Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Much Better Week In Review.

Episode Date: October 21, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A, thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is, it is, it is Friday, October 21st, 2020. First off, thank you all. My father's 91st birthday yesterday. We had over a thousand, over a thousand people tweeted to me or retweeted or liked or whatever it's called on Twitter or emailed. Congratulations, we really, really, really appreciate you and appreciate the gesture.

As we know your time is valuable and limited and you took the time out. so again we really really really are grateful tomorrow I'm flying on something called silver airways just letting you know it's a they're out I don't know where they're out of but they fly from Orlando I'm flying to

Pensacola Florida tomorrow I'm going to a wedding in Destin Florida and I had no idea because we were going to drive but it's like eight to nine hour drive so we're going to fly and then drive an hour and a half uh to it so silver airways and it's a propeller anyway silver airways be good anyway i really never know what i'm going to talk about when i get on this show when i go on fox news or fox business we just have an understanding of topic.

But quite often, we're about to talk about a topic and just out of nowhere, the anchor will change. Like today. I was on twice with the best in the business, one of my great inspirations, Neil Cavuto. And I was on the first,

and then we did a second one. And just, so you never know. And in case you don't know this show, you're new to it. We used to be a show about the market and the market and the market. But then we had to change and add to what are they doing that's going to affect the market. And there's been no greater example than what we predicted perfectly was going to happen based on what they were doing. And when we use they, we're talking about them. The Morlocks.

You can go look up Morlocks, by the way, that never had I ever thought that they would actually buy. up the fricking market with conjured up money. Never. Years ago, never would I think that since the year 2000, our debt's gone up like $25 trillion. Never did I think they would interfere and interlope on free markets and your life and my life in ways unimaginable. And one's worse than the other. And as you know, our big pet peeve before anybody else. Nobody was even talking about. They were complimenting him. While everybody was complimenting Jay Powell, I was ripping the stuffings out of him on this show and on TV, and they looked at me like I was nuts.

Why? Markets were going up. But I have news for you. If I was a central banker today, I can make the Dow go from 31,000 to 50,000 in a month. I'll just print $30 trillion. But no, he printed $9 trillion. But after the Dow would go up to $50,000, it would crash again, why? It's called reality.

It's called valuations matter. It's called free markets. So as you know for the last year, you've seen what we've seen. This is an outcome of one man's whims with a bunch of lemmings that followed him. and you know what's happened. He doesn't get the blame on inflation because he's not an elected official. There's no agenda there.

Well, I'm not going to go after him. I'm just going to go after who's ever in power. But it's on this Jay Powell caused the inflation. Of course, helped by the maniacs in D.C. And I'm getting to a point here. Joe Biden has voted for $30.5 trillion of our debt at a 31. He's been there that long.

Nothing personal. He's the biggest bull crap artist that's ever been in the White House, and that is saying a lot. You know what I mean by that, right? I watched him today lie his arse off on anything and everything, making things up out of thin air, him knowing he is lying, him knowing we know he's lying, but they don't care. Because he also knows he's got the tank. You know what the tank is, right? If the righty saw a righty lie or do something criminal, they'd say nothing.

If the lefty saw a lefty lie or do something criminal, they say nothing. But if the righty saw a lefty do the same, they scream bloody murder. If the lefty saw a righty do the same, they scream bloody murder. That's the tank. We're not in anybody's tank. So he went out there today. Remember, this is the guy who is guilty of 30 and a half of a 31 trillion of debt. Yes, we know.

He's not the only one. But he's been there that whole time. He lied about the debt and deficits today. Saying he's lowered him like crazy. It's a lie. Blatent, blatant, blatant, blatant, blatant lie. The deficits were gargantuan because of COVID. And once that spending went away, that's not lowering the deficit.

That's just get rid of the big spending. Guess what the deficit this year is? A record $1.4 trillion this year. A record $1.4 trillion this year. That's a record without COVID. He's a liar. He lied about inflation again. I don't even need to go into that anymore, right?

Do I? For six to seven months, he was saying, the inflation you're seeing is transitory, and then he blames it seven months later on Putin after Putin invades. And I watch today, and I'm thinking to myself, man, this guy is just another piece of crap politician, amateurist politician, trying to con the American people. And thank goodness we do our homework,

and thank goodness a lot of you do your homework. because it was blatant today. Blatent. And on top of that, we've already told you that he says these cut child poverty in half. Blatent lie. You don't take a child out of poverty because you gave him a check. That's what he says. A tax credit.

