Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Nasty Week in Review!

Episode Date: September 16, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it's friday september 16th 2022 and good that the week's over. Hope you all have a very good weekend. I plan on resting, relaxing, working out if their sun, get a little bit of sun, take the dog to the lake

and have them run around with the rest of the dogs and all that. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. If you don't follow us on Twitter, you should. just go to Twitter, put my name in, or press the button at garyk.com.

You can email me, just be nice. Just be nice, be respectful. Just remember we're all in this together. And when I blast your favorite politician, what do you give a crap? Your life is going to change for the better because of a politician. So let's be nice. I'll respect you. And whatever else comes with all that crap.

We've got a few things we want to tell you. A few things we want to go backwards on. We made predictions over two years ago and we don't like predicting. What we are is about interpreting markets, getting the big picture right and the main trends right. And you all know that have been listening and watching and following, we've nailed this main trend in the bear market. We've been out.

We've tried a couple of counter-trend rallies. which we do, made some loss some, but pretty much stayed at or near high water marks in a very tough environment, very newsy, noisy environment, but main trends, that's the key. But going back, we predicted the bubbles before they even happened. We predicted the bubbles popping. We predicted the biggest distortions would be in the bond market. We told you that. How did we know this?

You can't have one man in his whims. Print up to $9 trillion to manipulate the biggest market in the world without a good outcome at the end. You can't have a good outcome at the end. Has to be bad. And of course, what happened with 0% rates? Very simple. It was too easy to borrow money, too easy to leverage, too easy to buy homes. making homes unaffordable at the end.

What else do we predict? Inflation. What do we say a thousand times on this show? Too much money chasing too few hands. Or chasing nothing in this case. And of course we got it. And of course, we have ripped the stuffings out of this guy, Jay Powell, and the rest of them, there's 11 others, that they don't know what they're doing. They don't have a freaking clue.

So when the inflation finally showed up and we're yelling and screaming about it and I'm on TV, I'm on radio every day, they don't know what they're doing this. And they're saying, remember they said it's transitory for five months? Or was it six months? We sent to an intermediary, a note to the president of the United States. Dude, stop listening to Jay Powell about transitory. It's much worse. And there's major inflation. If you don't start finding, and I don't know if it got them.

not because that intermediary does not answer me anymore. True story. I told the intermediary about the bear market and he better understand that. I told the intermediary about a big recession coming and housing tanking. I don't hear back from them anymore. We predicted housing debacle. We're in the midst of one now. That's the easy part. Unaffordability, meat, mortgage rates going from 2 and 3 quarters percent over 6 percent with the average mortgage is like up 90 percent from where it was boom one two punch everything we predicted but we didn't predict we thought he was bad he's still slow walking inflation everybody's talking about the fed he's meaningless now he's like an ex-boyfriend and an ex-girlfriend you never want to hear from anymore you know if you ever break up with your boyfriend your girlfriend your girlfriend and they keep calling you back and you just don't want to hear from anymore. That's the market with Jay Powell. The market is every ex-boyfriend and girlfriend.

Jay Powell keeps trying to do something but he doesn't know what he's doing. So we remain in the soup. And now the next part of the prediction, we told you a year or a half ago, recession's going to come and probably a good one. Well, we got two down quarters. That's already recession. Now FedEx. In case you don't know FedEx, Federal Express, 92 billion in revenues. In case you don't know they are worldwide, in case you don't know, they move a ton of different stuff. The CEO came out and said, we're going to have a worldwide recession and said it really got worse at the end of his quarter, which is fiscal end of August.

We predicted all of this, and we don't like predicting, but it was a gimmy. You can't distort financial markets forever. And he did. and screwed savers. The good news is for the savers that we're getting 0%. A one-year note is 4% now. A three-month T-bill is like 3.5%. Money markets move up. And you know what he's doing next week, by the way?

He's raising rates. A 3-quarters of percent. Everybody's, oh, what's the Fed going to do? What's the Fed going to do? But all he's going to do is raise rates from 2.3 to 3. The one year's already four. The one-year yield is sticking a big gigantic middle finger out of J-Powell and say, hey, bud, we're on the third lap, you're on the first lap.

