein lies the problem.
Therein lies the problem.
That's how you get the $32 trillion of debt.
Hacks like that.
I don't even know what to tell you.
you and there's your news of the day oh you know what here's another one investors have soured
on china's stocks renewing fears about economy you know how long china stocks have been to bear
markets forever the fx i topped out in uh february of 21 it's down cut in half so we're
gonna watch china too a lot of this is going on kids
and we'll let you know.
All we can tell you at the end of the day today, another good day.
Could have been better, could have been worse.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
You have a good evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Tomorrow, I'll be on with the great, the icon, Neil Cavuto,
noon hour, Fox Business Network,
and same time tomorrow here. Have a great one, everybody. Thanks for joining us.
Peace out. Bye-bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in
contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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