Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Normal pullback [11.16.2023]
Episode Date: November 16, 2023garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
I think it's Thursday.
I think it's the 16th of November.
Next Thursday's Thanksgiving.
It's early this year.
So Thursday will be Best of Gary.
And Friday, I believe, will be Best of Gary also because I think it's a half day in the market.
I got to double check.
I think that's, yes, that's what I'm pretty sure.
Anyway, hope you had a good day.
I want to thank Adam for doing the show yesterday.
In case you don't know, we had the, I think it's the 20th.
It may be the 19th.
I think it was the 20th.
years ago when I lived in South Florida
my family is one of the first
wish granters for Make a Wish.
It was mid-80s, I think,
and I just, I don't know how to explain it,
fell in love with doing things for people
that are in need.
We gave a trip to Disney World,
everything paid for with the
family for two girls that did not have long. Both had a, I don't remember exactly what the
illness was, but it was not good. And then we started doing yearly Halloween and Christmas
parties at Jackson Memorial Hospital. And then we moved up to Orlando and we started doing
birthdays at the Coalition for the Homeless. Every month, any kid that had a birthday, we would do a
birthday party. And then I met Gary Kane, who just retired, great influence on my life. And I believe
I met him in a Rotary Club meeting. And he asked me to join the Boys and Girls Clubs of Central
Florida and I'm pretty sure the conversation went so what do you do for Thanksgiving he goes
what do you mean I go what do you do for the kids Thanksgiving well we started the Colpom
family dinner and we've served every year anywhere last night was only about 250 I think they've
tailored it down a little bit but usually be of 300 we topped out at 400 but boy but that was a pain in the
career. And it's just one of those great evenings. And the kids, a lot of these kids, would not have a
Thanksgiving. It's the best way I can put it. And for a little bit of cake out of my pocket,
my family's pocket, you've got to see these kids and how much they enjoy the evening.
and it's just something we just absolutely love doing.
So we always say to you, if you have the ability,
and it doesn't have to be big,
just think maybe do something for somebody you need absolutely nothing from.
So we did it last night.
It was a very good evening.
And man, they really nailed it and got it down
as far as the delivery of it
and bringing the kids in and sending them home
and all that funky stuff.
So that was last night.
Okay.
We segue.
I want to start.
We think, we believe, the best thing we do here and for ourselves and our peeps is what not to be invested in.
We have told you time and time again, we're saying we're right to the market, by the way.
we have told you time and time again and we don't pull any punches we don't think there is anybody on this earth
anybody on this earth and we've proven it to you throughout the years on the ability to have the
recognition of tops and bearish phases of unknown price and time.
Because when something tops out, you really don't know how bad it's going to get.
And I bring this up now because the market just put in a decent low.
The market as a whole.
And there's differing levels.
There's some leadership, new yearly.
highs. There's something in between. And then there's a lot of crap that was so weighed down that are
bouncing some. But then there's the other part of the equation that we're just so happy about.
And we hope you listened. And we keep notes. I have one of these, what do they call it,
at a glance. You pay like 30 bucks. This is a big thing. And it's your write notes in it and stuff
like that, you get it every year. It's like a calendar book. And in the notes four weeks ago,
and I'm very good, very writing down the notes, I put down the words, geez, quite a few oil
stocks are topping out. That's what I wrote. That was weeks ago. So the first thing out of me,
you, hey, just letting you know that there's a bunch of oil stocks topping out.
Not sure what it means, but let's keep on watch.
Why, if more and more start topping out, oil can start entering a bearish phase.
Because as we've explained to you and simplified for you, if 100 stocks are in an uptrend,
that means you're in a darn good uptrend.
If 100 are in a downtrend, look out below.
But of course, we break things up.
Sectors, stocks, countries, commodities, indices.
And while that was going on, there was some areas of oils that were actually decent in shape.
And actually to this day, hanging in there pretty well.
Some pipelines.
Oil pipelines, a symbol like FRO.
That's pulled back, but it's hanging in here.
And one could say that's still in shape.
TK tankers, another pipeline, though that may be looking like it's rolling over.
That said.
So we use words topy, topping, topped.
Toppy means, uh-oh.
