Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Nearing The Ledge.

Episode Date: December 19, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is December 19th, 2012. Hope you're having a great day. Lots to talk about. lots to discuss first off hope you and yours have a safe happy prosperous holiday season whatever happy Hanukkah merry Christmas what else is out there whatever there is out there we wish you all the best we wish you all the happiness all the healthiness all the

prosperous and more importantly your football team does well as my My Giants had a very good game yesterday, and I was quite happy. My fantasy football team needs a little help tonight. I have a tight end called Tyler Higbee of the Rams. He just needs to, number one, they don't even throw it to him. I just need a decent game, and I'll win this week. All right, that's our football. I've been deciding what I wanted to do today.

As you know, we do not script the show. As you know, all we're trying to do is guide you through this bear market, which is now starting to gain teeth again. We warned you starting, listen carefully. Two Mondays ago, we did the show and reported to you, uh-oh. That was the story. The markets, we're getting right into them. Regional banks were croaking.

Other financials were croaking. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100 never even got going while the Dow stocks have led. We have warned you about this the whole time, wondering what the outcome is going to be. Because if they come get the Dow, they're going to break the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100. And if the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 break the bare market lows, here's how it works. Are you ready?

The greatest lesson anybody on Wall Street can teach you where Wall Street doesn't even tell you about it, doesn't care about it because they're just fully invested donut heads. Nothing against the donuts. So since October 13th, the market had a rally off the lows. The problem has been what we call the risk indices, the risk on indices, the risk appetite indices have hardly gone anywhere. They came off the lows, but not even close to the Dow at all. And we have told you our belief was that is the big institutions, the mutual funds, the hedge funds,

they have these meetings in the morning. and after the close. And it's their investment policy meetings. And they're making decisions based on what they see. And these people have dozens and dozens of analysts, a lot smarter than me, that are constantly going out and getting a taste of what's going on. And when I say a taste of what's going on,

they know what's going on. It's called the big money crowd. And we follow them, we listen to them, we pay attention to them, we do our own homework also. Two Mondays ago, we had this counter-tren rally. All of a sudden, financials top badly, especially the regional banks. And the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, never got going. But all was not lost. We had an inflation number to come out.

we had Jay Powell, but it was a warning shot. On top of the financials, on top of the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, were the oils. And between the financials and the oils, it's a pretty decent part of the market. And then we got through the inflation number and the market started rallying. And then we got the Jay Powell and the market topped. And since then, nothing but gross. Nothing but gross. And what has happened is, number one, the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, all these areas, broke the 50-day moving average, on top of being in bad shape. And we're talking breaking the 50-day moving average, not in the bull market breaking, but still in a bare market and breaking again. So here's the most important thing we are seeing now. The most important thing we are watching now. The most important thing we understand now, and we can promise you most people don't. And even if they did, they wouldn't know what to do with it. Are you ready?

When we talk to about support levels, you know, price dropping to a certain level and holding and then rallying up, but then price dropping again to that same level and holding, and the market rallying up and then price dropping again to that certain level and holding. And amazingly, over a few month period, that same level holds every time it hits. Who's doing that? Who's holding that up? It's the big institutional crowds in their investment policy meetings, and they see it, and they recognize it, and they know, as long as they're,

that support holds, okay, fine for now. What do you think they do when they see support being broken? Just remember, those are the institutions carving away, making the ice thinner, less and less strength, less and less defense of price. So what do you think happens when these people are the defenders of price at certain levels and finally the price caves in? It tells you how weak things are. And then in these investment policy committees and meetings, holy crap, it's broken, how much stock do we have, what things are doing it, sell more. That's how it works. When we tell you, hey, this thing is rallying good bull market, every pullback's being contained at the 50-day moving average, that is them defending price.

Now you may think we're nuts How can that be? Come on How can that be? I got news for you. It's just something that works Time and time and time again Same as in bare markets Rallying up into the

declining 50-day moving average contains We're very careful with our words here The NASDAQ is getting Oh so close to the new yearly lows. The indices. Individual stocks are leading the way.

There are 474 NASDAQ new yearly lows today. That's individual names, even though the index is, have not. One of the great signs and great clues that it will break is more and more new yearly lows. How do we know that? because it just works. And how it works is if more and more names are breaking the lows,

that means they're chipping away at the lows. Simple as that. 474 today. So our thought process is onefold. We're not predicting it's going to happen. We're saying that it's on the way to happening, and there better be a goal line stand soon. We're just letting you know we think odds favor, good chance,

nothing's ever 100%. But again, if the yearly lows get taken out on the NASDAQ, we think that's going to invite some pretty darn good more institutional selling. That's our take. How do we know this? We just know how things work. That's all. That's it.

