Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Mushy week in review [06.21.2024]
Episode Date: June 21, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday. It's, I think,
the 21st of June, 2024. Hope you having a good day. Want to thank Adam for
doing the show, I believe. Let's see, Adam did the show yesterday and Tuesday, I believe,
and we were off on Wednesday. Yeah, I think I got that right. Anyway, we thank them very much,
much appreciated. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. And when we say that,
we mean it as we head into next week's debate between the Ebola virus and the bubonic plague.
and by the way, we don't say that sarcastically.
And into the election, we will cover everything without any agenda, any ulterior motive, any bias.
We have lost all love where in nobody's tank.
35 trillion of debt defines that as well as all kinds of other stuff that we have gone over here.
But that'll be for another moment in time.
and if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com,
or also post it on our Twitter feed,
which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should.
And if you'd like to email us, go ahead, just be nice.
You know what the best part of my day was today?
I had to start out with this.
I just got off the phone with my father,
and in case you don't know, he will be 93 on October 20th.
My father, 93.
And he is, how do I put this?
Self-sufficient, but he's had his moments and problems.
You know, when you're that age, he's fallen a few times that.
But he has all his faculties completely.
And I brought up to him Willie Mays.
And in case you don't know, Willie Mays, wasn't always as
been my baseball idol. When I was a kid, the mornings went like this. Run outside at the doors,
the Miami Herald, pull out the sports page, and look what Willie Mays did. That's what the story was.
And the reason was he was playing for the San Francisco Giants, so the games ended late, so we never
knew until the morning. I was a big Willie Mays fan, big time. So I bring it up to my father
about Willie Mays. He goes, let me tell you about Willie Mays. And do you know what he did in the
next 15 minutes? He told me that, number one, he remembered Willie May's first home run. He watched
it. Number two, he started telling me the whole story.
starting lineup before Willie Mays went to the San Francisco Giants. He went to the first base,
second base. I go, wait a minute, you just went through the whole team, the reliever.
My father at 92 years old was able to tell me the whole team, from I don't even know what year
that was. Amazing. I was in my car, listened to him with the biggest smile on my face.
I didn't even know how to react.
Anyway, that's how good my day was today.
Just that.
Doesn't matter what else happened during the day.
That was big stuff, if you ask me, for me.
Anyway, good day.
We segue.
Let me read a couple things to you.
And then we'll get into markets.
So we've been telling you for months on this show before anybody else,
that Joe Biden is running deficits this year in the range of $2 trillion plus.
While everybody is on telling you one, one and a half, which still sucks.
The Congressional Budget Office, which is never right,
just raised the estimate for the deficit this year from $1.5 to $1.9 trillion, a sin.
But then they said, but when you go through the fact they're moving some payments, it's really $2 trillion.
So all of a sudden the Congressional Budget Office is catching up to us.
And just so you know, if the Congressional Budget Office says $2 trillion, make it $2.5.
I'm not done.
the Congressional Budget Office just came out and warned about the next 10 years
where the hell they've been for the last 10 years while we've been warning
they say our debt is going to go from 35 trillion
and in 10 years be 56 trillion
you know what Gary says
I give it six years and do you know why
Because we haven't had a downturn in the economy.
I'm guaranteeing you a downturn in the economy going forward.
I'm guaranteeing it.
And you know what happens when they get a downturn?
The revenue they get from us, we the people, goes down markedly.
But they still spending.
I can't even say like drunken sailors because drunken sailors fall asleep.
And as we have told you, and we pull no punches on it.
We do not know when.
We don't know what number.
But there will be a day where the bond market wakes up and says,
holy you know what.
And yields will no longer be looking at inflation,
but they will be looking at what.
Bush, Obama,
Trump and Biden have done with every politician underneath them.
The compassionate conservative Bush.
The moderate Obama.
The conservative Donald Trump.
And the moderate Joe Biden, which leads me to Janet Yellen.
My good friend Neil Cavuto interviewed her yesterday.
And Neil is a class act.
And Neil will do interviews.
in a way where they should be done
above a level.
