Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - NASDAQ Continues Big Underperformance

Episode Date: December 27, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Tuesday, December 27, 2022. Hope you had a Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Anything you celebrate. Hope you are all doing well. and alive and kicking.

We got lots of, yes, we do have a bunch to talk about today, ladies and gentlemen. Right from the get-go, we're going to hit you right between the eyes on something we told you on Friday because it's repeating itself again today. And this is about protecting you and your big bucks, kids. It's about protecting you and your big bucks. You see, I know what you hear. I know what you see. We know what you hear.

We know what you see. Don't worry. Everything's okay. everything's going to be fine own big tech it's just the bear market it's been there before uh we know you're down 35 percent but it'll come back everything's good every don't worry everything's fine no really really uh as we have told you everything's not fine bare markets are not fine you can lose a ton of money in bear markets how low is low one of the big rules of bear markets as we taught you throughout the years is when you think it has gone as far as it can to the downside

it keeps going lower. And it's exactly what's been going on in this market. So we're going to hit you right between the eyes from the get-go. Then we'll do the market wrap. Then we'll whine and complain. For starters, though, and by the way, we are doing the show, market's going to close at about 15 minutes. Let me give you what the market is at right now.

Dow is up 64, but the NASDAQ's down 124. Let me repeat. Dow is up 64, the NASDAQ is down 124. What did we tell you on Friday? What have we been telling you for weeks? We'd rather see the opposite. What have we been telling you for weeks? It tells you that the big money, the institutions that are meeting in the mornings with the investment policy committees and they're looking at what the markets do and they're hearing from their analysts, they're hearing about interest rates, they're hearing about this, that, and the other thing.

And they're saying, sell risk, sell technology. Sell high beta, sell now biotech, and go park that money in Procter & Gamble. Go park that money in Pepsi. Park that money in General Mills. Park that money in post cereals. You know, boring. Recession resistant. Very liquid companies.

sell Tesla sell Netflix sell Nvidia sell AMD sell Adobe sell Macado Libre

sell all the high beta software types that have been murdered already and now sell the solar and park that money and how do we know this? Oh it's just the evidence the market's giving

so today is another day, which worries the hell out of us, it is indicative of the big institutional money, de-risking, preparing, recognizing, and our job is to interpret. And I will tell you, NASDAQ as we speak, is near the ledge. The closing lows on the NASDAQ in the bare market. The closing lows, 10305. Excuse me, 10308. It hit 10313.13. It hit 10313. Friday before bouncing. Now we're a little bit lower on the non-closing, meaning they were lower in the middle of the day and finished higher by the end.

But all we can tell you is, and listen carefully, they're chipping away. And they're chipping away. And they're chipping away. And how long they're able to keep those other areas of the markets up, the boring stuff. remains to be seen. But typically when money is parked, out of risk and into boring, there is that shelf life before under the weight of the whole market, they get a bunch. Now, keep in mind in bare markets, the food stocks will always hold up better than the risky areas. The food, drug, beverage, household products. I can throw tobacco.

in there, though you got that risk of tobacco? What other areas hold up better? Usually utilities. Real boring stuff. And that's where the market's flowing right now. Bigley. And I mean bigly. And you better be listening.

What else? Tesla's down another 13 to 109. Wow. What a colossal blunder by Leon Musk. a colossal blunder buying Twitter I believe a lot of this is discounted by that purchase

and the worry he's spending too much time but you know what else is going on now what do we tell you about Rivian when it came public and hit 170 it was worth 20 it's 1766 down of $1.48 you know what's happening now

there's worry about how many electric vehicle cars are going to be sold going that maybe just maybe people don't like them as much as everybody thought they would. Remember we warned you? Remember what we warned you else about? The driverless cars said it was never going to happen. The taxi, the air taxis, we said it was never going to happen. Oh, yeah, there's driverless cars out there, but will you ever get in one?

No, really. I'm not. Remember what I would talk about here, risk management. So a lot of these things are unwinding even further. And we're stunned. We're stunned that Tesla now is sitting at 109 and change. It was 198 three weeks ago. It was 237 beginning November.

