Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Nvidia Part 2

Episode Date: May 25, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

Indeed, sponsor jobs gets you quality candidates when you need them most. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results. When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsor job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? This is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs.

Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It's March 25th, Thursday. May 25th Thursday. I swear you don't drink. 2003. Hope you having a good day. As always, we say this every time we start to show lots to cover. Today, Moore, lots to cover, accentuated lots to cover. As you know, we do markets.

We used to do 100% markets, and then the Morlocks took over, and we had to start talking about them. If you don't know who the Morlocks are, you may want to just look that up. You know, it's going to be reported today that the Dow was down 35 points today. In case you didn't know, the Dow was down 35 points today. But, Nvidia finished up 74 points today,

the $379. This is a almost mega, yeah, I guess you can call it a mega cap name. that was up give you the exact percentage on the day 24%. Now I will tell you I have seen throughout the years plenty of stocks gap up on earnings 24%. I don't think,

or it's been rare, that I've seen important names do that and then get what we call a sympathy move like we received today that as we have stated to you on the markets recently, it is really the tale of two cities. Remember the start of that book? It's the best of the times and the worst the times.

And we have highlighted few areas. We have done segments of this show. on what to avoid, what areas to avoid. We have done segments of the show on what areas are working. It has gotten to be a more narrow areas of working side. Well, the areas that were working, the good got gooder today off of this NVIDIA news, the bad get badder and we're going to do that

right at the outset but first have any of you ever had a pinched nerve in your back just so you know I'm like quite medical in that I know things and you know from just my lower back

you know from my tennis days has always been a little. I tweaked it a week ago, but nothing bad. But then I started getting some sharp. Today, it's like a knife. And you can tell it's not a muscle.

It is a nerve. And I don't know what to... I read ice then hot. I do not take painkillers, so that ain't happening. And I guess I'm on an airplane tonight. driving what's a Sunday from North Carolina, New York. Gee, I can't wait.

Anyway, I have been gingerly moving around my office today. Scott. And I got to tell you, I take pain pretty easily. I'm not one of those people that, you know, I don't feel pain. But have you ever heard of those people? It's crazy. Anyway, but I'm pretty good with pain. I was cringing several times today as I moved a different way like a knife in the lower left side of the back.

So hopefully I'm just going to try and rest it, do whatever I got to do. And it goes away. Dang, was it a rough day? Okay. If you do not get this show in your city, go to GaryK.com. You could also follow it on the Twitter feed. I'll post it there. If you don't follow me on Twitter, go to Twitter, put my name in, or press it at garyk.com.

You can email me, just be nice. All you got to do is be nice. Not like the person on Twitter the other day that said, I support sexual predators. No, really. Somebody said that. Anyway, people are weird. So, the market wrap is brought to by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers.

no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. With his proprietary indicators, go check it out. Investment-Models.com. When I do my webcast tonight for my peeps, and it's not just individuals, but we have hedge funds, mutual funds on there, I'm going to let them know that the oils, I'm going to mention the ETFs, X-L-E-O-I-H-O-H-O-H-O-H-O-P in a bearish phase. And when I use bearish phase, really bare market but differing levels.

Retail, the X-R-T-R-T-R-T, B.H. bearish phase. The XME metals and mining. Baris phase. Steel. SLX. Barish phase. Materials. XLB. Barish phase. XLF. The Big Banks. KRE. Barish phase. Biotech. BBH. Ibb BIB. BIB. B.I.B. B. B.I.B. B. B.B. B. B.S. Fays. Golden Silver. G. D.S.L. S. Small C. W. W. W. M. D. RU.S. B. B. B. B. B. F. S. H. S. S. health care, XLV, bearish phase, XLP, Staples, bearish phase, utilities, XLU, bearish phase, XLY, industrials, bearish phase, China, FXI, CWEB, KWEB, bearish phase, emerging markets, bearish phase, that's EEM, the transports IYT, bearish phase, and some worse than others. And when we say bearish phase, they're not going up. They're trending down.

some trending down sharply, some trending down not so sharply. And then I'm going to show, you ready, in the Dow. There's 30 names in the Dow. American Express, Amgen, Boeing, Chevron, Cisco, Caterpillar, Disney, DuPont, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, Honeywell, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Coke, Merck, 3M, Nike, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, United Health, Verizon, Walgreens. All in, bearish phases. with Merck just breaking the 50 day. In the Dow, J.P. Morgan, I wouldn't call that a bearish phase. It's certainly not a bullish phase.