So he's still way behind. And markets don't like that because, you know, there's an intangible called credibility. And when you're the most important person on earth and you don't have a clue and you're still way behind, the market knows this and gets what the market does. It sells off. And now we're in recession, and it's going to get worse. because so many things are happening. All predicted.

The reverse wealth effect. Housing prices coming down, feeling less wealthy. Markets coming down, feeling less wealthy. If you own bonds, bonds coming down, feeling less wealthy. The coins have crashed, feeling less wealthy. There's no more NFT businesses down 80%. That stupid con. feeling less wealthy.

And they're happy about it. The schmuck, Neil Keshkari, one of the culprits, said he was happy that when we had that thousand-point drop on a Friday after this Jackson old speech, do you believe what kind of schmucks these people are, are happy that you're losing your butt? This is what we're dealing with. And what's been my big worry? On top of all this, this, this,

run in the show. They are quacks in the doctor sense. And we still have to deal with them. Just so you know, everybody's going to be on pins and needles next week. What's the Fed going to do? But it doesn't matter. I'm telling you, they don't matter the economy. A shred. The real market has already done its job and continues to do its job. They're just playing catch-up. go watch the race of Secretariat winning the Belmont Secretariat is the market Jay Powell I will even give him second place

What was he 30 lengths behind And he doesn't know what he's doing He still thinks he's smart He still thinks he's a genius Because I'm the head of the center He's a moron And we're the victims And that's why I'm so pissed off

We're the victims And you know what one of them said this week? Well, the week yet last week? Jobs. We're going to need the job market to suffer. What a softening said. What? We're going to need people to lose their jobs.

This is coming from our central bank. It was a man. So if he didn't have a steel cup, anybody who loses their job should be able to kick him right where he's going to scream bloody murder. Oh, God. They should be kicked into grapefruits for that statement. Yet they still have jobs.

Up next. The Week in Review. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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It doesn't get better than this. Do you hear how pissed off I am and how frustrated I am? I think there's a hell of a chance we're going to have a deep recession and a ton of you. to lose jobs. And that's not the scary deal in reality here. And one of the Fed had said necessary evil. They should lose their jobs. It's sickening. Let's move on. So Federal Express was down unbelievable for this type of company. $43.83 to $161, $161, $21, $21, $21, $21,000. percent and change. A major lowering of earnings and revenue going forward.

And the statement from the CEO again thinks there's a global recession. And here's the thought. If anybody knows what's going on out there, it's the guy that moves $92 billion worth of stuff around the globe. And he's saying there's a heck of a lot less of that stuff being moved. That's commerce. So just letting you know, for starters, the transports were down.

Four and a quarter percent. Yuck. They were down eight and a half percent on the week. And it wasn't just FedEx. Avis ran a car down 14 today. That was like 9%. J.B. Hunt was trucker down. 4.5%.

Union Pacific 3%. UPS in sympathy, 4%. I can go on and on and on and on and on. And under that guys, just so you know the hotel stocks were upgraded yesterday, they got smeared today. Why would they get smeared the next day? Guess what the FedEx guy is saying?

What do you think happens in recession? Discretionary spending drops. What's that? Airlines, cruise lines, hotels, casinos, amusement parks. So we'll just start with Federal Express today. The next thing I want to bring up, throughout this bear market, one of our easiest signals and greatest signals

that we gave to you. in front of drops was a big pickup in new yearly lows, even though the indices were not in new yearly lows. What does that mean? Let's say the indices are 5% above the new yearly lows, even 10%. So the debt market drops rallies up. Let's say the S&P,

hits 3,600 and rallies up to 3,900, 4,000, 10%. And then starts heading lower. Still 9% above the lows, but 875 stocks hit new yearly lows. Wait a minute, hold on. How can that be? Well, that means the average stock is leading the indices. And you know what always follows? The indices.

