Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES [05.28.2024]
Episode Date: May 28, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.
Thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Tuesday.
It's May 28th.
It's 2024.
And we have a lot to cover.
Serious talk about everything that affects you.
And we mean everything.
We will do the markets big time today.
the economy, the Morlocks in D.C.
And anything else we can think of.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X,
and podcast apps.
And if you don't follow us, you should.
And if you want to email us, just be nice.
Be nice. Be respectful.
It's all good.
Thanks for joining.
Okay. We figured we put it in the order that we think you'd have an interest in.
We have no clue why. We know there was news about Elon Musk raising $6 billion for something, artificial intelligence.
I don't know. All I can tell you at the close today, NVIDIA, was up, let me get the right number.
I'm trying to get the right number here.
I think I can get the right number.
76 bucks, let's call it.
7%.
Now, as you know, we bought InVidia in January at 505, sold it on the big reversal day.
After the big reversal day, the day after.
We were in it before earnings and sold it.
It gapped up on Thursday.
On Friday, we bought it back.
And beats the hell out of us why it would be up so big today.
but it was, we'll call it pure luck.
It has nothing to do with skill on that,
except a big, as we told you on Thursday.
Adam did the show on Friday.
We thank Adam for doing the show.
Thursday was a breakaway gap.
We did not buy it on Thursday.
On Friday, it opened a little down, started moving,
and we took our position again.
So we're in the video right now,
and it was a very, very good day.
Where it goes, we have no idea.
How long it goes, we have no idea.
how far it goes, we have no idea. In turn, what it did was it had some, some sympathy plays.
What do we mean by sympathy plays? Well, if the semiconductors as a group are strong, well, the
semiconductors, not all are going to go higher. Some better, some worse. But leave no doubt today was
the Nvidia day. They lifted up AMD today, which is a very weak name to the tune of five and change.
They lifted, and by the way, back above the 50-day moving average, but has a lot of work to do.
They lifted arm holdings today, 9% on some pretty darn good volume, back above the 50-day moving average.
that's going to be of help.
They lifted up micron,
and not much,
two and a half percent,
volume wasn't that great.
And just lift ASML holdings
up three and three quarters percent today,
rounding out what we call a base,
hopefully something comes of it.
Broadcom was only up four bucks,
but traces out pretty well.
The semi-conductors were up 96.
In turn, it had the now,
NASDAQ up 99.
And by the way, what I love most about this market,
and we don't make this up, we tell you like it is,
if we tell you the NASDAQ went up,
hmm, 20 points in the last minute,
would you trust us?
It basically did.
NASDAQ up 99.
That said, advanced declines were 17 to 24 on the NASDAQ.
Just stating, 17 to 24 on the NASDAQ.
That said, a lot of the small, the midcaps and not so mid-cap, but even more than that, we're down on the day.
A lot of weakness and a lot of tech today.
What with Envidi up 76?
Yeah.
And then there's another part of the equation that I think is of noteworthy.
and let's get right into it and it's of import
and let me repeat again we don't know what it's going to lead to
and let me repeat at the end of the day
I'm not making this up in the last minute they rallied the Dow
55 points
in the last minute today
they rallied the Dow 55 points
did I tell you they rallied the Dow 55 points in the last
minute, it was still down 216 points on the day. Coming into today, what have we been telling you?
Listen carefully. The transports very weak. They were down another 87 today. A bunch of Dow stocks
very weak. Well, it was down 216 points today. The good news is at one time today, it was down
360 until they juiced it at the end of the day. For the most part. Yeah. Weakening defense stocks,
weakening payroll stocks, that's your ADP and paychecks, weakening your managed care
stocks, weakening your waste management stocks, weakening your hotel stocks. Listen up. We already mentioned
transports weakening insurance stocks weakening medical stocks and I saved one for last the big
banks there's something called the XLF it's the S&P Financial Select Sector Index it's
big banks and some other big stuff it finished not the end of the world but
starting to break below the 50-day moving average.
Now, again, notwithstanding a good strong close today,
the Dow was down 216, and that's been the weak area.
