Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - MORE DETERIORATION
Episode Date: April 5, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary cult bomb
straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb and welcome
once again to investors edge i'm gary colpom your host day thanks of being with us today glad you
here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it's uh wednesday april 5th 2023
hope you having a good day let me start out by saying happy
Passover to all who celebrate. I celebrate Passover. Happy Easter, but all who celebrate Easter,
is that the big week. Friday, the market is closed. Good Friday. We wish everybody
happy, healthy, holiday, and safe, and all that. Not so sure I can go further, but you know where we
stand. We dig you all. And we'll have the best of Gary on Friday. Hey, this is a show about
everything that affects you. And in case you don't know, we're dead serious about everything we
talk about right now. We never used to have to talk about things we are talking about now.
We never used to have to talk about massive deficits and debt. We never used to talk about massive
corruption and insider trading by the people run in this country.
We never had to talk about the Biden family, the Trump family.
We've never had to talk about massive interference with our lives.
We've never had to talk about unbelievable amount of, amounts of we call control freakism,
socialism, Marxism, the things that this country has been completely against.
the lessening of our freedoms, which includes the markets.
We've never had to talk about that, but we noticed it years ago.
And it's gotten worse, and it's gotten worse, and it's gotten worse to the point where I was going to run for office.
Imagine me ruining my life to run for office to do something about it.
And then I was scared straight by a bunch of political operatives.
I explained that to you before.
But I digress.
Lots to cover today.
The markets, indictments, the city of Chicago and the voters there.
And if you don't think that matters, I can't help you.
The job markets yields.
Why are yields so important?
You ever been to, let's see,
a high school basketball game
and the cheerleaders are on the sideline
and they have these bullhorns
and if your ear was ever next to the bullhorn
while they're saying
N-O-T-H-I-N-G that's what so-and-so means to me
at their loudest and your ears just pop off
by the way that was in North Miami Beach
high school cheer at the time
well yields are screaming and combine with the things we have seen over the last couple of weeks
and accentuated the last couple of days we got to talk we hope you are listening
again we're dead serious about it whether you are or not so first if you do not get this
radio show in your city. We'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed where we
once had 90,000 Twitter followers and overnight we went to 30. And we called up to, well, we emailed
Twitter and like three months later, they got back to me. And then they shut me down for a day
because I wrote that Bernie Sanders' economic policy is communistic. They shut me down for a day
why the mullers in Iran are calling for Israel's death,
but little old me, they shut down those clowns.
And of course, you can email me just be nice.
And I have to tell you something.
I got one email today from a guy who says he likes me.
I know what he says to me?
I'm pro-money and pro-materialism.
And I just wrote back, if you're going to put me down whenever I have a conversation ever again.
Then he wrote me back.
He believes I'm a mensch, though.
That he didn't think he was insulting me.
I'm pro-materialism, and that's not an insult.
Don't you love people?
Anyway.
So if you email me, just be nice.
Why?
Because we're nice.
We're just very nice.
And if you disagree with us 1,000%
we'll respect you.
We'll have the right to disagree with you 1,000%.
But we'll respect you.
as long as you live within the rule of law.
Okay.
So where do we want to start?
Let's get it out of the way a few things.
Trump.
As usual, does himself no favors.
As we stated to you, and we are no Trump fan,
the fix is in this indictment.
And again, let us repeat,
we're not claiming innocent or guilt.
And he's innocent before guilty no matter what.
In spite of what Nancy Pelosi said, this is about if he was a Democrat and a friend of the DA,
there would never even be an investigation.
That's what we mean by the politicking of indictments.
That's what's going on here.
Again, he may be guilty.
And the fact that the matter is, the guy is an ass clown.
Oh, yeah, let's cheat on our wives of porn stars and pay him off.
More than one.
Yeah, great.
What a nice guy.
Let's trust him.
And you know, I've always said, I never want to be friends with somebody who cheats on their wives.
Why?
If they cheat on their wives, how can you trust them with anything?
The wife is the most sacred of people you married.
So Trump, he can take them or leave him for all I give a crap.
But again, let me repeat, this is a con.
It's a scam.
In that, again, innocent or guilty, whatever.
If this was a Democrat, it would not have been done.
It is pure politics.
Just let's let you know.
But as usual, Trump does himself no favors.
He's his own worst enemy.
He comes out last night and does a speech and is his usual moron self.
And I hate the fact that the family comes out and puts a picture up of the judge's daughter in this environment
where there's a bunch of crazies out there.
