Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Mixed Bag of Slop

Episode Date: September 19, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Cha...nnel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?
Starting point is 00:00:25 Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the Biz Talk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
Starting point is 00:00:46 A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is the 19th. It is September. It is Tuesday, 2003. And regardless where the market closes, and by the way, it is 3.50 p.m. Eastern Time. we got quite the few things we do want to say that are of import when it comes to the market.
Starting point is 00:01:12 As you know, what we try to do here also, kind of sort of lessons. Lessons. And every now and then there are things that stick out that we think are lessons for you. And when we, how do I put this best? as we went through 2021 and everything started topping out
Starting point is 00:01:37 leading to November when they really started topping out then they got the big cap names and then we went through the process we get to the point today and what I just want to do
Starting point is 00:01:53 at the outset Amazon Google they call call it alphabet now. Facebook, they call it meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla, and the almighty Apple. Those names, seven names, remain what I continue to think is stunning. And what I mean by that is, an unbelievable influence, unbelievable influence on the major indices. And it's something that definitively needs to be watched going forward.
Starting point is 00:02:54 I am right now NASDAQ 100 makeup. And I'm doing this for a purpose, by the way. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Vida, Facebook, Tesla, and Google, seven names. Google has two classes of stock. Broadcom, you can add number eight. Those eight names, I'm not making up when I tell you, 46% of the NASDAQ 100. Apple and Microsoft is over 20. Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, 26.
Starting point is 00:03:45 And I'm bringing this up specifically today because I've been watching all day how they really do maneuver things as we were really weak and have come back decently. Dow's still down 90, but NASDAX's only 26 and, and 30 NASDAQ 100 when they were much worse.
Starting point is 00:04:09 And what happened? Well, by the way, Adobe is another name, but that's number 12. They were all down decently and they all bounced. To a certain extent, some are still down. And then I have them on one area of my screen and I watch them and then I see how the following. to the left of me is all the much lower cap technology software names that have been beaten up underneath on my front screen of the big names or some lesser big names and you can just see movement and all I'm thinking to myself today is they better keep these going and then I
Starting point is 00:05:03 looked at where they all are and just so you know Apple's below the 50-day moving average. Microsoft is. Nvidia is. Netflix's not as bad, but that one just got hit. Oracle and Salesforce.com are not in the NASDAQ. I didn't even realize that earlier. Adobe's holding the 50-day today.
Starting point is 00:05:26 Google's still acting okay. Amazon was getting hit hard today, but held the 50-day. And I am just noticing. I take that back. I already knew. But it was just more of a wake-up today because I'm just noticing how so many stocks have been absolutely beaten up and beaten up badly in recent weeks. And some of these big caps have been beaten up also, but so much less so. and I was just thinking to myself, they better keep these things from getting in what I call big trouble. Now, Tesla is a 266, had a high of 400 back in, what was it, 21?
Starting point is 00:06:20 So it's still way down, but it's way off the lows. Yeah, Tesla was 400 in October of 21. Apple is off the highs of 197, but it's 179. Whoopey, 9%. But what if Apple was ever a 25 or a 30% or not saying it's going to be? We're just letting you know we're going to watch these suckers like a hawk. Because in the past, in case you did not know, is I go to my monthly chart on Apple and in the 2007 bare market, it went, well, it split a bunch of times.
Starting point is 00:07:05 It went from seven to quarter down to 302. So let's say it's $72 to $30. That's a big drop. And no way we're saying the same is going to happen. We're just letting you know how just today specifically I was able to just spend some time looking at Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Adobe, Netflix, and even though they're on the New York salesforce.com and Oracle, because they are big names, and have influence.
Starting point is 00:07:44 Now, there's a reason why they hold up better than others, and it's normal. A, they're mega caps. B, their earnings have not what I call gone all over the place, though one could argue on history, Apple's trading at 50% higher than it should. What? Well, Apple's norm over the last decade or so was to trade it 15 times earnings. It's trading at 30 now. No, not kidding.
