Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - MORE DETERIORATION BUT [12.30.2024]

Episode Date: December 30, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/...

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Starting point is 00:00:00 For delicious meals, you could go out to eat or spend hours in the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Starting point is 00:00:32 Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's Monday, December 30th, our last show of the year.
Starting point is 00:00:53 Because tomorrow, years eve, day. The best of Gary and the best of Gary Wednesday. We're going to be playing our bare market radio shows. Hope you had a good weekend. I did, and I didn't. I did because a lot of my family was here. I didn't because from all my traveling, I was just really under the weather,
Starting point is 00:01:19 but NyQuil and Dayquil just save the day. And I am feeling much better today. And of course, Friday, I'm flying up to the Northeast again. This is serious talk about everything. that affects you. We don't screw around here. We do markets, the economy, your job, your industry. The Morlocks in D.C., their debt, their deficits, their corruption, the election, the post-election, the new administration coming in, the New York Giants who finally played a decent game, but now no longer have the first pick in the draft. And today, a little Jimmy Carter.
Starting point is 00:02:00 But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garray.com. We'll posted on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you want to email us, just be nice because we're going to be nice back. Unless you praise Hamas. Jimmy Carter passed away at 100 years old. I believe he was married for 77 years. Rosalind Carter just passed away, I believe, a year ago.
Starting point is 00:02:28 Everybody's doing a post-mortem on his presidency, and this was good, this was bad, this was bad, this was good. I like doing comparisons every now and then. You see, instead of coming out of the presidency and influence peddling yourself to a few hundred million dollars through your foundation, like you know who and you know who, Jimmy Carter stayed in Plains, Georgia, and do you know what he did for the rest of his life? Good. And let me be clear. I had issues with him. I'm not going to bring up those issues today. No reason to. What I'm bringing up is this man spent his life doing things for others that he needed nothing from. And what do we always tell you here. especially around holiday season. If you have the ability, do something for someone, you need absolutely nothing from. That's how he spent his life.
Starting point is 00:03:50 So everybody can go around doing their post-mortem, president this, he did that, he did this wrong, he did this wrong, he did that right, he did that wrong, he did that wrong. From the day he left, that's how he spent most of his life, building homes for having, for humanity, trying to eradicate illnesses in Africa and other places. And I've never met him. Don't know him personally, but I can only speak from what I see. And the two you know who's spam Jimmy Carter-Flemynion on the post-presidency. Fortunately, the second you know who lost the presidency when she tried. That's how I measure people.
Starting point is 00:04:55 Maybe I'm a little bit different than others. Anyway, he was 100 years old, definitely infirm over the last years. But that's because he was of age. and I remember seeing him at his wife's memorial. He was bound to a wheelchair and just not really, I guess the words functioning well, but 100 years old. And we'll leave it at that. Hope you understand why.
Starting point is 00:05:35 Okay, let me be careful. I have been saying for weeks on this show, there aren't any bears out there. Nobody's bearish. And I don't mention names here. We don't take on anybody in the industry ever because we know how tough this industry is. The only person we have mentioned in years has been Kathy Wood, only because we received a thousand questions.
Starting point is 00:06:09 And we definitively have issues with the marketing of ourselves while she is massively down throughout the last few years, though she's had a good run as of recent and we wish her well. We don't want anybody to fail in this industry. I haven't had good years. It happens. But I'll tell you what, I've never had a bad bare market year. I watched and listened today. Now let me go through the downtrends in this market, the bearish phases in this market, the outright bear markets in this market. Now, Wall Street defines a bear market has to be down 20% from the highs. That's why not all of these are quote unquote Wall Street bare markets, but if something's
Starting point is 00:07:15 down 15% in the last two months, it's way down. So, rails, truckers, food, beverage, materials, the staples, semiconductors, the staples, semiconductors, most of them, retail, most of them, transports, most of them. Did I mention industrials, I think show? Solars, defense stocks, drugs, hospital. health care, managed care, farm machineries, big biotech, utilities, oil services, oil exploration, big oil, housing, home building, Brazil, excuse me, steel, copper, aluminum, gold miners, China, emerging markets, regional banks, Topped out for now are the big banks and other financials. Economically sensitive names, and you know which ones we talk about, United Rentals, Caterpillar, and all that.
