Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - MASDAQ/NDX CONFIRMATION DAY

Episode Date: March 16, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's the 16th of March. As a Stone Cold Steve Austin fan, 316. Oh, I know the other 316. And 2020, and ladies and gentlemen, the word is succinct.

That's what we believe we do here. Every day I listen back to the show to make sure I am conveying things the way I want them conveyed and the way you should be hearing it. And you never know if it comes out right. We always mean well. We always just want to stay on top of things. And we've been very succinct in our opinions as of late, in every way, shape, or form. On a daily basis, we have been telling you what to avoid.

Just for starters. by happenstance, not by prediction. It was two Mondays ago. We went back and checked. Where we said to you, we're worried about the banks. Something is up. We knew nothing. We were watching how the regional banks were trading.

And obviously, something was picked up on, and utter destruction to the point where a couple go by-bye, and a save has to be made for another, and we'll see what's coming next. We've also been succinct in telling you what's up with the NASDAQ and technology. It's holding up so well. On a daily basis, it's relative strength.

How can that be? How can the banks crash and leave no doubt? It's a crash. in a lot of banks. What's with technology? Well, the answer is we didn't know either. The only thing we did know is, while markets were crashing, so many areas were crashing, you had a few names moving into New High Ground.

We named a couple yesterday. We told you A-N-E-T was the strongest name. Well, we found out a few things today in the markets that we want to be. to discuss straight out of the box first and foremost we are always looking for strength we are always looking to be able to take advantage of strength and every time strength has showed up in this market it's been fleeting and stops you out and if you're not careful buries you soon after we want bull markets i don't need a five-year bull market give me three months i'll take four weeks so the market today the rest of the market today finally stopped going down had an

up day and what do we mean by that in case you did not know in the previous eight days the Dow went from 33 431 to 31 429 1900 points in the previous few days in the previous few days. Oh, the KRE, the Regional Bank Index, in the past few days, not from the highs, but the past few days. 60, down to a low this week of, if I can get the number right, 42. Last I looked, that's 30% in days. By the way, that's not off the highs.

Individual names, much worse than 50%. but while that was going on the NASDAQ types pulled back everything gets pulled back but no biggie and in the last two days the NASDAQ was up I was scratching my head how is this possible aren't we going into a deep recession

isn't all hell breaking loose isn't the banking industry screwed isn't the morons in Washington DC a bunch of morons well as we tell you all we do is pay attention to the market price. And finally, the market bounced today. For one day, I'm going to use the word, a huge move in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and semi-conductors.

And if the market here doesn't crap the bet again, I think we're really on to something here for the near term. because in case you don't know, the NASDAQ today broke above trend line. Little trend line starting about seven weeks ago. The NASDAQ 100 did the same. The semiconductors did the same. But the stronger stuff, the names that outperform, oh man, really going, really going.

And we've named those names for you. they had another really good day. We're just talking technology here. We're talking semiconductors. We're talking Facebook. I've been mentioning Facebook. And it turns out TikTok getting in trouble with our government may be part of that. I've yet to scan.

I know what I'm going to find. The worst stuff bounced. The strongest stuff ramped. And that's the story. how long it lasts, how far it goes, I have not a clue. All I can tell you for the last few days, they held them up great, and the first day up in the rest of the market shot them out. Okay, out of a cannon.

I'll use that. I don't want to be too hyperbolic. You get my point when I say that. That's all I can tell you, dang. and what we're best at is recognizing an isolating strength when the market's weak and isolating weakness when the market's strong. You already know that. Well, the isolating of strength when the market was weak. Dang.

Bill O'Neill used the term holding basketballs underwater until the coast clears them. That's what some names did today. and they even did it with the mega camp names, which typically don't move like the higher beta names. They had good moves today. So just out of the box letting you know, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Semiconductors Tech, had a very good day today.

And let's hope it continues. We do know. We don't have our head in the sand. We do know we can wake up tomorrow and some other bank Or something else. China invades Taiwan Russia lights up a nuke. That's not happening. We're just letting you know in real time as of the second, dang. That was one heck of a NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 semiconductor day today.

And typically, normally, and we told you yesterday from the close yesterday, we get some upside testing. This was not upside testing. This was some stuff. So we just wanted to start with that. Out of the box. Out of the get-go. We don't know what tomorrow is going to do.

I will tell you this. I'm going to make a statement. You listen to him? On these things that are moving, if they have a nice little controlled, quiet, slight, nothingness for two or three days, You buy the hell out of them because they're going to go higher. That's the technical setup.