Visa just broke the 50 day. In shape, Apple, Salesforce.com and Microsoft. What do they have all in common? Tech. McDonald's is at the 50-day moving average. I think I missed one name. Oh, Nike. No, I mentioned Nike.

didn't I. Procton, Garrell, Charles, and I don't know, Visa, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21. I'm missing one. I'll figure out in a second. All bearish phases. The ARC funds, you know her, look like it was emerging from a little off lows. It's now submerging again. But with the Dow down 35 in all these areas just mentioned, NASDAQ up 213, NASDAQ 100, up 334, the semiconductor index up a whopping 212 off of Nvidia.

The software, the IGV, was up 2% and changed today. There you go. That's it. All those areas mentioned, by the way, I left out a few. and we can do individual names because in those areas I didn't mention defense stocks during the bearish phase managed care well I guess that's part of health care bearish phase just letting you know the divergence in the market got much more accentuated today and I do believe it can continue that was a monster day in the semiconductors off of nVIDia I was more impressed with the sympathy plays than just in video up next more of this and i'll figure out the 30

down stocks i'm gary this is the one only investors edge hi i'm gary call bomb hosted a nationally syndicated radio show investors edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management no big commissions just a fee on the assets that's managed we also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to

be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-559. 8-8-4-2-2-5-9. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and yeah, healthy snack.

At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John.

Comfort perfected. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion. of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum it doesn't get better than this I figured out number 30 on the doubt was Walmart and guess what Walmart just topped out pretty good

broke the 50 dead not killing anybody so as I went through the Dow there's 30 names I've got Apple salesforce.com and Microsoft in uptrends visa just broke the uptrend McDonald's broke the uptrend but still it's sitting a little bit below the 50 day I got three names in an up trend out of 20 while semiconductors software NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 while the rest of the market now let me give you some numbers here while the NASDAQ was up 214 and the NASDAQ 100 334 Advanced declines on the NASDAQ, 1,281 up, 2,930 down.

What does that indicate? You got it, narrow. On the New York, it was 2 to 1 negative. Advanced declines, while the S&P was up because of tech, and the Dow was only down 35. New highs versus new lows on the New York, 44 new highs, 161 new lows. And by the way, of those 44 new highs, take out about 20-something. On the NASDAQ, with that move today, 175 new lows,

only 71 new highs and take out about 40 names. SPACs, dollar biotechs. And by the way, you know what the strong is, while biotech is breaking down the indices, there's still a bunch of no sales biotechs that actually act okay. So we're just letting you know, the tale of two cities got more accentuated today. You got a few cars driving up I-95 north. You got a lot of cars driving I-95 south. Can this continue?

Absolutely. Now let's talk Nvidia. So let me give you one of the Colbaum rules. I did not invent it. This came to me by one of the great William O'Neill. I just added some of my own little wrinkles. And that is, throughout history, the strongest stocks were those companies with the strongest earnings growth, The stronger the better, the longer the better.

Longer in time. Of course, what goes hand in hand with that is sales growth. The stronger the better, the longer the better. What else under that surprises? The ability to surprise earnings, not with better than crappy numbers, but unbelievably good numbers that are better than expected. NVIDIA did that. Estimates going forward for the, by the way, their quarter that just came in.

Earnings were down 20, revenue down 13, sucked. Going forward, estimates were supposed to be $7 billion in change. For the quarter ending July 31st, they're going to be 11. And what does that bring along with it? Well, NVIDIA's chips. Guess so you, in case you don't know, Taiwan Semiconductor supplies them. Taiwan Semi today was up $10.82 to $100.95.

More chips, equipment makers. KLA 10 Corp up $25 to $434. Lamb Research up $36 to $602. Applied Materials. Got to find that somewhere. There we are. $8.74 to $130.477. Semis.

What else, though? Well, there's this artificial intelligence things, and you never know which it's going to be. Oh, one more. Monolithic Power, MPWR, up $72.50 to $488. today. That just crashed recently on its earnings report. In sympathy. But also in sympathy today, artificial intelligence, Microsoft up 12 to 325. Software. Oh, did I mention advanced microdevices, up 12 to 120? Adobe up 26. Software. Service now up 29. This is all AI. Soft. Soft.

software, super micro systems, super microcomputer, up 39 to 206. Synopsis, up 38 to 434. Cadence design, up 21 to 224. Those were the sympathy plays. There's not a ton of them, those were the sympathy plays. That did the trick. That's the story. Simple as that.

Also today, you had a bounce in the transports. You had a bounce in the housing. The housing ETFs is one of the few, the ITB that's still above the 50-day moving average, though there's been some distribution recently. Mix bag in the financials today. Mixed bag in the economically sensitive. But advanced declines and new highs, new lows were.

Again, a horror show. with the NASDAQ up 214 and the NASDAQ 100 up 334 and all these down names. So just letting you know, it is accentuated tale of two cities. Now, it's a good question to ask. So what does this mean? Well, I can tell you a few things. Normally when you get a big gap like this in Nvidia, it's going to go higher. That'd be my guess.