Starting point is 00:08:38 They're all in downtrends. All those areas. Junk bonds topped out. Bitcoin, near-term topping out, wouldn't call that a bare market except if you have micro-strategy, which we warned you about. real estate small and midcaps just broke support areas yet i watch today and listen today to pundits say the uptrend continues and i'm thinking to myself are they full of crap or they just don't do anything and work at this and have just look at the s&p 500 and tells you but even the S&P 500 right now is topped out in your term.
Starting point is 00:09:44 So don't be listening to these people. We have mentioned the names that we watch and listen to Paul Tudor Jones. Stanley Drunken Miller, if George Soros was ever on TV, I'd be watching him. David Tepper, but even he, David Tepper, has not been right on China as it went straight up and right back down, but has a great record. and a few others we follow. We're just letting you know if you hear anybody say that the market's in an uptrend, they're full of crap. And just in case this turns into a full-fledged, which we don't think it is, but we're not sure.
Starting point is 00:10:26 We'll just be careful. We couldn't believe some of the things that were said today. We couldn't believe it. Oh, yes, we can. What we have been telling you for weeks now on this show, avoid this, avoid that, avoid this, avoid that. This topped out, this topped out. Oh, by the way, insurance stocks also.
Starting point is 00:10:54 This topped out, that topped out. This is worsening. This is deteriorating. Advance declines, three to one negative again today. New yearly lows beating, new yearly highs. Up next, we'll expound further. I'm Gary. This is the one-only investors' edge.
Starting point is 00:11:09 Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum. hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,
Starting point is 00:11:53 all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59.
Starting point is 00:12:21 That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example.
Starting point is 00:12:56 If anybody has more than 10%, you know, of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive, so we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did.
Starting point is 00:13:26 We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the the process because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
Starting point is 00:13:55 the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
Starting point is 00:14:22 And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication, we deep dive into your OTC medication, and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
Starting point is 00:14:53 a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Cashflow Crunch. OnDex, small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000. right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing,
Starting point is 00:15:17 and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. Ondek does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
Starting point is 00:15:38 You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, let me expound. Notice the big word out of your handsome and buffed toast.
Starting point is 00:16:03 By the way, I did not work out this weekend because I was just drained. You ever get like a bug and you just like, you just want to put your head under a blanket and a pillow and just lay there? I had that weekend and it sucked because my grandson was here and I could not go near him. He's back up in the Northeast now, fortunately for him because I don't want him getting sick. But we're much better today and I'm going to take one more day off tomorrow. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. So we tell a story on this show and that is the guidance through the markets. We have stated time and time again, if you're able to be able to be.
Starting point is 00:16:51 to stay out of the bare markets. You're way ahead of the game. But part of what we do is if too many areas go bearish, there's usually eventuality. And we've had moments in time, the nifty 50 back in the early 70s, where everything was going down except 50. Then you had the late 90s with the internet and the craze. And you know what happened from 2000 to 2003? And in the past few years, We've had this, you know, fang and stuff like that. But recently, we're records. We're records. As I have said to you, 10 stocks were 55% of the NASDAQ 100.
Starting point is 00:17:39 10 stocks, 55%, 90 stocks, 45%. That means you better watch those 10 stocks. Eight stocks are 36% of the S&P. Eight stocks, 36% of the S&P. That means 492 stocks are 64% of the S&P. Get this. And by the way, I'm mentioning a Twitter feed. It's Kobesey letter, K-O-B-E-I-S-I-L-E-T-T-E-R, great information.
Starting point is 00:18:23 The top 10 stocks have account. for 59% of the S&P 500's gains since October 22nd bottom of 22. By comparison, the next 10 stocks have contributed just 11% while the remaining 480 stocks have contributed 30%. It's insanity. And the question is, are we in one of those moments where everything gets sold and worsens and worsens and worsens and worsens? and a select group of stocks are held up and held up and held up and held up
Starting point is 00:19:01 because the money coming out of the institutions are selling so much and finding a haven. And the haven would be these big mega caps that are liquid as all hell. And if things go awry, they can easily sell a bunch if need be. And remember, a lot of these entities have to be almost fully invested. by their charter got to be 95% invested
Starting point is 00:19:29 so they got to move the chairs on the deck so the worry right now is and has been the narrowness because every day I'd be coming on air and saying to you 3 to 1 negative 3 to 1 negative 3 to 1 negative more new yearly lows than yearly highs how could there be new yearly
Starting point is 00:19:48 lows when the market's so much higher than the new yearly than the new yearly low for the indices It's because underneath the surface again. Emerging markets, the EFA Index, China, small and midcaps, gold miners, metals and mining, steel, copper, aluminum, silver, Brazil, housing-related, home builders, utilities, real estate, oil services, oil exploration, rails, truckers, consumer staples like food and beverage, materials, economically sensitive areas, a bunch of the semantics. semiconductors, other transports, other industrials, economically sensitive,
Starting point is 00:20:34 solar's, defense stocks, drug stocks, hospitals, other healthcare, managed care, pharmacy, other medical like medical research, big biotech. You've got to see what big biotech look like. Go look at biogen and regenerate pharmaceuticals. Restaurants, they're all in downtrends of differing levels, with some worse than others. United Rentals, one of my most important economically sensitive stocks, is it's $705. It was $900 six weeks ago. Part of that process of ick.
