Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Meta What!

Episode Date: October 27, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Thursday. It's October 27th. It's 2022. I'm sure we sound different today because today we are on the iPhone app doing the radio show. It's the greatest invention on earth. We have this little software program called Lucy Live,

and you can put it on your iPhone now. I put in my earbuds, and I just start talking away. And it sounds a little different from the other thing we do when I am in my offices doing the radio show. But we've listened back, and it comes through pretty decently. So that's that. Hope you're having a good day, ladies and gentlemen. In the last few days, and we're getting right to the point here today,

We know the hot buttons because of how much reaction we get from the audience. And that's in anybody that's on radio or TV. In case you don't know, the act of somebody actually taking the time out of their day, their busy day to email a radio show host or a TV personality, that is meaningful. To retweet, that's meaningful. You're taking time out of your day. And we can tell hot buttons by the amount, but also the type.

And yesterday and recently, we talked about sell sell rules, the ability to not hold on, get married to whatever asset you are involved in. And whether it's a stock, a bond, crypto, anything, all that stuff. Of course, it's different when you own your own home. Your house, where you live, that's much different. It's much different than a rental home, which you do for, investing and the amount of emails I received on me just talking about sell rules rules on selling and I bring that up today because I was watching a little tube and somebody had said something

about a certain investment bank that, how do I put this, for the first time ever, came off their strong buy or whatever they had on Facebook, meta platform. Now, I don't know when they put it on, but I gather they rode the stock up in the bull market. At one point, at one point, At what point I don't know. What I do know is the stock has gone. Listen carefully. And notice we don't say who. You got that?

We don't say who. We have no joy in any of this. What we just want to do is teach lessons, not only to you, but to us. We want to make sure that we remember these things. So Facebook meta platforms has gone from $384. It closed today amazingly, amazingly, $97.94 down $31.88, $24,000. $24,000. $24.28, $24.2.25% drop, drop. I'm a volume gain, meanings average volume is 30 million.

They did 229 million. And just so you know, that's sellers that were trapped. The market cap of Facebook at the close today is still $263 billion. 263, which means it had to be around $850,900 billion. And they stated their thesis had changed. So knowing that, and you know our motto, that in bare markets, you will get no help from Wall Street. And again, we say that with no joy at all. Knowing that you got to have, you must have fail safes.

What are those fail safes? Let me tell you mine. Sell. How's that? Fail safe. Well, how about, how about, how about a specific number that you don't get into big trouble? Whatever that number is, knowing a 33% drop you'd have to get back 50%. a 50% drop you have to get back 100.

You know how tough it is to get 100%. Do you know how tough it is to get 100? In this bare market, I have told you that we have bought into it in what we call the counter-tren rallies. We've been out most of the bare market. And the most we have been in, I think it's 20%.

I can safely tell you we made money on some of the plays. I can safely tell you we lost money on some. I can safely tell you on 5% position or a 10% position, 3%. That means I lose 3 tenths of a percent in account. Gary isn't that tight, well, that's knowing what kind of market you are in. And that's also about the weight of the evidence. As you know, we screen a ton of stuff and do what we call the weight of the evidence. Now, with stocks in bull markets, well, the hope is, as you're buying,

if you're buying correctly, you're not getting stopped out, but there's nothing that's flawless. Bill O'Neill said 7, 8%. Well, I have to tell you, if I am buying properly on pullbacks towards very important support levels, and I'm buying right off those support levels, and those levels are broken, I can take two and three percent. And then I get asked the question, how many times has the thing turned right back around? And you know what my answer is?

A few times. What do we do? Well, let me answer that with this. Some of my good gains throughout the decades have been on stocks I bought a second and third time to the best of my recollection because they break out fail and then they break out again.

Psychologically is that tough to do? Oh yes. We'll do a little bit more of this. Why? It seemed pretty darn important to you guys. That's up next and more. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

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Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, let's continue a little bit with this. so I buy something, it fails, I lose a few. But it goes again. Regoes, yeah, I just came up with a word. Regoes. Psychologically, that's not easy.