A tax credit took a child out of poverty. Which, by the way, is a sin to make that statement. So we just want to let you know. They continue to work against us. They continue to castrate the taxpayer. They continue to put us in Moorhock. They continue to lie. 1.4 trillion deficit this year.

And this guy is taking a victory lap today. A record deficit year. And he's taking a victory lap. No shame at all. And with the big smile. on his face with the pearly whites with his advisor standing behind them I'm sure quite constipated knowing that what he's saying but they have no choice so we just want to let you know regardless what we tell you about the markets which we thought last

week putting a low and may have confirmed it today these people are just working against us up next market wrap good day we'll explain this is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

We'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital Matter. management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium

benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital 1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused

relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. So whatever I say to you on the market, we say it to you bluntly. We say it to you knowing there's so many moving parts. We say it to you when wrong, we are wrong fast, and we are wrong small, but when we say it to you,

there's usually a darn good rhyme and a reason for it. We want you to remember that. So, to preface that, during this bare market, which, by the way, we started worrying in February of 21 when all the bubbles were popping.

Then in the midst of 21, a lot of growth stocks, past leader, started topping. And then November, all of them topped. And then December, the indices topped. We called it out for you on all of them. We also told you one of our major rules back then, that in bare markets, past leaders on average, will drop 70%. I know that's unbelievable. and when we were first told it, we didn't believe it. We were told it by the great, the icon, William O'Neill, at one of his workshops in California.

And then we did our own studies and we said, holy crap, this guy is right. And now we're in the year 2002. And do you know what's happened in the last year? A crap load of stocks down 70% or more. Some of the most popular, well-known names like the PayPal's and the squares and the Facebooks and the Netflix. We still don't believe Facebook changed their name to meta platforms. What idiots. And Nvidia!

And the list goes on and on and on and on and on. And during the bare market, we also called out to you when we thought the market hit a wall on the downside. What does that mean? well we're pretty good at this we're pretty good at interpreting identifying marks one of those identifying marks

no it's not people going on TV and saying oh it's the bottom one of the identifying marks is being able to interpret after a drop sellers getting washed out at the time. And what that simply means we're able to really get a feel after a drop that the late sellers, the ones that finally gave up at the end of a drop, got washed out. We recognize it in a

couple of ways, but really one of the most important ways is that you're dropping, you're dropping, you're dropping, you're dropping, and then you're dropping again during the day and you're down big and then you finish up on the day. We call that a washout. It does not mean market's just going to lift off. It just usually means sellers have taken a powder and normally we use the words, you get some upside testing. And sometimes it lasts a few days, sometimes weeks, sometimes a couple of months. But that's about it in a bare market. If you're starting a new bull market, you know, it happens. You never revisit and it just keeps building and building. building and building and building and building and building

and more and more names show up leadership shows up the stair steps are going up and it's two steps up one step down instead of one step up two steps down so we saw one of those really good washouts starting in January it happened and you can go look on the 24th and we rallied up for about I don't know, a couple of weeks, before we headed back down. And then we got another one of these big washouts on February 24th. But that one was a little bit different.

It had to go through some retesting. Went up a little bit, came down, never broke those lows, though. And then rallied up for three weeks in the bare market. And then we got trashed again in the bare market. And then we made another call on May 20th. Just another washout of unknown price in time. And no, we never set in any of these bare market bottom. But you never know, you get hopeful.

That lasted a few days, sat around, got crushed again, and then led to the better summer rally. And we recognized that we thought on June 17th something was up. And then we gapped up the next day coming back on June 21st. And we thought a low was being put in. Market went up, but sat around for a little bit. Never broke those lows. And then on July 15th, we said to you, we think those lows.

those lows got confirmed. And what do we mean by confirmed? Well, William O'Neill has this thing called a follow-through day. It just means that you confirm, we're just not getting too deep and you can go look it up, confirms the low to get some more upside. Doesn't mean it's a new bull market, but quite often you can make some hay on that.

And it just so happened, we rallied up, from July 15th to August 16th, it was a pretty good rally. And then the market got trashed again, and we identified the top again on August 22nd. So we've had a bunch of these, but went to New Yearly Lows again as of last Thursday. Last Thursday, we said to you, we thought that was another good washout day. What was that day? Well, we had dropped 5,000 some odd points in the Dow in two months. 30 some odd hundred points on the Dow in just a month.

