Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Micron and Target Blues

Episode Date: November 16, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host day.

Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is what? Wednesday, 16th, November, 2012. Hope you're having a great day. We are in our offices in Rome, Italy. And may I state for the record, they're not really offices.

It's just where I take my office with me. But we're here at Rome, Italy, hanging out, little pizza, little pasta, little business, little roaming around. I think we did 25,000 steps today, like 10 or 11 miles. But we're watching the markets because that's what we do. 3.30. We're in front of the screens. We do our thing. I did some TV today from here. I love technology. Ladies and gentlemen, we're serious about every dime you have whether you are or not.

We've been saying that since we started this show. So we want to start out first. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our Twitter feed. You should follow us on Twitter. Just go to Twitter, put our name in, or press the button at garyk.com. You can email us, just be nice. And we posted it also go on a bunch of podcasts.

podcast apps. And we've got a couple of the things we're going to be doing. We're going to put up a YouTube. So when we do the radio show, we're going to show charts while we do the radio show. So we plan that. That's going to roll out in the next few weeks. So three years ago, two years ago, one year ago, six months ago, three months ago, one month ago, a week ago, we have been pleading, pressing, begging, yelling, screaming, screaming, Joling about the bubbles. We told you up front where the bubbles were. We weren't kidding. We told you in spite, in spite of celebrities and athletes and mucky mucks, that the coins were nothing more than a big, gigantic bubble. brought to you by the clowns at the central banks. They don't create the coins.

They enable them. Bubbles come from ridiculous easy policy and the ability to get access, the ability to get access to all kinds of money at ridiculously low prices, zero percent interest rates. And you never know what's going to show up in what form.

We have done little dissertations with you. about dog crap, it can be dog crap, it can be a leaf, it can be a branch, it can be anything. Remember, greed is a very, very, very tough emotion. And when things are extremes and when people see others making money, they want to join the bandwagging. And as I told you, and this is a true story, when GameStop was going through that crazy move from four to 400 and change. The day it went from 150 to 400. I get a call from like an 80 year old lady. Should I be buying it? I said, do you know where the stock was? She goes, what do you mean? I got it was four bucks weeks ago. It's now 350 at the time. She says, what if it goes to a thousand?

That's what we mean by crazy. And then you get the goblins. What do we mean? What do we mean? Most hedge funds that decided to get into crypto, most funds that decided to get into crypto, most of the mucky mucks decide to get into crypto got into it in the last three years. They're getting killed. And on the way down, you know what they've been doing? They've been telling you to buy. Don't worry, everything's okay. They kiss the ass of this FTX guy, this moron, this sleaze bag, this scumb bag that's

hopefully rots in jail for a very long time. The New York Times did a puff piece on him yesterday. Billions of dollars are gone, lost history out of here. And why are we bringing up again today? It's worsening. Remember what we told you about greed and leverage? Greed creates leverage. What's that?

Well, I have 100 grand in the bank. but I'm going to buy 150 grand of it. Now I'm going to buy 200 grand of it. The good part about it is, if it doubles the 400 grand, you only use the 100. The problem is, if it drops by 50%, you lose all your money. And guess what we're finding out? These freaking geniuses were levered up the wazoo.

And we told you they would be. Why? That's just how it works. That's how it works. That's how it's always worked. I should have written a book. I'm a moron that I didn't write a book. Everything we told you on this show, on TV.

And you know what? Nobody calls on us for interviews. You know who they're calling? People in the crypto business. It's the funniest thing I've ever seen. Yeah. The doubleest funny thing I've ever. ever seen. I saw an outtake. One of these crypto guys was on CNBC this morning and was asked by

Becky Quick, are you in Bali because you're worried about getting indicted and there's no extradition from Bali? No. Yeah, sure, right. Well, now guess what? The latest. Class action lawsuit against Larry David, Tom Brady, Naomi Osaka, Kim Kardashian, Stefan Curry. I don't think a lawsuit can ever win anything from any of these people because all they did was endorse something. They're not criminals. They're just idiots, adults. And as we've told you, we've tried to contact people that were taking salaries with

bitcoins and stuff. And now, yes, what do you think is going to happen with Bitcoin, Ethereum? Remember we told you. We thought the only reason they weren't down to nothing is because they were held by a select few very, very big people. And if they sold, they'd be killing each other. Guess what? What about if they're forced to sell?