That's the roadmap for these names. I haven't scanned yet. I'm pretty sure I know what I'm going to find. And I know I'll get some questions. How can this be happening? I have no clue. We just follow the bouncing ball. That's what we do best.

And it ain't easy because it's tough to drown out everything else that's going on. And we'll explain a couple of things that are. going on in just a few minutes. But we just wanted to start out of the box to let you know the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, the semiconductors. Go take a look at those chart patterns from today. And if you want to compare them to the regional banks,

you'll see what we're talking about. Up next, market wrap Moore. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a lot of, living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on

the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 888-5-5-9. That's 888-4-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health.

questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something

that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get. your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.

switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

In Bad News. You know I'm quite passionate for my music. You know that. No bad news in music today. But you know how I feel about yes. Genesis, Rush, Steely Dan, the Who, the Eagles, Springsteen, you know my list, you know my passion, the Beatles, Led Zeppelin, Queen, unbelievable, some more than others. You know how depressed I have been since Neil Park passed away, and Rush is no longer Tor.

going to see rushes like a rite of passage. And I'm sure I've left out a few. The stones. How can I leave that out? But they're in my, you know, not top five, but you also know my passion for the Giants, the Mets. And I'd love to, yeah, still the Knicks,

as much as I can't stand the owner that has destroyed the team. So they have this world baseball league that they send professional baseball players to. And the great closer for the Mets, Edwin Diaz, closes out a game and they start celebrating after the game. Torin Patella out for the year. I can't tell you how depressed I am today. That he was a linchpin for this team to win the World Series this coming year. You need a great closer.

Anyway, that's my bad news today. Okay, back on the other news. I consider myself very logical. We've made some magnificent calls away from the market, but part of the market throughout the last few years of the bubbles, the popping, the Fed. I really do believe one plus one should equal two. I do believe you stick a source.

square peg in a square hole. I don't understand some of the things we are seeing in our financial industry. I do understand Janet Yellen being full of crap and going out in front of the Senate today and saying everything's great with the banks while all hell has been breaking loose. It's almost, should be the cold open for Saturday Night Live this weekend. But just letting you know, company called Credit Suisse, that of Switzerland. The stock has gone from 70 down to two since, I don't know, 07, and they are a outcome of massive debt, leverage, stupidity, moronic ability, the whole works. But there's this thing in our business called Too Big to Fail. Can't have them fail.

They got too much. It'll affect other things. We don't want a Lehman moment where it falls to other things. and there's something called counterparty risk and everything. But here's what I don't understand. The Swiss Central Bank and the bank are giving them a loan, I don't know in what form, but it's debt of $54 billion for a company that is a market cap for $5 billion

and for companies that it's in its position because of too much debt. Yet people were all kind of like, okay, good. Really? Now, the other part of the financial industry today is you never know what's next. Remember the word I used when this was starting? Termites. You worry about termites. So there's one called First Republic Bank.

It's a regional bank. Let me give an example. In the last four quarters, it's done, four, seven, five, little less than seven billion in revenue. Okay? Let's compare that to J.P. Morgan. That is done in the last four quarters, 87, 117, 117, 145 billion. So one has to ask, J.P. Morgan and a slew of big banks are depositing $30 billion into First Republic Bank. 11 banks, 30 billion in deposits to shore them up. And I'm thinking to myself, shouldn't that worry the hell out of people even more?

And leave no doubt, this was brokered with our government, Jamie Diamond of J.P. Morgan, met with Janet Yellen today, our fabulous Treasury Secretary, who I wouldn't let run a lemonade stand. So just what is going on when a 11th? 11 gargantuan banks. By the way, big banks, huge. Some gave $5 billion, some gave a billion. Some like that. 30 billion in deposits for a company that has $7 billion in sales and made a billion, 1.4 billion in earnings last year.

At least that's what it shows. I'm going off the numbers here. It's so weird. It's so weird, ladies and gentlemen. That's all I can tell you. It's so weird. And I've been asked all day, do you think we've gotten to the point where we really don't have to worry? I don't know.

Has anything changed? Well, one thing is our government with no capital has told all these banks, you know, all the losses you have on the Treasury securities, think of it now. is they're at par now. If you own a treasury security that's 80 cents on the dollar and you're down 20%, nah, you're par. We're stopping you at par. With no capital, of course. How can they do that with no capital?

What's called hope and prayer. The hope and prayer is because of the words that we're stopping you at par, people stop taking money out. Just remember what we've told you. We don't care what anybody else says, they're full of it. Banks are only in business if they have the power. So if depositors leave, the party is over. So we're going to give you a big fat, I don't know, but leave no doubt the people that caused all this blinked, big time.