Do you know why that is? because when the market is derisking, it de-risk the stuff that's not liquid and they just go. What holds up best? The biggest liquid names in the market that have the influence on the indices, so they will hold up better. But then finally, under the weight of the weakness, they get the indices and boom. And that's how we were able to know every single time. Oh, by the way, that 875 new yearly lows, that's today. I think new yearly lows are only like 350 yesterday.

So a big pickup today. Now, markets finished off of the lows today, but I'm going to give you a little, I don't know if it's secret, but a little hint on why even though markets came back some today, it's not great news. That'll be in a moment. Again, the big story for me, though, is New Yearly Lows. Not very good news.

Next, I just want to mention somebody I want you to follow. You can go on Twitter. Dan Niles, N-I-L-E-S. He's one of my favorites. One of the best. Just go follow him, and he posts up his videos. He was on with Liz Clayman on Fox Business today, and I actually missed it. I was doing some things and I was trying to tape, but we had storms here. My direct TV stopped taping. That's what happens with satellite. Follow him and when he posts the video. He on a fundamental side has been agreeing with me 100%. And he thinks there is more to the downside and explains why he's a technology stock genius. I'm a technology.

stock novice. I can explain things to you above the fray. He knows the difference between one semiconductor chip to another. I can explain it to you. I don't know crap underneath the surface, but I'm pretty damn good knowing what's leading and what's lagging, and that's what really matters. So check out Dan Niles. Next thing. So here's the hint. On every Friday after the close. I scan weekly charts. So when I look at the chart, it's a weekly bar that takes in the whole week and it really accentuates the daily one-year chart is meaningful most to me. But the two-year, I know some people that love the weeklies better. I mix it up and I'm just letting you know the weekly charts in the market look like the south end of a northbound jackass even though we bounced up

why because even though we bounced off the lows today we still finish near the lows of the week on a weekly basis not so sure that augurs well and then the other part of the equation 875 new yearly lows. That's bitching. And the advanced declines today, 1,022 up, 312 down on the New York, 1328 up, 3,049 down on the NASDAQ. That's bad news. The things that kind of bounced by the end of the day today are the things that have been trashed the most. That's not good news. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently, spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbeta. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,

whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff, building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things

that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.

That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing career,

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America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

A few tidbits. If you hear this on Monday when you turn into this show, if you hear this, you ready? That would mean I won the Mega Millions jackpot this weekend. Or tonight. I don't buy lotos unless it goes above $250 million. That's because the odds are like $300 million, so it's closer. I bought a few. So if you hear silence on Monday, I'm gone.

I was wondering, you know, when I bought the ticket, I was like driving back in a storm. What would I do if I won that? You know, I'd do pretty well already. Would I just chuck it all and just, you know, I don't think I can answer that question until only if it happened. Anyway, next, I've got to mention this. You know what David Beckham is? he's a Brit and I guess one of the great soccer stars of all time

football they call it there and he's a superstar over there he is Michael Jordan over here he went on the queue to see the queen did not call in his superstardom 13 hours I love that

things like that tell you about somebody and it really does tell you about somebody he waited 12 to 13 hours and I'm not saying he's oh I mean others are doing it too it's just that I've met a lot of people of quote-unquote status that think there you know what don't stink and they would just to soon run over somebody because they're peasants and this guy now 12 to 13 hours And you know what I'm hearing now? You ready for this? That the weight is now up to 24 hours.

Unbelievable. The weight is 24 hours. And they're saying it may get up to 30 hours. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. And they shut down the queue so it would, I don't know how they're going to work it. And you got the whole weekend. I guess Monday is the funeral.

that starts at 6 a.m. Eastern time here in the States. Unbelievable. Next, tidbits. Do you know there's another Indiana Jones movie coming out, even though Harrison Ford's in his 80s? You ready for this? How can this be? They're going to portray him in his 20s or 30s.

They're going to use technology to, I guess, overlay his old younger face for the whole movie. Do you like that? Just so you know, I have watched, Raiders of the Lost Ark. I'm going to say 50 times. Maybe even more than that. I'm thinking, wouldn't I rather just see the guy old?