So we're letting you know if I had to put a title on this market right here,
negative divergences continue.
That said, semiconductors,
led by Nvidia and others.
We mentioned Arm back above the 50-day ASML.
We mentioned Micron.
And there's other tech that's strong based on the AI thing.
We're talking Dell and Qualcomm, things like that.
The gold miners and gold, we told you last week,
well, Adam did the show Friday, but I've got to tell you, on Thursday,
I was not liking the way the pullback was going.
It was harsher than I want to see.
Bounce them today.
Still jury still out.
Silver, much stronger than gold near term.
You can just go look at the SLV versus the GLD.
Oils bounce today.
The same oil names that are strong remain strong.
most of them blah.
Most of them sloppy.
Most of them would stay away from.
The 10-year yield.
Did not like what it did today.
And maybe it's just one day.
When you have a chance, go take a look.
Ten-year yield.
Not the bond, the yield.
Look like it's turning up here.
We don't want to see interest rates higher.
And oil prices may be
turning up also. Not so sure oil prices and the 10-year yield heading north will be good. We'll see.
But just to let you know again, if I titled the show today, it would be negative divergences,
continue, then I'd throw in, fortunately, a good close, because it was getting some ugly
until the end of the day
and got a little defense
by the end of the day.
We'll see what happens.
Tomorrow is another day.
But the big story of the day
and again,
NVIDIA was up
$76 bucks.
The breakaway gap we told you about
on Thursday
working.
How far? Don't know.
How long? Don't know.
Leave no doubt.
The market caps now up to $2.8 trillion.
We wonder how much that can go.
That said, it didn't stop it today.
We've been getting questions, Gary, so that's my music.
We'll do the questions in a moment.
Thanks to being here.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only Investors Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
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Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research.
Jake Embatta, we discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM Research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI,
coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.
It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Yes.
building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point when it will mature.
Right?
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with Conton?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion.
of quality programming with Gary
called bomb it doesn't get better than this
so welcome once again to
Investors Edge so we got a
really good question Gary
you bought NVIDI at 505 originally
why aren't you sticking with it
if you believe in the story
great question
let me be clear and concise about the answer
our job
here that
keeps us in pretty good stead is to pay attention what the market is doing at any given moment in time.
In real time.
The two most important words, actually three, in real time.
At any given time in real time, there are things that happen, things that go on that tell you, hey, you may just want to take it.
and even though the numbers are strong as all heck,
how many stocks in the last 25 years
had the greatest of numbers and strong as all heck
and topped out on their strongest numbers reported?
Well, the answer is a ton of them.
Think about it.
That's how great stocks do eventually top out
is when the market telegraphs,
it's the best numbers they're going to be.
that's all
so let's work through nvita
on march 8th
it opened at 974
and on monstrous volume
the biggest volume we have seen
114 million actually there was one more
uh i think a million shares more than that
it was a hundred dollar
reversal
100 dollars
one of the worst we've ever seen
we sold the next day
rallied up a little bit
never got past the highs
but you know what happened afterwards
it dropped over a hundred dollars
lower than when we sold
so think about that
if we didn't sell
that means we would have had to
stick with something
that was a breaking down
breaking down badly on volume with the market,
breaking the 50 day, closing on a Friday at the lows of the day,
and it would have knocked my original buy way, way down,
and in real time,
I would suggest to you I would have been selling $100 lower on April 19th.
And then, what if it didn't come back?
Huh.
what if it just kept going lower what if nVIDIA announced well guess what there are a lot of double orders
and triple orders and uh we're going to have too many chips and we're going to have to work through them
so we're going to lower on numbers and half and the stock drops all the way back to 500 giving it all
back what if that happened that's the answer to your question in real time it's so
so easy to look backwards. It really is. But in real time, the stock was getting smacked to smithereens,
and it was one of the good names. It was one of the stronger names. Others much worse.
You already knew about, and we always been talking about, how many technology stocks
have been trashed over the last few months
while the NASDAQ was at new yearly highs.