And you put the judge's daughter in harm's way.
she's got a higher security
that's the Trump's sons
those two clowns
where is their class
idiots and I would say it
to their face
I got Newsfea
if they did it to my daughter
I'd be knocking at their door
so he did himself no favors
but bottom line
the Trumpsters are going to stay
Trumpsters and the anti-Trumpsters are going to
stay anti-Trumpsters that's all that's going to go on
here
and what they're going to try and do is string this out
into the primaries.
I don't know what their goal is.
I got to tell you,
I don't know what their goal is for him to win the primary
or lose the primary at this point in time.
Just so you know, there's no jail time on this
if he's found guilty.
So whatever.
Welcome to our world,
and this is how you get to $32 trillion of debt.
This is how you get to every day,
$4 to $5 billion added to our debt
and grows every day.
And every day,
two to two and a half billion
of our tax dollars
goes towards the interest on the debt
that all these nubskoles
put us into
over the past decades.
So I got that out of the way.
Chicago,
the two biggest problems in Chicago is education.
Go look at the numbers
about people who can't read
and can't do math
because the education system
has let them down.
And the other problem is crime.
And you read about that every day.
they voted in somebody who wants to defund the police and stay status quo with the unions and the education
over somebody who wanted to hire a hell of a lot more police and get strict on it and do something about education.
Blame the voters.
And by the way, each individual is a vote.
You got to add up the votes.
And I think it was 51 and change to 48 in change.
So they got rid of a moron mayor in Chicago and they just went worse.
and then they're going to wonder why crime remains rampant there
where people can't walk down certain streets
where doors are shutting
and companies are leaving the city
and they're going to wonder why
and by the way this guy that just won wants higher taxes
even more taxes on a high tax city
but they keep voting them in
anyway how to mention Chicago
and by the way
the other part of the Trump thing
Do you know who showed up to defend Trump last night right in front of Trump Tower?
George Santos, a gargantuan fraud of a human being that's a congressman?
Yeah, I want him to defend me.
All right, up next, Markets, lots to discuss.
Thanks for being here.
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All right.
Four weeks ago, five weeks ago, six weeks ago, we said to you,
and I'm pretty much quoting myself, that timing is everything.
And we think the next, I think we said 90 days, three months.
Yeah.
We believe the job market is going to worsen to the point where you're hearing about it.
The reason we said that is because we have a better ear to the ground than the clowns in D.C. that have a thousand analysts.
The ADP report came in. Growth of 145,000 jobs. The estimates were 205,000.
Now, that's only one number. On Friday morning, we'll get an employment number. We'll see.
but we're just letting you know it's loosening up we don't know if it's going to get bad we think the job market is loosening up the jolts
thing came in yesterday there's less jobs available too let me repeat what we said we think that the job
market's going to worsen we really do not know if it's going to get really bad we already know
there are areas that, and for obvious reasons, the crypto business, technology that just went overboard
during COVID, media companies, you know, a lot of these areas, mortgages, mortgage business,
even though interest rates have come down a lot from the highs. And we'll see. Just getting,
it's our feel. And we hope you listen to the best.
becoming very not expendable if you work for somebody else it's probably the smartest
thing we've ever said to our audience in the years we have been here make yourself
as about as important an employee as can be at your firm so the ADP comes in a
little bit and we we have no idea what they're going to come in with Friday and
maybe the number will be strong I don't know we just think overall
We're hitting the ceiling.
And now we'll watch to see if things worsen.
Next.
So yesterday, and we've been telling you how narrow the market's been,
we have highlighted for you that the top 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9 names in the S&P
contributed to 160% of the S&P gains.
from the beginning of the year.
That means the other 491 are down.
And of course, the nine names,
what do they all have in common?
You ready?
Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Facebook, Tesla, Amazon,
Google, Salesforce.com, and advanced microdevices.
They are mega-cap tech.
You know what else they mostly have in common?
Amazon earnings down 90%.
Facebook down 50%.
Microsoft down, not much but down,
NVIDIA 50%, Apple's down,
Google down 19%.
Salesforce.com last quarter did recover.
I'll give it that.
And I believe AMD was down 25%.
Need I say more, they better all recover.
Three of them, Apple, NVIDIA and Microsoft
contributed to 91% of the gains of the S&P.
That means 497 names contribute only 9%.
That's what we mean by too much influence.
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, and Facebook made up 24% of the S&P.
Seven names, 24%.
493 names, 76%.
And 51% of the NASDAQ 100.
And guess what's been doing the job?
We just highlighted for you.
So we just been posing the question, what happens if they start getting those?
And until today, they weren't getting those.
And they got them a little bit today, nothing really bad.
But we started really worrying about the markets again, the last couple of days.
