Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Moodys haha [05.19.2025]

Episode Date: May 19, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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studios here is gary cult bomb and welcome once again to investors edge i'm gary coltbaum your host day thanks for being with us today glad you here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it is monday the 19th i had a look at that may 19th 2025 and there are days that are not newsy and there are days that are newsy we will cover the newsy today

ladies and gentlemen we'll also as always serious talk on everything that affects you the markets the economy your job your industry tariffs doge anything that comes to mind hope you had a good weekend I was in

New York City Thursday to Sunday Hung with the dad I'm flying back up there Thursday Through Monday Memorial Day Hang with my dad He's doing good

For 93 and a half year old And I think the big pick me up for him Yes the big pick me up for him The Knicks In case you don't know My father is a very big Knicks Knicks and Giants fan. He's not a Mets fan like I am. I'm pretty sure he's the big Yankee fan. We won't hold that against him. Anyway, he had a good weekend and, you know, miracles do happen.

As I told you, what was it, three weeks ago now, that the rabbi came into the hospital room. The doctor was saying to me that he was not being responsive and this is like the, I don't know what you call it. And then the next day, the pneumonia and the fluid on the lungs went away. And he started being responsive. He still can't take care of himself, but his brain is 100%. Speech cloudy, but gets it out. and we have great help and we've received thousands of emails

from all of you that have experienced the same thing. I've never felt more important in my life. That's all I can tell you. That was the weekend and we head into the week and we do have lots to cover. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email me, all you got to do is be nice. It's pretty simple. We're going to start out with Joe Biden. Joe Biden was diagnosed with stage four prostate cancer that is metastasized to his bones. And I must tell you, the loony politicos are out there trying to how long.

long have they known it have they known it who was running the what we've already did that a hundred times we're going to finish this up and we're not going to talk about him again why humanity the man has stage four cancer it's in his bones 10 years ago it would be pretty quick the good news is now there are therapies what i guess the words therapies to elongate But after today, we leave him be. We'll let the politicos, I mean, they're out in force. They're out in force about what, when, how, why. The bottom line, as we have told you, four years on purpose, open borders,

massive debt, massive deficits, bad foreign policy. You know about Afghanistan. left Jews, Jewish students in the lurch at, I can go on and on. But now we're done. Let him, hopefully, his health, because if you don't have your health, you don't have much. Just, I'm sure you know that. I have met billionaires that don't have their health. I've met multi-zillionaires that hate the world.

world. Wouldn't know why. What we ask each and every one of you is look around you. Opportunity is there to be great and we don't measure it by money, but we just want to move forward on this and let all the politicos yap away about, I mean, there was one today about, oh, he must have got this four years ago. They knew about it and they kept, okay, fine. And how is that going to change tomorrow? we already know about politicians and stuff. We already know. We already know about his family and his corruption.

We've done all that. We move on. Moody's, in case you don't know, they're a rating service. In case you don't know, they suck. Just like the S&P, they all suck. Just so you know, these are just people. It's just people with their opinions. And I believe the S&P lowered our ratings on our debt many years ago.

So all of a sudden, Moody's, let me explain to you why they suck. This was a political move. This could have been done any time in the last 15 years. It certainly should have been done in the last four years when they took deficits to a whopping $2 trillion a year. But now let's speak up. the interesting thing about Moody's downgrading, the market finished up today after opening down. Does that mean we don't go down tomorrow?

I didn't say that. But I'm just letting you know it was political. The head economist at Moody's is just another person. I don't know him personally. Mark Zandi, I'm sure he's a nice man, but he's just another person in the tank. You know what we mean by In the Tank, right? You know what we mean by In the Tank. We're in Nobody's Tank.

We take on all combers. We don't care about RDI. We don't care about the Whig Party. So Mark Zandis, the chief economist there, let's downgrade debt. Terrific. The market was still up. Tomorrow's another day.

So just letting you know about Moody's did that. Next thing I want to bring up, because it's big time in the news, United Health. It was up $24 today. In case you don't know, the stock had dropped from $606 to $249. By the way, that was the low on Thursday. So it's gone from $249 to $312 since the low on Wednesday. On Wednesday, it closed at 274 and change.

The story that really sent it into oblivion was there's a, a criminal investigation. And I haven't even confirmed that, but I know I saw that somebody said it. I just want to let you know something else about it. And that is the new CEO. And this doesn't mean it's going up, but he's already been smart. Stephen Hemsley, the new chairman and CEO, bought 86,700 shares for a total of $25 million on Friday. at $288.57. So he's already up $24. Make that $27 on 86,000 shares.

