Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Nvidia time [08.28.2024]

Episode Date: August 28, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's August 28th.

I believe it's a Wednesday. It's 2024. I still don't have air conditioning. It's 96 degrees in this room, but I have two. I mean, just big-time fans hitting me left and right up and down and all around. So I'm okay. And the good news is there's a storm outside, so there's no sun coming in here, but it's showing 96 degrees. Anyway, I guess I'll have some waterweight loss as we finish up here. Hey, ladies and gentlemen, we're waiting for the

Nvidia earnings that are coming out. We know everybody's talking about it, and it's the end-all, be all. We think it will affect the semis in tech. We don't think it's going to affect what Citigroup or J.P. Morgan does. We'll see a very crappy day in the market today could have been a lot worse. We'll get into that. But there are a few other things I definitively want to discuss at the start of the show today. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our Twitter feed. all the podcast apps and all that fun stuff. And if you don't follow us on Twitter, which is now X, go ahead and do that.

You can email me at any time. Just be nice. No, really, just be nice. It's always interesting when I get something like, Be Nice to Trump and stuff. We just report facts here. I'm sorry. Anyway, and we will talk markets, the economy. jobs, your job, your industry, unemployment, taxes, deficit, spending, scam, shams, corruption,

you name it, we cover it with no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive. We did not get any answer from Kamala Harris on interviewing her. She decided to do an interview with CNN with her vice president, which is pretty weird. It's going to be with CNN host Dana Bash. Never matter nothing personal. she's terrible interviewer in that she is friends of one side

not friends of the other side and there will be I will be impressed if she asks the appropriate questions and when she gets BS and you know what I mean by getting BS she follows up

on the BS that's my take when you follow up on BS you're doing your job remember what I told you here you had an interview weeks ago with Biden before he went out by the way I believe Biden

28 of 37 days since he left the campaign he's on the beach in Delaware he's still the president by the way in case you didn't know Erin Burnett who came from CNBC a brilliant financial mind interviews Biden and lets him just BS. Just lets him

BS. He said he has lowered the debt and deficits and she sat there. All she had to do was come back and say, President Biden, how are you saying you lowered the debt and deficits when we are now running record yearly deficits of over $2 trillion?

The Congressional Budget Office has come out and said over the next 10 years, it's going to go from 35 to 56 trillion, that's $2 trillion a year. Can you explain? No. She's sat there. So we'll see what Dana Bash does tomorrow, but it's going to be taped. Are they going to edit it? And you have the vice president there? Why?

What are you afraid of? But I digress. Super Micro That's what I wanted to get into Yesterday I think I mentioned this on radio I'm pretty sure I did I'm not 100% sure but I'm pretty sure I did

An outfit called Hindenberg Research Came out and I haven't read it yet But accuse them of accounting trickery And in the past Super Micro has had some issues in the past But a while back, the stock has already been the bare market, so we could not have owned it. We don't own anything in downtrends or anything in bare markets.

Today, this morning, Super Micro comes out and says we could not come out with our earnings when we're supposed to report our earnings. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. They're going to file a notification of late filing. They need additional time to complete its assessment of the designing and operating effectiveness.

Get this. Of its internal controls, of their financials, The stock was down $103 today. Was down $130 at one time. I bring that up because Nvidia's not reported earnings yet. This was one of the glamour artificial intelligence stocks. And today, I don't know if there was a cause and effect. They were smacking the crap out of technology to the point where the NASDAQ was down $198 at the close.

was down, I think, at one time today. If I am correct, NASDAQ 17439, another 17. It was down 315 at one time. Just a big wow. So I got asked the question from a couple of people today. What would you have done if you own Super Micro coming into today? Well, let me repeat again.