And simply why? You're buying it a second time? What if it fails the second time? Don't you look like a dufous to people that you're managing? Yes. But back to strict rules. Knowing that can happen sometimes. You can have one bad day in the market.

That takes everything. down. We had a flash crash a bunch of years ago. You remember that? Crushed everything. Came right back. But stops could have been hit left and right. But my bigger point is, and I want you to listen carefully because we know what's going on out there. We scan 1,500 to 2,000 stocks every night. We know what they've done. And when we have to talk, a Facebook, Facebook, wait a minute, this is a stalwart. That's the effing fang. It's down 72.3% from the highs. And to be clear, it's down 72.3% for a reason.

The last four quarters earnings year over year, minus 5, minus 18, minus 32, and a whopper of minus 49. And why they change the name is beyond me and why they're doing this meta stuff beats the hell out of me. And of course, there's other things with the insider selling like crazy over the last year, on and on and on. But my point is, we didn't own Facebook at the highs. We did not. I can safely tell you, if we did, we would have been out somewhere around 320. And that is if we were in profits at the time and just given some back. I can tell you

there was really no reason to own it at that juncture. I take it back. We would have been out at, I had to go back an extra three months. We'd have been out of 360. And let's say you weren't out at 360. On February 3rd, 22, the stock,

the day before closed at 323, the next day it opened, not making this up, 237. Now, you know what? happens on that day. It's cheap. It's a value. It's one time. It's Facebook. Billions of people on their website. Not knowing one of the rules is when a major league company gaps down on a worsening outlook, one that's overowned, overloved, and over leverage, it is going lower. It's going lower.

That's the way it works. it's going lower. So if you weren't out beforehand, you're out of 238, but you're saying to stuff, wait a minute, it was just 384, it's 238. I'm not selling, and that's because you don't have rules on gaps to the downside. And now it's 97. And of course, the list goes on and on and on. And yesterday I did this little dissertation with you. I said to you, I'm never going to skydive.

Risk management. nothing ever's nothing's probably going to happen but risk management if I'm on the ground without a parachute I can't get up have a problem with the parachute you get my point I think I also mentioned I would never walk across I 95 while cars are coming at me at 80 miles an hour risk management so for each and every one of you that have been caught up with the listen carefully because I know how it works don't worry everything's okay it'll come back it's a good company start thinking for the future or else because maybe the bear market's over maybe it isn't here's what I'll promise you there's going to be

another bare market again. And you just want to learn not to give back too much in bare markets. And how do you do that? Strict sets of rules that get you out, that you're always in the game, that you never have to be crapping in your pants. Boy, I own 50 grand at a stock. It's now 20. And you know what happens at a given point in time, by the way? Here's some more psychology. You're down so much.

You know what the famed last line is? Screw it. I don't care if it even goes to zero. We've studied all this. We really have. preventative medicine, Mui Importante, that's all I think about when I buy something.

Where am I getting out if I'm wrong? That's all I think about. And where did that come from? The Greats, the Paul Tudor Jones, look them up. The drunken millers, look them up. Soros, look them up. I have this video of Soros saying, It's a much different animal when you're up versus when you're down and you are investing.

We learned from these people. We study these people. We study these greats. And we keep the most important word. Focus. Where am I getting out if I'm wrong? And as I said yesterday, some of the greats are wrong five out of ten times and still make a launch. Up next, today's market and another dozy of an aftermarket. I'm Gary. This is the one

only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't

talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. I must tell you, I really don't even know how to describe today's market. I really don't even know how to describe today's market. We have had an earning season. You know when I used the... I don't know if I came up with this or heard it from someone. Jello moving on the plate.

I must have heard it from somebody. I couldn't make up. I'm not that genius. It's a great line. Today was one of those days. We're just... wicked, jello moving all over the plate. And you know, when somebody reports earnings, you know, we dime deep.