I could not do an interview with Janet Yellen
without raking her over the coals.
I would not give her a chance to spew her BS,
but I'll tell you what we did find out
about Janet Yellen and Joe Biden.
And it's just what I told you.
the great financial con, the biggest one in history,
is what they are doing with the raising of the government size, scope, reach, and spending,
and then coming after you.
And that's what will happen if they win the election and get the House and Senate.
At this point, I don't give a crap who wins the White House,
because you know what I think of both.
but whoever wins
let's hope for gridlock
let's hope for gridlock
let's hope for gridlock
I'm going to take that back
if Trump wins
I won't mind the Republicans
have in the House of Senate because I do know
that he will extend the tax cuts
and I'm pretty damn sure he will do something on the border
but Biden
he's already proposed
posed the most moronic tax proposals in our history.
Unrealized capital gains tax on things you don't sell.
Long-term capital gains from 20 to 44 percent.
A wealth tax.
The man is insane.
He is a Marxist socialist control freak.
I'd say it to his face.
I would just say President Biden, nothing personal, but you're a socialist-Marxist control freak on the economy.
Anyway, Janet Yellen went through the interview.
I almost threw up.
Well, actually, I didn't, but you get the imagery on having to listen to our Treasury Secretary that does not give a crap about our treasure.
the defender of our treasure
only interested
in the growth of government
and the confiscation of wealth
up next
we'll finish it off
I'm Gary this is the one only Investors Edge
Hi I'm Gary Kalbaum
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It's time to switch on the integrator units
and get the brain cells working.
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Hey, this promises to be fun.
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It doesn't get better than this.
Now,
I'll finish it up with the problem with Trump is he does not care about the debt and deficits in size of government either.
He proved it for four years.
I still remember and I came on this show while he was running for president saying I applaud him.
I applaud Donald Trump because he is out there saying he knows how to cut the debt.
He knows how to cut the deficit.
it'll be easy as all heck and he has done all kinds of deals in his lifetime and he's going to
come in and boom and immediately came in and race spending like a democrat so my expectations on
that is zero point zero is john vernon sent out in animal house zero point zero so both of these
Schmageggies will do nothing on the debt and deficit, guaranteeing the day of comeuppance.
The good news is, listen carefully, the market will top out in advance of that, and we'll be ready for that, the day of comeuppance.
And how it's going to happen is that yields are just going to spike.
cost the capital is going to spike
and then who knows
Janet Yellen was quoted saying
I'm comfortable with the
numbers on the debt and deficits
you know what I would say to her
nothing personal
Ms. Yellen
are you smoking crack
$1 trillion
is going towards interest
a trillion a year is being wasted
on interest because of all this
that you're applauding?
What the hell is a matter with you,
and how can you call yourself the Treasury Secretary?
Fire yourself.
Get lost.
Anyway, that's what I was watching in the last couple of days.
The Congressional Budget Office is now warning us
about $56 trillion in 10 years,
but that's so much bill crap.
It's going to be 70 in 10 years.
But don't worry.
It's the percentage.
Just remember something.
They keep abusing us.
We keep growing the economy.
The government doesn't grow squat.
The government is a Hoover vacuum.
Sucking our hardering dollars.
And I love when they say tax cuts, they cost.
No, they don't.
It's our money.
We make it.
Government doesn't give us anything.
We give it to them.
It's such a con when they say that.
and they're very good at it.
Oh, and Janet Yellen said the two words fair share twice in the interview.
I'll give a fair share.
Okay, we're done with that, but we just had to do that because the Congressional Budget Office is always behind,
always catching up to what we've been telling you, and now they're finally, oh, my goodness gracious.
Oh, my gosh.
Oh, wow.
And just remember, when the Republicans, I saw one of them today,
was all worried about the spending.
He's signed off on everything for the last 20 years.
Not going to mention who doesn't matter.
All right.
I don't even know where to start because I haven't done the show in a couple of days.
But a few things are sticking out.
Some sore thumbs.
Number one.
