Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - MARKETS CLOSED Jan 1, 2024 [Holiday Episode]

Episode Date: January 1, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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You can reach Gary now at 877 747-Eadge. That's 877 747-33.33. Here is your home. Gary Colbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host. Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you are here, ladies and gentlemen. Always happy that you are listening. You know, we've been getting a lot of emails from people.

Gary, you're playing the same holiday shows. You're playing the same shows. when you happen to be maybe traveling, that you've been playing for a couple of years. Can you do us some justice and put together some other shows when you are traveling or when it's a holiday?

Well, I've listened to you, I have heard you, and today is one of those shows. We have put together topics that we think are quite topical at this moment in time. We're not putting a date on today's show, but you'll get the gist. Today on the show, we're going to be covering central banks. And why they are so much more important now than they have been in the past,

then we'll be talking. bubbles and what they look like, how they feel, why they occur, and how they end. We're going to talk about earnings and the importance of gaps when companies report earnings, gaps both up and down. Other things we'll be discussing today in the markets, sectors, cousin stop. What's a cousin stock? We'll explain. And a little bit on relative strength, because ladies and gentlemen, we think there are just too many definitions out there on what relative strength is in the markets.

We will strip away all the myths and explain. So again, we thank you for being here on this day. It's either a holiday or we are out. and where do I want to start today? And it's something we've talked about a lot. We never really used to have to talk about it. Many years ago, central banks, their job was simplistic. Meet every month and not do much.

Seriously. Many years ago, there were no central bank people talking in between meetings. It was frowned upon. And then came the mid-90s. For some reason, they decided they needed to be famous. They needed to be out there. All well and good, but something else happened. See, back in the late 90s, there was a gentleman by the name of Alan Greenspan,

who believed in easy money policies. And at that time, all it meant was lowering interest rates. and keeping them down, but not to zero percent. I still remember when being easy was when they would take the Fed Fund's rate down from 4% to 3 and a quarter, over a six-month period. And that was real easy. And then came Bernanke.

And we watched how we went easy and easier. And in that time, a bubble was created, one of the biggest bubbles in history. That being the housing bubble. And Mr. Bernanke didn't know it was coming, didn't have an idea it was coming, didn't see it coming, when it came, did not know it was here, and not until everything blew up, did he acknowledge it, and what did he do? He did something we have not seen before. He immediately ramped down interest rates down to 0%. Zero percent.

Zero percent. Now, these interest rates are important. Why? Because loans are based on it. Debt is based on it. And asset prices also work off of them. You ever heard the line, don't fight the Fed? When the Fed is easing, markets usually do better,

but what happens when the Fed goes down to 0%? Well, you saw what happened. Markets bottomed and started rallying. But something else then happened, something we never even dreamed of. I certainly never dreamed of it. Ben Bernanke decided, and they would not use the terminology. But we did. and that is they started printing money.

Now, do they actually print money? No, they press buttons and create money. And they took that money that was created out of thin air and bought up our government bonds. And the goal in mind was to get interest rates as far down as possible, not only on the short end, but on the long end. The thought process being, if interest rates come down, the cost of the cost.

of capital to do everything and be everything come down, and that would spur on economic growth. But there's repercussions. A, savers get zero. Who gets the difference? The banks. Fair? Well, we'll let you decide if that's fair. The other part of the equation is it kind of screws up the markets. You know, markets are supposed to be between buyers and sellers based on fear and greed. Desperation or inspiration. Strength versus weakness. And they interfered. No longer was there a two-way trade.

They bought up everything in sight. And thus interest rates came way down. And fast forward into the 2014 to where the Fed had printed $4.5 trillion. $4.5 trillion. Not many can put their hands around that type of number. And that's on top of 0% interest rates. And markets reacted and reacted well. But along the way, every time the Fed stopped printing money, the markets corrected. And every time the markets corrected, the Fed did something new. You remember, QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, I'm still not sure what that was. QE3, the mother of all printing of money, $85 billion a month.

But what happened was they started to lose a lot of credibility and recognized we got to change a little bit. So they came off their printing of money, slowly but surely. And markets started to hang in there until markets started to get in trouble. and what did they do? They found some friends. Japan, Europe, China. And in a coordinated effort in late 2014, Japan announced a trillion in change, Europe announced the trillion in change,

and then China, the supposed miracle of Asia, realized that they were heading south. They started easing big time, and guess what happened to their markets? They soared. They copy Ben Bernanke since markets soared here. They now soar over there to the point where it doesn't matter what country it is. The communist paradise of Venezuela in early 2015 saw their stock market soaring even though inflation is 60-70 percent there.