And, you know, the funny thing is we always ask questions, why is this thing up so much? Or why is this thing down so much? It doesn't make sense. That's where we came up with. It's not the news. It's how the market reacts to news. the way, I stole that one. That's from the great Stan Weinstein. And if you never had his, go get his book, by the way. It's dated. It has like the GM indicator in there. I think it may be

from the 80s or 70s. It's the secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets by Stan Weinstein. Go get it. Absolutely go get it. So I'm going to try and describe today. it was so weird. First off, Facebook, that's no help. The day before, Microsoft and Google, that's no help. And of course, what that means is the big influences for the NASDAQ1 100. So I'm going to give out the final numbers. Then I'm going to try and describe. I'm not so sure I can. And then we got the aftermarket. Right now, I'm waiting on Apple. But Amazon reported, and wait to you hear this one in the second. So the market wrap is brought to you by Investment Dash Models.com. That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicator. go check it out investment dash models.com the dow was up 194 but it was up over 500 but with the

dow up 194 the s&p was down 23 well the nasdaq down 178 the nasdaq 100 down 214 because not only did facebook facebook coming in today was only two and a half percent of the nasdaq 100 but microsoft drop more drop more and just semiconductors drop and I must tell you though the next part of the equation I want to mention is McDonald's in the Dow up eight and a half today that's about 55 Dow earnings were down three revenues down five thus the question why is that up now if it was by itself, but last quarter's earnings, earnings, revenues were down three. Beats the hell out of me. In the Dow, Caterpillar, up 15. That's a good hundred Dow points. Can't argue their numbers. Their numbers look pretty darn good. Honeywell up six. So between the three, you pretty much had the whole Dow today,

but then you go through other things and just not as good. But some, wicked action when I say. You had O'Reilly Automotive up 33. Remember, we've been telling you these auto parts dealers, there's only four of them we watch. The earnings only up 14,

revenues up 9, which is fine. Up 35. Auto zone up 98. Keep in mind that's only up 4%. It's a $3, what is it, a $2,500 stock. So that group's pretty good. And then you had the other

side. Facebook. Aspen Tech, which has been a new high ground. That down 13. Align Tech. Down 40. Wolf. Simple Wolf.

Down 19. Was down 25. And there's been like three semiconductor stocks that have held up well. Wolf, another one was symbol PI. Wolf was down. 18%. P.I. Up 30%

today. Why do we tell you we hesitate to do anything right before earnings? Just those two reasons.

Just those two names. Cayman both looked the same good relative strength. One down 18, one up 30.

Raymond James. Excellent brokerage firm. Earning's down 2%. Last quarter down 14, the quarter before down 3.

Why was that up six, seven percent today? And we're not indicting anybody. We're just always asking questions. So just all over the place. But when all said and done, and I sent out a little note to my peeps today, just letting you know the Dow is up 400 and the S&P's flat, put that in your file manager. Something to that extent.

Those are the divergences we worry about, which takes us to Amazon. closed at 111. 89 in the aftermarket. Wow. Wow. Wow. That's going to lose 220 billion of market cap. I don't need to go into the exact numbers.

You could go look. We're waiting on Apple. That'll come in a little bit. I think we'll still be on the show. But there's another one. So now you've got Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook. What's the fang? By the way,

Fang, Microsoft wasn't in the fang? Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google. I think there was another A. Apple. I always thought Microsoft was in the fang. And we'll see what Apple comes out with. But wow.

Wow. Wow. And we'll see what that means to tomorrow. But I can tell you the NASDAQ 100 is not having a good day in the aftermarket because of Amazon. And the Dow, I got it down about 170 in the aftermarket, but the NASDAQ 100 is down about like 500 in comparison. And then let's see what Apple does.

So, wow. Wow. Two Thursdays ago, the market reversed. You had a confirming day. Last Friday may have hit the brick wall. Not sure, because underlying some of this big stuff, some good moves on earnings. But let me repeat, wow, Amazon now, off the highs, let's take a look. The all-time high 188, it's now 88.

And this is why we started the show the way we started it. Stunning reaction to earnings, ladies and gentlemen. Absolutely stunning. And there's other after markets going on right now, some up, some down. But the best way I can describe it, stunning. Surprises, even I. Surprises even I. So I want you to remember a lot of what we're saying.

