Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - NVIDIA COUGHS [08.29.2024]
Episode Date: August 29, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
Transcript
Discussion (0)
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store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary coltbaum
straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb
and welcome once again to investors edge i'm gary coltbaum your host a thanks of being with us today
glad you here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it is uh thursday august 29th
2024. And this is serious talk on everything that affects you. And we mean everything. We'll talk
markets, the economy, your job, your industry, employment, taxes, proposals from the Morlocks,
debt and deficits, and corruption, and crime, and you name it, we shall cover it without any
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ulterior motive, and we mean
that big time.
Ladies
and gentlemen, and if you
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you know, just
be nice.
Today,
I am going to be
the king of Segway.
I really wanted to start with something else,
but I think I'm going to start with something that everybody's talking about in the market
and where I stand on it because, as you know, we've made serious coin on it,
and as you know, we do not own it as they came into their earnings report yesterday.
That would be Nvidia.
First off, let me tell you what was said about NVIDIA today.
A mic drop moment, stupendous, amazing, unreal, unbelievable.
My favorite one, though, was the mic drop moment.
Ladies and gentlemen, the mic drop moment on NVIDIA was a year ago.
when their earnings went from
to up 400%.
This is not a mic drop moment.
This is something from people
that are holding on tight
in hoping it keeps doing
what it has been doing
and maybe it will.
We don't care about opinion,
not a lick.
The only opinion that ever matters to us
is the market's opinion.
What is that stock?
What is the sector?
What is the market?
What is the country?
What is the commodity doing?
And is it snatching money out of your wallet or putting money into it?
That's all.
I can sit here and go back and forth on what NVIDIA reported.
I'm not.
I'm going to give you the broad strokes on what they reported and then tell you what the stock looks like.
Simple as that.
Earnings decelerated from monstrous numbers.
Sales decelerated from monstrous numbers.
Decelebrating from monstrous numbers is not the end of the number.
the world, but it's still a deceleration.
Margins, how much are they making out of whatever they are selling, were down a little bit
from the past.
There are some in my industry that believe that is very meaningful, but I do believe
margins can be fluid.
Their guidance was fine.
The stock was down almost 6% today, down $7.41 to $1.18 and change.
So down a little bit more in the aftermarket.
The stock never got back to the highs.
It broke back above the all-important 50-day, but today broke back below the 50-day moving average,
which puts the best way I can say it in timeout.
I don't even have to think about the stock
if it's below the 50 day.
That means it's in no man's land.
Even if it gets back above,
I think it's got to work its way.
My best guess is we're in.
Let's assume it eventually breaks out to new highs.
Let's assume that.
we think that's going to take a while.
That's our best guess.
Not 100% sure, but it's our best guess.
Why do we say this?
Well, because coming into this earnings,
it was already 10 weeks of corrective range bound
with a nice recovery off the recent little crash the market had,
but also it would be normal.
I want you to remember when we made that call on January 5th that we thought NVIDIA was getting close to breaking out and if it does it would be the five to six month range breakout.
It did nothing for five or six months.
Well, it broke out and went up almost 100% in a matter of eight, nine weeks.
You remember that right?
remember it took five to six months we're now 10 weeks already that's what I think's going on here
simple is that we don't own it we're not going to buy it as of the second we'll wait to see
whether institutions stop selling they had a chance today remember we're always a big
believer in where it was they had a chance today because early on first off
It was down nine in the aftermarket last night.
We came in, futures were up big, so they rallied things up.
They opened it up at around 120.
They rallied it to 124 in change.
Unbelievable.
And that was early.
And what happened at 124 in change?
The institutions came in and sold.
And that's what we'll adhere to.
until we see different.
Now, the one thing I'm going to call it good,
but I'm also going to call it not so good.
Volume was pretty light for a earnings day,
only 35% above the average.
It's good because maybe the selling was not vicious.
It's bad because what if there's more to come?
Nevertheless, stocks on a little defense here.
I wouldn't call it the end of the world.
Major support down and, well, it's 17 points away.
You know, it dropped down to 90, reverse to 100 on the crash day, that Monday.
We'll call 100 support.
It's at 117 and change.
You have 17 points.
to that big support. I don't think we get there unless things get really undone.