474 new yearly lows, even though the index is not there. It just tells you things are weakening underneath the surface. We'll be watching. Markets are oversold here after the last five days. We can bounce. We could have said that before today. We didn't bounce. At the close of the day, we bounced a little.

The other part of the equation, what have we told you? The Dow has been much stronger than the NASDAQ. Why is that bad? That's up next. And lots more. There's the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-5-5-4-2.5.000. 59. That's 888-422-5-5-9. That's 888, 422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through

Colbaum Capital Management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. I earned my degree online at Arizona State University. I chose to get my degree at ASU because I knew that I'd get a quality education. They were recognized for excellence and that I would be prepared for the workforce upon graduating. To be associated with ASU, both as a student and alum, it makes me extremely proud. And having experienced the program, I know now that I'm set up for success. Learn more at ASUonline.asu.edu. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.

You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So to repeat, why is it so important to watch the Dow versus the NASDAQ? Because as we stated, these investment policy committee meetings,

they're sitting there saying, go add to your Johnson and Johnson and get the hell out of Amazon and Facebook, and Apple, and Tesla, and Paycom, and Octa, and ServiceNow, and all the high beta names. They're de-risking. And guess what we do? We measure the de-risking. And what do we understand about de-risking?

That's trouble. And what do we understand about the NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100 lagging and the Dow leading? That's trouble. It defines risk appetite. I watched a bunch of bozos on TV today. I expect this and I expect that. And we expect the market strong and earnings are already factored in, bad this and bad that already factored in,

and we're expecting a good 2023 from somebody who's been bullish the whole way down. So let me give you another stark example of the problem. You ready? The Dow was down a half percent today. the NASDAQ was down 1.5% today. Case closed. Another real bad day. Another real bad day. Another day of derisking by the institutional crowd into the end of the year. Now I'm getting emails. Gary, don't you think this is tax law selling? Here's our answer. We don't care. It's another day of derisking. Whatever the reason. And we have to be in recognition of it. Simple as that. The market wrap brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com.

That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. What is proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com. Dow down 162. It was down over 300. They rallied it up in the last few minutes.

Why would they rally it up? Oh, the 50-day moving average on the Dow was 32. 651. It undercut it today to 32-581. It finished above it today. It got defended. The Dow got defended today. That's all that happened. But the Dow being defended is not good news when they're not defending the risk appetite areas because as the Dow was only down 162, just a half percent, The NASDAQ was down 160, 1.5%. It's a huge divergence just today. So it continues.

NASDAQ 100 was down 159, about 1.4. The S&P was down almost 1% today. Double the Dow. And you're ready for this? Advanced declines. 1,093 up on the New York, 3,076 down. 1145 down up on the NASDAQ 3212 down what does that mean a lot of stocks are going down internal deterioration as we head into the end of the year with a central bank that's still

tightening in 2018 leading up to Christmas the market was getting trashed the Fed changed their stance Christmas Eve Jay Powell leaked through James Bullard, his mouthpiece, that they would stop raising rates and they had telegraphed to raise a few more times. The market immediately bottomed. The problem now for this same central bank is they would love to do the same thing now. The problem is they can't. Why? Back then there was no inflation. Now they created all this inflation and guess what? If they loosen up at this juncture, Market may crash anyhow based on no longer fighting the thing they created. And yes, we're dealing with that still, the whims of one man who doesn't have a freaking clue what he's doing.

Blind as a bat. Late as can be. So not a good day. I want to add something else in. Apple. We've warned you about that too. The low in Apple, October, November was 134. point 37 in October in November was 134.38.

It was down another $2.14 today to guess what price? 132.37. That hit 131. So now Apple's below the support of the last three months, still above the June low of $1.29. As we have stated to you, go look at a weekly on Apple. a break below there. Oh, that's going to be the NASDAQ breaking. What do odds favor? Not good.

Wish we had better news. We'd love to report differently. Ice got thinner again today. With the Dow only down a half percent, NASDAQ one and a half and advanced declines were terrible and new yearly lows. 474 new yearly lows on the NASDAQ, 188 on the New York. You ready for new highs?