And at the lower that day, we were down 5,600 points on the Dow in two months, and 3,800. And then we reversed 1,500 points that day. A washout. Up next, we'll take you to today. and our thoughts. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you

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The Capital One Venture X card, What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It's highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So last Thursday, you had this unbelievable day where we were again heading down. And it was just like two hours, by the way. In like two hours we reversed. Let me pull that up. I think I can be able to pull that up. Let me throw the Dow in here.

The Dow went from 28660 to 29-927 by noon. So we had that big reversal day. And we pretty much sat around for a few days afterwards with a lot of warts. because I got to tell you during this time with interest rates going higher, utilities, housing, housing-related, retail. The list goes on and on. Just look like crap.

We ended up with a bunch of new yearly lows. But, just like the other washouts in the near term, price was never taken out. to the downside, which leads me to yesterday because we were up strong and we finished crappy because of another big moving rates. But with the big moving rates, the even more highs, the lows of last week weren't taken out, and the market really wasn't down a lot on that. I wrote myself the little question, what if rate starts to perform?

Isn't the market going to make a move? Well, interesting enough today, the 30 year, the longer bond was up today a lot, the 4.305. That's not good. The 10 year was up a stick early, but it finished down only 0.13. Went from 4226 to 4213. Guess what the market did on just that? had a big day today. I'm going to measure my words carefully. There is a decent chance we have what we call another confirmation day of the recent low, which simply means in addition to when we had

that low last Thursday, when we say that low is not going to be taken out any time soon. A confirmation Day could, and we say this knowing the central banks don't shut up, and when I mean don't shut up, they don't show up. We say this knowing that all the big guys report earnings this week, you know, the biggies. We say that knowing, interest rates are fluid. We say that knowing, I mean, there's warnings from Russia on nuclear. And of course, that could change the playing field. today finished what we interpret as a confirmation day and now we'll see if we can get some more juice out of it and to give you an understanding the S&P closed today at 3754

the 50-day moving average is 3886 let's see if we can get there remember price always reverts back to that eventually and we think maybe that's what's going on here. The Dow was stronger than the S&P. The Dow was almost at the 50 day already. But just keep in mind the Dow is just 30 names and can get skewed by a few good names, especially the higher price names.

So that's the story. We'll call it a confirmation of it. And as we always say, when wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong. small. You know when we'll know we're wrong? If today's low gets taken out in earnest, not only a couple of percent away. That'll tell us. Even more wrong, if October 14th get taken out. That's the day after that reversal day. And of course, if the reversal day gets taken out, forget about it. But good day. What else did I see happen today that? That

felt a little bit better. There was some oomph today. What the hell is umph? O-O-O-O-O-M-P-H. Just felt like the market had some oomph today. Stickiness. I don't think we've experienced a lot of that, even in the rallies during this bear market.

Unf. As I did scans, just felt a little bit better than other rink. rallies and I'll do big weekend scan this week and we'll see what we can take from it. So just letting you know last Thursday we declared a washout day after fencing around for a few days and wild swings and gaps and reversals, I think probably got a confirmation day today. And I'm not even talking O'Neill in the fall through. I'm just talking about what I see. So today's market wrap brought to you by investment dash models.com.

That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Dow up 748. And again, it's only up 2% in change, but it's a good 2% in change. S&P up 863, NASDAQ 244, NASDAQ 100, 263, the semiconductor is 83, and let me state for the record, So many stocks still look like crap.

Most everything's in bare markets, but rallying now. And we'll see what decides to take us. Other things we like, well, it seems like the financials and semis are finally got some relative strength in here. And there's just no way markets going up if that doesn't occur. So we're seeing some of that. A few new highs showing up. a Netflix up 21 today after gaping up that's good to see

some oil stocks at new yearly highs saw some sectors light up like a pinball machine today some steel names some I don't need to go that much in depth it's just a very very good day the one area that wasn't so great is the high beta bombed out software types though they came off the lows when the market got some

caching towards the end of the day. And this happened with yields on the 30 year up markedly and yields on the 10 year only down a smidge. Which begs the question, what if yields really come down? Now, I do have to let you know the Fed leaked to the Wall Street Journal.

They leaked this, by the way. Nothing by accident that yeah, we're going to raise rates more, but we can talk about slowing down the raising rates. I don't know if that did it, got the market going. I think it's more of we drop 5,600 points in the Dow in two months, and 3,800 points in the Dow in one month, and you get rallies.

But whatever the reason, very good day. I'm just going to give you some sectors of note that have the relative strength? Managed care. Some insurance names. Manage care is HMOs. Defense names, because everybody loves a good war.

