Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Nvidia Time
Episode Date: August 23, 2023garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the Biz Talk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Kalpom, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Wednesday, August 23, 2003.
Hope you're having a good day.
Hey, if you do not get to, we're just getting through it.
If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
If you don't get it there, we'll post it on our Twitter feed, which is now the X feed.
If you don't follow us on X or Twitter, go there, put our name in.
You can email me, just be nice.
No, really, that shouldn't be too hard, right?
Right?
All right, lots going on today.
Lots to cover.
We used to do a two-hour show, but I just couldn't do it anymore.
Few things I want to cover, first and foremost, the most important thing, number one.
there is a debate tonight for the Republican Party.
As I told you a couple days ago, I am in hopes, I am really in hopes that they rip the stuffings out of Biden and his lying and his corruption.
Just so you know, I have no problem with a president screwing up.
Well, I take that back.
You should have a problem with a president screwing up.
I have no respect for utter greed and corruption.
This president and his son, and his family, the most obvious thing, all the evidence is there.
I will never forgive him for that.
Besides, he's a Marxist and what he did with Afghanistan and everything else.
But tonight, they are going against Donald Trump.
They're trying to win the Republican nomination.
If any of them do not go after Trump, and what I mean go after,
Take them on.
Say what you like about him.
Hey, we like the lower taxes.
We hated the tariffs.
We like what he did with Israel.
Stop using racist talk.
He's not a racist.
Well, don't use racist talk.
And back and forth and back and forth, you take them on, big time.
If they don't, they don't deserve to be up there.
But I want to hear one thing.
if I don't hear from each of these people what they're going to do about debt and deficits in the size of government, they ain't going to have me.
Simple as that.
Just so you know, our biggest crisis is debt deficits in the size of government.
It is not climate change.
That's a scam.
That's to go after your money.
The debt and deficits, just remember, they've spent $33 trillion more than they were supposed to.
and because they got this far, it's going to 50 trillion.
It'll go to 100 trillion.
I'll be dead, but we're going to get there.
This year, it's going to be about a trillion in interest payments.
This president raised the size of government since the year before COVID, about 50%.
It's a sin.
It's a con.
Jefferson warned us more than 200 years about people like Biden, by the way, and Trump and Bush and Obama,
and the raising in size of government.
Trump was as bad as all of them.
Bush was as bad as all of them.
That's why we say to you, we're not in either party.
They all suck.
So let's hope.
I'm sure Brett Baer and Martha McCallum will answer, ask good questions.
I don't want to see the, you know, they keep talking about the moment and he's going to say this and oh, that's going to be the sound bite.
I don't want a sound bite.
I don't want a moment.
I want great policy and passion.
I don't want to hear from Vivek that 9-11 may have been an inside job.
If he says that, get the hell out of my life.
Amongst other things he has said.
We need somebody much better, much better than what we've had.
And every one of you that love Trump, God bless you.
I never have a problem with anybody's opinion.
God bless you all.
We can disagree without killing each other.
He just does absolutely nothing for me,
and I believe he's been nothing but a big gigantic con
since he lost the election
and conned every one of you into believing
he had more votes.
And he's collected a quarter billion dollars of your money for a defense fund.
to fight the election, and guess where that money went?
So I got no use for him either.
Hoping for somebody better, hoping for somebody good.
Words aren't going to do it for me, but you can get a feel for people tonight.
That'll be at 9 p.m.
I hear Trump is doing something on X with Tucker Carlson,
who used to be on Fox News.
You know, I always get asked about, did I ever,
do I know Tucker Carlson because I'm on Fox?
Never met the guy.
I've only watched them once.
Seriously.
I've only watched them once.
Just so you know from 8 to 11 at night, if professional wrestling is on, I'm watching.
I'll be watching Seinfeld, The Office, Big Bang Theory, things like that.
I just am not into the opinion people because they're just opinions, and including me.
I do radio.
I give opinions.
That's why we always tell you, do your homework.
Do your homework.
Learn. Don't take it from somebody on TV because he's on TV or radio.
I heard some, there's this joker in the, I guess he's on the right.
All of a sudden he's, oh, they're coming to get us again with the masks and the whatever
because I guess there's another, you know, another COVID, not real bad, whatever.
And I guess a college wants people to have masks.
And I guess somewhere in the acting industry they want masks.
Nobody's coming after us.
Gee whiz, doofuses.
And they act like millions of people didn't die.
Unbelievable.
I just love people.
Anyway, that'll be tonight.
