Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Mega Cap Mess

Episode Date: October 26, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's October 26, 2022. And we're here to talk about you and everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, our central banks, our so-called leadership, all the interlopers. We talk jobs, scams, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it. And as you know, we try to do it.

I was told many years ago the first time I was on TV, just tell them how you feel. And make sure it's understandable. And I was once told, never even talk about the dollar or currencies because people will fall asleep. But we really talk about what's pertinent here. And we tell you how we feel, what we think, what we're seeing. We try to get you into our mind every now and then on the management of money to let you know it's not easy. I know what they tell you, just buy and hold. Okay, though. That's fine. Try buying and holding a stock that's down 50%.

Or 90, like some are in this bare market. By the way, not fly-by-night names, but names you've heard of. I'm bringing it up today because we believe here we have a cast iron stomach. What does that mean? From money, we were taught years ago. by William O'Neill and others I have studied to be wrong fast and be wrong small. I've read some of the great hedge fund managers hit five out of ten stocks, but it's what you do with your losers that separates returns,

the amount of money that can be lost. One hedge fund manager had said, I know a hedge fund manager that beats my pants off, in stock picking, but I beat his pants off in returns because he doesn't handle the losers well. And that's why we always talk to you guys about managing your risk. I've said to you before, I will never ever skydive. I'm never going to skydive. I am never going an airplane and jumping out with a parachute. I don't even care if it's a tandem jump with the greatest skydiver of all time, you know, where you like, they're on your, They're on your back, I think.

Is that how it goes? Why? Risk management. I'm never going to cross I-95, the highway. Risk management. I've told you recently, man, if I'm on the subways in New York City, I stay away from everybody. I stand up against the wall. I don't go near the tracks.

Risk management. And then there's the markets. Risk management. If you never lose big, you're always around. Then I get asked, well, wait a minute, if you're tight with your stops, what if you get 10 in a row wrong? Well, you know you're in the wrong market. That's number one.

And we're pretty good at recognizing markets. And I bring that up with you today because let me tell you what came up today. You had insane down-up, down-up action today with some individual. names, some individual names. I watched go up 4%, excuse me, open up down 4% or 5%, go up the 4% or 5% and then go back down the 4% or 5% and I'm thinking to myself, man, somebody had to sit through a 5% move in hours. I can't stomach that. And then there's the earnings reports that I always warn you about. Microsoft today, Microsoft. The Microsoft is down 7.5% today.

The Microsoft, the Google, I don't call it alphabet, is down 9% today. Storwards today. Not for the week, today. And then you got things like Facebook is down 64% in 11 months. Facebook. Now, in case you don't know, 11 months ago back in real time, own it for life. It's Facebook. They got billions of people at their site.

It's down 64%. Netflix, which is acting better. now is still down 57% from December. And these are big names. These are not small names. These are popular names. NVIDA down 63%, AMD, down 64%. Popular names. The ones that have to be in your portfolio, don't worry even if they have some bad times because they are who they are. And I'm just thinking to myself, people without strict rules and disciplines of knowing when things are topping out, bear markets, deep bare markets, how the hell do you hang? How do you live with that?

and it's all relative depending on what you got in it. But if you think about it, somebody who had 100 grand of Facebook 11 months ago is now 37 grand. And I was just thinking just in the micromanagement of today, which I don't usually do, I couldn't believe the moves. Chipotle,

Chipotle was up 60 bucks in the aftermarket last night. I think I reported that to you. It's down $103 today. total today six and a half percent and what I realize today because you know I'm a big talker do you know who too

myself I'm constantly querying myself quibbling with myself talking with myself about decision making and what I would have done and what I would not have done based on certain situations And what came up today is, thank goodness, I read about these hedge fund managers.

Some that said I pick five out of ten winners, but I know how to control the losers, and that's why my returns are better than people. Pick eight out of ten winners. Thank goodness, when O'Neill told me and told to everybody else that follows him, this is, and he talks seven and eight percent stop. I don't even go near that. Thank goodness I put that into studies, and I put it into play because I have to tell you,

how did I start this little missive? We believe we have great cast iron stomachs, but you know the only reason why we have the cast iron stomachs is because we know absent a big gap to the downside in something we own or some disaster happening where the market just opens up and swings up and swallows overnight, we have controlled risk very, very well based on strict rules and disciplines that does not say we're not going to be wrong, but does declare when wrong we're going to be wrong fast and be wrong small with outthinking, automatic.

Keep yourself in the game. know that if something drops 33%, it has to go back up 50% to get you back even. 50% drop, you've got 100% to get you back even. And of course, worse. Up next, today's insane market and lots more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge.