The only issue is it's been going higher before this. and obviously Wall Street had a feel for that. And Vindia was kind of the strongest stock in the market, recovery stock since January. Recovery big losses. Well, it close today in an all-time high, one of the few. My New Yearly High list in both in New York and NASDAQ. Oh, by the way, there were a few ETFs at New Yearly Highs. That's part of those numbers I gave you.

but I got 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20, about 32 names. Up next, more on these markets. And whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one the only investors edge. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night. And we want everyone to feel welcomed and reward. It matters that CBS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack.

At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. You're listening to. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Coltbaum. It becomes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And just to give you an idea of a few things, we get accounts transferred to us that have a bunch of stocks in them. I can tell you, I'm going to guess in the last month, I had to sell off 90% of those stocks. Either they were reporting soon or they were just breaking down.

So as the NASDAQ I-95 North, I'm sitting there selling off stock after stock as they break down. I had to sell off some, let's see, Lulu Lemon, Hershey's. Johnson and Johnson, L.H. Defense Stock, Proctrine Gamble, Philip Morris, Chevron, a bunch of these. It's weird out there, kids. We'll keep telling you what's working. As always, you get to decide. but unbelievable how narrow this is and how much more narrower became today but it can last that was some strong move today I want you to be careful on what's being said saw a lot of this artificial intelligence is just another bubble

well I got newsfea if it is they're going much higher first but the talk of that was very negative in that don't do it. We're not telling you what to do. We're just letting you know, don't listen to anything but what the market tells you. That's all. Don't listen to anything but what the market tells you. And all I know, the institutions were jumping out of one and into the other. in a more accentuated fashion today.

And I must tell you, this is one of those outlier events. And when I mean outlier, it's just things that don't come around too often. You know, normally, markets kind of move in certain ways. and it's not very often you get what we are seeing when I do my scans at night I got less to do

because there's a lot less working and when we scan we do it with absolutely no bias we never have favorites just whatever the market decides to give us and earning

Let me give you some, for instance, on earnings. After the close today, you ready? Costco closed at 486, it's 473. Decker's Outdoor, closed at 450, it's 433. Alta Salon was 485, is now 438, gargantuan drop. but workday a software name that's been recovering closed at 196 it's 213 Marvel semiconductor closed at 49 it's 56 I'm even gonna give you the gap that was a seven to half dollar stock it's eight dollars and forty cents restoration

hardware two 54 24 47 so lots of jello moving on the plate. And again, earnings, anything is possible. Nobody knows. No, really, nobody knows. What's going to gag and what's not? The only thing I can take out of NVIDIA, because I got asked today,

any way of knowing that Nvidia would do what it did? Well, the answer is definitively no. A better question, are there any clues? And I would suggest the one clue, which really does not add into too much, it was pretty much the strongest NASDAQ recovery stock off the recent lows.

that would be a clue but not a one plus one equals two clue it's not like it's a restaurant and you go visit it every night and there's two hour waits every night so that's the story a tale of two cities we do this with no bias the bad got better today the good got gooder the gooder the good is narrow. You had some bounces in some of the bad today. Nothing that really stands out that much. And I will continue to accentuate for you, the good and the bad. And continue to close our eyes, hold our nose and pray.

Not really. It doesn't work. So even in today's aftermarket, man, oh man, alter salon. That was at a new all-time high three weeks ago at 556. It's going to be down 50 bucks in the aftermarket. Oh, by the way, today Snowflake down 17%, 29 bucks today. Even today, while Invidia North, Snowflake South, and I can tell you, Snowflake's been one of those names I'm asked about quite often.

top five and interesting it's the first quarter they ever made money and it got slammed you never know what the market has in store ladies and gentlemen and I'm flying tonight it's a storm out yay

and my back is killing me anyway that's the story we'll be scanning the semiconductors tonight We'll be scanning leadership. Take me about five minutes.

That's the amazing part of the equation. The narrowest market I have ever seen. Now, I take it back. 99, late 99. Internet. That was quite the interesting. We'll keep you up to date daily on this. but just simple.

I'm more impressed with the sympathy moves today than NVIDE itself. Quite to quite. And we'll see what tomorrow brings as a couple, another software, another semi. We'll have a gap to the upside tomorrow and we'll see. WDY will open up at 212 tomorrow. A new yearly high.

Its old high was 308 in November of 21. Actually, that's a good one. There are some names that are still down 60 and 70%. That one will only be down 30 from 2021. How about that for Lesson Land? And going over the Dow. Tomorrow be another day. You just best, you best, be in the right areas right now.

