Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - MAY I HAVE ANOTHER [11.02.2023]
Episode Date: November 2, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colpom, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening.
It's Thursday, November 2nd, 2023.
Hope you having a good day.
Let's get rid of the pleasant trees very quickly.
This is a show about you and everything that affects you.
and your money, in the markets, the economy, and the jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit, spending, scam, shams, corruption, you name it.
We cover it, especially when it affects the living heck out of you.
And, man, there's so many things going on.
But most importantly, your 401Ks are now getting flush.
That is good news.
And without further ado, by the way, if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we will post it at GaryK.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you want to follow us on Twitter, you just go there, put our name in and all that fun stuff.
And if you want to email me, just be nice.
That's all you got it.
So recently we've been starting with what's going on in the Middle East, and then we segue and segue do markets and stuff.
And we are going to start today the other way.
We are going to do markets.
here is the genesis of the markets.
Coming into last Friday, the markets continue to be squashed.
And I don't mean just squashed.
I mean very squashed over the last few months.
On a daily basis, we had been highlighting for you two things.
Markets squashed, interest rates higher.
interest rates higher, causing markets to be squashed.
And when I mean markets, we follow 200 sectors,
1,500 to 2,000 stocks, every country and every commodity.
And what do I mean by American Airlines?
19 down to 11.
That's what we mean.
And this is on the latest drop.
City Group, 49, down to 36.
Latest drop.
We're not talking from a lower high of Bank America, almost 33 to 25.
Even J.P. Morgan, even J.P. Morgan, that can't go down, 160 to 136.
Goldman Sachs, 361.
to 290.
Those are what?
An airline?
How about Delta?
50 down to 31.
And just so you know, this is just since July.
Since July.
United Airlines, 58 to 34.
This is some real world stuff, kids.
How about, let's see.
I'm just trying to come up with some things.
Carnival cruise lines
19.5 to 11.
How about we walk into
Hershey's 277 to 185.
By the way, we're not making any of this up.
These are all facts.
How about some
semiconductor names,
Texas Instruments.
188.
to 140.
And by the way, you can figure out the percentages,
but they're pretty big.
How about Truist?
The old SunTrust.
Well, you know what?
Forget the regionals,
because I have to go back to January
and tell you Truist was 51 to 25.
Last I looked, that's 50%.
Yeah, correct.
The transports.
16,717 to 13471.20%. 20%. If my rusty abacus is correct.
From July, that is an index of transport stocks. The transports.
The Russell 2000, it's only 2,000 stocks.
to 1633.
What is that?
18%.
Since July.
And all we've been doing on this show is say to you,
avoid this, that, and the other thing.
Avoid this, that, and the other thing.
Avoid this, avoid that,
avoid this, avoid that.
And pretty much all I've been saying to you is,
well, a group of oil stocks are the leadership in the market,
some uranium stocks leadership in the market, some insurance stocks leadership in the market, everything else sucks.
That's what I've been telling you up until Friday.
So we come into this week.
And we're in the midst of earning season.
And as you know, in earnings season, you're going to get some great moves to the upside.
And you're going to get some great blowups to the downside.
You're also going to have great moves to the upside on the open that finished down on the day, reversing down,
and then you're going to have great moves to the downside that finish up because earning season is wacky.
Today, Roku, they announced a $2.33 loss.
That was good enough for a 30% gain to $78.
because it had gone from 96 down to 58 in the last seven weeks.
So it took a big loss.
Keep in mind, though, Roku was a $500 stock in September of 21.
It closed at 78 today up 30%.
But think long term because you always want to own a stock that's gone from 500 down to 78.
What else today?
Anybody ever hear of Parker Hanifan?
Stock was up $34.4 today, 9%.
It had gone from $4.28 down to $360 something.
It was up $34 today on that earnings.
Terrific.
On the other end, stock called Confluent, down 42% today,
down $11.85 to $16.28.
Crocs, Crocs.
Well, the good news is it only finished down 5% today.
But at one time today, it was down 15%.
But was still down 5%.
On the other end, chlorox.
Chlorox today was up 6% on earnings.
There's only one problem.
In July, it was 169.
It closed at 123 today.
So in other words, earning season is we came into this week.