313 middle of September. Wow. What have we said to you in bare markets? How low is low? And we just got another example. Tesla was in the top five of meaning to the NASDAQ 100. Remember, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Google, Microsoft. Used to be Facebook.

But of course, that's been trashed also. So we're hitting you right between the eyes from the get-go. Just another crummy day. As I speak now, Dow's up 43. Nasdaq 137 just took a little tankage. Hope you've been listening. We've been dead serious about this. We ain't screwing around.

And I don't know what tomorrow brings. All we can tell you, NASDAQ looks ready for another leg down soon. I don't know if it's this week or into next year. NASDAQ looks ready for another leg down. Also in the bare market, remember what we also tell you. Usually there's this big, gigantic cough-up phase. I don't think we've seen.

So stay tuned, kitties. It's not a pretty end of year. And just so you know, we watch this stuff all day. We can tell, we can feel, we can see. And the reason why we've been harping on this for the last weeks and weeks, the evidence that comes in every day. There's no better eye than us in this whole world. We are the best technicians in the world.

There's nobody works hard in this. with a bit more focus and nobody that puts it on the line live and tell you exactly how we think and how we feel and what we're seeing and just letting you know NASDAQ is on the ledge NASDAQ 100's on the ledge Apple on the ledge 16 billion of every time it moves a dollar of market cap it's stunning how big apples got stay tuned kitties as we head into the end of the year. I wish we had better news to tell you, but we deal in reality. We don't deal in BS. We tell it like it is. And that is the story as we take you towards the close today. Another day of misery. Dow's up 30. Nasdaq's down 140 as I speak. You want it the other way around. You want the

Dow down 140 and the NASDAQ up 30. How do we know this? We've studied every bull and bear market. Our job is to measure price, patterns, major trends, and risk appetite. You measure risk appetite by where the big money's flowing. And when it's flowing out of Mercado Libre into Procter & Gamble, as we stated, it speaks volumes. Up next. We'll take it to the close. What else is going on? This is the one on the investor's edge.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And by the way, we got four minutes to the close. Earlier, the Dow was up 200. And the NASDAQ was hardly up. When the Dow was up 100, the NASDAQ was down 100.

So we'll see. We got four minutes left. the Dow's up 42, the NASDAQ's down 136. They can pop the Dow back up easily. They've been trading the Dow paper thin today. I watched it go up 100 points in 45 seconds earlier today. No, not kidding. So we'll do the market wrap in three minutes at the close.

Other things I do want to talk about, the solar stocks have topped out also. N-phase is strong name, totally broken now. And first solar, the only name above the 50-day is now breaking the 50-day, as I speak this second. So just let you know, the solars, that's another area that looks to be topped out. On the other end, that's just sticking out today, the defense stocks are acting decent. Lockheed and Northrop Grumman looks like they want to break out. We won't trust them. And Caterpillar and Deer still act pretty decently. We won't trust those either. Why? Anything that's tried to break out, a range has pretty much failed. Simple as that.

other things gold and silver still acting decently nothing spectacular but relative wise pretty decent and i must tell you don't ask me what sporting goods is about but dick's sporting goods in academy sports act well that's a little two uh two uh group two name group out there uh but that's really all i can tell you it was a very much low beta day Dow types risk off risk on bad by the way, that includes the semiconductors as I speak down 45. And by the way, as I speak now, the Dow came in a little bit more. Dow's up 22, NASDAQ down 144. NASDAQ 100 down 162.

As we got two minutes left in the day. I can't say that word. I'm not going to say that word. Blank poor. Starts with a P. Kind of the word when you go wee. I can say that, right? Dow up 10, NASDAQ,

148 on the downside. Worse of all worlds. Because you know what's going to happen today. You know, NBC, ABC, CBS, the Dow was up 13 today. And the average person home, okay, you know, it didn't go up, it didn't go down. Oh, yes, it did. Oh, yes, it did. Remember what we do is look underneath the surface, underneath the hood, unlike the rest. And boy, we heard some doofuses today on the tube. Blah, blah, blah, blah. And the first half of the year and then the second half of the year. And January, this is going to happen.

February, that's going to happen. March and April, we think so. My goodness gracious. $359. Dow up 35, bounced up a little bit. NASDAQ still down 144. NASDAQ 100, down 164. That's ill.