I think Northrop Grumman may be in new yearly highs. NOC. Yep. Earnings suck, but just letting you know. But sector-wise, not much else. Insurance stocks, a few, I mentioned. But sector-wise, not a lot of leadership. Oils. A few oils are at highs or setting up to, but there are plenty oils that act like

crap also. So mix bag, but good day. And what we'll do each and every day with you? We'll let you know. If anything changes, we'll let you know. A change today, I would suggest. Got a confirmation today. If I was back against the wall, do I think it's the end of the bare market? You ready? Don't know. Up next. This, that and the other thing and whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in

your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. Okay, dokey.

So let me just say from the outset again, And I feel like I've got to say this. I take no joy and ripping on the people running this country. I wish I can come on here and sing their praisers. But they suck. And they're liars. And they're disrespectful of you, each and every one of us on our tax dollars. They have mortgaged our future, our kids' futures, their kids.

And the guy running the joint now. has voted for 30 and a half of our 31 trillion. Yet he has the grapefruits to go up in front of the camera and talk about how great he is with the debt and deficits. I can come up with so many sarcastic comparisons and analogies to that, but I'm not. I want to take it serious. It's an utter joke. It's an utter joke that he can get up there and start patting himself on the the back when there's going to be a $1.4 trillion deficit this year. You know what that means?

They spent $1.4 trillion more than they're taken in and they've taken in record amounts. Do you know how frustrating that is? Complete and utter frustration. I'm looking for anybody, any hero, to show up and unwind this bull crap. that if they are foisted upon us and laugh at us, we're nothing more than a means to their ends. They ain't working for us. They're working for themselves. We're working for them.

Their corrupt is all hell. There was some study that came out about how many people in D.C. We're trading on inside information in the last three years. thousands of trades at opportune times on legislation they were voting for and nobody does anything or says squat and whenever there's an investigation on them they're doing the investigating how would you like to be a bank robber and you be the prosecuting attorney and the judge for your own trial that's what goes on there so again I take absolutely no joy at all in taking them down. And remember, we don't opinionate.

We give you facts. Simple facts. We don't have to give opinions and just give out numbers. The Inflation Reduction Act. They've already sent out a bunch of minions to tell us, well, it's not going to reduce inflation for some years. You know what that's telling you? Well, we lied our asses off and tough crap. They grub at us again.

You know what Gruber is? Go look up Jonathan Gruber video, one of the architects of Obamacare, who had no problem saying after the fact, we had a lie to the American public to get Obamacare passed. And the reason why we were able to get away with it is because Americans are stupid. Go look up the video. Do you think that got any press? think about that

the architect of Obamacare has come out and said Barack Obama the great almighty Barack Obama lied to the American public about Obamacare in order to get it passed and the reason they were able to get it passed is because Americans are stupid

go look at the video it's up they never took it down and nobody cares don't worry that they told us your premiums would go down, even though we're going to take care of millions of others, and also handle pre-existing conditions, which flies in the face. How's your premium since Obamacare? I know what it's like,

because I know what mine are. They've skyrocketed. They lied. Joe Biden's now lying, on top of the last guy. And that's how you get a ton of inflation. Bubbles. Bubbles. Bubbles. popping, more debt, more deficits, and maniacs. And I'd say it to their face, maniacs at the central banks, egomaniacs at the central banks. They don't shut up. Imagine if you went zero for 100 on your predictions and you keep predicting. My tail would be between my legs. On the week, just remember, we gapped up on Monday. We're up 4.8% on the day. We're up 4.8% on the now, NASDAQ, 5.2%, S&P 500, 4.75%, good week. Still way down in the bear market.

And the average stock, forget about it. But to be repetitive, we think a good chance we add some sort of confirming day-to-day and we'll see what comes of it. odds favor get some more upside testing how long how far don't know we really don't need to know we'll let everybody else tell you oh at the end of the year it's going to be so-and-so if we keep getting two steps up one step back good that change is bad if we get to see some leadership good if none show up bad if the new yearly high list starts picking up good if none show up bad if distribution rears its ugly head bad if it doesn't good

our job interpret on a daily basis the roadmap hopefully today meant something that all said you have a great weekend you all drive carefully when you get home to like we do it is pretty quite simple

keep your fingers crossed for the giants make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children, they will feel better, you will feel better, I promise. And until Monday, thanks for the kind words from my father, and thanks for joining us. Peace out, all. Take care. Have a great weekend. Bye, bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com. That's Garykk.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited

double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.