Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Mixed bag of slop [03.20.2025]

Episode Date: March 20, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, happy about your presence. It's Thursday. It's March 20th. It's 2025. And I believe this is a very important. only happened three times now. We are actually pre-taping this show in the midst of the market. It is 1 p.m. right now. Every now and then, we have to do that. I think one of the times we had to do it

because of COVID. Another time, there was like tornadoes or something. So just every now and then, we appreciate your understanding up front. As always, Serious talk. And right now, a little bit more serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry. What's going on with Tesla and Elon Musk? What does that have to do with you? Well, we think plenty.

Doge, tariffs. what does that have to do with you? Oh, a lot. And whatever else comes to mind. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should.

We'll also post it on the podcast apps. And if you'd like to email us, all you've got to do is be nice. Because we're nice back. We can disagree. 1,000 percent, I'll still respect you. Unless you praise Hamas or your king Tesla cars or destroying property, you get the point. So we're going to start with the market because it really is trying to recover.

And we had a decent day yesterday and a crappy finish off the Fed. Let me give you an understanding of what's happened already today. And look, it's going to be fluid. It's only 1 o'clock. but just to give you an understanding. And this is near-term stuff, not necessarily the bigger picture, which has been less than thrilling. But the market opened today on the Dow at 41695 hit a high of 42-250, and right now it's at 42,000. So it's 305 points off the lows and 250 points off the highs and is up 35 points.

on the day. And that's not big in percentage terms, but trust me when I state to you, it's a pain in the rear when the market's trying to recover. The NASDAQ opens at 17-576, hit a high as 17903, it's 17691 as I speak. So we were down about 120. We were up about 200. Let me get this right. 695, 799. We were up about 150.

We're now down 50. What causes that? It's just the market trying to find itself. To be clear, on the negative front, if the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow S&P, break the lows of the last week or two, look out. Right now, they are holding, and yesterday it looked like they were trying to do that first stair step up. Today they were trying early again, and maybe they'll try later on, but they came in and sold it down to it. What do we do as far as tactics right now? Oh, we're close to the vest. We're very close to the vest. Good amount of cash. Watching closely. But while all this is going on, we are constantly gauging. And what do we mean by gauging? What stocks have bucked the trend? When I can outline a thousand stocks that are down 20 percent, but five stocks that are down 3%.

I want to know those three stocks and why and what they do. The problem right now is I can tell you this. I know where the strength is, but when we say strength, they ain't gone anywhere. They're just better than most. Everything has to do with what if, what if the cloud's clear and the market gets going, what am I looking for?

The strongest names in the market that had the strongest reactions on earnings that are not as far down as so many other things that have been absolutely blasted. That's the goal right now. That's the goal right now. And may I repeat, there ain't much. I've mentioned the names to you. Spotify, DoorDash, Netflix. I throw Palantier in there because it's sitting around the 50-day moving out. average though I worry about its valuation and some of our worry about a value valuation calls like

Costco turned out to be pretty good as that stock is cratered but some other things going on today we want you to know about number one China we've been harping on it finally pulling back and I'd say this one this pullback probably sticks for a bit And that's good news. And what we'll do there also is what's the strength there? I have some names that don't look good. And then I have names like Alibaba that have been a rock. But I think probably some near term tops.

My worry on China, it's government. They still have serious debt problems, serious real estate problems. We'll see. We'll keep you informed. But we think right here, right now, overall, near-term top. And near-term just means near-term for right now. We get asked all the time about the economy. We're worried.

We have no bias. Just remember, there are those that are politically inclined that have a bias. The left will tell you we're falling off a cliff, the right will tell you no we're good it's uh it's slow ing there's a slowdown and do you know how i know oh we're getting hundreds of emails from you guys and we're hearing from you and there's some good things i just got one today from a trucker that said man oh man there were a ton of trucks on the road that that is a um a tidbit but then we've got some emails from some restaurants oh business is down about 9%, oh, 7%.

Sporting goods stores, business down 8%. High-end stuff not selling. And when we look at the stocks, guess what we're seeing? A lot of consumer discretionary stuff in bearish phases. A lot of retail.

The airlines. A lot more retail. The airlines, cruise lines, auto dealers, hotels. And I must tell you, because of my parents, I haven't really done. I did something with my son for about eight days in Hawaii a while back, but I really want this summer to, you know, go away for a week. And you know, my second favorite place besides Hawaii is Italy. The hotel prices there are in.

saying people are paying great i was looking at the amalfi coast two thousand dollars per night and we're not talking the top flight places the top flight places five thousand a night people are paying that wow wow i also saw on the news they were saying airline prices are down you know my statement to that is where i fly every week I used to be able to fly Florida, New York for 300. I'm 5.5.50 every week. Yeah, I know you can go spirit air and stuff, but after you do all the a la carte stuff, it's up there too. So we do think the consumer, and we're going to watch that closely because they tell us the consumers like 70% of the economy.