More than likely yesterday,
the move in the semiconductor's AI
hit a moment in time.
And what we mean by that is,
Nvidia, off its gap on earnings,
went up almost 40% to the open yesterday
and had another reversal like it did on March 8th
and that took it into a new paradigm of trading.
And what that means is,
time and price of backing and filling
and working off the near-term excess
and it also occurred in other names also.
So that's number one that I wanted to mention.
Doesn't mean the end of the world.
Just remember that happened in March,
and Viti's high was $9740, $974 pre-split.
It now topped out at 140.
It's pulled back already about 9% in two days.
that is what is known as too far too fast and finally hit a number and we'll stay on top of it for you each and every day
but we think probably in here it's going to do some time and price and that goes for others
that have gone kind of sort of vertical and what we mean by vertical is just get a chart
and draw a line almost straight up for some of these names
that's all
and it doesn't mean they're not going to double and triple from here
you just what we're able to do is
see characteristics
of exhaustion
too far too fast
and we'll see what next week brings
next week we're getting towards the end of the quarter
and then to July
and third week of July we'll start earnings again
some good news is
The bond market is quieted down, and that's good news, stabilized.
And if I'm Jay Powell, I just don't do anything.
Why?
Because things are stable.
He doesn't have to raise rates.
He doesn't have to lower rates.
Just hang out.
So that's good news.
We're down at four and a quarter on the 10-year.
Was as high as five back last November.
Was his high at 4.73, a matter of about seven, eight weeks ago.
So this is good news.
Oil prices have been ticking up though, and that's something to watch.
In fact, the spot price is up like 14% in the last 10 days.
What else?
Gold and silver, not much happening right now.
Gold has gone into about 10-11 week range-bound.
Silver, about the same.
Had a good day yesterday, a crappy day-to-day, non-descript.
Got to do that.
The new yearly highs versus new yearly lows, the best way I can explain it to,
there are triple the new yearly lows on the NASDAQ, the new yearly highs,
which is stunning, considered the move in the NASDAQ,
which tells you exactly what we have been telling you.
That is narrow as all heck, big time narrow.
Europe. Europe's been weakening.
People blaming on elections, this, that.
We've been questioning.
They're telling us, like the UK's in recession, how is the market going up?
But it's not going up anymore.
To be watched.
Asia, well, that's my music.
Up next, we'll do Asia.
Rest of the market.
Thanks for being here.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
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This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
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What's in your wallet?
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This episode is brought to you by Spreker.
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He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
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Let's continue wrapping Asia.
I've got to tell you, it was the third week in April.
Well, actually the second week in April where we said Asia looked like it's turning up.
And then we said, boy, it's really starting to ascend.
And I got to tell you, for nine days, ascended very well, but since, crap.
And what I'm using for you is the exchange.
traded funds, the FXI, the KWEB.
But then you go underneath the surface, there's individual stock names.
And all I can tell you, the two big names, Alibaba, just croaked.
By-do, double-croat into new yearly lows.
So it's going to be tough for them to get going.
So foreign markets are not a tail win right now for us.
Thus, there's been a little bit of next, as we have told you, underneath the surface,
just not even close to the big indices.
The Russell 2000, nothing.
The transports, the best thing I can tell you is maybe they're trying to hit a low here near term,
but they have been weak as can be.
Other areas, commodities, very weak.
oils very weak
even though oil prices have come up
getting a little bit
of if enous
in some of the big banks
city group below the 50 day
for starters
Wells Fargo below the 50 day
anything below the 50 day loses
the ascension as we call it
moving on
Game Stop
Down another
Buck 66 today
The 2399
Was $48
When that ass clown
Roaring Kitty
Decided to be a double
ass clown
And do that
streaming
To show he is an ass clown
And all his followers
What did I do?
Why the heck did I
It's gone from
down 50% from the streaming.
And as I have said to you, and as we always tell you, when we take some people on like this,
we tell you we'd take it straight, we would say it straight to their face.
He bought, he knew he had influence, posted videos, got people riled up.