Palo Alto Networks, Service Now, Checkpoint, Adobe,
other tech, and others in growth like Draft Kings and Uber and Lyft,
and Palantir, one of the most overhyped, and Shopify,
Into It just croaked the other day.
snowflake square the list goes on and on in real time so great question it is a great question
the last stock the longest stock i held in many a moon we had visa for three years and i think we made
don't quote me on this but I think I'm close
three and a half times
this was a while back
and what you have to realize
think about what we've gone through
since 19
COVID the COVID crash
the Fed printing nine trillion bucks
raising everything and the meme stocks going
ape crap to the upside
and then you had the 21 bare market where everything
got crippled and even the big stuff came down
where
the average leading stock of the prior bull went down 70%.
You know that, right?
And a lot of them are still down 50% plus from those highs of 21 in real time.
So I will tell you this flatly, if Nvidia never acted the way it did up at the highs.
We would have kept it.
Our goal is to hold great stocks as much as we can, as long as we can.
But that ain't easy.
And I know our industry is full of diversified portfolios.
Don't sell even in a bare market.
Well, I can tell you, flat out, not kidding.
In the past, we have brought in accounts where stocks are down 70, 80, 90%.
But don't worry, it's only a small position in your account.
Really?
So let's just keep it.
So just let you know, in real time, this is tough.
And as we said, we bought it back on Friday, and we're up, I think, $100 bucks already.
Yeah, about $100 bucks already.
I hope we can hold it for three years.
Why?
Because we're going to make a hell of a lot of money.
But that'll be the market deciding, not us.
Yeah, I'll almost 100 bucks.
The market will decide for us.
None of us know where the market's going.
No one knows where it's going to be at the end of this year.
Nobody knows what the leaders of 2025 are going to be.
What's going to be the laggards?
We just try to stay in gear and stay out of the way of trouble.
Let me give you a good one.
Ever see this thing Celsius?
It's the drink at the supermarket, the Celsius brand.
The stock could be acting pretty decent.
Strong growth.
It was down 13% today with a big, gigantic, ugly top in it.
An analyst came out and said sequentially,
it's not going to be looking so as good as it was.
We didn't own it.
Imagine if we did.
Up next, we'll keep going through that.
We got lots more on the market,
and then we'll whine and complain about something.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Hello, hello.
I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Embatta.
We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum,
or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.
It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Yes.
Building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience the culture of building hard things that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point when it will mature.
Right?
Yeah.
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with Conta?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large.
large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com
slash quantum. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub delivery is looking for
ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries. When you become a partner, you and your
staff will deliver packages to customers in your area on a schedule that works for you. With each
package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business. Plus, Amazon Hub
delivery makes it easy to get started. There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term
contracts required.
Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash hub delivery.
That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.
Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
It's stockup savings time now through March 31st.
Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times of points.
Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor,
Oiraida, Silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin.
Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings.
Stack up those rewards to save even.
more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick
up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.
We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Let me pick one out.
that I think most of you have heard of.
I think I'm going to pick one out
that I think most of you have heard of.
You all know what Roku is, right?
Roku is this entertainment device
that allows you to put all these other streamings on there.
Roku.
And it's been talked about,
propped, great, wonderful, what a gizmo.
It topped out at $490 in 21.
It's $56 today.
It's a great story.
I have it.
We're just making a little point.
Boeing.
That's a good company?
Well, we think.
It hit a high of 441.
in February of 19 and unfortunately there were two Boeing aircraft crashes I believe we're
Indonesia somewhere else and not to shrug that off it's gone from 441 to 175 so in real time
what do you do it's Boeing what is that 60% since 19
Tesla
400 and change
the high
414 in November 21
it's 176 today
you know what they said when it was 414
it's going to 1,000
the leader of
and a lot more to come
and maybe that's true going forward
but in real time
414 to 17
And we found out way down the road.
Remember, bad news usually comes after the stocks already in bad shape.
The bad news is the industry.
If less and less people want to buy the cars of electric vehicles,
even though you're getting taxpayer dollars to buy them, Tesla.
Think Home Depot is a good company?