We'll keep you informed. So the market's moving here. It's rallying up a little bit when we came on. The Dow was up 30 and the NASDAQ was down 50. The Dow was up 90. The NASDAQ's only down 17 now. Yay. But overall, the markets had this big, gigantic body blow.

It is trying to recover. We'll see. On the tariff front, yesterday we got something out of the White House that said, yeah, we probably can be easier. on this April 2nd reciprocal tariff. Last night, the president did an interview and said the opposite. Up next, more on that. Much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

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Okay. So as the market's rumbling and stumbling and bubbling, Dow's back up 95, S&P's up one, NASDAQ's down 10. It's been all over the map since this morning. And again, it's almost like an everyday occurrence where I say to you, I love Trump on where he's going with tax cuts. I love Trump where he's going on regulations. I love what they're doing with Doge, though I am not happy with the way they're going about a lot of it, especially the human part of it, and just firing a ton of people without, I don't think they're doing enough due diligence.

These are people. And these are people that all they did was get a job with government. Oh, we're just going to fire you. I think they got to act a little better as managers. That's my take. But without a doubt, they need to do something about it. I was looking, people send me things, and I look, you know, when I do my due diligence, people like Mark Cuban five years ago said we need to do this, that we can cover government by a third.

You don't hear him saying a word now. politics. Obama called for it. You don't hear him saying a word defending Doge. Politics. I just want you to remember that. There have been a bunch of people on the left for years that have been calling for Doge and doing something about government, but you don't hear anything now because it's not fashionable. It's not fashionable. And the media sucks. They absolutely suck. When Obama said it, it's cool. When Trump does it, it's bad. And of course, anybody who commits violence against anything or anyone, arrest them, charge them, indict them, put them on trial if found guilty, A, make them pay penance, and B, you put them in jail for a certain. period of time and then you market the hell out of it and maybe the next idiot won't do it. What did they find? And amazing, I think all these people forgot. Everybody gets videoed everywhere now. You can't get away with squat.

There's a guy that kind of walked up and just started King a Tesla. He's a team. They find out he's a teacher. They got the video. We'll see if he gets canned or not. I don't know. He'll probably get promoted the way some of these schools are. But Molotov cocktails, blowing up cars?

Huh? Do you know Elon Musk? I was watching every now and then, I got to do it. I watched CNN yesterday. They hate him on CNN. The anchors, you got to see the, they don't say it. You can just feel it. You see it in their attitudes.

They hate the guy. They loved him three, four years ago before he owned X, Twitter. They loved him for his electric vehicles. They loved him for SpaceX, but now he's scum. It's amazing to watch. They're not mad at the people that have committed fraud, but they're pissed off at the people that are uncovering the fraud. And may I be clear and concise, and I'd say it to their faces.

Massive amounts of fraud was committed, massive amounts of crime was committed by people on the left that were best friends with John Podesta, who got the $350 billion from Biden for climate. And everything I have told you about climate is now correct, because all of a sudden, Tesla's are bad, let's destroy them, even their electric vehicles. and this is the left who believes in the climate, even though they're being conned. It's just amazing to watch. Jimmy Kimmel does a tongue in cheek about destroying Tesla's. In other words, intimating you keep doing it. This is a late-night comedic host.

You think ABC's going to sit them down, that you are basically kind of sort of, giving a checkmark to violence, you think? Maybe they would. Or are they going to wait for somebody who's in a Tesla car and somebody lights it on fire and they die? Maybe that will move the dial. I mean, we always know there's ass clowns out there. We see them. Hamas lovers, people that riot and destroy, this one's a big wow. Love to hate because of we're uncovering fraud and trying to do better with government.

Though, as I have said, I think they need to do better on the firing side, but they don't care what I think. Anyway, what does it have to do with you? Tim Walts wanted to be vice president. He's out there wishing for Tesla stock to go to zero. He was out there yesterday. As I said, oh, on my phone, I have the stock app. Oh, and it's great to see Tesla stock is down to $2.25.

And the audience applauded. He got the audience to applaud that a stock price of a company, an American company that's done such good is going down. A man that would want to be vice president. And by the way, looks like he's running for president in 28. It looks like it. He also said he'd like to kick some Republicans' asses. What does it have to do with anything?

