Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Mixed Bag Of Mush.
Episode Date: March 8, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colpom, I'm your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It's March 8th.
It's 2000.
It's the day before I head to Mexico.
And I have to tell you, I cannot believe how many emails I've
gotten, I have received, not gotten, from listeners to the show telling me not to go.
I just had to bring it up first, and I bring it up because a couple of people that are going
to this wedding was kind of message to me that they're thinking are not going anymore, even though
what happened, I'm sure you've been reading about the tragedy, the murder in Mexico,
just south of the border, where I'm going to be is 510 miles away.
How do I know 510 miles?
Well, I map the sucker out.
Anyway, I thank you for really caring.
Just letting you know we're flying into Mexico City.
We're driving.
Here's the bad, you know, flying three hours, driving three hours.
And on the way back, only 80 minutes to a different airport.
the city we're going to be at is considered the safest city in all of Mexico.
So I think we're good.
I'm going.
Anyway, by the way, I really appreciate it.
I had one person email me that's with some department or whatever to email me to let me know
that everything's very isolated incidents.
They just get a lot of headlines.
I just appreciate you all.
We'll be okay.
Okay.
Otherwise, this is a show about everything that matters to you and the markets and the economy and your jobs, and your jobs, everything under the sun.
Unfortunately, our motto remains.
We have never been more optimistic on most of us.
We have never been more pessimistic on all of them.
Us being we, the people who wake up every morning just to do better for ourselves and our family, be more successful, healthier,
upward mobility, them, 32 trillion that, and a lot more where that came from.
And the lies that are coming out is about as disgusting, is the disgusting.
disgusting can be. And I hope one day that more and more people come over to my side,
and that is no side, that they're all shooting the middle finger at us, they're all laughing at us,
they're cursing each other out in front of the camera and just laughing at us behind the camera.
Just remember, it is the money they spend and divest.
up and collect that is their power. You have to remember that. And the longer they've been there,
the worse they are. Some worse than others, of course. But the longer they've been there,
the worse they are. And we got a little headline for you a little bit later in the show.
But first, or second, if you do not get this radio show in your city, I'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it at a Twitter feed.
You can follow us on Twitter by putting our name in Twitter
or press the button at garyk.com.
Of course, you can email me also.
You just have to be nice.
You just have to be nice.
As we have told you, we go back and forth with people
that completely disagree with our stance on capitalism
and the greatness of the people.
We go back and forth with people that think America sucks,
that we are racist like MSNBC says 24-7.
And I don't curse them out.
I try to convert them.
And I've converted a few.
But very tough.
Once you're a Marxist, it's very tough to get out of Marxism.
Because they just don't understand that all Marxism is is other people controlling you.
That's all it is.
If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on Twitter feed.
already said that. Just wanted to mention it again. And you should follow us on Twitter. We used to have
90,000 followers and overnight one night we had 30,000. And just so happens, it coincided with me
saying that Bernie Sanders' economic policy is communism. His economic policy is communistic.
And they shut me down for a day. And a week later, I lost 60,000 followers. That's your Twitter for you.
before Elon Musk.
Not to say he's doing a fabulous job.
Okay.
What do you do when the market's playing ping pong?
Well, you just try to isolate the strength.
Where do you find the strength?
You find it on the new yearly high list and you find it as you scan.
How do you find the outliers?
Well, a day like today, the Dow was down 58, but the NASDAQ was up 45.
Here's the problem with saying that.
Tomorrow the NASDAQ can be down 45 and the Dow was down.
up. That's what's been going on recently. The Dow was down 58. The semiconductor index was up
79. There was no news, but it's up 79. Strengthen some semiconductor names. It's just very
fluid now. The last two days we had Mr. Bubble talking. I watch some of it, and the problem with
Mr. Bubble is twofold. First and foremost, he doesn't know what the hell he's doing. That's all.
all they have is raise rates lower rates and print money and he doesn't know what he's doing
they really should not be in the markets they should not be in business they don't help anybody
they do nothing for nobody they've created bubbles enabled massive debt the bubbles have
popped they screwed savers the good news is savers i've been buying some i bought some 5.1
5.2% two year yield today i believe it was 5.2 so
around there. It was like zero a year and a half ago. So that's the good news. Well, he also
distorted all price and yield, which caused the major dislocation. We warned you about all this.