Starting point is 00:08:18 And at 30 times earnings, it's probably the weakest growth rate it has had forever. Well, post iPad and iPhones. Netflix, they have no growth. No growth. Sales, 6243. Earnings minus 3, then a big drop of 91 minus 18 plus 3. Those aren't growth names. Others are better. You got a recovery in earnings in Facebook. I'm still goofed out on Nvidia, how weak it's been with those strong numbers, but there are some thoughts on why. We're just going to watch these stocks like a hawk. If they ever decide to get them, there's the indices. The good news is Adobe, which is about 2% of the NASDAQ 100, holding the 50 day after real bad reaction to earnings. So we're just starting to show this way because it just came to mind today. And I say it because I was able today to cross out about 30 or 40 names breaking down today
Starting point is 00:09:31 while these mega names held up the indices. while they were still down today, they were way off the lows. What's the other part of the equation? These stocks are so over-owned by institutions. It's not even funny. Why, they've been dependable. I get it. They've been very dependable.
Starting point is 00:10:03 Microsoft is an all-time high. Well, it's off now, but it was just at all-time highs. I get it. Now, I already watch them like a hawk. I mean, I watch them big time like a hawk. I mean, big time like a hawk. I think after today I'm going to even watch them more. I already realize and have told you 100 times how important they are to the markets.
Starting point is 00:10:34 I have even more respect for them today. We'll keep talking about them if need be. But it's another one of those days where it could have been worse. could have been better, but those mega-cap names really helped out today. Up next, market wrap, much more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized service.
Starting point is 00:11:49 including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22, 5559. That's 888-422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less
Starting point is 00:12:43 than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
Starting point is 00:13:05 The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for,
Starting point is 00:13:41 well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.
Starting point is 00:14:09 It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Well, so we all think we're very good at what we do, right? We all have an ego, right? Some much bigger than others, right? But we, on this show, we will say to you, oh, we were wrong on that. But, you know, our motto on wrong, when wrong, be wrong, fast, and be wrong, small. I'm always amazed at people that refuse to say they're wrong when it comes to the markets.
Starting point is 00:14:54 We'll leave names out of it. wrong is fine wrong big is not fine well one of the things the latest thing we have been telling you because we've been getting the hype they started coming out with initial public offerings again
Starting point is 00:15:12 and we just said to you and we were on TV last week I was on with Neil Cavuto last week the day arm came public that was Thursday and I just simply said Neil here is the problem
Starting point is 00:15:29 With IPOs, you need to do your homework. You don't want to pay $1.50 or $2 for a $1 bill. And the job of these investment banks are to bring these things out at the highest price possible. That's their job. So it's your job not to be a dope. And one of the biggest, widest, most ridiculous thing we have ever seen was the Rivian from a couple of years back. And I was on TV with Charles Payne. I told you that day, beware, and I even stated, I don't usually do this.
Starting point is 00:16:03 The stock was 170, and I said, that's worth about 20. And the worth about 20 was based on just normal val. Valuation. And at the time, Rivian had no sales. And we knew they were going to eventually have sales, but at the time, had no sales, but at a market valuation, almost equal to GM and Ford put together. So it was a lock and the stock crashed. Well, they're doing it again.
Starting point is 00:16:41 So last Thursday, they bring out arm holdings. In case you don't know, it's United Kingdom-based semiconductor company, and they used to be public. The symbol used to be A-R-M-H-Y, I believe, many years ago. So it comes public and it was a $51 deal. And I'm like, hmm, what would I pay for this? Hmm. And I just said 30.
Starting point is 00:17:10 So I already thought they were coming out at ridiculous valuation. So they open it up. They close it that day at 63. And I just said to Neil, you know, just be careful about paying $1.50. $2 for a $1 bill. The next day hits a higher as $69. It's $55. And their sales are down.
Starting point is 00:17:38 Their earnings are down. And it's trading at 100 times earnings. 23, 37, 65. Well, now it's trading at about 90 times earnings. It's trading at like 20-something times sales. It should be trading it like eight times sales. Anyway, we'll see how it. it plays out they brought it out at ridiculous price because that leads me to today they brought out
Starting point is 00:18:06 cart symbol cart uh instacart instacart instacart instacart it's an ipo you gotta own it do do do do do and what did they do uh it uh it was a thirty one a $30 IPO. And I've looked at the numbers. And by the way, they're not doing as well on the delivery anymore. They make it in advertising, but that's besides the point. And today, Instacart, they had it at $42.95 early in the morning. Excuse me, they opened it up at $12.30.
Starting point is 00:18:55 They had it up at $43 on a $30 deal. And I'm just thinking to myself, it's worth about 15. Where do you get 15 from? Just valuing. You know, just the value. You add up certain things, price earnings, multiple, sales, what's the growth rate? Do you believe they had this thing at $42.95 today? and they closed it at $33.40.