Guess what's happening? So we don't know where it ends up. We just hope you listened. You know, we had some clients that came into us, transferred to us that had crypto. I think it was like nine months ago. we sold it all immediately. One of them called up,

you sure you want to do that? I said, I'm sure. All right, we're going to go by your judgment. And I got news for you. When I sold, you don't know if it's going to rally up first. What we did know, ultimate outcomes. It's worthless. It's a freaking coin.

It's meaningless. Oh, but isn't you replaced the dollar? Oh, yeah, sure. Let's make a coin. Let Dennis Rodman make a pot coin. Mark Cuban made a coin It went to zero the next day And that guy's a brilliant dude

Miami coin Down 97% Yet just months ago Miami had this big convention on crypto The place was sold out You know what they were there for the people Please tell us everything's going to be okay Because they were down big money already

And you know what they were told Oh don't worry everything's going to be okay So now this mud hound is stuck in the Bahamas, they won't let them go. We'll see how it plays out. I'm just letting you know. I think it gets worse. And I got news via.

The Ethereum and the Bitcoin today had another big drop. So did the Coinbase. So did the micro strategy and the rest of the stuff. And we can only say again, we hope you listened. We weren't geniuses on this. We just know bubbles. We said it about the NFTs. We said it about marijuana stocks.

We said it about the SPACs, the ridiculous price IPOs. The electric vehicle companies, the battery companies, the cellular companies, this, that, and the other thing companies, the short squeeze stocks that we could not believe happened. Recently, the Hong Kong stocks, one went from 7 to 2,500, it's back to 10. Probably going to 1. We hope you listen. I have no idea what happens tomorrow. I just let you know it had another bad day. and some more exchanges now

are telling people they can't redeem their money imagine you have my money I want redemption no imagine if you went to your local bank you had 100 grand in a little money market fund or a savings account or whatever

hey I need a 50 grand no you can't have it guess what that's what's happening with crypto now all the pins are being pulled all the leverage is now causing bigger and bigger drops. Don't think for a second the politicians weren't involved either. Up next, Micron, Target, what's to worry?

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. All right, let's get a little stock-specific. Target today was down another $23.48 to $155.50. It was $2.70 last November. 255 was the high in April. Then it crashed. They had inventory control problems or inventory prom or this, that, and the other thing.

The latest, huge losses, they're saying because of shoplifting and because of inflation. People cannot afford certain things. thing. So Target had a lower prices more than they wanted to, and they got beat up. So the stock was down about 23.5% today. Excuse me, 13.1% 23.5 bucks. What does that mean? Didn't Walmart just do better? Walmart announced a 3% earnings growth. Target announced a 49% drop. What's going on there. Well, first answer, I don't know. Second answer, Target's pretty big. It's not a fly-by-night. They do $100 billion in revenue. 110, we'll call it. They've been getting it all wrong.

They got it all wrong. Beats the heck out of me. All I know is, if Target is saying, you know, our customers, and they're very good at gauging, because of inflation, well, we've got to keep prices down and eat it, or we ain't selling it, and that's really hurt profits. In other words, and I'm going to simplify it, Halloween, you know those bags that used to cost 1099 of these little Hershey's chocolates you can get in these sorted amounts, the little ones? they were going for 1459 Halloween this year from 1099

now maybe small oh it's a bag of chocolates but when it's everything and I guess Target decided you know we ain't going to move anything unless we do something about pricing guess what

other retail stocks hit today I don't know what it means in sympathy all I know is I'm not so sure that's good news. But I have one that's a little bit bigger that I believe is bigger. As you know, for a very long time we have been telling you watch the semiconductors and why is that?