And by the way, just to put a bow tie on it, you know, I have these screens. If you ever came to my office, you can see these screens I have that we are able to follow everything in real time. And we're just stunned by some of the moves. In the day. In a day. Elon Musk has arrived at Twitter headquarters. I'm seeing video and it looks like that deal's done. They're closing the deal Friday at $54.20.

What a gargantuan overpayment. And we'll see what he decides to do with it. And I bring that up, speaking of Twitter. I once told you Twitter shut me down for a day. I said that Bernie Sanders' economic policy, that he loves the economic policy of communists. I said that. They shut me down for a day.

That same day, the Iranian mullers were called for the death to Israel, but they shut me down. Seriously? They shut me down. Anyway, my good buddy Gilmoral is one of the great guys in the business. They shut him down on Twitter last night, not because he did anything. He told them there were a couple of fake Twitter accounts that are, you know, masquerading as him.

Please shut them down. They shut his down also by accident. Nice. And Musk is buying this company? Anyway, you should follow Gill. And I'm going to give you his new Twitter feed. at Gilmo and Co G-I-L-M-O-A-N-D-C-O

At Gilmo and Co That's his Twitter feed Imagine that, you tell Twitter Hey, you got some fake Twitter accounts here Can you go shut them down? They shut you down. And Elon Musk is buying the company. Yeah, okay. Okay, dokey.

I guess when you got money to burn, So today, as I stated, let me just put it best. The market's going to close in one minute. I'm going to wait to the official close to give you another one of those insane days, but really the story of today. Microsoft, as I speak down 19.5. Google as I speak down $9.67. Microsoft on the day would be, come on little guy. That's the weekly. I take that back. If I get the daily, I can give you the number.

7.7% today, Microsoft. Google is, did I say, 9. Something. Of course, my computer locks up as I do that. Google down 9. Now, that may now sign like, oh, my God, 7. That's gargantuan from mega-cap names. That is gargantuan from mega-cap names. But amazingly, even with that, early in the day, the NASDAQ goes from down 200 to flat. The Dow goes up 350 points today. At the high today, 32-172. Actually, 32-172, that's 3.3. It was 335. Let me get that right. Yeah. It finished up three.

the NASDAQ finished down 228 when all was said and done. Unbelievable, whipsawing today. Early in the day, in spite of Microsoft, they were bouncing up. The software, the software ETF was up, and then they trashed it into the clothes. It was like the big tease on software early. Wow, look at that. And then boom, all over the place. Don't know what else to tell you.

And it happened today. Yields were down big. That's what's been juicing markets, yields being down. And they were down big and the market was moving? Well, and that didn't help by the end of the day, though the down much better. A lot better. A lot, lot better. And that's what I meant by starting the show.

Wow. Cass iron stomach. Five percent moves in a day. We don't own them. As you know, we're playing it close to the vest in this bear market and bear market rallies. We don't know how people do it. We really don't. We'll keep doing what we're doing. We know a bull market's going to come one day and not just in some areas. And I got news for you. Big biotech. Few names act well into earnings. Defense stocks. Really strong in the last few days. manage care, HMOs, some drug names, some insurance names, a smattering a few others, and then you had good reaction to some earnings. Wings stopped today up 20. Nice. I don't own any.

I never even mean there. But 55% earnings growth, 41% revenue growth said it's on my screen. Visa up nine. You know, Visa and MasterCard, they're bookies. good reaction numbers look pretty decent we'll stay on top of it Ameri Prize financial was down 12 in the aftermarket last night finished up to 14 today

but earnings down 11 not not as thrilled but as we go through earnings this is what we be watching today's market wrap brought to you by investment dash models.com that's Jim Rohraback one of the great market timers

no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of of the market with his proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models dot com dow up three s and p down 28 nazdak down 228 nasdaq down 264 nasdaq 100 socks down 28 i believe the socks at one time today if i am not incorrect hit 2433 24 57 that was a 57 points higher not the not the biggest uh transports were up 180 but i think they were up 370 at one time and that's because because the skewed relationship of Avis Rent-A-Car, which finished up three and a half today, but was up about 16 today. So that pulled in too.