Starting point is 00:19:35 Anybody who bought is down and some down big if you bought the open. And what it comes down to is, I almost can't blame the investment banks because their job is to bring it out at the best price. But the problem is, if you're screwing the investing public, now you've got two. You got two big names coming out. You want to do more initial public offerings.
Starting point is 00:20:03 You bring them out at stupid prices. People are now losing their ass on both of them. In short order, guess what happens with other IPs? People are going to be afraid. And then guess what happens? You can't bring them out. Guess what happens? You don't get the fees.
Starting point is 00:20:19 Guess what happens? Go into your boardroom and say, boy, are we dofuses? So we're just let you know, I have no idea where arm holdings goes from here. I have no idea where Instacart goes from here. I'm just letting you know they brought it out at stupid prices. Just letting you know. And we'll get to watch them. They're two very, you know, armholding is not that big of a company,
Starting point is 00:20:44 about 2.5 billion in revenues. They're small compared to some others. We'll watch them. We'll let you know. It's just stunning. They continue to bring out dollar bills and have you pay $1.50 to $2. They price them for perfection. You would think the symbol on both these stocks would GOD with a capital G.
Starting point is 00:21:09 Invest in God. One's a semiconductor company, a very cyclical industry. And semiconductors, a ton of terrible earnings right now, hyped up on AI and Instacart. They deliver stuff. Yay. Because nobody else delivers. Right? There's no Uber Eats, right? Instacart, I'm looking up.
Starting point is 00:21:44 Yeah, it's a personal shop or grocery delivery near me. I got nothing against them. Good on them. Revenue, 2.5 billion in 22. Terrific. They brought it out at ridiculous price and they opened up at ridiculous price. and people who bought in the hype paying the price and those same people may not buy the next one. So just let you know. Next. Well, they did it again.
Starting point is 00:22:14 I don't know how it happens, but symbol CCG, a SPAC with nothing. Cheche group went from 10 to 200 yesterday, closed at 75 and was down 42 bucks today to $32, and it hardly trades. Again, I don't know what the hell's going on here, but I don't know if it's good news. Just letting you know, be careful.
Starting point is 00:22:39 Up next, market wrap. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.
Starting point is 00:23:21 What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
Starting point is 00:23:39 and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Starting point is 00:24:08 Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well. I'll publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Starting point is 00:24:34 Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. see capital one.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking.
Starting point is 00:24:54 Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Starting point is 00:25:23 All right, market wrap. Brought to you by Investment dash models.com. That's Jim. We're back one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check. out investment dash models.com. Dowdown 106. It was down 300. In fact, I'm about to tell you
Starting point is 00:25:43 exactly how much it was down. At one point today, Dow 34-311. 311, it was down about 32. 32. 316. It's a good comeback. The NASDAQ finished down 32. The NASDAQ at one point today was a 13578, was down 132. With a few minutes to go, the NASDAQ was only down 8, and then fell back a little bit. And what was the story? It's pretty simple, the story. Because advanced declines on the NASDAQ again, 16 up, 24 down.
Starting point is 00:26:24 It's like every day. And you're ready for this? New highs on the NASDAQ? Well, new lows, 264. New highs on the NASDAQ? I'm about to tell you, Because it should take me about eight seconds. On the NASDAQ, new highs, you ready?
Starting point is 00:26:45 Well, charter communications showing a new yearly high, but it was down six today, so it finished down. You hear the silence? I'm not going to mention a $2 stock that doesn't trade. I have no new yearly highs on the NASDAQ. Let's see, eerie indemnity, an insurance broker. By the way, the insurance stocks are actually acting well now. They actually have come on, one of the few groups. So really, no new yearly highs on the NASDAQ, yet it came back at the end of the day.
Starting point is 00:27:30 By the way, I got to mention this. Peloton is down to $4.80. JetBlue is down to $4.65. Those are new yearly lows, by the way. Unbelievable, huh? Dollar tree new yearly lows. You know what the problem with the dollar stores are. I got to charge a buck and a quarter.
Starting point is 00:27:50 What was the story today? Adobe up 9, Apple up 1. Apple being up 1 by the way is $15.5 billion. Unbelievable. Netflix was up a little bit today. Tesla was up a little bit. NVIDA was down 4.5 and NVIDIA is still weak. Microsoft only down 40 cents was down 3. Amazon down 240 was down of almost 5.