And we'll just take our time, each and every day watch it, try to get a feel for where it doesn't want to go any lower.
And that's that. What's interesting is today, while this was going on and while it was getting distributed, at one time today, the NASDAQ hit 17-789.
it was up 235 points.
Unbelievable.
Nvidia's dropping that the NASDAX's up 230 some odd points.
NASDAQ finished down 39 points.
Very disappointing.
Which leaves me believing still work to be done.
And as you know, we've been telling you the chart patterns and a lot of NASDAQ names,
ick.
Ick.
But other areas better.
The doubt today.
I do believe at one time today hit 41 57, 242, was up 485.
But finished only up 243.
Okay.
So that came in a little bit too.
Tomorrow's another day.
It'll be end of the month.
We'll see how these things are treated.
But just some wicked stuff today back and forth.
some real what I would call quirky crazy paper thin swings my job is just try to get the main
direction right and sometimes there ain't any main directions and that's where you got to take a
step back be patient leave no doubt there's leadership stocks they're strong names but leave no doubt
there's a lot of freaking weak names also but we just want to start with nVIDIA because of how many
people are interested.
If it wants to go
lower, it will
go lower in spite of all
the people that have strong buys on it
that watched it going down today
and raise their targets to try and goose it.
And in spite of a
drop the mic day.
Up next,
we'll segue.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated
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Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script.
where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could
ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist
Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept
as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach
cake every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just
have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not
something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point,
we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much
more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
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and confidence to move forward.
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our programs are designed for people who never stop.
bring the fire, APU will fuel
the journey. Learn more at
APU. APU. APUS.edu.
One sweet,
melty bite of a Hershey's bar and suddenly
I'm right back sitting on the front porch
with my grandmother on a slow
summer afternoon. She doesn't say
much, just breaks the bar in half and
hands me a piece. I open my mouth
to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to
say. And she replies with a
low,
Shh. Listen.
So we sat there.
Listen.
That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.
Hershey's.
It's your happy place.
It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
You know, I was really interested, by the way, in seeing after the earning.
after the
earnings, after the close,
Ulta Salon and
Ultra Beauty
were reporting earnings.
The stocks have been trashed.
Ultra Beauty just rallied
because of Warren Buffett
taken a position.
Both of them down again
pretty decently
in the aftermarket.
I haven't looked at the numbers
beats the hell out of me.
We'll take a look. We'll figure it out.
But we don't own
bare market stocks. It never will.
we don't believe in owning downtrends.
We know what downtrends can be.
We're also finding, ooh, symbol ESTC,
a computer database company closed at 103.
It's $78 in the aftermarket.
I hope you don't own that one.
But Dell computer in the aftermarket,
closed at 110, it's 118.
So that's up a little bit.
Dell stock is down from 1.
180 about 10, 12 weeks ago.
Dang on ESTC.
That's just a few in the aftermarket.
Okay.
Segway.
Did you see the video?
Did you see the video of what they're saying are Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment complexes in Aurora, Colorado?
Did you see the video?
It has them going upstairs with AR-15s and hacksaws hacking off.
hacking off door knobs and entering buildings.
They've been accused of violent robberies, threats,
Gambino-like threats.
Did you see the video?
If you haven't seen the video, go see the video,
and you're going to think to yourself,
Aurora, Colorado?
You know, I used to live in Denver.
Aurora is just east of Denver.
of Denver in a place called Cherry Creek.
And I'm looking at this video,
and we see videos like that in Venezuela,
in third world countries,
in Nigeria, in Haiti.
And all I'm doing is thinking to myself,
and I have to tell you,
everything I think about now that goes on with the country,
what if I was the President of the United States,
what would I do?
I had a question today,
Where the hell is the President of the United States, calling the governor of Colorado, calling the mayor of Denver, getting the National Guard and SWAT teams into those apartment complexes, arresting these thugs and criminals.
No bail for terrorizing and attempted murder and murder threats, putting them into the most harsh jail out there.
and then hold a press conference looking at every one of these other thugs that would think about doing something like this and say these words.
Yeah, go ahead.
Do you know what we got instead?
The mayor comes out and says, oh, we're not going to let this happen.