Yet he's up there like he knows what the hell he's doing. They used to predict things,
and they don't do that anymore. It's now data dependent because they used to predict things,
and they were always wrong.
In 07, Bernanke was saying every day,
well, there's nothing wrong with housing.
Prices never go down.
Subprime lending is terrific.
You know, I noticed today in a little bit of testimony, Powell,
had said something to the effect of,
yeah, and also we regulate banks.
They didn't do it in 2007.
So let me put in a nutshell, they suck at what they do.
They are of no value
and how they got to this point
and how they're unable to do what they do is beyond me, they have absolutely no value.
And really, my question would be, simply, if I got to ask them, can you please tell us your value
and what's the difference between you being a going concern and not?
Why couldn't the market take care of everything?
The free markets.
I'd like to hear him to answer that question.
I don't think he could.
So for the past couple of days, market dropped $500, $600, whatever.
The good news is in the last couple of days, and this is what we like, the NASDAQ's outperforming.
Now, whether or not that lasts or not, I don't know.
But the NASDAQ, the last couple of days, is completely outperforming the down.
And why do we bring that up?
Because, and very simple, it's more of the risk-on area.
it's more of the risk on area what do we mean by risk on it tells us the temperature of the big money
and the big institutional crowd and where they're putting their money and for the last couple of
days at least yay the better bid is in semis and tech and things like that even though it's down
it's all on a relative basis versus everything else now we're also going to do again on today's
show because there's really a separation of powers right now. We're going to tell you what to avoid.
Why? There's a lot of avoids. Why? That's just the market. And I know what you see every day and when I go on TV and others, I'm a little bit different. I try to separate everything.
They'll talk about, oh, the market, bullish, bearish, bearish, bullish. It's not the way it is. We'll tell you what's bullish and what's bearish.
Up next, this is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells work.
You're listening to
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And what once gets to Investors Edge.
And by the way, if any of you can give me a real good reason, but it has to be solid.
What our central bank does to help.
Americans, but you've got to back it up, dinner on me.
And I'm always into good dinners.
Seriously, I mean that.
Because I know nobody can come up with that answer.
You're going to have to prove that the market itself needs them.
Just remember what they did.
Just remember the destruction we have had.
Destruction. It's not talked about anymore. But you know what I did? I kept one screen of the destruction. You wouldn't believe. Well, I think you do know the destruction. By the way, do you know Bed Bath and Beyond? You know I yelled at you. Do you know bed, bath and beyond? They had another short squeeze. Remember the last one in August to 30 bucks from four? What do we tell you? It's $1.30. You know why the short squeeze has happened?
print nine trillion bucks of money oh gary come on how does that happen what did the fed do easy money spawns
greed easy money spawns greedy activity easy money creates it's just history bubbles and due to the fact
and we use these words the easiest money we've ever had in history times of billions and zillions
and quittrillions that god only remember what i used to say to you god only know what i only know
what distortions there are, but we're going to find out, and the misery is going to be beyond
the beyond. I was looking at the marijuana stocks earlier today. Remember, they were touted.
You had own weed. Symbol A-C-B is 81 cents. Not kidding. 81 cents. You ready? Down from 140.
CR-O-N, $1.96, down from 20.
R-Y was $300. $2.60. Do you want me to do some of the SPACs that are now at 70 cents down from
$10? I can do that too. Or the SPACs that went to zero. Or how about recently they started
hitting the AI stocks. S-O-U-M was just $5.2.60 last couple of weeks. 50% drop almost.
What does that come from?
The remnants of froth and speculation.
And wherever they show up, we will tell you about them and let you know what we say every time.
Please just don't be the last one in.
If we do nothing else ever good on this show, just what we did during the blow up, during the bubbles,
that's enough, worth its weight in big time gold.
