Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Miserable Into Year End.

Episode Date: December 28, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's December 28th, and don't we want December to be over by now? Well, for us, not so bad, but for most, not so good. Thanks for being here, ladies and gentlemen, as we head into the end of the year. This is Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kulp.

I'm Hansman Buffed as usual. Serious talk about you and everything with a little comedy injected. But right now, I really can't throw a little comedy into the soup at this juncture. May I state for the record. And yesterday on the show, we started the show by saying to you, we're going to hit you right between the eyes. Well, we're going to do it again today. By the way, my dog. is sitting right at my feet.

I'd even know he was here. My little dog. So we hit you right between the eyes yesterday. We're doing it again today. Why? Because we're here to do everything possible to convey to you how important it is during bare markets to protect your capital at all costs. When bubbles bust to protect your capital at all costs,

while the rest of the world is telling you, don't worry, everything's okay. Do you know they got a jackass on TV today? buy crypto a guy you know where I'd like to kick him right I'd like to kick him so hard that he is singing soprano for the rest of the year and into next year

I don't know why they let these people on TV they're losing their butts they have no control of nothing they don't understand the bubble is popped and if anybody listens to that person it makes me ill they did that again But I digress.

We have given you specifics and specific signposts where trouble lies. As the best eyes in the business, the best technician on earth, the best technicians on earth, we mean business. We have proven it time and time again getting the big picture right. Yeah, the small moves What happens in the next two days That's not easy, but the main trends in the big picture And then at important moments And we can go all the way back to February 21

When we told you the bubbles were popping from climactic moves To where we are now And we remain stunned We told you up front that in bare markets Past leaders on average will drop 70% from the highs we're stunned that it's happened again. We knew it would. Nobody believed us.

They're believing us now. We'll get into what's next in a little bit, but we've got to deal with the evidence at hand. So let's do it. First and foremost, just recently, a few Mondays ago, which was December 5th. That was the day we said to you, we are now worried again.

After all, we had a counter-tren rally. December 5th, we set it on TV. That was a Monday. And we said it here. In specific, we stated the reason why. And that was financials had topped with regional banks topping badly. There's no way in Haiti's. markets can rally if financials are going down.

They can hold up, but if financials are coming down, you have hit the wall. And since that time, in combination with that was the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000, the risk appetite indices, where we tell you the big money flows in bull markets and the big money runs away from in bear markets. wasn't even able to get off their butt while the Dow had rallied much better. We explained to you specifically it is negative when the Dow leads and the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 doesn't. It reminded of us, it reminded us of many other times in the past of what we call the institution's parking money. De-risking, getting out of the risky names, getting out of the risky areas and parking themselves in, Merck, Procter & Gamble, Johnson and Johnson, Smuckers, Hershey's, General Mills, Post Cereals, Pepsi.

And guess what happened? Exactly that. But we used the words, we even said to you these words, but this type of move will have a shelf-flop. And soon as they hit the wall, look out. They hit the wall. The NASDAQ easily gave way to the point where it's been teasing the bare market lows already. In where Apple is at the bare market low, where Tesla has crashed over the last few weeks. and on and on and on and on. And as we head into the end of the year, it's a tough call.

You never know, maybe a bounce more or whatever. But you know all we've got is the big institutions continuing to de-risk. Get me the hell out of here. We don't want to partake. We are in recognition that another leg down is coming. We're in recognition is what we talk. you a bunch more new yearly lows in individual stocks before the indices, which usually presages the indices. That's not hard to figure out, right? And that's what happened, leading us into

today. And it worsened. And I will tell you, surprisingly so. We would think they do their darnness to hold it up into the end of the year. They can't even do that. They can't even do that. They can't even do that. And now they took areas that have been holding up. They're taking them out to the woodshed. And that's bad news. The drop in the market is now broadening out. It's not just sector specific. It's broadening out to everything. And you need to know that. As we head into the new year, I'm really worried. I'm very worried about the institutional crowd, derisking even more. And we'll tell you where, we'll tell you what. And as always, we're not going to tell you what to do. You get to decide. It's your money. We can only tell you

what we think and what we are seeing. It is your money after all. Pay no attention to pundits. Pay no attention to the big 10 of next year and the top 20 stocks are next year and where the market's going to be at the end of next year. Pay no attention. None of them have a clue where things are going to be at the end of next year. I can promise you that. There's too many variables. too much to deal with. All we need to do here is get the main trend right and stay on top of the game. And we will continue.