Well, very simple. It's in everything. The semiconductors are in everything. Computers. Phones. All kinds of consumer electronics. refrigerators, wash of dryers, appliances, cars, trucks, planes, trains, anything that moves. So they matter.

Well, Micron, and you can go look it up, they make DRAMs. And flash memory. Memory. For chips, use them computers. and computer electronics and stuff like that. The best way I can explain it to you, maybe I should just read it verbatim and why it's important.

I want you to listen carefully. The semiconductors, the Sox drop 119 today, not the end of the world because we just had a pretty decent move up. But Microm is reducing. They're called Wafers. not vanilla wafers, the starts by 20% in response to market conditions.

They say that the market outlook for calendar 23 has weakened and in order to significantly improve their total inventory in the supply chain, that they must need to shrink supply and significantly lower than previous estimates. They talked about something called capbacks, capital expenditures are going to be way down. You know what companies those are?

Lamb Research, KLE 10 Corps, applied materials, MKS instruments, a few others. And guess what they did today to the semiconductor stocks? Lamb Research down 26, 36, my bad. Let's just say they were down big. Now why do I bring this up to you? Because the semiconductors of led up and down for a very, very long time. And guess what? Guess what led the market up in the last week? Remember, NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100, new yearly lows last Wednesday.

Right at it. A bunch of stocks at new yearly lows. And then yields came down, markedly. The dollar came down. We told you that's what juiced it up. But here lies the near-term worry. Just the near-term worry. We'll see.

Today, the 10-year yield plunged again to 3.692 from 3.799. That's a huge one-day drop and that's on top of the drops we have seen recently. Every time yields have dropped, the market has done well. For that reason, well, today's market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Moore back, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment dash models.com. The Dow was down 40. No big deal. Why? Because the Dow lower rates. But the NASDAQ was down 174. NASDAQ 100 was down 172. The SOX was down 119.

On and on and on and on. Micron. Micron. So we'll see NVIDIA's reporting after the close. We'll see what happens there. We'll see what that brings. But this is of very big importance. We do not listen carefully to this next line.

We do not want to get to the point. We're bad earnings. Trump's lower yields. We have bad earnings, sends markets down. Even though yields keep going down, we do not want to see that in any way, any shape, any form. That's all. It's just one day. It's a stock.

NVIDIA is up after hours. Still down overall on the day, but including after hours, it's better. So maybe tomorrow, better. We'll see. Up next, much more. This is the one only investors, Ed. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

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America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

Uh, by the way, our NVIDIA reported, estimates was 70 cents they came in at 58 cents going forward they see revenues of 5.88 to 6.12 in the next quarter estimates were 6.14 so they missed and missed stocks up in the after hours I got it closing at 15930 I got it 164 it was down 730 today so for total for the day it's down about 290 it's helping for futures on the NASDAQ up a little bit. And Cisco's up in the aftermarket, yay. Comatose stock, but still up in the aftermarket. So we'll see what Tamar brings.

Let me just repeat something. We do not want to get to the point. We're earnings, Trump's, lower yields. But we will save for the record again. Nice to see yields come down even more today. That's big time stuff. I'm looking at Cisco. Earnings flat.

Stocks still up in the aftermarket about two bucks. Not a bad move. Revenue growth on Cisco. Let's see if I can find that bad boy. Look at us doing the play-by-play. Revenue's 13. they were up a few percent. That's all you can expect out of Cisco at this juncture. So rough day today. Let's see what Nvidia can do tomorrow. The numbers are crappy.

Anyway, you cut it. But keep in mind the stock hit a higher at 347 last November. It closed at 159 today. So maybe it's just tired of going down. And of course, if Nvidia's stock is up, tomorrow, they're going to be reporting his good earnings. The earnings are terrible, and they missed. Earnings 58 versus 117 last year. That's what, a 50% drop? How's that good? So be careful what you hear and pay attention to what we see. Man, earnings down 50%. Revenue, let's see. Oh, better than expected. Whoopi do. 5.93 versus 7.1. Revenue down 15% year over year. And numbers don't get any better going forward. We'll see how it trades overnight. So I want to make sure you understand again. The market's rallied up. The risk on market has rallied up since Thursday off of a big plunging

yields and the dollar. That's great news. Why? Cost of capital goes down. Simple as that. You've seen what's happened in the housing market. You've seen mortgage rates. You see the difference in cost. It's terrible. So coming down is good news.