Topping means, oh, it's getting there.
Top means it's a goner.
and all we can tell you is this started four or five weeks ago when we started telling you this
and you never know how it would play out but all we know is as we always say to you little by little
piece by piece inch by inch name by name they started breaking them down and breaking them down
damn badly and then they started to get the big guys and then they started to get the big guys and then they
to get the big institutional names.
And then, of course, you can just watch the three ETSs,
which is XLE for the big XOP,
for the Explorers and OYH for the services,
all topping out and topping out badly.
And of course, there's got to be a rhyme and a reason.
It's because oil price is topped out.
And we're just letting you know.
This second, oil stocks are now in a definable
downtrend of unknown price and time with some in real bad shape.
Some have been absolutely smoked.
Something like a Chevron.
By the way, Chevron closed at a new yearly load today.
So we're just letting you know, we're thrilled.
And we hope you listen.
We've owned no oils.
We had some oils transferred in.
I think we started selling them.
They just came in like two weeks.
ago we were selling them boom left and right and of course that can change and we know that
OPEC can announce tonight a crap load of production cups because they're pissed off oil prices
are tanking by the way they dropped another three dollars and seventy cents today it's a huge drop
we do know there's geopolitical stuff going on we don't know why oil prices are dropping like they are
I hope it has nothing to do with economies and demand.
We're just letting you know, they're dropping.
So while the market puts in a low, we're telling you what's putting in a high.
And guess what?
The roadmap worked again.
The identifying marks that we talked to you about worked again.
The timing of markets.
worked again, even though you can't time the markets. That's what they tell us, and we keep
proving them to be doofuses, or just people that don't work very hard at it. So that's the oils.
Up next, what else do I got for you today? Hope you're listening. This is the one only
investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio
Show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living,
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portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services
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You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
So, here's the next thing I want to point out about the markets.
Before this recent low, which got confirmed November 1st,
we had told you 80% of stocks were in what we called definable downtrends.
And the first thing we said was housing looks like the first.
first thing to come out of the downtrend. And it's been the case to the point where Pulte
Homes and Toll Brothers are at near New Yearly highs already. But then you have the rest.
And that 80%, most everything rallied up some. The floor was lifted. But, and will capitalize
and bold the word but if a stock is dropped from a hundred down to 40 and rallied up and there
are some that have done this rallied up to 48 20% in weeks because that's what happened short
covering we'll get those type of rallies a bunch of things we're already seeing peter out as they rallied
into definable resistance areas, supply of stock, or downward trending moving averages.
So we're just letting you know, I would not be calling this an end-all be-all rally.
Now, there's new highs. There's not a ton. It's in tech, software.
a smattering of other things.
Gee, that's what we had beforehand, but with improvement.
So just letting you know, we'll take it day by day.
Indecees still acting decent, though they're starting to already hit these small and midcaps.
When you have a chance, I want you to go look tonight at the Russell 2000 chart.
And I want you to see where it hit yesterday and reversed badly.
The longer term, 200 day moving average, had another rough day today.
So that nascent move off the lows and that real strong one and a half day move,
hit the wall.
Can it come on again?
Absolutely.
Think there's more work to do.
we are concentrating our bucks on some mega cap names and the bigger indices.
That's how we're looking at this and we'll see if more and more things show up.
Today, more and more things showed up on the yucky side.
What do I got for you?
Number one, Walmart.
And we don't usually report earnings in the news and stuff, but sometimes you got to.
So Walmart reports numbers, and they weren't, you know, Walmart doesn't really grow big anymore because they do $600 billion in business.
Let's see, $153.3.410, $4.70, you know like $630 billion in business.
Well, Walmart today was down 8%.
That's a big move down for a Walmart, down 1373.
Just the earnings were up 2% revenues up 5, but that's kind of low.
like normal for them these days. I guess they said something about this, that, and the other thing,
and that pissed that, pissed the stock off, but really in effect much, except Costco was down 18 today.
Costco just broke out. Beautiful breakout. I could have bought it, and I didn't. And I will tell you,
last night, I wrote down some words about why the heck didn't I buy Costco? The move gave the whole move
back today. I feel much better.