But nothing good happened today. Other areas went by-bye. Other areas worsened and we'll have them for you. And no, we are not stunned now. We think another leg down is odds on favor. and we'll take it one by one, step by step, day by day, and getting the main trend right. And if anything changes, we will let you know. Pay attention to price, not opinion.

That's all up next. On this, the one only, Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9.

That's 8-8-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises

to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary. called bomb it doesn't get better than this all right and welcome once again to investors edge let's do market wrap bought to buy investment dash models.com that's Jim Lorabak one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market was proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models com you ready for these numbers which by the way are bad but we have worse things to tell you Dow down 365 remember what we said it was going to be an eventuality that they'll get the Dow types.

S&P down 46, NASDAQ 139, NASDAQ 100143. Transports 231. New yearly lows, 630. New yearly highs really can't find any except some boring stuff. Advanced declines were not good either. But what have we been telling you? Let's start with the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ today closed.

at a new bare market closing low, not a bare market low. A new bear market closing low, which was 10308. We closed at 10213. The low intraday in the bare market was 1088. Nevertheless, not good. Apple. What did we tell you about? Apple. Apple is sitting on the ledge. What do we mean by the ledge? Well, first off, near New Yearly lows.

At the lows of October, November was 134.37. The second time it hit 134.38. That broke a few days ago. But the low of June, was 129.04. We closed today at 126.04, down $3.99. You are now in New Yearly Lows in Apple. You have broken what we consider to be some pretty decent support levels. You have, you have to go back now, 116.21.1.1.1.1.1.1. is the low of March 12th, 2001. 103.103.10 is the low of September of 2020. We make no predictions. We're just letting you know institutions.

The big money is cognizant that longer-term support in Apple was just taken out. What do we tell you about institutions when they are in recognition of significant support being taken out. Apple is 12% of the NASDAQ 100. It is 16 billion of market cap for every dollar. We had been warning you about Apple, A on the fundamental side, where earnings plus 25, plus 9, minus 8, plus 4, spotty and shoddy,

and not even close to where it used to be, combined with valuations, still in the trees compared to the last decade, combined with what will we tell in you in June and July and August, we thought money was being parked into Apple. Just like recently it was being parked into the Dow, which looks like that is now unwinding.

But we're not done. We just mentioned the NASDAQ. We just mention Apple. Next on the hit parade. And yeah, we believe it matters. Junk bonds. There are two ETFs with the symbol HYG and JNK. Both broke down today.

Very worrisome. Economic sensitive. But we're not done. We told you in the last couple of days, solar's were breaking down. under no uncertain terms. And we brought that up because a bunch of solars were holding up much better than the market. Solar edge down another 17 bucks today.

First solar, which is a lower price down four today breaking the 50-day moving average. N-phase, one of the stronger names, down another seven today. Down 33 bucks in the last two days. The solars go by-bye, but we're not done. Maybe it's not the biggest of deal, but it's still another area. The coal stocks, coal, which have been holding up pretty well, they top them today. Go look at C-E-I-X, cracked. Go look at B-T-U, cracked.

Go look at AR-C-H. not necessarily cracked but topped and AMR cracked so you got coal stocks but we're not done remember how we've been saying oils bad shape but a few still okay and how they've rallied up a little bit but nothing special

a bunch of them look like they've topped out here and if you go look at the three main ETS OIH wedging along the 50-day moving average. The X-O-P explorers, bare flag, a break below 130 would be bad. And the big oil, the X-L-E, bearish wedge below the 50-day, and looks ready for lower.

Another area. Topping out. And these are areas that have held up better than most. A gold, that's a commodity. They've been trying. Maybe rolling over today, not sure just yet, we'll let another card come out of the deck. But other commodities too got hit today. The steel stocks, they're bearish wedging. The XME, the metals and mining ETF breaking down here. And remember what we tell you. Fragile markets can't take days like yesterday, Dow down, up 37, NASDAQ down 140.

That's negative. That leads to today. Dow down 365. They're not going to hold the Dow up. Remember, under the weight of all the weakness and all the damage, they get most everything. They would get them today, but we're not done. what else up next? This is the one only investor's edge.