Because of the bad, advanced declines, the bad New Yearly highs versus New Yearly
lows, which actually new yearly lows versus new yearly highs because there's a lot more new yearly
lows than new yearly highs. And yesterday, on top of the crash we have seen in the financials
of all stripes, and we mean all stripes, they have been crumbling in the past couple of days,
anything and everything that does best with the strong economy but does worse.
going into recessions, if not worse.
And today was another bad day for those names.
And on the other end of that spectrum,
when the economy is doing its best,
defensive issues don't do as well,
but when economies get in trouble,
defensive issues do best.
And what do we mean by defensive?
What were they called recession-resistant?
What would we mean by recession-resistant?
Well, you need your drugs.
You need to eat.
You love your soda and your beer.
You need detergent and soap and shampoo and diapers.
And for you maniacs, tobacco.
I don't know how anybody smokes cigarettes, man.
And guess what?
In the last two days.
Hershey's chloride.
Coke, Pepsi, Kimberly Clark, smuckers. So remember what I said about the bullhorn? Market's screaming economic trouble here. And let me add in another. You ready for this one? The 10-year yield is down to 3.287. The three-month Treasury bill is at 4.85. Wait, hold on. You're telling me the three-month Treasury bill. The three-month Treasury bill is at 4.85. Wait, hold on. You're telling me the three-month Treasury bill.
Treasury bill is 4.85 in the 10 years 3.287 isn't supposed to be the other way around. Yes. But it's called an inverted yield curve because the bet now is those short-term racers are going to crash. And the market itself, the free markets, the big bet is we're going to have some economic troubles in here. And it's by no accident, airlines, cruise lines, hotels, Caterpillar and Deer.
and United Rentals and Snap-on tools and Parker Hanofin and Martin Marietta materials
are getting smacked while today in the Dow Johnson and Johnson up seven United Health up 16
Walmart up two yeah Walmart's defensive retail Procter & Gamble up one so if the market has a
bullhorn it's using it right now more on that up next on this the one only investors edge
For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll.
Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships,
and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down.
Often without clear warning signs, in season three of the visibility gap,
Dr. Guy Wynch and his guests explore how these pressures show up,
how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support.
Listen to the new season of the visibility gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Health Care.
When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix.
Reach for vital proteins, collagen, and protein shaking chocolate.
With 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides,
it helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints,
and a smooth, ready-to-drink shake.
So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success.
Vital Proteins. Stay vital.
Visit VitalProtene's.com and get started.
These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration.
These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease.
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Investors Edge
He's got to be pleased with that
The crowd is just on his feet here
He's a Cinderella boy
With Gary Colbomb
It comes highly recommended
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him
And welcome once again to Investors Edge
And I must tell you
I've been watching some pundits on TV
Oh the market's so bullish
And I'm like, what the hell are they looking at
What kind of sbleaf are they smoking
Bullish?
I have got the financials crumbling
By the way the financials are very very, very
very, very, very stretched, extended and oversold right here, and they're probably going to bounce,
but that's only because they've crumbled. Retail stocks, smashed. Airlines, cruise lines, truckers,
rail, smashed. Economically sensitive stocks, smashed. Caterpillar, deer, Agco, smashed.
Smash, smash. Smash. Oh, but it's a bull market. Really? Because of a select few mega caps?
okay we'll see what tomorrow brings so here's what the market did today it accentuated the
defensive issues to the upside and when we say upside you don't get much out of
Hershey's but it's up a few bucks they accentuated everything economically
sensitive to the downside remember how we told you managed care stocks were like
defensive they popped again today what they did come after for
finally was some of the mega caps, not bad, but underneath those mega caps were names that
followed suit, but are already crumbling a lot. And you don't we already think about all this
things at the bottoms that have come up some, you know, the crowd strikes and the paypals and
the like, they're crumbling again. Now we get asked, well, Gary, if we go into recession,
doesn't that mean the Fed's going to lower rates? Yes. Well, isn't that good for markets? Not so
sure at the outset of recessions.
And let me explain that part.
Remember we talked about don't take a $5 bill to trade in for a dollar?
Well, valuations are very high.
That's number one.
And earnings, we've been quoting earnings to you and they stink.
A lot of them are down.
That is a one-two punch if it doesn't change.
two high valuations historically and earnings dropping, which makes valuations even higher.
We'll keep watching day to day.
We're just letting you know today, and we're going to give you the Dow number in a second.
You know, we've also taught you you don't want the Dow to be up and advance the clients to be negative 2 to 1.
Tells you the underlying market.
Hey, guess what happened today?