Damn, what is that about $2.something million? I also want to let you know that John Rex, the CFO, chief financial officer, bought $17,175 shares, or almost $5 million on the same day, a little bit higher at 291. So the CFO and the chairman and CEO are betting big bucks. Well, actually, I don't know their net worth. So I don't know whether it's big bucks in comparison to their net worth. But they have put up some bucks on Friday, but the stock has already moved pretty good.

I think probably today was off of some of that that came out in the news today that they bought on Friday. I have yet to see anything on criminal investigation. I believe United Health said they never received anything like that. It got downgraded today by somebody. Interesting. And I'm just looking around about it. And I don't know. If you can tell me if there is definitively a criminal investigation, please let me know.

But all I know right now is a Wall Street Journal report that the DOJ is investigating the company for criminal medical fraud. The United Health has not received anything on it. And I guess the fact that DOJ is not yapped about it yet, that also is helping out. So there's a lot of uncertainty. But the head honcho top dog Big Cheese is jumping on it. And there's your story. Those were the bigger news of the day, except there was one more. I hate to bring it up.

Tariffs. Over the weekend, they were talking tough. Trump and Besant. Looks like they're walking it back, though. There was talk. I'm not making it. These were the words. They could go back to the tariffs

before the pause. Up next. We'll light that up. And then Markets. I'm Gary. This is the one-only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum. Hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investors Edge.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, the Treasury Secretary said, if all those countries do not act in best interest or something to that effect, those tariffs can go back before the pause. If you do recall that those tariffs crash the market.

Those tariffs crash the market. The pause that came immediately relieved the crash and bottomed the market, which calls into question, is this Treasury Secretary insane? And I would ask that to his face. Are you insane? You crash the market. The reason why the market bottom is you undid those tariffs. You want to go back to it to crash the market again?

That would be a logical question, wouldn't it? I wish they knew me. I can save so much, so much strife if they followed my lead. You know our rules here. You know our thoughts if I was president. lower taxes, less regulations, strong border, strong against crime, backing of the police and the military,

get the hell out of the way. How hard is that? How hard is that? How hard is that? I'm afraid that ain't going to happen, though, because we have a very active president. And let's keep fingers crossed. They do not go backwards.

Because if they do, they will crumble the markets again. And I hate saying that, but that is a fact. I am already, listen carefully, they're at some tariffs in place. I am already seeing companies, and I'm looking at prices. I'm not going to name who.

Companies are now putting tariff prices onto products in many areas of business. Just letting you know. And just remember, we don't make anything up here. We confirm everything. We confirm everything. If they had kept those tariffs on, all hell would have broken loose. If they kept the tariffs on Apple, let's see, Apple closed today down three bucks to 208.

It'd probably be about 180 right now. No, not kidding. If they kept the tariffs on Vietnam in Taiwan and them, Nike, other shoe companies would be down 20, 25% from here. And he goes on TV to say, we can actually go back there. Oh, gosh. Sigh. Anyway, United Health was up $24.

That'll come out to, let's see, 24 times 6.5, 156 Dow points. approximately the Dow was up 137. A week today were Apple, Amgen, Salesforce.com, Goldman, just so you know, J.P. Morgan was at some conference today, and whatever they said, J.P. Morgan's stock finished down, 267, was down at one time 560.

But also, Goldman Sachs at one time today, was down 20 in change. Finish down 6 in change. I can't even decipher why they went down, to be honest with you. S&P up 5, NASDAQ only up 4. NASDAQ 100 up 19. Transport's down 40. Advanced declines, flat and flat.

Weak was oils. Just they remain in a void. Week was most of the semis. housing, a bunch of the transports, Solars, there was some news about the government and solar, so they whacked the heck out of first solar today. Gold was strong when you have a chance. Go look at the GLD,

and I just want you to notice that it popped off the 50-day moving average. Friday it held, today it popped off, whether or not it continues, I don't know, but bullish markets continue when price pulls back to the 50-day moving average holds and rallies. Just letting you know. So the Moody's thing, market didn't really care much, open bad. I just want you to remember, they're just people.

And just so you know, the rating services, I think, are laughable. and I say that because of 08. They rated mortgage-back securities AAA that should have been triple Z. They didn't do their job. I think they do a lot of boilerplate. And by the way, I'd say it all in their faces. We think they're just boilerplate. They do have great businesses.

God bless them. Now, was Moody's right to downgrade our debt? Hell yes. You know, the Republicans, are now passing a budget. That's going to add $5 trillion plus to our debt, which means $8 to $10. But you know what they say?

We have to. Because if we don't do this, we cannot extend the tax cuts and make them permanent. Oh, yes, they could have. They could have done one bill on making the tax cuts permanent. That's the bill they should have done. But no.

I don't need to get into what the minutia, but they left us for debt again. And when they tell you how much they care, just tell them what I say, up yours. They don't. They don't. They don't. You have to remember, they realized a long time ago, their power base is in their spending. And when they don't have enough, just go into debt. And when you think you have a little bit of debt, do more.