Starting point is 00:28:21 That was the story. Those names brought things back. but then underneath the surface. I'm not going to go through names. There's a lot of names underneath the surface that broke support today. A lot of weakness underneath. And that's why at the outset of this show, we had a mention to you, boy, oh boy, we're going to be watching these bad boys.
Starting point is 00:28:44 If the market ever got to the point where they say, okay, great companies, but valuations are 20% too high and actually acted on it. and I do not think we are there. Next, I have to mention, Elon Musk is now floating that he's going to make you pay to be on Twitter, which is now X. And I asked myself today, would I pay a few bucks every month just to have a Twitter account?
Starting point is 00:29:18 I actually think I would. I would at least try. Just so you know what I love about Twitter, I can follow certain people that. I follow that put out very good information and it gets pushed to me. It comes to me. Some very good newsletters, some very smart people. That's important to me. So that's in the news, also in the news. You know this moron at FTX, Bankman Freed? Well, they're going after the parents. They're professors and they're crooked.
Starting point is 00:30:02 They got a $10 million home, $15 million in cash. Amazing to watch this stuff. But you know what else I have to bring up? So President Biden was in front of the UN today. And I got to tell you just pure nausea. First off, he was kind of sort of going after countries that have too much debt, yet he's running $2 trillion this year. the championship belt of deficits in one year, two trillion, which is more than we spent in the year
Starting point is 00:30:38 2000. And then he started in on climate. And just so you know, there is no bigger crisis in this country than our debt deficits and our children's education. There's no bigger crisis than those two. things. Climate is way down because we can't change the weather and we're already doing plenty about pollution and things. We're going green. We don't need some dufus who's been in Washington, D.C. for 50 years to tell us. And he just wouldn't shut up about climate to the UN today.
Starting point is 00:31:26 He just wouldn't shut up. Every other word was climate and climate and climate. And all I'm thinking to myself, they might as well post a tattoo on his forehead of a dollar sign because that's all what it comes down to. And last but not least, a little bit of the news, the impeachment inquiry for Biden will be September 28th. But I don't need an impeachment inquiry. What all I would need, give me the bank records of Hunter Biden, the Biden family, and Joe Biden, and there you have it. That's all I want. Everything else is noise. Nothing else matters. Just give me their bank records and where money flew in and out. Where did it flow from? And who? And what did they do for it? That's all. And when we find out they got 20, 30 million bucks and did nothing? We know. They're the
Starting point is 00:32:26 second best influence peddling machine. And of course, the number one greatest of all time. And they're just in their own category of the Clintons. I mean, they're just in another ozone layer. But I must say Jared Kushner is right there. Hey, I'm going to give the Saudis a lot of ammunition. Hey, well, you give me $2 billion for a fund once I'm out of the White House. So he's right up there also. You know what, Jared Kushner may be number one.
Starting point is 00:32:57 Two billion. So you can tell Sleez has no bias when it comes to what. whether it's an R or a D. That's what we're dealing with here. Yeah, give me $2 billion. Anyway, so that was Joe Biden today. That's the next thing going on. Tomorrow's going to be the Fed.
Starting point is 00:33:22 And I couldn't care less what they say or what they do. My eyes are on the 10-year yield. My eyes are on the price of oil. if they go higher, fundamentally, throw everything else aside. Because who knows what the stock market can do? Fundamentally for you and I, if oil prices keep going up, if the 10-year yield keeps going up, the cost of capital keeps going up,
Starting point is 00:33:57 and the cost of energy keeps going up. And we started the show yesterday. I think I named, what, 75 products, that are made with petroleum, all those prices go up. So government can come out with all the statistics they want on inflation. They can kiss my statistic. The bottom line, if oil prices go up and the 10-year goes up, fundamentally, that goes through the pipes from you and I to the biggest of corporations out there.
Starting point is 00:34:34 and that has to be watched. And I say that because the 10-year yield, at the close today, going into the Fed tomorrow, closed at a 15-year high, 4.365, just above the 15-year high of about three weeks ago at 4.362, and above the high of 2008, which was 4.302. Three. Got to get my little thing on there. Three, two, four. Oh, it's going to get fun. Up next, we'll wind it up.
Starting point is 00:35:18 This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.
Starting point is 00:36:15 What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,
Starting point is 00:36:34 Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreaker. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
Starting point is 00:37:10 This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
Starting point is 00:37:43 You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. I just want you to know that I started working out again.