So it's just a day, but it's now been a few days of this ick, especially economically sensitive.
and it's also a day where they came after a bunch of things that were doing okay.
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The Dow was up 80, but advanced declines were 14 to 24 on the New York.
Now, listen carefully.
If I take Amgen, biotech defensive, somewhat, Johnson and Johnson, drugs.
Oh, by the way, Johnson Johnson was up seven today on the news.
Oh, they have to pay $8.9 billion because of the Talcum powder thing.
It's a good reason for a stock to go up.
Merck, drugs, United Health, HMOs, managed care, getting paid a lot of money by Medicare.
and Procter & Gamble.
I add up those names.
That's 13, 16, 17, and 16.
Let's call it 33 and 1.
It's $34.
They were up today times 6.78.
They were up 231 Dow points,
but the Dow was only up 80.
Catching my drift?
Very defensive day in the market.
By the way, I can add Walmart to that because it's a defensive retailer.
What do you mean by defensive retail?
Well, market will flow to the mega caps.
But the S&P was down 10 and the NASDAQ 129, NASDAQ 100, 132.
Transports 111.
And listen to this on the NASDAQ, 1,400 up, 2800 down.
And you ready for this on the NASDAQ?
Only 50 new highs, 244 new lows.
but we also know we look at the new highs on the NASDAQ, there really isn't 50.
Because as I look, I know I'm going to find some of that crap SPACs crop, crap.
Yeah, the crap spacks.
And I can tell you that the Treasury 30-year bond is at a yearly high and that's on the NASDAQ.
So let's see.
If I look at the NASDAX here, let's see how many highs I can find.
Mondaliza food stock one.
AstraZeneca drug stock two.
Regeneron of biotech three.
No, that's not
Oh, that's a zero sales biotech.
I'm not even going to mention that one.
I got three new yearly highs on the NASDAQ, not 50.
Activision, that's one more.
Four.
On the New York, Oracle, and full disclosure, I own a little bit.
New Yearly high, even though it's a four-letter symbol.
A Boston Scientific, Medical.
Anglo-Gold.
Gold.
McDonald's, well, that finished down today, but still close to highs.
Alamos gold, another gold, one insurance stock that's strong, progressive, Hershey's,
World Wrestling Entertainment, but that's a buyout.
Novartis, a drug company, Mondalese, again, food.
I already mentioned that one because it's in both.
And that's your new highs on the New York.
And what does that mean?
They ain't a lot of leadership, kids, and anything that is kind of leading right now is
quite the defensive. So best way I can put it, stay tuned. And if by chance, and it did not happen
today, though they were down today, if by chance I'm able to come on to this show and say to you,
they're done. And what am I mean by done? Those seven to nine names that have ridiculous
amount of influence on the indices, that can be some trouble because major influence on the
indices. And it would call into question my thoughts on the parking of money. Remember, when markets
de-risk, these big funds that have to be fully invested have to find a place. And they will go into
the most defensive, which I've already highlighted, and the most liquid name,
until they got to go after them too.
And what's been the liquid strength?
Apple, Microsoft,
Nvidia, some other biggies to a lesser extent.
And as I said to, Apple's earnings are down,
and their valuation is double what their norm has been
for the last couple of decades while their earnings are down.
and video earnings down 50% last couple of quarters
Facebook
but you got that artificial intelligence thing
which by the way we're learning about
we'll talk about it more in the next couple of weeks
let's just hope we never get into an iRobot movie situation
stay tuned kids
the dow-up 80 and advanced decline sucking today
you want to see the opposite
and man oh man they are coming after anything economically sensitive now some of the bombed-out stuff
i expect them to bounce financials insurance to a certain extent but they are in brutal drops
imagine if you had climbed up a rope at 10 12 feet and then somebody took vaseline and covered the rope
that's what the financials insurance stocks did
you know what happens right then and there
you're toast
you're down to the ground
eventually they're going to try and
climb up the rope
up next I think we've been self-explanatory
or good explanation
more on this that and the other thing
whatever else I'm Gary this is the one only investor's edge
for many men mental health challenges aren't recognized
until they've already taken a toll
Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships,
and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down.
Often without clear warning signs,
in season three of the visibility gap,
Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up,
how to spot them earlier,
and how men can access meaningful support.
Listen to the new season of the visibility gap,
a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare.
When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix.
Reach for vital proteins, collagen, and protein shaking,
with 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides.
It helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints,
and a smooth, ready-to-drink shake.
So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success.
Vital Proteins. Stay vital.
Visit VitalProtene's.com and get started.
These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration.
These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease.
