Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - NVIDIA [02.22.2024]

Episode Date: February 22, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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loyalty program subject to terms and conditions. Visit the prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is February 22nd, 2024. Hope you're having a good day. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, Taxes, deficit spending, scams, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it.

We do it a little comedy injected. We haven't had comedy as of recent after what's happened and still going on in Israel. The hostages are still being held. Some of them dead. Well, we got a bunch of miscreants, the latest AOC all worried about. Other things. How dare they go into Gaza and try to get their hostages? but we'll do that for another day.

And of course, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you should. Just go there and put our name in. And you can email me. All you got to do is be nice. It's very simple.

You've got to be nice. And if you email me with a fake email address, you're meaning. You're meaningless. Apple. We're going right into markets, and why do I want to talk about Apple? The stock has done nothing for seven months. Its relative strength has been dropping.

Its sales have been, earnings have been a little bit better, but pedestrian. Well, I want to talk about not the Apple stock. of today, but of past years. I remember on several occasions in past years when Apple was the thing. Apple was the thing. I remember how you get corrections in markets. You have a strong NASDAQ and it drops 5%.

And it looks ugly. Or maybe it drops 8%. uglier, or maybe a normal correction of 10% with talking technology, NASDAQ types. Well, all it took back then, and this is true, Apple would report earnings, they would be gangbuster, and then the next day, the NASDAQ would gap up to 3%, and all would be forgotten, and a low would be put in for the NASDAQ and the technology arena. You do know why, if you've been watching the market today, why I bring that up.

Nvidia. So they report last night, and we knew the numbers would be good. We even knew that they would beat the number. The earnings were gargantuan versus the number versus last year versus the quarter

before. The guidance was damn good. The talk from the CEO was, I just have to rate it a big wow. All the talk of the potential of what

this can mean. Now, we don't know the future. Anything's possible. We don't know what the big leading stocks are going to be next year, the year after. We don't know what medical breakthroughs are going to show up. We don't know what great technological advancements would show up. You know, they say the only thing we know is death and taxes, but really it's death taxes and the maniacs in D.C. putting us more in hock, but I digress. Coming into today, it was getting a little icky in the technology arena,

nothing untoward, but we had some distribution. And what we mean by distribution is heavy volume selling days. In fact, we had a doozy on February 13th, and we had another doozy, Tuesday. Today's Thursday. Nvidia pulled an apple. It's the best way I can explain it. Nvidia pulled an apple. The NASDAQ gaped up and boom.

And all is forgotten, maybe. Stocks that gave back 3, 4% over a few day period, gaped up 3.34%. Stocks that were teasing breakouts out of beautiful flag patterns, boom, right back into the highs. NVIDIA finished up today. $110.10 to $7.85. Open the day, ramped for five minutes, sat the rest of the day, and then towards the close, got a little bid. Tomorrow, have no clue.

all we can tell you is that big breakout at 505 dang that we handed to you and i'd like to say a silver platter but shouldn't that be plutonium platinum or whatever diamond platter it lifted up facebook Microsoft, Advanced Microdevices, Broadcom, and the like. We have no idea what happens tomorrow, but really good day today. And interesting enough, wait a minute, what does Home Depot have to do with Nvidia? Because that was up seven today as it breaks out of range. A little range The broad market

Had a pretty good day Notwithstanding a few Icky things But who cares about the icky things When things are doing what they're doing So just letting you know We can't wait For the next chart pattern

That looks like NVIDIA They don't come around And as you know We've sold down a little bit On the way up And it has me looking at my wall has me looking at my wall. Why would I do that?

Well, we've made very good money on Nvidia. Our original purchase was gone from 505 to 784 since January 8th. Why am I looking at my wall? Let me read some quotes. From the same man. Stanley Drunken Miller, one of the greatest hedge fund guys in history. Worked for Soros.

A very short quote being, I like putting all my eggs in one basket and then watching the basket very carefully. That's one quote. The longer quote, I've learned many things from him, George Soros, but perhaps the most significant

is that it's not whether you're right, or wrong, that's important. But how much money you make when you're right, how much you lose when you're wrong. The few times that Soros has ever criticized me was when I was really right on a market and didn't maximize the opportunity. Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage, which we don't do, leverage, by the way. As far as Soros is concerned, when you're right on something, you can't own enough. Yet your handsome and buffed host sold some down.