Starting point is 00:38:22 It's now been about four months since back. spasms I have not had one about 40 days now and I just been taking my time I'm starting with some you know light dumbbell buys and tries today I did some sitting bench press on the machine that I have and been doing very light weights and I'm gonna work myself into it because as you know I am into weightlifting and and strength. As you get older, you better do it. I'm just letting you know. You got to keep your strength as much as possible. And let's hope my back stays in good shape. So far, so good. I go to the stretcher every Wednesday and she stretches the hell out of me. And what's amazing is,
Starting point is 00:39:17 it's funny. I go see this physical therapist. I call her the stretcher. She stretches you. It turns out she lives about five houses away from me in the neighborhood. Didn't even know that. Boy, she's very good, too. She has game. And she listens. That's the good news. She listens.
Starting point is 00:39:38 My big thing now is the hamstrings. My hamstrings are like oak trees. So I can stretch them for an hour, and they still don't get loose. But you do the best you can. Anyway, just let you know, I'm lifting again. and felt good. But man, oh man, as you get older, recovery is tougher and tougher. And I think I've done this before, but I thank each and everyone.
Starting point is 00:40:10 We ended up with like 3,500 emails on it. You know, normally when we hit a hot button here, we'll get like 500. We got like 3,500 emails from all of you, and you all got back problems. little did I know and just so you know all I did I just stretched it out and stretched it out swam it out swam it out
Starting point is 00:40:34 really didn't do it let's see that I did some flexerals during some nights did some Advil but I'm not a pill guy I'm the opposite of a drug addict let's put it that way and I don't drink either you know I was in Dubai
Starting point is 00:40:56 where I'm with my family and you know they're having the cocktails and stuff. I think I had one drink when I was in 10 days in Dubai. It's pretty good too. It was like an espresso martini. Is that what the they have martinis espresso martinis? Pretty damn good. All right. Enough of me. When I do my scans, I have a legal pad in front of me. The first page is of good. The second page is of bad. The third page. The third page. will be what I call the good and bad how do I put this the good and bad but things that don't trade as much then what I'll do is you know it's been strong recently the oils so I'll put that completely on a separate page and what I'm able to see
Starting point is 00:41:55 on the oils over the last couple of days and I'm kind of warning you the stocks are seem to be stalling. I don't know if that's a rub on oil prices, which were again up again today, but they're very elevated right now. They've gone straight up. We call it overbought and stretched and extend it to the upside. We'll see what happens. We just got to get back to letting you know again. Nothing good happens if we keep going up. And I'm surprised at how persistent it has been. And then there's the 10-year yield. And I get shot to me, sent to me, all kinds of stats on mortgages. And like if you bought a half million dollar home and put down 20% when the mortgage was at 3% and now it's 7.5, what the difference is, it's gargantuan difference.
Starting point is 00:42:59 I've been also speaking to realtors, leave no doubt. Nobody wants to sell 3% mortgage homes and then trade for a 7.5. It's a gargantuan difference as you move up the scale. Also, normally, jumbo mortgage yields are usually lower than regular mortgage yields. And right now, they're actually higher. So there's a lot of distortion out there. And of course, as we have said to you, this is all because of Jay Powell. Again, God bless him.
Starting point is 00:43:39 He gets no blame. But he caused it all with his moronic move down to 0%. And now, who wants to trade it? And anybody who had a high mortgage refinanced down to a low mortgage. So anybody's putting a house up for sale right now, either has it for cash or needs to move. And I've been doing a lot of asking and a lot of speaking to the real estate business. It's exactly what's going on, which has me questioning the next part. If everything Powell has done ended up blowing things up.
Starting point is 00:44:21 What? Well, the meme stocks, he caused them. the bubbles he caused them the ridiculous bond market he caused it the inflation he caused it and all of that is blown up what happens with housing I'm trying to figure out what bad can happen now in housing prices cannot really come down unless more inventory is out there and the inventory doesn't move at price so somebody lowers and lowers now let me tell you this people are still in fantasy land. Where I am in Central Florida,
Starting point is 00:45:04 I'll see somebody put up something for a million, and a month of a half later is $9.50, and so on and so forth. But at one point does it blow up? Because everything Powell has done, the distortions he created, blows up. And I'm not sure just yet what the cause. It's always going to be too much inventory,
Starting point is 00:45:27 stay tuned because that one could be a doozy. We'll be ready. You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.
Starting point is 00:45:44 I promise. Have a great day, everybody. Thanks for joining. Peace out all. Bye bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Go to GaryKK.com.
Starting point is 00:45:59 That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.
Starting point is 00:46:27 What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.