And I'm thinking to myself, what is going on?
you know when I report to you
what's happening in Oakland
about the crime
when I report to you in Washington DC
they're sending out flyers
to citizens on how to prevent
carjackings because there's so many carjackings
when I'm in New York City
and the chocolate bars
are locked up
the shampoo is locked up
the tooth bar everything's locked up
If I was President of the United States, my first official speech would be, this crap ain't continuing.
That's all.
And we would be putting the freaking hammer down.
They're already, thankfully, getting rid of some of these DAs and judges and mayors that have their own security.
but the citizens don't
go watch this video
and you're going to think it's Haiti
when you look at videos of Haiti
that's what you see
I'm not making this up
what does this have to do with the markets
and the economy
they keep telling us everything
nothing's great if there's one
family that's got to hide themselves
under a bed
or have to move
because of a criminal element
where's the vice president
Oh, she's on a bus tour and doing an interview with CNN.
So the CNN nincompoop asks,
So what ice cream do you like?
Vanilla chocolate?
Uh-huh.
What's your average score in bowling?
Uh-huh.
Good.
Good.
Hey, by the way, I have to ask a tough question.
Is that all right with you?
Yeah, go ahead, go ahead.
Go watch this video.
And ask yourself the question, where are the good guys?
They've pushed families out of the complexes.
People in their homes.
And I don't see anything being done.
And somebody's going to be murdered.
No doubt.
Somebody's going to die.
100%.
Guaranteed.
And then something get done?
I have a video of a man in Penn Station in New York City.
harassing one after the other, grabbing women's purses, and the metro authorities are sitting
there watching them and doing nothing about it. Go watch the video. And I'm just thinking,
what if I was president of the United States? Just some thoughts, a little segue. Oh, by the way,
they're putting up all kinds of gang graffiti also. Next, as we segue,
a little bit here. Dollar General. I don't know if you know this, but Dollar General was down
what, $40 today to $84. You know what they do. By the way, they have almost 20,000 stores.
I didn't even realize that. And supposedly they're going to open a bunch more, but I'm not so sure
that's happening. The stock's down from an all-time high of 260. 262 and 22 to 84. You think long
term. They tell us everything's fine. Dollar General has now come in and said that end of the world
having trouble. Up next, we'll explain. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman,
host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health
questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into
gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach
issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic
stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle
where oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut, you should
be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into
your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more
than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now
wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to
fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills
and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a
lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire,
APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.
One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch
with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon.
She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.
I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.
And she replies with a low, listen.
So we sat there, listening.
That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.
Hershey's, it's your happy place.
to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary
Colbub comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him so just another segue
uh dollar general down 40 dollars to 84 bucks down from 262 dollar tree that's another one
uh hit a high of uh 177 and 22 it's 84
And that's been crushed also.
And as you know, I believe it was Dollar Tree that said we're not only going to, we're not selling dollar things anymore.
It's got to be a dollar and a quarter, something like that, maybe even higher.
This is what we mean by thinking things through and knowing what not to own and the reasons why.
For these companies, there is the low end, and we don't say that as,
pejorative. We're explaining low end of income. And they're saying that they're, you know,
tough goings. But also, well, I mean, if the prices for everything go up, how the hell can I
sell something for a buck? I'm losing money. So we go a buck and a, I'm still losing money.
Guess what happens to the stock prices? And of course, on the other end, there's Lulu Lemon.
Now, I have to tell you, I have never bought anything from Lulu Lemon.
I know what they sell.
I can just go online right now and see what they sell.
By the way, they're offering 15% off if you do something online.
And I'm just going to click on best sellers.
And I'm looking at, if it comes up, of course, women.
and I'm looking at a scuba oversized funnel neck half.
It's like a sweatshirt with a little zipper in the middle.
$128.
What's the problem for Lulu Lemon?
Go into Target.
Find the same thing.
And maybe it's not as great a material.
I don't know.
I'm just throwing it out there.
Maybe it is.
Don't know.
I can tell you it ain't $128.
I can tell you, I'm sure it's a hell of a lot cheaper.
And I just looked at one little thing.
That's the problem for Lulu Lemon.
It's called price conscious.
What did I do with me?
I am not poor.
I am more than middle class.