Lulu Lemon just broke out, gave it all back
today. Decker's
Outdoor. Gave back
19 bucks today. The whole
retail complex smoked
today. They were hitting Amazon good early on the
news, but it bounced back because
I wouldn't equate Amazon with Walmart.
Cisco in the Dow.
Finish down $5.50.
That's big for a Cisco.
It was down at, hmm, was down seven bucks at one time.
But they broke that stock.
Palo Alto Networks, one of these important software names, down 5.5% today, down 14 bucks on their earnings.
Alibaba.
What have we told you about China stocks?
We're staying away.
Alibaba down 9% today.
8 bucks to $79 on their numbers.
And that affected other China names.
And we're just staying away.
Simple as that.
Advanced declines today, 1623 on the New York, 1427 on the NASDAQ.
So whatever we report to you on the indices, the underbelly, not that great.
Tomorrow's another day.
Simple as that.
We're just letting you know.
because we saw some people talking about how bullish they are
and as I do my scans I'm like, wait a minute,
they're bullish?
On what?
And there's some bullish stocks.
And there's stocks that have come up.
But are they in uptrends or just recovery?
We want definable strength in uptrens
and they just aren't any yet.
Just what was there.
with a few new names.
So that's a little bit of the market. Dow was down 45, S&P up five.
And let me just say this. At one time today, Dow was down 150, and the NASDAQ was down 50.
NASDAQ up 10, NASDAQ 100, up 16. Transports down 150.
And when it comes to the Dow, excuse me, the NASDAQ, Microsoft, up six and a half today, new all-time high.
Adobe
Up 6 and 3 quarters
Axwell
Facebook
I don't know what the news was early
But they had this stock down
Almost seven bucks early
And finished up a buck and a half
That's what you love seeing
We love when leading stocks
Are down big in the morning
And finish up
You know what that's called?
Washing away sellers
great stocks have the ability to wash out sellers during the day.
And we saw that today in Amazon, was down like three and a half bucks, which is big for an Amazon,
was only down 40 cents, and Facebook.
Tomorrow's another day, as we always say.
Just mushy, gold, better.
you know what
nothing really stands out
except some of the big tech
Microsoft's in the Dow
Apple
it's now back to Bing
persistent Apple
since it's low
and it's 1% drop in sales
up next
we'll keep going
this is the one only investors
edge
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for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than
competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million
pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com
Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium
benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer
to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.
access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading
condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk
right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once,
and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
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You're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased.
with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbub
comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him and walk once again
to Investors Edge by the way I have bias when it comes to the market I have bias
being a very good technician I loved the pattern that Intel was tracing out but I'm not
buying Intel. Their earnings are terrible. The sales are terrible. We know they're saying things
are going to be better, but they've said that before, and it never worked out. Stock had a beautiful
move on Tuesday, moving above 39 bucks. Got an upgrade today. It was up two and three quarters
to 4334. I can't do like the first Superman movie where when Lois Lane dies, he flies backwards
around the earth, turning back time.
But I always ask myself, if I could turn back time, would I have bought it?
And you know what the answer was?
No.
I still wouldn't have bought it.
There's another one in semiconductors that acts great.
Micron.
But why the hell am I going to buy a stock with their sales?
Forget the earnings.
Down 47% year over year.
That's four quarters ago.
53% 3 quarters ago, 57% 2 quarters ago.
Last quarter, 40 cents.
And they lost in the last three quarters, let's see, $3.30, $4.40.
Just the last three quarters.
$4.40.
Yeah.
Oh, $5 billion they lost.
Why the hell would I buy that?
Well, the stock's acting great.
The institutions are in there.
They see something.
I don't know.
Just so you know, they're into DRAMs,
and DRAM prices can move back up and down.
Who knows what the reason is.
All I know is, I have a bias.
And as you know, I have a big bias also in buying hunks of junk.
And man, oh man.
Talk about hunks of junk the last two, three years,
where stocks got destroyed.
I noticed one today.
symbol
HNRA
It's called
HNR acquisition
I see no news on it
It's a SPAC
So they have not done anything
With anybody as of yet
It came out at 10 bucks
In 22
And the stock just does nothing
Out of nowhere
A few days ago
Two weeks ago went to 14
Finish back at 10
It was
10 bucks to start this week.