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Your wallet, terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Your X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And well, once again, to Investors Edge. By the way, a side note. So we were mentioning China yesterday how we're worried that China didn't plan the reopening.

They were forced to because of all the protests. and now the hospitals are full, the emergency rooms are full, people left and right are getting COVID. There were two planes loads of Chinese people that went to Italy. 50% of them had COVID as they got into Italy. So what the United States has decided to do on January 5th and we don't know why they wait, the U.S. is going to require travelers from China to submit a negative COVID test before they can come here. rightfully so but do you remember when

Trump was doing that what they said about Trump racist MF so isn't Biden now a racist MF ain't the media grand they really so much suck it's not even funny if we were to equate them

to a baseball hitter they'd be batting 110 they are that bad. So biased. Unbelievable. The reason why Fox News got so big because they recognized that one side wasn't getting their shot and had enough.

I still remember when Trump was doing the bans, he was a racist. Now Biden's doing it. Oh, it's the right thing. It's amazing to watch. And they do it in plain sight. And they wonder why their trust meters like an eight out of a hundred. No, really. It's the right thing to do.

If I was the president, that's what I would do. Can't have another COVID outbreak here. And you don't know what they have. So that's the story today. Also, we got a lot of input on the Southwest Airlines. I got people mad at me because I mentioned that Southwest corporate was letting down the Southwest employees also that work at the airports. Really? You get mad at me for bringing that up also, having sympathy for the people that work at the airports that have nothing to do with all these stupid decision making?

People who are mad. You should only talk about the people that are screwed the customers. Well, I did. You know, it's okay. It's okay to have sympathy for the many. I can't imagine what the people at Southwest are going through at the airports. They didn't make these decisions. corporate did

and boy did they screw up badly you know it was I think it was Buffett that said it takes a lifetime to earn a reputation but seconds to lose it Southwest and this isn't the first time they've had issues in the last year they better get their act together

there's a fine line in the travel business very much a fine line and nothing lasts forever if you don't take care of the one thing that matters most, your customer, your customer. And when your customers are traveling to see their families for the holiday, you've got to prep.

And if memory serves me right, we had days in advance of this weather cyclone bomb, whatever they call it. Now, I am sure there was no way. No way they can prepare 100% for something like that. Nobody's to know that. But you certainly get in front of it. And you should have been sending all kinds of mail and text to your customers just letting you know so they can prep and not go to the airports and lose their luggage for the next two to four weeks. And that's what we're hearing.

Hopefully it's a lot better than that. So we really hope the company gets their act together. we don't want to see any company get in trouble. And of course, Pete Buttigieg comes in, oh, we're going to look this one over. Where the hell was the Transportation Secretary before all this crap was going on? If I was the Transportation Secretary,

I would have been on the phone with Biden. I would have had a conference call with every CEO, C-O-O-O-O of every major airline. Are you prepared? Are you ready for this? what's your contingency plans have you contacted your customers yet oh you haven't why haven't you

that's the transportation secretary's job he's too busy out there telling you how cool he is and now he's on top of it another winner that the media love amazing amazing to watch it's just like the Stacey Abrams thing I never said that the election was fraud.

Oh, only a hundred times. And the media let her get away with it while ripping Trump for doing it. In plain sight. This is what we deal with. And yet, there's everything to do with you and your money. This is the media. They're reporting the news. They still haven't ripped the stuffings out of this FTX schmock.

They're treating him with kid gloves. you remember Madoff, right? They ripped him to shreds 24-7. And rightfully so. They should be doing the same to this, Yachts. Nope. Back on markets. When I say to you, on the New York, 867 stocks up 3,290 down,

on the NASDAQ 14009 up 2938 down, what does that mean? worsening, simple as that. When I say to you now 630 stocks at new yearly lows, worsening, worsening. When I tell you, as I look at a new yearly high list, and I can hardly find anything, on the NASDAQ, I'm looking at it right now, I've got nothing. I actually have nothing.

a couple of no sales biotechs, believe it or not. On the New York, closing lows, new yearly highs, I've got nothing. I have a few that were at new yearly highs during the day but finished down, so they're not really new yearly highs. No new yearly highs. That's meaningful. When I tell you more sectors breaking down, that's meaningful. When I tell you junk bonds are breaking down, that's meaningful. When I tell you Apple is broken into New Yearly Low Ground, that's really meaningful.