But better action in the oils on higher oil prices. And as we mentioned, the areas that have relative strength. We'll see how long they have their relative strength. Up next. Yeah, we'll figure it out. This is the one only investor's edge. is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited

double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it

everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your country. You're Cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. with Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Yeah, we're waiting for earnings reports. I think Facebook's after the close. I don't see it just yet. Service now is after the close, a few others. Also reading a story here, and I actually thought this was a joke. Reuters, Tesla will face criminal investigation over self-trived.

car claims is under criminal investigation the US over claims that the companies electric vehicles can drive themselves but last year I find more than dozen crashes some of them fatal no that's a okay we'll see what comes in that boy boy oh boy Facebook oh here we go they missed expectations were 185 they came in at 164 revenues were about little bit better than expected but very little. So 164 on Facebook, that's versus a 322. Their earnings were down almost 50% year over year.

Stock's actually up three bucks in the aftermarket. Gee, it takes a 50% drop in earnings. Trying to see if anything else. One of the names we follow, 164, 185, revenues 2771. versus 2740, so just a little bit better. And sales were down year over year by about 5%. That's not good news. Ford reports, I got it down a little bit.

Here's a good blowup. Align tech. Close at 222. I got it at 178. Don't they have the, what is that, the Vizaline? I'm not sure exactly what it's called. They're into teeth. Anyway, so, and Facebook now in the aftermarket, I've got it down three bucks.

Yay. We'll throw a party. Anyway, we'll up to date you on that as we go forward. Anyway, we started the show talking about risk, risk management, cast iron stomachs. Today actually had me just saying, wow. Wow. And as you know, and again, this is all, no BS, we sold. I believe our last stock that we own may have been Microsoft. If it wasn't, it was the next to last. I believe, don't quote me on the exact number. It was like 330-ish probably, if not close, because, because we deem that it had broken down. We deem that it had broken down.

It's 231 now. These are the things we want you to remember because, by the way, Facebook's now down $10 in the aftermarket. Yeah. Lower's high end of this, that, the other thing. Markets not going to be too happy with that. But we called tops.

on all this stuff at the appropriate times, yet we keep being told that you can't time the market. Oh, yeah? Then how did we do it? And we did it in real time. So we just want you to remember all this. This whole year is a gargantuan lesson for us too. We'll never forget this year.

Since last November. And actually it started February. of 21 when all the bubbles started popping. Anyway, I'm sure these numbers will change overnight, and there's a lot more earnings to come out, and a lot more crap that gets said by all these companies. Also, of note, Kronos. Oh, it's one of those marijuana stocks.

One of the ones we warn you about, that since March of 21 has gone from 16 to 3, but actually hit a high of 25 and 19, 2019. The SEC charged them for improperly accounting for millions of dollars of revenues and for other accounting misconduct and multiple reporting periods. Yay. I got service now up 14 in the aftermarket initially. That stock is just another one that hits 707 a year ago.

It's 366 today. I got a 385 in the aftermarket. So actually up 19, it's now three. It's moving all around. 390, 385, 387. And that's that little bit of how we look at things, how we feel. Just remember, this ain't easy. This ain't easy.

And we bought into the counter-tren rallies in hopes. It's the real deal. The bottom, the one. And fortunately, we sold those counter-trent-tren rallies very timely. lost a couple, a couple of times, made some, a couple other times, but stunned, absolutely stunned. There hasn't been much bigger in the way of rallies. You had that good one in the summer, didn't have much leadership. You're getting a little bit of leadership right now is in the sectors I have mentioned to you.

But after that, not much. Oh, and the oils. Not all of them. So we'll see what tomorrow brings, and then you got Apple and Amazon after the, close and I just got to say, man, I hope they react well, whatever they say. It would be a change right now, especially in big area, the biggies. What else? I didn't watch the whole thing last night, but I was sent a couple of dozen, the Pennsylvania Senate. I have no comment on a medical condition, though, it is appropriate to comment on a medical condition of that young man who

had a stroke. And I give him credit for doing a debate because I know people have stroke and strokes and it's not easy. I care about everybody's health. I don't even know the guy. But when running for Senate seat, there's only a hundred of them, it matters to the future of this country. So I set aside his medical condition. His politics just absolutely suck. Take even the economics out of it. When you have a chance, go read up about how many people and what people he wants to take out of jail. I am not making this up when he says we should suspend some of the sentences of attempted murder, second-degree murder? I've always wondered about nut cases like that that I guarantee you they wouldn't want to put

those people living in their neighborhoods. So forget the medical for a second. And by the way, I'm no Dr. Oz fan at all. But this other dude, the opposite of everything I think, which is logic. Remember, the number one job of anybody State, local, county, federal To protect the citizens, safety You don't do that, you should be out

You know, like the governor New York and the mayor in New York City I should just be out You don't want to do anything to protect your citizens Go screw yourself Cash bail, let people out, 21 arrests And go out again and do it again and you know they're going to do it again and they're still nothing,

you're smoking some evil weed. And the people voting from, I think, more evil weed. Unless it happens to them. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relevant. and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today.

at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So I got Facebook down 11, from 129, 82 to 1 to 18 to quarter. I knew something was up when I saw those numbers, and the stock was up.