That's ill, ladies and gentlemen. That's terrible. And we know and most people don't because they're going to report the Dow up today and we're going to say, boy, today was a miserable day. We're just waiting on the close here, kids. And we'll give you the final numbers. We'll do the market wrap brought to you by.

Investment-dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rawback, one of the great market timers. No gray area with the man you're either in or out of the market. with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Dow down 37. Excuse me, Dow up 37.

NASDAQ down 144, NASDAQ 100, down 162. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. I'm not sure I've seen it like this in a very long time. And you know we measure our words here. So let me measure my words with the next. statement. Nothing's 100%. Anything is possible. What if the Dow comes in and they start buying up the

NASDAQ? Well, I can tell you, as of this second, that ain't happening. All evidence in, we think there's a pretty decent odds of the NASDAG gagging and breaking the lows real soon. But that really doesn't matter at this point because we've kept you out of this nausea all the way down. And rallies have been anemic, this whole rally up while the Dow led. So I wish I had better news to tell you. 600 new yearly lows, few new yearly highs, all in the boring stuff. And that's the story. Stunning, stunning divergences.

And I wish they were positive divergences. You know what a positive one is? It's when the Dow is down 100, but the NASDAQ's up $1,000. And advanced declines are two to one to the positive. That's a positive divergence. That ain't happening. In Solars today, N-Phase down 19th. S-E-D-G down 17.

First Solar down six and a half, teasing, breaking the 50-day. I'm looking at my high beta page. Yuck. Pure red. Gold, silver, pure green. And here's an interesting thing. You know, I don't read Barron's magazine. It comes out every Saturday.

I just don't find any value added to it. No indictment. They had a positive article on Beyond Tech and Moderna, for the vaccines, both down 9% today. How can that be? Don't stocks go up on positive articles? Not today. Biotech is looking really weak.

That's been a group that had been holding up. Regeneron, gone, broke. Vertex pharmaceuticals gone, broke. Biogen, break in the 50 day. That looks to be gone. So fewer and fewer working, more and more breaking. As the Dow was up today. And I repeat, that ain't no hill for a climber.

I repeat, we're frothin at the mouth. I repeat, why? because the last legs of the bare markets are vicious and usually spawn new bull markets. For those who have kept their capital near at high watermarks, have not been trashed in this market, and have a keen eye for markets bottoming, boy, oh boy. So we are ready. Not yet, though. We'll let the market provide the evidence. We haven't seen any yet whatsoever.

of a market bottom. We have not called one market bottom since November of 21. We've called counter-tren rallies. That's all. All have failed. Up next. This, that, and the other thing. Oh, Southwest Airlines, my comments.

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What's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm your host. A. Thanks for being with us today. All right, Southwest Airlines. I love Southwest Airlines. Gary Kelly, the ex-CEO, who used to be the CFO before that and was named CEO, and I think in part because, A, he was a great CFO, and he hedged on oil prices a very important time years ago.

He used to come on our radio show. Anyway, Gary Kelly retired. And I don't even know the got new guy's name. But let me just say this. Boy, you letting down. Not only your customers, your employees. Some of the nicest,

most professional, most engaging people I've met through the years are the people you meet who work for Southwest Airlines at the airports. The person at ticket counters at the kiosks.

At the gate, the stewards and stewardesses, I think that's what they're still called, on the planes. The pilots. The nicest, most engaging people that I know in business.

They're being let down. If you are corporate at Southwest Airlines and you are listened to this show, get your freaking act together. I don't care about cyclone bombs, snow bombs, this bombs, that bombs, bad weather, this bad weather. You're supposed to know what cities you are in and what's the worst case scenarios and prepare for them. And you have not and did not. And now we're finding out that you have never upgraded your technology for where your power.

Pilots and your people are in case of these ongoing negative events. And in case you don't know, what ends up happening is when this weather happens and things are stranded, they're supposed to really know where everybody is. Oh, you got 10 pilots in Buffalo and, oh, we need to get them over there, but we can't. So we got to, they don't even know. and employees of Southwest are putting it out anonymously what's been going on on Reddit forums to people. I'm reading here that they're saying people aren't going to find their luggage for a month, a month, that people haven't been able to get online. People haven't been able to speak to anybody.