Thus the big, humongous central bank intervention. But the issue is, what is it created? We know easy money was, in part, created in 1999, which led to 2000 to 2003. We know in big part, easy money led to 2007, 2008. And now we have, I wouldn't even call it the mother of all easy money. I would call it the universe of all easy money. Things we couldn't fathom around the globe, zero percent interest rates, five trillion dollars of negative interest rates, and $14 trillion of printing money,

and still going strong. So what are the repercussions? What are the ultimate repercussions? Are there repercussions? We'll head right into that up next. Thank you for being here on this special day. I'm Gary. This is the one and only investors' edge.

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Investor's Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge on this special show today. It's either a holiday or we're caught up somewhere traveling in the outer parts of Mongolia or something like that. And as always, we are pleased to be with you. So we started off talking central banks and just realize when we save $14 trillion of money printed,

that's going into the asset prices. It bubbles things up. The worry is what are the ultimate repercussions? Because the real definitions of bubbles or the causes of bubbles are easy monetary policy combined with asset prices going up and then at a certain point in time, greed and the desperation of not being in overtakes things. Back in 99, it was in the Internet and tech space and some big, big cap things. I still remember Walmart, GE, and a few others had 60 times earnings,

even though they were growing at 10, 15 percent at the time. And we all know what happened. And then we all know what happened in 2007 where in housing, true story, people would actually line up in a tent two days in advance for a supposed condo that was going to be built in Miami to plunk down a deposit and then put it up for sale

as soon as they signed the document and within a week would sell it and make 25 or 50 grand it worked for a while but of course once price and value get too stretched, eventually things give, things cave. And we all know what happened at that point.

So easy money met, greed, and desperation. And now we get to the point where we've seen markets, no bear markets for many years, no corrections for many a moon. And we mean 10% and stay down. for a while, have none of it. Why? Because every correction is met by central bank talk, central bank teasing, or central bank intervention, which calls into question, are we in bubbles?

Well, we've already known from the past that valuation will eventually matter. The question is, in the biotech space, Why didn't it matter when biotex for two to three years come public and soar to valuations anywhere from $200 million to $8 billion? And all the companies have one thing in common. They didn't even have sales. Some of the companies were just development stage, not even in trials. And of course, all brought to you by the wonderful human beings at the, at the, investment banks. That's bubbles. When you have a bond market in corporate land where you

have bonds that used to yield 9% now yielding 3.5, that's bubbles. When you have monstrously debt-laden countries that have negative interest rates, that's bubbles caused by interference. Just remember, economics 101 in bond land states. the more debt you have, the more your debt is out of control, the more you should be paying your lenders. Are there lenders right now? If central banks are buying up all the stuff, the lenders, the people that want to buy the bonds get crowded out. But when they do buy, they're getting yields much lower than the norm, prices much higher than the norm, which equates back to stock markets.

And not everything has to be in bubbles at once. In 2000, housing stocks were at one-time's earnings. They actually bottomed when the market topped. So all we do is sit back and we just think about what's the norm? Is it normal to have a biotech company with an $8 billion market cap that has no sales? Of course not. When in the past have we seen something like this and what happened? Well, in 1999, you had a bunch of dot-com companies that had no sales with those types of market caps.

And what was the outcome? Oh, 80% drop, 90% drop, bought out for pennies on the dollar, or just flat out gone to zero. That's the precedent that we always tend to look at. thus we always worry about what we are seeing we've always thought that markets were between buyers and sellers at specific prices that they wanted to do business at not anymore Japan has admitted they have used their own printed money by the way Japan very debt-laden they use their own printed money to buy up stocks they've admitted it Our central banks haven't, and they say they don't want to be audited.

We already know they've interfered with the income markets, the bond markets, because they had to admit it. They were out front and center. So the worry is we're in the midst of another bubble. Now, as we talk right now, we're not sure what date you're listening to, and it may be a few months down the road from when we are talking, and things may have already occurred. We'll see. So use this show as a broader thought process on central banks and bubbles.

And let's keep fingers crossed that we're not. We aren't. We haven't been in a 99-type atmosphere. Now, let me be clear. bubbles are great as they're going up you want to harness them we do not use the term bubble badly while things are working oh but we use it badly when things top when the music stops so we will always be watching closely because the biggest money is lost when everybody is at their greedy at the most ridiculous price structures out there when everybody believes nothing can go wrong

that this is going to go on forever Warren Buffett once said beware of the naked man when he comes out of the ocean when the surf drops and the tides roll in Let's hope there's no naked men out there, ladies and gentlemen. Sorry to give you that picture. Up next, we'll move a little forward. I want to talk about the importance of earnings, relative strength, and other stuff. Thanks for being here today. Thank you.

I'm Gary. This is the one in only investors' edge. The world isn't getting any calmer. Economic instability, global conflicts, and record national debt have created an environment where financial uncertainty is a part of everyday life. And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts

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Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there,

listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place. John it's feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbub. It's highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

Today, we are either climbing Mount Everest or it's a holiday. That's today's show. Every now and then we have special show, educational shows. That is one of those days. Thanks for joining us today. We've talked about central banks. We've talked about bubbles, the potential for them, what they look like, how they feel. How did they end?