I wasn't a big fan of Temple of Doom. I liked the one with Sean Connery. The last one was a little weird. Anyway, they're bringing them Indiana Jones. They're using technology. He's going to be in his 20s or 30s. I don't know if I'm thrilled with that. The last little tidbit.

I always feel I got to preface this. I take no joy in the commentary. Boy, this administration is a bunch of lines sacks a monkey crap. By the way, that's the rock from his wrestling days. That was his line. To listen to them talk about the Inflation Reduction Act and the economy. All one wants is straight. Now, the unfortunate part of the equation is that their hope is, and they're right, most people don't pay much attention to what they say because people are in the tank.

You know, you're on that side. It doesn't matter what they say or do. You're on the other side. Doesn't matter what they say or do. You're in that tank. That's the other part of my frustration. This administration sucks on the economy. They don't have a clue what drives it. They are control freaks. They are control freaks. They aren't. Marxists, they're raising taxes on corporations going into a recession or in a recession and they're lying about the recession. They come up with just a tax and spend bill, give 350, this is for you lefties that love this guy or love the party. They're given 350 billion of our taxiles for John Podesta, a lefty hack. And you know what money's going to? Nothing.

They're saying it's for climate. Really? To do what? You think it's ever going to be accounted for? A penny? It's going to go to their friends, their affiliates, their buddies, their payoffs. They ain't nothing going to get done. The big lie is they can stop the rain and the cold and the hot and the wind and the hurricanes tornado. The only person who can do that is Superman. And last I look, he's part of the comics. It's a money grab. and I wish you'd all understand that. Climate change is a money grab

perpetuated around the world by governments. Think about this. Governments that are now running $300 trillion of debt and we're supposed to trust them on what they tell us on the climate

when they first told us it was global cooling and then when it warmed up they changed it to global warming and then when it cooled down again They said, what marketing can we use? That can we never be wrong? Oh, climate change. If it's too hot, it's climate change and it's bad.

If it's too cold, it's climate change and it's bad. That's the weather fighting against us. They're full of crap. It is one big gigantic control grab and money grab. And you've got celebrities that'll look you straight in the face and say, you've got to help us and fight us, give us money, and get on freaking private jets and yachts. John Kerry, who's the lead guy on climate change from this administration,

middle fingering each and every one of us flying on private jets and has the nerve to tell us, well, I'm doing it for you so I can get around the globe faster. Really? Really? You can't get on British Air to London, Virgin Atlantic? You need to go to Singapore, Singapore Air. They are beautiful first class. And unfortunately, half the country's in the tank for one end, the other half for the other end. and that's how both ends get away with it. I lost that tank a long time ago. Join my tank.

The one that says they're all laughing their ass off at us. Go look at Al Gore's net worth after he came out with the movie and said that we have 10 years before Doom. 17 years later, you think one journalist has asked him, hey, Al, what happened seven years ago we were supposed to be doomed? You think one would ask that simple logical question? You know, they say the journalist is supposed to hold the powerful to account. That'd be simple enough. They do a great job on the other side, and rightfully so.

But unfortunately, they picked their side. And you know why Fox News was created and thrives? because they decided, you know, if they're not going to hold that other side to the account, we're going to. Simple logic by Rupert Murdoch. That's my last tidbit. The market wrap brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com.

That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com. Dowdown 139, S&P, 286, NASDAQ 103, NASDAQ 166, but transport 685. Way off the lows, though, on the bigger indices.

We'll explain that in a second and much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Embatta. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.

It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature.

Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.edu. You. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Inverster's Edge with Gary Culper. And what, once again, to Investor's Edge. If I got to interview this administration on everything, their veins would be popping out of their head and neck, and they'd want to grab my neck through the television set. They could not handle my questions. You know why? I'd actually ask a follow-up question when they lie. What a concept.