And just so you know on Friday, we finished on a low.
So we come into this week and on Monday we had a good day.
But we have the Fed on Wednesday.
And we have earnings all through the week.
And we have a decent day Tuesday.
And then we have the Fed yesterday.
And we kind of, I don't know if the word is warning,
but we said to you on Tuesday, with the market rallying for two days out of nowhere,
I said to you, I wonder if the central bank leaked that they're going to say something
during their Fed meeting to juice the market.
Because out of nowhere, Goldman Sachs, which has gone from 361 to 290, had a strong Monday.
And in case you don't know, we had said to you, Goldman Sachs is the pipeline to the Washington, D.C.
How do we know this?
Well, go look at how many people became Treasury Secretary's worked for Goldman Sachs and back and forth.
So yesterday, the Fed, whatever they did, whatever, you know, they said, and I don't know how they're going to do it,
that there's going to be less supply of bonds.
And I'm thinking to myself, how is that possible with the bazillion dollars that they have to go into debt?
Whatever.
What that did, the bond market bottomed.
Interest rates plunged.
By the close, the market had another good day.
And we had no idea what we were going to come into today.
Because as I also said to it very often, whatever happens on Fed Day, the opposite happens the next day.
which means strong up day, bad down day.
Well, you know what happened today.
The bond market gaped up, interest rates gaped down, and we had another big day.
Any way you cut it, another big day.
The opposite of what we saw for months.
Remember how we kept saying 3,000 stocks down, 1,000 stocks up?
Well, today on the New York, 3,500 up, only 500 down.
Wow.
Up next, the numbers.
And much more.
This is the one only Investors Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Hey, thanks for being with us today.
So here's my thought process.
Simple thought process.
The lows we have seen are not going to be revisited anytime soon.
That's my thought process.
You got that?
And I'm saying that Apple is going to report in the next 15, 20 minutes.
I have absolutely no idea what Apple's going to report.
I have absolutely no idea how the market's going to react to it.
the way the market's acting, I can tell you that if they file bankruptcy, I think the stock could still be up.
That's sarcasm.
Anyway, my take is simple.
The lows we have seen are not going to be taken out anytime soon.
I think they are firm lows right now.
Are they the low?
answer is don't know because just remember markets go through a process but I have seen enough
in my own pattern recognition and my eyes that enough is turned what I call the corner
what do I mean by the corner as we have explained it to you in simplistic form
bearish phases are two steps up four steps down
bullish phases are two steps down, four steps up.
It seems to me that the worst areas of the market finally made a stair step up.
Now, how that mean we're off to the races?
Well, one can say the last four days is off to the races.
But it's only a few percent, but definite improvement again today.
the worst areas improved.
If the worst areas find a floor and can't go beneath,
well, the market can't go beneath.
The market is only as good as its worst areas.
What? Huh?
Very simple.
If the worst areas stop going down,
So our thought process is what you just saw at the beginning of the week, I do not believe it's going to be taken out anytime soon.
Now we'll get to see what the market has in store.
I don't know.
It's already what we call overbought, already stretched, extended to the upside.
So it could sit, relax, pull back, hang out,
unless the bond market does a big, gigantic freaking U-turn,
I think the lows shall hold.
In fact, I'm giving a number on the S&P
that is actually above the lows of Friday closed.
that is my fail safe
and that would be about the 4200 level
give or take a few pennies
why? Because we undercut the 4216
and got back above it quickly
that'll be the fail safe and we'll know quickly
can we retest
yes
will we retest maybe
what are we up against well it's quite simple
Listen carefully. Do you know what a trend line is? Again, if we can't show it, it's tougher, but a trend line is very simple. You take a point price over a period of time and you're able to draw a line between the points. And in the case of the last few months, we had a series of lower highs. Let me give you them. On the S&P, it's 4607 at the high, 4541 at the next high.
4393 at the next high.
Well, if you draw a line across the tops,
you will see that the trend line takes you.
We close today on the S&P at 4317.
The trend line is somewhere in the neighborhood of 437,
give a take.
Want to get above that.
and nothing is broken above the trend line yet.
You get above that, we would be even more emboldened.
That's all.
So another good day.
I really can't even give you anything bad.