Well, this is not a big drop, but it's down 22.
percent from December of 21 still, but still 22 percent, not the end of the world.
So we're just making the point on answering the question in real time.
Everything's easy.
Looking backwards, I'm the greatest Monday morning quarterback in history.
I F-bom myself big time in my little diary here on things I do right and things I do wrong.
even when I do right
I F-bomb myself
I should have been better
so just let you know
in real time
I would have loved to never
have sold NVIDIA
the good news is by my rules
the first one
we're up in the 70s
and in a day
call it skill call it luck
we're up
I think 9% in a day
on this one
And again, wish I never had a sell.
Oh, and by the way, I wish I didn't sell before the earnings.
We had bought some, made some hay, and then was giving it almost all back and said,
screw this.
In real time, we don't know what NVIDE is going to do on earnings.
We know they're supposed to be good.
We know they're supposed to be strong based on guidance, but what if?
and what if the stock was down
$100 bucks on earnings?
In real time.
Moral of the story, ladies and gentlemen.
Next, we were asked about GameStop.
They did the secondary offering.
It was up 25% today.
Good luck.
It's still, just remember,
I got a trading in the aftermarket at 23.
It was $64.83 about
business days ago on the open.
Three words.
pick your poison and you get to decide. Remember, we don't tell you what to do. We tell you what we think.
And you decide. We're hoping you're working at this. Hope you get this. It's not easy. It is a lot of hard work.
In real time. Tomorrow is another day. Of note. Nice little comeback at the close thing.
By the way, in case you don't know how crazy today was with NVIDIA leading the way,
the NASDAQ today hit 7,000, let me make sure, 17,332 early in the day,
was up 112.
It went all the way down to 16-917, back to almost flat.
at 2.30 and finished up 99.
Semai is leading the way.
To be watched.
Today was one of those days.
They better keep them up, and they did.
And good comeback at the end of the day.
With the Dow down 216 and the transports down 87, very weak.
And we'll see if that changes.
I do want to again mention the gold.
A little more harsh of a pullback than we would like to see, but nice little bounce today, and silver, stronger than gold.
The second.
In real time.
Want to bring up draft kings.
What's the matter with draft kings?
Well, the stock is now in a bearish phase.
By the way, it's gone from 49.57 to 3660 in the last seven, eight weeks.
What is that about?
13 bucks on 49.
Want to add that up?
26, 27%.
In real time, I bring that up because highly touted.
Well, we make fun of it a little bit.
Wish I started the company.
They're just a great bookie.
Their payouts are from losers.
Good on them.
Because we're now the great gambling society.
Uber, Lyft, bare markets.
They were in shape.
We'd just let you know in real time.
And you never know what's great turns bad.
What's bad turns great.
We just let the market dictate that.
And we'll see how it goes.
Could have been a lot worse today.
Could have been better.
More deterioration in certain areas.
But I will repeat again.
I liked how we finished a little bit today.
I'll be doing our scans after we're done with radio.
In the news, did anybody see the interview with Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who's the Transportation Secretary now?
I've never met him, don't know him.
I'm sure he's a nice man.
Got nothing against him personally.
I think he's just another political hack.
he was on TV
and in a random act of journalism by the anchor
gave it to him a little bit
that in three years
the administration has
spent 7.5 billion of our tax dollars
for charging stations for electric vehicles
they've only built
seven
charging stations now I'm not
making this up. You would think I would be. Nah, can't be. $7.5 billion and there's only seven or eight
charging stations in three years? I was not taken aback by what he said to the answer, which was a
bunch of bull crap. I was more on how we said it. Up next, I'll explain. Thanks for being here.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladys.
Well, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna.
And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale.
Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side.
For example.
If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customers,
service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind.
If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive
today, with the goal of being 70% more productive.
Yeah.
Wow.
So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it.
We say, you can leverage what we did.
We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process,
because the biggest change is not technology.
is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks.
Want to earn extra income for your business?
Amazon Hub Delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries.
When you become a partner, you and your staff will deliver packages to customers in your area
on a schedule that works for you.