On the week, the week in review. Hey, that is brought to you by also Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Roarbeck, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. NASDAQ down 5.48%. The NASDAQ low today was 11-316-133.13.3.3.3.3.3. So it was down 235, finished down 104. But still down. The S&P for the week down 4.77%. Hit 3837 today, closed at 3873. So it was down 64, closed down 28.

But by the way, closed a little bit below that 3,900. But with a little, how do I put this? On the day, the bar has a little. little, how do I put this? The horizontal line is a little higher than the low. The Dow on the week, down 4.14%, hit 35, well, really, it was down 209, finished down 139, but still down 4.14 on the week. The transports 8.41% But don't worry, they're just the transports.

The socks finished up on the day. I just think that's just It was down 5.83 this week and still at a bad bar. Not washed out, but just man, oh man, they hit them pretty good early in the week. I really wouldn't go further than that

on that. And in the down, for example, today, Home Depot was up four and a half bucks. Started the week at $300. Close at $276, even being up four and a half. So you're going to get bounces like that. It does not change the complexion whatsoever. Just other things sticking out. We're going to go through things sticking out.

The oil stocks, not happening. And oil prices were up today. just remember oil stocks are stocks so they came under pressure also today there's the pipelines in decent shape but everything else pretty much coming down a lot of how do I put this the higher beta software names

that rallied above the all important 50 day moving average pulled back and held and rallied up for a few days a bunch of them are breaking now and some badly that's not good news commodities are trashed I mentioned transports financials came down

some broke the 50 days some around there but they've never been leadership Adobe makes a purchase yesterday for 20 billion bucks and reports earnings which deceleration market didn't like

Adobe a stalwart software company on that news goes from 371 not making this up closed at $299 today. That's unreal. And by the way, this is a big institutional owned stock still. And they're getting murdered. Facebook, new yearly low again today.

Broke the ledge a couple of days ago, down another three in change today. Facebook now is kind of at the lows, near the lows of the pandemic. That's how bad they are, and what have I told you? I don't think Zuckerberg knows what the hell he's doing. I think they're desperate with this meta-crap. And, you know, I would have never predicted Apple's comeback

from an O3 with the iPod, iPad, iPhone, so you never know. But I think Facebook is not dead, not going to go away. I think the stock can go a lot lower. There's no cool factor. And they really don't have a good hold of things. Just personally, I got hacked. They shut me down. I try to get back on.

They wouldn't let me. And then all of a sudden, I get something from them that says I have an account. And I'm like, where did that come from? I'm not so sure they have the P's and Q's going on besides their BS bias. You know what they did the election, just like the rest of the social media. they did everything possible to make sure Trump doesn't win the election. By the way, that's where the collusion was. That's where Trump should be yelling and screaming about the election,

not the other part of voting. The media and the social media colluded. They blacked out Hunter Biden. They blacked out any bad news on Joe Biden, the big guy. We know he was influenced peddling with his son. It's a gimmie. And of course, Trump did everything possible to lose also, but just making a point.

Netflix I want to bring up. Good day yesterday on an upgrade and was even up again today. There is talk that this new way of doing Netflix. It's going to be ads supported. And I'm not sure what it's going to look like. Maybe it'll be good for them and it can get things better. I don't know if it's going to get them more subscribers, but they can make more money, maybe, and that'll help the stock.

The good news is it's off the lows. the bad news is it's still 240 bucks down from 701 last November by the way if that ain't a lesson for you that even the stalwarts can go by I don't know what it is

so that's some tidbits for you next week's the Fed but again I repeat they don't matter they can move the market for a day all they're doing is playing catch-up and if interest rates keep going higher their hand is forced even more and right now

still elevated. That said, you'll have a great weekend. Drive carefully. Monday will be on with, let's see, Charles Payne at 2 p.m. on Fox Business. And, yeah, until the same time on Monday, again, have a great weekend. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.

Make sure you hug your children. They'll feel better. You will feel better, I promise. Exercise, alcohol is overrated. Marijuana sucks. Brought to you by the government that's legalizing it while telling you Cigarettes are bad for you. There's that logic. Take care, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Bye-bye.

This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

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