Today's market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com.
That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.
Go check it out.
Investment-mottles.com.
The Dow was down 58.
The NASDAQ was up 45.
But for the record, the Dow at 330 was down almost 200.
And pretty much in 15 minutes, we only...
almost got back to even. We're down 200 to only down 20 in 15 minutes towards the end of the day.
The NASDAQ at 330 was 518, 58, was down 13 points, finished up 45. So nice little jam
into the close and that's fine and dandy. The story of the day, the semiconductors, just strong all day.
I was looking for news, didn't see anything, just strong all day. And I think that's
that could be good news as we move forward. Why? Because semiconductors matter. But as I do my scans,
a lot of weakness in a lot of places, a lot of bad action, a lot of bad chart patterns.
But money flows going into the semis, some miscellaneous tech. I also like the fact
that housing stocks had a little better bid today and I say that because that could presage
lower rates coming yields were flat today didn't budge they were down early they were up a little
bit then they came back to the flat line today which is abnormal recently because usually
have big moves every day but when I do my scans tonight oh I'll be scanning the
semiconductors see what I can find I know what strength and I know what's not
right now some of the AI
Nvidia one of the real
strong names on the crappiest
of earnings
meaning
they better have something going on with AI
because if they report another
crappy earnings this thing's going to crash
I don't care what anybody tells you
because when all is said and done it will be about the earnings
not about the froth and the speculation
ooh it's AI
artificial intelligence by the way
and as I've said to you on AI, a little segue,
I will be spending 100 hours studying it
because I'm being told by some very smart people,
it will matter.
I'm trying to figure out in what way,
and I'm trying to figure out the monetization of it.
And I'm trying to also figure out
how is it going to be bad for Google?
Because it kind of sort of.
am I correct does what Google does and Google started their own called Bard and didn't go so well
and it looks like Microsoft may have the front running with the Bing which wasn't doing so well
so just letting you know it'll take some time but I'm going to learn the hell out of it
because that's what we do here once you want to know you make sure you know
Hopefully I've conveyed that well to you throughout the years.
Up next, let's go into what's not.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
By the way,
I started doing something the last
few days, I've been looking at corporate bonds and man, there's some darn good value in there
and on short term. You know, they have things called junk bonds that are not really, they call them
junk because they're less on the credit spectrum, but nobody can tell me that Ford is junk.
That's the way I look at it. I mean, you can go out three years on Ford bonds that I saw some
at 6% today.
So I'm doing a little take on that because I used to have a pretty sizable income business
that just couldn't do it anymore because J. Powell screwed me and every income investor out
there and anybody who manages income.
But now, I don't know if it's called value, but hell, go out three years.
Well, right now two-year notes is getting 5% plus.
And that's government, no risk.
Of course, corporation, you have corporate risk, but where's Ford going?
In 2008, they never needed any money.
So they're going to be around and they're going to pay the...
By the way, we can never guarantee anything here, even a bond.
So we'll just let you know up front.
We're not guaranteeing anything.
But if you think Ford's going to be around in three years,
my guess it's going to be...
Damn, those bonds for income investors.
And I'll be doing a deep dive in that tonight and over the weekend
because competition for money, baby.
Not everybody wants to be in the stock market.
I get that.
Understandable.
Especially as you move up in age.
So just letting you know, there's alternatives, kids.
It's not exciting.
We understand that.
But we're just giving you all aspects.
And here's the other thing I want to tell each and every one of you.
Listen carefully.
A lot of these bond funds that are paying 2%.
If you have those, you maybe want to look to trade them in for 5%.
Only one thing.
If the bond market gets better, the bond funds will go up in price.
If the bond market gets worse, they'll go down in price.
With a government bond,
You're just going to get your money out plus your yield.
And by the way, the two years I bought today were at a big discount.
So I paid 93.
I'm going to get out of a hundo in two years.
That'll be part of the return, which is fine.
You're pay taxes no matter what, right?
Next, just let you know.
in differing levels of bearishness, downtrends.
First off, junk bonds.