The 10-year yield down a 0.20 to 4669.
It was just five.
and I can whine and complain about the Fed leaking, and there's no doubt they did, because this thing started moving Monday before the Fed meeting on Wednesday when they started talking about supply and leave no doubt.
The bond market's been moving on massive amounts of supply, and now they're saying there's going to be less. We'll see. Just remember, and I say this with no joy. These people are adults.
and they are full of crap.
We'll just keep paying attention to the market.
But you have our stance,
you have our fail safe,
and we will know if things get better
if leadership shows up.
Right now we're recovery.
That's what we are, recovery.
Bank America, which went from 33
down to 25, is rallied to 27.5.
That's trying to recover.
that's what 90% of the market is doing right now.
Doesn't sound that great, does it?
33 to 27.5.
And by the way, that's just on this leg down.
Well, that's the story.
That's what's going on the last few days.
J.P. Morgan.
159 down to 136, back to 141.40.
That's good, Gary?
Well, it's a start.
Now, I have no idea how the market
does tomorrow, possibly pull back a little bit.
Don't know. We'll see if Apple has anything to say.
As we said, we have no clue. They have not reported yet.
I believe they reported 430. It's 419, so we'll actually have the number as we do this show.
Tonight I have to go through a bazillion earnings report that came out in the last couple of days.
lots of gaps to the upside
but also
let me give you an example of what we're always
worry about shake shack
never eaten there
I heard it's pretty good
I'm not the biggest burger guy
but I hear it's pretty good
the stock has gone from 80
hit a low of 52
they reported earnings
today the stock
opened up
at 61
it closed at 56
big bar to the downside. That's what you don't want to see. Up next, we'll continue on Investor's
Edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John
underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to
four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw
fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there
more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000.
airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by
Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar,
you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
to America is talking
Investors
Edge
He's got to be pleased with that
The crowd is just on his feet here
He's a Cinderella boy
With Gary Coltbaum
Comes highly recommended
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him
So
That was Shake Shack
You don't want to see negative reversals like that
On the other end
Ferrari
Gapped up today, finished up 6%.
Volume good, earnings up 6%.
60% revenue is up 33.
We're not recommending it.
We're just letting you know that's a good reaction and stayed up throughout the day.
And our job is just to continue to stay on top of this stuff.
And hopefully leadership shows up.
Big gigantic jump in new yearly highs in the markets.
Breaking out of great ranges that we can play and don't have to look over our shoulder.
and maybe we can get this really good rally.
Oils had a very good day today.
Oil prices are up two bucks, which fundamentally is not good news.
Oil stocks, though, very mixed, but I got to tell you.
When I look at the New Yearly High List, it's mostly oils,
but there's plenty of oil stocks that are weak.
So mixed bag.
And our job every day, what's leading?
What's lagging?
Is it improving?
Are the stair steps going up?
Or did they get aborted already?
That's what we'll do.
And we have things today like Avis Rannachar.
It was up $23 today to $186.
But it was $2.45 in July.
Another, what we call, recovery.
What's my problem with it?
Revenues up 0%.
earnings down 23% year over year.
That's not good.
It's not what I want.
So while I recognize the move,
does not fit the bill.
Look for something different.
And that'll be my job,
and especially as we go into the weekend to go over it
in a very big way.
Because you only have a certain amount of minutes in the day
to do this.
And man, there was like, I mean,
this week, a thousand earnings reports.
And now as we go into the aftermarket today,
I already have to, I see Square, which the name is now block.
The stock is gone, get this.
From 81 to 40 since July, a 50% dropped.
By the way, this is what I mean by disasters since July.
Well, it closed up three bucks today to 43,
and it's up another seven bucks in the aftermarket to 51.
So 81 to 40 to 51.
Does that change the playing field for me?
Not really.
But I will recognize it.
We'll look over what the earnings were and go from there.
On the other end, something called Atlassian.
I have no idea what that means.
The symbol is team.
So they come up with this weird name with a,
simple symbol in team and I believe they're from Australia. Here's a stock that's gone from
215 weeks ago. Hit a low this week of 173. I mean, these are big drops in weeks. Well,
it's bounced up to 181 the last couple of days, 158 in the aftermarket. So that one
going the other way. Booking holdings.
closed at 2838
today, up 72,
but it was 3,200 a few weeks ago.