You ready? On the NASDAQ. That's your new highs. Except one name. You ready? MDGL, a biotech with no sales. It's been public since 2007. And they still have no sales.

No, seriously. How do you stay public and have no sales for 15 years? That hit new yearly highs today. I'll explain. Up next. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals was up 235% today on drug news. A competitor, which is called Viking Therapeutics, was up 72% today.

That was a new yearly high also. Those are your two new yearly highs on the NASDAQ. That's it. On the New York, I have a couple of Chinese. ADRs. The two educational names, T-A-L and E-D-U. Vip Shop, V-I-P-S. And then I have Campbell Soup, smuckers, two food stocks,

and something called Lamb Weston, a food. Three food companies, New Yearly Highs on the New York. That's it. as we stated a ton of new yearly lows some not fly-by-nights Disney by the way

down foreign change day 85 I guess their movie didn't do as well Baxter Haynes Brands Alley Financial Capital One Financial VF Corp Global Payments Invitation Homes Lincoln National

Equity Residential Amazon, Warner Brothers, Blackstone, Tyson Foods, S.L. Green Realty, Dibold, deterioration. Tesla, Affirm Holdings, Coinbase, who warned you about that one. Match Group.

Aurora Cannabis, who warned you about the weed stocks. Roku. Riot blockchain, who warned you about that. Bed Bath and Beyond. Who begged you not to buy the short squeeze? Western Digital, Stitch Fix, Airbnb, CrowdStrike, Expedia, Raxpates, Mattel. How's Mattel at New Yearly Lows during Christmas? So we're just letting you know more deterioration today. And again, we wish we had better news, but this is what it is. and we repeat, if the new yearly lows get taken out and we put more odds on it happening than not, we believe that's going to invite some institutions to go,

here's some more and more and more and more. Also, of note today the 10-year went up a whole stick today to 3.58 from 3.48. That's not good news. as I look through my screens at my screens mostly read some green in the food stocks I mentioned to you but just mostly red I don't really see any group besides some food names with real strength whatsoever it's just a bare market that starting two Mondays ago we got worried with the financials and it's leading to other things and now all that that needs left to be done is the Dow break the 50 day,

and so far for a couple of days, they're defending it. Not so sure they can continue to defend it. We'll see. We'll see. So so far, not a merry, happy into the holiday season, unless you've listened to us. We've been quite to the point. We ain't messing. And the best news, cash now pays 3-4%.

3 to 4%. A year ago it was zero. Cash paid nothing because of the dirt bags at the central banks. Screwing you're stealing your money. So that's changed. I think that's all I got for you on the markets. Just not a good day. And I can promise you.

If the Dow is up 100 tomorrow but the NASDAQ's down, that's not going to be good. And it looks like the die has been cast on the NASDAQ breaking again. In the news. So the whatever panel, January 6th panel, has now sent to the Justice Department for criminal referrals on ex-president Trump. Just so you know, it's a referral. They cannot charge this panel, the president, but they can send it to the Justice Department to charge the president with crimes. You can go look it up.

now what these same people should do is be unbiased and now go after the big guy. You know, the corrupt Joe Biden with his son with their influence peddling. But they won't. Why? Because that's how it works. They don't care about you and they don't care about justice. They have to get the other side. And when the Republicans take over the House and they go to committees, guess what they're going to do?

They're going to go after the other side and not going to say a word. worried about their side. Again, none of them give a crap about your eye. It's just about sides. So if the Republican cons have a ton of criminals on their side and they have all the committees, they will not investigate

them. If it's Democrats with the corruption, they will give them a colonoscopy every day. Just like when the Democrats had the committees, they gave Trump a colonoscopy every day, as well as other Republicans, and

said nothing about the corruption on the side of their aisle. Thus my motto stands. They all suck. 31 trillion says so. The Republicans who said they care about spending, they're signing off on this gargantuan spending bill also. They lied. And of course, the other side, the Marxist party,

the control freak party, just doesn't stop. And thank the Lord, the Republicans. got the house at least to stop them dead in their tracks. Who knows what Marxist Biden would do in 2023 if he had real power, much more power. Holy crap. 50% tax rates federally. Probably count the flushes of your toilet and charge you if you go over too much. By the way, that wasn't sarcasm. they're that bad. They've proven it. So anyway, whatever happens, happens.

You know what I think of Trump? I hope he just goes away. The Republicans need to have a better steward, better stalwart with better messages, and not being a wimp. Questioning elections, that's being a wimp. That's being a wimp. Georgia was lost because of him.