Closed at $3 today.
It's only down 70%.
You want to play that bull crap?
Have fun!
I got to tell you.
They're so lucky I'm not running the SEC.
God bless our regulators.
I think they got their hands full.
There's been so much jacanery with these spacks,
I can't even begin to tell you.
Crummy companies, massive insider selling.
You name the corrupt.
they did it with these SPACs. And remember what we've told you here. I started in the business at a penny stock firm. You know, we did. We did things called blind pools. Guess what these SPACs are, blind pools. All you're doing is creating an entity and then merging a company into it instead of going public. These dirt bags are no better than when I start in the business and the penny stock business. But they're at the big, oh, my goodness gracious.
They're at the big investment banking firms.
Oh, they can't do anything.
Oh, they're great.
They're fabulous people.
Yeah, that's right.
Sure, fine.
Anyway, HNRA, I have no news.
I can't even, I see no news.
I don't think they merge with anybody.
It's down 70% in one, two, three days.
Upsi.
What else did I see?
I don't know why, but the auto dealers are croaking.
Any of you in the auto dealer business?
Auto dealer stocks got hammered today.
Absolutely smoke today. You know what else is getting? Just noticing this. ADP and paychecks. Don't like the way they're acting. That's the job market. I'm watching that bad boy too. Anyway, that's a little bit of today. The markets, the good news is oil prices down 370 today. Holy crap. I noticed,
The price at the pump here when I went this morning for regular was $3.7.
The $89 was $3.40.
It's going to be lower again.
And the 10-year today down 0.90 to 4.445.
That's good stuff.
Remember what we've told you fundamentally.
Forget the stock market for a second.
oil prices tanking?
Terrific.
Truckers, Uber, Lyft, cruise lines, airlines, biggest expenses, heading straight down, unless they hedged at higher prices.
And 10-year yield, 5% down to 4.45.
That means the mortgage business is going to pick up to a certain extent.
and that means to get a mortgage, a little more affordable.
We'd like to see more.
But darn good start.
Now, of course, if it's signifying big trouble economic-wise, remember, they will drop in a bad recession.
Why?
Demand.
So that's something we'll watch closely.
because as you know, who's been the loudest voice on too much debt by the consumer, credit card usage at a record, savings rates have plunged, one-two punch, we'll let you know.
We said two months ago that we thought the economy was on the ledge and if we lose jobs, it can be in trouble.
We have not lost jobs yet, the job market. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
we don't lose the job market.
In the news, oh, the most important news today, Snoop Dog is giving up weed.
I just want to let you know.
I actually think that's great news.
You know why?
Because he's one hell of an influence on kids smoking weed.
He's glorified it.
He's the weed man.
And you know what we think a weed.
New York City should just change their name to the big bong hit.
It just smells like a bong.
Anywhere you walk.
Anyway, Snoop Dog.
Yay.
And then, as you know, we've been covering Israel, the Middle East.
And I now have to cover bin Laden.
Didn't Robert O'Neill shoot him dead?
many years ago and they buried him in the sea?
How does bin Laden come up?
And why do I have to bring it up?
Well, just remember, everything we do here matters
because it deals with people this country that run the country,
I think.
We're the economy.
And the more people that are,
are baffling or insane or nuts, not so great.
We'll get into that in a couple of minutes.
But I don't have any great news on what's happened in the Middle East.
Israel, the army, is in a hospital
where they're finding munitions up the wazoo,
communications equipment,
vests, all kinds of stuff,
while some in the media say,
yeah, but that doesn't prove.
It's so weird to watch, ladies and gentlemen.
That doesn't prove.
Really?
Up next.
The geopolitical.
This is the one
only investors' edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit
that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch
than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly
is a game-changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold,
there are thousands of men out there
more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25
percent off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John,
comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the
premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your
next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The
Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to...
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the Gester's Edge.
With Gary Kaltba.
Okay.
Number one, Biden meets with Xi from China.
They have this meeting.
He does a press conference, and he pisses off his own people by calling Xi a dictator,
which, by the way, he is.