I didn't own Super Micro because we don't own. stocks in bare markets. Gary, how do you not own stocks in bare markets? Well, we have shown you how we don't own stocks and bare markets. We've studied tens of thousands of charts of what tops look like, what bear markets look like, what bearish markets looks like, what downtrends look like. And super micro has simply been in a brutal downtrends. Brutal. But what if it was in an uptrend? What if it was in an uptrend and it opened up today? I think that it opened up, let me get the number. 487, was down about

60 or 70. Typically, I'd give it 5 bucks and I'm out. And not think twice. Now, as you know, it was down yesterday pretty decent on that Hindenburg report, but reversed pretty much. In fact, yesterday, let's see, the day before the stock closed at 562, hit a low of 513, closed at 547, was only down 15 bucks.

But we're just letting you know, we would have been out, open up five bucks, see ya, and not look back. And we also have another thought process in the market. And this is a logical thought process. And I'm not sure, I don't think it's 100% correct. I don't think it's 100% right, but we have certain mottoes and mantras in the market. One, if somebody can't report their financials in time, I do not want to own the stock.

That would be number one. And obviously, Super Micro fits the bill. Number two, if the chief financial officer leaves for an unknown reason, I tend to worry. That's logical, right? By the way, it's thundering out. My dog's in here all nervous. Take it easy, Winston.

And he just lays down on my jacket and tie. No problem. It's pretty simple. Those two things stick out like sore thuns, but definitely the first one. And of course, you also know about the valuation thing, where we have just saved you, if you listened, oodles of money while the world has gone insane. The Trump stocks down to 20, down from 80.

The GameStop is $19.91 down from 65 recently. And we're not hearing about Hello Kitty anymore, Roaring Kitty. And supposedly his cost was, I don't know, 23 or 24. Screw him. Up next. What else we got in store? I'm Gary. This is the one-to-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you

would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-5-9. That's 888-4-2-4-2-5-9. investment advisory services offered through Coltbaum capital management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. All right. Here's a little bit of earnings of importance, if you don't mind. while I got you Salesforce.com that is a Dow stock symbol CRM

closed it 259 I got it at 262 up 3 bucks they beat handily guide a little bit above consensus the stock has been

pretty much ick hit a high of 319 in February it's a 258 259 at the close today, up a little bit in the aftermarket. I'll have to look at the numbers in a little bit, and it's in the Dow. Let's see, they came into 256 versus a 212. Yeah, earnings up 20%. That'll be a good deceleration, but still pretty good numbers.

Next, crowd strike. That's interesting. That's interesting. A crowd strike, as you know. has had that problem. As you know, they lost business. You know what happened.

And you got the Delta thing in the Microsoft. And I think there's lawsuits going on right now. Don't quote me on that. I'm pretty sure there's wrangling going back and forth on that. And CrowdStrike, who, by the way, has always been a very reputable company, the CEO very much lauded. Notice the big word. Stocks closed at 264. I got it at 270 in the aftermarket.

The high was 398. The low was 200, so it's had a nice rally off the low. Let's call 271 now. Interesting. For the quarter, this quarter, they're expecting 97 cents. Boy, it's thundering out there. They came in at $1.4 versus $70. So they actually beat estimates. Dollar 4 on 74. That's 30. Nice, but 40% earnings growth.

Something like that. I don't have my abacus out. But going forward, and I don't know if this is that bad or not, estimates for the coming quarter were 96 cents. They're going to come in at 80, 81. Revenues were to be $1 billion. They're going to come in at 979 between 980 and 984. And for the year, estimates 390, they're going to come in between 361, 365.

And revenues, they're saying only going to be down a little bit on the year. So I'm going to be very interested to see how that one goes. Interesting. Not as bad as I would have thought, but interesting also. The stock is up five bucks. I would have thought it had been up more than that. Huh. What else do I got for you?

CRM Network Appliance, that's an important name. I got it up a buck. No big deal. To 133. Five below. Closed at 78. I got it at 88. But why do I think that stock has been destroyed?

Yeah. It's gone from 216, the start of the year to 78. So it's 88 in the aftermarket. Good move. I'll have to look at those numbers. And Octa, OKTA, closed at 96, 91. Make that 90 in the aftermarket. That's another software security company.