When I tell you NASDAQ is at a closing bare market low, that's huge meaningful. And don't argue. And I know what you deal with. We know what the pundits say. Oh, yeah. You know that guy on that channel two weeks ago we're telling you, the charts, I'm a swear he said it the charts say we're going to have a good end of year rally and I'm thinking to myself are his charts upside down or is he looking at the Mongolian market they used to be a guy on

gilligan's island wrong way Feldman used to fly the wrong way I'll leave it at that so I really have nothing good to say to you tomorrow I have no clue short term we can bounce we're over sold, bearishness is picked up, but I got news for you. Price and pattern overrule sentiment by miles and things are worsening in real time. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, in about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your friends. podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. What else are we worried about? Well, we have said to you, we don't trust the China stocks. I think they're topping out too now after this nascent rally. And that's because we think the people run in the joint there are morons. A, they repressed and depressed people. If you say a bad word about them, you end up missing or in jail.

And now they've completely screwed up COVID in that, when you're ending lock you know locking people down you're supposed to say hey we're going to end it in the next two weeks that we're going to prepare they did it overnight and people do not have there's no herd immunity there and now a ton of people getting COVID and reports are a ton of people are dying and as I reported to you this is a fact this is not this is two plane loads of Chinese tourists went to Italy and half of them had COVID. So the United States have made the decision on them that they cannot travel here unless a negative test. Good move. But more importantly, price and pattern and the Chinese stocks look like they're topping out here. Now, when we say topping out, we say to you, we don't know how bad it gets, how far it goes, we just know they're topping out. And due to the fact we're in a bare market, probably not going to be good news.

Probably not going to be good news. transports rolling over badly that's not good news bunch of retail that never really got going going by the wayside that's not good news and amazingly Costco stock is plummeted Costco if they're getting Costco we already know about Target that has been absolutely destroyed also. So we wish I had better news for you. But guess what we're getting closer to?

Guess what we know we're getting closer to? Guess what we know happens 100% of the time with bare markets throughout history. They eventually end. 100% of the time. And 100% of the time have led to new. bull markets. We just don't know how long the bear market lasts or how far it goes. But we're pretty damn good at seeing the signs of bear markets ending. And from the top to today, not once have we had even the urge to say the bear market low is in. We have called counter-trend rallies. We

think A-Lo and some of the counter-tren rallies were really good. Some were okay. Some lasted a day or two, which means they really weren't great counter-tren rallies. And now the big worry. The big worry. Let's harken back and review what we've said many a time. We worry that we're going into a bust. Why would I worry? Because we had a central bank-induced boom. We had central bank-induced bubbles. And bubbles always burst. And it is not a reach to say that one of those bubbles was the NASDAQ.

I think we're down 35, 36% now in this bear. Remember what we told you? We'd not be surprised for it to be a 50. We may just get there. The high on the NASDAQ was 16-212. We would not be surprised to get down to 8,000. I know you don't want to hear that, but we deal in reality here. And all we can tell you is they're just getting Apple.

You know, Apple's only down 30% while so many stocks are down 70 and 80. We're not saying Apple's gone down 70 or 80. We're letting you know in past bear markets. Apple's gone down 60. And of course, Apple being 12% of the NASDAQ 100. By the way, Apple is no longer the number one influencer in the NASDAQ, 100. Microsoft is. Microsoft is a wee bit above Apple as far as influence. A wee bit above. But the top five are still 40%. And of course, that have been no help because guess what those are?

Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google. I think Nvidia now is five Tesla is dropped down. By the way, Tesla was up today for a change. You would think it's going to go. go up eventually. Every stock in the Dow was down today except JP Morgan. I have yet to scan. We'll take a good look. But to be clear and to be concise, we told you if they get the Dow and they're getting it right now and we'll give you a little number on the Dow, you really do not want to break on the Dow. We're going to call it 32-580. We close at 32-875.

The 200-day moving average is 32-455. May I repeat? You don't want to break that area. Because that means the NASDAQ fully breaks institutional selling, and that will not be fun. So hope you are staying in gear. Another bull market eventually. And we hope to be on it.

You have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your pets, even if they bark. Make sure you hug your children. And we sincerely hope you're having a great holiday week as we head into the new year. Tomorrow will be on Varnie & Company at 10 a.m. Fox Business Network. And right back here, same time with radio.

Peace out all. for joining us. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.