But you're trying to get.
diplomacy, you're trying to get to the point where, just so you know, there's 1.5 billion people
in China, just so you know we're the biggest economy in the world. They're number two.
Imagine if we can get our act together, even though the guy is a dictator. And what do you do?
You piss him off. And China's already jumped after him on that. Hopefully it doesn't hurt anything.
imagine if we're able
you see
I keep hearing too many politicians
whining and complaining about China
they're the devil
the government's the devil
they're this bad they're that bad they're this bad
that bad that is correct
they're not wrong
instead of antagonizing
why I try to affect
change
if I was president
my conversations would be we're a 25 trillion dollar economy you're a 17 trillion
economy the third biggest economy in the world is japan you know how big they are
four trillion so let me tell you what our issues are you tell us what our issues your issues
are and let's find somewhere and let's freaking work together
For economic sake, because if we can, they have 1.5 billion people there.
We're a $25 trillion economy.
But no, all we keep hearing from our politicians is the other devil.
And let me, you know I've complained about them.
We'll see how it plays out.
I have to mention one other thing about Biden and I have never been one.
You know, this started, the day he became president, they were after him about his age
and how he walked and whatever.
But I will tell you,
in the last six months,
he has definitely lost a bunch of steps.
And I was just thinking to myself today,
there's no way.
This guy's got five years of president.
If he wins the election,
and don't think for a second he can't.
Anyway, just letting you know what I'm saying.
So Bin Laden,
Oh, George Sano's just letting you know, prediction.
He's going to be expelled before Thanksgiving.
He's gone.
That fraudulent yutz.
What a moron.
And by the way, he'll probably go to jail too.
Bin Laden wrote this letter, I guess a year or two after 9-11,
blaming us.
And I guess it got in the hands of the TikTok or whatever.
and you got people, young people, videos,
now I understand why they did what they did.
What?
How freaking stupid can people be
to believe a terrorist that lived to murder,
anything, anybody, anywhere,
in the most barbaric fashion, barbaric fashion.
Oh, that's right.
They're praising Hamas.
My bad.
I got to tell you, I don't know what's going on out there.
I don't know where all this came from.
I, you know, I've studied the Holocaust and going back.
And you always knew that there are people that hate Jews are racist.
People are racist against blacks, Hispanics.
They're just people that are racist.
I never thought, and it's still a minority.
The people you're seeing are just loud and out there.
99% of us are still just doing our thing.
I'm amazed to see what we're seeing.
And we have to find out what these ass clowns
at these colleges and schools are teaching.
And yeah, they're ass clowns.
and I'm baffled by it.
The occupiers of Gaza is Hamas, not Israel.
Israel left.
Gave the keys.
Hamas destroyed the place, stole all the money, left the people for dead.
I saw some interviews this week.
The media was there, the bad media, from there, interviewing people,
and they thought they were going to complain about Israel
and they complained about Hamas
and they walked away from them.
I got news for you.
Most Palestinians
pray that Israel
comes in and takes over.
I know this whole thing about
Palestinians dying.
Yeah.
When you have the terrorists
hide there.
But we're also finding out Hamas is killing
Palestinians that try to get away. They're shooting them dead in the streets. So I don't know how this
happens, where this comes from, but I guess it comes to the point. Some people are just insane.
Roger Waters from Pink Floyd basically said, Hamas had to do what they had to do. He's been a Jew
hater forever. I don't know where it comes from to take a group of people and put him in a corner and
say they are this is just sickening to me. We have lived and I taught my kids. It doesn't matter.
Race, creed, colored, gender, denomination, young, old, fat, skinny, tall, short,
everybody should be treated the same as long as they live with the rule of law and they don't
beat up on people. You don't like bad people. But I guess that's asking. That's asking.
a little bit too much these days.
Select group of people,
hate in their mind.
You see what happened at the Democratic National Committee building yesterday, last night?
One side destroying.
Guess which side?
We'll keep you up on it, ladies and gentlemen.
I think a decent day today.
But it is a mixed bag.
Just remember that.
You'll have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home to like we do.
Simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
You will feel better.
They will feel better.
And if you can and able, try to do something for somebody you need absolutely nothing from.
Peace out all.
Until tomorrow.
Bye, bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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