So there's your little aftermarket I got for you. We're waiting. I don't, you know, it's 4.13 p.m. We're waiting, Envidia. And again, we have absolutely no clue what the deal is we told. We were asked 100 times in the last week, and we said to everybody, we have no clue. And we had one person mad at us for saying we don't know. And I'm like, why are you mad?

Well, you do radio and you're on TV and you don't know? That's what the guy said to me. I said, yeah, you don't know. by the way there is serious lightning and thunder just overhead here yay so anyway we're waiting on invidia the big matzer ball the big uh maha could affect things don't worry Winston Winston's going into a corner here he's all worried and uh it does matter to a certain extent and again we don't have any clue but as far as the market today Dowdown 159 was down 400 was down 400 And I can tell you it was about 3 o'clock.

The Dow rallied 100 points like in a minute. And then it just drifted up the rest of the way from there. And let's call it about nine minutes. 200 points in nine minutes to save the day. The S&P down 33, NASDAQ 198, was down 330, as we said. NASDAQ 100 down 230. transports are up 34 the socks was down 94 at one time today the socks if I can find it was down do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do it hit 5,010 50 was up down 144 finished down 94

and actually dropped into the close a little bit so we're getting we're waiting on that advance the client stunk today where's the money flow today it continues into listen carefully and we don't know how long it's going to last jp morgan was up a little bit today a pnc bank a big regional up a little bit m&t bank up a little bit berkshire hathaway that's uh warren buffett at a new high up a percent today uh just low beta type stuff today while my left screen looks like the south of and the northbound jackass. Those are all the stocks like Synopsis and Alta Salon and Reddit and Celestica and Seagate and Atlassian and HubSpot. All these names that are in their own levels of bearish phases,

bearish markets. It stays on our left screen. When they get better, we'll throw them onto our right screen. Our right screen, when it gets worse, we throw it back onto our left screen. So we really have a good understanding about what's working and what's not working. That's how we roll. And that screen was terrible today. Oils still cannot find a friend. Every attention to rally, get sold off. We had a big move up recently in oil prices off of the Middle East, right back down. They tried to rally the oil on the Middle East for a couple of days, and right back down. There are a few oil stocks are in shape. No thanks. Up next. Hopefully, in video reports and whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

to America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb It comes highly recommended

You're gonna feel better if you talk to him So I'm sitting here in my office 96 degrees Air conditioning Still not working And boy do we got storms overhead All right let's see I would be thrilled

if Nvidia doesn't do a lot on its earnings report. I'd be thrilled if it's up three bucks, down three bucks, up two bucks, down two bucks. I'd be thrilled if there wasn't a big move off of it. I'm being told it's going to be released in a couple of minutes. We'll be ready. What else do I got for you? As we stated, advanced declines, not very good. up down volume, not very good.

I must tell you, we have some things I did no selling today, but I was tempted to sell. I'm grateful that we came back some by the end of the day. We'll see what tomorrow brings. I don't know whether Nvidia does the job or not for whatever. And we'll just see how it goes. That's the thought process. And again, every now and then, every now and then, there are stocks that matter a hell of a lot more than other stocks.

In the news, we are hearing now, it's being reported that of the 120 hostages remaining, that may be only 22 are alive. and this maggot Hamas head billionaire is hiding with them while they are handcuffed. So he will not be killed. That's what's being reported. I don't know if it's true or not. But typically the reports that I've been reporting to have come out to be true. If true, boy, do I feel bad for these people that are still with the signs of Hamas. Screw them all.

In the news, as I said, Biden has been gone for 36 days since he dropped out. He's been on vacation 27. Who's running the country? Whatever. I am so upset that this is going to be a nothing burger. I hate using that. Take that back, Gary. There's no nothing burgers.