You heard the list I mentioned. Those weren't opinions. Those were facts. Up next, hey, what's happening with that debt ceiling? And what do I think is going to happen? This is the one only investor's edge. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night.

And we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CBS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Success starts with your drive and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing career, Starting fresh or pursuing a lifelong passion.

Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. As I mentioned yesterday, Tina Turner passed away. You know how you know somebody's revered. Every top flight musician paid homage.

I mean, you go on Twitter. Every top flight musician. By the way, NASDAQ's up 21% this year. The NASDAQ advanced decline line is probing the bare market. market lows. The Dow's down 1.2% this year. The S&P midcaps down this year. The Russell 2000s down this year. Unbelievable. I'm looking at the updated, yeah, the NASDAQ advanced declines are just off the bare market lows while it's up 21%, which tells you exactly what's been going on. Oh, that was a sneeze and that hurt. If any of you smart people know what to do with, but I googled it already what to do with people. pinch nerve. And I can tell it's a pinch nerve. That's how much pain it is. I expect, this is my guess. First off, number one, we don't know if all these areas of the markets that are doing poorly have to do with the debt ceiling, though a lot of these areas, a lot of these areas have been weak for a very long while.

We'll see. my guess is that before the weekend they'll cut some sort of deal but I want to make sure you know what a bunch of bull crap it is it's all a lie and it's from both sides federal spending our government in 2000 and I'm being repetitive here spent $4.4 trillion. This is going to be $6.8. So you take out the COVID years.

We just raise the size of government over 50% from 2019. They had Biden out today. God bless his press. I could never be somebody's press secretary. They're all lying in sacks because they have to lie for the administration. I don't blame this press secretary. What's her name? I don't even know, whatever our name is.

the lies they are spewing and Biden went in front of the camera again today about how he's lowered the deficits in spending I wish we were in satellite because I used the word so I'll just use bull crap they're making Trump into a truth teller and I mean that sincerely and Trump is probably the biggest liar I have ever seen in history in history in the public domain

Biden is lapping him at this point he stands in front of the camera says he's lowered the deficit 1.7 20 every day and he knows he's lying he knows we know he's lying but he keeps saying it

and he said he's cut in spending do you know the spending this year is going to be high as the COVID years all that spending do you know he says he's great with the deficits Do you know this increase of $2.4 trillion from 2019? We're going to have a $2 trillion deficit. It's going to be in and around $2 trillion depending on which Russ the abacus you use. I've never seen more.

It's never been as bad. They get worse by the year. I watched this guy, a Democrat Coons on Fox News earlier. What a bull crap artist. And of course, the interviewer has to be respectful. I can never interview these people. I'd be throwing F-bombs at them. What they are doing to you and I, the taxpayer, is beyond the beyond. It's so demoralizing. And so much of it is waste.

You just got to ask yourself, they've spent, it's going to be since the year 2000, including all the debt, 80 trillion bucks, yet we still have poverty. and homeless? What how all is that money going to? And I can go on and on about corruption and insider trading and this and that. Forget that for a second. Let's stay on the top of the import. The republics are going to come in and say,

and do anything. They've done nothing. Maybe they'll get some work rules as part of this. They're not cutting any spending. There's no cuts. You know what a cut and spending is for DC? See? Well, we're going to tell you we're going to increase spending eight, but we're going to only do six. I'm just letting you know I'm demoralized.

I believe we have no hope. The debt bomb is coming. And you realize, again, most of them are going to be retired or dead, the culprits. The culprits are the last 24 years. Before that, it was getting bad. Clinton was a tiptoe through the tulips. And they lie. They say they had surpluses.

No, they moved the accounting. But there was a tiptoe through the tulips. Obama was a tiptoe through the tulips. Still bad, but this is getting really bad now. And it's not that it's going to be near $7 trillion. It's because it's going to go to $10 trillion in spending. And it's not the $32 trillion in debt. It's going to be $50.

And it's not that we're closing in on one trillion of our tax dollars going towards interest every year. It's going to be one five and two. The deficit this year is going to be equal or more to our total spending in the year 2000. Our government, we were warned by Jefferson ages ago. And the con artistry, boy, are they good at it. Wish I had better news. Hey, from where am we going to be tomorrow, North Carolina, From North Carolina, we'll be talking to you tomorrow.

We'll see what tomorrow brings. We do expect them to cut a deal before the weekend. That's just our guess. You have a great evening drive carefully. Hopefully I get over this pinch nerve. And when you get home, do like I do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children.

Tell me you love them. Have a great evening, everybody. Take care. Thanks for joining us. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. So what do this animal... And this animal?

And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, delicious milk and cheese.

Learn more at ovie.coop and taste the difference.