These are the people that want to be running your country, thrilled with violence. thrilled with destruction, thrilled with somebody's company going south, thrilled. We'll keep you informed as we move forward, but I got to tell you. Dow up 61, NASDAQ down 36 now, NASDAQ 100, down 42. And I got to tell you, still, Google, no friends, Microsoft, no friends, Amazon, no friends, Tesla, no friends. Apple's dead.

Costco after their earnings. Pretty much dead money. There's a lot of big names out there. Just ain't happening. The semiconductors rallied a little bit, but not much. And again, I have to reiterate consumer discretionary. Everything. Up next.

More. I missed the one and only early Investors' Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

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You're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to. Some other some other worries I have. So again, I repeat, I'm totally against this whole tariff thing. I'm totally against the uncertainty of it. I'm totally against the changing of the wins on tariffs on a daily basis.

As I stated, yesterday they came out as it wasn't directly from Trump, but representing him, oh, well, we're going to be in discussions. We think we're going to be able to do better on the tariffs and lower the tariffs come April 2nd. and then he does a show last night. No, no, no, no, no, we're going full bore. That's worrisome. And there are certain things that I follow in case you don't know, things that stand out for me.

Number one, we do our own channel checks. When I go to the publics here, I'm constantly bothering people that work there. What's going on with this? What's going on? that, by the way, egg prices are falling big time now. Another thing that I follow is something called CEO Confidence. This is Chief Executive Officers.

There is something called Chief Executive Magazine, and I'm just letting you know, the U.S. CEO Confidence measures has dropped to its lowest level in 13 years. It's the largest monthly decline in the history of the poll. The economic outlook for the next 12 months fell 28% since the lowest in 2012. Only 39% of respondents now believe the business climate will improve this year, down from 52% at the beginning of the year.

at the same time, 36% expects things to get worse, up from 20. Now, these are CEOs. I don't know which ones they are. They don't tell you who, but these are CEOs. And I really do believe this tells me, and I'm in hopes the administration sees this. This matters. These are people that have their hands on the pulse of business.

I really do believe this tariff thing is causing. I do. And I wish I had the president's ear. I don't know if he would listen to me. And in no way, shape, or form am I like others and putting down this? We're just stating what we believe. You can't be the president and have economic policy, such important economic policy, change everything.

other day. And I don't care what any of them say. Tariffs are not good for the economy. But they're talking about a tariff-based economy. We're just reporting to you the news. We're always hopeful. We're always optimistic. But we're always realistic. And I don't think this is unimportant. And if there is anyone who knows, it's these people. And when we say to you, this is serious talk on everything that matters to you, with no bias, a gender ulterior motive, it does not matter to us who's running the joint. R, D, I, or the Whig Party. We just want good policy. And I just worry, he's got such good policies that. this one sticks it in the teeth.

They say lower taxes are an elixir for the economy, but this is raising taxes. Case closed. There's no in between. One of the excuses they come up with, well, the goal is for everybody instead of importing to produce here. Great. It's a great idea, but that does not happen overnight.

It does not happen in a day, a week, or month. It's over a long period of time, figuring out where and how, building supply chains, trusting the exporter to deliver on time and at the price you decided on. And in good shape, if any of you know the administration, have them, call me. I'll give them the real. with no agenda, bias, or ulterior motive, but just to have good sound policy. By the way, I've always said to you that there's certain people to follow on Twitter. One of my favorites, and I met the young man in the green room at Fox. Go look for the Kobesi letter, K-O-B-E-I-S-S-I on Twitter.

and plus you can subscribe to their I guess they have a newsletter and no they don't know I'm mentioning them and I don't get a penny if you subscribe to their newsletter great information coming at you daily again on Twitter the

cobbsey letter K-O-B-E-I S-S-I markets falling off a little bit what I just say a few minutes ago the Dow was up 90 no it's down 26 S&P down 14 NASDAQ down 64, NASDAQ 100 down 76.

The lows of the last two, three weeks have held very nicely. We don't want to lose those lows. No, we don't. As we said earlier, China finally pulling back. We'll be watching that closely because it's been a definite port in the storm. Though, how do you invest in communism? And I must tell you, I've been to, China once and I loved

the trip magnificent country I still think aliens built the great wall of China I don't know how to hell somebody did that or how many did it I don't think I can go back I would worry about they have jailed people

for disagreeing with the country I don't know if I can ever go back And I'll Shanghai Fantastic Poudang fantastic Beijing Fantastic

Fantastic Fantastic A fantastic I saw the Terracotta warriors Go look that up Another amazing part I don't think I can ever go back

I'd be too afraid They've jailed innocent people For speaking out No thank you I'll stay in Florida. Dow down 66, NASDAQ down 88, NASDAQ 100, down 100. It was a very hopeful early part of the day. Not thrilling right now. And on a daily basis, we'll keep you informed tomorrow. You'll be getting Adam.