Left me with less than my biggest position. I had tremendous conviction on this. We still have the position from the original. But as we've said to you on this show, what we do is a learned lesson every single day. And we're going to remember this one because we're doing just fine. But man, oh man, oh man, if I had a 25% position in NVIDIA, I'd be a lot happier. Up next, more on this. Lots more.

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum. Hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script. where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach kick every day.

Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Reese's peanut butter cups. They go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you. Hello.

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OnDec does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

So notice, and we don't do it often, In real time, we're explaining our own little machinations. Is that a word? Yeah, it's a word. Because, man, if you have a 25% position on something that's up 50%, that's 12.5% for the year, which is not even in the third month. Now, we also have Facebook that we're up 40% on. The good news is we sold it down, but only after it gapped up.

But still sold it down and looks ready to break out of a flag pattern. And we didn't have as big conviction on that as we did on NVIDIA. Anyway, the story is pretty simple. The last four-quarter sales of NVIDIA. 7.2 billion, 13.5 billion, 18.1 billion, and 22.1 billion. So from the ending April quarter to the ending January quarter, they tripled revenues. From quarter to quarter, their revenues were almost up, well, let's call it about 80 to 90 percent, quarter over quarter. That's amazing.

Amazing. And I must tell you that I'm kind of sort of thinking part of my selling down, it's all on me. And by the way, this is a bad, a good problem to have. But I read a few too many that was saying how there's no way they can keep it up. no way on the numbers. Heck no, on the numbers. Well, guess what? On the numbers.

NVIDIA shot a certain finger back at those. Anyway, just letting you know in real time, how, what a great technical stock pick breakout we handed to you. but also, hey, I would have loved to have a ton more than what I have right now. And there's your story. Now, we were asked all day by people we don't even know. Where do we think it's going? The answer is, we don't have a freaking clue higher to what beats the hell out of me.

volume was almost double the average today. On a technical basis, it held the 21-day moving average at the close yesterday, gaped up today. It's in new territory each and every day. Well, today, and we go from there. Where does artificial intelligence end up when all is said and done? Again, I have no idea. I've been reading more and more about it.

My expectations in the medical field and other technology applications, who knows? Who knows? All I know is the market loved what they came out with and what they said. Not just for Nvidia, but they appalled the market. today. And as we did our scans, I don't have much bad I can say to you. Continue to not own gold miners still in a void. A lot of the oils still in a void. Even China's bouncing a little bit better, but I'm not so short duration, but better, and maybe even turn the corner. solars are still in a void.

We do believe uranium stocks have topped out and they were strong, but any of you own any uranium, doubt it. And we'll just follow the bouncing ball on a daily basis. And when right, try to let them run. and by the way I don't really mind that I sold down that much but then when I read Stanley Drucken Miller I tend to mind a little bit and by the way I hear like 15% of his assets are in Nvidia

that should have even given me more confidence so a little bit of our stock picking prowess and the mind of Moa. And what Tamar brings beats the heck out of me. AmD had a good day today because of it in sympathy. Facebook had a good day today in sympathy and looks like it's ready to break out of this flag. Microsoft had a good day in sympathy. Broadcom had a good day in sympathy. Super micro. I mean, holy crap on that stock. Remember the blow off top went from 172 to 700 in two days. It's back to 975 in two days. Off of Nvidia. How do you play that one? Beats the hell out of me. No thank you very much. Earnings to come. There's some more things.

I see a name I've been interested in getting whacked in the aftermarket. Mercado Libre symbol M-E-L-I closed at 1817. I got it at 1,110 in the aftermarket, and it was breaking out today. I think booking holdings, another name that was breaking out today. Closed at 3,900. I got at 3720. That's why we don't buy stocks right before their earnings. No, thank you very much.

Wow. Those two are quite interesting. But we just wanted to start the show, comparing Nvidia's reaction by everything to Apple. What else? Japan is finally back to the old highs. You ready for this? Of 35 years ago.