It's imperative. Really is. Up next, we'll see if Apple comes out. Hopefully that'll be better. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreaker. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. And by the way, it's not just these names. Here's one. And this is wild.

always monolithic power. You ever hear of that? Probably not. Simple MPWR. This was one of the semiconductors that were holding up very well back in August, back near the old highs. At 541, it closed at 329 today in two months. And in the aftermarket, it's 283. And I get asked by people, why are you playing it close to the vest? Because... That's my answer. And as I'm going through aftermarket, ah, here's one.

Here's a retailer. Whenever I do my scans, you know what I say about this retailer? Well, the high was 450, and it's trading at 360. And by the way, that's one of the stronger retail. Decker's outdoor closed at 360. I got it at 326.

Apple reported. So far, I have the stock, which was already down four bucks and change today. It's showing down another six in the aftermarket. But it's all, it's going to be all. No, it's all over the map. Yeah, down another five in the after market. Four, six, five. And nevertheless, it's down.

And we'll see how that plays out. So Apple reported. And let me just say the Amazon numbers were not happy. The Apple numbers not happy. So the big, gigantic, monolithic tech. And we'll see what happens overnight. Apple beat by two cents. Revenues beat, but obviously they said something market didn't like.

And, you know, I think I know what it is. Apple, they beat by two cents, but earnings were only up 3%. I don't know if that's going to do the truth. trick. Revenues were up about 7%. Not the worst, but so far the market's not liking it. My goodness gracious. And Amazon numbers were just staggeringly bad. On lowered guidance already. So tomorrow morning is going to be a little roughed up day, kids. On earnings, on big names. Welcome to my world. It's a blast. Wish I had better news. and may I state for the record

stunned. Okay, iPhone revenue came in light. That's the Apple story. Have I thrilled you? So in the aftermarket, let me just tell you what the story is. The Dow's only down 100 in the aftermarket. The S&P

will be right now down about the equivalent of 350 Dow points. NASDAQ 100 will be another rough day. So I hope you're taking what we're saying to you to heart. We know what you've been taught, we know what they've been telling you about long-term holds. We agree. We absolutely agree. Make sure what you're holding is still working long-term and know some rules. Just know some rules. In bare markets, big leaders of the past bull will drop on average 70%.

That doesn't mean every one of them, and the bigger names will tend to hold up better. But I got news for you. Facebook's down over 70%. Netflix was down over 70% at the lows. I gather Amazon's probably in the 40s now. Apple's probably toward 30s. And those are good ones. And then they're the ones, a ton of them, down 50s, 60, 70, some 80, some 90.

And we just don't want you to forget this. Now, remember, this can change overnight. There's conference calls. Apple's trading like, you know, it's lightened up like a pinball machine. By the way, in the last five minutes, it moved probably $30 billion in market cap. So who knows? I will tell you, it is down in the aftermarket. Just came back three bucks.

Still down five in the aftermarket. total of almost 10 for the day. And we've had a two-week rally and look what's going on. And again, things will change overnight, but what doesn't change, what shouldn't change, is to make sure you have some fail safes. You know, don't go skydiving.

Don't cross I-95. By the way, Apple, five minutes ago was down, to 136, it's back to 142. But still down 7 on the day, which is a bunch. That'll change to. But Amazon's staying down. So welcome to the world. It'll be quite the interesting tomorrow. And now most of the biggies are done.

Well, the real biggies are done. There's going to be a few more. And we'll see the outcome. Oh, I forgot. Yields were down again today. Oil prices up a little bit today. Remember what we've said about yields being down. Yields and oil prices coming down fundamentally for you, the consumer, nothing but good. For the consumer. Let's hope that continues. All right, that all said.

Serenity now. You'll have a great evening and drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. You hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. Tomorrow, I believe I'll be on with Neil Cavuto in the noon to 2 p.m. hour on Fox business. And of course, we'll be right back on the iPhone doing this radio show with you and just trying to help. Thanks for joining us. Same time tomorrow. Travel safe, be well. Keep your head on straight. Peace out all.

Bye bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact. with Gary, go to Garykay.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.