It's down 140 bucks in the aftermarket.
This is what I have to do.
And it is arduous.
I'd like to say it's a pain in the you know what,
but it keeps us ahead.
And what we'll do tonight,
we're going to go through everything.
And we're going to see that
damn they really killed this bank america and city group but it looks like they probably turn the
corner are they in bull mode no but recovery and as i said at the outset what you have are stocks that
are down 10 rallying up three and we'll see if it can continue that's all simple as that and apple
report in five minutes and we'll see what comes of it we'll have it for you and we reason we bring it
up $15.6 billion every dollar it moves.
My expectation, by the way, Apple's guidance is to be up only about 7% earnings year over year.
But they are the greatest sandbaggers of all time.
And what that means is they always guide always much lower than they actually do.
and let me tell you, they know every freaking penny.
They're also guiding for sales to be down year over year.
Not much, but down.
I'd be surprised if their sales were down year over year.
But by the way, knowing they do have some issues.
I do know for a fact they've had to lower prices in China.
So we'll see how it goes.
That'll be in a few minutes.
Hey, in the news.
Well, politics.
So the Biden administration is all of a sudden worried.
They're all of a sudden worried because the left is all mad at them.
The left is mad at them for, how dare you, how dare you take up sides with Israel?
How dare you?
The Biden administration today announces.
a commission, not on fighting anti-Semitism that has been running rampant, but Islamophobia.
Have you ever seen politicians in sight just give the big gigantic middle finger to what's
happening on the ground in order to save votes?
Now, you know us, we don't see race, creed, or color.
We're gender. We believe everybody's equal. Doesn't matter to me whatsoever. Never has, never will.
But unfortunately to others, a lot of that crap's going on. Stunning to watch. But I got to tell you, this administration, a commission on Islamophobia, while yesterday, the editor of the Harvard Review,
was blocking a Jewish man from walking on campus.
Six or seven of them were surrounding a Jewish man.
I wonder if he got fired from the Harvard Review.
What we're seeing is sickening across the board.
In every way, shape, or form.
I don't know where to start.
and for those that believe propaganda, that it's all propaganda, Israel put out a video for whoever wants to watch of what they did.
I'll move on.
But that really pissed me off today.
And I have complimented the Biden administration on how they initially reacted.
But obviously, they're thinking now about their votes.
So let's have a commission
Not on anti-Semitism
But Islamophobia
Which is fine and dandy
Go ahead
Nobody
Nobody should be racist
Towards any Muslim
Sikh
Arab
Middle Eastern
Ever
But let's have a commission now
In the midst
In the midst
Of what's going on
With Israel
with Israel.
Boggles the mind.
That's all I can tell you.
Boggles the mind.
All right.
I don't know if Apple's reported,
but it's starting to light up like a pinball machine.
I got it up.
Two bucks in the aftermarket.
Make that three.
Make that four.
I don't have the numbers as of yet.
Make that three.
Make that two and a half.
It's all over the free.
in place. Anyway, Apple was up four on the day. It's been a very weak stock versus a lot of things.
Not that bad, though. It has gone from 198 to 165 since July. It has rallied up to 177.5
over the last few days. In other words, a bunch of recoveries. I now have Apple down in the
aftermarket a buck, but moving like crazy.
Up next, this, that, and the other thing.
I got other news, too.
This is the one only investors' edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.
VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Sprecker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
I have it down about two bucks in the aftermarket now.
I haven't seen the numbers yet.
In the news, you know where I was supposed to be.
be tonight. I was going to go see Dave Chappelle, but, you know, I have no problem with somebody's
opinion, ever. But if I'm going to go see a comedian, I don't need him giving opinions on
Israel, so I didn't go. And he's funny as hell. I mean, just an unbelievable comedic talent.
But I'm, I took the pass. In the news,
you know who
Majorcas is
head of the
Homeland Security Department
somebody at the
DHS put out
this whole thing
about death to Jews
somebody who works
for our government
and he was asked
by one of our senators
about that
and a simple question
have you fired that person
yet
imagine somebody who works
for our Homeland Security
death to Jews.