How can that be? Well, it took 35 years to get back. Interesting enough, I keep hearing Japan's like in recession. How could that be? Up next, we'll expound. And then some news. This is the one only investors, Ed. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,

the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health. with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just, like, chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat,

and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that, generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're rees.

What was I going to do? Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow. That had everything. Rees. Suspense.

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On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just. on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And walk once again to Investors Edge. So the Japan NICA All-Time highs. I do believe it went from 35,000,

maybe down to 10,000. Japan NICA chart. about to take a gander. Let's look at the max chart. Yes, back in 1989, it hit 38,915. The low, is this about right? 8,400 in October of 11, and is finally back to the highs. So no gain in the niquet. in 35 years, but definitely on the comeback, definitely on the comeback while they're in recession. And of course, the Japanese government I hear owns a ton of their stocks. How much does the Japanese government own of their stocks? market. Let's see if that comes up.

47 trillion yen worth of Japanese stocks. I'm not sure how much that is, but I'm about to check it out. 47 trillion yen to the dollar. $312 billion,

$268 million. I got to believe it's more than that, by the way. That would be my guess. Well, good to see. I also have to make note there is something called the EFA index

that hit new yearly highs that's Europe, Australia, and the Far East. So just letting you know that would be a chart breakout if it decides the stick. I believe the symbol is EFA. And by the way, for Japan, there's something called the EW. But you can look at, by the way, we're not advocating, buying, selling, shorting or covering.

Toyota Motor, New High. You got a few Japan banks. MUFG, I believe is one. SMFG is one. NMR is one. That's no Murrah. And I believe they're all at or near New Yearly High. So Japan.

Next. I have absolutely no clue what happens tomorrow. Just letting you know. But a very nice day today and adds to the potential of more. Best way that I can explain it. Adds to the potential of more. Make any sense?

And what that simply means is the setups, the strength, the fly in the ointment, I hate that cliche. The worry, forget the cliche. Sentiments still very much at the extremes. Very, very much at the extremes. We like everybody bearish. You know how we tell you when everybody goes one way on a football game? We'll just close our eyes and go the other way because most gamblers lose.

that's what we mean by sentiment. When everybody's bullish, we tend to get a little bit on the worried side. Again, tomorrow, we don't have a clue. But it was an Nvidia day that acted like the old Apple days. Simple as that. And I remember those Apple days well. Do you know why?

Because I remember a couple of them that I sold down because the market was croaking and then it gapped up and I would curse Apple for gapping up out of nowhere. Hey, in the news, my phone was down today,

my cell phone for five hours. Don't know what happened, AT&T. Beats the hell out of me. I was down, even though they said it wasn't Florida, but I surely was down. down for, I think, to about 1 o'clock. But I found out, thanks to somebody on TV, just so you know if that ever happens again,

and you have an iPhone, you go to settings, you go to cellular, and then you click on Wi-Fi calling and just press the on. And you can call through your Wi-Fi. I had no idea to somebody on TV was on, I believe was on somebody with Fox business, and, hey, I was working again, but that was five hours later. Also in the news, while I mentioned the AT&T, and I think there was some others, and the talk of it, how did it happen? And you know what the worry always is, right?

Somebody doing it. Somebody causing it? Well, let's hope not. We don't want that to occur. Niki is the other thing I had to mention. and then there's our good buddy in the White House. Remember what they've been telling us. Oh, they can't do anything about the border without money from Congress.

Well, now they looks like they may be doing some executive orders. And you know what those executive orders are? The rules and regs they got rid of that Trump put into place that they now want to put back like stay in Mexico like you come in that way you're deported immediately what a concept

a border and why would Biden be doing that right now after three years of hear no evil see no evil speak no evil in fact coming out there is no crisis by his press secretary and his homeland security dude? Well, it's almost March of 2024, and there's an election in November.

And you know what the polls are showing? That people care very much about immigration. Do you know what's happening also? You do know about the black vote and Democrats, right? Well, it seems that the black vote is very pissed at Biden and going towards Trump. And I can promise you, if Biden, Biden loses the black vote in those very important swing states, it's over. Trump's your next president.

And you know what blacks are pissed off about? Look what you're doing to our community. In New York City, they were shutting down a place where after-hour's basketball for young men and women to house migrants. So they're pissed. So President Biden may be starting to do the right thing, but for the wrong reasons. But we'll take the right thing because you're not a country if you don't have a border. That was in the news today. Are you thrilled?