Up next. Moral hazard. You know what that is? This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacist to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much

more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, an American public university is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, Shh.

Listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, what's moral hazard? Well, you know, we talk about the stories where shoplifters get arrested 30 times.

and 30 times led out of jail with nothing, no penalty, no nothing. They have no incentive to guard against their risk of going to jail, a moral hazard. In 2007, 2008, the sleazy, slimy, scummy, financial institutions that leveraged their asses up. on mortgage-backed securities, some to the tune of 10 and 20 times, where all it took was a little bit of loss. Well, 800 billion of our dollars later,

what did that give all these people the incentive to guard against risk? How do you think we get bubbles? Well, if our government is said to these banks, you're covered oh we know you lost all this money we're taking care of it what is the incentive

for them to guard against risk going forward none who pays for all this us you know how Joe Biden has come out and lie that no taxpayer is going to pay for this Joe Biden cannot turn on a light bulb in the Oval Office without our tax dollars

or without them going into debt our government produces no revenues. It's on us. Moral hazard. Do I think our banking system is sound? To the extent that government didn't just interfere with no capital? No. Do I think we'll be okay?

My guess is, yeah. Do I think there's going to be more episodes? hell yeah do I know in what form hell no do I know who nope but watch stock price it has a way of flushing out problems in companies uncannily has its way of flushing out problems Many a time in the past decades I have seen a stock down 70, 80% before any bad news comes out and then the news comes out. The financial stocks were gagging for a year in 0708 and completely underperforming before all the news came out. We'll keep our ear to the ground, our eyes wide open. we heard some people say you gotta own the big banks

no you don't but we'll be watching and we'll see if anything shows up trust is low without a doubt a JP Morgan has held up better than so many other things but who knows we'll just watch price

my mantra remains I've never been more optimistic on most of us I've never been more pessimistic on all of them. They're all nauseating. I watch some Republicans today talk about debt and deficits, but didn't say a freaking word under Trump when Trump went $6, $7 trillion into debt. And of course, then I watched the Socialist Marxist Party, which, by the way, I can't even listen to anymore.

About as nauseating as nauseating can be, and they have perfected the art of trying to convince people that their lot in life will never be good unless you vote for them and you'll be taken care of. Instead of saying, work hard, educate yourself, become great. You know what the Democrat Social Marxist Party mantra should be? You know when you say to your children, reach for the stars? This mantra should be reach for the sidewalk. That's how bad they are.

That's what a socialist slash Marxist is. control freaks and they control you with rules regulations fees fines mandates taxes oversight and giveaways and we were warned by Jefferson

centuries ago about when government's given away so much that they're just buying the hell out of votes and getting them so I've never been more pessimistic on all of them I'm waiting for some sanity coming from either party on debt deficits efficient and effective government and leaving

us the hell alone knowing it's we the people not we them haven't found anybody yet i've seen some gums flapping haven't found one yet haven't found one yet all present company included and we move on i don't know what tomorrow brings but the nasdaq nasdaq nasdaq one 100, and I will tell you this, if the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 can take out. Well, first off, the NASDAQ would need to take out 11827 before heading to over 12,000 and 12269. The NASDAQ 100 needs to take out 12, excuse me, it did take out 12466. Next would be 12689 and 12880. So if those areas get taken out, we're off.

And the action in the last few days, we're not talking to big percentages. We're talking patterns and the roadmap. Got some potential. Not guaranteeing. We got some potential here. And amazingly, this is all happening. Well, we were worried about the financial system going to hell in the handbasket. Very good day. Let's hope it continues. Next week we got Mr. Bubble.

But I'm letting you know again. I don't think he matters right now. I've been saying that for a few months, right? He can move the market for a day or two, but he doesn't matter. He certainly doesn't matter the economy except what he destroys. But moving a quarter point or not next week, ain't going to change the playing field a bit. I was going to write a letter offering them a one-month vacation on the island of Maui. at the best resorts, just leave us alone, but I thought better of that. What do we want to do up next, since I covered so much already, and I'm on a roll? Well, we're going to cover again, add a little more perspective to today's action, particularly the NASDAQ, NASDAQ, and Semiconductors.