Somehow the stock went to 65 bucks in a couple of days, right back down to 1840.
days later, screwing everybody.
When that happened, oops,
oh, I'm going to announce some streaming,
you know, come join me.
They ramped it back up to 48,
back to 24, and just remember,
this thing was $10
before this jackass
started things up again.
And let me repeat, I don't care
what he's worth, I don't
care what he looks like, though he look
like a jackass.
I don't care how he sounds,
Though we sounded like a jackass, be careful.
Just be careful.
On that streaming was a running commentary from people,
and there were some people on there,
if they would tell him the truth,
we'll losing their arses.
Some people crying, begging him,
and begging others, join in and get this stock back up.
That's not how market's supposed to work.
And of course, at the same time, GameStop announced lower numbers,
bigger losses and monstrous and I mean monstrous secondary offerings to dilute their own shares
and as we always tell you to finish up this part I have no clue whether they're going to be
running be able to run it again or not if you're neck deep in it I hope they do run it again
and I mean that I hate seeing anyone lose money like
this. The markets are tough enough. Do not make them tougher. In the intervening days,
off of my commentary on Trump stock, well, this week it's gone from 35 to 27. We just want to
repeat, nothing political. We've done it with dozens of stocks throughout the years that we thought
were extreme in valuation. Rivian, beyond meat, the SPACs. We just want to repeat again.
We're not telling you where the stock is going. We're telling you the exact valuations.
176 million shares outstanding. At a dollar, that would give it a 176 million dollar market cap
with less than $4 million in sales and lose a ton of money
and sales down 30% year over year.
And now they're all so worried at the Trump thing,
oh, we're going to go after the short sellers.
Well, you can't because it's completely legal.
And no, we haven't shorted it.
And I don't even know if he can borrow stock.
So we're just telling you valuation.
Is it going there?
We don't know.
Is it going lower?
We don't know.
We just know ultimately everything goes to where it should be valued.
If they start growing the business, it's one thing.
I do believe the Trump name is worth how much I don't know.
That will let the market decide.
But back on point, whether it's Trump or Rivian or Beyond Meat,
or no sales biotex, or GameStop, or AMC,
which by the way just went from 1188 to 455 and it's still ridiculously priced.
You got to know when you're given somebody a $20 bill and you're getting back five.
And sometimes you're getting back one.
And all you have to do is go look how many shares outstanding versus the sales.
That's for starters.
Then go look at the earnings.
It'll give you everything you need to know and what we just want you to notice,
we mostly are doing the extremes that we tell you we worry about.
And unfortunately, there's a lot of no sales biotex that have been foisted upon an unwary public
that are touted to you.
And admittedly, there's been a few that have been bought out amazingly.
Heck, I have seen no sales biotex bought out for $3 and $4 billion because a big pharmaceutical
thinks, well, whatever they are in trials for is going to be huge for them. God bless them.
It's the ones where the placebo does better than the drug in phase two trials and the stock
drops 70% overnight that we are worried about. So we just wanted to bring this up because,
man, oh man, it is amazing the amount of emails we get on GameStop still. And we don't ask
whether you own, whether the people
own it or not, but there's still this big
interest. And I'm thinking
to myself, this
thing came from under 10.
It's 24. And I'm
still getting, what do you think?
And of course I say, I don't know.
But
ultimately,
that's what we always use, the term,
that little word, ultimately,
eventually,
you know what happened the last time,
90%.
AMC 99%.
When the music stops
and if anything else shows up like that
we're going to tell you.
And always say it's your money,
you get to decide.
The rest of the market.
Well, the Dow's picked up a little
but has now done nothing since February
and is the lagger.
The NASDAQ's pulling back.
If you look at the NASDAQ advanced decline
line versus the NASDAQ, it is stunning.
That's going to be a reckoning one day.
We'll explain that up next and more.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
It's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are 3,000.
thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com
today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy
John comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture
X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you
expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer
to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple.
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Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
By the way, Bernie Sanders put out a note today.
He wants to go after excess profits.