With each package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business.
Plus, Amazon Hub delivery makes it easy to get started.
There's no upfront.
Costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required.
Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash hub delivery.
That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.
Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
It's stockup savings time now through March 31st.
Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points.
Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor,
ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Son, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin.
Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings.
Savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.
You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Bester's Edge with Gary Kulp.
So, if you have a chance, you can Google the interview where he answered.
the question about how is it possible that they can spend 7.5 billion of our tax dollars for
electric vehicle charging stations and in three years there's only seven or eight and you
you really would hope that the anchor i believe it's the woman on cbs would say to him
w t blank but she can't i want you to go watch him because his not what he said which was just a bunch
a crap. It was how he said it. No emotion, no passion, about $7.5 billion, our tax dollars.
Imagine if I got my hands on that $7.5 billion, what I would be able to do with it for the
children, at-risk children, in some of the rougher times.
for communities around the country.
Imagine what I, Gary, would be able to do.
Yet he sat there, just a bunch of bull crap,
but how he said it.
And therein lies the problem.
They don't give a freaking crap.
They have made the debt and deficits
and spending numbers and size of government
so large that $7.5 billion
is a freaking footnote to the socialist Marxist control freaks that should be drummed out of office
and go to the dustbin of whatever the hell they want to do with the rest of their lives
except to use our treasure and waste it.
Go watch it.
And you'll just, well, you know, kind of,
infrastructure and this and that, and this and that.
They turned 7.5 billion of our precious tax dollars into a freaking footnote.
To me, that was in the news.
For starters, in the news.
Speaking of another Marxist socialist,
always been wrong control freak in D.C., Janet Yellen,
says has the nerve, has the grapefruits to state that government needs to raise more revenue.
Every year we're sending them more and more record tax dollars.
And they're saying that they don't have enough.
They raise federal spending just going back the year before COVID from $4.4 trillion.
into the sevens, mid-sevens, but they don't have enough revenue.
It has nothing to do with their freaking out of control spending and increase in the size, scope, spending and debt of this government.
We need more revenues.
This woman should be fired, her butt should be out.
she is not a defendant
she is supposed to defend our treasure
and she is the worst I have ever seen
and we have had some bad treasury secretaries
by the way she has been one calling for a
global wealth tax
which by the way
I will hand it to the administration
they said no to it
She was one of the original experimenters.
Is that a word?
With Bernanke.
She worked with him, for him, whatever.
On the original, let's print money to save our buddies on Wall Street
that committed all that massive fraud, causing the financial house to almost come to a close in 2008.
But she needs to lift revenue.
Just remember, these miseries can't even turn on a light bulb in DC without our tax dollars.
They earn no money.
They're nothing but a Hoover vacuum, sucking us dry.
Ladies and gentlemen.
And lastly, in the news, I'm sure you've read about this golfer.
I watch golf big time on TV, and I remember when he,
He won his first tournament and I remember he was peppered with questions about his mental
health.
He committed suicide in case you do not know.
You can go read about it.
There was a movie, I don't know which one it was, but there was a line in the movie about
somebody who took their own lives about what would get you to the point, oh, somebody
was thinking about it and was saved.
What would get you to the point where you thought that was your only, you know, that was
your only choice. Imagine this man top 50 golfer in the world, won twice recently. Obviously,
that means he's got some wealth, was going to get married, had a fiancé, by all, everything
we've seen, a wonderful family that backed him and backed him and was with him and just everybody
trying to surround him and hug him. And yet he still did. Just little things that I'm
always remembering and thinking about, maybe all of us should, about how precious life is,
and that just because you got wealth, success, love, there are a lot of people with mental health
issues a lot. And I don't know what the answer to it is. Boy, I was in New York City just now and you
should see some mental health issues on the subway. And by the way, that's not a joke. So I just wanted
to bring this up because, man, oh man, make sure your loved ones know how much you do love them,
how much you are with them. You have a great evening. Drive carefully. And when you get home,
do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you
hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Have a great one all.
Thanks for joining us. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.
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