Starting point is 00:21:13 Yet these people are in the media, we're in uptrends. So we came into today, and last night, as I wandered off the sleep, I looked at futures, and the Dow was down 20 and the NASDAQ was up third. I'm thinking, I were good. I turned on my computer this morning, and the NASDAQ was down like 350 points on the open today, and the Dow was down 700. And I'm looking for any kind of news,
Starting point is 00:21:51 and there wasn't any news. What would cause this? And for a change, yields were also down today on a crappy purchasing manager index. So what the heck's going on? and I'm thinking to myself, here's what's going on. The market's deteriorating and got a little more deterioration today. Now, in the middle of the day, we rallied up.
Starting point is 00:22:17 In the middle of the day, the NASDAQ was only down about 110 after being down like, let's see, 400. It sank at the close to down 235. The Dow, which was, hit 42-263. was down about 718, finished down 418, was trying, it was only down about 200, but then sold off into the close. So we finished down 418, down 63 on the S&P, down 235, NASDAQ, down 275,
Starting point is 00:22:54 NASDAQ 100, down 143 transports, semiconductors down 96, I would have the said, it was a decent defense day. If we didn't get that final push to the downside in the last 10 minutes, we'll say it was still ick day. Advance declines, 15 up 27 down on New York, 15 up 27 down on the NASDAQ. Ready for this? Newly yearly lows on the New York, 174, new yearly highs. Do I have one?
Starting point is 00:23:30 NASDAQ, 140 new yearly lows. I do have 182 new yearly highs, but when I go to go. to the new yearly highs, and it's very easy for me to do very quickly. Ain't much. A bunch of non-operating companies, and you know what I found at the end? Some of the natural gas stocks were strong today because natural gas gapped up overnight. They're saying it's because it's cold out. Duh, it's winter. So you got some natural gas stock, but on the NASDAQ, jet blue, new yearly high. That's about all I got. Up next, what else?
Starting point is 00:24:12 This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Starting point is 00:25:07 Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right?
Starting point is 00:25:35 Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
Starting point is 00:26:13 In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and all of those things are not something
Starting point is 00:26:43 that generally if you have a healthy gut you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation
Starting point is 00:26:57 plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Cashflow crunch. On Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:27:35 Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by on deck or Celtic bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a cinder of a boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. I'm going to call it. Two new yearly highs on the NASDAQ.
Starting point is 00:28:17 I got JetBlue, oh, make it three. The Real, Real symbol, R-E-A-L, and Funko. F-N-K-O. That's it. That's really it. I don't mention penny stocks. On the New York, I got Comstock resources. I believe that is natural gas.
Starting point is 00:28:41 That's about it. Better of note. So we'll call it more deterioration with the proviso could have been worse as we head into the end of the year. We'll call it again more deterioration today with the proviso could have been worse. We have absolutely no idea what happens tomorrow the last day of the year. I do want you to recall they've been telling us for two weeks that the market's going to rally in the last two weeks because it's the end of year. Now the excuses, oh, will people jump in the gun? Thanks for that bit of trivia.
Starting point is 00:29:27 And by the way, I do need to mention also July 9th, a Thursday, the market will be closed to, that's the day of morning for President Jimmy Carter's passing. So we're off tomorrow, which is Wednesday, and the next Thursday, just letting you know. Next thing I want to bring up, and we're very market intensive today, we warned you about micro strategy. We've been warning you. And nothing personal, but we deem what they are doing is just leveraging and leveraging and leveraging at ever higher prices on one item, Bitcoin. And when I mean, let's discuss leverage. So in case you don't know, there's a word in my industry called margin, where you can margin up your dollars. So in case you, let's say you have 100 grand, you can pretty much margin it up to $200,000.