We'll give you the typical. You'd never really know how they're going to end, but typically they end at their noisiest. Really tough to define the word noisiest, but you'll get a feel. when it happens. It's when everyone's talking about it. Everyone's speaking about it. Front page or front cover of news week and time and all that type of stuff. That's when you typically will know. Get ready if it ever does occur. That's all. Just very, very noisy. Then, technically, how did they trade? There'll be very very extended from their move, everybody will think nothing will go wrong, and then all the sudden you'll have this one big, gigantic down day from the highs on monstrous volume.

That'll be the day where the balloon popped. But that doesn't necessarily be the day that it's over and done, because typically what will happen is you'll get a rally back up to the highs. That's the rally that gets everybody saying, we're fine we're good no sweat but then what happens

you get another big down day and it's the oi-ve moment what does this mean can't be and then you'll get another big rally up near the highs and you'll get another told you so we're fine

but those big swings are a sign that the sellers are now involved and are part of the equation. And it's at that point in time where you start getting what we call the slow, unnoticed drip. Then you'll break the first low

and then potential for waterfall type action. Action that's uncontrollable never stops. You think it has to come back, and yet it doesn't. And then you're down 30, and you're thinking, eh, it had a big move, it's just got to be a correction. Then 40, and then 50, and then you won't know what hit you. And in the case of whatever you're in that has no sales,

once they're down 80, you basically say, I don't care if it goes to zero now. That's the cycle. So please pay attention. Moving on. We talk about it all the time. Earnings. What does a company make during a quarter?

What's the net income? Unfortunately, net income is pretty much a naked number. You can't play with it. Earnings per share, you can play with it. It is very often now where companies do big, buybacks on purpose, use lower tax rates on purpose, shift assets from here to there, up and down and all around, contracts into one quarter to the next, and then you got what we call a lot of non-gap earnings. That's generally accepted accounting principles. Well, anyway,

The key to us and what we do is not just the numbers. It's how things react to the numbers. So we are always watching for the great beat reaction to an earnings report, whether it's great to the upside or great to the downside. A big gap off of earnings is the most significant sign of accumulation or distribution by the big boys because, A, if it's on the upside, demand for stock is such that they close something at 80 and has to open at 87 because things were so darn good. Or demand for selling is so big that it closed at 80 and opened at 72 because things are headed south. And we are just letting you know from our studies of the past in markets that are just,

range bound find those companies that have the strongest reaction to earnings reports in the best technical shape and typically for the most of the rest of that quarter they will tend to lead and lead well so we're always in gear with that now keep in mind what you look for in these gaps is a on the first day that it gaps there's not a lot of give back B, after the gap, it either keeps going or starts sitting tight or has nominal pullbacks on lighter volume indicating the buying is just petered out for now and we're just waiting for the next round of buying, which could be days or just weeks away. Conversely, we always get the question, what if I own a stock that gaps down in a bad way? it sort of depends. It depends on the company.

It depends on what they said. Depends on the market. Keep in mind, a significant amount of gaps to the downside may mean something about the market, as well as gaps to the upside, meaning something good about the market. We're just letting you know, this is first and foremost,

the things we watch for during earning season. And if you have a chance, go back five years and study all the earnings gaps to the upside and see how well they did, one quarter out, two quarters out, even a year out, because sometimes that gap is the start of something really good going on. Now, in bad markets, in bare markets, you're not going to get a lot of great gaps. to the upside. Markets usually cap those things. In good markets,

yeah, you'll get things gap into the downside. You always will, but typically less so. And in very good markets, we have seen plenty of times where things have big gaps to the downside, and they just rally right back up. That tells you a little bit about market conditions. Now, it is important. You should have estimates,

for the companies you are watching, and it is important you look for what the number that came in and whether they beat those estimates, both on the sales front, but more importantly on the earnings front, because very often you can get turnarounds in companies where sales aren't going up significantly, but you have a huge gargantuan move in earnings growth

because of some changes they made on the expense side. So it's very important. You just don't look at a number. it's just it's important that you just don't look at a stock it's very important you just don't look at the gap know exactly whether the company's in a bull market a bear market whether the sector's in a bull market and a bear market and why it gapped either up or down and it is very often the ones that gap up do it again and again and again these are your great companies earning seasons for us is the most exciting time of the quarter,

especially on the companies that we are following, the ones with the strongest earnings and revenue growth, with the greatest relative strength in the market, which simply means how is that stock doing versus the whole sector that it's in, as well as versus the rest of the market. Very important to watch that. It defines leadership in the market.