Yields going up, junk bonds going down.
What do we measure it with?
Go look at H-Y-G and J-N-K.
Bearish charts.
Any way you cut it.
H-Y-G and J-N-K.
Now, why is that something we watch?
Well, because that could tell you a lot about the economy going forward.
That's why.
So we watch them.
Gold and silver.
Just terrible action.
Gold bugs have to be tearing their hair out of their heads.
Because they've been always been taught.
Everybody's always been taught when inflation comes gold skyrockets.
And it hasn't.
It hasn't.
Now, maybe one day it will.
We're just letting you know it hasn't.
And silver's really broken down now.
China.
The ADRs, which we told you, we, I think our exact words were right at the end of January.
We came on, we told our peeps, I think it's stalled in here, and we'd be careful.
It's had a good move.
Let's see what happens.
That was the top.
and nothing good since.
And most China names now are trading below the line.
You know what that is?
The 50-day moving average.
That's not good news.
So we're just letting you know the China names.
Drug stores.
I don't know if you've seen the action in CVS and Walgreens.
South End of a northbound jackass.
A bunch of staples.
You know, the food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products.
Not all. There's a few that are strong, but man, oh man.
Drugs, drug stocks, bare markets.
And there's differing bare markets.
A bare market for a high beta stock is much worse than a bear market for a drug stock, but I got news for you.
The drug stocks are in a bare market except for Merck.
Managed care, HMOs, we've been talking about that for months.
Brutal bare market.
For these stocks that have been stalwarts throughout the years.
retail there's just a lot of retail stocks still bearish
Target
Costco
Lulu lemon
I can go through a whole list of them
few that are strong
Home Depot and Lowe's weak is all hack
Waste management
you know the ones who pick up your garbage
bare markets
a bunch of financials and they worsen really
bad especially the regional banks
that look terrible and has me with my eyes wide open.
Why would that be?
Because this is financials.
They have been one of the linchpins.
Staying with retail, the dollar stores.
Really?
The discount dollar stores?
Yes.
They're in a bare market.
Go look at Dollar General.
A bunch of insurance stocks.
Bear.
A bunch of big bio.
tech. Bear. By the way, Regeneron was down 28 bucks today. And if you want to know what we mean,
go look at Amgen, AMGN. And by the way, UTHR was down 14 bucks today to big drop.
Insurance stocks. Go look at AIG. Go look at the duck, Affleck, go look at metropolitan life.
That's bearish. And we mentioned the regionals, but I got news for you. Some of the biggies now.
J.P. Morgan's broken the 50-day. Bank America looks terrible.
Some of the lenders, terrible.
Rails, well, Norfolk Southern has their own problems.
Terrible.
All the Dow stocks that we have mentioned to you.
Barish.
Not all.
But a bunch of them.
And some ridiculously bearish, which means they're way down.
And then a lot of those bombed out,
destroyed big leaders of 20 and 21 software types where some have come off the lows and are doing better
but still just coming off the lows a lot of them are back near the lows and just look terrible
isn't it interesting how I'm able to mention these areas by the way we're not giving opinions
here. We're telling you facts of what the price has done. And assuming we know what an up trend
or a downtrend is and a bad uptrend, a good up trend or a bad downtrend, assuming you'll have
to take my word for it. And of course, the bubbles all been destroyed. Up next, we'll wind that up,
Put a bow on it. Do the news.
This is the one only investors' edge.
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What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreker makes the whole process.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
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Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
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Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
You're listening to
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the Bester's Edge
with Gary Culpa.
So the bow tie
on everything I'm just telling you
was just avoid these areas.
Forget those words.
Go look for yourself.
And you'll see what we're seeing.
And I mentioned oils, didn't I?
Right.
Okay, I did.
And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see today that there were 54 new yearly highs on the NASDAQ today.
54 new yearly highs.
And then when I look at the 54 new yearly highs on the NASDAQ, you know what I find?
4 or 5.
Because a bunch of them are non-operating companies or these SPACs that just came out at 10 and trade at 10.01.
and they show new yearly highs.