Markets reacted to it. We do not want to get to the point where I'm coming on this show and saying, yields were down a stick today. The Dow is down 200. That is not a prediction. We are not saying that's going to happen. We're saying we don't want to get to that point. Other areas today, it's quite interesting.

You know how we told you that the relative strength areas in the market were coming down since Thursday? As the risk on areas rallied? Well, the risk on areas came down today. Guess what bounced? You got it. The managed care. McDonald's.

Some of the boring stuff. The staples, consumer staples, food, beverage, and all that. So quite the wickety. Very tough market. And as we've told you, under no uncertain terms, we have told you the toughest markets of the bare market rallies. Oh, wait a minute, are we out of the bare market, Gary?

It doesn't matter. Pay attention. That's all. Pay attention to price. This hardly still, not a lot of leadership. the moves we have just saw things coming off the bottom. Some things better than others. IBM is at a new yearly high.

Go figure. We think that has to do with the Dow's. Park the money in the bigger names. Not much more than that. And no, we don't think a lot of these down names have earnings power to really get them going in a big way, shape, or form going forward. But they are definitely outperforming right now. Our high beta growth name that's rallied up a little bit in the last few days, got smoked a bit today. And again, we want to repeat something.

If a stock drops 50% and rallies up 20, it's still down 40. If a stock drops 60% and it's still down 52. A stock that's down 70% and rallies up 20 is still down 64. You will get some unbelievable percentage rallies in the most bombed out names. If you can catch them, God bless you. They're pretty much random. Just know if something's in a main downtrend or not. The big picture.

It'll keep you out of trouble. Any and every day of the week. Too many people are worried about, Oh, what happened today? What happened in an hour? I love the day traders. I've only met like three unbelievably great day traders in my life. Most all that I know, besides that, went broke.

That's not easy. I don't play that game. And I work hard at this. I'm hearing a lot of people saying, oh, it's seasonality. We're going to rally the rest of the year. Good, let's see. Let's see. Oh, we expect in the first quarter this to happen, the second quarter?

Yeah, sure, right. Ask me what I'm having for dinner tonight. And I can help you out. You have got to be careful. The loudest noises and the loudest voices of the last year or two has been in crypto. And now they're eating crow. I'm not going to mention names, some very famous names, that we mentioned when they got in. but we don't dance on people's bad fortune.

We don't want anybody losing money. Well, the crooks, maybe. We do believe these people believed. But some of the most brilliant minds got caught up in this. There were some brilliant people that got caught up in this in a very big way. Name brand funds that were. into this and are taking the big write downs because of this all they had to do was ask us and I would hand them the book extraordinary popular delusions in the madness of crowds and they would have learned

when you're investing your money make sure there's a backstop and by the way you had Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger telling you about this but you know what when it was going up They were just doofuses. They knew nothing. They ain't doofuses anymore. But unfortunately, a couple of trillion bucks has gone poof. I think that's about how much got involved in it. And now they're getting the two biggies.

The ETH Ethereum down 93 cents today to $7.13. The Bitcoin down 48 cents to $9.20. Coinbase down six and a half to $49. Mike was strategy down 5 to 166. Go look where the new highs on these things were. Stunning crap going on, ladies and gentlemen. Up next. Hey, what's happening in Washington, D.C.?

Of course. I got to talk about that. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge.

With Gary Culpa. And what once again, two investors. Well, there's my rush. I have some opinions on what we're seeing in the political sphere right now. We told you on this show that we thought the Senate was going to be up for grabs. We were not sure. We did think momentum was heading in the Republicans way. We told you we thought the Republicans would win the House, but we thought they would win by. a much wider margin than they're going to have with the House. At the same time, we said to you, but we do have one big worry. We stated this to you. I thought there was a group of Republican candidates that were just terrible. Terrible.