There are lines and lines of hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people at the airports. that don't know where they can go and where they can stay that night. And to get different flights from these places, other airlines are charging $800, and the Southwest Airlines are going to pick up that nut, and they don't know that. So the communication is a horror show. So to corporate Southwest Airlines, get your freaking act together.

You are not only letting down your customers, who, by the way, you're going to lose a ton of them. But your people that have loved your company. I've spoken to many of them that have been with you 10, 15, 20 years and speak well of you guys. But there is no excuse for this. I just flew southwest. Where'd I fly from, oh, Orlando down to Lauderdale, $200, by the way. They used to be called the discount airline.

I had to go pick up my car because of the hurricane. and I left it down in Miami before I left to London. They're the greatest. You know what I do for them? I stop at Starbucks and I get $5 gift cards and I give it to the people there. Just because. Anyway, that's Southwest Airlines. Hope they get their act together.

Listen, for the people that are stranded and the employees. Next, I do want to let, we're skipping back a little bit here, the 10-year yield. It would hit a low of 3.402 about three weeks ago. It's back to 3.86. And I can tell you it's back above the 50-day moving average, but that's really not a non-thing right now except guess what? That's a big problem. Because from 4-3 back to 3-4, what does that help?

Cost of capital is coming down, cost of mortgages are coming down. In the last one, two, three, four, five, six days, three point four and change to three point eight six. If that continues, I can tell you flat out, nothing good's going to happen. And what it also does, it speaks to the morons at the central banks. So that didn't help either today. Next, the China ADRs were up again today, by do Alibaba, things like that. Just be careful. so China is loosening all their BS up there.

But we're hearing news about how many people are getting COVID and the worry about vaccines and there's rumors about death. So I just be careful about that. These are just things being reported third hand. I don't really know. I'm just letting you know I don't trust anything that comes out of there. the dude is a communist through and through he's a control freak he's you know put people into jail who just says a crossword about government i told you to read up about apple news just so you know there's something like that in hong kong read up jimmy lye and read what they're doing to this guy oh and by the way they're loosening up travel like i'm

never going to travel to China again. And I would love to. It's magnificent some of the cities there. But I'd be afraid because just what I'm saying here, I'm wondering if they ever, you know, and on TV, I've said a few things.

Nothing untrue. And it's just opinion, but they don't like opinion. And I can't go to Hong Kong again either. Because they now take over Hong Kong. Oh, well. Bahamas, here I come. Okay, so anyway, I wish I had better news. It's another one of those days.

Worst of all worlds. The Dow masking serious damage in growth land, in technology land, in all that land, in risk appetite land. And we hope you're paying attention and we are stunned. We're stunned about Tesla. Netflix, they're breaking down again. Apple is right on long-term ledge. Go get a weekly chart. Going back five years and look at Apple and see where it's sitting now.

That 129 to 134 area, it's now 130. And of course, all the other names that we have highlighted for you also. That had just been destroyed over the last year, year and a half. Oh, we got asked about marijuana stop. because a couple of weeks, let me say, it was early December we sent you, just letting you know a marijuana stock's had a good couple of days on very heavy volume. And we said to you, we're going to watch and see what comes of it. They've crashed them ever since. You know, why?

There was some thought process about what was going to happen with legally with marijuana. I guess it didn't happen. That's why you don't speculate. That's why we don't speculate. And now electric vehicles. There's articles on SPACs now that they're all dead. Just so you know, the bunch of SPACs now are just shutting down. They're now shutting down.

They're returning the money. You know why? They had two years to merge with companies. There ain't no merging. And unfortunately, some people got very fat off of your back. The dirt bags. The dirt bags. The absolute dirt bags.

People made bazillions. Unbelievable. Up next, we head to Washington, D.C., because we must. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. I will be on, I will be on with Charles Payne. I'm not sure he's in this week, but I'll be on Charles Payne show tomorrow at 2 p.m. Fox Business Network, check it out.

As you know, we don't pull any punches when it comes to Washington, D.C. and the 31 trillion of debt. The gargantuan amount of lies coming from Biden and before that Trump, before that Obama, before that Bush. And everything that's wrong with D.C. Happened in the last three or four days. culminating with something that happened today. So let me explain.