I'm traveling up to see the Big Dad trying to get an earlier flight and that's why Adam will be doing the show. instead of getting into New York at midnight, which is no fun. I hope you get where I am coming from. Our agenda is good policy without bias. We don't care who. We gave up on Biden because of what he did on purpose. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. I'm Gary.

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Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination plus enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access society. subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include

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You're listening to... What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action. Investors Edge with Gary Colpaw.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Got some emails on my Kathy Wood thing of Bob yesterday. I've never met her. I'm sure she's a nice person. As we've said to you, we take on nobody on the industry.

Ever. We stopped in 2010. But I'm not making it up when I say, the last couple years we've gotten a thousand emails on this and we are not appreciative her calling for outlandish predictions and yesterday another 1.5 million for Bitcoin and she's propped up even though down 70% in four years again nothing against her but we deal in two things here facts and the protection of capital

Of course, you've got to protect your own capital when things are awry. We just try to tell you what we think. And we hope for her success. We hope she hits grand slams. We want everybody. We want everybody to succeed. But we get lots of questions on it. And we got a few last night, so we figure we address it.

I got nothing personal. I don't know her. Doesn't matter. It just the last bare market in Bitcoin dropped 75%, and you're in a downtrend now. And if the NASDAQ that goes into a real bare market, we think there's a chance. We're not saying it's going to. What if it goes down 75%. Ethereum's down over 50% since December.

You don't think Bitcoin can? I keep being told, well, the reason it can't is because there's only a certain amount of Bitcoin. It didn't stop from dropping 75% in 21-22. I just want to make sure you know that because it's been mainstreamed. The people in it don't talk about it like it's what it really is. They talk about it like it's Merck, IBM, Apple, like it's something real. It's not. It produces nothing.

They told us we're going to be able to use it to buy things. and they started doing that until it dropped like a rock and people don't want to accept it anymore. And maybe there's a little of that going on. But who the hell wants to accept a currency that can be down 20% next week or even up 20%. You decide. Be careful. There are agendas out there. We have one.

Protect capital. It's very easy to lose money. very easy if you're not careful and there have been a lot of minefields kids in the last few years the latest ones have been the nuclear stocks the quantum stocks and people are getting in front of you

and telling you about these quantum companies not saying oh by the way they have no sales but you got to own them I don't hear that I heard one of them talk about one of them the other day. Did not mention they have no sales.

That pisses me off. So do your homework. These are the questions we get asked about. A lot. Why? They're the hot thing. Beyond meat was the hot thing a long while ago.

And you know what we kept saying every day. Come on, plants. It's gone from 240 down to three. Sometimes you just got to be a little logical. So we'll keep just telling you whether something has meat or something has fluff.

And there's a lot of fluff in the markets. Be careful. On the Doge today, we're going to pass on the Doge today. Adam will be doing the show tomorrow. We'll be back on Monday. but I got to tell you, they are just saving a ton. I do want to let you know the president looks like he's doing executive order today, disbanding the Department of Education, which is a big wow,

and throwing it to the states. I have no idea what that means yet, but I will be spending some time over the weekend trying to figure out exactly how that's going to work. And frankly, I would tell you straight up, I don't know exactly what the Department of Education does as a specific function, but we'll figure that out too. And by the way, that's not a put-down. But just letting you know what the President of the United States is doing,

he said what he was going to do, and he's doing it. Am I surprised? Yes. I am very surprised. Do I know outcome? I don't. But let's hope whatever he is doing, and there's a lot of movement afoot. We're hoping he gets it right.

Because you have an economy that's used to something that's losing what the economy is used to, whether good or bad. And I just wonder if there will be repercussions. I don't know. Call me on the agnostic side. but we're doing our own little legwork and I'm not so sure that'll even get us to figure it out because of so many moving parts.

All right, so it's as we close Dowdown 31, NASDAQ down 72, it's all over the map today. Adam will be with you tomorrow, but we'll send them notes on the market while we're traveling. You have a great evening, rest of your day. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel

better stay well be well surrender you now bye bye this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's gary k Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your first? Your wallet. Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.