Starting point is 00:30:42 And you pay an interest rate on that margin. Now, if you buy $200,000 worth of stock but only have $100,000, and it goes up 10%, you're making 20% on your money minus the interest rate. That's great. The problem is, if you have 100 grand and you margin it up to 200 grand and whatever you have drops 10%, you lose 20%, your 100. turns into 80. And of course, if you're dumb enough to have your 200 grand drop 50%, that means your 200 turns into 100, that's the margin, but your 100 turns into zero. Well, I don't have the exact numbers on micro strategy, but I do know this. It's just more and more leverage. And we've been telling you that for weeks. And we've been trying to hold our tongue
Starting point is 00:31:45 on words because others are calling it a scheme where you keep leveraging by doing zero percent convertibles and why anybody would buy a zero percent convertible is beyond us as well as selling stock and we've warned you well we're just letting you know from the highs and we're not making this up Bitcoin since, let's call it November 21st, Bitcoin's flat. MicroStrategy has gone from 543 down to 300. What? How can something go from 543 to 300 that matches a Bitcoin that is flat since that day? Leverage.
Starting point is 00:32:57 And again, we don't know exactly what the leverage is. We just know what they're doing, and he keeps buying at any price. And you know what he's been saying? I'll buy it when it hits a million. I'll buy it when it hits two million. I'm saying to myself, well, what if it goes into another bare market? The last bare market for Bitcoin was down 75%. Bitcoin is hardly down off the highs.
Starting point is 00:33:27 In fact, I have it down about 86, 14% from the highs now. from the highs. Anyway, just let you know, leverage goes both ways. And in case you don't know, there's not one person that goes on the tube that talks about Bitcoin, that even have any semblance of thought that something bad could happen. I have tried to contact the Trump administration on Bitcoin to let them know to be very, very careful of pumping it in case it decides to go into one of those bare markets
Starting point is 00:34:15 of even 50%. Or in case it is that big bubble and it pops because if they get a lot of voters in the Bitcoin and they lose their arse midterm election goodbye remember people vote with their wallets in every way, shape, or form
Starting point is 00:34:46 just let you know so I needed to bring up the micro strategy thing because dang dang and by the way that came from the cobbcy letter also who by the way again
Starting point is 00:35:04 I've never met him I've seen him on TV. He's on the same shows I go on. Brilliant. Let me even put it better. He knows more things, a hundred times more things than I do on the facts that are going on in the market. That's what they do for a living.
Starting point is 00:35:25 So be careful. Mark, it's definitely under some distribution here to what extent I don't know. I also heard the words profit taking today. It's just profit taking. I got news for these people. It just ain't profit taking in the rails and truckers that are already down big
Starting point is 00:35:46 in the last two, three months. It's not profit taken in the managed care. It's not profit taking in the hospitals and in the drug stocks and in the gold miners. They're all down a lot. And solars and food and beverage and insurance and a bunch of restaurants that would just hit. We follow price and pattern. Not opinions. Remember Wall Street is a fully invested vehicle Not until it's down big will they tell you it's down big This deterioration has been going on for weeks And weeks
Starting point is 00:36:31 And am I surprised? Hell yeah But we just follow the bouncing ball And we were really hoping for a good reversal today And till about 3 o'clock and there was that shot And the sellers came in I don't think it's just year-end profit taking.
Starting point is 00:36:54 If the broad market was strong and it was down a few days, that would be another story. But as evidenced by this show and what we've been telling you, the broad market has been very, very weak and they're still selling. So be very, very, very careful. And as always, anything changes, we'll let you know. But tomorrow's the end of the year. Does it mean a lot to me? No.
Starting point is 00:37:25 Don't care about the calendar. Doesn't mean a thing to me. Now I'm hearing also the January effects coming up and got to buy small caps. Yeah, right. I've tried small caps twice in the last six months and both times I stopped out. No thanks. Too much of a tease. And that's a little bit of the market.
Starting point is 00:37:53 What we do now is we scan and scan. What's holding up best? What's bucking the trend? but they're coming to get a lot of things here to a certain extent. If things worsen, they usually touch everything to a certain extent. Up next, we'll wind it up. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.