And I guess Trump's on with Tucker Carlson.
It's a pre-interview.
They did it already.
And here's what I don't like about Trump.
It's going to be a kiss-ass interview.
If we had Trump on here,
I would ask him the toughest of tough questions.
That's what should happen.
Tucker Carlson's going to wipe his butt with very soft tissue,
and that's going to be the end of it.
I would be asking him every single question about why he's indicted,
go through the indictments,
ask him about this and that,
why are your friends and people who work for you
saying you did this and you're saying you not, are they lying?
I want to know all this.
Why is that so hard?
Anyway, they're going to do that and I won't watch that.
I will watch the debate, though, tonight.
Anyway, you know what happened to the market today,
the most important part of the equation?
The most important part of the equation,
what did we tell you,
what have been telling you every day
that's so important about the market?
I think just about every day.
Don't watch the Fed.
don't listen to what they say, don't listen to what they do. What have we been telling you?
Just watch the 10-year yield. That's what we've been telling you. And to a little lesser extent, oil.
Why have we been telling you that? Because there's really been one heck, not 100%, a real correlation between which way yields are going.
markets, and fundamentally what you're going to pay for mortgages and other lending things.
Now the 10-year yield, this really had a big move up.
A big move up.
The 10-year yield on, let's see, May 4th of 23 was 3.295.
It hit a 15-year high yesterday at 4.362.
You know what it's today?
It's down already to 4.198 down 1.30.
That's a big drop for a day.
So what does the market do?
Having a good day.
And part of that is when yields come down, so does the dollar.
When the dollar comes down, markets do better.
Commodities of all stripes do better.
multinationals do better. The funny part about this week, as we close the market right now,
the Dow is still down this week. But the NASDAQ has had a really good move this week,
bouncing off a nice little drop here, had another good day today. The market just closed. We're
waiting Nvidia, and I believe Nvidia is the number one important stock in technology now.
usurping, I think that's the word, right?
Usurping.
Apple, as a mover, just go look what happened May 25th.
And the question is, Nvidia is up 70 bucks pretty much in the last seven days since two analysts came out and went all in on the stock.
The question is, is that 70 bucks going to be the good?
news or are they going to do something? Who the hell knows? I don't know, but I'm pretty sure during
this show they'll come out with their earnings. We'll see the reaction. Of course, there's going to be
a conference call after and then there's the overnight and who the heck knows, but it will matter.
I expect them before it even comes out to guide again higher. We'll see. Up next, market
rap. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicate
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It doesn't get better than this.
So, to give you an idea on NVIDIA, they raised guidance big time on May 25th.
And what's interesting is the stock gapped up huge, hit 419, two days later.
That was May 30th.
There was a holiday there.
Just last Monday, it was down to 402.
So the gap did absolutely nothing, even though it raised numbers huge.
Huge.
And it has to do with the AI chips and all that.
And you can read about them.
There's been articles about them and everything they do.
God bless them.
What a story.
The quarters before that were terrible.
So they're going to come out with this gargantuan number.
earnings expectations supposed to be $2.8.
versus 51 cents.
Now that expectation came out weeks ago,
and revenues like $11 billion something to $6.7,
up like 65%.
I think they probably raised that.
The question is,
is it already baked in the $70 move here,
or do we have another move?
And if they raise it big,
I suspect the equipment stocks
like Lamb Research, KLAC, make moves, but I don't know.
And again, right now it's 403 p.m.
They'll report probably in the next few minutes.
I'll see the stock light up on a pit like a pinball machine.
The options players have a move of 9% either way.
So that would be like what?
9% would be about $41, 42 bucks.
Which is the one?
There was one the other time they had a 13%
and end up not moving a dollar.
All the options players lost there, you know what.
Because they make big bets on the move.
So anyway, 10-year yield down, oil prices down, the dollar down, good day.
Amazing.
Again, just so you know, as I speak, the NASDAQ this week is up a juicy 3.5% after the recent drop.
the Dow is down 20 points.
That's what tells you.
Just so you know, we did a webcast yesterday, midday,
and we went through the financials,
which bounced today.
They had a bounce.
I mean, they've been croaking again.
We went through retail,
which some of them bounced today,
had some more blowups in retail.
We went through transports,
bounce today, which is rails, truckers, and the like.
Airlines, some were down today.
We went through everything and how bad things were.
All the bad things bounced today because the 10-year yield dumped.
And I'll tell you we had a good day with.