And of course, as we have always said to you in politics, everything is excused by each side. I remember when Bill Clinton had his little thing in the 90s with monoccurts. Lewinsky being accused of rape. I'm just reporting the news, accused of rape. The head of now, the national organization of women at that time was Patricia Ireland. She was on with Larry King one night and Larry King says, aren't you upset with Bill Clinton? And her answer was basically, well, he's our right kind of politics.

She had no problem with saying that. A man being having a relationship with a young girl. girl, you know, Me Too, movement, and being accused of rape. The National Organization of Women, that's one example, which takes us fast forward. Donald Trump says John McCain wasn't a hero because he got caught, but he's for the military. Recently, he has made some serious racist comments about Elaine Chow. used to be on this show all the time under the Bush administration. She was Secretary of Labor every time they came out with an employer report.

She came on this show. Purely racist talk by Trump. Go look. It's excused by certain people on that side. No big deal. That's what we mean by that. We just gave you two examples. As we have stated, we're not in anybody's tank.

We can't stand anybody. We just stand on principle. 31 trillion of debt says so. We've even said to you, we would not be surprised that all these people cursing each other out in front of the camera are laughing it up behind the camera and drinking champagne, which takes me back to Donald Trump. We've pulled no punches with him. we have complimented him. We get accused of only putting him down, which is not true.

We complimented him on Israel. The tax cuts, the backing of police versus the other side and their insanity of defund the police and the stupidity. But Donald Trump

set the record for debt under his four years. Set the record for debt, unforgivable. Tariffs. Terrible. And he lied about him. Oh, tariffs are paid by China. No, they're not, they're paid by the American people in business. And then the dozens and dozens and lies. And then the big moment, I call it the Wimp moment. The sore loser moment. He lost the election. We still get emails by Trump backers saying he won the election. that we need to watch this movie about the mules and this, that, and the other thing. Whatever. We're not going to argue that point. We are going to state that the man is a sore loser.

And to this day is a sore loser. And he has created other people that are sore losers like this woman in Arizona that just lost. And it's by no coincidence that most of the people, people that was sore losers lost in the election they should have won. Joe Biden's popularity is a little bit lower than root canal. Yet the Democrats completely outperform. Inflation, Afghanistan, and just plain old Joe Biden's another just 50 year in Washington, DC moron. Yet all of just about all of Trump's picks, night night, and then he's now running for president again. I don't want him running for president again. I think there's a better

lineup out there that don't have to deal with what I think is just too much. That's my take. And we know you the people that love Trump, we respect you 1,000 percent. We hope you respect our opinion too. We can't have loose cannons. We can't have people saying racist remarks out of nowhere. We can't have people denying elections. He's saying Carrie Lake won yet last night in Arizona. What are you kidding me?

Our prediction is he's not going to make it to the prime. too much against them now. New York Post didn't even put his announcement on the front cover. They put it at the bottom just in words and covered it in page 26. In case you don't know, New York Post is not left wing. And everybody has just had it up to the ears. All his cabinets coming out, giving it to him. Other politicians, which I'm no fan of, giving it to him.

I'm just giving you a prediction. I don't think he's going to last. And frankly, I'm surprised he announced. He also mishandled the announcement also. Announced it right before the election that he was going to make the announcement. Shouldn't have done that. And then he went after Ron DeSantis.

What the hell is with that? So we'll see how it plays out. We'll keep covering it. I hope he gets back to his golf courses, which, by the way, are the best in the world. And I appreciate his four years and his try. I think time's up. We'll see.

He can very easily win. You have a great evening. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like I do, simple procedure. Well, I'm in Rome, so a little pizza and pasta. But when you get home, make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. Take care all. Have a great night. Peace out. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary. go to Gary.com. That's GaryKK.com.