By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things.
Like how family is precious.
Work can always wait.
and 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles.
Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did.
The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks.
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What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
Okay, so you know how life works with markets.
The most emails we get are on things that have made a move.
So we're getting a lot of emails on gold and silver now.
I can tell you flat out this lady.
We have not bought any, but we.
really like the look of the gold and gold miners into January, and then they just twank the heck out of them.
Twank is a bad word, meaning going down.
This move that's been going on for two and a half weeks, we have not touched.
So we're the doofuses, but not a biggie.
It's not like it's an outrageous move.
We're getting calls from people worried.
There's gold moving because of so-and-so.
Who knows?
All we can tell you is, as far as gold is concerned, man, there's a long-term, hasn't done it yet, potential breakout of a big long-term trading range, hasn't happened yet.
If it does, usually means it's got higher prices to go.
my little stupid best guess
probably want to wait for pullbacks first here
but that's a guess because when you deal with commodities
it is somewhat the guesswork but definitely trend up
the miners are underperforming
but have been playing some catch-up
and there's been a couple of movers that have gone
pretty much elevator up over the last three or four weeks like symbol
A.U. South African gold producer. And if you want, go take a look. So right here, I would hope to get
pullbacks first before entry. Can't guarantee it. What I just can tell you, the market has decidedly
gone defensive. Do not be listening to these pundits. Oh, we're in a bull market. They're full of
or they just don't do their work or their job.
And all you just got to do is go look at the KRE, which is the regional banks index,
that basically looks like the south end of a northbound jackass with diarrhea.
How to throw that last part in.
Sorry about that.
That's not a good picture.
But that's how bad it's been.
Now we're also being asked, do I think there's more shoes to drop as far as banks?
My guess is yes.
And I say that because stock prices will dictate.
Silicon Valley Bank did not go out of business because of anything except they couldn't raise any more money because their stock price crashed.
If others see stock price crashes, their stock price crash from here, that'll do the track.
And in case you don't know, there's been some sales.
First Republic Bank was saved. By the way, the stock has gone from 148 in late January. It's 13 today. And they got saved and it's 13 bucks. So I remain worried. I'm not buying any regional banks. I'm not buying the JP Morgan's either. And that's the one all the pundits saying, you just got on JP Morgan. Okay, great. And guess what? It is the stalwart. It's the one that stood tall in 08 when things were crumbling or
around everybody. But even that has gone from 144 to 127 in three weeks. A lot better than
First Republic. But as we always do, we keep a watch on everything. And I will tell you every
night we will scan about 50 banks. Takes me one minute. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. They come up
one after the other. To see, do we see any defense? What do we mean by defense? I can draw a line
under price that they refuse to go under.
Not sure I got that just yet.
But leave no doubt.
Most have stopped going down in meaningful fashion.
But leave no doubt.
That's only because they've crumbled already.
Kind of like my New York Giants against Philadelphia in the playoffs.
Happened quite quickly.
They were out of the game in the first seven minutes.
Oils, I'm agnostic here.
Big gap up.
two days ago, came down a lot yesterday. Not sure. I can tell you that there's really not any
leadership there. Some recovery may need some time. I do know if oil prices stay up here.
Right here for the next two weeks. Oil prices, gas prices will be up pretty decently. Sorry,
not my fault. And that's your run day.
Tomorrow I will be on with Varnie and Company on Fox Business Network, 10 a.m. hour, usually at the top of the hour.
Keep watching. Friday, we're off. And again, we wish everybody a happy and healthy holiday weekend. We will have the best of Gary.
To give you an idea what I'm going to be doing tonight on my scans, a lot of breakdowns.
A lot of breakout failures. And you know what air?
areas, the growth tech areas that everybody's been yelling about.
As far as the big names, the mega caps.
I don't see anything untoward yet, except probably the last couple of days.
We'll mark a ceiling for now, and we'll know in the days ahead.
Starting next, I believe, Wednesday or Thursday, bank earnings, the big ones.
The week after, we start getting everything.
and in the two weeks subsequent after the banks,
everything from A to Z that matters.
So stay tuned.
We shall be on top of it.
That all said, you have a great evening and drive carefully when you get home, do like we do.
Make sure you hug your children.
By the way, tell me a lump a couple of times, especially if you have it.
Get some exercise in.
Alcohol sucks.
Marijuana is overrated, even though our kids.
government thinks it's cool now. New York City's a big gigantic bang hit. Just go walk it right now.
Until tomorrow, always honored that you are present and listening. Have a great evening,
everybody. Thanks for joining us. Same time tomorrow. Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in
contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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