And we freely tell you when we're surprised,
they really bought up some of the mega-cap tech.
and they moved them, some of them today,
almost like they were trading like a penny stock.
The news on Apple, we already knew they're coming out with an iPhone.
Somebody came out and said on TV,
well, don't you know every time they come out with an iPhone
in the two weeks before, I guess that, goosted.
Other semis had a move today, and video was up today.
They were moving other AI-type stocks.
So another good day, 3.5% in three days on the NASDAQ.
Getting back a decent amount of recent losses, pretty darn good.
But I have to repeat again, the Dow is down this week, which is quite amazing.
By the way, with the Dow down this week, I'm going to guess the S&P's up 2%.
Let me take a look.
Only 1.42%.
And the S&P is doing better than the Dow because the S&P has a bunch of the NASDAQ, big tech,
and technology and things like that.
So definitively a better day after some nauseating days, but there was still more new yearly lows than yearly highs on the New York and the NASDAQ.
But advanced declines were better.
The story, though, and I'm going to repeat it again, and almost every day, watch the 10-year yield.
It's going to tell you a lot.
And I mean that quite big time.
If the 10-year yield keeps coming down good, and I know the Fed talks on these.
got his Jackson whole speech. Just watch the 10-year yield. That's all I can tell you. The 10-year
yield. Now, I also want to bring up something else, on the NASDAQ at least. So the NASDAQ has been
the strongest of this recent move. Just letting you know if this is just a pullback on the NASDAQ,
it's normal
if
just letting you know
if
it's just a pullback on the NASDAQ
it's normal
it's normal to get 10%
pullbacks
on the NASDAQ
it's normal as normal can be
hit 4607
to 4335
shoot that's only a
about what? That ain't 10%. Not even there. What is about 7 or 8? No big deal.
So I wouldn't be surprised if we get more, but if we don't, then it's kind of sort of non-event.
Simple as that. I still haven't seen Nvidia yet. I do see it kind of sort of trying to tick up.
I got some other things reported, but here's the market wrap today, brought to you by investment
Dash Models.com.
That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man.
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Dopp 184.
Still down for the week.
S&P 48, up 1.4% this week.
NASDAQ up 215.
NASDAQ 100-239.
Some of the bigger names.
Simple as that.
Some of the bigger names.
And we got a few more.
NASDAQ types reporting after the close.
Let's see.
We got snowflakes, Splunk, network appliance and auto desk,
but the Grand Puba, head honcho, top dog, big cheeses, Nvidia.
S&P up 48, I did all over that.
Transport's up 175.
They bounced.
They've been under some pressure.
And just housing has been under pressure.
Housing related has been under pressure.
They bounced today.
Why?
Interest rates came down.
I cannot begin to tell you how important that is.
Just remember what you're hearing about housing right now
is all because of J. Powell and everything, all the distortions.
I have to tell you, I predicted interest rates going higher,
and I said because of interest rates going higher,
the housing markets, prices are going to come down.
I was wrong on housing prices coming down
because I did not account
for everybody's into
some people got two and three quarter percent mortgages
a ton of refinancing
higher rates down to two and three quarters and three percent
we're like seven to half eight percent now though today was a good day
who the hell wants to sell a house
if they have a three percent mortgage and everybody's got mortgages
just about everybody knowing oh man I'm going to buy another house
and the mortgage is seven to half
heck no up next we'll explain that and much more is the one only investors edge this message is brought to you by
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wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is
brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as
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We're listening to America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It's highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So as I tell you, there are certain things I read every day,
but I also get things pushed to me.
Great information from people.
I'm actually going to give you the name of somebody you should follow on Twitter.
It's just some people just have great, great information.
By the way, I've never met the guy.
He may know me.
I don't know him personally.
I've never met him, and I don't get paid by him.
Just let you know I feel like it's important.
I do that before I give out any name.
his name, I don't even know I pronounce his last name, Charlie B-I-L-L-O.
And I just follow him.
He's a chief market strategist for something, but they send out these great charts and this
great information that I don't have to deal with.
You know, I look at stocks and I look at earnings and I look at guidance, but some of these
companies, they do think, let me just give you what they put out.
Three years ago, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 2.98%.
At the time, the median existing home price in the U.S. was 294,000.
Currently, the 30-year mortgage rate is 7.23%, and the median home price is 440.
Now, normally, that came from him.
when rates go higher,
shouldn't that hurt housing,
but here again,
what I told you is happening.
Who wants to sell?
And in so many areas,
inventory is so darn low
just because of it.
So his name is Charlie,
B-I-L-E-L-O.