Relative strength. So what exactly is relative strength? How do you measure relative strength? And why is it so important to watch other stocks in the sector of the company? and stock that you are following. Just some other tricks of the trade we follow. So we'll wind it up next on relative strength, on cousin stocks. We thank you for being here.

I'm Gary. This is the one and only investors. With record U.S. debt, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and constant market swings. Many people are rethinking how to protect their savings. Physical gold and silver have been used to. for generations during uncertain times to diversify, not replace traditional investments. Preserve gold helps Americans understand these options. Text IHeart to 50505 to get your free wealth protection guide and explore how precious metals may fit into your retirement planning. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skisible, and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar,

and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I opened my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening.

That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? What are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guesters' hand, is Gary Culpa.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. Again, we're either climbing Mount Everest, Mount Kilimanjaro, swimming with sharks off of the northeast coast of Australia, or it's a holiday. So we have a special educational show. We have heard you because we were using the same ones going back a few too many years. So this is the new and improved version. of we're not here today's show.

So let's move on. We're talking markets, we're talking stocks, and we're talking the word relative strength. And that two words gets bandied about very much on Wall Street. To us, it's pretty simple. Is that stock leading or is it lagging? When the market is up, is it up more? When the market is down, is it down less?

Simple as that. We're looking for the strongest stocks in the market that if the market's going up 10, it's going up 20. If the market's going down 10, it's flat. Now, you're never going to get perfection, but the whole idea is to recognize where that big leadership is. But how do you measure it? What is the best way to measure relative strength?

But really, price is the best way you can actually look at it and see. but we have found that the people at William O'Neill and Company have the best way. They use a relative strength line on the charts they used. Used to be on their daily graph charts. It's now called Market Smith. And their charts show you, number one, a little line of the S&P and a little line of the stock, relative strength. and we just love when we see a stock

where the market's doing nothing the stock has its relative strength line into new high ground while the market's sitting that's relative strength we love when the market's cratering and the stock you are following is just sitting and the relative strength line is soaring, just waiting for the market to stop going down before price catches up.

This is what we are looking for in a daily basis. And we use that relative strength line, and it also comes with a number from 1 to 99 on those charts. It is a great weapon in the arsenal can tell you what your stock is doing, and you're always looking. My favorite way to know when to not buy something is something called a relative strength non-confirmation.

And what that simply means is the market is ridiculously strong and your stock finally starts to move out of range, but it hasn't kept up with the market at all. It's just moving because it's being carried on a leash by the market. And when the market decides to turn and come down, the lack of strength in that stock takes it down more easily than something that busted out three weeks in advance. So very important to watch as well as the cousin stocks. And what that simply means is if you have 25 restaurant stocks and they're all in a bare market

and then one all of a sudden busts out into a bullmark and starts rolling and then number two starts showing up and then number three, number four, number five, usually means the rest are going to follow to a certain extent. And you start paying attention to every stock in the group. Now, there are industries, sectors that are notorious where everything moves hand in hand. The oils, it's commodity. Price goes up, just about everything goes up. So it's a little bit different than, let's say, the restaurants.

I've seen plenty of times where you've had strong ones with weak ones at the same time. and that's why you use the measuring stick of relative strength when looking at cousin stocks. And let me say, when a group is starting to show up in relative strength, you always want to pay attention to the first name or the second name, maybe the third name, that busts out. You typically do not want to go for that last one. The true strength will show up first. The big leaders will show up first.

There's a simple way they show up. They'll be breaking above resistance levels and potentially showing up on the yearly new high list. So we watch relative strength as well as cousin stocks together. We've heard some analysts say, and buy the worst stock in a group when it starts moving. We don't believe in that. We're not saying the worst stock won't move.

We want the best. When you're picking sides on a basketball team, you're picking the worst or you're picking the best. When you're looking for the great strength in the market, are you looking for the best or you're looking to the ones pulling up on the stretch. So very important you put these two into your arsenal also.

You can check out Investors.com, marketsmith.com, and check out those charts. We do not get paid by them. We're just letting you know what we use. And you can look up the definitions of their relative strength

and what they look like if you go to their site. Well, we're almost down from Mount Kilimanjur hope we have helped you today. We're going to do more shows like this in an effort to educate. We thank you for being here. Until next time, you have a great evening drive carefully.

And when you get home, do like we do. Simple. Make sure you hug your children. Night night, night off. Thanks for joining us for another edition of Investors Edge. On the Biz Talk Radio Network, if you missed any of today's show or to get in touch with Gary Culpom, Please go to GaryKK.com.

That's GaryKK.com. To reach Gary Koltbaum at his office, call 1-8-4-2-2-5559. That's 1-3-2-2-5-9. The opinions you hear on BizTalk Radio are those of the hosts, callers, and guests, and do not necessarily reflect those of this station Biz Talk Radio, its management or... Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. So what do this animal... And this animal? And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm.

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