That they gave the interview to Dana Bash. I watch her interviews. They're pedestrian. They're pedestrian. And she has been biased as biased can be through the years. She's a one-sided hack. Nothing personal. And I believe people should have opinions, but if you're going to be an anchor or reporter, you shouldn't.

If you're an opinion person, listen, Fox News has opinion people. CNN has opinion people, MSNBC has opinion people. They can shout whatever they want because they are designated opinion people. What I have a problem with is anchors and reporters. The reason why I love Neil Cavuto so much is because he's an anchor and he's non-biased. He gets it from both sides. Brett Baer, non-biased, gets it from both sides. That's what I like in my anchors.

So I think this is going to be laughable. I will give her all the leeway. I'm going to blank out my thoughts, and I'm going to watch tomorrow's interview that is taped, which doubly irritates, and we shall hope. We shall hope. When she gets BSed, when she gets BS, they get called on it. And what I want to know, you know how they make TV and movies, right? and by the way if you wonder why we keep talking about this the proposals they've been calling for just obscene you know when they make tv shows and movies you know how they come about let me explain movies

when you see the final product that is the end product of testing and screening screening and testing, going through actors. You may start with one actor and not like them and go to the next actor. And then there's the character development. What do we mean by character development? Well, what they'll do, they'll put it in a bunch of front of people and they'll say, here's the character. What do you like about them?

What do you don't like about them? And then they will adjust. They'll actually adjust. adjust and adjust and then come up with a finished product and put it on screen. That's the movies for you. They'll also test the music. You know, when you watch the music, when you watch E.T. When you watch E.T.

That great music by John Williams. Do you really think about the music while you're watching E.T? No, but you're hearing it. But they work countless hours to make sure. the right music. Titanic. You think that just happened? No. That's how you make movies. Well, I'm sitting here wondering. Let me tell you what I'm thinking. Joe Biden was marketed to us for decades, for decades as a moderate. And we found out he makes Bernie Sanders into a Ronald Reagan.

That's all. Kamala Harris through her whole lifetime. Lefty left. Go look it up. Get rid of fracking. Get rid of fracking. Not necessarily the defunding of police,

but take it away and send out psychologists. Proposals of price controls. Massive tax hikes in our past. The list goes on. And now we're hearing a bunch of the opposite. She's on video lamb basting Trump on the border wall,

and now it has been leaked to the border wall. And I'm thinking to myself, we have a preparation of a movie to come out, starting tomorrow, with a complete change of the character in order to win an election. That is a fair assessment of what is going on here. And we'll hold out to see what she actually does say,

but there's nothing by accident in D.C. When it's leaked out by her advisors, it's leaked out. It's a movie. and a new character. And they're trying to figure out what character to portray. The reason why she has not been out there doing any interviews, they have been in a room screen testing her like an actor. And that is a fair assessment.

That is what I think we're going to get. I hope I'm wrong. We'll know tomorrow night. NVIDIA, not making this up. opened up in the aftermarket. Let me get this right. Was up a dollar at the best. It was down just a few minutes ago.

$9 in the aftermarket. I have it down in the aftermarket right now. $4 in the aftermarket, which makes it $6. a half dollars for the day. I must tell you, they only beat by a little bit on earnings, a little bit better on revenue. And of course, they announced a $50 billion share repurchase, the stanch the bleeding. We'll have more in that up next. On this, the one only investor's edge. We're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready. Go. Action. In The Gester's Edge. With Gary Kulpaw. All right. So, by the way, I need to go back and forth because I forgot something. I got a video sent to me, CNBC.

Joe Kernan and I forgot her name, Becky Quick, interviewed an economic advisor, Kamala Harris today. And he said, yeah, we are considering the unrealized capital gains. tax. And let me explain what that means. When you buy a stock today and you hold it at the end of the year, you turn 50 into 60. You're up 10 grand. Well, you didn't sell it. You don't have to pay a tax. They want you paying yearly tax now on unrealized capital gains. It's insanity. So they had this guy on, and I'm not going to get personal. He tried to compare it to real estate taxes, which is a user tax, which is like 1% on your house. I could not believe how ignorant of a statement this guy made.