That is his Twitter handle,
where it's X handle now.
And he just,
I just, 27 minutes ago,
he puts out,
the average price of a U.S.
Tesla is now over 26,000 lower than its peak price from July 2022, a 38% decline.
I like knowing that.
It gives you an idea about electric vehicles.
So just, again, he doesn't know me.
I don't know him.
I just follow him.
I just notice he put out good stuff.
And by the way, I verify everything.
I just don't take words out of people's mouths.
I verify.
and that's pretty easy.
You just Google it.
You get a chart of the 30-year mortgage.
You go back three years.
You see where it is.
Oh, look at that.
He was right, 2.98%.
So giving you an idea of what the story is.
Anyway, good day today.
There were certain names in this market that I've even told you about,
but you couldn't buy them.
The market's correcting.
But you see they all of a sudden start to pick up as soon as the market
it starts lifting.
We're not telling you to buy, sell, shorter cover.
You had Google with the gap up, still has done nothing since.
Oracle was up four today, finished up one, because some of class action suit has moved
down.
Amazon with the gap up, filled the gap as doing nothing yet.
Adobe.
So there's some things we really like.
We don't own those just yet, because you need a market.
and the market's been correcting whether or not we're out of the correction or not we'll see
but if interest rates keep coming down that's a headwind that goes by the wayside now we wait
for nvydia and i want to repeat to me it is the number one influential tech stock in the market
at this juncture taken away from apple though apple can take it back over if if
something big occurs from here but it's so tough to move the needle now
with Apple when you're so darn big just remember stocks move because of growth
the stronger the growth the better apples had no growth in the last three
quarters in sales 380 billion in revenues is tough to grow that's why I tell you
Walmart's a miracle. Do you know Walmart does about a 600 and something million billion dollars in
revenues and sales are up 6% last quarter? I don't know how the heck they do that. And just so
you know, they have competition. It just tells you they know how to take care of their peeps.
And maybe they took some business away from Target. You know, targets had their own issues
that I got to tell you
Target sales only down 5%.
They're down 5%.
Not that bad, but Target stock has been absolutely trashed.
And message to target.
Dudes,
you've got to know who your clients are.
You can read about what they started selling there,
and of course you get to decide.
And it's not even for me to decide.
It's what the masses decide.
And the Bud Light, man, man, man, man.
By the way, that's still going on.
I was at the supermarket the other day.
I was asking about it.
It's still soft.
Still soft.
And the other beer, Madello, Mexican beer, now the number one beer.
So very simply, ladies and gentlemen, if you own a business, know your customer.
Don't piss them off.
So that's today.
Good day.
Big indices still trading below the 50-day moving average.
The Russell was even up a little bit today.
The Russell's been really weak.
I have to mention the financials.
They were up today.
But man, oh man, one still has to question a wee bit.
By the way, Citigroup, the Dow was up 184.
up six cents today. Bank America was up one cent. J.P. Morgan finally was up a buck, and that's the
strongest of. And I don't know what the outcome on these banks are, and I don't know if there's
another Silicon Valley bank to occur. What I do know is stock prices. And stock prices usually,
usually say something. And city groups trading below where it was.
during the debacle of Silicon Valley when they cracked everything and can rally six cents that a bank
America is getting close now we do know they have losses on the books from those long bonds
but haven't they already been saved weren't they backstop by a Fed that's broke oh they can just
print more we'll see we're just letting you know the financial group except maybe for a Berkshire
which is, I would say strong.
Interactive brokers, I-B-K-R, strong.
But after that, maybe there's a couple others that I don't see.
Everything else, toast with some way, way down.
So stay tuned on that.
And we have some friends that know some banks and are in banks
and we speak to them and they tell us what the stories are.
And we don't even need to hear from anybody.
We know what's happening with mortgage rates than not getting as much business.
IPOs for the investment banks, not a lot.
Secondary is not a lot.
NVIDIA is up, here we go, it's bouncing.
I got it up 30 bucks in the aftermarket.
So it's on the move.
I gather they raise numbers.
I take it back.
It's dropping back down.
Yeah, they blew away Wall Street estimates.
They came in a $2.70 a share when they raised estimates to 208,
and they raised estimates in sales 11.19, and they did 13.51.
But interesting enough, it's falling back now.
Now it's rallying up.
Hmm. We'll see how it plays out. That's a big number. I got it up $19 in the aftermarket right now. Up next, we got one more segment. We'll see how it goes. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with,
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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
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meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
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at spreeker.com.