So four new yearly highs on the NASDAQ today.
New yearly lows expanded to 174 on a good NASDAQ day.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that's underlying underneath the surface.
You got some weakness going on and you got some areas.
Now, as we always say to you, if anything changes, we'll let you know.
One of those areas that were bearish was coal.
but they resolve themselves.
They haven't broken out.
They're not bullish, but they stop the ugly and are just sitting in a range bound.
So no longer are they on our yuck list.
So if anything changes, again, we'll let you know.
In the news, Joe Biden did an op-ed in the New York Times.
My plan to extend Medicare for another generation.
First, let's recognize.
that Joe Biden's been in Washington, D.C. for 50 years.
He was not there for the four years that between Obama, during the Trump years.
He was out of politics.
That's when he was influenced peddling with his son, of course.
Yeah, he's the big guy.
Anyway, he talks about the new budget he's going to release and what it's going to do
and who's going to pay for it.
You catch in my drift?
These miscreants in D.C.
have set us up for the kill.
Growing the government into size unimaginable.
Growing the deficit to size unimaginable.
And there's only two things that you can do.
Stop it, which never happens.
Or you're going to tax the hell out of somebody.
And as usual, they pick a number.
Oh, if you make $400,000, you suck and we're coming after you.
Oh, and you're a tax cheat also.
So you may want to read this.
I was cracking up laughing, reading his whole op-ed,
who was written by somebody else, but it's him.
Let's ask the wealthiest to pay just a little bit more of their fair share,
even though the top 1% pay 42% of all taxes.
But that's not the fair share.
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
You know, I can't stand Trump.
I'm pretty sure Biden has eclipsed him,
because he lies just as much,
and at least Trump lowered taxes
because it is our money.
In the news, I thought this was interesting.
Do you know New York City?
Things a little bit better as far as crime?
I don't know if you know this.
It's true.
Especially on the subways.
Do you know why?
They put more police there!
Just realize what criminals are.
They're wimps.
They're cowards.
They take advantage of people
that are not expecting crime.
So when they're more police there,
they go back into their wimptom,
and they don't commit as many crimes,
or don't commit crimes at all.
So the numbers have gone down markedly.
And it's good to see.
Subway crime pledged 21.5%
after the mayor ordered a dramatic rise.
And police!
Thus, these idiot cities run by idiots who want to get rid of police, oh, they're the ones that are hiring private security for themselves.
It is amazing to watch the illogic.
And here's, remember what we've said to about reporting the news after the news?
Here's an article.
Time to get used to higher rates.
What's the line?
No blank Sherlock.
They're telling us now it's time to get used to higher rates.
Where the hell have they been for the last year?
What do we call these people?
Ambulance Chasers?
Oh, Monday morning quarterbacks better.
Anyway, of course, the higher rates go both ways.
Savers, you're making cake.
Borrowers, much tougher.
Ability to buy a house, much tougher.
Simple as that.
Ten-year yield is a 3.976.
I'm expecting the Fed to go to 5% at the EFERC.
end of March. We'll see. Remember what we've told you. If they show that they're really determined,
that may lower the real long-term rates, believe it or not. And I don't think anybody understands that.
That may be good news unless they do go too far. Remember, what they do does affect the prime rate.
It affects credit cards and it affects the whole borrowing spectrum. But for me, watch the 10-year yield.
That can come down.
Mui Importante.
And that's the day.
Hey, I want a big shout out to my buddy Bovvie down in Boca Raton, Florida.
Bovieve he knows who he is.
We leave names out to protect the innocent.
Tomorrow, you got Adam.
I'll be traveling to Mexico.
Wish me well.
We'll be doing radio from Mexico on Friday.
So you all have a great evening drive carefully.
My Mexican office.
And when you get home, do like I do.
It's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
So you get Adam tomorrow and he's terrific.
We'll be back on Friday.
Stay well.
I'll be well.
I'll be on with Varney tomorrow at 9 a.m.
9.30 a.m.
Fox Business Network.
Check it out.
Good night, everybody.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary.
Go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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