You have to remember many years ago, they used to fight over the debt ceiling. And how did we get to the point of $2 trillion yearly deficits? They just kept testing the next number. And the next, and the next, and the next, and the next. And then given us double-barrel middle fingers. And most of the culprits are either dead or retiring. and the ones doing it now will be dead or retiring

and if it blows up tomorrow each party blames each other and with the victims up next we'll put a bow tie on that and what else this is the one only investors edge guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the

premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Your Earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relevant. and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, what makes Gary sick to his stomach? just remember they're all con artists every one of them in this new budget as much as the republic cons complained for four years under joe biden there are absolutely no recisions or repeal of the inflation reduction act which includes the $350 billion that went to that Democrat hack, John Podesta. Now, why wouldn't they repeal that?

Why wouldn't they get rid of that whole monstrosity? Because it lowers the spending. They don't want to lower the spending. Because if they keep spending that $1.8 trillion a year, they get to move it to wherever they want to move it to and screw the fact it adds to the debt. That's all. We're going to send them probably $5 trillion this year. In 2019, federal spending was $4.4.

Why not do what Gary would do? Take that $4.4, add in the guarantees. If the numbers are higher for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, add it to that 4.4. And that's it. Nope. Because the inflation reduction reduction, Act, had all this money in it, this called baseline budgeting.

All subsidies for the Green New Deal are still intact also. They didn't remove those. There's no cuts to Obamacare. I can go on, but it's just nausea. They just don't care. There are only four people in the Republican Party that stood up, but they were forced to in the end vote present, which passed it, made it go through, and then they go through to the Senate and then to the president. But it guarantees, let's see, it guarantees that without any recession or much higher interest rates, we're 50 trillion in debt, but don't worry, it's only 50 trillion. and I actually have people say, well, you've been talking about it since $20 trillion. It's now 37 and we're still here.

People actually say that. Of course, those people are in the tank. Remember, the tank. You know what the tank is? If somebody on the left does something, it's the end of the world. If somebody on the right does the exact same thing, necessary evil. and vice versa. If somebody in the right does something,

somebody in the left will always say it's the end of the world. And if somebody in the left does the same thing, oh, it's okay. So we're screwed even more. That's all. So Moody's is right to do what they did. They did it politically, and they should have done it in the last four years,

if not before that. But they couldn't do it the last four years because that's their guy. Welcome to our world. And $37 trillion spent over and above what they was supposed to spend. Just remember that. Just remember who these people are. We were always supposed to have balanced budgets. I don't know if you know that.

I don't know if you know that. they don't want you to remember that they don't want you to remember you used to not pay taxes on your Social Security did you know that they don't want you to know that and Donald Trump's not going to change it

he's not going to be a hero either and as I said when it blows up each party is going to blame each other but will be the victims like 08 like 08 who was the victims us. They took $800 billion of our tax dollars, save their asses. Nobody got indicted even though they all committed fraud. They all became billionaires off of it. And what did we get in return? Next. Jamie Diamond, head of J.P. Morgan. The greatest banker of all time, in my opinion. I mean, just amazing. But not real good.

on the markets. And believe it or not, that grade on the economy, I follow. And this is not taking them on. I'm just stating fact. There's been more than a few times where markets were in trouble

and he said we're going much lower and they just turned around. And same for the economy. He's saying that markets are too complacent on tariffs. He expects S&P 500 earnings growth to collapse. So let me explain to you. If he's right, one thing will definitely happen. If S&P 500 earnings growth are going to collapse, the market will do it beforehand. I want you to remember that. If earnings growth collapse, the market will do it beforehand. But as of now,

we've had tariff down, get rid of tariff up. And we're back to massive overhead resistance. You got a few new yearly highs, which is quite amazing considering where we were. And we'll just take it day by day. If more new yearly highs show up, if more leadership shows up, we'll know. If we start to gag. Oh, we'll know. People that have been listening to this show forever? No. We let the market dictate policy.

Not somebody's opinion. Doesn't matter who. Even Paul Tudor Jones recently said, Mark, it's going to take a crap. And so far it has not. If anything changes, we'll let you know. But we had another day to day where there was an opportunity. to have a rough day.

The Moody's thing, whatever. But the doubt today, I think right at the open, yeah, right at the open was 42-337. That was 455, but we were down 320 at one time today, very early in the morning. It's good to know. The NASDAQ early in the morning was 18-937. No, that can't be. Yes, it can. It was down about 270 points and finished up four.