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for less than you expect.
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closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
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Investors Edge.
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And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So,
NVIDIA just beat the pants off of the number.
And just so you know, that's a gargantuan raise of a number.
I got the stock at 502, now up 30 bucks in the aftermarket, which is about 7%.
What we tell you, estimates were to be up or down 9%.
Also, the CEO comments,
comments leading enterprise IT system and software providers announced a partnership to bring
Nvidia AI to every industry that can't hurt either so I'm noticing just giving you an idea here
Microsoft's up five bucks in the aftermarket you know some of these things are on the move
that's how it goes Facebook is up
three bucks in the aftermarket.
And tomorrow will be a decent day as we open.
If nothing changes, those are just big numbers.
And as I said to you, it is the most important technology stock in the market,
taken away the throne, usurping the importance from Apple because of this AI.
And we'll see where it takes us, where it goes.
By the way, it's now up 510 in the afternoon.
market make that 39 bucks in the aftermarket so now we're at the almost 9% the option players got it
right semiconductors are up strong in the aftermarket tomorrow i can promise you that and there you
go lamb research got that up now in the aftermarket these are the equipment guys i got it up about
five bucks i got klac up about three bucks so on the move
And there is your big story for tomorrow.
Dang, those are big numbers.
Artificial intelligence, one name.
And remember what happened May 25th?
Kind of sort of the same thing happened,
and we'll see how it opens tomorrow.
There's a long evening to go.
But that'll be a start.
And let's see, I'm looking at the SMH.
That'll be back above the 50 day on the open tomorrow.
Just remember, these things have been clonked recently.
they're just getting back some of that move.
And again, whatever I tell you now can go lower or go higher
depending on how the market takes it.
It just dropped back $10.
Look at me.
I'm the reporter.
And that's your story.
We always get asked why I talk tech more than anything.
It's led the markets up and down.
It's the best way I can explain.
it. Technology stocks have led the market up and down forever. Semiconductors in a very big way.
Why? It's in everything. It drives the bus. It drives productivity. And you never know what's next.
I don't know if you know this, but if you go back into the 80s and 90s, you had names like New Bridge Networks, Ascent Communications. They were all bought out by
bigger companies. These are all networkers and connectors and this, that, and the other thing.
And look at the speed we have now. You remember how we used to dial up on internet?
Remember the AOL?
Yeah.
Now look what we got going here. Do you know why? These companies.
And who knows what's next. I have yet to use AI and everything I do, but everybody who tells me, geez, I can write papers, I can do this and I can do that and I can do that.
and I can do this and I can do that.
And the medical part about it,
you ready for this one?
And this is amazing.
AI optical scans detect Parkinson's seven years in advance,
according to some researchers.
With the help of artificial intelligence,
Parkinson's disease can be predicted via eye scans
within average seven years of warning,
according to researchers from London's Moorefield's Eye Hospital.
This is the first time anyone has shown these findings
several years before diagnosis from AI.
That's stunning stuff.
So who knows where this can take us and looks like this company being the lead.
I've owned it a couple of times, traded a couple of times, made money in it.
Very tough to stick with the last 12 weeks as it went up and down 80 bucks.
Now that we'll see it gap up tomorrow and see if it holds.
Just remember, depend on the market.
market, depend on interest rates, and they just raise numbers going forward also. So good stuff.
So we basically leave you with good news as we enter tomorrow. Of course, that can change overnight,
but that's the story. Yields down, oil down, good reaction of what is the number one stock right
now in technology.
And we'll see what Tamar brings.
Just remember, anything possible.
That's why we pay attention.
They can open it down tomorrow, finish up.
They can open it up, finish down.
They never said this is going to be easy.
But you find those companies with strong demand,
and you try to hold on for dear life.
Not an easy thing to do.
What did I say to you the other day?
If Taylor Swift was a stock, be the number one stock in the market.
Why?
Look at the demand.
Look at the demand.
That's what stocks are about.
What kind of demand for the business and what kind of demand for the stock.
On the other end, Foot Locker was down another 28% today to 16 and change.
from 47.
The opposite.
Which, by the way, took down some other stocks today.
That's why we're always amazed when people own crummy companies.
Greatness, invest in it.
I'll be on with Varney tomorrow at 10 a.m.
Check it out.
Fox Business Network.
You'll have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
By the way, I have not out of back.
fasm in 17 days. Hope I didn't jinx it. See tomorrow, everybody. Thanks for joining. Peace out.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get
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