And I must say also last but not least, heads be rolling. the Boeing 737 Max official is out The head of a factory making Max Jets is leaving the company You can't have doors coming off jets And bolts not being put in So I think his name's Ed Clark Leaving immediately and that's that.

That's a little bit of the news of the day. And as you know, Boeing stock, not friendly as of recent. And boy, oh, boy, have they had their troubles since those two tragedies, I believe, in 2018 and 2019. Was it Malaysia? Was it Malaysia in Ethiopia or some Indonesia? And they completely mishandled those tragedies. also. Boeing needs to get their act together.

The good news is they keep signing more airlines up. They love that 787. That's the big one. And I've flown on it. It's a real good jet. But I won't own the stock right now. Too much, what I call, on the wrist side.

Up next, and we'll figure it out. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,

who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was that going to do? Stop myself.

Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow, that had everything. Rees, suspense, reeses. On Deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps. On Deck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Bills.

Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Bester's Edge. With Gary Colt by. So let's put some pieces of the puzzle together. First off, number one, we are not telling you to buy, sell, short, or cover. We are not telling you to buy, sell, shorter cover, NVIDIA.

We're just letting you know. and we've said to this in past, we felt that it really was usurping Apple as most important stock in the market, certainly the most important technology stock. Apple's still much bigger, but it's much bigger and certainly its growth has slowed down and is not moving things like it used to. Simple as that. guess it's got more to go. I say that based on precedent of stocks and it only broke out, not even two months ago. Usually they last a little longer, usually. Technically, I don't have an area to buy. One can say, well, you gapped up today, and maybe that's something.

I don't know. It's not what we call a gap from a trading range. It was already on the move. I must tell you that let's say it never broke out. And coming into today, it was trading 480, 490, and then it gaps up. Well, then you're talking some stuff. but from here tough call but it traded well today

right out of the box strong move sat the rest of the day bought a little bit up towards the clothes the way it kind of sorter should be what you all should be doing

is reading about it I have to tell you a lot of that I read about it I don't understand I get it in the big picture. But man, oh man, when you read about technology, what? Huh? Huh?

So I'm just trying to figure it out myself. And we'll see where it goes. I still remember. I don't know what year it was. Brian Gumbull and Katie Couric on the Today Show. I think it was Brian Gumbull asked Katie Kirk. So what is this internet thing? How to be in the early 90s?

That's the guess. what is this internet thing I still remember sitting in my office and the head of HR comes in my office as she was walking around to all the offices she comes in and say just so you know we're going to start up

inter-office email that was in the 90s and you know what my reaction was what do we need that for well you can now email me I said, why can I just come to your office? She said, you can. I said, okay.

Thought nothing of it, so you never know. I've definitely opened my mind up to the possibilities versus some things that I've thought before. When the Apple came out with the iPod, I said it was another walkman. When they came out with the phone, well, I did say, hmm, this is something. did not think. And I figured after the iPhone 5, who's going to want to trade up? Well, what are we on now? 15?

And still going pretty decently, though fewer and fewer now are trading in. I still think I have my 13. I think I have a 13. And I must tell you, I have no urge to trade up again. they'd have to come out with something very baffo, very bafo for me to trade up, and I think other people probably think the same way. So AI, I'm going to study it big time, whether it's going to be the size of what I hear some people saying, don't know. All I can tell you right now, they've got some pretty good numbers.

And by the way, not just Invidia, go look at the story. super micro numbers quarter over quarter over quarter over quarter pretty damn good so we're going to do our best to learn we're going to do our best to stay on top of it and we're going to do what we are very best to not confuse and maybe i'm gonna we haven't had a CEO on in a while i wonder if i call the invidia company to get the CEO on maybe they'd come on. You know what my problem is? I'm not so sure what I would ask.

I may have to watch other interviews he's doing and then copycat. You all have a great evening drive carefully. Hope we're helping you. And when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. We should be on with Neil Kavuter, the noon hour business network. Check us out. And that said, stay well, be well. Until tomorrow, peace out all.

Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. This is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches, and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you.

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