I do very well.
I looked at my bill in Starbucks and saw $340 for a month.
And all I get is espressoes and breakfast sandwiches.
I have not been to Starbucks now.
I am now on day 10.
And I don't have to be price conscience myself,
but I'm sent to myself $340.40.
I have a grandson now.
I'd rather take that and open an account
and put $340 in it every month.
Ooh, that's a good idea. I haven't done that yet.
And I don't need espresso. That's number one.
And breakfast sandwiches, what do I get?
The reduced fat turkey bacon. What is it?
It's an English muffin with an egg white,
a little cheese that I don't need, and a turkey bacon.
The egg white can make.
The turkey bacon you can get a little bit.
at the store and who needs turkey bacon anyhow.
I just save
$340 a month. By the
way, that's a car payment.
These days, not so sure.
Imagine people now
looking at these numbers.
If I am,
what are others doing?
Catch my drift.
This is how we think logically
about, damn, I don't want to own that.
I don't want to own that.
Why haven't we owned
Tesla or Rivian or Lucid or any other electric vehicle stock.
They can't give them away, even with $7,500 from the taxpayer.
They tell you it's from them, the government.
No, it's the taxpayer.
So I'm not going to own an electric vehicle stock.
So just letting you know what's going on, though.
insurance stocks are relatively strong.
Now, they're not going to light up
like a pinball machine like tech
and higher beta stuff.
I just read Allstate.
I'm pretty sure it was Allstate.
I got to double check.
Somebody is raising auto insurance
or home insurance in California,
34%.
Allstate.
Home insurance
is set to increase home insurance
in California by 34.1%.
percent. Oh, all state stock is in New Yearly High. How about that for some education from
your handsome and buffed toast? By the way, all states in an all-time high. And of course,
these insurance companies have you buy the you-know-what. And in some states, there's only like
a few people, insurance companies are leaving. What else is New Yearly High? A progressive
auto insurance. So here you have companies.
companies that are charging too much either on the high end and the low end, companies that are charging too much, but you have to get it.
Now, if you own your home outright, you don't have to get home insurance. I don't know if you know that, but then you're risking if something happens.
But if you have a mortgage, you have to have to have home insurance. There you go. So that's how we look at,
the logic of what and whatnot and the wise.
And maybe electric vehicles will have their day in the sun again.
Maybe the dollar stores will have their day in the sun again.
Maybe Lulu Lemon will have the day in the sun again.
Or Alta Salon.
But all I can tell you in real time right now, something up.
And that's how we roll.
Another little segue for the peeps out there.
And of course, I can go to the big banks right now because what are they paying in cash at your banks right now?
Half percent.
But money markets are five.
So they can take your money at half percent, take no risk, and buy a one-year treasury and get four and a half five and make four points on your money.
Because they're so sweet the banks, right?
Guess what the bank stocks are doing?
You got it.
Again, a little bit of logic goes a long way.
and of course watch the stocks why because things always change markets are fluid the economy is fluid
people are fluid with their needs with their wants and all that fun stuff you can look at airline
stocks and look at spirit airlines that looks like it's just ready to go buy-bye but others not
necessarily strong, but you can tell the difference.
And by the way, our great government
stopped the JetBlue Spirit Air merger.
And this is not a prediction, but
I'm just looking at the Spirit Air stock.
It's acting like,
see ya.
I'm not saying that's happening, not to scare you anything.
But I would not be surprised if one day they just
and then maybe the
government that the all know all seeing all believing doofus is will okay go ahead merge
pick it up and of course the stock has gone from 17 to 260 so knocking out the merge
screwed the shareholders too hey thanks mr and mrs government ain't i segueing a lot today
well guess what we're not done with the big segue because there's an interview tonight
Ain't that great?
And Donald Trump.
For you people that love him, I have a message.
This is the one only investors' edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist,
Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live.
with stomach issues, we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach
ache every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you
should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Success starts with your drive.
An American Public University is here to fuel it.
With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the sky.
skills and confidence to move forward.
Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,
our programs are designed for people who never stop.
You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.
One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch
with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon.
She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.
I opened my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.
And she replies with a low,
listen.
So we sat there, listening.
That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.
Hershey's, it's your happy place.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culpe.