And Majorcas got mad at the question.
How dare you?
We put the person on leave.
Well, have you fired that person?
And Majorcas, the Homeland Security person,
who, by the way,
who's pretty much the point person on our border,
which is an absolute disaster,
actually got mad at the question.
The people run in this country just absolutely suck.
That's all I can tell you.
From the debt and the deficits to the border,
to the out-of-control government spending,
I don't even know where to go.
Anyway, while we're still talking,
Apple is down $3 in the aftermarket,
a $48 billion drop in market cap as I speak.
In the news.
Bring this under the guise of I don't understand.
So do you remember the woman from Full House and her daughter and that college scam, the admission scandal?
Do you remember that?
Well, in case you don't know, on purpose, the mom paid the school, and then they lied about what she did.
They said she played polo when she didn't, so she would get a scholarship and get into school.
Just an absolute scam.
Okay?
It shouldn't harm anybody.
And I think she may have gone to jail or something for a little bit.
I don't even think she should go to jail for that because they're not putting people that attack others in jail in certain places, but whatever.
Here's what I don't understand.
And by the way, the daughter knew about it also.
So for me, if I owned a company, would I want them representing me?
Well, they are now the face of Stevie Madden's shoes campaign as the perfect pair to advertise the shoes.
And I'm thinking to myself, you couldn't find anybody else.
You had to find some rich people that played the business,
scam the business, in plain sight.
That's what you do.
That's who you hire.
Out of everybody in this world, Stevie Mann hires them.
And again, nothing personal.
I'm sure they're very nice.
I got nothing against them.
Just things I wonder about in the business world.
And probably they'll sell.
but people who pulled the scam, and by the way, hurting others trying to get into the school,
yeah, let's hire that person.
In the news, oh, we're going a little bit back to Israel.
Cornell is canceling classes tomorrow due to extraordinary stress on campus
after that scumbag appeared in court, the one that wants, I mean, threatened Jews' lives,
on the Cornell whatever boards.
But Cornell has yet to vociferously step out the racism and the anti-Semitism on campus.
But let's cut, let's get rid of classes because we know you have stress.
Well, you know why they have stress?
Because the Cornell professors have been teaching racism.
That's why.
in the news
interesting
five democratic mayors
of five blue cities
demand a meeting with Biden to deal
with the migrant crisis because they cannot
take more migrants coming into their city
New York, L.A., Houston, Denver, and Chicago.
Oh, you mean they figured out that Biden sucks
on immigration? Really? Had no idea.
I saw one Biden night come out yesterday and say it's Trump's fault.
Yeah, Trump caused the bubonic plague in the Chicago fire also.
Hey, we just report the news, ladies and gentlemen.
Bobby Knight passed away, Indiana coach.
May I state for the record that I've met him once.
I was at the year they won the championship in New Orleans.
I was there at the game.
and I actually stayed in the hotel that Indiana stayed at.
And may I say I could not sleep all night because they didn't shut up the whole night.
They were partying all night.
And I met Bobby Knight for like one minute.
And you know what he said to me?
I said to Mr. Knight, congratulations.
Da-da-da-da-da.
He said, call me coach.
That's all I remember.
Coach Knight, congratulations.
He said, thank you.
And that was the end of my conversation.
with Bobby Knight.
Just letting you know.
Big winner,
kind of tough character.
There's always two sides of the story,
but you know,
when you throw chairs onto the basketball court
and this, that, whatever.
Anyway, may rest in peace.
Bobby Knight has passed away.
Apple, beats by seven cents,
revenue slightly ahead of consensus.
The stock is down as I close the show, two and a half bucks,
which is actually kind of a big two and a half bucks if that's how it goes through the rest of the evening.
And that's what we got for you.
Tomorrow I should be on with Cavuto, noon hour.
You have a great evening. Drive carefully.
Thanks for putting up with me for another day.
Hopefully better days are ahead.
We'll take it day by day.
Again, you have a good evening.
Drive carefully when you get home.
Do like we do quite simple.
make sure you hug your family, make sure you hug your children, pet your dogs, hug your dogs.
I do every night with Winston.
Until tomorrow, thanks for joining.
Peace out all.
Bye bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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