Don't you just love...
Marxist control freaks.
We need a 95% windfall tax on excess profits of large corporations.
This Yutz has never had a freaking job, and he hates success.
He hates people that are successful.
You're all the antichrist, because Marxists hate people they can't control.
That's what it's all about.
a windfall tax on
what is an excess profits
of large corporation
oh they're making too much
you mean the company so damn good
creating wealth
and jobs
it's excessive
what would I say to Bernie Sanders
if I ever met him face to face
nothing personal Bernie
go screw
I hate using
hyperbolic words
but he's economically evil.
Economically evil.
Notice I didn't say personally.
Economically evil.
If you were moving up in life, working your tail off,
he will take a machete out and cut you off at the knees
like he will stomp on your head.
How dare you?
He's economically evil, and so are the rest of him.
and all these economically evil adults are destroying countries.
Somehow they were able to run countries.
Venezuela, dead, Cuba, dead.
Argentina turning up to the good as they elected a Ronald Reagan slash Margaret Thatcher,
a we the people guy running Argentina.
Low taxes, less regulations, smaller government, getting out of the way, and things are thriving there.
35 trillion bucks of debt here.
Masking the problems we're going to have in the future member, just cutting another credit card with a higher credit limit to pay for the last one.
the greatest financial scheme in our history brought to you by Joe Biden.
And that I got to tell you again, and this may, I really wish my trajectory was different.
I'd be running for president.
I'd be up against Biden.
And I would ruin him in a debate.
His teeth would fall out.
His face would go ashen.
He turned into Ralph Cramden with a hundred.
Hamana, homina, homina.
He wouldn't even know it hit him.
And if CNN tried to bag me with stupid,
I'd have them lying on the ground.
They wouldn't even know it hit him.
They're all in the tank.
Everything's government this.
Everything's government that.
I saw some leftist idiots saying tax cuts cost the government.
but they don't say
they don't say relieving somebody's loans doesn't
because they love Marxism, socialism,
control freakism,
versus people keeping more of their hardering dollars.
Do you know they're actually pissed off
that Trump proposed
waiters and waitresses,
not paying taxes?
It's a cost to the government.
So people keeping their earned dollars more of it is a cost to the government, but no, relieving somebody's loan isn't.
They're all sick in the mind.
I don't know where the media turned into one flew over the cuckoo's nest, but boy, oh boy, they all forgot.
160 million of us going to work every day.
that funds government.
They don't fund us.
They're nothing.
They've destroyed Social Security.
They've destroyed Medicare.
They admit it's gone bankrupt and still do nothing about it.
And if anybody wants to do something about it, oh, you're throwing grandma off the roof.
It's one big giant laugh.
But back what I was talking about, the NASDAQ has gone from, take your little watch and go from 8 o'clock to 10 o'clock.
I take it back.
8 o'clock to 2 o'clock.
Just draw that line.
Bottom left, top right.
That's the NASDAQ, the index.
Now draw a line top left to bottom right.
That's the NASDAQ advanced declines.
Basically what that line is, you add up every day the advance declines and you plot them.
And basically what it tells you is something very simple.
Apple, Microsoft.
Google, Facebook, Netflix,
NVIDIA, Broadcom, Qualcomm,
a few others, while a ton left for dead.
And as we've said to you so often,
we have a laundry list of stocks in bad shape.
We want the day to come where the broad market starts coming on
And it just doesn't happen.
And it could.
We're not saying it won't.
We're just saying it hasn't.
And it's something that we've got to watch and watch very carefully.
One of the main culprits have been software stocks.
All the small to mid-software stocks have been croaking.
We're hoping they get better.
We'll let you know.
There's been a few that got a little better, but most have not.
And we're so big on these advanced declines versus the indices because how do bear market start with a lot of narrowness.
So stay tuned.
We'll be on it.
Until Monday, you all have a great weekend, drive carefully.
Thanks for putting up with me.
But we the people.
And when you get home, do like we do quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Stay well.
Be well.
Thanks for joining us. Serenity now. Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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