So a farce of an interview we'll have tonight.
I don't know when they're taping it.
It'll be a farce.
If the interview is not antagonistic, it is not an interview.
This is a woman that has hit herself.
Disrespected you, the voter, by not coming out with policy,
by not doing interviews, not doing press conferences,
and having our own people leak things.
all over the place about her flipping and flopping like a fish on a dock that was just caught alive.
We'll report to you on it tomorrow.
We'll hold out hope.
There's some random acts of journalism going on, but I know this Dana Bash, she's a hack.
Overrated, hack, biased, never, ever, ever gets into somebody.
face unless it's the Republican side, then every now and then she will. Again, I'll hold out hope.
And then my friends on the Trump side. So let me tell you a couple things. Number one, you know,
he's being accused of going to Arlington National Cemetery and doing photo ops. And of course,
the media is doing 24-7 on. Remember how it works. If the left does something heinous,
they don't report it.
If the right does something, just a little bit icky, 24-7, and they will ram it home.
Well, I have no idea what happened in Arlington National Cemetery.
There is a he said, she said, she said, he said, whatever.
And let me be clear, the big lie.
I don't know what the rules are, the regulations, the optics.
I got pictures of Joe Biden doing political photos and posting them of him at Arlington National Cemetery.
What?
I thought you can't do that.
I thought it's unpatriotic because Trump is doing it.
Well, there's Joe Biden with pictures posted at Arlington National Center.
Cemetery isn't that interesting.
And people in the Army even came out and lamb-based Trump for that.
They did not lamb-based Biden for that.
What do we tell you about bias and bull crap?
So just letting you know.
And again, I have no idea what happened.
I'm not saying he did wrong.
I'm not saying he did right.
But you have one of Trump's advisors calling the employee there mentally ill.
What the hell is that?
Is that going to help?
You catching my drift here?
If you are a candidate, if you're Trump in every word, everything you say, everything one of your people says is enhanced, is shown, J.D. Vance telling Kamala Harris to go to hell.
What is that?
You think you're going to win a woman's vote in rural America or urban America?
telling somebody to go to hell?
Just saying.
And a little bit more for the people that love Trump
and especially if you're listening that you can get to him.
Enough.
Have you seen the tweets?
Have you seen the social media?
As I have said to you in order to win an election,
you have got to go for every vote.
And you can't piss off anybody.
So in other words, even if you don't want to, fake it.
There's got to be a filter.
There's got to be a governor.
You know what a governor is, right?
There's none.
And as bad as she is, I think if the election was today, he's losing.
So you still have a debate and you still have plenty of time.
You better get to him.
People do not vote for the nasty.
and I must tell you
when Trump initially came out for president
I think people thought it was great
cute lovely wonderful different
I think in 2020 he lost because that changed
and now it's going to be even worse
I think the many want
presidential now
and he's still rolling
2016
think it over
think it over.
The only way to learn is by thinking it over.
Go look at some of the things he's posted.
It's sheer insanity.
Forget policy.
Do you know a lot of people aren't going to vote on policy?
You know what they're going to vote on?
What did he say?
That's what we mean by an election and measuring it and knowing it
and trying to win it.
Just my segue,
ladies and gentlemen.
And we move on to what's hopefully not a cold open
for the new season of Saturday Night Live
tonight's interview
with the Vice President of the United States,
who I call a miserable failure,
and yes, was the Borders are.
In spite, I saw a CNN Dolt yesterday
she's not the borders are
I'm like why don't you just become the attorney for the DNC
like we can't see
we can't hear
that's them treating us like we're idiots
and like we're not paying attention
pay attention
there's going to be a difference of a few trillion dollars
confiscated out of the economy
versus not
I take it back
how about 10 trillion
confiscated out of the economy into their coffers
or you keeping it in your wallets
that's going to be the difference
we'll have more tomorrow
tomorrow we should be on with Neil Cavuto
noon hour Fox Business Network
check that out
and tonight I'm still in 96 degrees
should have an air condition the next week yay
when you get home do like we do quite simple
make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children
and they will feel better, you'll feel better.
I promise.
Thanks for joining us.
Be well, stay well.
Until tomorrow.
Peace out.
Good night.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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