And fortunately, Joe Kernan and Becky Quick hit him good on it. That was journalism. Good on them. Look at me complimenting CNBC. They have good people on there. There's nothing wrong with that. Stunning. So that's the left side of Kamala Harris.

Who knows what we're going to get tomorrow night? I'm just pissed off. This vice president's going to be there. And by the way, just so you know. And you may not know this. If he was a Republican, the media would be calling for his head. He has had so many lies on his life story and his military background. I can't even count them.

I couldn't even count him. But to be fair, I guess he's with the National Guard for a bunch of years, maybe a couple of decades. God, good on that. Good on that. But I can promise you, his head would have been chopped off, chopped off by the media if he was a Republican. NVIDIA is now down $6 in the aftermarket,

which is 8 and 3 quarters. on the day, which will not be thrilling for the semis and some other crap. I think I'm looking to see whether they said anything on CAPX, and I can't get a handle on it just yet, but the SMH, that's the semiconductors, is down on this. So we'll see. And as we have stated to you, what was my worry coming? in, expectations really high, and the fact that how do you keep beating 400% earnings growth?

Just so you know, they came in, I think the earnings were up 160% still, but the other way. And of course, Super Micro didn't help today. We'll see how it goes. This can change overnight. I've seen that before, but right now, a puking. We'll call it a little puking. It's down, yeah, six in the aftermarket right now. It's trading like a pinball machine.

And of course, the CEO will say a lot of good things. And the 50 billion of buyback on a $3.1 trillion market cap is a fly on an elephant's rear end. And I think that was for a little, you know, make up. let's just make up a buyback while the CEO just selling a ton of stock. But to be fair, I think he's got like 800 million shares. The dude's got coin. Anyway, whatever I tell you on video right now, it's going to change to what extent I don't know. It just moved two bucks to the upside.

There you go. It's only down five now in the aftermarket. Two bucks in 30 seconds. Yay. And I can promise you, once they get into the conference call, everything's freaking great. That said, they came out with their numbers, and they came out with their guidance. I don't know how they're going to be able to massage that too much. We'll see. There's your NVIDIA. and Victoria Secrets beat. And Victoria's Secret finally got a new person to run the joint and try to do what Victoria Secret has done best in the past. And the stock's been acting better.

We're seeing a bunch of that right now. CEOs go bye-bye. Starbucks, bye-bye. Victoria's Secret, bye-bye. There's been a few others. Tolerance lost. Other happenings in the market I thought of know today? Abercrombie and Fitch

Been a strong stock Down 28 today On the good earnings report Which means peak earnings P-E-A-K Down 17% That stock's done That stuck out

Costco been acting strong Down 20 today Failed a breakout from yesterday Welcome to my world Netflix down 14 today Failed a breakout from yesterday Again Welcome to

my world comes under the heading as I always tell you, you think this is easy? You think what we do is easy? Are you kidding? Easy left the building many years ago. They don't make this easy. That's why we work so hard at it. And keep our really good mantras. Really good mantras. When wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small. When right, do everything you can to let them run. that's the toughest part because we're dealing with the craziest of crazy markets and you know what I mean by that

think about the last few years the Fed reverse and course Christmas of 18 printing money in 19 with a strong economy COVID hitting then he comes out printing

to 9 trillion bucks creating all kinds of bubbles but also created the inflation then falling behind on the inflation and boom big bear market average stock and growth down 70%. Tomorrow's another day. All right, I think we covered a bunch.

Have a great evening, drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise I'll be on a 10 a.m. hour tomorrow. Fox Business Network with Stuart Varnie.

I wonder what we'll be talking about. Until then, radio show, same time. Peace out all. Thanks for joining us. I'm getting the hell out of my office. 96 degrees. Good night all. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.