Starting point is 00:38:52 I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we... always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Starting point is 00:39:24 Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:47 My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Kondo? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large. large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola,
Starting point is 00:40:30 who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
Starting point is 00:40:57 So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. On Deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps,
Starting point is 00:41:31 On Deck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. OnDEC delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-dac.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to.
Starting point is 00:41:57 What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. We're asked often, what are my expectations of the market of 2025?
Starting point is 00:42:44 I have none. I have no target. I have no best stocks of 2025. I have no idea what leads, what lags. I have no idea which is the next company that goes ape crap to the upside. I have no idea which heads south. I was taught long ago. We interpret the markets.
Starting point is 00:43:22 We do not predict them. Look now over the last weeks and weeks and weeks we've been able to just talk to you about, oh, we're adding this as an avoid. What was the recent one? I think it was insurance, right? Remember also the little United Health, be wary. at a yearly all-time high while all the managed care stocks are getting destroyed. And guess what was next?
Starting point is 00:43:53 United Health. That's the interpreting of the market. It's not perfect. It's not 100%. But it provides edge. Look how micro strategy is getting blown up. Let's see. 543 though, 300.
Starting point is 00:44:12 That's 543. That's about 45% drop while Bitcoin. is down mini interpreting the market. The 10-year yield skyrocketing, interpreting the market, avoid the home builders. The home builders have been squashed. If the 10-year yield starts coming down, we're going to be watching the home builders to get some legs.
Starting point is 00:44:42 How do we know this? Interpreting the markets, knowing what is interest rate sensitive versus what is not. When the market's getting hit hard, what am I always looking for? Give me those stocks that actually keep going up while the market's getting hit hard. And if not going up, just sitting, their little relative strength lines that are on my charts will keep going up and lead while the stock sits because the rest of the market's getting hit. Interpreting the markets.
Starting point is 00:45:29 Knowing if it keeps weakening, keeps narrowing, by precedent, eventually they will come after the strength. That's just how it works. What did they do in the last few days? They got Netflix. They got Tesla. And when I mean they got it, it's down about 9, 10%. That's a good little haircut.
Starting point is 00:46:07 Whether it not continues, don't know. But it's an ongoing process that we do. Interpreting the market. our hopes for the market is that the Trump administration comes through extending the tax cuts, more tax cuts, regulatory cuts, get out of the way
Starting point is 00:46:36 of the economy and let it do its thing. That's the hope. Does it equate to the market? Maybe, maybe not. Why? Because markets are expensive. How do we know this? Well, you can always value the market based on its price earnings multiple of the S&P 500.
Starting point is 00:46:58 Normalize is usually around 17, but we've had big bear markets where, I don't know if you know this, we were once down to eight times earnings. God forbid it happens again. As I said to you the other day, what if 23 to 25 turns into 17? Well, there's a big correction. That's actually a bare market.
Starting point is 00:47:19 So great things can happen. And we can still go down because the market decides to normalize. On the other end, if earnings really skyrocketed, it can take that valuation down. There's a lot of variables as we move forward. My big worry is what we are seeing now with the Trump administration. They're not even in the White House. There's infighting all over the place. over something called the H-1B, go look it up.
Starting point is 00:47:58 Unbelievable. And of course, when you let extreme idiots yap away, they're extreme. Remember what we say here. The problems are the extremes on both sides. They're the loudest voices and the biggest doofuses. So we'll see how that plays out. But the most important thing we'll do, as I already did today. scan 200 sectors, 1,500 stocks, get as good a feel as possible, and close our eyes, hold our nose and pray.
Starting point is 00:48:36 No, we've tried that, it does not work. But anyway, another day of deterioration, which I had better news, but could have been worse. That's the story of today. As we move forward into the new year, we wish you all a great new year. We are hoping you are planning out your days and your weeks and your months and your year instead of just waking up without a plan. The great success stories I have learned are people that actually have a plan for success or for better in anything they try to do.
Starting point is 00:49:20 You get out a book, a diary, you write down your notes, you treat yourself like a corporation, you treat yourself seriously, and watch what happens. I have notebooks going back years. And even at a higher age now, we're still doing it. So you have a great evening, drive carefully, have a good New Year's Eve, don't drink and drive. We'll be back on Thursday. Stay well, be well when you get home. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. and they will feel better, you'll feel better. I promise they will be well again. Peace out all.
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