Georgia was just lost again because of him. he lost the presidential election because of him needs somebody great to come in. Somebody wake up Ronald Reagan. Not kidding. Because we're on the verge kids. These corrupt people in both parties are killing us. And as we said, and we don't think this is sarcasm either.

We think they're cursing each other out in front of the camera and laughing their arses off behind the camera. Go look at some of the net worths of these people. that make 180,000 a year. And the media can't report the Republicans that are corrupt because then they'd have to report the other side that's corrupt, because they know they're all corrupt. And that's my take.

Anyway, we really hope, God bless him. We hope Trump stands down, goes back to running his hotels and golf courses and whatever else he does and lives happily ever after. And our prediction is he won't make it to the primary, but that's just a prediction. Up next, we'll figure it out. This is the one only investors, Ed. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step, closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. So, uh, let me give you a few other things that are weighing on stocks. Of course, look, I think we're going into a good

session. I think the job market is going to soften pretty good. We've already told you about the plunge in savings rates, the skyrocketing credit card usage that is very, very worrisome. But there's also the competition for money. Let me give you an example. The S&P 500 dividend yield right now is approximately 1.67 percent. On the S&P, you got to be a lot of that? The one-year yield, if you buy a one-year treasury note right now, is over 4.6%. Riskless. That's competition for money. Going out further, the 10-year, you can get 3.6 on your money. And what that does is locks you in longer versus the one year at 4-6 and change, which is higher than the 10-year, which, by the way, is not good. it locks you in versus the one year you're out and whatever the yield is in one year you have to

redo it the two-year yield if memory well I'm just going to look at it while I got you is it 4.26% again versus 1.6 so you can lock in for two years right now just remember risk glist. And I know it's government securities, and I know you know what I think about the government and debt, but if they ever default on this, it's all over anyhow. The five-year yield, and by the way, again, competition for money. The five-year yield is at 3.7%. So it'd better go to the five-year than the 10-year. Two-year better than the five-year, but again, you lose it in two years. You get your money out and you get your return. So competition for money is a problem. Besides, if the economy softens, listen how it works. Earning soften. Valuations are higher. Stock prices come lower.

It's a simple toxic cocktail of how bare markets work. And we're explaining it in simple form. As I said to a year ago when we're in cash, we're getting zero on our money. Now we're getting threes plus and probably going higher because the Fed's going to raise rates again. So that's another thing we're watching very closely. And if we lose the job market, that'll be the problem. You don't want to lose the job market. Next, the Senate passed a $858 billion defense bill.

I just want to make note that it was $320 billion defense bill in the year 2000. Just a note. Just a note. What else? Hey, great. The Wall Street Journal, a guy named Joseph Sternberg. How the Federal Reserve fed the FBI. F-TX belt-down. Central

Banker said easy money would last forever. Too bad retail investors took them at their word. All of a sudden, the op-eds are coming out now that we told you about two years ago. The Central Bank created the bubbles. Now we're being told the Central Bank created the bubbles. No crap, Sherlock.

So just again, we were just so far in front of it, it's not even funny. Now all the geniuses are coming out of the woodwork. Other news, Mr. FTX is going to be extradited here real soon.

My thought process is, I believe everybody who lost their life savings are close, should be allowed to get in a room with him with no security guards and the door locked. Is that mean?

I was just thinking because I read a story about one guy who had $2 million, his whole life savings with this guy, and he stole it all, and it's never going to be recovered. Imagine if you have a net worth of $2 million and it's all gone, how do you sleep? How do you eat? How do you function? And what if you're in your 70s? This is what this piece of crap did. We really get into the feeling how people feel. feel. And I'm thinking, my goodness gracious, I got to believe some of these people want to get in the room and just beat the hell out of this guy. And I'm not a violent guy, but I'm just thinking about this today. There's a ton of people that lost all their money because it was stolen by that guy. Go look at him. This is a shoveled piece of crap that somehow was able to talk people into, give a a oodles of money. I can't tell you how depressing it is to know there's a lot of people that just lost their life savings and they're never getting it back. On that sour note, you'll have a great evening drive carefully. Maybe tomorrow will be a better day. When you get

home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. Happy holidays. He will be saying that all week. And in case, we haven't thanked you enough. Thanks for joining us. We hope we're helping. Good night, all. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a 300.

annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.