67, 2. Yeah, about that match. 27280. And we're big believers in the market had a chance too. And when it's down big and finishes better, had a chance to stay down. When the market's really strong and finishes down, well, the market had a chance to be strong. And then, as I stated,

New Yearly High List is picking up a little bit. That's good to see. If more names show up, will be in good stead. And as we say to you, if anything changes, we will let you know. We watch the markets very, very closely,

and we let them dictate policy on us. We do not tell them, markets what we think because we know what happens if we do we get run over anything else uh europe had another decent day i keep reading europe has got big problems and recessions and socialism europe strong europe is strong that's all i can tell you which is quite the amazing quite the amazing and the United Arab Emirates New Yearly High

Poland New Yearly High Almost Germany Right there over there Up next This that and the other thing

And whatever else This is the one only Investors Edge It's no use putting it off The best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. They're zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X. card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge with Gary Kaltba. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

So, as you know, I'm a big rock guy. I'm going to see The Who one more time. They're touring one more time. So I'm going to see him last time I saw my front row in Jacksonville. I think it was like six, seven years ago. Boy, it was great. I'm going to see the Eagles, even though it's kind of four Eagles, as the Great Glenn Fry passed away a long while back,

but Deacon Fry, his son plays in Vince Gill, who's really good too. I'm going to go see them at the sphere. And then I think I'm done from all my favorites. I don't think Russia's going to tour again. Certainly Phil Collins is done with Genesis. And I do know, yes, it's not really yes, but John Anderson is touring.

I may go see that. In fact, I believe he was up around New York recently. One of the greatest voices as far as I'm concerned. John Anderson, I'm looking at it right now. John Anderson tour. Ooh, Ruth Eckerd Hall, is that Sarasota? June 20th. Ladies and gentlemen, Friday, June 20th,

You will find me at Ruth Eckerd Hall in Clearwater, Florida. Friday, June 20th. Yes. Well, they're not yes anymore, but it's John Anderson. It's called John Anderson and the Beatt and Geeks, by the way. And he sings all the yes songs. And that is my musical, Whatchamadugi of the day. In sports, Scott Sheffler, man.

wins the PGA. I watched them at the Masters last year. And you know what it was like watching? His five iron is like my putter. You know, you have control of a three-foot putt. He has such great feel for his irons. We haven't seen anything like that. And he is a rare breed.

Unbelievable. This guy's going to win so much. It's not even funny. And he has the other. other thing, the gene. You know what the gene is, right? Nerves of steel. The Knicks against Indiana, we're in sports section right now. Now that we beat Boston, let's hope they are not celebrating because the goal is to win the whole freaking thing. I'm just, this Oklahoma Homer City team looks really good.

Well, first, let's get past Indiana. And that is your sports part of the day-to-day as we move forward. So a few things of note. We're still from the lows on the removal of tariffs, the pause, and then the China, we call it the de-escalation. markets are stretched, extended, overbought, big dose of bullishness, a complete coast to coast from rabid bearishness to over-the-top bullishness with the many are just plain old giddy. and I heard some people

guaranteeing we're going to have a big year in the markets and we're going to be up nicely and this, that, and the other thing. That worries me. I've been hoping we get some scared days. See, today?

We were down 300. I wouldn't have mind staying down. What? Gary, you're mean. No, no, no, no. In order to go higher, you got to go lower. Markets go higher based on doubt, bearishness,

depression. In order to go higher, you've got to go lower. I've been hoping for some scare days or at least some pulling back. And I can tell you, we pretty much mark time in the last few days, but we want more than that. We don't want everybody getting comfortable then you could get in big trouble.

To have some scare days right here would be terrific. Pullbacks. Terrific. Would make the setups in the market that much better and terrific. But it didn't happen today. And if it doesn't happen on what is considered to be bad news, probably means we got some more to go on the upside near term. We're pretty much past a ton of our...

earnings. There's a few this week. I think Home Depot's coming out. Viking Holdings. The cruise line, Lowe's with Home Depot, Target, T.J. Max. I get my Scooby-Doo stocks there. Urban Outfitters, Best Buy, analog devices, Ralph Lauren, Decker's, Intuit, Raw Stores, Workday, Dollar Tree. So there's a few. but most of the big stuff is out of here. But good stead. And gold again, as I repeated, held right where it needed to. And if you don't know what I'm talking about, go get a chart of the GLD with the 50-day moving average

and you will see on Friday, pretty much almost touched it, bounced, and today gapped up and stayed up. So that stays in that, Uptrend. And then I got to mention Dow stocks. IBM New Yearly High. McDonald's and travelers look like they want to break out.

And United Health finally a big help today, but no thank you to that one. And boy, we've received a lot of emails on United Health. That all said, you have a great evening and drive carefully when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. feel better, you'll feel better, I promise stay well, be well. I'm going to get a haircut. Until tomorrow, good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes

or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.