First off, we had an election, and now that everybody got reelected who got reelected, anybody who were newly elected, they waited for it, and then they screwed all of us again. First off, you know what earmarks are, right? It's where, you know, the congressmen and women,

could get money sent to their districts for certain things. Well, they were banned a bunch of years ago. They brought them back just to give us another middle finger. And usually it's just for a bunch of crap. But I digress. So they do this spending bill, 1.7 trillion record beyond. And this is just discretionary. It does not include everything else.

They put a defense bill in there, $8.58 billion, even though they only asked for like $800. We had whined and complain to you. Being of the number one guy on defending of the citizens, I believe the number one job of government is to defend the citizenry. The number two, number three job. But $8.58 billion when in the year 2000 was only $320 billion. What do you think about that? The number's astronomical. But I digress again.

But they are not telling you, though, federal spending this year is going to be close to $6 trillion. They're not telling you that the debt's going to be about $1.4, $1.5 trillion. In fact, Biden's lying. Oh, he's lowering the debt and deficit. It's a big gigantic lie. All he's doing is the COVID spending is going away, and that's what he's using as, hey, look at me. So that in itself sucks. But here's the other part of the equation.

You guys ever hear of George Santos? Well, he just won election in the third congressional district in New York or Republican. Unfortunately, he's a lying sack a crap. Just so you know, he's lied about his whole life. His whole resume is a lie. His whole resume is a lie. is a lie. His jobs, he lied. His college, he lied. His religion, he lied. His whole life is a lie, but he got elected. And that in itself is wrong, obviously, and should be disqualifying. He should be out. He should not be a congressman. He should not be one of 435 people that gets the vote on a future. Get your ass out. Goodbye. You lie in sack.

Unfortunately, Elizabeth Warren's the same, and she's been in D.C. forever and is in leadership of the Democratic Party. Isn't that great? You get to lie about your heritage to gain status and money like Elizabeth Warren. So it's not just one party, it's both. But here's the other part of the equation. Guess what the Democrats said today about this George Santos a Republican. Get out. Get out. Ban them. Goodbye. Get out. Get out. I watch arguably the number one Republican, not a politician, a guy who heads up, a major Republican, supposedly conservative. I'm not going to mention who. When asked about George Santos said, well, he shouldn't lie, but Elizabeth Warren did it. But voters should have the say. Think about that. this miserable piece of crap in the Republican Party, a leader of the Republican Party in the conservative movement,

doesn't give a crap that this guy lied about his whole life and is now a congressman just because he's a Republican. Ladies and gentlemen, none of them give a crap about us. They just don't care. It's all about their money. It's all about their power. By the way, this guy who commented, also, got $750,000 to get somebody pardoned through Donald Trump.

Somebody paid him that. And by the way, Trump never pardoned the guy. He still got his 750,000. Isn't it nice? Aren't these people sweet? Remember what we told you, ladies and gentlemen, it's all about money and power, and they just don't care. We're a bunch of marks.

And all in one week, another middle finger on spending, another week where you've got a Republican lying out as whatever. The Democrats say nothing. Democrats want them out and the Republicans are crickets. And of course, on the Democrat side, the same thing. Republicans want the Democrat out and the Democrat crickets. And that's how you get the $31 trillion of debt.

That's how you get into our position. That's how you get out of control inflation. That's how you get bubbles. That's how you get big losses. That's how you get bubbles popping. That's how you get all this. They just don't care. And I wish more and more and more of you get out of the tank and realize,

I really do believe they're cursing each other out in front of the camera and laughing their asses off behind the camera, pop in champagne corks as they make themselves filthy, rich beyond recognition, off of our backs, in plain sight. and nobody doing anything about it. The Federal Reserve, a bunch of them resigned for insider training. Things we'd go to jail for, they just had a step down. Jay Powell, he was cited for it also.

They brought in somebody to look it over, and guess what they said? Oh, everything's cool. The fix continues to be in. Wish I had better news. You all have a great evening. Drive carefully. and when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better as we wind down the clock to the end of the year. Hopefully we'll have better news going forward. Peace out, everybody. Take care. Thanks for joining.

Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Hills.