It does not mean it just fails tomorrow, because today we consider something of a launching pad, it could go awry. But what we just look for at all times is opportunity, the opportunity for something to happen. Remember, there's a roadmap, a specific and definitive roadmap that defines good and bad markets and opportunity for good or bad markets. in spite of the unbelievable nausea in financial stocks of all stripes as well as energy and other areas in spite of

we got a sore thumb a big juicy sore thumb heading into tomorrow up next this that and the other thing and whatever else this is the one only investors edge Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists

to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach egg every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from

CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at

apu.apus.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth

to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say, and she replies with a low... Listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's.

It's your happy place. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa.

By the way, do you know how darn focused I am on the markets right now? because as you know we missed the bare market pretty much if not all we are so focused and always recognize that on the worst news possible you can get real good bull moves and boy we've had some bad news we didn't even know the NCAA tournament started today we did but we didn't i just looked at i just went to esPN dot com oh this nCA games unbelievable I had no idea. And you know I'm a sports not. We got some March Maznes here in Orlando.

I don't know if I'm going to go to any games. I'm looking to see if there are any big upsets. Ooh, and number 13 beat in number four. I see that. That's an upset. That's about it. A 12 versus a 5 close game at halftime. Kansas beat the crap out of some other team by 28.

I think they were given 21. Oh, you read me. Yeah, so watch a little NCAA tonight. What's tonight? Thursday? Yeah, okay. Okay. So I'm going to do a little bit of technical talk. So a long time ago, I met William O'Neill and followed his strategies, but realized too often they really die.

They don't maneuver when you have to maneuver a little bit. They have something called a follow-through day, a confirmation day. It is a day where the market's been in a downtrent and the market stops going down down, and then four days after you get this big day to the upside on heavier volume than the day before, they call it a follow-through day, a confirmation day. Now, here's the tricky part. Every bull move has started with one. not every time you've had one it's led to a bull move

and typically you'll know something fails because in the first few days it fails I'm pretty sure today was one of those days I got you know what though it may be weird in that I don't know about volume yet because yesterday was a big volume day but leave no doubt price had it but too often they'll call it and there are no stocks to even touch. This one has some attached. So we'll see what comes of it. We'll see what it brings. You know what I want?

If I had the market to do my bidding, and it never does. I can hope and pray a market does a certain thing. Nah. I would just love. Everything that made the move today, sit around for a few days. maybe go from a little diagonal pullback little diagonal not a sharp one and then bust the move moving forward we'd love that

today looks to me like a pretty good confirmation day for the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 stuff the rest of the market had a good day but a lot of things are just bouncing and catching up after getting trashed And when I say catching up, getting back, drop 20, get back five. So today's market wrap is brought you by, investment dash models.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market.

It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Dowlap 372. S&P 68, NASDAQ, 283. NASDAQ 100 330. Sox 120. Transports 176.

There was still 400 and something new yearly lows, but they were all off. the lows by the close because we started lower. New yearly highs, are you ready? I'm about to give you the new yearly highs, which should take about 10 seconds. On the NASDAQ. Academy Sports ASO. Earnings. Cadence Design, CDNS, one of my favorites. Latest semiconductors, LSCC, one of my favorites. Don't ask me why Texas Roadhouse, TXRH. I'm just doing NASDAQ. I'm looking, I'm looking, I'm looking, I'm looking. Just NASDAQ. I'm not going to mention a $3 name. Inside Enterprises, NSIT. Market Taxes, M-K-T-X. And I believe that's a very low-volume name. That is it for your NASDAQ. On the New York, Arista Networks, that's that name, A-N-E-T.

New York. New Yearly highs. Oops, found one more. Embria. Don't they make the jets? ERJ. Aircraft. That's a new yearly high.

That's it. So if this can get legs, and one day we will, pay attention to these first movers. Usually, they're the first movers and the strongest names. For reason. Leading stocks and leading groups

with the greatest relative strength, with great earnings and revenue growth, which you have to adjust a little bit right now because I got news for you. You're getting good moves in some names that earnings stink. We'll see how they play out over time. What happens tomorrow in the market? Not a clue. Yields are up today off of the feeling of better.

Oil bounced, but oil stocks are trashed and we'll see you tomorrow. You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home due light. we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. Maybe even say I love you. They'll really feel better. Until tomorrow, I don't know my schedule on TV, but we'll be back here tomorrow for this show. Have a great one, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Peace out, my friends. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary. go to Gary K.com.

That's GaryK.com. With record U.S. debt, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and constant market swings, many people are rethinking how to protect their savings. Physical gold and silver have been used for generations during uncertain times to diversify, not replace, traditional investments. Preserve gold helps Americans understand these options. Text iHeart to 50505. To get your free wealth protection guys.

and explore how precious metals may fit into your retirement planning. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu.edu.