What's with that? But I have to tell you, service now closed at 366. I got it at 406 in the aftermarket. It's a good move. Keep in mind it was 406 just four weeks ago. 482, 8 weeks ago, 521, 12 weeks ago. 601 last March, 707 last November. But good one.

But Zuckerberg is not going to have a good day. Boy, those numbers were bad. And, you know, we've been on TV. a year ago saying we worry about Facebook because we were getting statistics sent to us how young people are just leaving it in droves. And I'm always thinking if you're losing young people, aren't they the future? And you got the, you know, I've never been on a TikTok before. TikTok, is that what it is?

I'll have to check it out. What is it, just short videos? And they came up, Facebook had Instagram do something called Reels, R-E-E-L-E-L-E-L. to mimic the TikTok, I guess. By the way, the elections in a couple weeks, you know what I can't wait for? Do you know what I can't wait for? No more texts, no more mail, no more signs, just go away.

We do believe, and we've been saying this all along, Republicans are 100% lock on the House. But how much? Don't know, but I will tell you this, just letting you know. With no bias, the left tried to make abortion the end-all be-all. The left tried to make January 6th into the end-all be-all. And we're not begrudging them for doing that. It's what they decided to do.

The people have voted and said, how much I have to pay for everything is the end-all be-all. my worry over my job is the end-all be-all the market plunging is the end-all be-all my safety is the end-all be-all that's really what's going on I think

and we got a couple weeks left right I think the Republicans probably going to get 30 house seats that's my guess the Senate if the Republicans had really good candidates, they would win the Senate. They got some suspect candidates. They still may win the Senate. You know, it's Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, a couple others.

We'll see what happens. Gridlock would be great. The ability of the president not to be able to hand out taxpayer dollars to people who he wants to curry favor with. Great. The ability for him to spend on hot air, great. You do know they put it 350 billion of our tax dollars and gave it to a guy named John Podesta for climate. Go look up John Podesta. He's just a Democratic hack. That side. You think there's going to be $1 accounted for? You know, they're telling us they're going to lower inflation, you know how? If you spend a few grand on solar, we'll give you a few hundred

bucks. That's what they're telling you. They're insane. So gridlock would make Gary very happy. Of course, as you know, there are executive orders they can get away with, which does not make Gary happy. So that's that for today. So let me a little recap. Market was insane today. Microsoft and Google trashed. Now, Facebook, guess what? I got it down 16 in the aftermarket to 113. That is unbelievable. Unreal.

It is going to break the lows, well, where he has, just about, of 18 on Facebook. Heading toward, oh, it's breaking the lows of 16, 2016. And we don't want you to forget this. O'Neill taught. past leaders of bull markets will become laggards and many will drop 70%. And we never believe them until we tested it out. We're like, whoa, and here we go again.

Tomorrow after the close, Apple and Amazon will keep fingers crossed. They can come out with something the market likes because right now market no like some of the big caps and they have influence on life in general. Otherwise, oils, managed care, HMOs, some drug names, some insurance stocks, auto parts retail, some defense names. Notice when we say some, that means not all.

Some of the big biotech. And a smattering of few things that don't fit into really any category. And of course, we've had some good earnings, reports, and reactions that will watch those. Otherwise, less than thrilled with a day where the yields drop markedly, but the Dow could not hold on to 350 points. Finished only up two. On a day where yields dropped markedly, the NASDAQ down 228, NASDAQ 100, 264, albeit, just so you know, the advance declines weren't so bad today.

They were actually pretty decent because of the smaller caps. Had a good day. I do want to mention they bounce some of the Chinese ADRs. They've been trashed. I do want to mention Better Day for the Solar's N-Phasey and pH, good reaction to their earnings. I do want to mention gold and gold stocks are in one of those counter trends as the dollar comes down and just a lot of jello moving on the plate today. It's the best way I can describe it.

All right, kids, we're traveling tonight. You have a good evening drive carefully. We'll be doing show tomorrow and Friday. And I'll be on with Varney and company tomorrow in 9 a.m. hour. Fox Business Network, check it out. Until tomorrow, you'll have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. it's quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. And until tomorrow, same time, we will be around for this great show. Hope you're enjoying.

Hope you're learning. Make sure you hug your children. Did I say that? Have a good night. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,

go to GaryK.com. Gary K.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply. access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.